MILLENNIUM POST | New Delhi | Friday, 8 March, 2019

mp in focus 11

Slow strides towards peace

The Vietnam Summit portrayed North Korea’s urge for sanctions relief which the US will
only provide following complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula

A
s far as the Korean Penin-
SUDHAKAR VADDI sula is concerned, one can
declare war in overnight
but can’t declare peace
which can only be built through
a gradual process of mutual trust
among the parties. The second sum-
mit at Hanoi (Vietnam) on February
28, 2019, between the United States
and Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea (DPRK) i.e., North Korea,
unsurprisingly, falls under this cat-
egory. At the Summit, though the
US President Donald Trump and
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
failed to reach an agreement on
denuclearisation, the meeting and
goodwill gesture shown by the two
Pyongyang has leaders displayed advancement in
been clear about their high-wire diplomacy. The first
North Korea-US summit was held
exactly what it in Singapore in June 2018 where
wants. They will President Trump and Kim agreed
for the complete denuclearisation of
not unilaterally the Korean Peninsula. Subsequently,
disarm unless the US suspended the annual joint
naval exercises with South Korea by
it receives sighting that they are highly ‘pro-
something from vocative and expensive’. As a recip-
rocal action, North Korea has not
Washington. made any military provocation dur-
They want a ing this period and it is almost more
than one year since North Korea
staged process conducted its last missile test in
where they give November 2017. It also dismantled
some of its missile and nuclear facili-
a little and get ties including Sohae satellite launch
something in station.
return
Nuclear bargain
During the Hanoi Summit, US
demands comprised for irreversible
steps to scrap North Korea’s nuclear
arsenal, including dismantling its
Yongbyon nuclear complex. Since
North Korea has been pushed into a
corner by the sanctions for its previ-
ous actions, easing of the sanctions
has been a top priority for Pyong-
yang during the summit. In fact,
recently, North Korea requesting
humanitarian assistance from the
United Nations to feed its people
betrays the grave situation prevail-
ing in the impoverished country.
External trade volume fell signifi-
cantly with an export ban on coal,
steel, fisheries and textile prod-
ucts. As a result, the entire indus-
trial production in North Korea has
crashed. Further, due to workers ban
under United Nations (UN) resolu-
Easing of sanctions affecting the livelihood of North Koreans will stimulate the denuclearisation process
tion-2397, other nations including
its trusted ally China sent back tens
of thousands of North Korean work-
ers to home, which eventually cut
off another key source of hard cur-
rency to North Korea. In the sum-
mit, both parties expressed their
points of concern but could not con-
clude an agreement this time. They,
thereby, left an opportunity for a
continuation of the dialogue. Per-
haps, Trump administration likely
calculating a nuclear agreement with
North Korea could help to boost the
president’s chances for re-election in
2020. If this is true, then there would
be some tangible outcome expected
before the US presidential elections
next year.
The point at this juncture is not
whether the international commu-
nity or Washington can trust North
Korea’s efforts or not. Due to the
severity of the imposed sanctions,
factories have closed and military
units are resorting to charcoal-
engine vehicles and ox-driven carts
for transport. Based on the exist-
ing economic turmoil, North Korea
is seeking to ease some of the eco-
nomic sanctions which would affect
ordinary people’s economy and live-
lihood. Pyongyang has been clear
about exactly what it wants. They
will not unilaterally disarm unless
it receives something from Wash-
ington. They want a staged process
where they give a little and get some-
thing in return. It means right now
Pyongyang feels that it has done
enough to warrant sanctions relief.
However, the US has also been abso-
lute on its stand by stating sanctions
relief can be possible only on the
grounds of “complete denucleari-
sation”. President Trump has been
under huge pressure at home with
his opponents accusing him of sell-
by the North Korea including scrap-
ing of few nuclear and missile facili-
ties and the ongoing inter-Korean
rapprochement process is unable to
impress the conventional wisdom
and hardliners of the US and they
still doubt the sincerity of the North
Korean regime. However, by ana-
lysing the past experience, Pyong-
yang possesses a positive reciprocal
track record with Washington. Dur-
ing September 27, 1991, President
George H.W. Bush announced the
removal of all US Tactical Nuclear
Weapons (TNWs) from South
Korea. Within a month, North Korea
halted the reprocessing of spent
fuel to extract plutonium. In early
1992, President Bush announced
the suspension of the annual Team
Spirit joint military exercises. That
very day, a DPRK Foreign Ministry
spokesman announced its intention
to sign a safeguards agreement with
the IAEA. This sequence of events
in the past strongly suggests North
Korea’s willingness to accommo-
date the US on verification in return
for US steps to end enmity through
reciprocity.
Conclusion
The easing of some sanctions
which are affecting the livelihoods of
North Koreans is an urgent point of
need. It motivates the North Korean
leadership to move forward for the
denuclearisation process. Pyong-
yang has called for a step-by-step
model, matching each denucleari-
sation act to a specific concession,
which would be implemented over
a longer timeline to ensure the sta-
bility of the denuclearisation process
(Representational Image) in the Korean Peninsula. We can’t
overlook that it took several decades
ing away the massive US strategic again for the US to accept North
advantage vis-à-vis North Korea in Korea as a negotiating partner and
exchange for worthless concessions. Pyongyang’s ability to come up with
a tangible solution to the nuclear cri-
Experiences in the past ses in the region. In this perspective,
In the past, the goal of the out- the ongoing rapprochement formula
side actors, particularly the US, was would defiantly yield a substantial
somehow to bring North Korea to outcome in the near future and cer-
the negotiation table and setting an tainly, the US holds the key to mov-
agenda for North Korea’s denucle- ing the peace process forward.
arisation process. In fact, Washing- (Dr. Sudhakar Vaddi is an aca-
ton loomed the policy of “maximum demician and has been working on
pressure” by imposing severe eco- the Korean Peninsula for more than
nomic sanction on Pyongyang a decade. He is a recipient of Korea
through the UN. However, the con- Foundation Scholarship. The views
fidence-building measures initiated expressed are strictly personal)

