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Nama: Halila Titin Hariyanto

NRP: 02411640000119
STUDY GUIDE MINGGU KE-3
PEMELIHARAAN DAN TEKNIK KEANDALAN
SEMESTER GENAP 2018/2019

1. A mechanical fatigue test is conducted on 100 specimens of a new polymer. The applied stress
is identical for all specimens. The number of cycles observed and the corresponding numbers
of failed specimens are given in table below.

Number Cumulative
Number of
Hour of of number of f(t) x
failed h(t) x 10^-8 R(t) F(t)
operation cycles x failed 10^-8
specimens
105 specimens
0-10 10 35 35 35 35 1 0
10-20 20 59 24 24 36.9 0.65 0.35
20-30 30 72 13 13 31.7 0.41 0.59
30-40 40 84 12 12 42.8 0.28 0.72
40-50 50 93 9 9 56.2 0.16 0.84
50-60 60 100 7 7 100 0.07 0.93

a. Plot graphs for f(t), R(t), h(t), and F(t)


b. Comment on the above result
Failure Density f(t) menurun menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas terjadinya kerusakan
atau kegagalan semakin sedikit.
Hazard Rate h(t) konstan dan diakhir terjadi kenaikkan menunjukkan bahwa
kerusakan yang terjadi diawal stabil namun diakhir kerusakan meningkat secara signifikan.
Reliability R(t) menurun menunjukkan bahwa keandalan dalam melakukan proses
mengalami penurunan seiring berjalannya waktu.
Unreliability F(t) meningkat menunjukkan kebalikan dari reliability, semakin lama
ketidak andalan akan semakin meningkat.

c. Derive an analytical expression for h(t) and estimate the MTTF of a bar made of the same
material and is subjected to the same loading conditions.
Grafik hazard rate hingga waktu 50 x 105 h masih konstan. Sehingga menggunakan rumus:
1
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹(𝑡) =
𝜆
Sedangkan untuk hazard rate yang mengalami kenaikkkan linier menngunakan rumus:
𝜋
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹(𝑡) = √
2𝜆
𝜆 = hazard rate

Number
Hour of
of cycles h(t) MTTF
operation
x 105
0-10 10 0,00000035 2857143
10-20 20 0,000000369 2710027
20-30 30 0,000000317 3154574
30-40 40 0,000000428 2336449
40-50 50 0,000000562 1779359
50-60 60 0,000001 1253
MTTF rata-rata 2139801

2. The reliability of disk drives can be predicted by increasing the operational machine hours
accumulated in the field or in the laboratory as part of the initial design process. The failures
have been accumulated and given in the table below.

Hour of Number of failed


f(t) x 10^-5 h(t) x 10^-5 R(t) F(t)
operation x 103 disks
0 – 10.0 0 0 0 0 0
10.1 – 14.0 10 8.3 8.3 1 1
14.1 – 18.0 15 12.4 13.5 0.92 0.08
18.1 – 22.0 18 14.9 18.8 0.79 0.21
22.1 – 26.0 20 16.5 25.6 0.64 0.36
26.1 – 30.0 16 13.2 27.6 0.48 0.52
30.1 – 34.0 22 18.2 52.4 0.35 0.65
34.1 – 38.0 20 16.5 100 0.17 0.83

a. Plot graphs for f(t), R(t), h(t), and F(t)


b. Comment on the above result
Failure Density f(t) meningkat secara tidak stabil menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas
terjadinya kerusakan atau kegagalan semakin tinggi.
Hazard Rate h(t) meningkat menunjukkan bahwa kerusakan yang terjadi semakin
tinggi.
Reliability R(t) menurun menunjukkan bahwa keandalan dalam melakukan proses
mengalami penurunan seiring berjalannya waktu.
Unreliability F(t) meningkat menunjukkan kebalikan dari reliability, semakin lama
ketidak andalan akan semakin meningkat.

