POPULATION ANALYSIS

UNITED ARCHITECTS OF THE PHILIPPINES

Professional Development Commission
2nd Floor, LCC-
LCC-HTM BLDG., QUEZON AVENUE, BACOLOD
CITY, September 22-
22-24, 2010
EnP Mike V. Guioguio,
Guioguio, MA, MURP
Resource Speaker
 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

Population density is a measurement of
population per unit area or unit volume;

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The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CBR)
are statistical values that can be utilized to measure the growth
or decline of a population; The Crude Birth Rate and Crude
Death Rate are both measured by the rate of births or deaths
respectively among a population of 1000. The CBR and CDR are
determined by taking the total number of births or deaths in a
population and dividing both values by a number to obtain the
rate per 1000.

The Crude Birth Rate is called "crude" because it does not
take into account age or sex differences among the
population.

Crude Birth Rates of more than 30 per 1000 are considered
high and rates of less than 18 per 1000 are considered low.

Crude Death Rates of below ten are considered low while
Crude Death Rates above twenty per 1000 are considered
high.

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 Population Growth Rates

The rate of national growth is expressed as a
percentage for each country, commonly
between about 0.1% and 3% annually;

Natural growth represents the births and deaths in
a country's population and does not take into account
migration;

The overall growth rate takes migration into account;

Population at t + 1 =

Populationt + Natural increaset + Net
migrationt

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 Doubling Time

"Doubling Time," tells us how long it will take
for a country's current population to double. This
length of time is determined by dividing the
growth rate into 70. The number 70 comes from
the natural log of 2, which is .70.

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 Age--Sex Pyramids
Age

The most important demographic characteristic of a
population is its age-
age-sex structure;

Age--sex pyramids (also known as population
Age
pyramids) graphically display this information to
improve understanding and ease comparison;

Age--sex pyramids display the percentage or actual
Age
amount of a population broken down by gender and
age. The five-
five-year age increments on the y-y-axis allow
the pyramid to vividly reflect long term trends in the
birth and death rates but also reflect shorter term
baby--booms, wars, and epidemics
baby

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 Population Pyramid of the Philippines

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 POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR 4 STAGES OF
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

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Measures of Population Change

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Calculating Percent Change

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 Components of Population Growth

Population change can also be expressed

in terms of the components of
demographic change. The components
include:

Fertility

Mortality

Migration

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 Population Change

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 Annual Rate of Population Growth

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 Example

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 SHORT--CUT FORMULA
SHORT

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 Example

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 POPULATION PROJECTION METHODS

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 TREND EXTRAPOLATION METHODS
Linear Equation

Extrapolating the Population into the Future

The Linear Equation

Assumption:

The linear model assumes that population growth is growing

at absolute equal increments per year, decade, or other unit of
time. It also assumes that growth will follow a similar pattern in
future years.

When best to use:

Use when the pattern of growth is similar to a straight line.
This tool is especially useful when projecting areas experiencing
slow growth.

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 Equation (Linear)

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 Use of Linear Regression Analysis in Linear Equation

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 EXPONENTIAL

The exponential curve displays a pattern of constant, rapid
population growth. It is an arched upward curve that has no upper
limit.

Assumption:

Population is assumed to grow at a geometric rate; i.e., with
each unit of time, the absolute addition of population continues
to get larger and larger, as shown in Figure 6-
6-4.

When to Use

This method is suitable for short-
short-term projections of 5-
5-10 years
for rapidly growing regions. Note that it can produce
unrealistically high projections over longer periods of time.

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 Equation (Exponential)

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 Example: Project Population in 2012 for Las Piñas

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 Modified Exponential Model

Assumption

Population growth reaches an upper limit in the
future, at line K.

When to Use this Model

Use this model in locales that previously experienced
high growth rates and are currently experiencing
growth at a slower pace.

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 Modified Exponential Equation

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An example of the modified exponential curve is provided below. The upper
limit for K is set at 8,000 residents. It is assumed that population growth is
slow as a result of declining economic opportunities in the locale.

To accept this projection, it is necessary to study the economy of the area

as well as the carrying capacity of the land to determine if the estimate is
too low or high. It may also be necessary to study the components of
demographic change - migration, fertility, and mortality. For rural districts, in
particular, out-migration can have a major impact on population size.
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 Extrapolation Summary

It is important to identify the projection tool that fits the available
information and provides the most reasonable projection of the
future. It is a difficult task that requires investigating various tools
as well as the economic and demographic behavior of the locale.

The following suggestions can aid in the selection and application of
appropriate tools.

Plot projection results on a graph and then determine if the plot

best fits the observed data.

Use a different method that fits the assumptions of the data and
perform another projection. Do strong differences exist? If so,
determine why. Is it the data used or the tools employed? Were
there enough census takings? Was a good start date selected for
the first census period?

