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Activity: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Introduction
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea
surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the
tropics and subtropics [1]. This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO
cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather
across the United States and other parts of the world. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases
of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral. [2] ENSO is
one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global
atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe.
In this activity, students will compare El Nino/La Nina Anomaly data and compare these
data to hurricane frequency in the Atlantic Basin, as adapted from [3]. There is also a series of data
analysis questions and a summative writing prompt where students will be given information and
need to synthesize a response based on what knowledge they have discovered plotting the data.

Procedures
Part 1: Table 1 on the right Table 1. Positive values indicate warmer the average temperatures while
summarizes the yearly averages negative values represent lower than average temperatures.
of ENO data from the Pacific
Ocean Basin [4]. Plot this data on
the provided ENSO Graph
Worksheet to measure the
pattern of the ENSO anomalies
that have occurred over a 30-year
period. This data will be also be
used later to answer questions in
the second part of activity which
will involve comparing your
graph to that of hurricane
frequency to determine if any
patterns exist.
Graph the data in Table 1
on your ENSO Graph
Worksheet. There are two Y-
axes on this graph. The left y-
axis is for ENSO Anomaly data
and the right y-axis will be used to plot the frequency of hurricane data. After plotting connect
your data points. Use Blue Colored Pencil/Pen to connect the data points. Then, write a brief
analysis of your data before moving on to the second part of the activity. Answer the questions
indicated in the Questions part.

Part 2: Table 1 below summarizes the frequency of hurricane for a 30-year period [5]. Plot
hurricane frequency on the same graph as the ENSO Anomaly Data. BE SURE TO USE THE
PROPER SCALE (double Y-Axis). Connect the hurricane frequency data points with RED PEN.
Compare your two sets of data: ENSO Anomaly Data and the Hurricane Frequency Data to answer
the questions indicated in the Questions part.
Part III: Now, assume the role of the Governor of Florida. An email is sent to you from a
meteorologist with the future breaking anomaly data (see attachment). Respond to the email to
address any concerns that are raised.

Table 2. Frequency of hurricane that happened from 1983 to 2012 in the Atlantic Basin.

Questions
Part 1:
1. Describe any patterns observed in the data set after you graphed it.
2. What years had the longest period of average El Nino conditions before changing to average
period of La Nina conditions? (Note: Time periods of El Nino Periods are categorized by
positive values and La Nina Periods are categorized by negative values on your graph.)
3. What years had the longest period average La Nina conditions before changing to average
period of El Nino conditions?
4. Were there any multiple years of successive positive or negative values?
Part 2:
5. When comparing the two graphs, do you see any patterns between the frequency of storms and
EL Nino or La Nina Conditions? (i.e. when ENSO Anomaly data goes up, what happens to
hurricane and tropical storm frequency?)
6. Look at your data for 1990 to 1995; what relationship do you see in these data?
7. Are there areas on the graph that don’t follow pattern of El Nino Conditions with fewer hurricanes?
8. What are some of the limitations of making generalizations/predictions based on this data set?

References:
[1] Wikipedia contributors. (2019, January 10). El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In Wikipedia, The
Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=El_Ni%C3
%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation&oldid=877721294.
[2] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (n.d.). What is El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)? Retrieved from https://www.weather.gov/mhx/ensowhat.
[3] DeSousa, D.W. (n.d.). cENSO: Friend or Foe? Retrieved from http://www.cpalms.org/Public/
PreviewResourceLesson/Preview/765055.
[5] Climate Prediction Center Internet Team. (2019, January 3). Cold & Warm Episodes by
Season. Retrieved from http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff
/ONI_v5 .php.
[5] National Hurricane Center. (2017). Past Track Seasonal Maps. Retrieved from https://www.
nhc.noaa.gov/data/#tracks_all.
Name: ______________________________________ Section: __________________ Date: ________________ Score: ________
Part 1:
1. Describe any patterns observed in the data set after you graphed it.
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2. What years had the longest period of average El Nino conditions before changing to average period of La Nina
conditions?
________________________________________________________________________________________
3. What years had the longest period average La Nina conditions before changing to average period of El Nino
conditions?
________________________________________________________________________________________
4. Were there any multiple years of successive positive or negative values?
________________________________________________________________________________________

Part 2:
5. When comparing the two graphs, do you see any patterns between the frequency of storms and EL Nino or La
Nina Conditions? (i.e. when ENSO Anomaly data goes up, what happens to hurricane and tropical storm
frequency?)
________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________
6. Look at your data for 1990 to 1995; what relationship do you see in these data?
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7. Are there areas on the graph that don’t follow pattern of El Nino Conditions with fewer hurricanes?
________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________
8. What are some of the limitations of making generalizations/predictions based on this data set?
_______________________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________

Part 3:

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