Krzys’ Ostaszewski: http://www.math.ilstu.

edu/krzysio/
Author of the “Been There Done That!” manual for Course P/1: http://smartURL.it/krzysioP,
Course P/1 online seminar: http://smartURL.it/onlineactuary
Questions? E-mail: krzysio@krzysio.net

May 1983 Course 110 Examination, Problem No. 44, also Dr. Ostaszewski’s online
exercise posted November 18, 2006
If a fair coin is tossed repeatedly, what is the probability that the third head occurs on the
n-th toss?
n +1
⎛ 1⎞
A. ( n − 1) ⋅ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
n +1
⎛ 1⎞
B. ( n − 1) ⋅ ( n − 2 ) ⋅ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
n
⎛ 1⎞
C. ( n − 1) ⋅ ( n − 2 ) ⋅ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
n
⎛ 1⎞
D. ( n − 1) ⋅ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
n +1
⎛ n⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞
E. ⎜ ⎟ ⋅ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 3⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠

Solution.
Probability that the third head occurs on the n-th toss equals the probability that exactly 2
heads occur in the first n − 1 tosses, and then the n-th toss is a head. Since all tosses are
independent, and the first n − 1 tosses form n − 1 Bernoulli trials in which we want 2
“successes” of getting heads, the probability we are searching for is
⎛ n − 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ 2 ⎛ 1 ⎞ n−1−2 1 ( n − 1) ⋅ ( n − 2 ) ⎛ 1 ⎞
n
⎛ 1⎞
⋅ ⎜ ⎟ = ( n − 1) ⋅ ( n − 2 ) ⋅ ⎜ ⎟ .
n+1

⎜⎝ 2 ⎟⎠ ⋅ ⎜⎝ 2 ⎟⎠ ⋅ ⎜⎝ 2 ⎟⎠ ⋅
2
=
2 ⎝ 2⎠ ⎝ 2⎠
 Third head 
n−1 independent identically distributed on n−th toss
Bernoulli Trials, with 2 successes (heads)

That is answer B. Or you can also solve this problem by asking yourself these two
questions:
• What is the total number of possible outcomes? It is 2 n (n tosses, each with 2 possible
outcomes).
• What is the total number of favorable outcomes? It is equal to the number of possible
ways to get the third head on the n-th toss, which is the number of ways to put two heads
⎛ n −1 ⎞
among the first n – 1 tosses, i.e., ⎜ , with all remaining spots taken by tails, and
⎝ 2 ⎟⎠
the last spot taken by head (which can be done only one way, so it does not affect the
count).
This gives the probability sought as
 ⎛ n −1 ⎞
⋅1
Number of favorable outcomes ⎜⎝ 2 ⎟⎠
n+1
⎛ 1⎞
= = ( n − 1) ⋅ ( n − 2 ) ⋅ ⎜ ⎟ .
Total number of outcomes 2n ⎝ 2⎠
Of course, that is the same answer.
Answer B.

© Copyright 2006 by Krzysztof Ostaszewski.

All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without express written
permission from the author is strictly prohibited.
Exercises from the past actuarial examinations are copyrighted by the Society of
Actuaries and/or Casualty Actuarial Society and are used here with permission.