2016 Baltic Geodetic Congress (Geomatics)
Spatial Modeling of Crime by Using of GWR Method
Somayeh Nezami
M.Eng. GIS, K.N. Toosi.University,
National Cartographic Center of Iran
Snezami89@gmail.com
Abstract—Since the location, human and time are three major
factors in incidence of delinquency which includes drug
smuggling, therefore, geographic analysis of type and amount of
crimes, analysis of social and economic features of perpetrators
and their residence place provide suitable opportunity for
confronting and controlling abusing and drug smuggling or
preventing from its perpetration. Therefore, in this article, at
first, crime data relevant to drug smuggling in Southern
Khorasan Province of Iran from the randomness point of view
were studied. Then, distribution of crimes and its relation with
each of the spatial and descriptive variables were examined.
Then, crime distribution was modeled according to variables
such as population, distance from city, distance to the nearest
police station and illiteracy by using Geographically Weighted
Regression1. Finally, first grade polynomial and four variables
were acquired by using the least squares method which is
compared by GWR.
Keywords—Geographic information systems, Geospatial
analysis, Regression analysis.
I. INTRODUCTION
Crimes do not happen randomly or equal distribution in a
city, certain types of crimes in certain areas of the city is seen
more than other area. In many cases, areas which have higher
rates of crimes benefitted social specific features, however,
detection of spatial sample of crime distribution toward
development of crimes controlling and preventing strategies
have high importance for law enforcement agencies. Analysis
based on scientific method and statistical principles and
methods related to geographical environment and crime were
performed by Quetelet & Guerry for the first time in the first
half of the 19th century [1] and it is said that his researches
leads recognition of crime as a social phenomenon following
time and location variables [8]. Almost since the 1970s,
specific attention to geographic studies of urban crimes was
created due to quick and rapid growth of urban population in
most countries of the world and uncontrolled increase in social
abnormalities in cities. Technical progress and progression to
applied researches in geography and specially, application of
Geographical Information System2 in spatial analysis of urban
crimes have more effective roles in promotion of quality level
of these studies [2]. In performed research by Rogerson &
Sun3 in 2000 a new method for finding temporal changes in
1 4
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)
2 5
Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
3 6
Rogerson & Sun
978-1-5090-2421-6 /16 $31.00 © 2016 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/BGC.Geomatics.2016.47
10.1109/BGC.Geomatics.2016.107
Ehsan Khoramshahi
PhD candidate, University of Helsinki
Department of computer science
Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI)
Ehsan.khoramshahi@helsinki.fi
spatial sample of crime-prone areas through combination of
cumulative sum4 methods and nearest neighbor statistics 5 were
expressed.
Through this method, we can engage in quick tracing of
aberrations from expected geographic pattern. Spatial analysis
while determining the priority of offenders for the purpose of
predicting of crimes in future is a research which was
performed by Xue & E.Brown6 in 2004[13]. Spatial analysis is
looking for finding meaningful patterns in observed crimes in
the study areas. Previous researches in this regard were
focused on methods for understanding of offenders’ behavior
and showing results of these analyses as hot spots.
Management and controlling of crimes need accurate
knowledge of crimes. For the purpose of reaching accurate
knowledge of crimes, type of crime, distribution method of
crimes in the study area and effective factors in occurrence of
crime (spatial and descriptive variables) were analyzed
carefully and it is not possible except through GIS [7].
II. STUDYING THE CRIME DISTRIBUTION METHOD
As explained, at the first, non-randomness of data for the
purpose of studying spatial distribution of crime in the study
area must be proved.
It is noteworthy that, in all analyses, number of crime-
prone areas was 510 items and calculation unit of distances
was meter and used from distance measuring through network
method by using provincial Road Network.
A. Proving Non-Randomness of Crime Distribution in the
Province
Through executing Ripley’s k statistics on the entire crime
data of province and observing graph resulted from Fig. 1 and
differences between L(t) with L(t)min & L(t)max, it is
completely obvious that distribution of crime data relevant to
drug smuggling of the province was not random and follows a
specific spatial pattern. As shown in Fig. 1, there is most
differences between L(t) with L(t)min & L(t)max in a radius
of 10 km which was the best distance for demonstrating the
existence of classification clusters in crime data of area.
Whatever the search radius gets increased, the amount of
L(t) to L(t)min & L(t)max become closer and met together in a
Cumulative sum
Nearest neighbor statistic
Xue & E. Brown
222

