14march 2019 - India - Daily PDF

INDIA DAILY
March 14, 2019 India 13-Mar 1-day 1-mo 3-mo

Sensex 37,752 0.6 5.2 5.0
Nifty 11,342 0.4 5.5 5.0
Contents Global/Regional indices

Dow Jones 25,703 0.6 1.0 6.6
Special Reports Nasdaq Composite 7,643 0.7 2.9 10.6
Theme Report FTSE 7,159 0.1 (0.5) 4.6

Nikkei 21,403 0.5 1.2 0.1
Banks: Recovery, still elusive
Hang Seng 28,807 (0.4) 1.3 10.4
 Sanctions flat yoy; moving beyond infrastructure
KOSPI 2,149 0.0 (3.5) 3.8
 Muted growth in corporate loans over medium term Value traded – India
Cash (NSE+BSE) 426 365 284
 Project cancellations decrease, average ticket size shows rising skew
Derivatives (NSE) 10,192 6,848 9,565
towards high-value projects
Deri. open interest 3,467 3,341 3,528
 Increase in focus on retail lending and SME space
Daily Alerts
Forex/money market
Change in Reco Change, basis points
TCNS Clothing Co.: Trade show takeaways 13-Mar 1-day 1-mo 3-mo
Rs/US$ 69.6 (7) (145) (239)

 Monsoon-winter range: wider festive season offering at higher price points
10yr govt bond, % 7.6 2 9 5
 Attempting faster concept-to-store turnaround times for fast fashion Net investment (US$ mn)
categories 12-Mar MTD CYTD
 Omni-channel strategy to improve upsell opportunities within store FIIs 511 1,251 4,134
MFs (69) (120) 1,208

 Raise fair value to Rs855 but run-up in stock price drives a downgrade in Top movers
rating to ADD Change, %
Company alerts Best performers 13-Mar 1-day 1-mo 3-mo
Lupin: Mandideep cephs unit receives an OAI YES IN Equity 244 3.6 10.4 35.5
RECL IN Equity 135 1.0 11.8 29.5

 Mandideep cephalosporins unit receives OAI status - no financial impact POWF IN Equity 111 0.4 10.3 22.7
 US bottoming out - growth now hinges on levothyroxine, ProAir and RIL IN Equity 1,347 1.2 10.1 21.1
Solosec NMDC IN Equity 114 1.7 22.3 21.0
Worst performers
 Estimates factor in a full recovery
RCOM IN Equity 5 (3.9) (11.7) (68.9)
Voltas: Takeaways from analyst meet RPWR IN Equity 12 (3.4) 8.0 (59.0)
 Key takeaways from the analyst meet RELI IN Equity 130 (1.1) 10.6 (55.5)
IDBI IN Equity 43 (3.7) (4.6) (29.4)

Sector alerts
UT IN Equity 2 (3.0) 45.5 (22.0)
Consumer Staples: Price hike in select foods/beverages
 Pricing and promotions - a lull; modest incremental activity
 RM trends - mixed for agri-commodities; crude fall provides relief

Insurance: Most players fare well
 Individual APE growth picks pace; up 16% yoy in February 2019
kspcg.research@kotak.com
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES.
REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
ATTRACTIVE
Banks
India MARCH 13, 2019
THEME
BSE-30: 37,752
Recovery, still elusive. The RBI’s recent release on project loan sanctions (private
sector) by banks/FI shows fresh sanctions at ~2.4% of loans in FY2018 (flat yoy) and
pending disbursements (~2% of loans) suggesting muted loan growth ahead.
Cancellations have slowed (<3%) and there is improvement in ticket size. Infrastructure
and construction sector decreased to 58% from 75% yoy, although sanctions to select
sectors like metals and hotels have seen an increase. Focus on retail loans will continue.
Sanctions flat yoy; moving beyond infrastructure
Overall fresh sanctions by banks/FI for long-term projects reported were flat yoy post healthy QUICK NUMBERS
growth in FY2017 (see Exhibits 1 and 2). We note that FY2016 saw growth move to a positive
territory after a long period of decline, indicating recovery in the corporate investment cycle  Fresh sanctions flat
(supported by >90% yoy growth in FY2017). The total sanctions are still low at ~2.4% of yoy; 2.4% of FY2018
FY2017 loans but higher than 1.6% of loans in FY2016. From the peak levels, sanctions for opening loans as
FY2018 are down by ~54% yoy, indicating that the near-term loan growth prospect still compared to 2.7%
remains weak. ~55% of the loans sanctioned is still dominated by infrastructure but the share in FY2017
has declined from 65% in FY2016 and >70% in FY2017 led by drop in power sector sanctions.
Roads and bridges have seen a pickup in recent years. The chemicals and metal sector saw  <3% project
higher sanctions in FY2018. cancellations gives
comfort
Muted growth in corporate loans over medium term
We maintain our outlook of muted loan growth in the corporate side, which is ~35% (see
Exhibit 10) of loans for the sector. Most banks continue to reduce exposure to stressed sectors
and sharp rise in lending to new sectors is low. Most companies are focusing on reducing
leverage levels through multiple options than looking at fresh capital expenditure. We expect
muted loan growth in the medium term. Loan growth in the large corporate segment is at ~6%
yoy (see Exhibit 16) and broadly reflects cyclical slowdown seen in FY1998-2005 (see Exhibit 12).
Project cancellations decrease, average ticket size shows rising skew towards high-value projects
One of the key positives that we see from the report is that the cancellations of earlier announced
projects have slowed sharply for the past five consecutive years. FY2018 saw <5% cancellations
or revisions (see Exhibits 6 and 7) as compared to 20-25% on projects announced in FY2008-
11. This only gives confidence that promoters are taking a good view of the underlying business
environment before investing in new projects. There is a marginal skew tending towards large-
ticket projects (see Exhibit 8). However, sanctions for business expansion and modernization
have seen a steep drop over the years (<10% of overall sanctions in FY2018). Another concern
is the increasing concentration of sanctions to select states (~50% in top 4). M B Mahesh CFA
Increase in focus on retail lending and SME space

Nischint Chawathe
The shift to retail has begun with the share of retail loans increasing to ~26% in January 2019
from 19% in FY2014. We expect retail loans to grow at 16% CAGR over FY2019-22E and their
contribution to overall loans to increase to ~28% of loans (see Exhibits 11, 12 and 13). This
Dipanjan Ghosh
transition will be more cyclical in nature than structural. As such we do not see any asset quality
issues in the retail portfolio, although steep growth in unsecured loans may pose challenges going
ahead. There has been a gradual change in the retail mix, with increasing share of unsecured Shrey Singh
loans as compared to housing. The only other space that is still seeing strong growth is NBFCs,
which would slow down, and SME. With better data such as GST filings, we are seeing banks
looking to build a strong portfolio within the SME space as well in the next few years.
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Banks India
Exhibit 1: Fresh sanctions were ~2.4% of FY2018 loans (opening) Exhibit 2: Sanctions were flat yoy in FY2018
Sanctions of long-term projects by banks/FIs, March fiscal year-ends, Growth in sanctions of long-term projects by banks/FIs, March fiscal
2006-18 (` bn) year-ends, 2007-18 (%)
135
4,500
3,600 90
2,700 45
1,800 0
900
(45)
-
(90)
2018
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 3: Infrastructure contributed 53% of the project sanctioned; down from 63% yoy
Break-up of project sanctions across sectors, March fiscal year-ends, 2009-18 (number of projects and cost of projects)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn)
Infrastructure 97 1,400 100 2,007 120 2,015 107 908 82 906 87 505 74 427 109 661 204 1,120 147 914
Power 54 868 75 1,257 104 1,733 82 812 71 747 70 447 65 368 93 525 170 814 122 660
Telecom 6 339 6 672 2 214 1 — 2 106 1 — 1 43 1 2 1 — — —
Ports and airports 4 87 2 12 1 26 1 25 1 36 1 10 — — 3 22 8 102 6 52
Storage and water management 2 — 2 37 1 — 12 10 — — 5 14 2 5 4 39 6 66 2 5
SEZ, industrial biotech and others 28 100 15 25 12 41 11 61 8 17 8 19 3 8 1 4 2 7 1 28
Roads and bridges 3 3 — — — — — — — — 2 15 3 3 7 70 17 131 16 169
Chemicals/ pesticides 27 53 28 33 27 49 17 67 19 21 15 13 7 23 11 15 10 38 23 192
Metal and products 97 551 134 741 113 792 73 312 51 548 44 216 17 152 14 14 23 88 21 164
Construction 30 336 20 471 18 124 22 33 20 53 27 27 29 35 26 17 60 215 39 88
Transport services 14 31 22 57 14 23 19 52 16 32 15 6 5 5 10 11 12 7 16 69
Textiles 45 37 77 90 77 109 94 134 31 36 58 131 50 36 49 44 57 73 54 62
Hotel and restaurants 57 87 56 106 63 131 51 88 31 59 29 34 15 10 16 10 12 14 29 48
Food products 50 31 41 20 39 26 41 29 36 17 43 23 34 25 26 17 38 16 47 47
Hospitals and health services 16 16 23 37 22 23 9 6 17 27 10 9 2 1 1 — 22 20 18 29
Glass and pottery 6 9 9 8 6 15 10 25 3 — 11 4 19 6 8 5 19 11 20 14
Cement 28 187 29 115 14 90 9 38 11 74 12 90 7 33 5 17 5 41 3 10
Mining and quarrying 7 19 10 102 1 8 4 4 2 2 1 8 2 1 10 25 4 7 1 7
Petroleum products 4 3 2 53 3 98 3 23 — — 1 6 1 30 2 18 2 9 1 5
Transport equipment and parts 30 93 25 53 28 30 26 50 17 17 16 15 7 46 4 23 9 65 10 5
Electrical equipment 17 40 16 8 24 75 12 6 10 36 9 25 7 2 3 2 9 4 6 3
Sugar 21 37 21 33 21 30 12 21 5 9 8 10 6 11 5 4 2 2 1 2
O thers 162 184 116 164 107 116 127 121 63 59 86 149 44 31 47 37 53 63 54 67
Total 708 3,111 729 4,095 697 3,752 636 1,916 414 1,895 472 1,273 326 873 346 918 541 1,792 490 1,728
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities
KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3

India Banks
Exhibit 4: Share of sanctions in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka has increased to 50% of overall sanctions in FY2018
State-wise sanctions, March fiscal year-ends, 2009-18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn) (#) (Rs bn)
Maharashtra 110 563 117 410 71 278 86 366 67 203 76 251 38 129 36 86 57 158 65 391
Karnataka 44 75 42 57 40 270 39 230 20 30 39 79 27 47 21 57 52 122 66 180
Andhra Pradesh 74 236 73 291 65 428 52 98 35 108 37 51 24 71 33 113 47 143 22 168
Gujarat 75 572 69 131 65 360 75 172 58 106 66 185 71 83 61 139 102 412 71 135
Tamil Nadu 63 72 66 225 93 229 58 109 22 34 33 69 27 25 26 85 22 79 28 112
Rajasthan 22 19 23 119 28 30 49 94 41 100 24 18 29 97 10 8 23 50 33 105
Chhatisgarh 16 72 23 246 31 454 11 46 9 78 16 136 8 65 8 43 15 72 7 79
O disha 15 280 25 569 25 278 15 121 10 508 10 149 5 139 6 28 6 56 5 50
Uttar Pradesh 32 96 27 16 32 173 42 149 26 83 21 14 20 47 15 21 22 66 30 41
Himachal Pradesh 18 16 19 25 13 30 7 10 5 6 3 23 3 1 8 13 1 — 8 38
Punjab 23 22 23 16 38 41 37 33 12 207 28 19 6 3 11 16 29 38 36 36
Jammu & Kashmir NA NA 2 4 3 4 5 4 10 4 10 66 2 1 9 2 3 2 8 33
Telungana NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 10 35 52 122 17 31
West Bengal 43 93 33 106 29 124 19 94 13 19 12 15 9 11 14 28 18 30 14 31
Madhya Pradesh 20 224 23 172 21 195 16 107 13 74 30 78 14 34 21 63 18 134 12 26
Multiple states 55 591 45 1,188 48 608 34 86 15 146 21 88 10 83 13 124 17 211 17 140
O thers 98 180 119 520 95 251 91 197 58 190 46 33 33 38 44 56 57 97 51 131
Total 708 3,111 729 4,095 697 3,752 636 1,916 414 1,895 472 1,273 326 873 346 918 541 1,792 490 1,728
Exhibit 5: Visibility of loan growth continues to decline

Schedule of disbursements across years, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-19
Phasing of Capital Expenditure of Projects Sanctioned Assistance by Banks/FIs
Projects Project Project Beyond

Capital Expenditure in the Year (#) Cost (a) Cost (b) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019
Year of sanction
Up to 2010 3,350 15,446 12,257 2,736 2065 1191 445 123 34
2011 697 4,603 3,752 286 1071 1046 788 464 85 1 9
2012 636 2,120 1,916 57 230 669 554 282 95 29
2013 414 1,963 1,895 1 367 567 490 273 112 65 20
2014 472 1,340 1,273 13 151 348 449 199 71 42
2015 326 876 873 1 148 346 259 95 24
2016 346 954 918 38 74 375 286 81 50 14
2017 541 1,828 1,792 13 39 254 712 411 216 147
2018 490 1,728 1,728 6 162 123 650 419 368
Total 3,079 3,367 3,286 2,506 1,906 1,401 1,391 1,361 1,228 685 529
Incremental loans 4,411 6,610 6,298 5,849 6,566 4,815 5,477 4,848 5,875 5,528
% of inc. capex to inc. loans 69.8 50.9 52.2 42.8 29.0 29.1 25.4 28.1 20.9 12.4
Total loans 30,885 37,495 43,793 49,642 56,208 61,023 66,500 71,347 77,223 82,750
% of inc. capex to opening loans 11.6 10.9 8.8 5.7 3.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 0.9
Notes:
(a) Total loans for FY2019 is as of January 2019.
4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Banks India
Exhibit 6: Lower cancellations of projects in recent years Exhibit 7: FY2017 saw fewer cancellations compared to long-
Initial and revised sanctions, March fiscal year-ends, 2007-18 (` bn) term average
Changes from initial sanctions, March fiscal year-ends, 2007-17 (%)
Initial Revised 0
6,000
-6
4,800
-12
3,600
2,400 -18
1,200 -24
0 -30
2010
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 8: Marginal improvement in the distribution of size of capex towards large-ticket ones
Distribution of the size of projects, March fiscal year-ends, 2009-18
Less than Rs1 bn to Rs5 bn to Rs10 bn to Rs50 bn
Rs1 bn Rs5 bn Rs10 bn Rs50 bn and above Total
2009 No of projects (#) 420 194 35 48 11 708
Share of total costs (%) 5.1 14.1 7.5 29.7 43.7
2010 No of projects (#) 439 189 40 39 22 729
Share of total costs (%) 3.8 11 6.8 20.8 57.5
2011 No of projects (#) 412 172 42 51 20 697
2012 No of projects (#) 420 145 36 26 9 636
2013 No of projects (#) 245 119 20 23 7 414
2014 No of projects (#) 306 115 25 21 5 472
2015 No of projects (#) 223 65 18 19 1 326
Share of total costs (%) 9 16.6 14.6 47.8 12
2016 No of projects (#) 214 76 34 21 1 352
Share of total costs (%) 8.6 20.9 26 38.5 5.9
2017 No of projects (#) 287 184 30 41 5 547

India Banks
Exhibit 9: Sanction for business expansion and modernization has seen a steep decline over the years
Purpose-wise distribution of projects sanctioned by banks/FIs, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18
Expansion and
New modernisation Diversification Others
2011 Projects (#) 454 224 6 13
Project cost share (%) 67 31 2 1
2012 Projects (#) 449 172 5 10
2013 Projects (#) 303 107 — 4
Project cost share (%) 84 15 — 1
2014 Projects (#) 361 95 2 14
Project cost share (%) 65 20 — 15
2015 Projects (#) 203 92 2 29
2016 Projects (#) 260 64 3 19
2017 Projects (#) 429 97 4 11
2018 Projects (#) 401 80 2 7
Exhibit 10: Industry loan growth has showed signs of revival

Break-up of loans and growth across segments, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-January 2019 (%)
Proportion of loans Growth yoy Incremental loan growth yoy
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-19 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-19 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-19
Agriculture & Allied 13.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 12.0 12.8 13.5 14.0 13.4 13.2 16.2 13.3 7.7 13.5 14.4 15.3 12.4 3.8 7.6 17.7 10.4 10.5 7.4 11.4 22.1 21.5 20.0 6.4 10.3
Priority Sector 35.9 34.4 33.1 31.6 33.7 33.5 34.0 34.3 33.2 32.5 16.2 12.1 8.2 22.0 7.0 10.7 9.4 4.8 9.4 36.5 27.4 25.1 20.5 48.6 30.3 39.6 38.3 19.8 21.7
Agriculture & Allied 13.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 12.0 12.8 13.5 14.0 13.3 13.1 16.2 13.3 7.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 12.3 3.1 7.4 17.7 10.4 10.5 7.4 11.4 22.1 21.5 19.8 5.2 10.7
SME 12.3 12.1 11.6 11.5 13.5 13.3 12.9 12.7 13.0 12.4 19.1 12.3 12.5 33.6 6.6 5.9 6.4 10.5 11.1 14.7 11.0 9.0 11.0 27.1 11.3 8.7 9.9 15.9 4.2
Manufacturing 6.8 5.7 5.5 5.8 6.9 6.3 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.5 2.4 12.2 20.0 35.5 (1.3) (2.3) (0.5) 0.9 (0.7) 8.5 0.8 4.2 8.3 14.5 (1.2) (1.6) (0.3) 0.6 (0.4)
Services 5.5 6.3 6.1 5.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.1 7.1 39.7 12.5 5.8 31.6 14.9 13.3 11.8 17.1 7.8 6.1 10.3 4.8 2.7 12.6 12.5 10.3 10.2 15.3 (7.5)
Housing 7.2 6.5 6.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.2 10.5 10.7 0.3 13.5 6.3 6.2 7.6 2.0 14.6 4.7 3.5 4.2 0.1 5.2 4.3 3.7 4.8 1.2 10.3
Weaker Sections 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.9 6.7 7.3 7.8 7.4 7.4 11.7 18.1 17.1 41.3 4.8 17.9 16.2 2.6 9.3 8.6 3.2 5.9 7.0 16.2 4.3 13.3 14.1 2.4 7.7
Industry 43.1 43.8 45.2 45.8 45.3 44.3 41.7 37.8 35.1 33.5 23.0 20.3 14.9 13.1 5.3 2.7 (1.9) 0.7 5.1 58.7 46.6 53.7 50.6 42.0 30.8 13.4 (9.2) 3.2 9.7
Mining & Quarrying 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 40.9 27.6 6.6 2.0 1.8 8.5 (11.6) 19.8 18.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.6 (0.8) 1.1 0.1
Food processing 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 17.6 22.1 24.5 26.1 15.9 (12.5) (3.0) 6.7 5.4 2.7 1.8 2.8 4.0 4.4 5.4 (3.9) (0.8) 1.7 (0.9)
Textiles 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.4 20.4 9.4 14.9 11.1 (1.0) 1.9 (4.6) 6.9 (3.1) 4.3 3.8 2.2 4.2 2.9 (0.5) 0.7 (1.7) 2.3 (2.2)
Rubber, Plastic others 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 65.9 15.7 4.1 18.0 2.6 (1.1) 4.8 8.2 6.7 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 0.5 0.6
Glass & Glassware 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.4 14.8 18.5 17.0 1.5 0.6 (10.8) 6.5 19.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 0.3
Cement 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 19.8 24.9 24.0 18.0 3.6 (3.1) (0.1) (3.1) 6.9 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 (0.3) (0.0) (0.3) 0.5
Basic metals 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.5 31.6 22.4 19.7 15.2 6.5 7.9 1.2 (1.2) (10.3) 7.8 8.0 7.9 9.0 6.9 5.4 5.6 0.9 (0.8) (9.0)
Construction 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 (1.7) 11.9 7.3 17.7 21.0 0.3 10.3 9.5 9.2 1.3 (0.1) 0.8 0.6 1.3 3.0 0.0 1.4 1.3 1.0
Infrastructure 12.5 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.4 14.7 12.8 11.6 12.0 37.8 20.5 15.7 15.1 10.1 4.4 (6.1) (1.7) 12.5 25.1 22.2 17.6 17.3 15.8 19.4 7.4 (10.7) (2.6) 18.5
Power 6.2 7.3 7.7 8.5 8.8 9.3 8.9 7.4 6.8 6.8 42.4 23.9 25.5 17.4 14.2 4.0 (9.4) (1.1) 7.5 14.5 12.3 10.5 14.8 10.4 15.8 4.1 (9.9) (1.0) 6.7
Telecom 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 57.8 0.5 (6.8) 3.0 1.7 (0.7) (6.8) (0.6) 16.3 2.1 5.3 0.1 (1.1) 0.4 0.3 (0.1) (1.1) (0.1) 1.6
Roads 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.3 23.6 22.1 18.2 19.9 7.2 5.2 1.4 (7.5) 11.5 6.0 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 2.6 1.6 0.4 (2.3) 4.2
Other Infrastructure 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 20.7 32.2 0.5 9.3 2.6 9.2 (0.1) 3.7 34.4 2.5 1.9 3.8 0.1 1.3 0.6 1.8 (0.0) 0.7 6.1
Services 23.9 24.2 23.7 23.7 24.0 23.5 23.5 25.4 26.7 27.2 22.6 14.4 13.1 16.1 5.7 9.1 16.9 13.8 23.9 18.4 25.3 21.0 23.3 26.6 17.4 23.5 47.7 41.8 35.7
Transport 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 33.3 9.1 4.2 12.4 2.3 8.9 10.7 9.8 13.7 3.0 2.7 1.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.3
Professional Services 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 4.2 5.0 18.8 25.3 19.4 23.9 31.6 12.9 12.3 (0.2) 0.3 0.4 1.6 2.1 3.1 3.7 6.0 3.0 2.7
Trade 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 13.1 21.1 22.4 17.0 13.3 4.2 12.3 9.1 10.6 4.6 3.3 6.4 8.8 6.7 9.8 2.8 8.5 6.6 5.6
Real Estate 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 5.8 15.6 11.9 22.4 7.8 6.7 4.5 0.1 7.6 (0.1) 0.8 2.5 2.3 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.0 2.4
NBFCs 3.7 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.5 6.5 6.8 62.3 23.9 14.1 13.2 5.8 13.2 10.9 26.9 48.3 3.3 10.9 7.2 5.6 4.9 3.9 7.5 7.0 17.7 11.9
Personal Loans 19.3 19.0 18.4 18.4 18.6 19.4 21.3 22.8 24.8 26.0 19.5 12.9 13.6 15.5 12.5 19.4 16.4 17.8 16.9 5.3 17.6 14.8 18.8 20.0 29.7 41.5 41.6 48.6 44.3
Housing 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.5 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.7 19.3 12.3 13.2 18.4 16.2 18.8 15.2 13.3 18.4 4.9 9.0 7.3 9.3 12.1 20.1 21.7 20.7 19.3 28.3
Credit card 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 (10.2) 12.9 21.9 (0.2) 22.6 23.7 38.4 31.6 29.0 (1.8) (0.3) 0.4 0.8 (0.0) 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.8 3.0
Education 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 16.7 16.4 9.8 9.2 5.5 7.7 2.7 (0.5) (2.3) 1.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 (0.1) (0.1)
Vehicle 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 14.5 22.2 24.5 17.4 (4.5) 22.7 11.5 11.3 8.6 0.4 1.4 2.7 3.8 2.8 (1.3) 5.2 3.2 3.2 2.1
Other Personal Loans 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.6 7.1 42.0 8.1 11.1 12.6 18.2 25.2 27.0 35.3 21.9 (0.3) 6.7 2.0 3.1 3.2 8.3 11.0 14.6 22.3 14.6
Retail loan growth shines in an otherwise tepid growth environment

As highlighted in our previous reports, growth in retail loans continues to accelerate at a
strong pace driven by sharp rise in unsecured retail loans. As of January 2019, the overall
retail loans grew 17% yoy after a brief slowdown immediately post demonetization.
Housing loans, which slowed to 10% yoy in 1HFY18, has improved to 18% yoy while the
fastest recovery was in unsecured loan such as credit cards. Our broad outlook on the sector
growth remains unchanged that retail loans would be the mainstay source of growth for the
sector in the medium term despite this being close to the fourth year of continuous growth
in the sector.

Banks India
Banks have altered their strategy to grow their loans in the retail portfolio for two main
reasons: (1) the corporate loan-book recovery is likely to be anemic, in our view, as we are
yet to see any meaningful recovery in capex loans and (2) retail loans went through a cyclical
slowdown post FY2007, having gone through a period of solid growth after FY2002-03.
With rising NPLs and nascent analytical skills, most banks had to reassess their strategies.
With a slowdown in the economy, most banks shifted focus to corporate loans from the
retail segment. Over the past few years, retail consumer balance sheets have been far
stronger than corporate balance sheets, which resulted in negligible impairments over the
past few years. This has instilled confidence in banks to shift focus to retail.
Exhibit 11: Retail loan growth will be strong for the next few Exhibit 12: The contribution of retail loans to total loans will
years rise
Growth in retail loans, March fiscal year-ends, 2007-22E (%) Retail to overall loans, March fiscal year-ends, 2007-22E (%)
30 30
24 27
18 24
12 21
6 18
0 15
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2018
2019
2007
2010
2014
2017
2020E
2022E
2021E
2021E
2022E
2020E
2006
2007
2008
2011
2012
2013
2016
2017
2018
2009
2010
2014
2015
2019
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Expect retail loans to post 16% CAGR over FY2019-22E

Recent growth trends have been a bit above normalized levels as we had a low base
emerging post demonetization. The recent tightness in liquidity for NBFCs is acting as a
tailwind to the business as well. We expect this to result in retail loan growth at ~16%
CAGR for FY2019-22. We expect housing loans, which have grown by ~18% CAGR, to
grow at the lower end of the retail loan growth rates. Importantly, we expect growth in
housing loans to gradually shift away from the main centers of business.
Vehicle loans would be a function of these parameters: (1) underlying volume growth, which
we are building at 7% CAGR, (2) LTV where the headroom is not too high currently. We
note that financial institutions are already offering closer to 100% LTV on select product
segments, (3) used vehicle financing and top-up financing and (4) duration of loans where
again the headroom is not too high as financial institutions have increased this to ~42-50
months from ~35 months earlier.
Credit cards or unsecured loans will see the fastest growth at 30% CAGR in the retail
portfolio although its contribution from a size perspective would still be negligible at 5%
against 3.5% currently. While the size is insignificant, we are still bullish about this space,
considering it is expected to be a far more profitable portfolio than other products.

India Banks
Exhibit 13: Retail loans are likely to grow at 16% CAGR over the next few years
Growth in retail loans in recent years, March fiscal year-ends, 2003-22E (` bn)
Housing Consumer durables Loans against FD Credit cards Education Vehicle Others
40,000
32,000
24,000
16,000
8,000
-
2003 2007 2010 2019E 2022E
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Demand for corporate loans remains fairly subdued

We maintain our broad outlook on the weakness for corporate demand. We are still not too
optimistic on loan growth as balance sheets of most companies are still on the mend. The
following table (see Exhibit 14) broadly gives an indicative assessment of the weakness in
capital expenditure. While we do acknowledge that there is a large set of companies outside
our coverage building assets at this stage, we note that these companies too have indicated
a similar view on capital expenditure. While there is excitement that the investment cycle will
come back, which would result in higher credit demand, we think this is sometime away.
The slowdown that started in FY1998 extended for nearly five years (see Exhibit 15) and we
are broadly seeing something similar today. Loan growth in the corporate segment has
slowed to 6-8% yoy (see Exhibit 16), led by a large decline in the corporate segment. We are
not giving the subsequent few years because there were two major events that drove
growth, the reverse-merger of ICICI with ICICI Bank and IDBI with IDBI Bank. The two
entities helped to show much stronger growth in subsequent years.
Also, working capital cycles have expanded in recent years, implying an improvement in the
economy should initially result in lower working capital demand. Hence, our broad call is
that we are likely to see fairly subdued corporate loan demand.

