SDSM 4.

2 — A decision support tool for the Preface

assessment of regional climate change impacts

S D S M

User Manual
Acknowledgements

i Preface
ii Acknowledgements

0 TECHNICAL INFORMATION

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1
1.1.1
1.1.2
1.1.3
1.1.4
1.2
1.3

2 OVERVIEW OF SDSM STRUCTURE AND UKSDSM ARCHIVE

2.1
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4
2.1.5
2.1.6
2.1.7
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5

3 GETTING STARTED

3.1
3.2

4 QUALITY CONTROL AND DATA TRANSFORMATION

4.1
4.2

5 SCREENING OF DOWNSCALING PREDICTOR VARIABLES

5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4

6 MODEL CALIBRATION
 0 TECHNICAL INFORMATION
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4

7 WEATHER GENERATOR

7.1
7.2
7.3

8 ANALYSIS OF OBSERVED AND DOWNSCALED DATA

8.1
8.2
8.3

9 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

9.1
9.2
9.3

10 SCENARIO GENERATION

10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4

11 GRAPHING MONTHLY STATISTICS

11.1
11.2
11.3

12 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

12.1
12.2

13 FINAL CAUTIONARY REMARKS

BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX 1: ENHANCEMENTS SINCE SDSM VERSION 3.1

APPENDIX 2: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

GLOSSARY
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Downscaling techniques

Figure 1.1
1.2 Relative skill of statistical and dynamical downscaling

Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling

Strengths

Weakness

Table 1.1
 2 OVERVIEW OF SDSM STRUCTURE AND UKSDSM ARCHIVE

1.3 Manual outline

 Quality Control

Transform

Screen Variables

Screen
Variables

Calibrate Model

Figure 2.1

Weather Generator

2.1 Key functions of SDSM

 Summary Statistics Frequency Analysis

Frequency Analysis Compare Results Time Series Analysis

Frequency Analysis

Compare Results
Summary Statistics

Time Series Analysis

Scenario Generator

Weather Generator Figure 2.2

Weather
Generator Scenario Generator

2.2 UKSDSM data archive

2.3 UKSDSM predictors

Missing Data Identifier

 SDSM

Precipitation (mm)
Maximum temperature (ºK)
Minimum temperature (ºK)

Wind direction
Figure 2.3

Table 2.1 Bold

not

source variable
2.4 SDSM file protocols grid box
 3. GETTING STARTED
Start
Programs SDSM

*.dat *.PAR

*.SIM

*.OUT

*.TXT

Table 2.2

Extension Explanation Directory Figure 3.1

Calibrate Weather Generator Start

Calibrate Weather
Generator Generate Scenario Help
Weather Generator
Generate Scenario
Weather
Generator Generate Scenario
Summary Statistics
Frequency Analysis

2.5 Obtaining SDSM predictors online

Figure 3.2
 Settings

3.1 Settings
Settings

Year Length

Standard Start/End Date

Figure 3.3 Settings

Allow Negative Values 3.2 Advanced settings

Settings
Advanced Advanced Settings

Event Threshold
Model Transformation

Missing Data Identifier conditional resampling

Random Number Seed Variance Inflation

Weather Generator Scenario Generator

Default File Directory

Model Transformation

Bias Correction
 Conditional Selection 4. QUALITY CONTROL AND DATA TRANSFORMATION

Optimisation Algorithm
4.1 Quality control
Quality
Control

Settings File

Save

Figure 4.1 Quality Control

Select File Open

Open Check File

Figure 3.4 Advanced Settings

Reset Back
Settings Back
Figure 4.2 Quality check complete

OK
 Reset Select Input File Open

Weather Generator Generate Scenario

Columns in
Input File
Analyse Data Create SIM File

Extract

Transformation

Wrap Lag n
Missing Data Identifier

Backward change

Model Calibration

Lag n
Figure 4.3 Quality Control Wrap
Select Output File Open
Filename
4.2 Data transformation
Save
Transform Data
Transform

Figure 4.4 Transformation complete

OK Transform Data File

Reset

Figure 4.4 Transform Data File

5. SCREENING DOWNSCALING PREDICTOR VARIABLES
Predictor Variables

Screen Variables

Predictor Description

Data Screen Variables

Screen Variables
Settings

Select analysis period

Process

Unconditional Conditional
Significance Level

5.2 Temporal variations in predictor strength

Analyse

Figure 5.1 Screen Variables

5.1 Setup
Screen Variables

Select Predictand File Open

 Figure 5.2 Results

Significance Level

Transform Figure 5.3 Results

Unconditional
Process Data
Annual Select Analysis Period Significance
Level Analyse Screen Variables
5.4 Scatterplot
Scatter

5.3 Correlation matrix

Correlation
Select analysis period

Unconditional Process Conditional

Event Threshold Settings
Scatter Screen Variables
Correlation Screen Variables
 6. MODEL CALIBRATION
Calibrate Model