Fig.1. Ripley’s k statistic on the entire crime data of province
place. When a search radius gets 100 km, this difference gets
reduced and in fact, the result tends to become random.
Therefore, the search distance has particular importance.
This subject was proved also through other ways.
Assuming the weight equality of all villages, total number of
crimes achieved from statistics of province jails in 2006
divided over number of villages of province in order to
determining how many crimes must be occurred randomly in
each village which result is as below:
N/M = number of crime in each village
510/48  = 11
N is total number of crimes relevant to drug smuggling in
province and M is number of villages.
Fig. 2. Number of crimes in each province
According to the results, almost each village must have 11
randomly occurred crimes. Fig. 2 in which the true number of
occurred crimes in different villages is demonstrated, showed
that crime distribution relevant to drug smuggling in province
was not random and follows a specific spatial sample.
Whereas, showed in Fig. 2, in some situations, high
amount of crime (hot spot) and in others is very low (cold
223
spot) which is a proof for non-randomness of crime
distribution in the province. In this diagram, unique ID
numbers indicate the villages instead of names, because non-
randomness of crime distribution in the province is under
investigation.
III. CRIME DISTRIBUTION MODELING
One of the most important goals of this research is
modeling of crime distribution in the province according to
parameters effective in crime distribution of area.
So, at first, effective factors and effects thereof will be
studied and analyzed, then, according to studied parameters,
geographically weighted regression model in village was
achieved.
A. Effective Factors in Crimes Distribution at the Province
In this part, we engaged in analysis of each spatial &
descriptive parameters and effects thereof in creating spatial
sample according to crime data of district (crime data relevant
to drug smuggling).
1) The Relation between Crime Amount & Population
For the purpose of studying the relationship
between crime and population, Fig. 3 and Fig.5 were prepared
which shows population density and crime density in each
village in proportion to population. Totally, the largest
population is in GH, BN, KH, NE & BA villages and
generally in central & southeastward of the province. Also, as
observed in Fig. 5., the largest amount of crime in proportion
to population exists in BN, HU, SH, AL & MO villages and in
fact in central, northwestward and southeastward parts of the
province.
In Fig. 4, the percentage of village population to the total
population of the province is calculated and shown on the
horizontal axis. On the vertical axis crime percentage of each
village to the total crime occurred in the whole province is
calculated. According to this diagram, there is no meaningful
and direct relation between population density and occurred
crime entire the study area throughout the village. Generally,
where there is the largest population, crime amount is rather
low which may be resulted from other effective factors.
2) Literacy
Fig.3. The population of villages in the Province
 Generally, illiteracy rate in province is low and only 19%
of people are completely illiterate, 81% can read, write and
higher. 38% of illiteracy amount is belonging to men and 62%
to women. Fig. 6 shows the illiteracy percentage in each
village which resulted from division of number of illiterate
persons over 6 years old on population older than 6 years old.
As the map shows, eastern part of province has higher rate of
illiteracy which may be resulted from closeness to border and
farness from educational facilities of cities.
Of course, the statistics achieved from offenders, showed
that more than 90% of arrested drug smugglers were literate
and at least have elementary school studies.
According to Fig. 7, where the illiteracy percentage is
higher than the average amount of the province, the most
crime occures and in fact this place is the peaks of the
diagram. It is noteworthy that, this point refers to BN village.
But, still the diagram does not show the meaningful relation
between illiteracy amount and crime amount in area. As
shown in diagram, wherever the illiteracy percentage is more Fig. 6. The illiterate population in each village
than 6%,
there is no very high crime. The significant point is that
according to results, we can say the illiteracy was not the
effective factor in occurrence of such crime and unlike; literate
persons are intended to this crime.
3) The Location of Police Stations

The location of police stations is one of the effective

Fig. 7. The relation between illiteracy percentage and crime percentage

factors in dispersion of crime points and direction to spatial

Fig.4. The relationship between crime and population
sample of crime. Because, most of the spatial sample of crime
achieved from different areas and different crimes in the world
showed that offenders intended to crime in locations with the
maximum distance from police stations due to access time.
Fig. 8 shows the location of police stations and crime hot
spots.
According to Fig. 8, BN village which has the highest rate
of crime has 34 km distance with the nearest police station.
Different distances around each crime center were shown in
Fig. 9 which may be the good guide for evaluation the location
of police stations and optimizing their positions in reducing
crimes in hot spot areas. On the other side, according to Fig. 9,
the effect of nearness to police station and its supervisory role
were observed before the peak of diagram, but in distances
more than 50 km, due to far distance to police center, the
effect of other factors caused reduce in crimes.
According to Fig. 9, distribution of police stations
throughout the villages in such a way that have proper
coverage on crime-prone areas is not suitable which the reason
is for high crime rate in some areas like BN, A & FK villages.