Banks India
Exhibit 14: Corporate loan growth will revive going ahead Exhibit 15: A similar slowdown was seen over FY1998-2002 too
Corporate loan growth, March fiscal year-ends, 2007-22E (%) Corporate loan growth, March fiscal year-ends, 1998-2002 (%)
30.0 18
22.5 14
15.0 11
7.5 7
0.0 4
(7.5) 0
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2017
2018
2019
2009
2013
2016
2021E
2022E
2020E
1998
2002
1999
2000
2001
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 16: Growth in large corporate loans is muted Exhibit 17: Share of large corporate loans is stable around 82%
March fiscal year-ends, 2011-11MFY19 (%) March fiscal year-ends, 2011-11MFY19 (%)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11MFY19
Micro and small 2.4 12.2 20.0 22.5 9.1 (2.3) (0.5) 0.9 (0.7)
Micro and small Medium Large
Medium (11.8) 12.4 (5.2) 0.6 0.9 (9.3) (8.7) (1.1) 7.0 100
Large 32.1 22.4 15.8 12.2 5.3 4.3 (1.7) 0.8 6.1
Industry 23.0 20.3 14.9 12.8 5.6 2.7 (1.9) 0.7 5.1
80

60 79.6 81.0 81.7 81.2 80.9 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.7
40
20
7.3 6.8 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8
13.1 12.2 12.8 13.8 14.3 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.5
0
11MFY19
2014
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018

India Banks
Exhibit 18: There are no signs of pickup in investment activity in our universe of companies
Capital expenditure by sectors, March fiscal year-ends, 2011-20E (` bn)
YoY CAGR
2018 (2011-2018) (2019E-2020E)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E (%) (%) (%)
Energy 894 802 919 1,555 1,335 1,136 1,598 1,540 1,965 1,651 (4) 8 4
Automobiles 155 241 302 381 438 442 465 525 569 543 13 19 2
Utilities 512 481 621 667 483 703 779 367 472 501 (53) (5) 17
Metals & Mining 360 411 488 606 507 379 116 357 523 541 209 (0) 23
Telecom 391 254 228 319 609 534 594 391 466 457 (34) (0) 8
Industrials 148 168 173 135 109 52 56 86 65 106 54 (7) 11
Technology 53 71 92 90 117 132 165 141 123 105 (15) 15 (14)
Cement 66 99 135 120 121 89 (56) 315 129 171 (666) 25 (26)
Consumer products 73 78 79 66 76 70 99 78 76 73 (21) 1 (3)
Infrastructure 40 73 75 51 49 58 28 64 71 89 130 7 18
Others 20 22 21 20 24 33 29 44 37 33 54 12 (13)
Pharmaceuticals 30 32 33 38 56 76 95 62 44 42 (35) 11 (18)
Media (4) 3 6 4 1 7 7 3 14 5 (48) (199) 16
Real estate 16 15 3 (15) 17 38 (7) (134) (4) 11 1,832 NM NM
Internet 1 0 2 0 5 (4) 1 (0) 1 1 (114) NM NM
Total 2,755 2,749 3,177 4,037 3,948 3,745 3,968 3,838 4,550 4,328 (3) 5 6
Notes:
(a) The above sample for capital expenditure has been taken from a list of 130 companies that we have under coverage.
(b) The list includes companies where the capital expenditures are being done at their international subsidiaries/offices.
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

ADD
TCNS Clothing Co. (TCNSBR)
Consumer Durables & Apparel MARCH 13, 2019
CHANGE IN RECO.
Coverage view: Cautious
Trade show takeaways. We attended TCNS’ monsoon-festive 2019 trade show in Price (`): 800
New Delhi. Key takeaways: (1) TCNS is premiumizing its offerings across brands, Fair Value (`): 855
(2) focusing on new silhouettes from the earlier ‘straight’ look, and (3) utilizing new
BSE-30: 37,752
fabric and manufacturing techniques. We raise our FY2020-21 EPS estimates by 2-3%
on higher GM assumptions. A sharp run-up in stock price drives a downgrade in our
rating to ADD (BUY earlier), a higher fair value of Rs855 (Rs830 earlier) notwithstanding.
C o mpan y d ata an d valuatio n summary

TCNS Clothing Co.
Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2019E 2020E 2021E
52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 858-515 EPS (Rs) 21.0 22.1 27.1
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 49.1 EPS growth (%) 37.1 5.2 22.4
Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 38.1 36.2 29.6
Promoters 32.4 Sales (Rs bn) 11.5 13.8 16.3
FIIs 0.0 Net profits (Rs bn) 1.4 1.4 1.8
MFs 0.0 EBITDA (Rs bn) 1.9 2.4 3.0
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 25.5 19.4 15.3
Absolute 7.8 16.7 0.0 ROE (%) 26.3 21.0 20.2
Rel. to BSE-30 2.9 11.1 0.0 Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Monsoon-winter range: wider festive season offering at higher price points
TCNS’ monsoon-festive trade show featured ~250 styles of W, 300 styles of Aurelia and 50
styles of Wishful, which will find their way in stores July onwards. Our take on the collection:
(1) TCNS has introduced greater selection of full sets, as opposed to predominantly mix-and-
match collections earlier, (2) the festive range is wider and contains greater selection of pricier
items, and (3) wider range of Wishful with introduction of ‘Wishlist’, a premium occasion wear
range.
Attempting faster concept-to-store turnaround times for fast fashion categories
TCNS’ concept-to-store process takes ~6 months, which includes market research, design
process, procurement and manufacturing, commercial trade show and feedback, and final
shipment and launch. TCNS is now developing a fast fashion range as well, in order to quickly
adapt to latest fashion trends. These will be refreshed every 3-4 months and will mostly cater to
everyday workwear.
Omni-channel strategy to improve upsell opportunities within store
TCNS has introduced tablets at check-out points in select 20 stores in the country, with an aim
to display full looks to customers opting for a particular piece of topwear. This will be synced to
the company’s latest collection, and in case of unavailability of requisite SKUs at the store, the
customer will be offered home delivery of the product. TCNS believes this will provide them
with the opportunity to continuously upsell the product. The company will provide the required
training to store personnel before launching this across more stores.
Raise fair value to Rs855 but run-up in stock price drives a downgrade in rating to ADD
TCNS is diversifying its range to focus on providing complete ethnic wear solutions to women,
as opposed to focusing largely on workwear earlier. We believe this can provide TCNS with
Garima Mishra
larger acceptance, both from customers and channel partners. We increase our gross margin
assumptions by 25-50 bps as we believe TCNS will continue to see margin benefits from
improvised manufacturing techniques at scale. This drives a 2-3% upgrade in our FY2020-21
EPS, resulting in an increase in fair value to Rs855. 17% increase in stock price in the past three
months drives a downgrade in our rating to ADD from BUY.
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
Consumer Durables & Apparel TCNS Clothing Co.
Other takeaways from the trade show
 Use of new manufacturing techniques and fabric. TCNS highlighted that it is utilizing
several CAD-based advanced manufacturing techniques, resulting in a product which is
several notches more complex than competing brands or boutiques. It utilizes advanced
dyeing, processing and embroidery techniques, some of which are available with select
few Delhi-based manufacturers. It is also evolving beyond the usual cotton and polyester
fabrics, and is now using viscose blends, imported poly-fibers, as well as heavier fabric
such as jacquard and velvet into its dresses. Manufacturing is slowly shifting out of Delhi,
to cheaper priced locations, though meaningful impact on manufacturing costs will take
some time to show through.
 Inspiration from global fashion. Indian ethnic is being increasingly influenced by global
trends. While Indian sensibilities are still different, however, prints, cuts and silhouettes
are seeing western influences. Denim based topwear, for instance, is seeing good
demand from consumers, and Aurelia will carry an enhanced denimwear range in the
monsoon collection.
 Pricing. TCNS does not price its products on a cost-plus basis. Its attempt is to assess the
price a consumer would like to pay based on the look and feel of the product, and
competitive choices in the market. TCNS also aggressively looks to find techniques which
are scalable and cost efficient in order to drive lower COGS.
 Fit and design. TCNS believes this continues to be its biggest strength. Further, fit is a
very dynamic metric and difficult to get right as fit varies with different fabric type. TCNS,
with its wide experience has now mastered this, while competitors still continue to
grapple with the fit aspect. TCNS believes its market research driven design sensibilities
peg it ahead of the competition.
 Moving beyond the staple salwaar kameez. TCNS is now offering top-wear which
includes tops, kurtis and kurtas, as well as full ensembles, dresses, shrugs, stoles and
other add-ons appealing to a wider range of customers. We believe this will help drive
higher repeat buying from within its customers.
 Supply chain management. Timely sourcing of raw material is a challenge, given TCNS
has to deal with a large number of cloth mills and trim suppliers. It continues to source all
of its fabric, giving it greater control of the manufacturing process and the end product.

TCNS Clothing Co. Consumer Durables & Apparel
Higher GM assumptions drive a 2-3% EPS increase

We raise our FY2020-21 GM assumptions by 25-50 bps as we bake in TCNS’ efforts to
steadily premiumize its offering as well as use of manufacturing techniques which can save
costs. This results in a 2-3% increase in our FY2020-21 EPS estimates.
Exhibit 1: Higher GM assumptions drive a 2-3% EPS upgrade

Key changes to assumptions for TCNS, March fiscal year-ends
New estimates Old estimates % revision

2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Total
Revenue (Rs mn) 11,516 13,758 16,297 11,516 13,758 16,297 0.0 0.0 0.0
Revenue growth (%) 37 19 18 37 19 18
Gross profit (Rs mn) 7,736 9,318 11,094 7,736 9,281 11,006 0.0 0.4 0.8
Gross margin (%) 67.2 67.7 68.1 67.2 67.5 67.5
EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,889 2,433 3,002 1,889 2,396 2,914 0.0 1.6 3.0
EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 17.7 18.4 16.4 17.4 17.9
Adjusted EBITDA excl. ESOP
2,064 2,518 3,082 2,064 2,481 2,994 0.0 1.5 2.9
expense (Rs mn)
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) 17.9 18.3 18.9 17.9 18.0 18.4
Net Profit (Rs mn) 1,352 1,443 1,802 1,352 1,418 1,742 0 1.7453 3.3902
EPS (Rs) 21.0 22.1 27.1 21.0 21.7 26.2 — 1.7 3.4
EPS growth (%) 37 5 22 37 3 20
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
We value TCNS at 33X December 2020E P/E resulting in a fair value of Rs855. Sharp run-up
in stock price (17% in the past three months) drives a downgrade in our rating to ADD from
BUY.
Exhibit 2: Key assumptions for TCNS, March fiscal year-ends
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

Revenues
SSSG (%) 17.5 27.3 8.5 8.0 1.0 5.0 6.0
EBO count (#) 235 305 381 465 540 615 690
LFS count (#) 565 794 991 1,469 1,664 1,859 2,034
Total revenues (Rs mn) 1,284 1,696 3,010 4,861 7,110 8,424 11,516 13,758 16,297
Yoy growth (%) 32 77 62 46 18 37 19 18
Costs
Gross margin (%) 51.8 54.3 57.4 61.1 62.0 59.4 67.2 67.7 68.1
Employee cost as proportion of revenues (%) 13.1 13.0 11.8 32.4 21.6 14.7 12.5 11.2 11.0
Other costs as proportion of revenue (%) 26.9 28.7 28.7 29.5 29.7 26.3 38.3 38.9 38.7
EBITDA margin (%) 11.8 12.7 17.0 (0.8) 10.7 18.5 16.4 17.7 18.4
ESOP expense as proportion of revenue (%) — — — 18.5 10.4 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.5
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) 11.8 12.7 17.0 17.7 21.1 21.0 17.9 18.3 18.9

Consumer Durables & Apparel TCNS Clothing Co.
Exhibit 3: Condensed consolidated financials of TCNS, March fiscal year-ends, 2013-21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

Profit model
Revenue from operations 1,284 1,696 3,010 4,861 7,110 8,424 11,516 13,758 16,297
Gross profit 665 921 1,728 2,971 4,410 5,008 7,736 9,318 11,094
EBITDA 152 215 511 (39) 763 1,554 1,889 2,433 3,002
Adjusted EBITDA 152 215 511 860 1,499 1,770 2,064 2,518 3,082
Depreciation and amortisation expense (31) (40) (62) (89) (134) (167) (227) (309) (386)
EBIT 121 175 449 (128) 629 1,388 1,661 2,124 2,616
Other income 8 7 10 21 19 67 76 101 161
Finance costs (51) (49) (49) (29) (25) (7) (5) (5) (5)
Profit before tax 77 133 410 (136) 624 1,448 1,733 2,220 2,772
Taxation (30) (45) (147) (279) (466) (467) (381) (777) (970)
Profit after tax 48 87 263 (415) 158 981 1,352 1,443 1,802
Diluted EPS (Rs/share) 0.9 1.7 5.0 (7.9) 2.6 15.4 21.0 22.1 27.1
Weighted average number of shares - diluted (mn) 52 53 53 53 60 64 64 65 67
Balance sheet
Shareholders' funds 746 834 1,104 483 2,819 4,314 5,962 7,765 10,052
Total debt 308 342 398 382 86 2 — — —
Deferred tax liability — — — 96 — — — — —
Total shareholders' funds + liabilities 1,055 1,176 1,502 962 2,905 4,317 5,962 7,765 10,052
Net fixed assets 86 124 212 395 502 600 743 833 894
Inventory + debtors 1,059 1,203 1,544 2,013 2,937 3,708 5,048 6,031 7,144
Other current assets 119 171 260 408 446 735 987 1,179 1,396
Current liabilities + provisions 326 434 642 2,126 1,353 1,447 1,862 2,224 2,634
Total assets 1,055 1,176 1,502 962 2,905 4,317 5,962 7,765 10,052
Key ratios (%)
Revenue growth 27 77 62 46 18 37 19 18
EBITDA growth 42 138 NA NA 104 22 29 23
PAT growth 84 200 NA NA 521 38 7 25
Gross margin 52 54 57 61 62 59 67 68 68
EBITDA margin 12 13 17 (1) 11 18 16 18 18
Tax rate 39 34 36 (204) 75 32 22 35 35
Net debt/equity (X) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3)
RoAE 11 27 (52) 10 28 26 21 20
RoACE 11 22 (26) 8 27 26 21 20
Cash flow 12 13 17 (1) 11 18 16 18 18
Operating profit before working capital changes 121 156 374 556 897 1,385 1,759 1,842 2,273
Change in working capital/ other adjustments (69) (75) (234) (212) (646) (971) (1,178) (813) (920)
Capital expenditure (46) (81) (147) (271) (242) (274) (371) (398) (448)
Free cash flow 6 (1) (7) 74 9 140 211 631 905
Notes:
(a) Revenue estimates FY2019 onwards are based on IndAS-115 and are not comparable to previous years.

REDUCE
Lupin (LPC)
Pharmaceuticals MARCH 14, 2019
UPDATE
Coverage view: Neutral
Mandideep cephs unit receives an OAI. Lupin announced that the FDA has Price (`): 764
downgraded the status of its Mandideep (Unit-1) facility to OAI, which could potentially Fair Value (`): 820
trigger a warning letter. Given Lupin’s lingering FDA issues, this is a sentimentally
BSE-30: 37,752
negative outcome, though it has a limited bearing on financials, with no new filings
from the facility and no supply disruption expected given the seasonality, with cephs
basket down to <US$100 mn revenues in the US (<US$20 mn for sterile). REDUCE.
Company data and valuation summary
Lupin
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 345.7 EPS growth (%) (38.0) 40.1 40.0
MFs 6.5 EBITDA (Rs bn) 25.9 34.2 43.4
Absolute (3.5) (9.8) (2.1) ROE (%) 7.6 10.0 12.1
Rel. to BSE-30 (7.9) (14.2) (12.2) Div. Yield (%) 0.3 0.7 0.9
Mandideep cephalosporins unit receives OAI status – no financial impact

Lupin announced that its Mandideep facility (Unit-1) has been given an OAI (official action
indicated) status by the US FDA. This follows a Nov’18 inspection, which had resulted in 11
observations, mostly related to deficient aseptic practices in the sterile API and sterile
formulations areas. The OAI status means that the facility could potentially receive a warning
letter, though, we believe an import alert is unlikely at this stage. Given that Lupin is grappling
with two existing warning letters for Indore and Goa, the development is sentimentally
negative. A warning letter for Mandideep, will however, have limited financial implications, with
no new DMF or ANDA filings pending from the facility. On our estimates, Lupin’s cephs basket
is now down to less than US$100 mn revenues in the US and any supply disruptions will have
limited impact given the seasonality in the business (Dec-Mar is peak season), and given that
prils unit has not been downgraded to OAI. The sterile API and formulations (partnered with
Baxter) business could see disruptions, though, it is a negligible contributor for Lupin (<US$20 mn).
US bottoming out – growth now hinges on levothyroxine, ProAir and Solosec
Following several quarters of continued headwinds, US portfolio clearly bottoming out, led by
market share gains in several base business products, including lisinopril and cephs basket, with
minimal contribution from new launches (<US$15 mn quarterly contribution YTD). From here
on, launch schedule will gradually improve with Ranexa launch in 4QFY19, and levothyroxine
launch in 1QFY20, though, we expect sales to ramp in 2HFY20, once Lupin obtains
substitutability rating against all the brands in the market for Levo. Potential approval of ProAir
in 4QFY20 should be a significant trigger, signaling the entry in inhalation products. Solosec
generated US$3 mn in the quarter, with limited incremental progress on prescriptions, which
Chirag Talati, CFA
have stagnated at 1,500 per week, while net pricing declined to <US$170/TRx. We expect
Solosec to achieve sales of ~ US$80 mn in FY2021, with a positive contribution to EBITDA.
Estimates factor in a full recovery Kumar Gaurav
Following the recent sharp correction, Lupin is now trading at 23X and 17X FY2020/21 EPS,
though, adjusting for levo, the multiples are 25X and 19X. We trim our FY2020/21 estimates by
2-3% (not related to Mandideep). We believe Lupin is now approaching a reasonable valuation,
and any sharp correction on the back of potential regulatory action at Mandideep could present
an attractive entry point. REDUCE with a revised fair value of `820 (from `850 earlier).
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
Pharmaceuticals Lupin
Exhibit 1: FY2020 to see a pick-up in launches

March fiscal year-ends, 2013-22E (US$ mn)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Branded business 95 82 90 51 86 88 47 73 105 140
Limited competition/P-IV's/STFs 177 350 497 503 739 457 349 410 499 560
Gavis acquisition (ex-Methergine) — — — — 65 77 87 93 92 159
LPC Base business 396 372 359 361 330 287 295 315 335 355
Total sales 668 804 946 915 1,220 909 777 890 1,031 1,215
Growth % 27 20 18 (3) 33 (25) (15) 15 16 18
Branded as a % of sales 14 10 10 6 7 10 6 8 10 12
Limited competition as % of sales 26 44 53 55 61 50 45 46 48 46
Base business as % of sales 59 46 38 39 27 32 38 35 33 29
Source: Company
Exhibit 2: Filing momentum expected to continue

Number of ANDAs
3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Approvals
ANDA approvals - during the period 9 6 7 9 11 7 3 9 6 6 5 4 11
Cumulative ANDA approvals 133 180 187 196 207 214 217 225 231 235 240 247 258
Filings
ANDA filed - during the period 5 17 2 4 6 25 1 10 5 20 4 7 8
Cumulative ANDAs filed 225 343 336 338 344 369 368 377 382 398 402 405 412
Pending
ANDA - pending approval 92 163 149 142 137 155 151 152 151 163 162 158 154
Source: Company

Lupin Pharmaceuticals
Exhibit 3: Lupin – Segmental revenues

March fiscal year-ends, 2013-2021E (` mn)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Domestic formulations 23,643 24,796 29,679 33,916 37,986 41,253 47,028 53,142 59,519
Export formulations 60,516 75,577 84,737 90,985 121,687 103,415 103,202 114,747 128,906
US 36,234 48,871 56,953 59,376 82,626 58,939 53,992 64,116 74,212
- Branded 5,184 4,887 4,980 2,941 6,439 5,794 3,245 5,278 7,545
- Generics 31,050 43,984 52,391 55,514 76,276 53,841 50,747 58,837 66,667
Japan 13,040 12,954 13,239 13,646 17,740 20,764 21,803 22,675 23,582
Europe 2,357 3,119 3,262 4,278 5,472 5,937 6,234 6,857 7,766
South Africa 3,210 3,800 4,218 3,956 4,644 5,314 6,111 6,844 7,666
Others 5,675 6,833 7,065 9,729 11,205 12,461 15,062 14,255 15,681
API 9,498 11,178 11,941 12,074 11,833 10,901 14,171 15,588 16,368
Other operating income 1,795 2,000 1,702 5,069 3,745 2,443 3,000 2,915 2,750
Total 96,413 112,866 127,699 142,085 174,943 158,042 167,401 186,393 207,543
% yoy growth
Domestic formulations 24 5 20 14 12 9 14 13 12
Export formulations 42 25 12 7 34 (15) (0) 11 12
US 43 35 17 4 39 (29) (8) 19 16
- Branded (24) (6) 2 (41) 119 (10) (44) 63 43
- Generics 77 42 19 6 37 (29) (6) 16 13
Japan 52 (1) 2 3 30 17 5 4 4
Europe 19 32 5 31 28 8 5 10 13
South Africa 26 18 11 (6) 17 14 15 12 12
Others 57 20 3 38 15 11 21 (5) 10
API 12 18 7 1 (2) (8) 30 10 5
Other operating income 46 11 (15) 198 (26) (35) 23 (3) (6)
Total 35.6 17.1 13.1 11.3 23.1 (9.7) 5.9 11.3 11.3
% of sales
Domestic formulations 25 22 23 24 22 26 28 29 29
Export formulations 63 67 66 64 70 65 62 62 62
US 38 43 45 42 47 37 32 34 36
- Branded 5 4 4 2 4 4 2 3 4
- Generics 32 39 41 39 44 34 30 32 32
Japan 14 11 10 10 10 13 13 12 11
Europe 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
South Africa 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Others 6 6 6 7 6 8 9 8 8
API 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8
Other operating income 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 2 1
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities, Company

Pharmaceuticals Lupin
Exhibit 4: Lupin - Profit and loss, balance sheet and cash model
March fiscal year-ends, 2013-2021E (` mn)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Net revenues 96,413 112,866 127,699 142,085 174,943 158,042 167,401 186,393 207,543
Gross profit 60,933 74,693 86,129 98,991 124,929 105,298 108,041 121,298 136,529
Staff costs (12,488) (14,646) (17,473) (21,077) (28,495) (28,647) (31,798) (34,342) (36,918)
R&D expenses (7,098) (9,294) (10,998) (16,038) (23,101) (18,510) (15,985) (15,840) (16,560)
Other expenses (18,647) (20,724) (21,463) (24,341) (28,401) (26,665) (34,348) (36,925) (39,694)
EBITDA 22,700 30,029 36,195 37,535 44,932 31,475 25,909 34,191 43,357
Depreciation & amortisation (3,322) (2,610) (4,347) (4,635) (9,122) (10,859) (10,853) (11,848) (12,842)
EBIT 19,378 27,419 31,848 32,900 35,810 20,616 15,056 22,344 30,515
Net interest (411) (266) (98) (446) (1,525) (2,044) (2,922) (2,327) (1,732)
Other income 279 1,165 2,397 1,877 1,147 (13,105) 2,300 2,000 2,000
Profit before tax 19,246 28,318 34,147 34,330 35,432 5,468 14,434 22,016 30,783
Tax & deferred Tax (5,842) (9,622) (9,704) (11,536) (9,785) (2,885) (6,928) (7,045) (9,850)
Less: minority interest (262) (331) (412) (88) (72) (71) (71) (71) (71)
Net Income reported 13,142 18,365 24,031 22,707 25,575 2,513 7,435 14,900 20,861
Net Income adjusted 13,142 18,365 24,031 22,707 25,575 17,156 10,635 14,900 20,861
EPS reported (Rs) 29.4 40.8 53.4 50.5 56.8 5.6 16.5 33.1 46.4
EPS adjusted (Rs) 29.4 40.8 53.4 50.5 56.8 38.1 23.6 33.1 46.4
Balance sheet
Equity 52,636 69,985 88,982 110,165 135,321 136,171 142,491 155,156 172,888
Total borrowings 6,030 5,533 4,710 71,193 79,521 68,763 54,763 40,763 26,763
Other liabilities 30,472 26,542 37,686 43,020 51,231 58,120 63,642 67,058 70,879
Total liabilities 36,502 32,075 42,396 114,213 130,752 126,882 118,404 107,821 97,642
Total liabilities and equity 89,138 102,060 131,377 224,378 266,073 263,054 260,895 262,977 270,530
Net fixed assets 33,109 36,597 49,442 116,023 131,660 129,602 125,749 120,901 115,059
Investments 4,599 4,459 3,612 10,564 14,884 11,357 11,357 11,357 11,357
Cash 4,349 9,739 21,372 8,379 28,123 16,429 14,297 13,250 16,236
Other current assets 47,082 51,265 56,951 89,411 91,406 105,667 109,493 117,469 127,878
Total assets 89,138 102,060 131,377 224,378 266,073 263,054 260,895 262,977 270,530
Cashflow statement
Operating profit before working capital 23,443 32,422 37,716 39,509 47,579 33,290 25,216 33,793 43,554
Tax paid (5,439) (7,719) (9,436) (11,662) (11,490) (5,584) (6,235) (6,341) (8,865)
Change in working capital (5,494) (4,663) (949) (31,537) 5,059 (10,194) 1,003 (5,265) (7,573)
Capital expenditure (5,511) (5,286) (8,712) (11,750) (26,368) (15,534) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000)
Free cash flow 6,999 14,753 18,619 (15,440) 14,780 1,978 12,984 15,188 20,115
Margins and ratios
Gross profit margin (%) 63.2 66.2 67.4 69.7 71.4 66.6 64.5 65.1 65.8
EBITDA margin (%) 23.5 26.6 28.3 26.4 25.7 19.9 15.5 18.3 20.9
Tax rate (%) 30.4 34.0 28.4 33.6 27.6 52.8 48.0 32.0 32.0
RoAE (%) 28.1 30.0 30.2 22.8 20.8 1.9 5.3 10.0 12.7
RoACE (%) 32.8 36.2 33.9 19.3 17.5 9.7 7.3 10.7 14.2
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities, Company