Check the basic assumptions of each method employed. Do the data
support the assumptions?

Examine the social, economic, and demographic trends that are
taking place. Will the trends continue in the future? Do they support
the projection?
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 Prorating Projection Tools

The ratio method projects population growth for a sub-sub-area using
population projections for a larger or parent population. A regional
projection can be used to project the population size of districts,
and a projection for the country can be used to project the
population size of a region.

Assumption

Local population change is highly dependent on what happens to the
population in the surrounding regions or states. The ratio method can
be used to project population growth for the local area if two conditions
are met: similar population patterns exist for both the locale and the
parent population; and it is expected to continue in the future.

The ratio method also assumes that a projection exists for the larger or
parent population. As indicated in Lesson 5, projections for large areas
such as a country, province, or region tend to be more reliable than
those produced for smaller locales.

When to Use this Method

Use this method for projecting the total population size for 5 - 10+ year
periods (barangay, age-
age-groups).

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 The Ratio Method Summary Equation

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 Example

Supposing the only data on Las Pinas population is 2000 population of
427,780 and you are asked to project the 2012 population of Las Pinas?
Pinas?

First Step=Get the % share of 2000 population of Las Pinas to the 2000
population of NCR which is a parent area of Las Pinas and have complete
data on 2000 and 2007 census:

2nd Step= Project NCR’s population for 2012 using the various
extrapolation methods, in this case use the exponential method:

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 Example (cont.)

3rd Step=Multiply results of Step 1 with the results of

Step 2:

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 How to Use this Tool

Use historic census data to graph the sub-
sub-area population and the
parent or state population to see if similar growth is taking place.

Collect projections for the parent population. Examine differences in

the projections and determine why the differences exist. What
methods were used and what were the assumptions?

The ratio tool has a number of advantages over extrapolation

techniques. Computation is fast; it only takes a few minutes once
the data and a reliable projection are available. Revisions are
simple, and the ratio tool can be used to make long-long-range
projections. There are, however, some disadvantages. First, like
extrapolation tools, the ratio tool does not support the study of
changes in births, deaths, and migration. In addition, it requires a
reliable projection for the larger area. Finally, it is highly dependent
on the assumed relationship between the sub- sub-area and the larger or
parent population.

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 THE COHORT COMPONENT
POPULATION PROJECTION METHOD

The cohort component technique uses the components of demographic
change to project population growth. The technique projects the population
by age groups, in addition to other demographic attributes such as sex and
ethnicity. This projection method is based on the components of
demographic change including births, deaths, and migration.

To project the total population size, and the number of males and females
by 5-
5-year age groups, find the number of people who survive or are
expected to be alive in the future. Add to the survived population number,
the number of births that take place and the number of net migrants.

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Assumption

When the cohort component method is used as a projection tool, it
assumes the components of demographic change, mortality, fertility,
and migration, will remain constant throughout the projection period.
As a forecasting tool, planners can alter the vital statistics and migration
estimates to reflect their view of the future.

Strong Suggestion

When making a 10-10-year projection, it is best to perform two separate
projections: a projection for the first 5 years and then a projection for
the next 5 years. The result of the first projection is used to perform the
second round of the projection. In some cases, planners alter
demographic rates to reflect their vision of the future for a locale.

When to Use this Method

Use the cohort component method when population projections by age
and sex are needed for 5 years, 10 years or longer periods of time. This
projection tool allows planners to examine the future needs of different
segments of the population including the needs of children, women in
their reproductive years, persons in the labor force, and the elderly. It
also allows planners to project the total size of the population. The
results can be used in all aspects of local and regional development
plans.

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 Applying the Method

The goal is to project the number of women for the district from years
2000--2005.
2000

Setting up the Table

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 Discussion

The cohort component population projection method follows the
process of demographic change and is viewed as a more reliable
projection method than those that primarily rely on census data or
information that reflects population change. It also provides the
type of information needed to plan for services to meet the future
demands of different segments of the population.
Like most projection tools, there are disadvantages to using the
cohort component method. First, it is highly dependent on reliable
birth, death and migration data. Thus, it may be difficult to collect
the information to apply this tool. Second, it assumes that survival
and birth rates and estimates of net migration will remain the same
throughout the projection period. In addition it does not consider
the non-
non-demographic factors that influence population growth or
decline.
Even though problems exists, this projection method is the most
widely used tool by planners since it provides information on the
potential growth or decline of a locale by age and sex.

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 STRUCTURAL MODELS

Often very complex in nature, models

falling into this group explain population
growth (dependent variable) through a
variety of non-
non-demographic (independent)
(independent)
variables such as employment, wage
levels, and local amenities as well as land
use and transportation models.

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 END OF DISCUSSION

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