Fig.5. Crime per 10000 populations in the province

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Fig. 8. The location of police stations and crime hot spot
Fig. 9. Intervals around the crime position with its histogram
B. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Sample
Modeling of crime distribution in under study area
according to effective parameters is very useful, because we
can predict crime distribution method in area through change
in each variable, and in result, make suitable decisions and
procedures toward prevention and opposition of crimes.
The used model in this research was Geographically
Weighted Regression (GWR) model which is as below [5,6]:
225
Yi  a0  k ak X ik   i (1)
One parameter approximates the relation between each
dependent variable and the independent variable and of
course, it is assumed that this relation in under study area is
fixed. In this model, estimator of parameters is as below:
a  ( X t X ) 1 X tY (2)
Which a shows general parameters vector, and must be
estimated. X is a matrix of independent variables with
elements of first column which are 1 and Y is a vector of
dependent variables’ observations. GWR is a relative simple
technique which develop common fitting framework with
regional parameters which used instead of general parameters.
Therefore, the upper model changed to below model:
Yi  a0 (ui , vi )  k ak (ui , vi ) X k   i (3)
(ui ,vi ) is shows the coordinates of the i point, a k (ui ,vi ) is
continuous function of ak (u,v) in i point. It should be noted
that, the mentioned general model is a spatial item of GWR
model in which parameters are fixed from spatial point of
view. In GWR model, it is assumed that observed data near to
i point have more effect in estimation of ak (ui ,vi ) in
proportion of far points. In fact, this equation measures the
main relation in a model around each i point. In GWR, an
observation with due regard to its nearness to i point must be
weighted, therefore, the weight of a point is not fixed and it
will be changed through change of i. a data which is closer to i
point has great weight in proportion to a far data. GWR
estimator from algebraic point of view is as below [5,6]:
a(ui , vi )  ( X tW (ui , vi ) X ) 1 X tW (ui , vi )Y (4)
In which W (ui ,vi ) is a n*n matrix and non-diagonal
elements of which is zero and its diagonal elements
determines the geographic weight of observed point in
proportion to i point.
W (ui , vi )  diag( wi1 ,..., win )
In which Win is determined the weight of n point data
around i point. Evidently, changes of weights with change of i,
determines the difference of GWR against weighted least
squares in which weight matrix is fixed.
The first stage in regional weighting to observations is
points which distances from i point is more than a determined
distance d get omitted; therefore, weights are defined as
below:
d ij  d If Wij  1
Otherwise Wij  0
Therefore, depending on result of the above mentioned
function, diagonal elements are one or zero. Although the
weight function does not show the real geographic situation
due to discontinuities issue in good manner. If the location of i
point in the study area changed, fitting function variables get
changed strictly and it may be a point put inside or outside of
buffer around the i point, in result, the mentioned point may be
considered for calculation of i point model. A way for
preventing this issue is that considering the Wij as a
continuous function of dij in which dij is a distance between
i&j. A definition way for describing a diagonal element of
weighted function is as below:
Wij  exp(dij / h 2 )
2
(5)
h is considered as band width. If i & j get alignment
together, the weight of point is considered 1 and for other
points, it will be measured according to Gaussian curves, if the
distance of i & j increased, the weight gets reduced and data
portion in calculation get small. So far, it was assumed that the
spatial weighted function in each point operating the same, in
result, this is general model of relation between distance and
weight and also in some parts of area with low density of data;
regional fittings may be resulted through very low points.
In order to solving this problem, adaptive weighted
functions in GWR may be used, in result, we would have a
small h, if points be condensed from distribution point of view
and also a very great h, if points be dispersed from distribution
point of view.
Wij  [1  (d ij / hi ) 2 ] 2 if d ij  hi (6)
=0 otherwise
hi is n-distance of nearest neighbor to i. Concerning any
specific weight function, the basis of GWR is that for each i
point, near observed samples to i in proportion to the far
observed samples have more effects in estimation of
parameters for i point.
available information in village’s level, it was used city level).
Therefore, more accurate results were achieved through
analysis in this layer as the smallest division unit of province
which may be the fundamental and practical basis for
decisions and procedures.
1) Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Model
Geographically Weighted Regression model
achieved for crime data of Southern Khorasan Province is in
accordance with four parameters of population, illiteracy,
distance from city and the nearest police station throughout the
villages of the province and showed in below diagram and
map. Achieved results are in accordance with standard
deviation of residuals amounts resulted from differences
between model and true amounts of points. As shown in Fig.
10 and Fig. 11, the most standard deviation of residuals in
positive amounts (>2.5) demonstrates the high rate of crime
and hot spot in BN, HU, SH & MO villages and high amounts
of standard deviation of residuals in negative amounts (>-2.5)
demonstrates cold spots in KH, TM & ZI villages.
2) Model Resulted from First Grade Polynomials, 4-
Variable by using the Least Squares Method
On the other side, a model resulted from fitting of the first
grade polynomials, 4-variable by using the least squares
method on crime data of province are as below:
y  a0  a1 x1  a 2 x2  a3 x3  a 4 x4 (7)
Y is crime function, X1 is population variable, X2 is
illiteracy variable, X3 is distance from downtown, X4 is
distance from police station.
Amounts of a coefficient are as below:

IV. RESULTS

A. Crime Analysis & Modeling

Controlling and preventing crimes are effective and

efficient when there are suitable strategies for its execution,
theses strategies were designed and executed for different
places as per regional conditions. Evidently, execution of such
strategy for all urban areas and places is not a reasonable task
(3). Therefore, it must engage in analysis of effective factors
on distribution method of crimes through proper determination
of spatial sample ruling over crime distribution in the study
area, execution of proper analysis on crime data of area and
determining the critical regions and while considering these
factors, fit a suitable model on crime data of area.
It was engaged in analysis of relation between crime
distribution and different variables in crime distribution
modeling section. At last, crime distribution in the province
was modeled according to effective parameters.
It is noteworthy that, village layer was selected as level of
different analyzes (except, in some analysis which there is no Fig. 10. Resulted GWR model for crime data of the province

226

Fig. 11. GWR model for crime data of province
a 0  -46.64919, a1  0.00598 , a 2  0.00602 , a 3  0.00007
a 4  0.96848
By using relation (7), it may analyze that through change
of each above mentioned parameters in the study area, how the
amount of crime function will be changed. For correct
conclusion from amounts of a coefficients, x variables
amounts must be normalized. Therefore, amounts of each
variable must be divided over total amounts and in fact, we
achieved variables percentage and through normalized
resulted amounts, we achieved coefficients as below:
a 0  0.09292 , a1  3.67568 , a 2  0.90656 , a 3  0.40786
a 4  2.28349
According to achieved results, we can conclude that three
variables of population, distance from city and nearest police
station with this crime in the study area has positive relation
and will be increased through increasing of each crime in the
area. But, the relation of illiteracy variable with crime was a
negative relation and the crime will be reduced through its
increasing. It may be concluded that illiteracy variable has no
more effect on crime amounts of the area.
V. CONCLUSION
Generally, as per diagrams resulted from the relation
between crime percentage and different parameters, it may be
concluded that high rate of crime relevant to drug smuggling
in central part of the province especially in BN village, may be
affected from factors such as being centrality of the province
due to geographic position and also vast expanse of road
network to this part of province for the purpose of drug transit,
far distance to the nearest police station and/or other factors
were not evaluated in this research.
Crime distribution modeling of the area through GWR
method and in accordance with four parameters of population,
illiteracy, distance from downtown and the nearest police
station have had valuable applied results. The most important
advantage of this model is that through change in each of the
227
mentioned parameters, we can observe the effects thereof in
crime amount of the province and present short-term and long-
term practical procedures and suitable decisions through
evaluation of time and cost for their change in society and in
result, relevant managers and authorities have possibility for
analysis and taking proper and efficient decisions through
change in each of the parameters. For example, positioning of
police stations in different cities of the province in the
minimum distance to critical points has significant impact in
crime reduction.
Generally, the achieved model may be efficient in taking
proper decisions by managers, disciplinary& judiciary
authorities, social & cultural affairs authorities toward
reducing crimes as positioning of new police stations,
determining suitable access routes of police stations to critical
areas in the least possible time and also presenting practical
procedures toward controlling of population, reducing
unemployment rate, increasing culture level in the society and
controlling other effective social factors.
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