SELL
Voltas (VOLT)
Consumer Durables & Apparel MARCH 14, 2019
UPDATE
Coverage view: Cautious
Takeaways from analyst meet. The company highlighted that industry demand Price (`): 618
trends are mixed so far with improvement in South India, which has helped reduce
inventory levels but demand in North India still remains subdued. Voltas continues to Fair Value (`): 500
focus on ‘customer-centric innovation’ and has launched a new range of adjustable BSE-30: 37,752
inverter ACs, which would help reduce power consumption and likely help Voltas gain
market share. While long-term growth prospects for the domestic AC industry remain
strong, we maintain our cautious stance on the stock due to expensive valuations.
Company data and valuation summary
Voltas
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 204.6 EPS growth (%) (5.2) 11.8 20.2
MFs 22.2 EBITDA (Rs bn) 7.1 8.1 9.3
Absolute 21.9 8.7 (3.3) ROE (%) 13.2 13.4 14.5
Rel. to BSE-30 16.3 3.5 (13.3) Div. Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.7
Key takeaways from the analyst meet
 Demand trends mixed so far; waiting for peak summer season: The company
highlighted that there was an improvement in demand in South India in the first two months
of 4QFY19 leading to reduction in overall inventory levels (will likely clear-off old inventory by
March). Demand in North India still remains subdued but Voltas is hopeful of pick-up from
end-March. There has not been any price increase in the industry yet; a strong summer
season will give the company an opportunity to take price increases to pass on cost pressures.
 New launches in inverter AC segment: Voltas has launched new adjustable inverter AC
SKUs ahead of the season; compressor’s running frequencies in these ACs can vary
depending on the number of people in the room and ambient weather conditions. It runs on
both 1 ton and 1.5 ton; thereby, reducing power consumption. With these new launches,
Voltas would have 40-45 SKUs in the inverter AC segment; the highest in the industry. We
note that new SKUs launched by Voltas are largely similar to that of dual inverter ACs
launched by LG in India. Inverter ACs account for 40% of the company’s split AC sales as
compared to a 50% mix for the industry. Based on the company’s overall market share (24%
in FY2019 so far) and segment mix, we estimate that Voltas would have around 18-19%
market share in the inverter AC segment (second largest player behind LG, which would
have 25%+ market share in inverter ACs).
 Update on Voltas-Beko JV: Voltas has launched 44 SKUs of refrigerators, 40 SKUs of

washing machines, 12 SKUs of microwaves and 7 SKUs of Dishwashers under the Voltas- Nishit Jalan
Beko brand. The company has finalized distribution agreements with most large MBOs in
metros and Tier-1 cities and the company will get more shelf space in the upcoming summer
Hitesh Goel
season (did not get enough shelf space in the last festive season). Post availability of a
complete range of products in the domestic appliances segment, Voltas will increase focus
on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities through franchisee outlets or company-owned shops. The JV is
Rishi Vora
currently sourcing products from China, Turkey and Thailand; the company’s plant will get
commissioned by December 2019.
 Other key points: (1) The company has expanded reach to around 15,000 touch points from
around 11,000 touch points five years back, (2) 25% of Voltas sales are on EMIs/interest
subventions as compared to 40% for the industry and (3) the company highlighted growth
opportunities in education, water management, hospital segment for the project business,
which will offset a potential slowdown in electrification order inflow going ahead. kspcg.research@kotak.com
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
Consumer Durables & Apparel Voltas
Exhibit 1: Voltas has improved its market share to 24% in 9MFY19 from 22% in 9MFY18
Market share for Voltas in multi-brand outlets for UCP segment, March fiscal year-ends, 2005-19 (%)
30
24.0
25
21.4 22.1
20.8 21.0
19.8
20 18.3 18.3 18.5
16.0 16.4 16.5
15 13.9 14.4
12.7
10
9QFY19
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2018
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Exhibit 2: We expect revenue growth in UCP industry to improve to double-digits over FY2020-21E
Segmental estimates for Voltas, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-21E (` mn)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Financials
Revenue 51,857 55,310 52,661 51,831 57,198 60,328 64,044 73,433 82,323 94,020
yoy growth (%) 0.2 6.7 (4.8) (1.6) 10.4 5.5 6.2 14.7 12.1 14.2
EBITDA 3,365 2,452 2,656 4,100 4,330 5,669 6,626 7,140 8,059 9,302
EBITDA margin (%) 6.5 4.4 5.0 7.9 7.6 9.4 10.3 9.7 9.8 9.9
PAT 3,125 1,950 2,239 3,381 3,582 5,163 5,718 5,423 6,064 7,288
Segmental
Electromechanical projects
Order inflow 25,872 26,265 25,854 24,895 28,498 30,620 37,432 37,432 44,918 51,656
yoy growth (%) (17.6) 1.5 (1.6) (3.7) 14.5 7.4 22.2 — 20.0 15.0
Order backlog 42,920 37,190 36,120 38,930 39,140 43,210 50,620 52,035 58,257 66,235
Revenue 31,832 31,995 26,924 22,085 28,288 26,550 28,452 36,017 38,696 43,678
yoy growth (%) 4.7 0.5 (15.8) (18.0) 28.1 (6.1) 7.2 26.6 7.4 12.9
EBIT (1,042) (491) (395) 228 550 849 1,854 3,169 3,096 3,494
EBIT margin (%) (3.3) (1.5) (1.5) 1.0 1.9 3.2 6.5 8.8 8.0 8.0
Engg products and services
Revenue 4,121 4,310 4,482 3,601 3,706 3,318 3,099 3,226 3,583 3,942
yoy growth (%) (26.9) 4.6 4.0 (19.7) 2.9 (10.5) (6.6) 4.1 11.1 10.0
EBIT 687 821 1,247 1,081 1,127 956 992 1,097 1,219 1,341
EBIT margin (%) 16.7 19.0 27.8 30.0 30.4 28.8 32.0 34.0 34.0 34.0
Unitary cooling products
Revenue 15,055 17,831 20,156 24,888 24,941 29,846 32,026 33,690 39,518 45,849
yoy growth (%) (1.4) 18.4 13.0 23.5 0.2 19.7 7.3 5.2 17.3 16.0
EBIT 1,298 1,727 2,519 3,491 3,381 4,403 4,749 3,841 4,742 5,502
EBIT margin (%) 8.6 9.7 12.5 14.0 13.6 14.8 14.8 11.4 12.0 12.0

Voltas Consumer Durables & Apparel
Exhibit 3: We arrive at an SoTP target price of Rs500/share including valuation for Arcelik JV
Sum-of-the-parts analysis of Voltas, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
Base case
Sales growth (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
EMP 28 (6) 7 27 7 13
EPS 3 (10) (7) 4 11 10
UCP 0 20 7 5 17 16
EBIT (Rs mn)
EMP 550 849 1,854 3,169 3,096 3,494
EPS 1,127 956 992 1,097 1,219 1,341
UCP 3,381 4,403 4,749 3,841 4,742 5,502
Others — — — — — —
Total 5,058 6,208 7,595 8,107 9,057 10,337
EBIT margin (%)
EMP 1.9 3.2 6.5 8.8 8.0 8.0
EPS 30.4 28.8 32.0 34.0 34.0 34.0
UCP 13.6 14.8 14.8 11.4 12.0 12.0
PBT (Rs mn)
EMP 432 694 1,535 2,580 2,604 2,986
EPS 885 781 821 893 1,025 1,146
UCP 2,654 3,597 3,932 3,127 3,990 4,702
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other income 1,305 2,313 1,717 1,530 1,658 1,853
Total 5,275 7,384 8,005 8,130 9,278 10,686
PAT (Rs mn)

EMP 293 505 1,100 1,871 1,823 2,090
EPS 600 569 589 648 718 802
UCP 1,801 2,621 2,817 2,267 2,793 3,291
Others 2 (217) (17) (472) (431) (193)
Other income 885 1,685 1,230 1,109 1,161 1,297
Total 3,582 5,163 5,718 5,423 6,064 7,288
P/E multiple (x)
EMP 16 16
EPS 16 16
UCP 30 30
Others 10 10
Other income 15 15
Mcap (Rs mn)
EMP 29,169 33,445
EPS 11,484 12,832
UCP 83,780 98,740
Others (4,305) (1,926)
Other income 17,412 19,451
Total 137,540 162,543
Value (Rs/share) 416 492

Value from Arcelik JV (Rs/share) 23 27
Total value (Rs/share) 439 518
Target price (Rs/share) 500
EPS exlcuding JV share (Rs/share) 17.3 17.8 19.6 22.6

P/E of Voltas ex-Arcelik JV (at target price) 28.0 24.3 20.9

Consumer Durables & Apparel Voltas
Exhibit 4: We value the contribution of Voltas-Arcelik JV at Rs26/share for Voltas

Estimated DCF valuation of JV between Voltas and Arcelik, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-36E (` mn)
2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2036E
Revenue model till FY2028 based on market growth and market share in India
Volumes ('000 units)
Microwaves 1,600 1,648 1,697 1,748 1,801 1,855 1,910 1,968 2,027 2,087
Refrigeration Appliances 15,451 16,688 17,522 18,398 19,318 19,897 20,494 21,109 21,742 22,395
Home Laundry Appliances 8,870 9,491 9,966 10,464 10,987 11,317 11,656 12,006 12,366 12,737
Volume growth (%)

Microwaves 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Refrigeration Appliances 8.0 8.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Home Laundry Appliances 7.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Average selling price inflation (%)

Microwaves 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Refrigeration Appliances 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Home Laundry Appliances 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Market share for Arcelik JV (%) 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0
FCFF calculation
Net revenue 2,809 6,345 10,494 15,430 21,274 27,650 34,946 37,862 46,890 50,819 79,992
Revenue growth (%) 125.9 65.4 47.0 37.9 30.0 26.4 8.3 23.8 8.4 5.0
EBIT (excl. other income) (657) (527) (35) 569 1,104 1,446 2,183 2,673 3,866 4,172 6,601
EBIT margin (%) (23.4) (8.3) (0.3) 3.7 5.2 5.2 6.2 7.1 8.2 8.2 8.3
Operating tax expense — — — 188 364 477 720 882 1,276 1,377 2,178
NOPLAT (657) (527) (35) 381 740 969 1,463 1,791 2,591 2,795 4,423
Depreciation 53 210 245 280 385 490 613 735 823 910 1,398
Change in working capital (277) (1) 48 103 360 70 80 32 99 43 42
Capital expenditure (500) — (2,000) — (3,250) — (3,000) — (1,250) — (974)
Free cash flow to the firm (1,381) (318) (1,742) 764 (1,765) 1,528 (845) 2,558 2,262 3,748 4,888
Key assumptions and value drivers

Effective tax rate (%) — — — 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0
Depreciation as % of gross block 1.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Gross FATR (%) 0.9 2.1 2.6 3.9 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.9
NWC ex-cash as % of sales 9.9 4.4 2.2 0.8 (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1)
DCF valuation
Terminal growth rate (%) 4.0
WACC (%) 12.0
EV and contribution to Voltas
Sum of discounted FCF 8,536 10,626
PV of terminal value 9,255 9,718
Enterprise value 17,791 20,344
Investments — —
Net debt / (cash) 2,416 2,812
Equity value 15,375 17,532
Equity value attributable to Voltas (50%) 7,688 8,766
Contribution to Voltas (Rs/share) 23 27
Contribution to Voltas on Dec-2019 basis (Rs/share) 26
Notes:
(1) We exclude ~25% dealer margin to calculate company revenues from retail sales estimates.
(2) Instead of directly using the US$100 mn of total equity contribution envisaged by the company over the next 10 years,
we arrive at required investments based on estimated sales and an eventual asset turnover ratio of 4X (in line with Whirlpool India).
(3) Based on the above estimates and modeling internal accruals as the first preference for incremental capex,
we conclude that the JV may need an eventual equity investment of only ~US$80 mn by FY2028 as opposed to US$100 mn stated by the company.
Source: Euromonitor (market size data), Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Voltas Consumer Durables & Apparel
Exhibit 5: We expect the company to deliver 16% EPS CAGR over FY2019-21E
Consolidated financials of Voltas, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-21E (` mn)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Profit model
Revenues 51,857 55,310 52,661 51,831 57,198 60,328 64,044 73,433 82,323 94,020
EBITDA 3,365 2,452 2,656 4,100 4,330 5,669 6,626 7,140 8,059 9,302
Other income 985 901 1,002 1,087 1,367 2,120 1,741 1,500 1,627 1,819
Depreciation (340) (278) (248) (280) (263) (245) (244) (250) (281) (307)
EBIT 4,010 3,075 3,410 4,907 5,433 7,545 8,124 8,390 9,406 10,814
Interest expenses (314) (398) (225) (233) (158) (160) (119) (260) (128) (128)
Pre-tax profit 3,696 2,677 3,184 4,675 5,275 7,384 8,005 8,130 9,278 10,686
Taxation (571) (728) (941) (1,276) (1,696) (2,004) (2,270) (2,236) (2,783) (3,206)
Adjusted PAT 3,125 1,950 2,243 3,398 3,580 5,380 5,735 5,894 6,494 7,480
Minority interest & Associate profits 0 — (5) (17) 2 (217) (17) (472) (431) (193)
Recurring PAT 3,125 1,950 2,239 3,381 3,582 5,163 5,718 5,423 6,064 7,288
Reported PAT 1,621 2,071 2,454 3,843 3,871 5,174 5,724 5,305 6,064 7,288
Recurring EPS (Rs) 9.4 5.9 6.8 10.2 10.8 15.6 17.3 16.4 18.3 22.0
Balance sheet
Shareholders funds 14,778 16,256 18,193 21,021 28,111 33,066 39,052 43,064 47,649 53,161
Minority Interest 170 118 138 161 267 285 317 363 411 461
Loan funds 2,252 2,612 2,629 1,217 2,707 1,709 1,423 1,423 1,423 1,423
Total sources of funds 17,200 18,987 20,960 22,398 31,085 35,061 40,792 44,850 49,483 55,044
Net fixed assets 2,185 2,110 2,103 1,935 2,050 1,825 1,842 2,092 2,311 2,504
Investments & Goodwill 4,006 4,962 8,119 11,737 20,471 23,858 28,706 28,964 29,158 29,158
Cash balances 2,710 3,498 2,818 2,516 1,855 3,314 2,837 5,583 8,815 12,884
Net current assets excluding cash 8,056 8,195 7,681 5,862 6,398 5,866 7,361 8,164 9,153 10,453
Total applications of funds 17,200 18,987 20,960 22,398 31,085 35,061 40,792 44,850 49,483 55,044
Cash flow statement
Operating cash flow 73 1,193 2,627 2,368 2,984 3,589 3,726 4,315 4,845 5,904
Working capital changes (2,745) (245) 327 737 (793) 692 (473) (803) (988) (1,300)
Capital expenditure (314) (438) (245) (344) (501) (257) (346) (500) (500) (500)
FCF (2,770) 630 2,620 4,926 1,885 3,880 2,802 2,752 3,229 3,975
Key ratios (%)
EBITDA margin 6.5 4.4 5.0 7.9 7.6 9.4 10.3 9.7 9.8 9.9
PAT margin 6.0 3.5 4.3 6.5 6.3 8.6 8.9 7.4 7.4 7.8
RoE 22.0 12.6 13.0 17.2 14.6 16.9 15.9 13.2 13.4 14.5
RoCE 20.9 12.4 12.0 16.4 13.8 16.0 15.3 13.1 13.0 14.1
Source:

CAUTIOUS
Consumer Staples
UPDATE
BSE-30: 37,752
Price hike in select foods/beverages. The KIE consumer universe, up 2%,

underperformed broader markets over the last month. RM trends were mixed for agri-
commodities while crude has started to rise. On the in-market activity front, we
witnessed a lull in pricing/promotions in key categories. We noticed price increases in
juices (Tropicana, Real Activ and Paperboat) and health drinks (Complan and Boost). We
retain our ‘tread selectively’ stance; top picks: JUBI, ITC, CLGT, MRCO, VBL.
Pricing and promotions—a lull; modest incremental activity
Refer to Exhibits 2 and 3 for pricing and promotional activity, respectively.
 Soaps/detergents. We did not witness any noticeable incremental price cuts or promotional
activity in soaps. Unilever has not responded to price cuts taken by GCPL on select SKUs of
soaps (largely for multi-packs of 3-5 soaps) earlier this year. Promotional activity in detergents
continues but nothing incremental to call out—HUVR, P&G and Jyothy Labs continue extra
grammage/price cuts on 1-4 kg SKUs (Exhibit 4). HUVR has increased price of Ala Fabric
whitener by 4%. Pricing and promotions in the dish wash category were largely stable.
 Personal care items. We have not witnessed any pricing action/incremental promotional
activity in oral care products, hair oils and shampoos. We note that HUVR has increased price
of Axe Dark Temptation deodorant by 5% and Fair & Lovely Advanced Multi Vitamin cream
by 3%. Dabur has increased the price of Odonil air fresheners by 4-6%.
 Food/beverage items. (1) Biscuits—pricing and promotions were steady, (2) Nestle has
increased price of Maggi oats noodles and Maggi Atta noodles by 3-4% and Lactogen
Babycereal No.1 by 4%, (3) GSK-CH has increased price of Boost by 3%, Kraft increased
price of Complan by 4% and Danone increased priced of Protinex by 3%. We note that this
follows price increases of 1-5% made by GSK-CH on Horlicks variants last month, (4) we
observed price increases in juices—Tropicana has increased prices by 4-11%, Paperboat has
increased prices by 11% and Dabur has increased price by 8% for Real Activ variant of
orange juice; no price increase from ITC as yet. Pepsico has increased price of 2.25L SKU of
Pepsi by 6% (we note that Coca cola increased prices of 1.75L SKU by 7% last month), and
(5) Mondelez has increased price of Cadbury Dairy Milk Silk chocolate bar by 8% and Choco
Crème biscuits by 3%. Pricing and promotional activity is largely stable in tea, edible oils and
dairy products.
RM trends—mixed for agri-commodities; crude fall provides relief
Refer to Exhibit 4 for detailed RM inflation impact. Rohit Chordia
 Agri-inputs. Agri-commodities remained mixed in January. India tea prices declined 10%
mom with global prices seeing a 3% mom drop. Maize prices remained flat. Moderate Jaykumar Doshi
inflation of 2-3% mom was seen in cocoa and sugar prices. Other agri-commodities like
coffee, wheat and barley saw a small price increase of 1% mom.
Aniket Sethi
 Oil commodities basket. Crude oil prices increased 5% mom in January following a decline
in the previous month. Crude continues to rise from these levels as well with spot at
US$67/bbl. PFAD and palm oil prices rose 25% and 8% mom, respectively. Copra and
coconut oil prices rose by 8% mom. LLP prices eased in January (down 12% mom)—
however, this fall should be temporary. Castor and menthe oil saw some price decline (down
2-3% mom) while rice bran and kardi oil saw a modest 1% mom price drop.
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
Consumer Staples India
 Other commodities. Other commodities generally saw mixed trends—caustic soda

prices were up 11% mom, followed by turpentine oil (up 11% mom) and soda ash (up
5% mom). Price decline was seen in LAB (down 8% mom), HDPE (down 6% mom) and
formaldehyde (down 4% mom).
 Who benefits? (1) Fall in a prices of few oils should benefit Marico, Dabur and Bajaj
Consumer. (2) Some easing of prices of a few chemicals should benefit APNT and PIDI.
 Who gets impacted? (1) Higher crude oil prices could hurt HUL, GCPL, JYL, APNT and
PIDI. (2) Increase in liquid milk prices could hurt Nestle, JUBI, BRIT and GSK-CH. (3)
Increase in copra prices is negative for Marico. (4) Increase in caustic soda and soda ash
prices could hurt HUVR, GCPL and JYL.
Sector (KIE consumer universe) underperforms the broader markets

Our overall consumer coverage slightly underperformed the broader markets over the past
month posting just 2% rise (compared to 5% increase in Sensex).
Key stocks that outperformed were—UNSP (up 11%), CDEL (up 11%), TGBL (up 10%), ITC
(up 7%), BRIT (up 7%) and GCPL (up 6%). Key underperformers were Bajaj Consumer
(down 7%), SHKL (down 4%) and GSK-CH (down 4%).
On a 12-month basis, the sector outperformed the broader markets posting 19% absolute
return (20% ex-ITC) versus 12% return for the broader markets. Our preferred picks—JUBI,
ITC, CLGT, MRCO and VBL.

India Consumer Staples
New launches/relaunches
 Jubilant launches ‘Hong’s Kitchen’. Jubilant Foodworks has launched its first own
brand ‘Hong’s Kitchen’. This marks the entry of the company into the Chinese cuisine
segment. The first restaurant has been opened in Eros mall, Gurugram. With this, the
company attempts to fill the gap between street vendors and fine dining restaurants in
the Chinese cuisine space.
 Cornitos (a product of Greendot Health Foods) has introduced on the Go nacho crisp
and dip packs. It comes in an easy-to -peel off tray having separate compartments for the
round nacho crisps and salsa dip. The On the Go pack, priced at Rs60 for 75g. It will be
available in two flavours—Peri Peri and Jalapeno.
 Radico launches its single malt brand in Delhi. Radico is launching its brand
Rampur—the Indian single malt. It will be available at select locations in New Delhi. It had
a global launch in Las Vegas in 2016 and soon gained global recognition. It is currently
available the world over and at select airport duty-free outlets.
 Danone India launches a high-protein drink with zero sugar. Danone India has
launched Proteinx Lite, as part of adult nutrition HFD portfolio. The product provides twin
benefits of high protein and zero sugar. Proteinx Lite is specially formulated with nutrients
known to help support weight management, active lifestyle, diabetes care and good
muscle health.
 Energy drink brand Hell launched. Hell, a Hungary-based energy drink brand, has
been launched in India. It contains real granulated sugar (which provides quick energy to
the body). It contains no preservatives and five types of Vitamin B (B2, B3, B5, B6 and
B12). The company said that its products are of exceptional quality and will be widely
available at affordable prices. The company has priced its energy drink at Rs45 for a 250
ml can.
 Britannia unveils Winkin’ Cow Thick Shakes in Tetrapak. Britannia has launched
Winkin’ Cow Thick shakes in 180ml Tetrapak packaging. Priced at Rs25, it is available
pan-India in four flavours—vanilla, choco, strawberry and mango.
 Nestle launches two new yoghurt variants. Nestlé India has launched two new
yoghurt-based products—Karela Raita and Banglar Mishti Doi. Banglar Mishti Doi is
deliciously indulgent, its rich creaminess enhanced with jaggery and caramel notes. Karela
Raita is made from low-fat milk and uses a proprietary bitter gourd (‘karela’) powder,
extracted from karela, to serve the goodness of karela in every pack.
 Cadbury launches a Hazelnut variant under the Silk brand. Cadbury has launched
Silk Hazelnut, a combination of rich creamy chocolate and whole Turkish hazelnuts. The
product is priced at Rs70 for 58 gram.
 Liril launches new range of body washes. Liril has launched a refreshing everyday
body wash containing essential oils for a relaxing experience. The product is launched in
three fragrances—berry blast, cooling mint and lemon & tea tree oil. The product is
priced at Rs180 for 250 ml.
 Pears launches new variants in body wash. Pears has come out with two variants in
the bodywash category—Soft and Fresh (with mint extracts) and oil-clear and glow (with
lemon flower extracts). The product is priced at Rs180 for 250 ml. The body washes are
made with 98% pure glycerin, is paraben and 100% soap free.

Other newsflow
 ITC seeks to get FMCG business to go faster. ITC is seeking to expand its FMCG
business in double digits next fiscal by quickening the pace of product launches,
deepening distribution into the rural hinterland, and building integrated hubs for output,
stocking and delivery of items such as cookies, packaged flour and soaps. Three of the
integrated consumer goods manufacturing and logistics (ICML) hubs, which the
conglomerate expects would lower operating costs and boost bottom-lines at the FMCG
business, should come up in FY2020.
 Patanjali distributors come under anti-profiteering lens. The National Anti-

profiteering Authority (NAA) has issued notices to about 10 of Patanjali’s biggest
distributors for not reducing prices in line with cuts in GST. Patanjali has already been
asked to pay Rs1.5 bn by the NAA. Investigations in the matter are ongoing and it is
learnt that the company may appeal against the decision.
 Kraft Heinz enters into distribution partnership with Indo Nissin Foods. Post the
successful completion of the sale of its non-core Indian brands Complan, Glucon-D, Nycil
and Sampriti to Zydus Cadila, Kraft Heinz has now entered into a distribution partnership
with Japanese food giant, Indo Nissin Foods. The partnership will target multiple channels
like retail, modern trade, government channels and e-commerce distribution avenues,
ensuring consumers have seamless access to the iconic Heinz Tomato Ketchup. The
partnership will also aim to open up new markets and introduce additional products from
the Kraft Heinz stable into the Indian market.
 Parle aims Rs 1-1.5 bn turnover from Nutricrunch in two years. Parle Products is
eyeing up to Rs1.5 bn turnover from its newly launched brand 'Nutricrunch' for health
conscious customers in the next 18-24 months. The company has re-entered healthy
biscuits space with Nutricrunch range after it exited the category six months ago and
discontinued its brand Simply Good. Nutricrunch range of products includes digestive
biscuits, honey and oats cookies, digestive Marie and lite cracker. The industry size of the
health biscuit and cookies category is about Rs10 bn and has been growing at ~15%.
 Britannia plans to give a salty twist to Time Pass brand. Britannia Industries plans to
enter the Rs240 bn per annum salty snacks market, which is dominated by Haldiram’s
and Pepsico. It plans to launch salty snacks under its existing brand Time Pass by next
month as part of a strategy to expand to non-biscuit segments.
 Coca-Cola announces 5-year sponsorship partnership with ICC. Coca-Cola on has

announced a five-year global sponsorship partnership with international cricketing body
ICC, as it seeks to leverage its association with cricket.
 ITC hikes prices of Bristol, Flake Excel and Capstan. As per media reports, ITC has
increased the price of three brands—Bristol, Flake Excel and Capstan. The prices have
been increased by about 7-14%.
 L’Oreal beats Godrej Consumer in urban hair color race. L’Oreal has emerged as the
largest hair color marketer in urban India in value ahead of GCPL, rising on mass brand
Garnier Black Naturals. According to Nielson, L’Oreal had a 25.8% market share in the
urban hair color market in value terms in 2018 against Godrej’s 24%. In 2017, Godrej
had 26.3% share against L'Oreal's 25.3%.