Brexit needs a 2nd referendum tweet

RETWEET
Game theory can explain why a no-deal is the only outcome in everyone’s best interests

A
s the March 29 cut-off date
for Britain’s exit from the
European Union (EU) nears,
there seems to be no consen-
AMIT KAPOOR sus among its politicians on a with-
drawal agreement.
In January, the British Parliament
firmly rejected the deal that had been
agreed upon with the EU by Prime
Minister Theresa May. The deal, which
desperately tried to please both the
Leave and Remain camps by allow-
ing the United Kingdom (UK) to stay
within the EU single market while
allowing for independent trade deals
with other countries, ended in a unan-
imous agreement on rejecting it. For
both factions, it was worse than the sta-
tus quo as it implied staying within EU
and being bound by its rules while for-
feiting the power to influence its laws.
However, with merely a month to
go before the cut-off date for Brexit, the
It is evident possibility that no deal can be agreed
upon by British MPs seems more and
that moving more likely. In fact, ‘game theory’ can
towards a no- explain why a no-deal is the only out-
deal scenario is come that is in everyone’s best interests.
For the benefit of the general reader,
the only likely game theory is a branch of mathemat-
outcome for most ics that explains strategic interaction
between decision-makers. The latter
rational British are considered “players” in a “game”,
MPs even though who have to choose from a set of strat-
egies available to them. Each player is
supporting assumed to be rational in the sense
May’s deal is that they choose the highest payoff for
themselves.
a scenario that In Britain’s case, the players are the
nobody favours MPs in the Leave and Remain camps. It
must be noted that such an assumption
in particular but is quite simplistic in nature as the lean-
has something for ings of the political class in Britain are
not as binary. But it should serve the
everybody purposes of our model without deviat-
ing away from reality too much. Cur-
rently, both sides have two options to
choose from: back May’s deal or reject
it. The game theoretic approach shows
why it is in both their interests to reject
her deal. For those familiar with math-
ematical jargon, the game is akin to the
Prisoner’s Dilemma.
In the case of the Leave MPs, sup-
porting May’s deal can result in either
of two outcomes: the deal goes through
as it is or May pushes it through by giv-
ing some concessions to the Remain
camp like staying within the customs
union to gain a few votes from them.
A no-deal Brexit will prevent a range of economic disruptions 
On the other hand, rejecting her deal
can imply that May agrees to conces-
sions for their own camp or Britain
crashes out of the EU with no deal in
place. The latter option works in the
best interests for the Leave MPs. Ratio-
nality, thus, implies rejecting May’s
deal.
Meanwhile, a similar line of rea-
soning is also being followed by the
opposite group. For the Remainers,
supporting May implies that it can
either go through as it is or she gives out
some concessions to the Leave MPs. To
the contrary, rejecting it would mean
that she could agree to pro-Remain
concessions. It could also result in a
no-deal scenario, which wouldn’t be in
their best interest. But there is always a
possibility of a second referendum or
general elections taking place before
March 29, which could help the cause
of the Remains.
So, it is evident that moving towards
a no-deal scenario is the only likely
outcome for most rational British MPs
even though supporting May’s deal is
a scenario that nobody favours in par-
ticular but has something for every-
body (like the outcome in Prisoner’s
Dilemma where both snitch on each
other even though the scenario where
nobody talks gets them lower jail time).
Even hard Brexiteers agree that a
no-deal scenario would be extremely
disruptive for the British economy at
least in the short term. Within a day,
UK would crash out of the EU. WTO
trading rules would apply between the
two. Border checks would become nec-
essary. The supply of essential goods
will be affected. Free movement of
people between UK and EU would
immediately come to a halt. Flights
would have to be limited. And the most
concerning outcome would be a hard
border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland, which could spiral into need-
less sectarian violence and bloodshed.
The Leave campaign sees bene-
MAMATA BANERJEE
@MamataOfficial
Fondly remembering Kalika Prasad
Bhattacharya, exponent of folk music, on
his death anniversary. We lost him too
soon
PMO INDIA
@PMOIndia
Common Mobility Cards, RuPay cards
and BHIMApp indicate the rising
influence of digital transactions in our
country: PM @narendramodi
HUSAIN HAQQANI
@husainhaqqani
(Representational Image)
fits in these short-term disruptions.
They have argued for a Brexit so that Pakistan says it will finally act against
Britain could get greater control over Internationally designated terrorists,
its trade deals and its borders. How- after years of describing Pakistanis who
ever, the question remains whether the
demanded that as ‘traitors.’
price that an already-ailing economy
of the UK will have to pay for such
an outcome will be worth the losses.
For some Leave supporters, a no-deal
Brexit is the truest form of Brexit. But
there are many Brexiteers who dread
the idea of a no-deal. So, like we have MARKANDEY KATJU
argued before, a second referendum @mkatju
should be the answer for Britain now
that the voters are more aware of the
likely outcomes. The only other option
is no-deal and an avoidable economic
disruption. No Brexit voter in 2016 Instead of attacking these poor helpless
could have foreseen the present out- people why don't you thugs come to me.
come. IANS I am myself a Kashmiri. I have a danda
(Amit Kapoor is chair, Institute waiting for you, and is getting impatient.
for Competitiveness. Chirag Yadav,
senior researcher, Institute for Compet-
itiveness, has contributed to the article.
Views expressed are strictly personal)