Advanced Settings

Calibrate Model

Figure 5.4 Scatterplot

Scatterplot

Scatterplot Copy

Figure 6.1 Calibrate Model

6.1 File handling

Select Predictand File

Open
 6.3 Blogsville example

Monthly
Model Type Unconditional Process

Data

Data Period Calibrate Model Advanced Settings

Settings Calibrate

Calibration Results

Output
File Output PAR file

File name Save

Output File

6.2 Model type

Monthly Seasonal Annual Model Type Monthly

Seasonal

Annual

Unconditional
Conditional Process

Advanced Settings

Autoregression

Figure 6.2 Calibration Results

Histogram Categories Back Scatter Plot

Calibrate
 Figure 6.3 Scatter Plot
Figure 6.4 Calibrate Model

Back Calibrate Model

6.4 The *.PAR file

7. WEATHER GENERATOR
Save To .OUT File
Weather Generator Open

Calibrate Model
Weather Generator View Details
Record Start
Weather Generator Record Length

Weather Generator

Synthesis Start
Synthesis Length
Synthesis Start Synthesis Length
Synthesis Start Synthesis Length

Record
Start Record Length

7.2 Ensemble size

Ensemble Size

Synthesize

Figure 7.1 Weather Generator

7.1 File handling

Select Parameter File

Open

Figure 7.2

OK Weather Generator
Select Predictor Directory
7.3 Blogsville example
Weather
Generator

Figure 7.4 Weather Generator

Advanced Settings

Advanced Settings

Figure 7.3
8 ANALYSIS OF OBSERVED AND DOWNSCALED DATA

8.1 Overview Use Ensemble Mean? Ensemble Member

Ensemble Member

Summary Statistics Save Summary File As

Open

Statistics
Summary
Statistics

Figure 8.2 Statistics Selection

Generic Tests

Figure 8.1 Summary Statistics Conditional Tests

Data Source

Select Event Threshold Settings

Input File Open

View Details

Analysis start
date Analysis end date Analysis Period Back Summary Statistics
Standard Start Date Standard End Date Analyse
Settings Use Ensemble Mean? Results
Figure 8.3

Results

Weather Generator

Figure 8.4 Summary Statistics

8.2 Delta Statistics

Delta Stats
 Statistics

8.3 The Statistics

Summary Statistics

Generic Tests

Conditional Tests
9 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 9.2 Diagnostics and plots
Frequency Analysis

Frequency Analysis
Quantile-Quantile (Q-Q) Plot

Settings

Figure 9.1 Frequency Analysis

9.1 Setup

Select
Observed Data
Figure 9.2
Analysis Period Data Period

Settings

Apply threshold? PDF Plot

Settings

PDF Categories
 Figure 9.3 Figure 9.5

9.3 Extreme value analysis

FA Tabular
FA Graphical

Empirical

Figure 9.4

Line Plot
 GEV

Figure 9.6

Figure 9.7 Figure 9.8

Gumbel
Figure 9.9

Stretched Exponential

Figure 9.10
10 SCENARIO GENERATION 10.2 Setup
Scenario Generator
Select Parameter File
Open

Weather Generator
View Details
Weather
Generator Scenario Generator

Scenario Generator
GCM Directory

Transform Data

Weather Generator

Ensemble Size

Select Output File

Open

Generate

OK Generate Scenario

Figure 10.1 Scenario Generator

10.1 Check settings

Figure 10.2
Settings Settings
Year Length Standard Start/End Date

Settings Back Scenario Generator

10.3 Blogsville example (temperature)
Scenario Generator

Results
Summary Statistics

Figure 10.4

Compare Results
Figure 10.3

Summary Statistics

Results
Summary Statistics
Figure 10.5 Figure 10.6

10.4 Blogsville example (precipitation)

Compare Results
 Weather Generator
Scenario Generator

Year Length
Settings
Summary
Statistics Compare Results

Figure 10.9
Figure 10.8
 Figure 10.11

Scenario Generator

Compare Results

Figure 10.10

Figure 10.13
11 GRAPHING MONTHLY STATISTICS

Compare Results
Summary Statistics

Compare Results

Figure 11.2 Line

11.2 Bar chart

Bar Compare Results

Figure 11.1 Compare Results

11.1 Line chart

Select First File Open

Select Second File

Select Statistic
Line

Figure 11.3 Bar

11.3 Customizing charts

Line Bar Settings

Figure 11.5

Figure 11.4 Chart Settings

Make Changes
Apply Ticks
Clear Ticks Show Legend Clear Legend
Back

Colour OK
Font

Figure 11.6

Line Bar
Copy
12 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Clear
12.1 Time series chart
Time Series Analysis Time Period

Raw Data Month Season Annual Water Year

Raw Data
Frequency Analysis Data Start Data End
Time Series Analysis Raw Data Water Year
Season