Exhibit 1: A snapshot of new launches and key new promotional campaigns

Exhibit 2: KIE Consumer Pricing monitor (continued)
MRP (Rs) Normalised price in Rs (adjusted for grammage changes) Change (%)
Category/Brand/SKU Company Feb-19 Norm Wt Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 1M 3M 6M 1Y
Soaps
Dove Moisturising Cream 3*100gm HUVR 172 100g 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 — — — —
Dove Moisturising Cream 75gm HUVR 49 100g 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 — — — —
Hamam 150gm HUVR 44 100g 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 — — — (5)
Lifebuoy Total 125gm HUVR 30 100g 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 — 3 3 11
Lifebuoy Total 3*90gm HUVR 65 100g 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 — — — —
Lux Creamy White 125gm HUVR 50 100g 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 — — — —
Pears Pure Gentle 3*125gm HUVR 164 100g 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 — — — —
Fiama Di Wills Mild Dew 3*115gm ITC 180 100g 40 40 39 39 39 39 52 52 52 52 52 52 — — 33 29
Cinthol Original 4*100gm GCPL 131 100g 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 31 33 33 33 — 5 (3) (3)
Cinthol Soap Lime Fresh 4*75gm GCPL 75 100g 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — (1) (1)
Godrej No 1 Lime & Aloevera (3+1) *100gm GCPL 64 100g 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 — (6) (11) (10)
Godrej No 1 Saffron & Milk Cream (3+1) *150gm GCPL 102 100g 18 18 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — 0 (6)
Ayush Purifying Turmeric Soap - 100 g HUVR 30 100g 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 — — —
Dettol soap Original 125 g Reckitt B. 50 100g 41 41 41 42 42 42 40 40 40 40 — — (6)
Santoor soap Sandal & Turmeric 4*100 g Wipro Cons 104 100g 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 — (4) (4)
Patanjali soap Neem Kanti 75 g Patanjali 15 100g 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — —
Margo soap Original neem 2*100 gm Jyothy Labs 56 100g 24 24 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 — — —
Shower Gels/Facewash/Handwash/Bodywash
Facewashes
Pears Pure & Gentle 60gm HUVR 125 100g 192 192 208 208 200 208 208 208 208 208 208 208 — — — 9
Lakme Blush and Glow Strawberry gel 50ml HUVR 105 100ml 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 210 210 210 — 6 6 6
Lakme Face Clnsr Deep Pore Cleanser 120ml HUVR 230 100ml 158 158 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 — — — 21
Dove Beauty Moisture 50gm HUVR 135 100g 240 240 250 250 270 270 270 270 250 270 270 270 — 8 0 13
Ponds Face Wash Daily 100G HUVR 140 100g 119 119 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 — — — 17
Fair & Lovely Fairness 50gm HUVR 60 100g 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 120 120 120 120 — 0 9 9
Olay Cleanser Total Effects Anti Ageing 100gm P&G 269 100g 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 269 — — — —
Himalaya Face Wash - Purifying Neem 100 ml Himalaya 120 100ml 117 117 117 117 117 117 120 120 120 120 — 0 3
Clean & Clear Natural Bright 100ml J&J 117 100ml 110 110 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 — — —
Garnier- Power White, Double Action 100ml L'Oreal 180 100ml 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 — — —
Handwash
Lifebuoy Total 10 Pump 190ml HUVR 82 100ml 36 36 36 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 — — — 19
Dettol - Germ Protection, Original Pump 200ml Reckitt B. 99 100ml 44 44 44 48 48 48 50 50 50 50 — — 4
Godrej Protekt Masterblaster Pump 300ml GCPL 89 100ml 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 — — —
Savlon Double Strength Pump 220ml ITC 80 100ml 34 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 — — —
Lifebuoy Total 10 Refill 750ml HUVR 175 100ml 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 — — —
Dettol - Germ Protection, Original Refill 750ml Reckitt B. 109 100ml 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — —
Godrej Protekt Masterblaster Refill 750ml GCPL 99 100ml 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — —
Savlon Double Strength Pump Refill 750ml ITC 99 100ml 23 23 23 23 23 23 13 13 13 13 — — (41)
Bodywash/ Shower Gels

Palmolive Absolute Relaxing 250ml Colgate P. 180 100ml 76 76 72 72 60 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 — — — (5)
Fiama Di Wills Lemongrass & Jojoba (Clr Sprng) 250ml ITC 199 100ml 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 — — — (0)
Lux Velvet Touch Moisturising 235ml HUVR 99 100ml 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — — 2
Pears Pure & Gentle 250M HUVR 180 100ml 74 74 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 — — — (3)
Cinthol Play Refreshing 200ml GCPL 150 100ml 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 — — — 25
Dove Deeply Nourishing 190ml HUVR 140 100ml 52 52 52 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 — — —
Nivea - Lemon & Oil 250ml Nivea 195 100ml 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 78 78 78 — (2) (2)
Detergents
Detergent Bars
Wheel Active 120gm HUVR 5 100g 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 — — — —
Rin Advance 75gm HUVR 5 100g 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — — —
Rin Advance 145gm HUVR 10 100g 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — — 3
Rin Advance 250gm HUVR 17 100g 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 — — 6 9
Surf Excel Bar 100gm HUVR 10 100g 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 — — — —
Surf Excel 250gm HUVR 27 100g 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 — — — 8
Surf Excel Det Bar 400gm HUVR 50 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — 4
Sunlight 150gm HUVR 20 100g 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — —
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities

Category/Brand/SKU Feb-19 Norm Wt Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 1M 3M 6M 1Y
Detergent Powders
Wheel Active Lemon & Jasmine 1Kg HUVR 53 100g 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — 6 10
Ghadi detergent 3Kg Ghari 162 100g 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — 0
Rin Advance 1Kg HUVR 75 100g 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — 1 7
Rin Advance 4Kg HUVR 330 100g 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — — 22
Tide Plus 1Kg P&G 102 100g 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 — — 4 9
Surf Excel Easy Wash 1.5Kg HUVR 174 100g 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 — — — 7
Henko Stain Champion 1Kg Jyothy Labs 112 100g 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 — — — 10
Surf Excel Quickwash 1Kg HUVR 170 100g 19 19 19 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — — (8)
Ariel Complete 1Kg P&G 249 100g 22 22 22 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — — 16
Rin Matic 1Kg HUVR 115 100g 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 — — — 5
Henko Lintelligent Matic - Top Load 1Kg Jyothy Labs 222 100g 19 19 19 19 19 19 23 22 22 22 — (1) 16
Henko Lintelligent Matic - Front Load 1Kg Jyothy Labs 212 100g 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 — — —
Surf Excel Matic Top Load 1Kg HUVR 225 100g 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 — — — 10
Surf Excel Matic Front Load 1Kg HUVR 250 100g 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — — 11
Ariel Matic Top Load 1 Kg P&G 199 100g 25 25 21 21 22 22 22 20 20 20 20 20 — — (9) (18)
Ariel Matic Front Load 1 Kg P&G 219 100g 22 22 24 24 24 24 22 22 22 22 — — (8)
Liquid detergents/Fabric Conditioners/Dishwash/ Floor Cleaners

Fabric Conditioners/Liquid detergents
Surf Excel Liquid Matic Top Load 1L HUVR 199 100ml 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — —
Surf Excel Liquid Matic Front Load 1L HUVR 225 100ml 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 — — —
Ariel Matic Liquid Detergent 750ml P&G 260 100ml 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 — — —
Ujala Supreme 250ml Jyothy Labs 65 100ml 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 — — —
Comfort Fabric Conditioner Anti Bacterial 200ml HUVR 56 100ml 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — 2 2
Ala Liquid Bleach Fabric Whitener 200ml HUVR 28 100ml 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 4 4 12 12
Ezee Detergent Liquid 500gm GCPL 90 100g 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 — — — —
Surf Det Liquid Excel Gentle Wash 200ml HUVR 62 100ml 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 — — — —
Dishwashing Bar/Gels/Powder
Vim Drop Dishwash Green Lime 500ml HUVR 110 100ml 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 — — — —
Pril Dishwash Liquid - Lime Green 500ml Jyothy Labs 107 100ml 23 23 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 — — 2
Dettol Dish/slab Gel, Lemon Splash 400ml Reckitt B. 131 100ml 30 30 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 — — —
Giffy D/W Liquid - Green Lime & Active salt 500ml Wipro Cons 105 100ml 23 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 — — 6
Vim Utensil Bar 300gm HUVR 20 100g 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — — (26)
Pril Dishwash Bar - Lime 360gm Jyothy Labs 99 100g 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — —
Exo Dish Wash Bar- Touch & Shine 700gm Jyothy Labs 63 100g 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 — — —
Floor Cleaners/Other Cleaners

Harpic toilet cleaner Original 1L Reckitt B. 160 100ml 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 — — 3
Domex Floor Cleaner Thick 500ml HUVR 89 100ml 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 — — 5 9
Sanifresh Toilet Cleaner Shine 1L Dabur 140 100ml 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 — — — 9
Oral Care
Toothpaste
Colgate Cdc 150gm Colgate P. 65 100g 41 41 41 41 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 — — — 5
Colgate Cibaca 175gm Colgate P. 50 100g 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 29 29 29 29 29 — — 9 9
Colgate Active Salt 100gm Colgate P. 49 100g 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 — — — —
Colgate Herbal 200G Colgate P. 93 100g 44 44 44 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 — — — 6
Colgate Maxfresh Blue 150gm Colgate P. 92 100g 59 59 53 59 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 — — — 5
Colgate Sensitive Pro Relief 70gm Colgate P. 115 100g 159 159 159 159 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 — — — —
Colgate Sensitive 80gm Colgate P. 99 100g 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 — — — —
Colgate Total Adv Health 120gm Colgate P. 92 100g 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 77 77 77 77 — — 8 8
Colgate Toothpaste Strawberry Barbie 80gm Colgate P. 82 100g 99 99 99 99 99 99 103 103 103 103 103 103 — — 4 4
Pepsodent 2 In 1 150gm HUVR 94 100g 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 — — — —
Pepsodent Germicheck 200gm HUVR 82 100g 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 — — 2 2
Pepsodent Gum Care 140gm HUVR 98 100g 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 — — — —
Pepsodent Exp Prot Complete 150gm HUVR 114 100g 76 76 76 76 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 — — — 7
Close Up Red 150gm HUVR 82 100g 53 53 53 53 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — — (5)
Babool 180gm Dabur 41 100g 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 — — — (7)
Dabur Red 200gm Dabur 95 100g 43 43 46 46 46 46 46 46 48 48 48 48 — — 3 10
Meswak 200gm Dabur 96 100g 45 45 47 47 47 47 47 47 48 48 48 48 — — 2 7
Sensodyne Fresh Gel 70gm GSK CH 105 100g 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 150 150 150 — 6 6 6
Sensodyne Toothpaste Rapid Relief 80gm GSK CH 150 100g 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 188 188 188 — 7 7 7
Lever Ayush Anti-cavity clove oil 150gm HUVR 75 100g 60 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 — — —
Colgate Swarna Vedshakti Natural 200gm Colgate P. 89 100g 50 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 — — —
Patanjali Dant Kanti 200gm Patanjali 75 100g 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 — — —
Vicco Vajradanti 200gm Vicco 110 100g 50 50 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — —
Himalaya complete care 100gm Himalaya 48 100g 50 50 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 — — —
Toothpowders
Colgate 200gm Colgate P. 69 100g 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 — — — —
Dabur Lal Dant Manjan 100gm Dabur 64 100g 38 38 38 38 40 40 40 40 40 43 43 43 — 7 7 12
Mouthwashes
Colgate Plax Complete Care 250ml Colgate P. 120 100ml 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 48 48 48 — 14 14 4
Colgate Plax Freshmint 250ml Colgate P. 120 100ml 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 48 48 48 — 14 14 4

MRP (Rs) Normalised price in Rs (adjusted for grammage changes) CIange (%)
Shampoo bottles
Clear Active Care Anti Dandruff 80ml HUVR 65 100ml 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 — — — 8
Clinic Plus Anti Dandruff 80ml HUVR 45 100ml 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 — — — —
Dove Dandruff Care 80ml HUVR 68 100ml 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 — — — —
Patanjali Kesh Kanti Anti-Dandruff 200ml Patanjali 110 100ml 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — —
Pure Derm Dandruff Protect 80ml HUVR 65 100ml 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 — — —
Tresemme Hair Fall Defense 185ml HUVR 105 100ml 73 73 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — — (24)

Head & Shoulders Anti Hair Fall 170ml P&G 145 100ml 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 — — — —
Pantene Hair Fall Control 340ml P&G 220 100ml 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 — — — (3)
Pure Derm Anti Hairfall 180ml HUVR 135 100ml 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 — — —
Clinic Plus Shmp Strong & Long 80ml HUVR 45 100ml 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 — — — —

Dove Daily Shine 80ml HUVR 62 100ml 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 — — — —
Sunsilk Black Shine 80ml HUVR 50 100ml 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 — — — —
Head & Shoulders Smooth & Silky 180ml P&G 145 100ml 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 — — — (9)
Pantene Long Black 180ml P&G 115 100ml 67 67 67 67 67 67 64 64 64 64 64 64 — — (4) (4)
Dabur Shmp Vatika Black Shine Amla 180ml Dabur 108 100ml 62 52 52 52 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — — (4)
Loreal Paris Total Repair 5 175ml L'oreal 135 100ml 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 — — —
Himalaya Protein- Gentle Daily Care 200ml Himalaya 130 100ml 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 2 2 2
Patanjali Kesh Kanti Natural Cleanser 200ml Patanjali 75 100ml 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 — — —
Skin Creams/Lotions/Talcs
Face Creams/Fairness Creams/Facial Cleanser
Fair & Lovely Advanced Multi Vitamin 50gm HUVR 98 100g 186 186 186 186 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 196 3 3 3 5
DABUR Gulabari Premium Rose water 120ml Dabur 199 100g 35 35 35 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 — — — 7
Nivea Crème 100ml Nivea 45 100ml 135 135 135 135 135 135 129 129 129 129 — 0 (4)
Nivea Soft Light Moisturiser 100ml Nivea 129 100ml 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 — — —
Ponds Light Light Moisturiser 150ml HUVR 150 100ml 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 — — —
Fair & Handsome Whitening Cream, Laser 12 15g Emami 50 100g 333 333 333 333 333 333 333 333 333 333 — — —
Anti-Ageing/Special Creams
Ponds Age Miracle Day Cream 50gm HUVR 649 100g 1,150 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 1,298 — — — 13
Olay Age Protect Anti Ageing Cream 40gm Olay 329 100g 873 873 873 873 823 823 823 823 823 823 823 823 — — — —
Olay Skin Total Effect Normal Cream 50gm Olay 849 100g 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 1,698 — — — —
Body Lotions
Lakme Peach Milk Moisture 200ml HUVR 310 100ml 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 — — — —
Dove Go Fresh Normal Skin 400ml HUVR 430 100ml 100 100 100 100 100 100 108 108 108 108 108 108 — — 8 8
Ponds Drm Flower 100ml HUVR 81 100ml 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 — — — —
Vaseline Healthy White 100ml HUVR 115 100ml 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 115 115 115 115 — 0 16 16
Talcs
Navratna Cool, Active Deo 100gm Emami 68 100g 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 — — —
AXE Talc Dark Temptation 100gm HUVR 65 100g 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 65 65 65 65 — 0 3 —
Ponds Talc Dream Flower Pink 100gm HUVR 80 100g 76 76 76 78 78 78 78 78 78 80 80 80 — 3 3 5
Cinthol Talc Original 100gm GCPL 55 100g 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — — —
Deodorants / Air Freshners

Deodorants
Axe Dark Temptation 150ml HUVR 200 100ml 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 133 5 5 5 5
Axe Deo Pulse 150ml HUVR 190 100ml 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 — — — —
Cinthol Deo Spray Dive 150ml GCPL 195 100ml 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 — — — —
Set Wet Deospray Rave 150ml Marico 149 100ml 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 — — — —
Fogg Fresh Spicy Block 150ml Vini 275 100ml 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 — — —
Engage Deo Spray - Urge 150ml ITC 190 100ml 130 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 — — —
Wild Stone Deo Red 150ml McNROE 199 100ml 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 — — —
Air Fresheners
Aer Freshner Car Cool Surf Blue Bx 45ml GCPL 379 100ml 632 632 842 842 842 842 842 842 842 842 842 842 — — — 33
Aer Freshner Cool Surf Blue Cn 300ml GCPL 149 100ml 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 — — — —
Godrej aer Pocket Bathroom Fragrance 10gm GCPL 55 50 50 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — —
Odonil Zipper Bathroom Air Freshener 10gm Dabur 52 45 45 45 45 45 50 50 50 50 52 4 4 16
Odonil Room Spray Home Freshener 200gm Dabur 149 100g 70 70 75 75 75 75 70 70 70 75 6 6 —
Home Insecticides
Coils/Machine/Mats
GK Mosquto Coil Low Smoke 12Hrs - 10 Coils GCPL 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 — — — —
Goodknight (GK) Machine Activ Combi GCPL 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 — — — —
Goodknight (GK) Mat Silver Power 30P GCPL 60 54 54 54 54 54 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — — 11
Mortein PowerGard 12 Hrs 10 Coils Reckitt B. 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 — — —
GK Activ + Liquid Ref - Lavender 45 ml (45 nights) GCPL 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 — — —
All Out Floral Refill - Power Plus 45 ml (45 nights) SC Johnson 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 — — —
Maxo Mosquito Repellent liquid 45 ml (45 nights) Jyothy Labs 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 — — —
Sprays/Aerosols
Hit Spray Cockroach Champion 320ml GCPL 160 100ml 47 47 47 48 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 — — — 7
Creams/Lotions
Good Knight Cool Gel 50gm GCPL 48 150 150 150 90 90 90 90 90 90 96 7 7 7
Odomos Mosquito Cream Natural 50gm Dabur 48 100g 94 94 94 94 94 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 — — — 2

MRP (Rs) Normalised price in Rs (adjusted for grammage changes) CIange (%)
Hair Oils
Coconut Oils
Parachute coconut oil 100ml Marico 39 100ml 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 — — — —
Parachute coconut oil 250ml Marico 105 100ml 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — — —
Dabur Vatika hair oil 75ml Dabur 42 100ml 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 — — — —
Dabur Anmol Gold 175ml Dabur 67 100ml 33 33 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 — — 3
Patanjali Coconut Oil 200ml Patanjali 72 100ml 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 — — —
Perfumed Hair Oils

Parachute Advansed hot oil 190ml Marico 110 100ml 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 — — — —
Parachute Advansed 80ml Marico 55 100ml 60 60 60 60 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 — — — 22
Parachute Jasmine 200ml Marico 92 100ml 41 41 41 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 — — — 12
Hair & Care 100ml Marico 60 100ml 55 55 55 55 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — — 9
Shanti Badam Amla 190ml Marico 50 100ml 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 — — — 6
Dabur Amla hair oil 100ml Dabur 44 100ml 44 44 43 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 — — — 10
Dabur Almond Hair Oil- Damage Free Hair Dabur 63 100ml 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 63 63 63 63 — — 5 5
Bajaj Almond hair oil 100ml Bajaj Corp 63 100ml 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 63 63 63 63 63 — — 5 5
Navratna Cooling oil 100ml Emami 75 100ml 70 70 70 70 70 70 75 75 75 75 75 75 — — 7 7
Patanjali Kesh Kanti 120ml Patanjali 130 100ml 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 — — —
Bajaj Coco Jasmine 180ml Bajaj Corp 75 100ml 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — —
Mens Grooming
Gillette Guard Razor P&G 23 1 pc 23 23 23 23 —
Gillette Guard Cartridge pack (6 pcs) P&G 50 1 pc 8 8 8 8 —
Gillette Vector Plus Razor P&G 60 1 pc 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — —
Gillette Vector Plus Cartridge pack (6 pcs) P&G 150 1 pc 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — —
Gillette Mach 3 Razor P&G 250 1 pc 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 250 250 250 — 39 39
Gillette Mach 3 Cartridge pack (4 pcs) P&G 475 1 pc 119 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 119 6 6 6
Gillette Fusion Razor P&G 350 1 pc 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 — — —
Gillette Fusion Cartridge pack (4 pcs) P&G 900 1 pc 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 225 — — —
Gillette Foam - Classic Regular 418gm P&G 199 100g 55 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 — — —
Godrej Shaving Cream Lime Fresh 60 gm GCPL 65 100g 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 — — —
Feminine hygiene
Whisper Sanitary Pads- Ultra Clean XL+ Wings (15 pcs) P&G 160 1 pc 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 — — —
Whisper - Choice Wings Regular P&G 78 1 pc 4 4 4 4 —
Whisper - Choice Ultra Wings XL P&G 118 1 pc 6 6 6 6 —
Stayfree SPs- Dry-Max All Night Ultra Xl Wings (14 pcs) J&J 172 1 pc 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 — — —
Sofy Sanitary Pads - Body Fit Antibacteria, XL (15 pcs) Unicharm 125 1 pc 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — —
Carefree Sanitary Pads - Regular (10pcs) J&J 74 1 pc 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 — — (1)
Baby Diapers
Pampers Diaper Pants - L (48 pcs) P&G 699 1 pc 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — —
Mamypoko Diaper Pants- L (46 pcs) Unicharm 699 1 pc 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — —
Huggies Diaper Pants- L (48 pcs) HUVR 699 1 pc 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — —

Edible Oils
Saffola Kardi Oil - 1L Marico 200 100ml 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — — 3
Saffola Tasty Blend - 1L Marico 135 100ml 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 — — — 4
Saffola Gold - 1L Marico 159 100ml 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 — — — 6
Saffola Active - 1L Marico 135 100ml 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 — — 4 4
Sundrop Heart - 1L Marico 210 100ml 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 — — — 2
Sundrop Nutrilite - 1L Marico 135 100ml 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 — — — 2
Sundrop Superlite Advanced -1L Marico 195 100ml 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 — — — 2
Sundrop Goldlite -1L Marico 140 100ml 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 — — — 2
Fortune Vivo- 1L Adani Wilmar 150 100ml 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — —
Emami Rice bran oil- 1L Emami 110 100ml 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 — — —
Tea/ Coffee
Tea
Red Label ctc 1kg HUVR 430 100g 41 41 41 41 41 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 — — — 5
Society Tea 1kg Amar Tea 415 100g 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — —
Red Label Natural Care Box 500gm HUVR 260 100g 48 48 50 50 50 50 50 52 52 52 52 52 — — 4 8
Tajmahal Ctc Box 250gm HUVR 142 100g 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 57 57 57 — 1 1 1
Agni Ctc Leaves 1kg TGBL 220 100g 20 20 20 20 20 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 — — — 10
Tata Ctc Gold 1kg TGBL 440 100g 42 42 42 42 42 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 — — — 5
Wagh Bakri Leaf Tea - Premium 1kg Wagh Bakri 425 100g 41 41 41 41 41 41 43 43 43 43 — — 4
Tea Bags/ Green Tea

Taj Mahal Tea Darjeeling Green Bag 10P HUVR 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — — —
Taj Mahal Tea Masala Flavoured Bags 10P HUVR 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 — — — —
Tata Tetly Tea Bag 25P TGBL 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 — — — —
Tata Tetly Tea Bag Grn Regular 10P TGBL 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — — —
Tata Tetley Green Tea Bag 30P TGBL 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 — — — (13)
Lipton Tea Bag Clear Green Jasmine 10P HUVR 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — — 9
Iced Tea
Lipton Instant Mix Ice Tea Lemon Pp 500gm HUVR 130 100g 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 — — — —
Nestea Ice Tea Lemon 500gm Nestle 165 100g 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 — — — —
Coffee
Bru Gold Jar 100gm HUVR 245 100g 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 245 — — — —
Bru Instant Jar 100gm HUVR 165 100g 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 — — — —
Nescafe Classic Box 200gm Nestle 460 100g 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 230 230 230 — 5 5 5
Nescafe Classic 50gm Nestle 135 100g 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 270 270 270 — 4 4 4
Sunrise Premium Jar 50gm Nestle 85 100g 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 170 170 170 — 6 6 (15)
Dairy
Milk/Condensed Milk/ Milk Powder
Nestle Condmilk Milkmaid 400gm Nestle 113 100g 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 — — — —
Nestle Milk Slim 1L Nestle 80 100ml 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — — —
Nestle Milk Toned A+ 1L Nestle 75 100ml 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — — —
Britannia Milk 1L Britannia 75 100ml 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — — —
Britannia Milk Slimz 1L Britannia 69 100ml 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — — —
Amul Taaza 1L Amul 60 100ml 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 — — — (3)
Amul Gold 1L Amul 64 100ml 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 — — — (3)
Amul Lite 1L Amul 72 100ml 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — — —
Everyday Milkpow Dairy Whitner Pouch 400gm Nestle 169 100g 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — — —
Yoghurt/Dahi
Nestle Dahi Slim 200gm Nestle 35 100g 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 — — — —
Britannia Dahi Daily Fresh 150gm Britannia 20 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — —
Britannia Dahi Low Fat 200gm Britannia 30 100g 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — — —
Butter/Cheese
Britannia Cheese Block 400gm Britannia 250 100g 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 — — —
Britannia Cheese Spread Classic 180gm Britannia 85 100g 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 — — — —
Amul Butter 500gm Amul 225 100g 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 — — — —
Amul Lite Butter 500gm Amul 145 100g 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 — — — —
Nutrilite Butter 500gm Zydus Cadila 180 100g 34 34 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 — — — 6
Amul cheese slice plain 200 gm Amul 118 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 — — —
Go cheese slice 200 gm Parag milk 125 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 — — —
Britannia cheese slice 200 gm Britannia 120 73 73 73 73 60 60 60 60 60 60 — — (17)
Cakes/ Desert Mixes

Britannia Cake Fruity Fun 60gm Britannia 15 100g 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — — 33

Feb-19 Norm Wt Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 1M 3M 6M 1Y
Health Drinks/ Juices/ Health Supplements/ OTCs
Health Drinks
Horlicks Chocolate Jar 500gm GSK CH 209 100g 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — — (3)
Horlicks Protein+ Chocolate, 400gm Jar GSK CH 520 100g 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 130 130 130 — 5 5
Horlicks Standard Jar 500gm GSK CH 235 100g 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 47 47 47 — 3 3 3
Bournvita Chocolate 500gm Jar Mondelez 217 100g 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 — 1 1
Complan Chocolate 450gm Jar Kraft Heinz 280 100g 57 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 62 4 4 4
Horlicks Mother's Vanilla 500 gm Jar GSK CH 499 100g 101 101 101 111 111 111 111 111 100 100 100 100 — — (10) (2)
Horlicks Womens Chocolate Jar 330gm GSK CH 295 100g 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 74 74 74 — 4 4 4
Boost Jar 450gm GSK CH 230 100g 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 51 3 3 3 3
Horlicks Growth+ Vanilla, 400gm Jar GSK CH 520 100g 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 — — —
Protinex- Chocolate 400gm Danone 535 100g 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 134 3 3 3
Pediasure- Complete & Balanced 400gm Abbott 520 100g 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 — — —
Juices
Real fruit power Orange 1L (Conc + added sugar) Dabur 99 100ml 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 — — — —
Real Activ 100% Orange 1L (from Conc | No added sugar) Dabur 130 100ml 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 8 8 8 8
Tropicana- Orange, 1 L (Conc + added sugar) Pepsi Co. 110 100ml 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
Tropicana 100% Orange 1L (from Conc; no added sugar) Pepsi Co. 135 100ml 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 4 4 4
B Natural Juice- Orange 1L (No Conc; incl added sugar) ITC 99 100ml 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 — — —
B Natural 100% pomegranate 1L (No Conc; no added sugar) ITC 199 100ml 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — —
Real Fruit power pomegranate 1L (Conc + added sugar) Dabur 109 100ml 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 — — —
Paper Boat drink- Aamras 1L Hector Bev. 110 100ml 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
Health Supplements/OTCs
Dabur Chyawanprash 1kg Dabur 310 100g 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 — — — 5
Dabur Digestive Hajmola Regular 120 P Dabur 35 30 30 30 30 30 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 — — 17 17
Dabur Glucose-D Jar 1kg Dabur 170 100g 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 17 — (8) (8) —
Dabur Honey 500gm Dabur 199 100g 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 — — 2 5
Patanjali Honey 500gm Patanjali 135 100g 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 7 7 7
Soft drinks (excl. juices)

Pepsi bottle 750ml Pepsi Co 40 100ml 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — —
Pepsi bottle 2.25L Pepsi Co 95 100ml 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6
Coca Cola bottle 750ml Coca-Cola 40 100ml 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — —
Coca Cola bottle 1.75L Coca-Cola 80 100ml 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 — 7 7
Thums up bottle 750ml Coca-Cola 40 100ml 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — —
Sprite bottle 750ml Coca-Cola 40 100ml 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — —
Sprite bottle 1.75L Coca-Cola 80 100ml 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 — 7 7
Maaza bottle 600ml Coca-Cola 38 100ml 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 — 3 3
Tropicana Mango Slice 600ml Pepsi Co 37 100ml 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 — — —
Frooti bottle 300ml Parle Agro 20 100ml 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — —
7 Up Nimbooz 350ml Pepsi Co 25 100ml 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 — — —
Baby Food
Cerelac Babycereal Rice S1 300gm Nestle 170 100g 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 — — — —
Cerelac Babycereal Wheat S1 300gm Nestle 169 100g 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 — — — —
Cerelac Babycereal Mltgrn 5 Fruit 300G Nestle 239 100g 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 — — — —
Cerelac Babycereal Multigrain Dal Veg 300gm Nestle 230 100g 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 — — — —
Cerelac Babycereal Mixed Fruit 300G Nestle 229 100g 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 — — — —
Lactogen Babycereal Nan 1 Frml 400gm Nestle 560 100g 135 135 135 135 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 — — — 4
Lactogen Babycereal No1 Rf 400G Nestle 314 100g 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 79 4 4 4 4