c. Derive an analytical expression for h(t) and estimate the MTTF of a bar made of the same
material and is subjected to the same loading conditions.
Grafik hazard rate hingga waktu 50 x 105 h masih konstan. Sehingga menggunakan rumus:
1
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹(𝑡) =
𝜆
Sedangkan untuk hazard rate yang mengalami kenaikkkan linier menngunakan rumus:
𝜋
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹(𝑡) = √
2𝜆
𝜆 = hazard rate

Hour of
Number of
operation x h(t) x 10^-5 MTTF
failed disks
103
0 – 10.0 0 0 #DIV/0!
10.1 – 14.0 10 0,000083 12048
14.1 – 18.0 15 0,000135 7407
18.1 – 22.0 18 0,000188 5319
22.1 – 26.0 20 0,000256 3906
26.1 – 30.0 16 0,000276 3623
30.1 – 34.0 22 0,000524 55
34.1 – 38.0 20 0,001 40
MTTF rata-rata 4628
d. Would you buy a disk produced by the above manufacturer? Why?
Ya saya akan membeli disk yang dihasilkan oleh manufaktur karena nilai MTTF disk sebesar
4628 h yang artinya sekitar 6 bulan. Dan nilai f(t) probability density function, probabilitas
nilai kegagalan cenderung konstan.

3. One of the modern methods for stress screening is called highly accelerated stress screening
(HASS). Which use the highest possible stresses (well beyond the normal operating level) to
attain time compression on the screens. The HASS exhibits an exponential acceleration of
screen strength with stress level. A manufacturer employs a HASS test on newly designed leaf
springs for light trucks. A cyclic load was applied on a number of springs and the failure times
are recorded in table below.
a. Fit a nonlinear polynomial hazard function to describe the hazard rate of the springs
Time Interval Number of f(t) x h(t) x
(minutes) failed units 10^-3 10^-3
0-1.999 10 19 19
2-3.999 15 28,5 29,6
4-5.999 22 41,8 46,2
6-7.999 34 64,6 78,7
8-9.999 49 93,2 134,6
10-11.999 63 119,8 236,8
12-14 70 133,1 500

b. What is the reliability at t=8?


𝑓(𝑡)
𝑅(𝑡) =
ℎ(𝑡)
93,2
𝑅(8) = = 0,692
134,6

c. Assume that we obtained 500 springs that require testing under the same conditions.
What is the expected time to failure? What is the least time needed to ensure that all units
fail under test?
Time Interval Number of
h(t) MTTF
(minutes) failed units
0-1.999 10 0,019 52,6
2-3.999 15 0,0296 33,8
4-5.999 22 0,0462 21,6
6-7.999 34 0,0787 12,7
8-9.999 49 0,1346 7,4
10-11.999 63 0,2368 4,2
12-14 70 0,5 1,8
MTTF rata-rata 19,2
Waktu rata rata MTTF yang terjadi 19,2 minutes.

4. Explain what is PDF, CDF, hazard rate, and reliability?


Jawab:
 PDF (Probability Density Function) 𝒇(𝒕)
Fungsi yang menyatakan probabilitas munculnya kejadian kegagalan dari setiap kejadian t.
Nilai 𝑓(𝑡) selalu bernilai positif.
 CDF (Cumulative Density Function) 𝑭(𝒕)
Fungsi yang menunjukkan jumlah dari semua probabilitas yang terjadi.
 Hazard Rate Function 𝒉(𝒕)
Fungsi yang menunjukkan batas dari kegagalan rata-rata dengan rentang waktu mendekati
nol. Sebagai Ukuran laju kegagalan pada waktu tertentu. Dapat berupa increasing,
decreasing, dan constant.
 Reliability 𝑹(𝒕)
Fungsi yang menyatakan probabilitas peralatan untuk beroperasi sesuai dengan spesifikasi
yang diinginkan tanpa mengalami kegagalan.

5. Show the formula of PDF, CDF, hazard rate, and reliability on:
a. Exponential distribution
b. Rayleigh distribution
c. Weibull distribution
d. Normal distribution
e. Lognormal distribution
f. Gamma distribution
g. Beta distribution
PDF f(t) CDF F(t) Hazard Rate h(x) Reliability
Exponential Constant Hazard Rate
𝒇(𝒕) = 𝝀𝒆−𝝀𝒕 𝑭(𝒕) = 𝟏 − 𝒆−𝝀𝒕
Distribution 𝑡
Model
for 𝑡 ≥ 0, 𝜆 > 0
𝒉(𝒙) = 𝝀 𝑹(𝒕) = 𝒆−𝝀𝒕
t = time = ∫ 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 𝑑𝑥
for 𝑥 ≥ 0, 𝜆 > 0
𝜆 = distribution parameter 0

Rayleigh 𝒕 𝟐 𝒕 𝟐
𝟐 −( ) 𝑭(𝒕) = 𝟏 − 𝒆−(𝜶) Linear Hazard Rate Model
Distribution 𝒇(𝒕) = ( 𝟐 ) 𝒕𝒆 𝜶
𝜶 𝑡 𝒉(𝒙) = 𝒂 + 𝒃𝒙
2 𝑥 2 𝑹(𝒕) = 𝟏 − 𝑭(𝒙)
for 𝑡 ≥ 0, 𝛼 > 0 = ∫( ) 𝑥𝑒 −( )
𝛼 𝑑𝑥 for 𝑥 ≥ 0, 𝑎 ≥ 0, 𝑏 > 0
𝛼 = distribusi parameter 𝛼2
0
Weibull 𝜷 𝒕 𝜷 𝒕 𝜷
Distribution 𝒇(𝒕) = ( 𝜷 ) 𝒕𝜷−𝟏 𝒆−(𝜶) 𝑭(𝒕) = 𝟏 − 𝒆−(𝜶)
Power Hazard Rate Model
𝜶 𝒉(𝒙) = 𝒄𝒙𝒄−𝟏
𝑡 𝒕−𝜸 𝜷
for 𝑡 ≥ 0, 𝛼 > 0, 𝛽 > 0 𝛽 𝑥 𝛽 𝑹(𝒕) = 𝒆
−(
𝜼
)
= ∫ ( 2) 𝑥 𝛽−1 −(𝛼)
𝑒 𝑑𝑥 for 𝑥 ≥ 0, 𝑐 ≥ 0
𝛼 = distribusi scale 𝛼
𝛽 = shape parameter 0
𝒕
Normal 𝟏 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 𝝓(𝒙)
(𝒕 − 𝝁) 𝟐
Distribution 𝟏 𝑭(𝒕) = ∫ 𝒆𝒙𝒑 [− ] 𝒅𝒙 𝒉(𝒙) = ∞
𝒇(𝒕) = 𝒆𝒙𝒑 [− ] 𝝈√𝟐𝚷 𝟐𝝈𝟐 𝚽(−𝒙)
𝝈√𝟐𝚷 𝟐𝝈𝟐 −∞ 𝑹(𝒕) = ∫ 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙
𝑡 𝜙 = cumulative dist 𝒕
for ∞ < 𝑡 < +∞ (𝑡 − 𝜇)2
1 ∞
1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
function
𝑒 −2( )
𝜇 = mean = ∫ 𝑒𝑥𝑝 [− ] 𝑑𝑡 =∫ 𝜎 𝑑𝑥
𝜎√2Π 2𝜎 2 Φ = probability density 𝑡 𝜎√2𝜋
𝜎 = standard deviation −∞
func
Lognormal 𝟏 𝒍𝒏 𝒙
𝒇(𝒕) (𝒙𝝈) 𝝓( 𝝈 )
Distribution 𝒉(𝒙, 𝝈) = ∞
𝟏 (𝐥𝐧 𝒕 − 𝝁)𝟐 𝑭(𝒕) −𝒍𝒏 𝒙
= 𝒆𝒙𝒑 [− ] 𝒕 𝚽( 𝝈 ) 𝑹(𝒕) = ∫ 𝒇(𝒙)𝒅𝒙
𝒕𝜶√𝟐𝚷 𝟐𝜶𝟐 𝟏 𝟏 (𝐥𝐧 𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 𝒕
= ∫ 𝒆𝒙𝒑 [− ] 𝒅𝒙 𝜙 = probability density ∞ 1 𝑥−𝜇′ 2
for 𝑡 ≥ 0 𝜶√𝟐𝚷 𝟎 𝒙 𝟐𝜶𝟐 1
𝑒 2 𝜎′ ) 𝑑𝑥
− (
func =∫
𝜇 = distribution parameters ln(𝑡) 𝜎′√2𝜋
Φ = cumulative dist
𝛼 = distribution parameters
function
Gamma 𝝀(𝝀𝒙)𝒌−𝟏 −𝝀𝒕
Distribution 𝒇(𝒕) = 𝒆 𝚪(𝒌, 𝝀𝒕)
𝚪(𝒌) 𝑭(𝒕) = 𝟏 −
1 𝚪(𝒌)
𝜆= 𝒙𝜸−𝟏 𝒆−𝒙
α 𝑡
𝒉(𝒙) = 𝑹(𝒕) = 𝟏 − 𝚪𝑰 (𝒌; 𝒆𝒛 )
𝜆(𝜆𝑥)𝑘−1 −𝜆𝑥 𝚪(𝜸) − 𝚪𝒙 (𝜸)
for 𝑡 ≥ 0, 𝜆 > 0, 𝑘 > 0 =∫ 𝑒 𝑑𝑥
𝑘 = distribusi shape parameter Γ(𝑘) for 𝑥 ≥ 0, 𝛾 > 0
0
Γ(𝑘) = gamma function Γ(𝑘, 𝜆𝑡) = incomplete gamma function
𝛼 = distribusi scale parameter
Beta (𝒙 − 𝒂)𝒑−𝟏 (𝒃 − 𝒙)𝒒−𝟏
𝝀
Distribution 𝒇(𝒙) = 𝑩(𝒑, 𝒒)(𝒃 − 𝒂)𝒑+𝒒−𝟏 𝑭(𝒙) = 𝑰𝒙 (𝒑, 𝒒) 𝒉(𝒙) = 𝑹(𝑻 + 𝒕)
𝑥 (𝒕 + 𝒑)(𝒒 − 𝒕) 𝑹(𝒕) =
for 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏, 𝑝, 𝑞 > 0 ∫0 𝑡 𝑝−1 (1 − 𝑡)𝑞−1 𝑑𝑡 𝑹(𝑻)
= 𝜆 1
𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞 = shape parameters 𝐵(𝑝, 𝑞) = ( 𝑅(𝑇)
(𝑞 + 𝑝) 𝑡 + 𝑝 𝑇
𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏 = lower and upper for 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1, 𝑝, 𝑞 > 0 1 = 1 − ∫ 𝑓(𝑡|𝑃, 𝑄, 𝐴, 𝐵)𝑑𝑡
bounds + ) 𝐴
𝑞−𝑡
𝐵(𝑝, 𝑞) = beta function
Referensi
Adillah, M., 2016. Universitas Lampung. [Online]
Available at: http://digilib.unila.ac.id/22266/3/SKRIPSI%20TANPA%20BAB%20PEMBAHASAN.pdf
[Accessed 16 February 2019].

Anon., n.d. Engineering Statics Handbook. [Online]


Available at: https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda366h.htm
[Accessed 16 February 2019].

Anon., n.d. NCSS.COM. [Online]


Available at: https://ncss-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-
content/themes/ncss/pdf/Procedures/NCSS/Beta_Distribution_Fitting.pdf
[Accessed 16 February 2019].

Basuki, A., 2004. Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya. [Online]


Available at: http://basuki.lecturer.pens.ac.id/lecture/statistik2.pdf
[Accessed 16 February 2019].

Rinne, H., 2014. geb.uni-gissen.de. [Online]


Available at: http://geb.uni-
giessen.de/geb/volltexte/2014/10793/pdf/RinneHorst_hazardrate_2014.pdf
[Accessed 16 February 2019].

Schenkelberg, F., n.d. Accendo Reliability. [Online]


Available at: https://accendoreliability.com/using-the-exponential-distribution-reliability-function/
[Accessed 16 February 2019].