Month Season Annual Water Year Time Period

Select Statistics
Time
Period Sum

Select Statistics

Sum
Time Period

Sum, Mean, Maximum

Figure 12.1 Time Series Analysis Winter/Summer ratio:

File Selection

File Selection Maximum dry (wet) spell

File Selection
File
Selection Dry (wet) day persistence

Data
Mean dry (wet) spell

Settings Median dry (wet) spell

SD dry (wet) spell

Save Results To
Spell length correlation

Raw Data
Partial Duration Series:
Time Period
Settings

Settings

Percentile Time Period

Standard Precipitation Index

Peaks Over Threshold

Figure 12.2
Nth largest

Largest n day total 12.2 Adjusting chart appearance

%Prec>annual %ile Settings

% All precip from events>long-term %ile

No. of events > long-term %ile

Plot

Plot

Figure 12.3 Time Series Chart Settings

 Largest
n day total

Lines

Make Changes

Legend

Y axis ticks

Make Changes
Clear Y Ticks

Y axis range

Make Changes Figure 12.4

X-axis labels

X-axis labels gap

Make Changes
Clear X Labels

Labels

Make Changes

Chart Copy
13 FINAL CAUTIONARY REMARKS BIBLIOGRAPHY

Technical basis of SDSM

7
not

38

26

17

23

Example applications of SDSM

85

69
 365

58

312

26

319

20 205

330

42

Downscaling overviews and general guidance

42

42

87 84
 376

13

Statistical downscaling methods

82

16 28

21
25

56
20

311

23 28

23

18

NCEP re–analysis and Hadley Centre experiments

18

27
16
13

13 25

77

15
10

26
 13

17 307

20 111

Weather generators
29
11

282
18

36

26
15
13

29
11
17

35
104
22

11
104

23
12

Downscaling comparisons 20,

12
23
 APPENDIX 1: ENHANCEMENTS SINCE SDSM VERSION 3.1
21

Frequency analysis for extremes

104

225

27
Step-wise regression

34
Optimisation Algorithm

10

Screen Variables
62

Calibrate Model
12

Miscellaneous

46 Weather Generator

Scenario Generator

Summary Statistics
Time Series Analysis APPENDIX 2: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Q. Do I need to perform any re–gridding or normalisation of the

predictor variables?
Miscellaneous improvements

Q. Can I use observational data that lie outside the standard period
1961 to 2000?

Missing Data Identifier

Q. How important is the selection of predictor variables?

Screen Variables

Q. How can I determine if I have chosen the correct predictor

variables for the predictands that I require?

Scatterplot

Transform
Q. What does the Event Threshold parameter (in Settings) do? Q. Why do I get slightly different results every time I run the
Event Threshold Weather Generator (with the same inputs)?
Conditional Settings Weather
Generator Scenario Generator
Random Number Seed Settings
Screen
Variables
Calibrate Model Analyse
Data Weather Generator Scenario Ensemble Members
Generator

Q. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using the monthly, Q. Does SDSM produce realistic results for multiple sites? Also, what
seasonal or annual Model Type in Calibrate Model? if I’m interested in preserving relationships between variables?
Model Type Calibrate Model

Q. I am trying to model precipitation and have chosen the fourth root

transformation in Advanced Settings. What else must I do?
Advanced Settings

Conditional Calibrate Model

Q. Is it OK to model precipitation as an unconditional process?

Conditional
Q. I’ve calibrated my model. How do I now produce values of PRCP,
TMAX or TMIN using GCM data?
Calibrate Model

Q. When I use the Weather Generator I get unrealistically large

maximum daily (precipitation) values. What’s going wrong?
Advanced Settings Q. Why do I keep getting an error message when I use GCM data?
Year Length Settings
 GLOSSARY

Q. What’s the best way of handling SDSM files outside the software?

Ensemble Members

Q. I’ve looked at the predictor variable files and the values only Aerosols
range between +/-5. Is there something wrong with the data?

Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC)

Airflow (index)

Anthropogenic
Atmosphere

Autocorrelation

Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)

Black box

Climate

Climate change
Climate model

Climate prediction External forcing

Climate projection
Extreme weather event

Climate scenario General Circulation Model (GCM)

Climate variability

Conditional process
Geopotential height

Deterministic Greenhouse gas

Domain
Grid

Divergence
Meridional flow

Downscaling
NCEP

Dynamical
Normalisation
Emission scenario

Parameter
Ensemble (member)
Partial Duration Series Stochastic

Predictand Transfer function

Predictor

Tropopause
Probability Density Function (PDF)

Uncertainty
Radiative forcing

Unconditional process
Random
Re–gridding
Vorticity

Weather generator
Regional Climate Model

Regression Weather pattern

Relative humidity

Resolution Zonal flow

Scenario

Specific humidity

Station