Biscuits/Atta
CreamBiscuits
Sunfeast Dark Fantasy Chocolate 100gm ITC 30 100g 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 — — — 33
Britannia Cream Jim Jam 150gm Britannia 35 100g 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 23 23 23 — 17 17 17
Britannia Cream Pure magic vanilla 150gm Britannia 30 100g 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 — — — 20
Britannia Cream Treat Bourbon 150gm Britannia 28 100g 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 — — — —
Sunfeast Cream Bourbon 150gm ITC 26 100g 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — — 30
Parle Cream Hide & Seek Bourbon 100gm Parle 25 100g 17 17 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 — — — 50
Parle Crm Bis Bourbon Kream 150gm Parle 25 100g 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — —
Oreo Choco Creme Biscuits 120gm Mondelez 30 100g 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 3 3 3
Britannia Tiger Cream Biscuits - Chocolate 43gm Britannia 5 100g 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 — — —
Sunfeast Special-bounce Cream Biscuits 83gm ITC 10 100g 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 — — —
Cookies/Healthy biscuits
Sunfeast Mom's Magic Cookie Butter 150gm ITC 20 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — —
Britannia Good Day Butter 150gm Britannia 22 100g 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — — 10
Britannia Cookies Good Day Cashew 100gm Britannia 20 100g 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — — —
Britannia NutriChoice Digestive 100gm Britannia 20 100g 19 19 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 — (20) (20) 5
Sunfeast Farmlite - Oats & Almonds 75gm ITC 25 100g 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 — — —
Marie/Glucose/Salted/Nice Biscuits
Sunfeast Marie Light 100gm ITC 10 100g 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 — — — —
Britannia Vita Marie Gold 150gm Britannia 20 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — —
Parle Makesmith Marie 100gm Parle 10 100g 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 — — — 11
Sunfeast Bisccuits Glucose 80gm ITC 5 100g 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 — — — —
Britannia Tiger 124gm Britannia 10 100g 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 — — 1 7
Parle Glucose 130gm Parle 10 100g 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 — — 8 8
Sunfeast Snacky Salted 80gm ITC 10 100g 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 — — — —
Parle Salted Krackjack 80gm Parle 10 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — —
Parle Salted Monaco Classic 80gm Parle 10 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — —
Britannia 50-50 Maska Chaska 50gm Britannia 10 100g 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — — —
Sunfeast Plain Nice 150gm ITC 25 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — 25 25
Britannia Nice Time 150gm Britannia 25 100g 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — — 14
Breakfast snacks
Marico Saffola Oats 1Kg Marico 185 100g 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 — — — 3
Kelloggs Corn Flakes Original 475gm Kelloggs 180 100g 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 — 3 3
Bagrrys Muesli - Crunchy 500gm Bagrrys India 290 100g 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 — — —
Quaker Oats 1kg Pepsi Co. 186 100g 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 — — —
Atta
Aashirvaad Atta Multigrain 5kg ITC 285 100g 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 — — — 4
Aashirvaad Atta Whole Wheat 5kg ITC 235 100g 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 — — — 4
Soups/Sauces/Spreads
Ketchup/Sauces/Spreads
Kissan Ketchup Fresh Tomato Bt 1kg HUVR 130 100g 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 — — — 4
Kissan Sauce no onion no garlic 1K HUVR 147 100g 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 — — — —
Spreads/Jams
Nutella Hazelnut Spread with Cocoa 160gm Jar Ferrero 200 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 — — —
Kissan Jam Mixed Fruit 200gm HUVR 62 100g 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 — 3 3 3
Sundrop Peanut Butter Creamy 508gm Jar Agro tech 215 40 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 — — —
Soups
Knorr Classic Thick Tomato 61gm HUVR 55 100g 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 — — — (10)
Maggi Sweet Corn Vegetable 45gm Nestle 45 100g 125 125 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 — — — (20)
Chocolate bars
Nestle Kit Kat 76.8gm Nestle 60 100g 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 — — — —
Nestle Munch Home Pk 72gm Nestle 60 100g 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 — — — (4)
Nestle Milk 19.8gm Nestle 10 100g 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 — — — —
Nestle Bar One 22gm Nestle 10 100g 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 — — — —
Nestle Munch crunchiest ever 20.1g Nestle 10 100g 58 58 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 — — — (14)
Cadbury Dairy Milk 12gm Mondelez 10 100g 83 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 — — —
Cadbury Dairy Milk Silk 60gm Mondelez 65 100g 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 117 8 8 8
Cadbury 5 Star 19.5gm Mondelez 10 100g 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 — — —
Cadbury Perk 28gm Mondelez 10 100g 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 — — —
Kinder Joy 20gm Ferrero 40 100g 185 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 — — —
Ferrero Rocher 16pcs 200gm box Ferrero 499 100g 220 238 238 238 238 238 250 250 250 250 — — 5
Noodles
Noodles
Maggi Masala 70gm Nestle 12 100g 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 — — — 9
Maggi Masala 140gm Nestle 23 100g 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 — — — 5
Maggi Masala 280gm Nestle 45 100g 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 — 2 2 2
Maggi oats noodles 300gm Nestle 98 100g 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 33 3 3 3
Maggi Chicken 284gm Nestle 55 100g 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 — — — —
Maggi Cuppa Mania Yo Masala 70gm Nestle 40 100g 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 — — — —
Maggi Atta masala 300gm Nestle 78 100g 23 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 4 4 4 11
Sunfeast Yippee Classic Masala 70gm ITC 10 100g 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 — — —
Sunfeast Yippee Magic Masala 70gm ITC 10 100g 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 17 17 — 17 17 25
Sunfeast Yippee Mood Masala 65gm ITC 15 100g 21 21 21 21 21 21 23 23 23 23 — — 8
Knorr Soupy Mast Masala Pp 75gm HUVR 15 100g 17 17 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — — — 17

Exhibit 3: Ongoing promotional activity across FMCG categories in Feb 2019
MRP (Rs)
SKU Original Offer Eff change (%) Promotional offer
Soaps
Pears soap 125gm 67 67 (16.7) Free 20% extra
Pears soap 75gm 40 40 (25.0) Free 33% extra
Detergents/Dishwash
Tide detergent bar 125gm 10 10 (16.7) Free 20% extra
Rin detergent bar 150gm 10 10 (11.8) Free 13.3% extra
Surf Excel matic Top load detergent powder 4Kg 948 948 (33.3) Free 50% extra
Surf Excel matic Front load detergent powder 4Kg 1048 1048 (33.3) Free 50% extra
Ariel Excel matic Top load detergent powder 4Kg 898 898 (33.3) Free 50% extra
Ariel Excel matic Front load detergent powder 4Kg 998 998 (33.3) Free 50% extra
Ariel Excel matic Top load detergent powder 3Kg 747 597 (20.1) Price off Rs150; 20% discount
Ariel Excel matic Front load detergent powder 3Kg 795 645 (18.9) Price off Rs150; 19% discount
Surf Excel matic Top load detergent powder 2Kg 449 449 Free Surf Excel Liquid Detergent - Matic, Top Load 500 ml worth Rs99
Surf Excel matic Front load detergent powder 2Kg 480 480 Free Surf Excel Liquid Detergent - Matic, Front Load 500 ml worth Rs115
Ariel Excel matic Top load detergent powder 1Kg 259 199 (23.2) Price off Rs60; 23% discount
Ariel Excel matic Front load detergent powder 1Kg 279 239 (14.3) Price off Rs40; 15% discount
Ariel Complete detergent powder 2Kg 498 498 (33.3) Free 50% (1Kg) extra
Ariel Complete detergent powder 1Kg 249 249 (33.3) Free 50% (500gm) extra
Ariel Colour detergent powder 500gm 498 498 (28.6) Free 40% (200gm) extra
Henko Lintelligent Matic - Top Load detergent powder 1Kg 225 225 (33.3) Free 50% (500gm) extra
Henko Lintelligent Matic - Front Load detergent powder 1Kg 250 250 (33.3) Free 50% (500gm) extra
Henko Stain Champion 1Kg 138 112 (18.8) Price off Rs26; 18.8% discount
Henko Stain Champion 3Kg 414 414 (25.0) Free 33% extra
Biscuits/Cakes
Britannia Good Day Butter cookies 53gm 10 10 (29.3) Free 41% (22gm) extra
Britannia Good Day Cashew cookies 53gm 10 10 (11.7) Free 13% (7gm) extra
Britannia Good Day Chocochip cookies 44gm 10 10 (21.4) Free 27% (12 gm) extra
Britannia Marie Gold 68gm 10 10 (23.6) Free 30% extra
Britannia Nutrichoice Digestive 150gm 35 35 (25.0) Free 33% extra
Parle Nutrichoice Digestive 100gm 20 20 (16.7) Free 20% (20gm) extra
Sunfeast Mom's Magic Rich butter cookies 60gm 10 10 (20.0) Free 25% extra
Sunfeast Mom's Magic Cashew & Almond cookies 50gm 10 10 (17.8) Free 21% extra

Exhibit 4: Monthly raw material trends for January 2019
Inflationary = +3%
% chg - local currency % chg - currency Adj. Deflationary = -3%
No Commodity Unit Current MoM 3M 6M YoY MoM 3M 6M YoY Companies impacted
Agri Commodities
1 Tea - India Avg. Rs/Kg 130 (10) (9) (14) 6 (10) (9) (14) 6 HUL, TGBL
2 Tea - World Avg. USD/MT 2,550 (3) (7) (12) (16) (3) (11) (9) (7) HUL, TGBL
3 Tea - Mombassa/Kenya USD/Kg 3 (0) (5) (8) (22) (0) (9) (5) (14) HUL, TGBL
4 Coffee Arabica - Intl. US cents/Pound 133 1 (6) (0) (8) 1 (9) 3 2 HUL, Nestle, TGBL
5 Coffee Robusta - Intl. US cents/Pound 82 1 (7) (7) (12) 1 (11) (4) (2) HUL, Nestle, TGBL
6 Sugar - domestic Rs/Q uintal 3,423 2 (1) (4) (3) 2 (1) (4) (3) HUL, Nestle, GSKCHL, ITC, Dabur, Britannia
7 Wheat Rs/Q uintal 2,735 1 2 9 14 1 2 9 14 ITC, Nestle, GSKCHL, Britannia
8 Barley Rs/Q uintal 1,930 1 3 24 29 1 3 24 29 GSKCHL
9 Maize (corn) USD/MT 167 (0) 4 7 7 (0) (0) 10 19 Colgate, HUL, Dabur (Sorbitol)
10 Liquid Milk - domestic Rs/Ltr 36 6 16 3 13— 6 16 3 13— Nestle, GSKCHL, Jubilant Foodworks, Britannia
11 Milk Powder - domestic Rs/Kg 276 6 13 9 9 6 13 9 9 Nestle, GSKCHL, Britannia
12 Cocoa Bean USD/MT 2,340 3 8 (3) 15 3 4 (0) 27 Nestle
Oil Commodities
13 Crude O il - Brent USD/Barrel 59 5 (26) (20) (14) 5 (29) (18) (5) HUL, GCPL, Jyothy Labs, Asian Paints, Pidilite
14 Palm oil Rs/MT 53,939 8 (9) (14) (3) 8 (9) (14) (3) HUL, GCPL, Jyothy Labs
15 PFAD USD/MT 417 25 (7) (15) (33) 25 (10) (12) (26) HUL, GCPL, Jyothy Labs
16 Light liquid paraffin (LLP) Rs/Ltr 44 (12) (20) (9) (11) (12) (20) (9) (11) Marico, Dabur, Bajaj Corp
17 Copra Rs/Q uintal 11,500 8 21 (3) (20) 8 21 (3) (20) Marico, Dabur
18 Coconut oil Rs/Q uintal 16,200 10 13 (4) (16) 10 13 (4) (16) Marico, Dabur
19 Rice Bran oil Rs/10Kg 597 (1) (12) (14) 2 (1) (12) (14) 2 Marico
20 Kardi oil/ Safflower oil Rs/MT 1,565 (1) 23 23 6 (1) 23 23 6 Marico
21 Sunflower oil Rs/MT 72,652 1 (5) (4) 10 1 (5) (4) 10 Marico
22 Groundnut oil Rs/MT 97,935 0 6 15 5 0 6 15 5 Marico
23 Linseed oil Rs/MT 85,304 (4) (5) (3) 7 (4) (5) (3) 7 Marico, Dabur, Bajaj Corp, Asian Paints
24 Castor oil Rs/MT 107,218 (2) 5 18 22 (2) 5 18 22 Marico, Dabur, Bajaj Corp, Asian Paints
25 Mentha oil Rs/Kg 1,979 (3) (7) 8 18 (3) (7) 8 18 Emami, Colgate, HUL, Dabur
Chemicals/Paints/Other Commodities
26 Caustic soda Rs/ 50Kg 2,136 11 (9) (2) (15) 11 (9) (2) (15) HUL, GCPL, Jyothy Labs
27 Soda ash Rs/ 50Kg 1,340 5 (9) 15 13 5 (9) 15 13 HUL, GCPL, Jyothy Labs
28 LAB Rs/Kg 101 (8) (16) (9) (3) (8) (16) (9) (3) HUL, Jyothy Labs
29 HDPE - domestic Rs/Kg 103 (6) (19) (19) (3) (6) (19) (19) (3) All companies
30 PAN Rs/Kg 77 (2) (4) (4) 10 (2) (4) (4) 10 Asian Paints
31 PENTA Rs/Kg 115 — — — — — — — — Asian Paints
32 Tio2 Anatese Rs/Kg 163 (3) (3) (3) (12) (3) (3) (3) (12) Asian Paints
33 Tio2 Rutile Rs/Kg 217 1 (2) 1 3 1 (2) 1 3 Asian Paints
34 Tio2 Dupont Rs/Kg 274 (1) 3 4 14 (1) 3 4 14 Asian Paints
35 Turpentine oil Rs/Ltr 113 11 13 5 41 11 13 5 41 Asian Paints
36 Formaldehyde Rs/Kg 26 (4) (10) — 8 (4) (10) - 8 Asian Paints
37 Acrylic acid Rs/Kg 119 (2) (5) (5) 17 (2) (5) (5) 17 Asian Paints
38 Vinyl Acetate - Domestic Rs/Kg 70 1 (18) (28) (24) 1 (18) (28) (24) Asian Paints
39 Vinyl Acetate - China US$/MT 1,042 (11) (8) (21) (14) (11) (12) (19) (4) Pidilite, Asian Paints
40 Styrene - domestic Rs/Kg 83 2 (19) (17) (21) 2 (19) (17) (21) Asian Paints
41 Gold Rs/10gm 32,215 3 2 7 8 3 2 7 8 Titan, Jewellery companies
42 Diamond price index USD/Carrat 121 0 (0) 0 3 0 (4) 3 15 Titan, Jewellery companies

Exhibit 5: KIE consumer universe valuation summary
Upside /
(downside)
FV 13-Mar-19 Mkt cap. EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) PER (x) EPS Sales
Company Rating (Rs) Price (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ m) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E CAGR - (2019-21E), %
Asian Paints REDUCE 1,225 1,420 (14) 1,370 19,296 24.3 30.5 36.2 18.6 25.1 18.9 58.7 46.9 39.4 22.0 16.6
Bajaj Consumer Care ADD 405 351 15 52 729 15.4 17.0 18.5 7.8 10.1 9.1 22.8 20.7 18.9 9.6 12.3
Britannia Industries REDUCE 2,935 3,127 (6) 750 10,570 49.8 60.1 71.1 18.9 20.8 18.2 62.9 52.0 44.0 19.5 14.3
Coffee day Enterprises NR - 297 NM 61 863 7.8 10.4 12.8 126.6 33.6 23.5 38.3 28.6 23.2 28.5 11.5
Colgate-Palmolive (India) ADD 1,400 1,276 10 347 4,889 27.5 31.9 37.3 15.5 16.2 16.8 46.5 40.0 34.2 16.5 13.4
Dabur India REDUCE 390 442 (12) 776 10,924 8.8 10.3 11.9 12.8 17.5 15.9 50.2 42.8 37.1 16.7 13.5
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer RS NA 7,245 NM 305 4,291 224.0 239.8 265.2 34.6 7.1 10.6 32.3 30.2 27.3 8.8 11.6
Godrej Consumer Products REDUCE 700 724 (3) 739 10,415 15.2 18.0 20.9 6.6 18.7 15.9 47.7 40.2 34.7 17.3 11.7
Hindustan Unilever REDUCE 1,600 1,748 (8) 3,782 53,270 28.8 33.8 38.5 17.5 17.6 13.8 60.7 51.7 45.4 15.7 12.5
ITC ADD 325 295 10 3,605 50,768 9.8 11.0 12.2 10.4 11.3 11.8 30.0 26.9 24.1 11.6 9.0
Jubilant Foodworks BUY 1,450 1,372 6 175 2,466 24.4 32.3 42.0 67.4 32.5 30.2 54.5 41.1 32.6 31.4 17.5
Jyothy Laboratories ADD 210 187 12 68 957 5.5 6.2 7.2 24.4 13.8 16.2 34.1 30.0 25.8 15.0 13.2
Marico ADD 380 343 11 443 6,233 7.2 8.8 10.3 13.7 22.9 16.9 47.8 38.9 33.3 19.9 13.0
Nestle India REDUCE 10,600 10,723 (1) 1,034 14,563 166.7 193.7 220.1 31.2 16.2 13.7 64.3 55.4 48.7 14.9 12.4
Page Industries SELL 22,300 23,903 (7) 267 3,755 397.3 479.4 578.3 27.7 20.7 20.6 60.2 49.9 41.3 20.6 18.9
Pidilite Industries REDUCE 1,025 1,176 (13) 603 8,495 17.9 23.5 28.1 (0.7) 31.0 19.7 65.7 50.1 41.9 25.3 14.4
S H Kelkar BUY 210 152 38 22 310 6.3 8.3 9.8 (14.6) 31.9 17.9 24.1 18.2 15.5 24.7 14.7
Tata Global Beverages ADD 220 203 8 128 1,804 7.3 8.7 9.8 (0.0) 17.9 13.0 27.6 23.4 20.7 15.4 6.0
Titan Co. REDUCE 900 1,078 (17) 957 13,483 17.0 21.4 25.3 35.5 25.7 18.5 63.5 50.5 42.6 22.0 19.0
United Breweries REDUCE 1,390 1,373 1 363 5,114 23.8 29.9 36.9 59.2 25.9 23.1 57.7 45.9 37.3 24.5 13.5
United Spirits REDUCE 550 576 (5) 419 5,899 10.9 13.3 16.6 43.6 21.9 24.9 52.8 43.3 34.6 23.4 9.8
Varun Beverages BUY 900 812 11 148 2,085 16.1 19.5 25.9 39.3 21.5 32.9 50.5 41.6 31.3 27.1 30.4
KIE universe 16,414 231,178 16.8 17.1 15.2 46.6 39.8 34.6 16.2 13.3
KIE universe (ex-ITC) 12,661 178,325 20.4 20.0 16.9 54.8 45.6 39.0 18.4 14.2
Price performance (%) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) FCF yield (%) Dividend yield (%)
1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E
Asian Paints 0 8 11 25 36.3 28.8 24.3 7.0 5.9 5.0 0.9 2.1 2.5 1.0 1.2
Bajaj Consumer Care (7) (8) (23) (29) 17.7 15.5 13.5 5.4 4.8 4.3 4.1 4.8 5.0 4.0 4.3
Britannia Industries 7 (1) 4 28 41.3 34.4 29.1 6.6 5.7 4.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.9
Coffee day 11 11 (4) 2 12.4 10.8 9.9 2.2 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 — —
Colgate-Palmolive (India) 2 (2) 15 23 26.9 23.3 20.0 7.5 6.6 5.7 2.3 2.4 2.8 1.5 1.8
Dabur India 0 1 (3) 37 41.8 34.9 30.0 8.9 7.7 6.8 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.0 1.2
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer (4) (7) (2) 9 23.6 20.9 18.2 5.5 4.8 4.2 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.4 1.7
Godrej Consumer Products 6 (11) (16) (1) 33.2 28.3 24.1 7.1 6.3 5.5 2.7 2.6 2.9 0.9 1.0
Hindustan Unilever (3) (6) 7 32 42.1 35.3 31.0 9.6 8.4 7.5 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.4 1.5
ITC 7 7 (4) 9 20.1 17.7 15.7 7.6 7.0 6.4 2.7 3.1 3.5 2.3 2.6
Jubilant Foodworks 4 6 (1) 29 28.2 22.5 18.1 4.7 4.0 3.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.2 0.3
Jyothy Laboratories 2 (4) (7) 5 23.6 20.3 17.2 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.4 3.0 3.4 0.8 1.1
Marico (1) (8) (0) 11 33.8 27.5 23.1 5.9 5.2 4.5 2.0 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.8
Nestle India 1 (2) 4 39 37.3 32.3 28.3 8.8 7.8 6.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 1.2 1.4
Page Industries (2) (1) (29) 10 38.6 31.8 26.5 8.8 7.4 6.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.1
Pidilite Industries 4 1 7 31 42.4 33.8 28.1 8.2 7.1 6.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.8
S H Kelkar (4) (16) (31) (43) 16.2 12.3 10.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 0.5 1.6 2.6 1.3 1.8
Tata Global Beverages 10 (4) (9) (27) 16.0 13.7 12.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.2 1.7 2.0
Titan Co. 3 14 30 27 42.3 33.8 27.3 4.7 3.9 3.3 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.6
United Breweries (2) 9 4 35 29.3 24.6 20.7 5.5 4.8 4.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 0.4 0.5
United Spirits 11 (9) 1 (6) 32.7 26.8 22.2 4.9 4.3 3.7 1.3 1.7 2.1 0.3 0.4
Varun Beverages 6 11 (0) 33 17.4 14.7 11.7 3.4 2.6 2.2 0.7 (7.0) 3.5 — —
KIE FMCG universe 2 0 (0) 19 30.7 26.0 22.4 7.0 6.1 5.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.1 1.3
KIE universe (ex-ITC) (1) (2) (0) 20 35.7 29.7 25.3 6.8 5.9 5.1 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.0 1.2
Sensex 5 5 0 12
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 6: P/E multiples are fairly high for the earnings profile Exhibit 7: P/E multiples are fairly high for the earnings profile
One year forward PE (based on consensus estimates) One year forward PE (based on consensus estimates)
Nestle Dabur Asian Paints Marico Titan

ITC HUL GCPL Colgate GSK Consumer
80 70
70 60
60 50
50 40
40 30
30 20
20 10
10 -
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 8: Consumer sector P/E rich at 37X Exhibit 9: Consumer sector (ex-ITC) is trading at 48X
One year forward P/ E based on consensus estimates (X) One year forward P/E based on consensus estimates (X)
45 65
40
55
35
45
30
25 35
20
25
15
15
10
5 5
Feb-07
Feb-99
Feb-01
Feb-03
Feb-05
Feb-09
Feb-11
Feb-13
Feb-15
Feb-17
Feb-19
Feb-99
Feb-01
Feb-03
Feb-05
Feb-07
Feb-09
Feb-11
Feb-13
Feb-15
Feb-17
Feb-19
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 10: Most FMCG stocks are trading at premium to their 5-year historical average
One year forward PE based on consensus estimates (X)
HUL ITC Nestle Colgate GSKCHL APNT GCPL Marico Dabur Titan TGBL Britannia Pidilite Sector
Average P/E (X)
3-Yr 45.8 28.3 52.7 40.8 32.7 50.6 42.2 43.9 39.5 44.6 24.3 46.5 45.2 37.7
5-Yr 44.2 28.6 54.8 41.0 34.1 46.8 38.4 39.3 37.8 44.0 25.3 40.5 40.6 36.8
10-Yr 36.1 26.7 46.3 34.8 30.0 37.1 32.1 32.3 32.1 34.8 23.6 32.4 31.2 31.7
Current P/E 51.7 24.8 54.1 40.7 31.6 49.9 37.2 39.1 43.6 52.2 20.6 52.3 51.5 37.3
Current Prem/Disct to Avg (%)
Prem/Disc to 3-Yr Avg 13 (12) 3 (0) (3) (1) (12) (11) 10 17 (15) 13 14 (1)
Prem/Disc to 5-Yr Avg 17 (13) (1) (1) (7) 7 (3) (0) 15 19 (19) 29 27 2
Prem/Disc to 10-Yr Avg 43 (7) 17 17 5 34 16 21 36 50 (13) 62 65 18
5-year P/E variables (X)
Median 43.6 28.3 54.4 41.3 32.9 47.0 37.3 40.8 37.6 43.7 25.0 41.0 38.6 37.0
Average 44.2 28.6 54.8 41.0 34.1 46.8 38.4 39.3 37.8 44.0 25.3 40.5 40.6 36.8
STD 6.0 2.2 8.2 3.1 3.5 6.0 6.1 6.8 4.1 7.5 4.8 10.9 8.0 2.6
Max 57.3 34.1 75.5 46.3 40.2 58.1 54.9 49.7 49.5 59.5 37.6 61.5 58.5 42.8
+1 STD 50.2 30.8 63.1 44.0 37.6 52.8 44.6 46.1 41.9 51.5 30.2 51.4 48.6 39.4
Min 32.2 24.8 39.4 32.8 26.5 34.4 29.3 23.3 29.4 27.7 17.6 18.2 28.4 30.6
-1 STD 38.2 26.3 46.6 37.9 30.5 40.9 32.3 32.4 33.7 36.4 20.5 29.5 32.7 34.1
Difference versus current P/E (%)
Median 19 (12) (0) (2) (4) 6 (0) (4) 16 19 (18) 28 33 1
Average P/E 17 (13) (1) (1) (7) 7 (3) (0) 15 19 (19) 29 27 2
Max (10) (27) (28) (12) (21) (14) (32) (21) (12) (12) (45) (15) (12) (13)
+1 STD 3 (19) (14) (8) (16) (5) (16) (15) 4 1 (32) 2 6 (5)
Min 60 - 38 24 19 45 27 68 48 89 17 187 81 22
-1 STD 35 (6) 16 7 4 22 15 21 29 43 0 77 58 9
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 11: Relative valuation (to Sensex)

One year forward premium to Sensex based on consensus estimates (X)
HUL ITC Nestle Colgate GSKCHL APNT GCPL Marico Dabur Titan TGBL Britannia Pidilite Sector
Average Relative P/E (X)
3-Yr 2.3 1.4 2.6 2.0 1.6 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.8
5-Yr 2.2 1.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.8
10-Yr 2.0 1.5 2.6 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.8
Current Relative P/E 2.9 1.4 3.1 2.3 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 3.0 1.2 3.0 2.9 2.1
Current Prem/Disct to Avg (%)
Prem/Disc to 3-Yr Avg 30 2 18 15 11 14 2 3 27 36 (1) 30 32 15
5-year relative P/E variable (X)
Median 2.2 1.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 2.4 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8
Average 2.2 1.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.8
STD 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
Max 3.0 1.8 3.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.0 1.6 3.0 2.9 2.1
+1 STD 2.5 1.5 3.1 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.4 1.9
Min 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.6
-1 STD 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.7
Difference versus current relative P/E (%)
Median 36 (2) 12 16 5 20 11 8 35 34 (6) 42 50 18
Average P/E 34 (0) 13 14 6 22 11 14 32 37 (7) 49 45 16
Max (3) (22) (12) (5) (16) (1) (17) (9) - - (29) (2) - (1)
+1 STD 18 (8) (1) 5 (7) 9 (3) (2) 18 19 (20) 17 22 9
Min 68 17 53 31 48 54 48 68 58 98 27 200 101 31
-1 STD 56 9 33 25 23 39 30 36 50 61 12 103 79 24
Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

ATTRACTIVE
Insurance
UPDATE
BSE-30: 37,752
Most players fare well. Individual APE growth for private sector life insurance
companies picked up to 16% from 10% in January 2019 translating into YTD growth
of 11%. HDFC Life was the only large player that reported a decline (individual APE
down 6% yoy) while other large players were up 9-30%. In the meanwhile, net mutual
fund equity inflows continue to weaken. Against this backdrop, improving share of the
protection business augurs well for supporting VNB growth of key players and in that
sense, makes APE growth less relevant.
Individual APE growth picks pace; up 16% yoy in February 2019

QUICK NUMBERS
Private sector players reported 16% yoy growth in individual APE in February 2019, higher than
past few months. Growth rate had moderated in April-July 2018 but picked up in later months  Private sector APE
prior to recording some sluggishness in November 2018 and inching up again. On YTD basis, was up 16% yoy in
individual APE was up 11% yoy. February 2019
 HDFC Life reported 6% yoy decline in individual APE after witnessing marginal growth of 2%  Private players lost
in January 2018. Overall APE was a tad better with 4% yoy decline, as its group protection 80 bps mom market
remained a segment of focus. Its business has been a bit volatile this year with 3-37% share in individual
growth during May-October 2018 followed by decline in November and December 2018. business to 59% in
February 2019
 ICICI Prudential Life saw growth of 8.5% yoy in February 2019 in individual APE, marginally
lower than last month. After a decline in 3QFY19, the management had guided an  MF equity inflows in
improvement in volumes in 4QFY19, which seems to be on track. The company has worked February 2019 was
on monthly paying policies. On considering overall (individual and group) adjusted APE down to Rs44 bn
including accrued but not received premium, its APE, according to a company release, was from Rs198 bn in
up ~15% yoy. With a large base in March 2018 (up 30% mom), we expect growth to February 2018
moderate in March 2019.
 SBI Life’s individual APE growth was strong at 30% yoy in February 2019, especially against
the backdrop of 0.1% decline in January 2019 and 15% YTD. This was its best month YTD.
According to the management, its focus has been on streamlining its processes and
increasing share of the protection business (up 140 bps qoq in 3QFY19 to 7.3%). The
company seems to be getting back on APE growth though we are not sure if 30% growth
rate can be sustained in the current environment.
 Max Life’s growth in individual APE was strong at 27% yoy though lower than 35% growth
in January 2019. The company has increased focus on ULIPs—a likely reason for superior
growth of the company. Its ticket size in individual non-single segment was up 15% yoy, Nischint Chawathe
unlike other large players who were flat. Additional investments in proprietary channels will
fuel growth further.
M B Mahesh CFA
 Birla SL reported 60% growth in individual APE, continuing its high growth momentum (YTD
growth of 66%) as it continued to make inroads in HDFC Bank. Tata AIA was up 52%
translating into YTD growth of 61%. Dipanjan Ghosh
Shrey Singh
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
India Insurance
Net mutual fund equity inflows continue to decline

Mutual fund inflows to equities declined, with inflows at Rs44 bn in February 2019 as
compared to Rs55 bn in January 2019, Rs66 bn in December 2018 and Rs86-107 bn in the
preceding six months. This is the lowest inflow since recent correction in equity markets.
Interestingly, SIPs were stable for the past few months at Rs80-81 bn; this meant that the
non-SIP flows reported large net outflow. Liquid fund reported outflows at Rs245 bn post
recording strong inflows (Rs0.5-1.5 tn) in past four months though the outflow is much
lower than Rs2.1 tn in September 2018.
Exhibit 1: Private sector life insurance APE was up 16% in February 2019
APE in individual and group business, March fiscal year-ends, February 2018- February 2019 (Rs mn)
Feb-19 YTD FY2019
yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy
growth growth growth growth growth growth
Individual (%) Group (%) Total (%) Individual (%) Group (%) Total (%)
Aegon Religare 86 (38) — (22) 86 (38) 832 (20) 3 51 835 (20)
Aviva 207 1 0 (26) 208 0 1,254 (9) 6 (67) 1,260 (10)
Bajaj Allianz 1,513 33 164 (30) 1,677 22 13,559 17 2,133 5 15,692 15
Bharti Axa 505 15 21 (36) 526 11 4,854 41 240 6 5,094 39
Birla Sunlife 1,493 60 60 (22) 1,552 54 13,492 69 1,671 51 15,162 66
Canara HSBC 896 18 57 176 953 22 7,363 8 394 16 7,757 8
DHFL Pramerica 173 (42) 38 (33) 212 (41) 2,721 3 536 (28) 3,257 (4)
Edelweiss 360 5 8 36 369 5 2,702 48 54 9 2,756 47
Future Generali 425 62 6 2 431 61 2,566 28 57 (20) 2,623 27
HDFC Life 4,135 (6) 458 (17) 4,593 (7) 41,754 6 5,678 27 47,432 9
ICICI Prudential 6,884 8 156 574 7,040 10 61,577 (7) 1,073 250 62,649 (6)
IDBI Federal 429 14 13 98 442 16 3,820 4 136 77 3,956 5
India First 778 23 56 (48) 834 13 5,583 13 1,136 99 6,719 22
Exide Life 594 (0) 0 (92) 594 (1) 5,406 8 44 (48) 5,451 8
Kotak 1,741 (1) 88 36 1,829 0 12,329 4 862 18 13,190 5
Max Life 4,114 27 32 11 4,145 27 30,190 22 280 5 30,469 22
Reliance Life 784 18 34 137 818 20 7,611 27 84 (33) 7,695 26
SBI Life 6,491 30 346 116 6,838 32 77,704 13 3,372 106 81,077 15
Shriram Life 341 5 14 (41) 355 2 3,672 5 212 (13) 3,884 4
Star Union Daichi 605 13 5 (2) 610 13 4,523 (6) 46 30 4,569 (6)
Tata AIA 2,058 52 6 42 2,064 52 17,143 62 95 33 17,238 61
Private players 35,817 16 1,582 10 37,399 16 331,725 11 18,261 37 349,986 12
Pvt. Ex-ICICI and SBI 22,443 15 1,079 (14) 23,522 13 192,443 18 13,817 21 206,260 18
LIC 25,071 7 7,625 62 32,697 16 240,177 6 73,727 4 313,904 5
Total Premium 60,889 12 9,207 50 70,096 16 571,902 9 91,989 9 663,890 9
Source: IRDA, Life council
Exhibit 2: Private sector individual APE increased 16% yoy in February 2019
Yoy growth in adjusted individual business premium, March fiscal year-ends, February 2018 - February 2019 (%)
Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18 Feb-18
Bajaj Allianz 27.6 5.0 (20.3) 17.2 18.6 19.6 33.4 18.3 25.9 0.0 23.0 21.0 33.2
Birla Sunlife 13.4 20.2 37.3 40.6 40.6 74.1 86.4 70.1 110.4 55.3 79.3 81.2 60.3
Canara HSBC 7.9 (11.4) 64.9 (16.7) 2.7 0.8 17.7 6.6 19.5 (15.9) (6.3) 26.3 18.3
HDFC Standard Life 22.2 (2.4) 69.6 11.3 3.7 3.1 6.6 20.2 36.5 (19.6) (3.6) 2.0 (6.1)
ICICI Prudential Life (15.6) 16.6 (31.1) (30.0) (5.1) 3.8 6.0 0.1 (17.2) (23.9) (4.7) 8.9 8.4
India First 17.7 (20.1) 1.4 0.9 (1.4) 0.8 18.5 23.4 38.5 0.4 10.6 16.5 23.2
Kotak 47.7 12.9 34.2 5.8 3.6 4.4 (3.2) 1.7 15.6 16.0 1.3 (3.4) (0.8)
Max Life 33.1 16.0 (1.4) 19.7 19.7 41.4 22.2 30.4 27.0 12.8 7.0 35.1 26.7
Reliance Life 8.6 5.8 37.1 18.6 16.3 8.6 54.1 40.9 45.6 34.5 25.0 10.7 17.8
SBI Life 17.9 4.6 (11.0) 27.2 8.1 5.9 10.4 22.7 15.9 10.0 23.9 (0.1) 29.8
Star Union Daichi (34.8) (39.2) 29.8 (9.3) (33.5) 11.4 (3.9) 3.7 (23.6) (21.4) 8.7 (20.5) 13.0
Tata AIA 34.5 21.8 5.2 32.4 55.2 52.1 80.6 60.8 58.8 58.6 130.1 45.6 51.8
Private sector 11.4 7.9 (1.9) 4.2 8.9 13.2 16.7 18.4 16.5 (1.0) 14.3 10.2 16.2
Pvt. ex-ICICI and SBI 22.4 7.1 21.0 16.4 15.0 21.1 24.4 23.3 32.1 4.0 16.0 16.2 15.2
LIC 9.3 5.1 3.3 20.6 (1.3) 1.5 12.4 13.1 (0.5) (12.4) 15.8 8.1 7.0
Total 10.5 6.6 0.4 11.6 4.1 7.8 14.8 16.2 8.4 (6.3) 14.8 9.3 12.2

Insurance India
Exhibit 3: Industry’s APE growth remains broadly stable qoq in 3QFY19

Adjusted premium equivalent of life insurance players, March fiscal year-ends, 2013-2018, 1QFY19-3QFY19
APE (Rs bn) YoY (%) Market share (%)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Bajaj Allianz Life 14 11 9 9 12 17 3 4 5 (17) (18) (2) 34 34 1 15 19 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
Birla Sunlife 11 9 9 8 11 12 3 4 5 (17) (7) (3) 30 11 41 69 80 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
DHFL Pramerica 1 1 2 2 2 4 1 1 1 (17) 63 11 21 62 27 22 (29) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Exide 5 5 4 5 6 6 1 1 1 (3) (12) 10 27 2 21 6 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HDFC Life 32 25 32 36 41 53 10 14 14 (22) 26 14 13 29 23 12 5 5 7 7 6 7 7 7 7
ICICI Prudential Life 34 33 46 51 65 75 13 19 17 (5) 41 10 27 15 (22) 5 (13) 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 9
Max Life 15 18 20 21 27 32 5 9 9 17 10 8 26 21 14 30 13 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
Reliance Life 10 12 13 10 7 7 2 2 2 19 8 (26) (24) 2 22 33 31 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
SBI Life 26 30 33 45 63 80 13 23 28 14 10 36 40 27 10 17 20 6 7 9 10 11 10 12 14
Private players 189 182 211 242 306 373 65 101 107 (3) 16 15 26 22 6 18 11 36 45 47 49 51 49 52 55
Private (ex. SBI, ICICI) 128 119 132 146 178 218 39 59 62 (7) 10 11 21 23 18 23 17 23 28 28 28 30 30 30 32
LIC 326 331 253 279 324 360 68 94 86 1 (23) 10 16 11 7 (0) 3 64 55 53 51 49 51 48 45
Total industry 515 513 464 521 630 733 133 195 193 (0) (9) 12 21 16 6 8 7
Exhibit 4: Private sector APE has been robust over the past few months
Yoy growth in individual APE, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-2018, April 2018 - February 2019 (%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
Bajaj Allianz (18.5) (22.6) (7.5) 40.9 38.3 (20.3) 17.2 18.6 19.6 33.4 18.3 25.9 0.0 23.0 21.0 33.2
Birla Sunlife (18.9) (11.8) (7.7) 35.3 14.9 37.3 40.6 40.6 74.1 86.4 70.1 110.4 55.3 79.3 81.2 60.3
Canara HSBC (22.8) 17.9 35.2 38.5 33.5 64.9 (16.7) 2.7 0.8 17.7 6.6 19.5 (15.9) (6.3) 26.3 18.3
HDFC Life (24.2) 25.0 12.3 9.1 30.8 69.6 11.3 3.7 3.1 6.6 20.2 36.5 (19.6) (3.6) 2.0 (6.1)
ICICI Prudential Life (1.7) 41.3 8.1 29.0 16.4 (31.1) (30.0) (5.1) 3.8 6.0 0.1 (17.2) (23.9) (4.7) 8.9 8.4
India First (37.2) 5.5 38.1 82.3 42.9 1.4 0.9 (1.4) 0.8 18.5 23.4 38.5 0.4 10.6 16.5 23.2
Kotak 1.2 32.8 52.2 28.1 31.0 34.2 5.8 3.6 4.4 (3.2) 1.7 15.6 16.0 1.3 (3.4) (0.8)
Max Life 16.9 10.2 8.0 25.5 21.8 (1.4) 19.7 19.7 41.4 22.2 30.4 27.0 12.8 7.0 35.1 26.7
Reliance Life 14.6 7.3 (25.6) (22.8) 5.4 37.1 18.6 16.3 8.6 54.1 40.9 45.6 34.5 25.0 10.7 17.8
SBI Life 17.7 11.0 37.0 38.9 31.1 (11.0) 27.2 8.1 5.9 10.4 22.7 15.9 10.0 23.9 (0.1) 29.8
Star Union Daichi 23.3 18.6 (9.0) 64.4 (4.5) 29.8 (9.3) (33.5) 11.4 (3.9) 3.7 (23.6) (21.4) 8.7 (20.5) 13.0
Private sector (3.6) 15.8 14.0 26.6 24.3 (1.9) 4.2 8.9 13.2 16.7 18.4 16.5 (1.0) 14.3 10.2 16.2
Pvt. ex-ICICI and SBI (7.8) 9.8 9.5 21.8 24.9 21.0 16.4 15.0 21.1 24.4 23.3 32.1 4.0 16.0 16.2 15.2
LIC (3.4) (26.3) 2.9 14.7 13.4 3.3 20.6 (1.3) 1.5 12.4 13.1 (0.5) (12.4) 15.8 8.1 7.0
Total (3.4) (10.4) 8.3 20.7 19.3 0.4 11.6 4.1 7.8 14.8 16.2 8.4 (6.3) 14.8 9.3 12.2
Exhibit 5: Private players lost market share mom in February 2019

Trend in adjusted individual business market share, March fiscal year-ends, February 2018 – February 2019 (%)
Bajaj Allianz 2.1 2.2 3.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5
Birla Sunlife 1.7 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 3.4 2.5 2.5
Canara HSBC 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5
HDFC Standard Life 8.1 7.6 7.5 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 8.9 8.9 6.3 6.7 7.9 6.8
ICICI Prudential 11.7 7.5 12.4 10.4 11.5 12.2 11.9 10.4 9.4 10.1 9.8 10.1 11.3
Max Life 6.0 6.8 3.8 4.2 5.5 4.7 4.9 6.0 4.5 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.8
Reliance Life 1.2 1.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3
SBI Life 9.2 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.3 13.6 13.7 13.2 13.5 14.7 18.4 15.7 10.7
Tata AIA 2.5 3.1 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.9 3.2 3.4
Private sector 56.8 53.7 54.6 51.1 55.9 56.9 57.7 59.7 56.1 57.0 63.9 59.6 58.8
LIC 43.2 46.3 45.4 48.9 44.1 43.1 42.3 40.3 43.9 43.0 36.1 40.4 41.2

India Insurance
Exhibit 6: Ticket size increased for most companies yoy

Average policy size in individual non-single segment, February 2018 –February 2019 (Rs)
Feb-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 YoY (%) MoM (%)

Aegon Religare 32,593 26,153 32,849 1 26
Aviva 84,714 69,100 82,534 (3) 19
Bajaj Allianz 42,201 51,450 50,231 19 (2)
Bharti Axa 48,322 39,130 40,290 (17) 3
Birla Sun Life 51,149 68,576 61,216 20 (11)
Canara HSBC Oriental 83,878 79,757 66,240 (21) (17)
DHFL Pramerica 41,608 43,985 42,215 1 (4)
HDFC Life 45,040 53,446 46,536 3 (13)
ICICI Prudential 85,637 72,864 85,729 0 18
IDBI Federal 41,261 45,327 47,302 15 4
IndiaFirst 39,193 51,973 49,868 27 (4)
Exide Life 36,235 31,927 32,506 (10) 2
Kotak 60,757 61,091 56,922 (6) (7)
Edelweiss Tokio 42,529 45,089 43,045 1 (5)
Max Life 57,734 62,695 66,391 15 6
Reliance 38,330 37,016 39,309 3 6
SBI 52,929 68,134 54,055 2 (21)
Shriram 15,274 19,969 15,995 5 (20)
Star Union 53,584 60,803 65,413 22 8
Tata AIA 61,286 66,333 53,289 (13) (20)
LIC 12,420 15,604 12,864 4 (18)
Exhibit 7: Ticket size has decreased marginally in 11MFY19 for private players
Average policy-size in individual non-single segment, 2009-18, 11MFY19 (Rs)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11MFY19
Bajaj Allianz 15,024 14,598 12,566 13,428 17,151 22,216 26,857 28,170 37,066 45,448 51,190
Exide 17,861 21,622 23,311 26,221 24,704 25,014 26,214 24,594 31,413 31,855 30,948
Reliance Life 13,796 13,713 10,704 10,330 12,951 19,145 25,145 24,544 25,380 33,636 37,913
SBI Life 33,625 30,880 37,099 25,266 27,315 27,499 28,103 34,098 47,109 54,929 55,395
Tata AIA 13,839 16,255 17,537 22,368 20,144 20,810 32,577 44,411 57,204 62,780 57,502
HDFC Standard 24,941 37,201 46,297 43,584 39,559 34,811 43,839 38,211 42,345 45,244 46,400
ICICI Prudential 19,686 29,081 28,462 27,533 34,570 41,948 72,582 88,373 94,759 93,116 75,687
Birla Sunlife 19,941 13,722 16,348 13,849 18,468 20,062 25,480 23,700 30,445 42,518 58,094
Aviva 18,057 29,427 30,961 28,200 30,032 29,012 39,995 42,580 57,923 70,440 55,352
Kotak 23,878 29,827 29,069 24,762 29,832 32,753 38,221 42,657 47,157 55,909 50,570
Max Life 13,198 16,546 20,869 25,973 29,564 32,999 38,909 44,569 51,057 55,836 52,637
Sahara Life 8,230 9,008 7,952 6,540 5,969 7,397 6,534 8,780 11,782 14,072 NA
Shriram Life 16,928 21,982 18,767 12,897 12,700 13,627 13,727 13,815 18,820 17,382 16,064
Bharti Axa Life 14,229 24,840 20,868 19,952 22,030 29,960 40,491 40,464 39,017 40,695 34,484
Future Generali Life 12,903 13,308 10,859 15,566 13,673 16,842 34,786 42,945 44,659 19,704 44,735
IDBI Federal 29,239 35,271 28,082 25,994 21,763 24,845 29,066 30,856 36,158 40,836 41,142
Canara HSBC 82,635 62,624 62,372 66,162 49,016 54,072 53,981 57,487 67,193 78,115 66,104
Aegon Religare 12,910 32,576 28,402 25,374 22,015 26,883 36,630 28,475 22,807 24,278 22,631
DHFL Pramerica 12,102 18,645 19,021 13,525 13,134 16,897 25,838 27,324 28,332 37,979 41,842
Star Union Dai-ichi 29,220 29,529 30,483 19,333 18,608 27,033 39,855 41,301 50,424 50,941 52,912
Private Total 18,686 21,005 21,851 21,956 25,296 28,345 36,669 39,193 48,008 52,943 52,309
LIC 5,885 7,169 7,595 8,649 7,983 8,180 10,516 10,399 11,718 12,510 12,807
Grand Total 9,942 11,208 11,000 11,142 10,865 11,312 16,403 16,969 20,341 22,549 23,337

Insurance India
Exhibit 8: Net inflows in equity funds decreased in February 2019

Mutual fund inflows, monthly data, February 2018 – February 2019 (Rs bn)
Equity (Equity oriented+ELSS+70% of balanced) 198 114 136 132 107 97 102 117 130 86 66 55 44
Liquid/ Money Market 12 (550) 1,165 (467) 521 (311) 1,711 (2,111) 553 1,361 1,489 586 (245)
ETFs 9 50 3 27 83 (40) 17 24 28 16 109 7 52
Others (bal. fig; most debt) (98) (122) 71 (191) (246) (71) (84) (332) (356) (40) (55) 6 (52)
Total 121 (508) 1,374 (500) 465 (326) 1,746 (2,302) 355 1,424 1,609 654 (201)
Note:
(1) Equity included arbitrage funds from Sept 2017-March 2018.
Source: AMFI, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 9: MF inflows to equity funds continue to decline

Net MF flows (Equity + ELSS+70%balanced), March fiscal year-ends, February 2017 – February 2019 (Rs bn)
275 265 256

246
229
220 201 208
198
182
161
165
134 136 130
132
124 118
114 117
107
110 97 97 102
86
66
55
55 44
0
Dec-17
Dec-18
Mar-18
Mar-17
Jun-17
Jun-18
May-17
May-18
Apr-18
Sep-18
Apr-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jul-17
Nov-18
Jan-19
Jan-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Aug-17
Oct-17
Oct-18
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Exhibit 10: SIP inflows have stabilized

SIP inflows (monthly data), March fiscal year-ends, February 2017 – February 2019 (Rs bn)
90
80 80 80 81 81
77
76 76 77
78 73
71
66 67
64
66 62
59
55 56
52
54 49
46 47
43 43
41
42
30
May-17
May-18
Aug-17
Aug-18
Nov-17
Nov-18
Mar-17
Dec-17
Dec-18
Mar-18
Oct-17
Oct-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-17
Sep-18
Jun-17
Sep-17
Jun-18
Apr-18
Feb-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Jan-19
Feb-19

India Insurance
Exhibit 11: MF inflows peaked in FY2018

Net MF flows (Equity + ELSS+70%balanced), March fiscal year-ends, 2006 – YTD FY2019 (Rs bn)
3,000
2,313
2,250
1,500
1,071
878 956
790
750 510
375 282
41 17 4
-
(122) (144) (107)
(750)
YTD 2019
2009
2010
2014
2015
2006
2007
2008
2011
2012
2013
2016
2017
2018
Exhibit 12: Share of ULIPs dropped for most players in 3QFY19

Contribution of various products to APE, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-2018, 1QFY19-3QFY19 (% of total)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Bajaj Life
Unit linked policies 12 12 10 24 29 62 64 54 50 53
Participating policies 60 49 51 21 19 20 20 30 28 27
Non participating policies 28 39 38 54 52 18 17 16 23 20
Birla SL
Unit linked policies 59 43 45 35 48 33 36 NA NA NA
Participating policies 0 2 14 16 13 22 18 NA NA NA
Non participating policies 41 55 41 49 38 45 46 NA NA NA
ICICI Prudential Life

HDFC Life
Max Life
SBI Life

Insurance India
Exhibit 13: Share of bancassurance increased in 3QFY19 for most major players
Channel-wise contribution to individual new business premium, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-2018, 1QFY19-3QFY19 (% of total)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Bajaj Life
Agency 66 76 84 92 90 90 79 75 71 70
Bancassurance 10 7 8 1 2 2 5 3 3 4
Corporate agents 19 13 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
O thers 5 4 3 7 7 7 14 20 24 23
Birla SL
Agency 70 66 65 67 81 75 69 60 44 40
Bancassurance 14 17 20 19 9 9 19 31 48 53
O thers — — 12 12 5 10 11 9 8 7
HDFC Life
Agency 20 16 16 16 13 15 13 15 12 12
Bancassurance 64 72 70 67 68 61 59 46 52 49
O thers 4 5 7 14 16 19 23 34 32 35
ICICI Prudential Life
Agency 44 34 28 25 23 23 26 22 22 22
Bancassurance 38 45 54 58 57 57 53 55 57 56
O thers 7.5 7 8 13 16 16 19 20 19 20
Max Life
Agency 37 35 31 29 28 25 24 31 27 23
Bancassurance 40 48 51 57 59 62 64 54 59 61
O thers 9 7 8 8 9 10 10 13 11 14
SBI Life
Agency 52 53 50 46 38 34 31 33 28 27
Bancassurance 44 44 47 52 61 65 67 65 71 72
O thers 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

India Insurance
Exhibit 14: Agent productivity improves for most companies

Agency data, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-2018, 1QFY19-9MFY19
CAGR (%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1QFY19 1HFY19 9MFY19 (2014-9MFY19)
Policies per agent (#)
Bajaj Life 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 (1)
Birla Sunlife 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 (8)
Exide Life 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 (16)
HDFC Standard Life 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.2 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 (24)
ICICI Prudential Life 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 (4)
Kotak Life 7.1 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 (30)
Max Life 5.0 3.8 3.6 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.8 (11)
Reliance Nippon Life 3.4 2.9 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.8 2.0 (10)
SBI Life 5.5 4.8 5.2 4.7 5.2 3.0 4.1 4.3 (5)
TATA AIA 2.1 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.8 2.1 3.6 3.3 10
Total of the above 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 (9)
LIC 26.7 16.3 17.7 17.7 18.0 12.0 14.4 14.6 (12)
Average size of policy (Rs)
Bajaj Life 26,904 35,054 34,525 50,760 63,830 63,185 68,003 72,802 23
Birla Sunlife 22,434 28,402 31,066 38,536 45,823 43,279 43,425 45,656 16
Exide Life 29,008 41,668 29,409 54,928 39,841 45,924 42,588 42,066 8
HDFC Standard Life 12,106 17,368 11,954 18,320 56,394 70,570 66,315 67,327 44
ICICI Prudential Life 52,947 81,958 88,554 101,274 106,448 93,990 96,963 94,471 13
Kotak Life 30,089 33,420 34,577 38,354 43,373 44,878 41,852 43,117 8
Max Life 33,567 40,716 45,274 60,950 72,316 75,556 69,174 70,277 17
Reliance Nippon Life 20,102 24,672 23,619 24,679 34,919 38,104 41,671 42,334 17
SBI Life 28,366 36,987 40,690 49,492 49,919 53,071 49,029 51,294 13
TATA AIA 29,120 29,838 34,667 47,441 45,702 42,150 44,713 46,286 10
Total of the above 26,677 34,618 34,224 45,093 56,914 58,127 56,620 58,010 18
LIC 12,636 16,318 16,075 22,622 24,181 24,196 23,774 25,430 16
Premium per agent (Rs)
Bajaj Life 62,336 66,686 76,129 108,097 155,958 132,734 140,100 159,750 22
Birla Sunlife 60,345 59,637 56,452 73,546 91,097 66,162 74,891 80,828 6
Exide Life 113,294 140,918 90,267 112,422 75,856 70,908 70,248 71,741 (9)
HDFC Standard Life 62,969 91,110 66,701 95,073 119,221 91,010 98,462 95,361 9
ICICI Prudential Life 67,095 80,494 104,411 127,531 149,334 83,542 98,998 98,220 8
Kotak Life 213,797 84,549 54,367 57,169 66,481 45,650 52,942 57,343 (24)
Max Life 166,402 155,588 163,550 165,933 168,807 146,943 161,097 199,184 4
Reliance Nippon Life 68,342 71,279 49,900 32,686 43,452 71,245 75,628 85,723 5
SBI Life 156,478 177,082 213,417 234,501 257,937 160,087 200,446 221,252 8
TATA AIA 60,341 45,645 78,330 132,211 175,066 87,285 159,421 152,334 22
Total of the above 84,167 91,438 91,953 105,868 127,749 95,609 111,166 118,744 8
LIC 337,096 266,440 284,819 399,628 434,128 290,043 341,870 372,236 2
Notes:
(a) We have considered individual premium for the above calculation.
Source: Company, IRDAI, Life Insurance Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance India
Exhibit 15: Individual agent addition has been strong

Gross individual agent addition, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-2018, 11MFY19
Gross individual agents added (#) YoY (%)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11MFY19 2015 2016 2017 2018 11MFY19
Aegon 3,631 3,106 3,518 726 — — (14) 13 (79) (100) NA
Aviva 6,851 5,465 6,881 5,300 5,490 3,044 (20) 26 (23) 4 (40)
Bajaj 22,356 20,552 30,075 20,752 22,277 20,013 (8) 46 (31) 7 3
Bharti Axa 10,704 10,564 11,791 11,583 16,586 20,924 (1) 12 (2) 43 48
Birla Sunlife 31,918 22,911 20,992 22,735 24,999 23,463 (28) (8) 8 10 3
Canara HSBC NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
DHFL 2,328 1,255 2,467 3,607 5,052 2,872 (46) 97 46 40 (37)
Edelweiss Tokio 3,930 3,939 5,102 6,137 10,498 11,938 0 30 20 71 28
Exide 24,642 20,698 32,278 27,736 28,478 24,582 (16) 56 (14) 3 (1)
Future Generali 8,316 3,930 4,852 4,100 3,421 2,225 (53) 23 (15) (17) (28)
HDFC Life 22,469 21,476 17,911 17,289 24,037 25,395 (4) (17) (3) 39 17
ICICI Pru 35,799 11,910 18,286 15,996 18,057 20,103 (67) 54 (13) 13 19
IDBI Federal 4,432 4,945 4,477 4,243 4,439 4,523 12 (9) (5) 5 19
IndiaFirst 862 566 449 489 362 383 (34) (21) 9 (26) 13
Kotak 24,184 29,903 43,494 48,214 53,151 52,025 24 45 11 10 11
Max 22,826 21,524 26,171 26,096 25,497 26,569 (6) 22 (0) (2) 19
Reliance Nippon 76,578 63,252 47,692 33,137 25,153 28,004 (17) (25) (31) (24) 25
SBI Life 40,639 35,571 43,498 44,637 52,258 54,990 (12) 22 3 17 27
Tata AIA 18,507 14,622 15,615 15,513 17,598 18,826 (21) 7 (1) 13 21
Private 374,152 305,205 345,715 311,420 338,682 340,776 (18) 13 (10) 9 15
LIC 253,416 342,048 319,428 339,964 265,806 224,686 35 (7) 6 (22) (1)
Total 626,802 647,253 665,143 651,384 604,488 565,462 3 3 (2) (7) 8
Source: Company, IRDAI, Life Insurance Council, Kotak Institutional Equities
~40% share of single premium for private players in February 2019

LIC remained focused on single premium with 77% share in total premium (for LIC) in
February 2019. The share of single premium for private players increased to 39% as
compared to 38% in February 2018 (up 300 bps mom). Among major private players, Bajaj
Allianz Life, SBI Life and HDFC Life maintain high share of single premium at 53%, 37% and
66% respectively with the mix of single premium inching up for these players in February
2019.
Exhibit 16: Share of single premium in overall business increased mom for private players in February 2019
Share of single premium to total premium, March fiscal year-ends, February 2018 –February 2019 (%)
Bajaj Allianz 68 70 46 54 65 64 70 74 75 56 50 48 53
Birla Sunlife 24 58 34 64 67 50 57 74 64 57 43 42 30
HDFC Life 64 61 74 65 73 72 67 65 63 71 69 62 66
ICICI Prudential 19 21 25 24 20 21 24 23 29 26 25 28 32
Max Life 25 20 36 31 29 28 27 24 28 28 29 22 23
Reliance Life 4 3 6 6 5 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
SBI Life 26 46 37 36 48 45 35 29 35 33 26 24 37
Private sector 38 42 46 43 49 45 42 45 46 42 37 36 39
LIC 73 73 71 81 82 86 83 79 80 79 79 78 77
Total 60 62 62 70 72 75 71 66 68 66 63 64 64
Source: IRDA, Life council, Kotak Institutional Equities

India Insurance
LIC gains market share in group business

The market share of private players in the group business decreased to 17% from 19% in
January 2019 (23% in February 2018). There was a drop in market share for most private
players though the impact was steep for Birla SL and HDFC Life (market share down 80 bps,
and 100 bps mom respectively).
Exhibit 17: Share of LIC at 83%; up ~200 bps mom

Market share in group business, March fiscal year-ends, February 2018 – February 2019 (%)
Bajaj Allianz 3.8 3.7 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.6 4.1 4.5 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.8
Birla Sunlife 1.2 2.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 0.7 1.4 4.5 2.6 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.6
HDFC Life 9.0 5.8 13.4 4.7 6.4 4.4 4.3 7.9 6.3 7.7 8.0 6.0 5.0
ICICI Prudential 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7
Max Life 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Reliance Life 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
SBI Life 2.6 5.2 3.8 2.6 4.3 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.6 3.3 3.8
Private sector 23 22 29 15 21 14 16 27 24 23 24 19 17
LIC 77 78 71 85 79 86 84 73 76 77 76 81 83
Source: IRDA, Life council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks
51
Fair O/S ADVT

Price (Rs) Value Upside Mkt cap. shares EPS (Rs) EPS growth (%) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) 3mo
Company Rating 13-Mar-19 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E (US$ mn)
Automobiles & Components
Amara Raja Batteries REDUCE 751 700 (7) 128 1.8 171 29 35 40 4.9 21 14.7 26 21 18.7 13 11.1 9.5 3.8 3.3 2.9 15.7 16.6 16.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 4.8
Apollo Tyres BUY 225 310 38 129 1.9 541 16 21 25 20 33 17 14.0 10.6 9.0 7.9 6.8 5.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 9.1 11.2 11.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 7.7
Ashok Leyland BUY 94 140 49 275 4.0 2,926 6.7 8.0 8.0 12.7 18 -0.2 14.0 11.8 11.8 8.9 7.3 7.6 3.3 2.8 2.4 25 26 22 2.2 2.5 2.5 32
Bajaj Auto REDUCE 3,008 2,400 (20) 871 12.5 289 147 162 171 5.0 10.3 5.2 20 18.5 17.6 15 13 12.0 4.1 3.7 3.3 21 21 19.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 22
Balkrishna Industries BUY 929 950 2 180 2.6 193 42 49 53 11.1 17 9.6 22 19.1 17.4 11.8 10.4 9.3 3.8 3.2 2.8 18.1 18.2 17.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 9.3
Bharat Forge SELL 538 445 (17) 250 3.6 466 23 25 25 43 6.9 2.0 23 22 21 13 12 11.6 4.6 4.0 3.5 21 19.6 17.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 11.8
CEAT ADD 1,157 1,150 (1) 47 0.7 40 67 80 91 3.2 19 13.9 17.3 14.5 12.8 9.8 8.7 7.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 9.9 10.8 11.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 9.6
Eicher Motors SELL 22,777 18,400 (19) 621 8.9 27 855 963 1,039 7.8 12.7 8.0 27 24 22 19 17 15 8.7 6.8 5.5 37 32 28 0.1 0.1 0.0 41
Endurance Technologies SELL 1,159 925 (20) 163 2.3 141 36 42 50 25 16 19 32 27 23 15 13 10.7 6.2 5.2 4.4 19.6 19.1 19.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.8
Escorts BUY 788 1,050 33 67 1.4 89 57 66 72 47 15 8.9 13.8 11.9 11.0 8.3 7.0 6.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 17.1 17.0 16.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 21
Exide Industries SELL 231 220 (5) 196 2.8 850 9.1 10.2 11.5 10.9 12.2 12.7 25 23 20 14 12 10.9 3.3 3.0 2.8 13.7 14.0 14.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 6.9
Hero Motocorp SELL 2,804 2,400 (14) 560 8.1 200 168 173 181 (9.1) 2.9 4.5 16.7 16.2 15.5 9.9 9.4 8.8 4.3 3.9 3.5 27 25 24 3.0 3.1 3.2 30
Mahindra CIE Automotive ADD 241 265 10 91 1.3 378 14.5 16 18 48 7.7 12.2 16.7 15.5 13.8 9.5 8.2 7.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 13.7 12.9 12.7 — — — 0.5
Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 684 1,000 46 851 12.2 1,138 46 50 54 22 8.3 8.7 14.8 13.6 12.6 11.0 9.1 8.1 2.3 2.0 1.8 16.2 15.5 15.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 43
Maruti Suzuki ADD 7,091 7,500 6 2,142 30.8 302 254 297 347 -0.8 17 17 28 24 20 15 12 10.1 4.5 4.0 3.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 84
Motherson Sumi Systems SELL 166 125 (24) 523 7.5 3,158 5.5 6.7 7.6 0.1 22 13.8 30 25 22 10.9 9.2 8.0 4.7 4.2 3.7 16.5 17.9 17.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 17.7
MRF REDUCE 57,403 56,000 (2) 243 3.5 4 2,672 3,214 3,590 0.1 20 11.7 21 17.9 16.0 9.0 7.7 6.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 11.0 11.8 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.8
Schaeffler India REDUCE 5,597 5,300 (5) 93 1.3 31 144 179 211 14.9 24 18 39 31 26 11.5 8.8 7.2 6.5 5.4 4.5 17.9 18.8 18.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5
SKF ADD 1,967 2,050 4 101 1.5 51 67 82 97 17 22 17 29 24 20 19 15 13 4.8 4.1 3.6 16.4 17.3 17.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2
Tata Motors BUY 182 280 54 617 8.2 3,396 (9.4) 19 30 (147) 301 57 NM 9.6 6.1 5.5 4.2 3.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 NM 9.4 13.1 — — — 48
Timken SELL 579 550 (5) 44 0.6 68 19 22 25 39 16 15.0 31 26 23 18 16 13 4.7 4.0 3.3 16.6 16.2 15.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TVS Motor SELL 498 350 (30) 237 3.4 475 14.6 18 19 4.7 22 7.7 34 28 26 17 14 13 7.1 6.1 5.3 22 23 22 0.9 1.1 1.1 13.4
Varroc Engineering BUY 638 950 49 86 1.2 135 32 42 61 (4.1) 32 43 19.9 15.1 10.5 9.4 7.5 5.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 13.2 14.8 17.5 — — — 0.3
WABCO India SELL 6,501 6,100 (6) 123 1.8 19 183 222 230 27 22 3.6 36 29 28 25 20 18 6.7 5.5 4.7 21 21 17.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6
Automobiles & Components Neutral 8,638 124.1 (18.5) 45 17 26 18.2 15.5 10.3 8.4 7.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 11.9 15.3 15.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 415
Banks
Axis Bank REDUCE 738 670 (9) 1,897 27.3 2,567 18 46 53 1,555 161 14.4 42 15.9 13.9 — — — 3.1 2.6 2.2 7.0 16.2 16.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 108
Bank of Baroda ADD 116 140 21 306 4.4 2,652 10.4 25 29 214 143 16 11.1 4.6 3.9 — — — 1.0 0.7 0.6 6.6 15.7 13.8 — — — 24
Canara Bank ADD 263 280 6 198 2.9 733 9.4 53 68 116 458 30 28 5.0 3.9 — — — 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.9 10.1 11.8 — — — 19.0
City Union Bank ADD 188 200 6 138 2.0 732 9.5 10.6 12.3 7.1 11.0 16 19.7 17.8 15.3 — — — 3.1 2.8 2.4 15.7 15.4 15.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.4
DCB Bank BUY 201 210 5 62 0.9 308 10.3 12.7 17 29 24 33 19.6 15.8 11.8 — — — 2.3 2.1 1.8 11.7 13.0 15.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 5.0
India Daily Summary - March 14, 2019

Equitas Holdings BUY 136 180 33 46 0.7 340 6.1 9.7 13.4 558 60 39 22 14.0 10.1 — — — 1.9 1.7 1.5 8.7 12.5 15.0 — — — 4.4
Federal Bank BUY 91 110 21 181 2.6 1,972 6.1 8.3 10.1 36 37 22 15.0 11.0 9.0 — — — 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.4 11.9 13.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 16.1
HDFC Bank ADD 2,227 2,200 (1) 6,061 87.2 2,595 78 93 110 15 20 18 29 24 20 — — — 4.2 3.7 3.2 16.6 16.2 16.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 73
ICICI Bank BUY 392 430 10 2,525 36.3 7,072 8.3 27 32 (12.9) 223 19 47 14.5 12.2 — — — 2.6 2.2 1.9 5.0 15.0 15.8 0.4 1.4 1.6 97
IDFC First Bank NR 50 — — 239 3 3,404 (3.3) 1.6 2.6 (229) 149 66 NM 32 19.0 — — — 1.3 1.2 1.2 NM 4.0 6.4 — 0.5 0.8 11.7
IndusInd Bank BUY 1,636 1,700 4 986 14.2 600 56 75 94 (7) 35 25 29 22 17.4 — — — 3.6 3.2 2.8 14.2 15.0 16.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 44
J&K Bank BUY 48 90 89 26 0.4 557 7.1 9.6 18 95 35 84 6.7 5.0 2.7 — — — 0.6 0.5 0.4 6.2 8.0 13.5 3.0 4.0 7.4 0.8
Karur Vysya Bank ADD 71 85 19 57 0.8 799 2.3 4.4 8.6 (51) 89 96 31 16.3 8.3 — — — 1.1 1.0 0.8 2.7 4.9 9.1 0.8 1.5 3.1 1.6
Punjab National Bank ADD 85 95 12 323 4.6 2,761 (15) 13.0 15 67 188 18 NM 6.5 5.5 — — — 1.7 1.0 0.8 NM 11.2 11.6 — — — 28
RBL Bank SELL 627 515 (18) 267 3.8 420 20 28 34 35 35 22 31 23 18.7 — — — 3.7 3.3 2.9 12.2 14.7 15.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 12.5
KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH
State Bank of India BUY 293 370 26 2,616 37.7 8,925 7.4 38 51 201 412 35 40 7.8 5.8 — — — 1.8 1.3 1.0 3.0 13.9 16.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 78
Ujjivan Financial Services BUY 344 350 2 42 0.6 121 15 25 31 2,480 62 23 22 13.9 11.3 — — — 2.2 1.9 1.7 10.1 14.6 15.7 0.4 0.7 1.0 10.7
Union Bank ADD 83 90 9 97 1.4 1,169 0.3 11.2 29 101 3,653 160 276 7.4 2.8 — — — 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 5.6 13.3 0.1 2.0 5.3 12.2
YES Bank SELL 244 200 (18) 565 8.1 2,303 18 18 23 (1.5) 0.1 30 13.5 13.5 10.4 — — — 2.1 1.8 1.6 15.2 13.5 15.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 175
Banks Attractive 16,633 239.4 750 166 26 36 13.5 10.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 5.6 12.9 14.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 725
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates


Fair O/S ADVT
Building Products
Astral Poly Technik SELL 1,210 720 (40) 145 2.1 120 18 22 26 20 25 17 69 55 47 36 30 25 11 9.5 8.0 18.3 18.7 18.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
Building Products Cautious 145 2.1 20 25 17 69 55 47 36 30 25 11 9.4 7.9 16.4 17.2 16.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
Capital goods
ABB SELL 1,297 1,005 (23) 275 4.0 212 12.0 17 25 12.7 44 44 108 75 52 57 46 33 6.9 6.1 5.5 6.7 8.6 11.1 0.4 0.4 15.4 2.7
Ashoka Buildcon BUY 140 205 46 39 0.6 282 10.2 11.0 11.2 21 7.3 1.8 13.7 12.8 12.6 9.1 8.5 7.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 14.0 13.4 12.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5
Bharat Electronics BUY 93 100 7 228 3.3 2,437 5.7 5.8 5.2 (2.9) 2.5 (11.6) 16.4 16.0 18.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 16.5 15.4 12.6 2.1 2.2 1.9 13.7
BHEL REDUCE 68 65 (5) 237 3.4 3,482 3.0 2.7 4.2 29 (9.4) 53 23 25 16.4 12 10.4 7.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 3.3 3.0 4.5 2.3 1.8 2.5 10.1
Carborundum Universal SELL 382 315 (18) 72 1.0 189 13.7 17 19 20 22 14.3 28 23 19.9 16 13 10.8 4.2 3.7 3.4 15.7 17.3 17.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.5
Cochin Shipyard BUY 384 555 44 51 0.7 132 35 37 39 16 6.4 6.9 11.1 10.4 9.7 4.7 4.6 5.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 13.8 13.8 13.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 0.4
Cummins India REDUCE 735 720 (2) 204 2.9 277 28 32 37 16 15 15 26 23 19.8 21 18 16 4.8 4.5 4.2 18.8 20 22 2.1 2.4 2.7 8.1
Dilip Buildcon BUY 614 775 26 84 1.2 137 59 54 63 26 (8.0) 16 10.5 11.4 9.8 6.9 5.9 5.3 2.6 2.1 1.7 28 20 19.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.8
IRB Infrastructure BUY 152 250 64 53 0.8 351 27 30 16 21 8.6 (45) 5.6 5.1 9.3 6.5 7.0 8.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 15.7 14.9 7.6 2.0 2.4 2.5 4.8
Kalpataru Power Transmission BUY 440 530 20 68 1.0 153 31 35 43 58 14.6 22 14.4 12.5 10.2 8.4 6.8 5.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 16.3 16.1 16.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
KEC International BUY 295 360 22 76 1.1 257 20 25 31 11.8 24 23 14.7 11.8 9.6 8.5 7.1 5.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 23 23 23 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6
L&T BUY 1,379 1,530 11 1,933 27.8 1,401 63 67 77 22 6.3 14.8 22 21 17.9 18 17 15 3.3 3.0 2.7 16.4 15.5 16.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 59
Sadbhav Engineering BUY 251 280 12 43 0.6 172 13.8 17 17 7.3 26 -0.6 18.2 14.4 14.5 13 10.1 8.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 12.0 13.4 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
Siemens SELL 1,054 995 (6) 375 5.4 356 29 34 40 14.1 20 17 37 31 26 22 18 15 4.2 3.8 3.5 11.8 13.1 14.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 8.9
Thermax REDUCE 1,048 990 (6) 125 1.8 113 27 38 43 29 42 12.4 39 28 25 28 20 17 28 20 17 10.7 13.9 14.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2
Capital goods Neutral 3,889 56.0 20 8.7 12.6 22 20 17.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 12.2 12.2 12.6 1.4 1.5 2.7 725
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS REDUCE 876 800 (9) 64 0.9 73 27 36 43 19 36 19 33 24 20 19 14 11.9 5.4 4.5 3.8 17.7 20 20 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
TeamLease Services SELL 2,971 2,000 (33) 51 0.7 17 59 76 99 37 29 30 50 39 30 51 39 30 9.4 7.6 6.0 20 21 22 — — — 0.8
Commercial & Professional Services Cautious 115 1.7 26 33 23 38 29 23 26 19 16 6.6 5.4 4.5 17.1 18.8 19.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 1,428 1,225 (14) 1,370 19.7 959 24 30 36 19 25 19 59 47 39 36 29 24 14 13 11 26 29 30 0.8 1.0 1.2 29
Tata Chemicals ADD 579 700 21 147 2.1 255 40 48 53 (22) 18 11.8 14.3 12.2 10.9 6.6 5.4 4.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 8.9 9.8 10.3 2.6 2.9 2.9 7.1
Commodity Chemicals Neutral 1,517 21.8 2.1 23 17 45 37 31 26 21 18 7.0 6.4 5.9 15.6 17.6 18.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 36
Conglomerate
Godrej Industries RS 528 — — 280 4.0 336 16 20 — 8.9 24 33 27 40 44 4.3 3.8 13.9 15.1 0.3 0.3 3.1
Conglomerate Neutral 280 4.0 8.9 24 52 42 40 44 6.9 6.0 13.1 14.2 0.2 0.2 3.1
Construction Materials
ACC SELL 1,571 1,280 (19) 295 4.2 188 54 68 79 9.9 27 15 29 23 20.0 15 12 10.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 10.1 11.6 12.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 15.6
Ambuja Cements REDUCE 230 190 (17) 456 6.6 1,986 7.2 9.4 11.2 (4.8) 31 19 32 24 21 9.8 8.2 6.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 6.6 8.1 9.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 8.5
Dalmia Bharat ADD 1,078 1,170 3 207 2.9 192 6.6 35 50 (55) 421 44 172 33 23 14 10.6 9.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 6.2 8.3 — — — 0.0
Grasim Industries ADD 823 930 13 541 7.8 657 65 74 98 37 13.6 33 12.7 11.1 8.4 7.6 7.0 5.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 7.3 7.9 9.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 16.1
India Cements REDUCE 103 84 (19) 32 0.5 308 3.0 6.4 9.0 (7.9) 112 42 34 16.2 11.4 9.4 7.6 6.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8 3.7 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.5
J K Cement ADD 830 770 (7) 64 0.9 70 31 61 62 (28) 97 1.9 27 13.6 13.4 11.3 9.9 8.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 10.3 16.5 14.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3
JK Lakshmi Cement ADD 360 325 (10) 42 0.6 118 3.1 22 31 (31) 624 37 116 16.0 11.7 13 7.7 6.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.5 16.8 19.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4
Orient Cement ADD 89 80 (10) 18 0.3 205 0.1 6.2 10.4 (97.5) 11,412 67 1,656 14.4 8.6 13 7.0 5.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.1 12.4 18.5 1.7 2.2 2.2 0.1
Shree Cement SELL 17,823 11,750 (34) 621 8.9 35 339 512 642 (15) 51 25 53 35 28 22 16 13 6.4 5.5 4.7 12.7 17.0 18.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 6.0
UltraTech Cement SELL 4,026 2,550 (37) 1,106 15.9 275 79 128 166 (10.7) 62 30 51 32 24 22 16 13 4.0 3.6 3.1 8.1 12.0 13.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 21
Construction Materials Cautious 3,396 48.9 4.2 42 28 32 23 17.7 12 10.0 8.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 7.0 9.2 10.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 76

52
Fair O/S ADVT
53
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Crompton Greaves Consumer SELL 225 200 (11) 141 2.0 627 6.0 7.2 8.5 16 21 17 38 31 27 23 20 17 13 9.7 7.5 39 35 32 0.9 1.1 — 1.6
Havells India SELL 767 520 (32) 479 6.9 625 13.4 17 20 21 23 18 57 46 39 37 30 25 11 10.0 8.7 21 23 24 0.6 0.8 0.9 13.7
Page Industries SELL 23,903 22,300 (7) 267 3.8 11 397 479 578 28 21 21 60 50 41 39 32 26 27 22 17 48 48 47 1.1 0.9 1.1 19.1
TCNS Clothing Co. ADD 800 855 7 49 0.7 64 21 22 27 37 5.2 22 38 36 30 25 19 15 8.7 6.8 5.3 26 21 20 — — — 0.4
Vardhman Textiles ADD 1,065 1,230 15 61 0.9 56 124 129 139 20.8 4.1 7.5 8.6 8.2 7.7 6.8 6.5 5.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 13.4 12.6 12.4 1.9 2.8 2.8 0.3
Voltas SELL 618 500 (19) 205 2.9 331 16 18 22 (5.2) 11.8 20 38 34 28 28 24 21 4.7 4.3 3.8 13.2 13.4 14.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 10.8
Whirlpool SELL 1,597 1,220 (24) 203 2.9 127 33 40 46 20 21 15 48 40 35 30 24 21 9.5 8.0 7.0 21 22 22 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 1,405 20.2 17 16 41 35 30 26 22 19 7.4 6.5 18.3 18.6 18.9 0.7 0.8 47
Consumer Staples
Bajaj Consumer Care ADD 329 405 23 48 0.7 148 15 17 19 7.8 10.1 9.1 21 19.3 17.7 16 14 13 10 10 10 47 53 57 4.3 4.3 4.6 1.4
Britannia Industries REDUCE 3,127 2,935 (6) 751 10.8 240 50 60 71 19 21 18 63 52 44 41 34 29 18 15 12 31 31 30 0.6 0.7 0.9 14.2
Colgate-Palmolive (India) ADD 1,276 1,400 10 347 5.0 272 27 32 37 16 16 17 46 40 34 27 23 20 20 18 15 46 47 48 1.3 1.5 1.8 9.8
Dabur India REDUCE 440 390 (11) 778 11.2 1,762 8.8 10.3 11.9 12.8 17 16 50 43 37 42 35 30 14 12 10 27 30 30 0.9 1.0 1.2 16.1
GlaxoSmithKline Consumer RS 7,245 — — 305 4.4 42 218 240 265 31 10.1 10.6 33 30 27 24 21 18 7.7 6.8 6.2 25 24 24 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.6
Godrej Consumer Products REDUCE 724 700 (3) 740 10.6 1,022 15 18 21 6.6 19 16 48 40 35 33 28 24 9.7 8.5 7.5 22 23 23 0.8 0.9 1.0 12.3
Hindustan Unilever REDUCE 1,748 1,600 (8) 3,783 54.4 2,160 29 34 39 18 18 13.8 61 52 45 42 35 31 47 39 33 83 83 79 1.2 1.4 1.5 41
ITC ADD 295 325 10 3,613 52.0 12,275 9.8 11.0 12.2 10.4 11.3 11.8 30 27 24 20 17 15 6.6 6.2 5.8 21 22 24 1.9 2.3 2.6 55
Jyothy Laboratories ADD 187 210 12 69 1.0 364 5.5 6.2 7.2 24 13.8 16 34 30 26 24 20 17 5.1 4.5 4.0 16.2 16.0 16.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.9
Marico ADD 343 380 11 443 6.4 1,291 7.2 8.8 10.3 14.5 23 17 48 39 33 34 28 23 16 15 13 35 40 42 1.4 1.6 1.8 9.0
Nestle India REDUCE 10,723 10,600 (1) 1,034 14.9 96 167 194 220 31 16 13.7 64 55 49 38 33 28 28 26 24 45 49 51 1.1 1.2 1.4 14.1
Tata Global Beverages ADD 203 220 8 128 1.8 631 7.3 8.7 9.8 — 18 13.0 28 23 21 16 14 12 1.8 1.7 1.6 6.5 7.4 8.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 5.7
United Breweries REDUCE 1,373 1,390 1 363 5.2 264 24 30 37 59 26 23 58 46 37 29 25 21 11 9.3 7.7 21 22 23 0.3 0.4 0.5 13.5
United Spirits REDUCE 576 550 (5) 419 6.0 727 10.9 13.3 17 44 22 25 53 43 35 33 27 22 13 8.6 5.9 27 24 20 — 0.3 0.4 14.1
Varun Beverages BUY 812 900 11 148 2.1 183 16 19 26 39 22 33 51 42 31 17 15 11.7 7.4 6.4 5.4 15.5 16.5 18.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.2
Consumer Staples Cautious 12,968 186.6 16 15 14.2 44 38 33 29 25 22 12 11 9.5 27 28 28 1.3 1.5 1.7 210
Diversified Financials
Bajaj Finance REDUCE 2,828 2,250 (20) 1,634 23.5 575 67 90 118 54 34 31 42 31 24 — — — 8.5 6.8 5.5 22 24 25 0.2 0.3 0.4 60
Bajaj Finserv ADD 6,898 6,500 (6) 1,098 15.8 159 242 307 384 38 27 25 29 22 18.0 — — — 4.5 3.8 3.1 17.5 18.3 19.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 21
Bharat Financial Inclusion NA 1,020 — — 143 2.1 139 63 68 86 93 8.1 27 16.2 14.9 11.8 — — — 3.6 2.9 2.3 25 21 21 — — — 7.9
Cholamandalam BUY 1,354 1,475 9 212 3.0 156 76 91 111 30 20 22 17.7 14.8 12.2 — — — 3.6 2.9 2.5 21 21 21 0.7 0.8 1.0 5.8
HDFC ADD 1,951 2,125 9 3,356 48.3 1,676 54 60 71 (29) 11.6 18 36 33 28 — — — 4.5 4.1 3.8 13.3 13.2 14.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 77

IIFL Holdings REDUCE 404 410 1 129 1.9 319 26 28 33 (9.0) 9.4 17 15.6 14.2 12.1 — — — 2.3 2.0 1.8 15.6 15.1 15.9 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.3
L&T Finance Holdings REDUCE 145 145 (0) 290 4.2 1,996 11.7 13.0 15.0 59 11.2 16 12.4 11.2 9.7 — — — 2.1 1.8 1.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 13.4
LIC Housing Finance BUY 504 590 17 255 3.7 505 46 54 63 4.8 17 17 11.0 9.4 8.0 — — — 1.7 1.4 1.2 16.2 16.0 16.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 13.1
Magma Fincorp BUY 118 145 23 32 0.5 237 11.3 15 18 16 35 18 10.5 7.7 6.6 — — — 1.2 1.0 0.9 12.1 14.3 14.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 0.3
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 433 475 10 267 3.8 614 22 27 33 25 23 23 19.7 16.1 13.0 — — — 2.7 2.5 2.2 13.6 14.9 16.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 10.5
Muthoot Finance ADD 592 550 (7) 237 3.4 400 48 45 50 11.3 (6.0) 11.2 12.4 13.2 11.8 — — — 2.6 2.3 2.0 23 18.3 17.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 9.6
PNB Housing Finance REDUCE 899 950 6 151 2.2 167 62 70 83 (3.5) 12.8 19 14.5 12.9 10.8 — — — 2.1 1.9 1.6 15.1 14.8 15.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.4
Shriram City Union Finance ADD 1,750 1,950 11 115 1.7 66 146 158 188 45 8.2 19 12.0 11.1 9.3 — — — 1.9 1.7 1.5 16.2 15.4 16.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4
Shriram Transport BUY 1,280 1,475 15 290 4.2 227 109 128 147 57 18 15 11.8 10.0 8.7 — — — 2.0 1.7 1.5 16.9 17.3 17.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 21
Diversified Financials Neutral 8,209 118.2 8.0 18 21 26 22 18.0 3.8 3.3 2.9 14.9 15.4 16.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 244


Fair O/S ADVT
Electric Utilities
CESC BUY 731 800 9 97 1.4 133 63 97 107 (6.8) 55 10.4 11.7 7.5 6.8 7.1 5.9 5.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 6.7 10.0 10.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 4.9
JSW Energy REDUCE 68 67 (2) 112 1.6 1,640 4.3 5.4 5.7 42 25 5.6 15.7 12.6 12.0 6.1 5.2 4.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 6.2 7.2 7.1 — — — 0.8
NHPC ADD 25 28 13 250 3.6 10,260 2.7 2.7 3.5 10.4 0.9 28 9.2 9.1 7.2 8.0 7.8 6.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 9.1 8.8 10.9 6.0 5.6 7.3 2.4
NTPC BUY 148 190 28 1,222 17.6 8,245 13.0 14.7 17 3.9 12.8 14.1 11.4 10.1 8.8 9.4 8.3 7.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 2.6 3.0 3.4 24
Power Grid BUY 195 235 21 1,019 14.7 5,232 18 21 24 16 17 11.5 10.6 9.1 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 16.7 17.6 17.6 3.1 3.7 4.1 18.1
Tata Power BUY 74 85 15 200 2.9 2,705 4.4 5.2 7.6 (18.3) 19 46 16.9 14.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 7.5 8.2 10.9 — — — 6.3
Electric Utilities Attractive 2,899 41.7 7.8 15 15 11.2 9.8 8.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 10.7 11.4 12.2 2.8 3.1 3.6 56
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience SELL 4,300 3,550 (17) 148 2.1 34 94 114 135 7.4 21 19 46 38 32 28 23 19 7.3 6.4 5.5 17.0 18.0 18.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
Dhanuka Agritech ADD 427 435 2 21 0.3 49 20 24 28 (22.1) 21 17 21 17.7 15.1 15 12 9.8 3.0 2.6 2.3 14.7 15.8 16.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.1
Godrej Agrovet ADD 519 540 4 100 1.4 189 11.4 16 20 (1.0) 38 26 46 33 26 22 17 14 5.2 4.5 3.9 12.2 14.6 15.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Kaveri Seed SELL 433 515 19 27 0.4 66 34 34 37 7.3 0.1 8.3 12.6 12.6 11.6 9.3 8.6 7.5 3.0 2.6 2.3 26 22 21 1.8 2.3 2.3 10.8
PI Industries BUY 1,003 970 (3) 138 2.0 138 30 39 46 13.9 27 19 33 26 22 24 18 15 6.1 5.1 4.3 20.0 21 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.5
Rallis India ADD 162 195 20 32 0.5 195 8.8 10.5 11.1 1.7 20 5.4 18.5 15.4 14.6 12 10.2 9.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 13.8 15.4 15.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 0.8
UPL ADD 911 775 (15) 464 6.7 507 45 55 62 6.0 21 12.9 20 16.6 14.7 12 10.5 9.3 4.3 3.5 3.0 23 23 22 0.9 1.2 1.4 22
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Attractive 930 13.4 5.5 21 14.5 25 20 17.8 15 13 11.1 4.7 3.9 3.4 18.8 19.4 18.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 36
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) BUY 352 455 29 793 11.4 2,255 29 33 34 40 13.8 5.9 12.3 10.8 10.2 7.9 6.9 6.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 15.3 16.0 15.5 3.1 3.3 3.6 22
GSPL SELL 180 170 (5) 101 1.5 564 15 14.3 13.6 31 (7.6) (4.6) 11.6 12.6 13.2 4.9 4.8 4.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 16.1 13.2 11.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
Indraprastha Gas SELL 291 250 (14) 204 2.9 700 11.9 13.7 15 16 14.7 11.3 24 21 19.2 15 13 11.7 5.0 4.4 3.9 22 22 22 0.9 1.3 1.7 9.0
Mahanagar Gas ADD 921 950 3 91 1.3 99 57 62 64 19 7.6 4.2 16.1 14.9 14.3 9.4 8.6 8.0 3.8 3.4 3.1 25 24 23 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.3
Petronet LNG BUY 243 270 11 364 5.2 1,500 15 18 20 11.2 15 11.8 15.7 13.6 12.2 10.4 8.9 7.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 23 24 24 3.2 3.7 4.5 9.9
Gas Utilities Attractive 1,553 22.3 29 12.4 6.8 14.1 12.6 11.7 8.7 7.7 7.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 16.5 16.9 16.5 2.7 3.0 3.4 46
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals ADD 1,118 1,275 14 155 2.2 139 23 30 37 177 30 21 48 37 30 18 15 13 4.5 4.1 3.8 9.6 11.7 12.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 15.2
Aster DM Healthcare BUY 155 240 55 78 1.1 505 6.1 8.3 11.9 120 37 44 26 18.7 13.0 12.0 9.7 7.7 2.5 2.3 2.0 10.3 12.7 16.1 — — — 0.3
Dr Lal Pathlabs SELL 1,050 945 (10) 88 1.3 83 24 28 33 17 15 18 44 38 32 27 23 19 9.3 7.8 6.6 23 22 22 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.4
HCG BUY 199 260 31 17 0.3 85 (2.5) 0.9 3.4 (261) 137 263 NM 214 59 18 15 12 3.4 3.4 3.2 NM 1.6 5.6 — — — 0.2
Narayana Hrudayalaya BUY 224 265 18 46 0.7 204 1.9 4.5 7.5 (25) 139 64 118 49 30 19 16 12 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.7 8.3 12.2 — — — 0.2
Health Care Services Attractive 385 5.5 72 38 34 45 33 24 17 14 11.9 4.2 3.8 3.4 9.3 11.7 13.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 17.3
Hotels & Restaurants
Coffee Day Enterprises NR 297 — — 63 0.9 211 7.6 10.1 12.5 127 34 24 39 29 24 13 11.0 10.1 2.5 2.3 0.0 6.5 8.1 9.2 — — — 1.0
Jubilant Foodworks BUY 1,327 1,450 9 175 2.5 132 24 32 42 67 33 30 54 41 32 27 21 17 13 10 7.9 28 28 28 0.2 0.2 0.3 48
Lemon Tree Hotels ADD 83 80 (4) 66 0.9 786 0.5 1.2 2.0 162 157 68 176 68 41 43 24 18 7.7 6.9 6.4 4.5 10.6 16.3 — — 1.1 0.8
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 304 4.4 88 42 33 58 41 31 22 17 14 6.4 5.6 4.8 11.0 13.6 15.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 50
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance ADD 366 435 19 739 10.6 2,007 6.5 8.1 9.8 18 24 21 56 45 37 — — — 14 12 11 26 29 31 0.4 0.6 0.7 6.0
ICICI Lombard SELL 967 720 (26) 439 6.3 454 26 32 36 35 24 15 38 31 27 — — — 8.1 6.8 5.7 23 24 23 0.6 0.8 0.9 4.2
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 334 480 44 479 6.9 1,436 8.9 10.3 12.3 (21) 16 20 37 32 27 — — — 6.3 5.5 4.7 18.1 18.1 18.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 9.4
Max Financial Services BUY 432 530 23 116 1.7 268 6.3 6.4 6.5 37 1.8 1.8 69 68 66 — — — 8.3 8.0 7.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.0
SBI Life Insurance BUY 615 790 28 615 8.9 1,000 12.7 14.3 16 10.8 12.4 12.1 48 43 38 — — — 8.1 7.0 6.1 18.0 17.5 17.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 16.0
Insurance Attractive 2,389 34.4 6.8 18 17 46 39 33 8.5 7.4 6.5 18.6 19.1 19.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 40

54
Fair O/S ADVT
55
Internet Software & Services
Info Edge ADD 1,897 1,720 (9) 232 3.3 121.6 24 32 39 6.8 35 20 79 58 49 63 44 36 8.7 7.9 7.1 12.3 14.2 15.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 6.6
Just Dial ADD 627 545 (13) 41 0.6 67.4 30 31 33 39 5.1 6.8 21 20 18.9 13 11.4 10.3 4.4 3.7 3.1 20 19.8 17.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 13.0
Internet Software & Services Attractive 272 3.9 16 23 15 56 46 40 43 34 29 7.6 6.8 6.0 13.6 14.8 15.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 19.6
IT Services
HCL Technologies ADD 1,028 1,140 11 1,395 20.1 1,409 73 78 82 17 6.7 6.3 14.1 13.3 12.5 9.3 8.3 7.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 25 22 21 0.8 3.0 3.2 27
Hexaware Technologies REDUCE 337 345 2 100 1.4 302 19 21 25 17 10.9 16 17.5 15.7 13.6 13 10.7 9.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 27 25 26 2.5 2.5 3.0 6.4
Infosys ADD 708 760 7 3,095 44.5 4,350 36 40 44 11.2 10.6 10.9 19.7 17.8 16.1 14 12 10.9 4.5 4.2 3.8 24 24 25 3.6 3.1 3.4 84
L&T Infotech ADD 1,633 2,000 23 283 4.1 175 86 96 112 35 11.9 16 19.0 17.0 14.6 14 11.9 9.9 6.0 4.8 3.9 35 31 30 1.5 1.6 1.8 4.2
Mindtree ADD 924 1,000 8 152 2.2 165 45 52 61 31 14.1 17 20 17.8 15.2 13 11.1 9.4 4.7 4.0 3.5 25 24 24 1.5 1.7 2.0 22
Mphasis REDUCE 975 900 (8) 182 2.6 193 56 63 65 29 11.1 3.7 17.3 15.6 15.0 13 10.7 10.0 3.6 3.2 2.9 20 22 20 2.1 2.6 3.1 4.5
TCS REDUCE 2,001 1,825 (9) 7,507 108.0 3,829 83 91 100 23 10.3 9.6 24 22 20.0 18 16 14 7.4 7.0 6.6 33 33 34 1.7 3.2 3.5 87
Tech Mahindra ADD 790 875 11 697 10.0 891 49 56 64 13.8 16 14.5 16.3 14.1 12.3 9.7 8.1 6.8 3.2 2.7 2.3 21 21 20 1.2 1.3 1.4 35
Wipro REDUCE 258 265 3 1,556 22.4 6,009 15 18 20 19 19 9.2 17.0 14.3 13.1 11.1 9.3 8.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 17.0 17.8 18.3 0.6 3.9 4.3 31
IT Services Cautious 14,966 215.4 16 10.8 9.9 20 18.2 16.5 14 12 11.2 4.8 4.4 4.0 24 24 24 1.9 3.1 3.4 301
Media
DB Corp. ADD 198 220 11 35 0.5 184 16 21 24 (10.5) 31 18 12.5 9.6 8.1 6.5 5.0 4.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 14.9 19.5 21 2.0 5.1 6.3 0.3
DishTV ADD 38 30 (20) 69 1.0 1,925 0.2 1.4 2.4 145 593 71 189 27 15.9 4.1 3.4 2.7 14 10 7.2 7.9 43 53 — — — 10.6
Jagran Prakashan REDUCE 112 110 (2) 33 0.5 311 8.9 11.1 13.0 (8.1) 25 17 12.6 10.1 8.6 5.3 4.4 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 13.4 17.6 20 4.5 8.0 8.0 0.2
PVR RS 1,625 NA - 76 1.1 47 37 51 65 38 37 28 44 32 25 16 12 10.6 6.4 5.4 4.5 15.5 18.3 19.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 9.0
Sun TV Network REDUCE 613 600 (2) 241 3.5 394 38 39 42 31 2.7 7.4 16.2 15.8 14.7 10.7 10.2 9.4 4.5 4.0 3.6 30 27 26 2.4 2.9 3.3 21
Zee Entertainment Enterprises ADD 448 400 (11) 430 6.2 960 17 20 22 14.7 15 11.9 26 23 20 15 14 12 5.0 4.4 3.9 20 21 20 1.0 1.2 1.6 71
Media Attractive 885 12.7 20 19 16 23 19.1 16.5 10.2 9.0 8.0 4.6 4.0 3.6 20 21 22 1.4 1.9 2.2 112
Metals & Mining
Hindalco Industries BUY 202 275 36 454 6.5 2,229 27 27 29 24 (1.3) 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.0 5.0 4.8 4.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 10.5 9.5 9.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 24
Hindustan Zinc REDUCE 277 235 (15) 1,169 16.8 4,225 20 20 21 (6.0) (0.1) 7.3 13.9 13.9 13.0 8.6 7.9 7.1 3.4 3.1 2.8 24 23 23 7.2 3.6 3.8 3.0
Jindal Steel and Power REDUCE 167 145 (13) 162 2.3 968 4.4 4.4 13.2 152 (0.1) 198 38 38 12.7 6.8 6.9 5.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.4 4.1 — — — 27
JSW Steel REDUCE 286 265 (7) 692 10.0 2,406 31 19 23 17 (38) 16 9.1 14.7 12.7 6.2 8.2 7.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 25 13.5 14.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 28
National Aluminium Co. BUY 53 78 49 98 1.4 1,933 9.7 6.7 7.0 236 (31.3) 4.4 5.4 7.8 7.5 2.4 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 17.3 11.9 12.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 9.9
NMDC REDUCE 114 110 (3) 360 5.2 3,164 13.5 9.4 10.1 15 (31) 7.6 8.4 12.2 11.3 5.1 7.4 6.8 1.4 1.3 0.0 16.8 11.0 11.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.3
Tata Steel ADD 514 535 4 583 8.4 1,205 87 68 81 29 (21.7) 19 5.9 7.5 6.3 5.5 6.5 6.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 16.7 12.1 13.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 60
Vedanta BUY 172 275 60 638 9.2 3,717 18 29 30 (14.7) 59 2.8 9.3 5.9 5.7 5.5 4.3 4.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 10.9 16.9 16.4 9.9 9.9 9.9 37

Metals & Mining Attractive 4,157 59.8 15 (6.7) 11.3 9.1 9.7 8.7 5.9 6.0 5.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 14.1 12.4 12.8 4.8 3.8 3.8 29



Fair O/S ADVT
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

BPCL SELL 389 275 (29) 844 12.1 1,967 30 33 35 (25) 10.6 6.5 13.0 11.7 11.0 9.4 8.6 8.0 2.1 1.9 1.7 16.5 16.8 16.4 3.1 3.4 3.6 23
Coal India BUY 239 290 22 1,481 21.3 6,207 26 27 28 128 5.7 1.0 9.2 8.7 8.7 6.6 6.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.3 64 67 71 8.4 10.5 10.5 25
HPCL SELL 268 185 (31) 408 5.9 1,524 31 27 29 (26) (12.3) 7.3 8.7 9.9 9.2 7.6 8.8 8.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 18.8 15.1 15.0 4.7 4.1 4.4 21
IOCL SELL 149 120 (19) 1,445 20.8 9,479 16 15 17 (22) (4.4) 8.7 9.3 9.7 8.9 5.4 5.7 5.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 13.4 12.0 12.2 4.3 4.1 4.5 29
Oil India BUY 175 235 34 199 2.9 1,135 29 30 31 17.7 4.8 0.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 4.4 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 11.5 11.4 11.0 7.5 7.8 7.9 4.2
ONGC BUY 150 215 44 1,922 27.7 3,752 24 26 26 40 5.3 0.5 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 13.3 13.0 12.2 5.3 5.7 5.7 27
Reliance Industries SELL 1,347 1,070 (21) 7,973 114.8 5,922 67 78 89 13.0 17 14.2 20 17.2 15.1 13 10.9 9.1 2.4 2.2 1.9 11.8 12.3 12.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 162
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Attractive 14,272 205.4 15.0 7.7 7.2 12.3 11.4 10.7 7.8 7.1 6.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 14.3 14.2 13.9 2.7 3.0 3.0 290
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma ADD 766 785 2 449 6.5 584 41 61 64 (1.5) 48 5.4 18.6 12.6 11.9 13 8.8 8.1 3.2 2.6 2.2 18.9 21 18.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 28
Biocon SELL 619 370 (40) 371 5.3 601 11.6 16 19 88 42 14.9 53 38 33 28 20 17 5.9 5.2 4.7 11.7 14.7 14.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 15.4
Cipla BUY 533 600 13 429 6.2 805 19 25 32 6.1 34 28 29 21 16.8 16 12 9.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 9.9 12.1 13.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 15.8
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 2,656 2,450 (8) 441 6.3 166 115 132 165 95 14.2 25 23 20 16.1 14 10.1 7.9 3.1 2.7 2.4 14.2 13.6 14.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 40
Laurus Labs BUY 362 400 10 39 0.6 106 11.0 20 27 (30.6) 80 35 33 18.3 13.5 13 8.9 7.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 7.6 12.4 13.7 — — — 0.5
Lupin REDUCE 764 820 7 346 5.0 450 24 33 46 (38) 40 40 32 23 16.5 15 10.9 8.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 7.6 10.0 12.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 22
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 457 475 4 1,095 15.8 2,406 18 22 27 16 23 23 26 21 17.1 13 10.6 8.6 2.7 2.4 2.1 10.7 12.0 12.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 73
Torrent Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,815 1,950 7 307 4.4 169 48 60 79 20 24 32 38 30 23 16 14 12 6.0 5.4 4.7 16.0 17.7 20 1.1 1.3 1.5 6.1
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 3,477 50.0 11.6 31 22 27 21 17.1 15 11.2 9.3 3.1 2.8 2.4 11.4 13.2 14.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 199
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises BUY 231 290 26 31 0.5 136 21 26 32 85 25 25 11.3 9.0 7.2 9.0 7.4 5.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 11.6 13.0 14.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5
DLF ADD 192 200 4 343 4.9 1,784 7.0 8.2 8.7 (71) 17.4 5.2 27 23 22 23 25 27 1.1 1.1 1.0 3.8 4.7 4.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 18.0
Godrej Properties SELL 698 400 (43) 160 2.3 216 7.1 23 24 (35) 231 4.2 98 30 29 165 27 27 4.7 4.1 3.6 5.8 14.6 13.3 — — — 2.8
Oberoi Realty BUY 481 470 (2) 175 2.5 340 47 35 56 273 (26) 60 10.2 13.8 8.6 11.3 14 5.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 22 12.8 17.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.1
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 208 270 30 78 1.1 375 10.6 12.9 20 7 22 58 19.7 16.2 10.3 10.5 10.0 7.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 9.0 11.3 15.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1
Sobha REDUCE 441 495 12 42 0.6 95 26 33 39 14.8 24 18 16.7 13.5 11.4 11.9 9.9 9.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 10.1 13.5 14.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3
Sunteck Realty REDUCE 449 360 (20) 66 0.9 140 17 20 36 14.2 13.0 84 26 23 12.4 22 19 9.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 8.9 9.3 15.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8
Real Estate Neutral 895 12.9 (30) 9.8 32 21 19.4 14.7 17 16 12 1.6 1.5 1.4 7.7 7.9 9.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 29
Retailing
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail BUY 227 235 3 175 2.5 773 2.1 3.2 5.2 35 54 63 110 71 44 31 24 19 14 12 9.2 13.6 17.9 24 — — — 4.0
Avenue Supermarts SELL 1,500 915 (39) 936 13.5 624 15 20 26 25 32 29 97 74 57 56 42 33 17 14 11 18.7 20 21 — — — 0.0
Titan Company REDUCE 1,078 900 (17) 957 13.8 888 17 21 25 33 26 18 63 51 43 42 34 27 16 13 11 27 28 27 0.4 0.5 0.6 38
Retailing Cautious 2,069 29.8 30 30 26 79 61 48 46 36 28 16 13 11 20 22 22 0.2 0.2 0.3 42
Speciality Chemicals
Castrol India SELL 167 145 (13) 165 2.4 989 7.2 7.8 8.4 4.2 9.0 7.9 23 21 19.8 15 13 12 14 13 11 65 62 60 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.2
Pidilite Industries REDUCE 1,176 1,025 (13) 598 8.6 508 18 23 28 (2.8) 31 20 66 50 42 42 33 28 15 13 11 24 27 28 0.6 0.7 0.8 10.6
S H Kelkar and Company BUY 152 210 38 22 0.3 145 6.3 8.3 9.8 (14.6) 32 18 24 18.2 15.5 16 12 10.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 10.3 12.5 13.5 1.2 1.3 1.8 0.5
SRF BUY 2,403 2,300 (4) 138 2.0 57 102 127 144 27 24 13.2 23 18.9 16.7 13 11.1 9.8 3.4 2.9 2.6 15.4 16.7 16.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 13.9
Speciality Chemicals Neutral 922 13.3 5.2 23 14.7 40 33 29 24 20 17 9.0 7.8 6.8 23 24 24 1.0 1.1 1.3 28

56
Fair O/S ADVT
57
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 338 380 13 1,350 19.4 3,997 (10.0) (11.0) (5.4) NM NM NM NM NM NM 9.8 8.7 7.3 2.1 2.4 2.7 NM NM NM 1.8 1.8 1.8 35
Bharti Infratel REDUCE 313 275 (12) 579 8.3 1,850 14.0 13.3 14.9 1.7 (5.2) 12.6 22 24 21 8.7 9.1 8.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 15.5 14.9 16.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 16.8
Vodafone Idea NR 34 — — 297 4.3 4,359 (10.7) (2.4) (6.9) NM NM NM NM NM NM 33 11.8 10.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 NM NM NM — — — 11.5
Tata Communications ADD 600 580 (3) 171 2.5 285 (4.2) 3.0 5.2 NM 172 72 NM 200 116 10.9 9.8 9.1 NM NM 1,322 NM NM NM 1.1 1.3 1.3 4.2
Telecommunication Services Cautious 2,397 34.5 NM 10.8 25 NM NM NM 12 9.5 8.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 NM NM NM 1.9 1.8 1.9 67
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 367 390 6 760 10.9 2,071 21 23 29 16 7.2 27 17.2 16.0 12.6 13 11.2 9.9 3.1 2.7 2.3 19.5 18.1 19.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 26
Container Corp. SELL 523 460 (12) 318 4.6 609 14.9 17 20 2.0 17 16 35 30 26 20 17 14 3.2 3.0 2.8 9.3 10.2 11.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 8.9
Gateway Distriparks BUY 125 180 44 14 0.2 109 6.4 3.7 6.2 (16.0) (42) 68 19.5 34 20 21 8.7 7.5 1.3 2.3 2.1 6.6 4.8 10.8 — 2.4 2.4 0.3
Gujarat Pipavav Port BUY 94 115 23 45 0.7 483 4.6 5.4 6.5 12.3 17 20 20 17.3 14.5 10.4 8.9 7.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 11.0 12.6 14.9 4.2 4.9 5.8 0.6
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 1,302 1,235 (5) 500 7.2 383 (5) 36 80 (109) 786 123 NM 36 16.3 NM 22 8.9 7.2 6.1 4.6 NM 18.2 32 — 0.1 0.6 19.5
Mahindra Logistics REDUCE 499 470 (6) 36 0.5 71 12.0 16 21 22 33 33 42 31 24 23 17 13 7.2 6.1 5.0 18.7 21 23 — — — 0.2
Transportation Attractive 1,674 24.1 (25) 38 43 30 22 15.4 20 14 10.1 3.7 3.3 2.8 12.3 15.1 18.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 55
KIE universe 111,639 1606.5 16 30 17 23 18.1 15.5 11.4 10.1 8.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 11.9 13.9 14.7 1.4 1.7 1.9
KIE universe (ex-Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels) 97,367 1401.1 16 37 19 27 19.8 16.6 13 11.2 9.8 3.1 2.7 2.5 11.3 13.9 14.9 1.2 1.5 1.8
Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2019 means calendar year 2018, similarly for 2020 and 2021 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 69.48


Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe
Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional
70%
Equities, within the specified category.
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We

expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the
29.1% 29.6% next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver 5-15%
30%
returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We expect this stock
22.2% to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months; Sell = We
19.2%
20% expect this stock to deliver less than -5% returns over the next
12 months. Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon
basis. These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
10%
3.9% applicable regulations. As of 31/12/2018 Kotak Institutional
1.5% 1.0% 0.0% Equities Investment Research had investment ratings on 203
0% equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities As of December 31, 2018
Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

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INDIA DAILY

March 14, 2019 India 13-Mar 1-day 1-mo 3-mo

Contents Global/Regional indices

Theme Report FTSE 7,159 0.1 (0.5) 4.6

Rs/US$ 69.6 (7) (145) (239)

MFs (69) (120) 1,208

Company alerts Best performers 13-Mar 1-day 1-mo 3-mo

RECL IN Equity 135 1.0 11.8 29.5

Solosec NMDC IN Equity 114 1.7 22.3 21.0

IDBI IN Equity 43 (3.7) (4.6) (29.4)

 RM trends - mixed for agri-commodities; crude fall provides relief

 Individual APE growth picks pace; up 16% yoy in February 2019

Sanctions flat yoy; moving beyond infrastructure

Increase in focus on retail lending and SME space

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 5: Visibility of loan growth continues to decline

Projects Project Project Beyond

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 5

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 10: Industry loan growth has showed signs of revival

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Retail loan growth shines in an otherwise tepid growth environment

6 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Expect retail loans to post 16% CAGR over FY2019-22E

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 7

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Demand for corporate loans remains fairly subdued

8 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 9

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

10 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

C o mpan y d ata an d valuatio n summary

Monsoon-winter range: wider festive season offering at higher price points

Other takeaways from the trade show

12 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Higher GM assumptions drive a 2-3% EPS increase

Exhibit 1: Higher GM assumptions drive a 2-3% EPS upgrade

New estimates Old estimates % revision

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 2: Key assumptions for TCNS, March fiscal year-ends

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 13

Exhibit 3: Condensed consolidated financials of TCNS, March fiscal year-ends, 2013-21

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

14 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Mandideep cephalosporins unit receives OAI status – no financial impact

Exhibit 1: FY2020 to see a pick-up in launches

Exhibit 2: Filing momentum expected to continue

16 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Exhibit 3: Lupin – Segmental revenues

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities, Company

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 17

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities, Company

18 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH