Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
AND ESTONIA
2018
CONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
The domestic political situation in Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
The Russian economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
The effects of the sanctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
The Russian military . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Russian foreign policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Outlook for the Minsk Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Rosneft and Gazprom as the tools of Russian
foreign policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Relations between Belarus and Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Intelligence from the territory – threat to foreign nationals in Russia . 35
The FIFA World Cup in Russia – Putin’s PR project . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Influence operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Information warfare units targeting NATO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Kremlin’s use of misrepresentation of historical events
in influence operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Cyber threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Terrorism in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
North Korea’s weapons programme continues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s mission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
2 INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
I
am pleased to present the Estonian
Foreign Intelligence Service’s third
public report, in which we describe
the world security environment surroun-
ding Estonia.
In early 2018, the big question pertaining Estonian security does not exist in a
to Russia is what will happen after its vacuum; our security and well-being
March presidential elections. The world is depend on that of our friends, and their
witnessing a carefully choreographed piece vulnerabilities are our vulnerabilities. That
of theatre that attempts to leave the im- is why our report also covers the issue of
pression of free elections. But behind the terrorism. Although the threat of terror-
scenes, a cynical plan is being executed to ism is low in Estonia, it is high in Europe
ensure Putin and his inner circle retain their as a whole, and poses a threat to Estonian
grip on power for yet another term. In the citizens travelling abroad.
report, we detail how complicated this task
An acute problem that emerged in 2017
is given Russia’s declining socioeconomic
was the threat from North Korea, which
indicators and gathering mood of protest.
could lead to noteworthy developments
Our aim is to cover the events in Russia this year. In spite of the fact that the
that tend all too often to reach the public in Korean peninsula is geographically far
distorted or incomplete fashion. The Putin from us, increased tensions in that region
regime is masterful at fostering a false also impact our security. We are therefore
image and creating deceptions. A vivid keeping a close eye on the situation there
example of the above is Zapad-2017, the and also in other distant conflict zones.
major military exercise held last autumn.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service
For the benefit of the entire internation-
recently marked its 25th anniversary. Our
al community and the Russian public, it
mission continues to be the same – to
was painted as a minor counterterrorism
protect the Estonian state from external
exercise held in Belarus, but actually this
security threats by providing trustworthy
was but a disguise for large-scale manoeu-
intelligence for decision-makers. Our task
vres that were a test run for all stages of a
is to ensure that when Estonian leaders
full-scale war on NATO. Although this was
gather to make key decisions from the
not the first time this scenario had been
standpoint of security, they know more
rehearsed, a greater level of concealment
about the topic than what is available over
could be detected on this occasion. Unfor-
public channels.
tunately, disinformation and half-truths
also showed up in Western coverage of the Just as important is the realization that
exercise. we – the government, society and the
citizens – create our own security space
Although Russia conducts large-scale every day. The well-known slogan to
military exercises, our report states clearly: “think globally, act locally” is also valid
the threat of a direct military attack on when it comes to understanding security
NATO member states in 2018 is low. We in the Baltic Sea region in 2018.
will discuss this matter in more detail in the
chapter on the Russian military. Bonne lecture!
4 T H E D O M E S T I C P O L I T I C A L S I T U AT I O N I N R U S S I A
T
he main goal for Putin and though Russia’s current political leaders
the political ruling clique is have never shied away from using
to stay in power. In the short various administrative means for influ-
term, this means that the encing election results, such attempts
2018 presidential elections have to be will run significant risks on a backdrop
carried out smoothly. The unfavourable of general discontent. The ruling elite
domestic political situation will give the remember 2011, when State Duma
Kremlin less manoeuvring room. election fraud was the last straw that
led to resentment brimming over into
As regards the re-election of Putin, the protests among the middle class in the
domestic political realities in 2018 are largest cities. The elite want to avoid a
now less in his favour than ever before repeat of such a scenario at all costs.
– dissatisfaction with the actions of the But eliminating the root causes of the
political elite and the situation in the dissatisfaction – political and economic
country has grown significantly. Political stagnation – is impossible as long as
activism is simultaneously on the rise, the system continues to be tilted in the
especially among young people. Even ruling clique’s interests.
T H E D O M E S T I C P O L I T I C A L S I T U AT I O N I N R U S S I A 5
SITUATION IN RUSSIA
THE DOMESTIC ruling elite. With the personal standard
POLITICAL REALITY of living declining, the lavish lifestyle
of senior officials and corruption cases
The domestic political situation in caused greater resentment. Moreover,
Russia in 2018 will also be character- as the recession dragged on, there was
ized by growing discontent among increasing lack of confidence in the
the population. The reasons for the capability of the central government,
broader dissatisfaction of its citizens all the more since top Russian leaders
come down to the political and eco- did not go beyond well-worn clichés in
nomic impasses, either separately or addressing solutions to the country’s
in combination. The first serious signs problems. As a result, many citizens
of growing discontent emerged in the have long since started to doubt
second half of 2015, when the number whether their leaders’ prescriptions are
of protests increased due to the coun- feasible. A certain segment of society
try’s economic difficulties. During that – above all, the younger generations
time, public accusations against the – are bothered by the political system
Kremlin and Putin were rare, and the itself; the stagnated, kleptocratic sys-
direct triggers for the protests and the tem is seen as the main obstacle to the
slogans were largely apolitical. But the country’s development, and is seen as
scope of political demonstrations had having a negative impact on their future
grown significantly by spring 2017. prospects.
Russia’s economic downturn
affected how society react-
ed to the actions of the
Direct conversations
with young Russians
where every detail is
stage-managed play
an important role in
propaganda youth
outreach, leaving younger
audiences in particular
with the impression of an
inert and old-fashioned
apparatus. Such inhibited
formats do not seem to
be an effective channel
for youth-oriented
propaganda. Pictured: one
such meeting at the Sirius
Centre in Sochi.
SO URCE: AP/SCANP I X
T H E D O M E S T I C P O L I T I C A L S I T U AT I O N I N R U S S I A 9
100 %
80 %
60 %
40 %
20 %
0%
Almost 3-5 days 1-2 days Less than I do not I do not
every day a week a week once a week watch TV own a TV
Age 18-30 years 31-45 years 46-60 years Older than 60 years
SOURCE :
Ф О М Н И Б У С 2 0 17
media and instant messenger services In addition, tried and tested tactics
to identify themselves using a person- are used to apply pressure on more
al mobile phone number. This change, active critics of the government –
it is hoped, will foil the anonymity unfounded accusations and searches
of protest organizers. It is not likely of organizations’ offices and activists’
that the measures to curb Internet homes, organized hooliganism against
freedom will succeed in being fully persons and their property, and
implemented. pressuring people through employers
and education institutions. Russia
10 T H E D O M E S T I C P O L I T I C A L S I T U AT I O N I N R U S S I A
T
he current function-
ing of the Russian
economy can no longer
guarantee the well-being
of society. Fundamental reforms are
needed, but it is unlikely they will be un-
The primary condition for surviving and
dertaken, as this would be contrary to
being successful in Russia’s business
the interests of the ruling elite. To dis-
world is not having competitive goods
tract from the real economic problems
and services, but a patron who is as
and mislead the Russian public and the
high as possible in the power hierarchy.
West, the Kremlin is maintaining the
In more profitable sectors, enterprise
appearance of public debate on possible
is in the hands of the ruling elite or
reform and liberalization of the Russian
closely connected circles, and there is
economy.
no actual competition. Such a system
President Vladimir Putin and his inner is favoured by a biased judicial system
circle continue to use state power to that is controlled by the ruling elite, in
maximize their personal influence which no independent entrepreneur can
and to provide for their own financial expect the transparent administration
security. The silencing of critics and of justice. Providing closely connected
pressure on civil society also means the businesses with profitable govern-
creation of an environment extremely ment contracts has become so much
unfavourable to economic development. the norm that the Russian press uses
T H E R U S S I A N E CO N O M Y 13
One indicator characterizing a country’s Only a very small share of these house-
social landscape is the compulsory holds earns the arithmetic mean in-
costs of a family with two children. come, and the absolute majority has to
This type of household accounts for subsist at very low income levels. Only a
the greatest share of the population small proportion of Russian inhabitants
and is a good basis for generalization. enjoy a standard of living equivalent to
Monetary value shows the amount that the average of Western countries.
should cover monthly expenses, such
The social stratification also has a
as clothing, footwear, transport, durable
regional dimension. A large part of
goods, and leisure activities.
the well-being for Russian citizens is
Looking back on Putin’s third term defined by where they live. It is often
in office, 2012–17, we see that this possible for Russian inhabitants to
indicator has dropped about 15 percent upgrade their standard of living just by
since 2011. Even more important than moving from rural areas to cities, and
the decrease is that social stratification from the cities to foreign countries. The
has increased. realization that part of their problem is
rooted in where they live makes Russian
citizens less enterprising and reduces
the regional tax base even further.
and restructuring the economy would collapse. Whether that indeed happens
weaken the positions of the elite and depends more on the Kremlin’s ability
the economic circles associated with to divert the attention of the masses
them. Continuing on the same eco- than on economic measures.
nomic policy course could end in social
16 T H E R U S S I A N E CO N O M Y
THE RUSSIAN
MILITARY
The only existential threat to the sovereignty
of Estonia and other Baltic Sea states emanates
from Russia. However, the threat of a direct Russian
military attack on NATO member states in 2018 is low.
A
s long as Russia is ruled against Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and
by an authoritarian regime Poland. In the course of the exercise,
whose top priority is to Russian armed forces underwent all
exercise political dominance phases of an all-out war: Russia’s
over its neighbours, Russia will continue military intervention in response to a
using military pressure against Esto- “colour revolution” in Belarus, escala-
nia, Latvia and Lithuania. Considering tion into a conventional war with NATO,
that authoritarian regimes tend to see and finally, to nuclear war.
threats where none exist, it is not com-
Russia’s general behaviour in relation to
pletely beyond the realm of possibility
military exercises shows that the coun-
that the Russian leadership will make
try’s leadership does not care about
a strategic miscalculation, believing
the fundamental values of international
that NATO’s collective defence is not
treaties, including the principles of
effective.
building transparency and trust. What
Russian military planners do not view was, according to the official notice,
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania separate- a six-day exercise actually lasted six
ly; they approach Europe and NATO as weeks. Russia’s official media coverage
a whole. In Russia’s latest major military significantly distorted the size of the
exercise Zapad-2017, Russian armed exercise as well: publicly, the exercise
forces practiced a full-scale war with area was declared as Belarus and Ka-
NATO in Europe. According to the sce- liningrad, but actually the exercise was
nario, the conflict started in Belarus. As held all over western Russia, from the
usual, one of the main elements of the Barents Sea to the border of Ukraine.
military exercise simulated an offensive Furthermore, officially it was declared
T H E R U S S I A N M I L I TA RY 19
that 12,700 troops took part but actual- systems as well as the establishment
ly there were more than 100,000. of new units and commands. The same
trend continued in 2017. The first group
The nature of the exercise was nothing
of new Su-30SM fighters was de-
new: anti-NATO scenarios have been
ployed in the Kaliningrad Oblast. In the
used in most Russian armed forces
Western Military District, new divisions
exercises, including all of the previous
are formed and infrastructure is built.
Zapad exercises. Although the plans
In 2018, the Baltic Fleet will get its first
and scenarios have remained the same,
two Karakurt-class missile corvettes.
the Russian armed forces are able
The importance of these ships lies
to practice the military operations in
above all in their weapons systems. The
greater detail with each exercise cycle
new Kalibr cruise missiles, which can
– a number of the elements previously
attack land targets within 2500 km, will
simulated on a map are now played out
be part of the ships’ arsenal. In 2018,
in the field.
the Russian armed forces will complete
In 2018, the Russian armed forces’ an- the rearmament of the Kaliningrad mis-
nual exercise will be held in the Far East, sile brigade with the Iskander missile
under the name of Vostok-2018. The
scenario will involve a regional conflict
in the Pacific Ocean region. We know
from previous years that somewhat
paradoxically, the Vostok exercises are
also targeted mainly against a perceived
threat from the United States.
system. This system can be used to The weaknesses of the Russian armed
attack strategic targets within a radius forces must also be taken into account
of 500 km. when assessing Russia’s military
capability. Neglect, corruption and theft
In 2018, the formation of a National
are still prevalent in the Russian armed
Guard based on internal forces and
forces. Although the number of con-
Ministry of the Interior institutions and
tracted military servicemen is growing
units – a process started in 2016 – will
due to economic difficulties, the num-
be completed. In the final phase of the
ber of disciplinary violations has also
reform, the OMON and SOBR special
increased in the past year, suggesting
police units will be integrated complete-
low morale among the newly enlisted.
ly into the National Guard’s paramilitary
With economic problems deepening
structure, and the National Guard will
and the cuts and inflation spreading
thereafter be prepared to fulfil all of its
into the armed forces budget, discipli-
domestic security and national defence
nary problems and tensions are likely to
functions. In connection with this year’s
rise in the future as well. Staff turnover
presidential elections and the football
is still high among younger officers.
championship in Russia, the National
For young officers, the Russian armed
Guard will be put to the test, as the
forces provide limited decision-making
post-reform security services must en-
freedom, discourage their initiative,
sure that the elections proceed without
and assign menial service duties – all
major protests and unrest.
T H E R U S S I A N M I L I TA RY 21
of which lower morale. Also, the lack 2017 that Russia had won the Syrian
of qualified junior specialists remains a war and was withdrawing its troops.
problem. These shortcomings will affect At the same time, in 2018 Russia is
the military readiness of all combat likely looking for ways to get involved in
units. other conflict areas in the Middle East
and Africa. The main purpose of such
The Russian military operation in Syria
activity is to irritate the West, and not
has essentially exhausted itself after
necessarily contribute to the resolution
achieving its three primary goals. In
of these conflicts.
terms of publicity, Russia has managed
to abundantly but not convincingly Russia’s war against Ukraine will con-
promote itself as a participant in solv- tinue in 2018. Russia’s goal is to main-
ing the world’s problems and a force tain a constant level of military activity
against terrorism. Russia has been able in eastern Ukraine and, through that,
to secure the right to use the port of keep the internal situation in Ukraine
Tartus, and has in essence used Syria as unstable.
a testing range for its weapon systems.
The likelihood of Russia’s covert or
Further involvement in the conflict
overt military intervention in countries
would expose inherent weaknesses
where it claims to have privileged inter-
in Russia’s military and diplomatic
ests, such as Belarus, Moldova or Ka-
capabilities. These factors influenced
zakhstan, is medium. Previous military
Russia’s announcement in December
22 T H E R U S S I A N M I L I TA RY
SO URCE:
R EUT ERS/SCANP I X
Denmark’s Great Belt Fixed Link crossing.
WITH THE ZAPAD EXERCISE, RUSSIA IGNORED THE LETTER AND SPIRIT
OF THE VIENNA DOCUMENT AGREEMENT.
Russia did not notify Zapad- Russia did not invite A couple of weeks before
2017 to other states party to observers from other OSCE Zapad-2017’s official phase, the
the Vienna Document, even countries to Zapad-2017, Russian armed forces organised a
though the number of military although it should have covert large-scale snap exercise, in-
personnel (over 20,000 land done so. It invited only the volving more than 100,000 military
and airborne forces) exceeded defence attaches residing personnel. Paragraphs 41 and 41.1
the notification threshold. in Russia as “guests” on of the Vienna Document oblige to
Paragraphs 38 and 40.1.1 of visiting day. Paragraph 47.4 notify other countries of the start
the Vienna Document oblige of the Vienna Document of a snap exercise. Such extensive
a country to provide 42 days obliges a country to invite snap exercises are held an average
advance notice of an exercise observers to exercises of five times per year by the Russian
involving at least 9,000 mili- involving at least 13,000 armed forces. In paragraph 67.1 of
tary personnel. military personnel. the Vienna Document OSCE coun-
tries pledged to hold a maximum
of one exercise involving at least
40,000 personnel every three years.
Belarus, a participant of Za-
pad-2017, was not in violation
of the provisions of the Vienna
Document and was open to
neighbouring countries and the
international community.
24 R U S S I A N FO R E I G N P O L I C Y
RUSSIAN
FOREIGN POLICY
Russian foreign policy and security
policy is based on an adversarial
stance toward the United States and
the West in general. The main goal of
the Putin regime is to end its political
isolation and to restore its position
on the world arena.
R
ussian foreign policy be- sphere of influence in its neighbour-
haviour is opportunistic. To hood, where its aim is to slow down the
achieve its goals, Russia pace of democratization and any sort
combines political, diplo- of Western integration. Russia does not
matic, economic and military means in draw the line there, and also meddles
various global or regional conflicts. In in politics in more distant countries. Its
this manner, the regime tries to leave an so-called fight against terrorism is one
impression that it plays an important of the most transparent foreign policy
role in international politics and that pretexts used in recent years to satisfy
without President Vladimir Putin it is its ambition of being a superpower in
not possible to resolve global problems. more distant regions. Russia uses the
The Kremlin exploits and, if necessary, counterterrorism narrative to strength-
leverages conflicts around the world to en its foreign policy position and to
increase its influence in various regions establish relations on a political and
and undermine international processes security institutional level. While Russia
and formats involving the West. seeks to show its readiness for inter-
national cooperation by invoking the
A central role in Russia’s superpower
fight against terrorism, this is a front
ambitions is played by maintaining its
for acting contrarily to the West, often
RU SS I AN FOR E I G N POL I CY 25
Russia has only partially achieved its to a greater extent while Russia feigns
desired goals in its aggression against commitment to the Minsk accords and
Ukraine. Crimea is occupied, the war in diplomatic solutions. These mutually
eastern Ukraine continues to destabilize exclusive trends gained particular mo-
European security, and Ukrainian socie- mentum in 2017.
ty and economy are still vulnerable. But
In a situation where Russia’s opposition
Russia’s main goal – to draw Ukraine
to the West and the ever-deepening
into its sphere of influence – is slipping
isolation could become permanent,
away irreversibly. The Minsk Agree-
the Kremlin is attempting to save face.
ments, which brought the worst of the
The upcoming presidential elections in
fighting to a halt in eastern Ukraine,
Russia are also forcing Vladimir Putin
coupled with Ukrainian resistance and
to propose actions that have at least
the unanimous pressure from the West,
the semblance of being peace-oriented.
has kept the fighting to the level of
In September 2017, Russia’s president
local skirmishes, which no longer poses
made a proposal to the UN to send an
an existential threat to Ukraine. The
armed mission to eastern Ukraine to
fighting nevertheless has had a heavy
provide protection to the OSCE special
human toll. Russia seems unwilling to
observer mission operating there. This
break it off, but rather uses the violence
idea was meant to take the initiative
as an instrument to achieve the control
out of Ukraine’s hands, as the Ukrainian
of Kyiv it yearns for.
president had announced a plan prior
It has been more than three years since to the UN General Assembly meeting
the Minsk agreements were signed. to demand UN peacekeepers be sent to
Russia has had many opportunities to the area. Russia’s proposal was noth-
bring the conflict to a peaceful solution, ing but an attempt to defer a solution
if it wanted to. Instead of cutting off its to the conflict burdening Ukraine. At a
proxies in eastern Ukraine and no longer time when the international community
equipping and directing the militants, is waiting for true steps to be taken to
the Russian administration is playing a resolve the bloody conflict, Russia is only
two-faced game. The occupied eastern suggesting solutions that would only
Ukrainian areas are being integrated make the conflict more entrenched. Rus-
with the Russian economy and society sia apparently sees this as a sustainable
RU SS I AN FOR E I G N POL I CY 29
once again confirmed what he him- resentation” in Italy was joined by centres
self, his diplomats and officials have in Greece and France. The latter one is
schizophrenically persisted in denying led by a failed and convicted municipal
for many years – Russia controls the politician. In April 2017, the paramilitary
occupied areas of eastern Ukraine representation of the Donetsk People’s
because it has a specific strategy for Republic in Ostrava, Czech Republic
doing so. Yet it is evident that Russia’s (pictured), was closed by court ruling and
assessment of the situation – which in December, Russian agent of influence
was the grounds for its aggression Johan Bäckman, who had previously
against Ukraine – was not even close to claimed to represent the Donbas in
reality. Considering Russia’s potential Finland, announced a new representation
from the standpoint of security, this had been opened in Helsinki. Such groups
conveys a negative message, at least in – although marginal – spread disinforma-
Russia’s neighbourhood. tion, originating from the Kremlin via the
“Donetsk foreign ministry”, aimed against
Examples of manipulations against the
Ukraine and the West. As the Donbas
West orchestrated by Russia can also
separatists’ attempts to imitate diploma-
be seen in the phantom representations
cy in the West have proved unrealistic,
of the eastern Ukrainian separatists – in
Russian agents attempt to register the
particular the Donetsk People’s Re-
representations or NGOs and associate
public – in Europe. In 2017, the “rep-
them with existing associations.
RU SS I AN FOR E I G N POL I CY 31
General economic constraints will keep In Serbia, Gazprom uses the same
Russia’s foreign policy influence in influence means that it did in Ukraine:
check in 2018 as well. The Kremlin has a long-term supply contract has been
little money to support governments signed with a monopoly, Srbijagas. This
of Moscow’s liking and thus it will rely enterprise is characterized by corrupt
on the large state-owned corporations schemes, politicians’ participation in
Rosneft and Gazprom. company management and opaque
transactions. Through Gazprom, Russia
This is risky business – for instance,
establishes relationships that make CIS
Rosneft’s loans and agreements in
countries dependent on Russia. For ex-
Venezuela (totalling 6,7 billion EUR)
ample, the price of the natural gas sold
may end up making a loss if the Ven-
to Belarus and Kyrgyzstan is decided by
ezuelan government continues on the
the Kremlin, like investments into the
same economic policy course, which
gasification of Kyrgyzstan. The ex-
has made what was once the wealthiest
penses from this type of foreign policy
country in South America insolvent.
instrument are borne by Gazprom.
Rosneft’s investments (totalling 1,2
The risks assumed by Rosneft and Gaz-
billion EUR) in Iraqi Kurdistan, the inde-
prom in the state’s foreign policy inter-
pendence referendum of which was not
ests are compensated by the risk-free
recognized by the Iraqi central govern-
redistribution of oil and gas exploration
ment, are also in doubt. Baghdad has
sites in Russia.
restored control over the oil fields and
has contested the Rosneft deal with the
Kurds.
32 R E L AT I O N S B E T W E E N B E L A R U S A N D R U S S I A
RELATIONS
BETWEEN
BELARUS AND
RUSSIA
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s
autonomy is dwindling, and although
Belarus is stable on the surface,
uncertainty is growing in the country.
A
bove all, the country’s Russian control over Belarusian
uncertainty is based on its military capabilities is increasing; the
almost full dependence on legal framework is being supplement-
Russia. Most of the crude ed to bring the armed forces of both
oil imported from Russia is exported countries under a joint command in the
from Belarus as refined oil products. case of a threat, and there is deepen-
This accounts for almost a third of the ing harmonization of both countries’
budget revenue of Belarus. The 1,6 armed forces and training of units
billion EUR loan allocated by Russia at the tactical level, right up to the
in 2016–18 is essential for refinancing creation of mixed units. The Belarusian
past loans taken by Belarus. Belarus’s armed forces are also equipped with
economic dependence gives Russia Russian military equipment, making
leverage it can use if necessary to force Belarus technologically and financial-
Belarus to take decisions not benefit- ly dependent on Russia for decades
ting Minsk’s development. For example, to come. The leaders of Belarus are
if oil exports using Latvian and Lithu- interested in inexpensive solutions for
anian ports are re-routed to Russian maintaining their armed forces while
ports, Russia will assume direct control Russia’s goal in this cooperation is to
over Belarus’s petroleum exports. strip the Belarusian armed forces of
R E L AT I O N S B E T W E E N B E L A R U S A N D R U S S I A 33
SO URCE:
TASS/SCA NP I X
its control over Belarusian military capabilities.
Sharoiko and the businessman Alek- After the 2018 presidential election,
sandr Skriba are a sign of the country’s Russia will continue applying pressure
efforts to please Russia in sowing and increasing control over the Bela-
tensions in relations with Ukraine. rusian economy, politics, military and
social life, as the complicated situation
The common visa space agreement be-
in the Belarus economy will increase
tween Belarus and Russia means that
internal discontent and instability. Once
visa policy is essentially placed under
again, the sale of strategic Belarusian
Russian control. Belarus will essentially
companies to Russia and the establish-
lose its right to decide on who enters
ment of a Russian military base on Be-
the country – yet another step in the
larusian territory will be on the agenda.
erosion of sovereignty. Russia’s decision
Street protests would be sparked more
to set up temporary border checkpoints
by a worsening socioeconomic situation
on the Belarus-Russia border in spring
than calls from the fragmented oppo-
2018 and intensify checks on the roads
sition.
and railways should also be seen as
pressure on Belarus. Should the visa The demise of the sovereignty of
issue be resolved, some other topic Belarus would reinforce Russia’s sphere
would come up immediately, such as of influence in the proximity of Central
infiltration of terrorists from Belarus Europe.
to Russia or growing cross-border
smuggling, which would be prevented
by more effective border controls.
I N T E L L I G E N C E F R O M T H E T E R R I T O RY – T H R E AT T O F O R E I G N N AT I O N A L S I N R U S S I A 35
INTELLIGENCE FROM
THE TERRITORY –
THREAT TO FOREIGN
NATIONALS IN RUSSIA
Russia’s intelligence services systematically look for ways
of recruiting foreigners on Russian territory and gathering
information on other countries. This entails certain risks
for people travelling to Russia.
A
ccording to its own ter- ering intelligence from the territory”.
minology, Russia’s intel- That means information about foreign
ligence services abroad countries is not gathered on their own
gather information mainly territory but on Russian soil. These
through what is known as “legal Russian officers do not travel abroad
residency” and “illegal residency”. In but rather meet and recruit foreign
the former case, intelligence officers nationals in Russia. It is substantially
act as diplomats representing their cheaper, safer and more effective as
homeland and they are protected by Russian intelligence officers can work in
the Vienna Convention. In the second their home country without fear of be-
case, officers act under the cover of ing apprehended, and it is much harder
a businessman, researcher, journalist for foreign counterintelligence to keep
or other profession. Such individuals track of such activities.
do not enjoy diplomatic immunity and
As the threats from gathering intel-
will be punished if caught. Both legal
ligence from the territory faced by
and illegal intelligence activity abroad
foreign nationals in Russia tend to be
is risky and resource intensive.
underestimated, we deem it necessary
As in the Soviet era, another intelligence to cover the topic in our threat assess-
collection method remains in the cur- ment in greater detail.
rent Russian Federation namely “gath-
36 I N T E L L I G E N C E F R O M T H E T E R R I T O RY – T H R E AT T O F O R E I G N N AT I O N A L S I N R U S S I A
The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation’s (SVR) Directorate for
gathering information, which has an organizing and coordinating role, in coopera-
tion with other units in the SVR headquarters;
FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE
SERVICE
The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation’s (FSB) regional direc-
torates’ intelligence departments in Russian federal subjects (oblasts, krais and
republics), in cooperation with other FSB units;
FEDERAL SECURITY
SERVICE
The task of the Russian special services festivals and sports competitions –
is to determine which of the foreigners play an important role in intelligence
visiting Russia could have access to collection. Russia typically spares no
political, economic and military informa- expense in organizing such events that
tion of interest to the services, establish often attract the elite from all over the
contact with them (usually by using world. This creates a favourable oppor-
some cover) and if suitable, recruit tunity for Russian special services to
them. Alongside foreigners, Russian find targets for human intelligence and
citizens are also recruited if they have a collect information.
possibility of collecting intelligence from
As visitors to Russia must first fill in a
abroad or assisting Russian intelligence
visa application form and, for events,
in recruitment of foreigners. In addition
usually a participant registration form,
to collecting intelligence, the task of in-
they supply the organizers and Russian
dividuals, such as journalists and politi-
special services with the information
cians, who are recruited by this method
needed to make a preliminary selection
is spreading (dis)information through
of targets. Russian special services can
their acquaintances and social media to
also, through the assistance of officers
support Russia’s foreign policy course
employed under cover in various
and discredit its global adversaries.
institutions or their co-optees, invite
Major international events taking place persons of interest to Russia. Visitors
in Russia – political and economic from abroad usually come to such
forums, scientific conferences, youth events without family members, live in
38 I N T E L L I G E N C E F R O M T H E T E R R I T O RY – T H R E AT T O F O R E I G N N AT I O N A L S I N R U S S I A
hotels and feel less inhibited outside It should be emphasized that RT is not
official events, which makes it easier conducted only in Moscow, although
for special services to establish contact this is where the concentration of for-
and access their personal items such eigners and special service personnel
as telephones and computers. Unsus- is highest, but also in Russia’s regions.
pecting visitors may not have a clue of This is also true for intelligence oper-
what is going on around them in the ations at international events, which
preliminary phase of an intelligence often take place in other large Rus-
operation. sian cities or places selected for that
purpose.
In the case of important international
events taking place in Russia, the FSB The Russian Federation’s governing
sets up an operational staff that can institutions and other institutions that
involve several thousand operational interact with foreigners employ many
personnel from intelligence, coun- “former” KGB officers who worked in
terintelligence, counterterrorism and foreign intelligence in the First Main
technical support (signals intelligence, Directorate or its successor, the SVR.
which involves wiretapping and covert Although it is publicly claimed that
surveillance). Although in the current these officers have retired from the
tense international security situation, intelligence service, it is suspicious that
the importance of counterterrorism they still work in positions that provide
and event security should not be taken direct access to foreigners or hold
lightly, Russia’s special services are senior positions in such institutions.
devoting just as much attention to col- In addition to those whose intelligence
lecting intelligence from foreign visitors career in the KGB’s First Main Direc-
as they do to security. torate or the SVR is listed on their
SO URCE:
TASS/SCA NP I X
where international business meets Russian intelligence.
public CVs or has been exposed by the and any individuals who seek to strike
intelligence agencies of other coun- up an acquaintance. Visitors should
tries, there are also younger and lower pay close attention to their personal
ranking “officials” who have been de- belongings, especially communication
tected as intelligence officers by means devices and computers. We would
of intelligence collection. also like to stress that unfortunately
intelligence threats present in Russia
The purpose of this chapter is not to
are more nuanced, and the details
discourage foreign readers from visit-
of which cannot be disclosed to the
ing Russia or to make them paranoid
general public. Should anyone who has
while they are in Russia. However, vis-
visited Russia suspect that they have
iting Russia does run certain risks and
been approached by the Russian intel-
people involved in political, social and
ligence services, they should contact
business circles in particular should
the security services of their respective
critically analyse any incidents that
countries.
may occur during their stay in Russia
40 I N T E L L I G E N C E F R O M T H E T E R R I T O RY – T H R E AT T O F O R E I G N N AT I O N A L S I N R U S S I A
AN EXAMPLE OF RUSSIAN
SPECIAL SERVICES IN ACTION *
Hugo, a businessman from one EU
member state who provides consult-
ing on exports to the management
of an electronics manufacturer, visits
St. Petersburg regularly for business
meetings with the company. Hugo is
45, married and father of two children.
His hobbies are classical music and
tennis. As a young man, Hugo studied
as an exchange student for year in one
of Russia’s well-known universities and
is therefore fluent in Russian.
During his visits to Russia, Hugo started expressing great interest in the
made a new acquaintance through the details of Hugo’s company’s business
existing business partner, Sergei. As activities and contacts in Europe.
they got along well and had a shared Hugo, well aware of the constraints of
interest in playing tennis, the men be- confidentiality and business secrets,
came friends. After some time, Sergei avoided disclosing any details about his
company to Sergei. In the months that
followed, Hugo encountered problems
at the Russian border. Besides the
ordinary document checks, individuals
who claimed to be border guards ques-
tioned Hugo thoroughly in a private
room about various matters, taking an
interest in the purposes and details of
I N T E L L I G E N C E F R O M T H E T E R R I T O RY – T H R E AT T O F O R E I G N N AT I O N A L S I N R U S S I A 41
up costing about six times more than St. Petersburg stadium. The informa-
planned. In 2016, FIFA declared the field tion, first reported in the Norwegian
surface not up to standards, and serious media, caused the football federations
flaws were found in the roof structure, in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and
which could jeopardize spectator safety. Iceland to raise the issue with FIFA.
In connection with the incident, a cor- After following up on the situation,
ruption accusation was levelled at the FIFA President Gianni Infantino said in
deputy governor of St. Petersburg; the a letter to the presidents of the Nordic
scandal made headlines and did major football federations that abuses of the
harm to the organizers’ reputation. workforce had indeed occurred. There
In spring 2017, the international were also problems with other stadi-
media reported on the difficult work- ums. For instance, in Kaliningrad, the
ing and living conditions faced by the stadium was built on a marshy river
foreign workforce – mainly from North island, with billions of roubles spent to
Korea – used for the construction of the fill in the island with sand.
INFLUENCE OPERATIONS
Although Russian meddling in the internal affairs of several
countries was exposed in 2017, this did not deter the Kremlin
from undertaking new influence operations. In 2018, Russia’s
influence activities will be just as active as in past years.
F
or Russian special services, politicians, businessmen and opinion
influence operations are an leaders abroad.
inexpensive, effective and
well-established instrument in The aftermath of the Russian military
their arsenal. The capability in the field intelligence operation in Montenegro
of information warfare is growing (see and the intervention in elections in the
sidebar on information war units) and West are good examples of how the
Russia is already well-prepared for more Kremlin has been exposed and how
extensive disinformation campaigns. operations that seemed audaciously
successful on paper have actually pro-
Russia will continue its attempts to duced the opposite result.
influence democratic decision-making
processes in the West, especially in EU Since the US presidential election in
countries that have elections in 2018. 2016, awareness of the Kremlin’s activi-
The Kremlin believes that creating ty in the West has increased significant-
confusion in Western countries gives ly. This has not deterred Russia and it
Russia greater freedom of action and is continuing its efforts to undermine
increases its influence. – hack, leak or spread disinformation –
supporting the European politicians
Increasingly Russia believes that the who have proved suitable for the regime
state is forced to wage a hidden political in Moscow. In 2017, “Moscow’s hand”
struggle against the West and this was detected in an impressive number
self-delusion is spurring it to expand its of Western countries: the US, the UK,
influence operations and information Germany, France, Spain, the Neth-
warfare capability. That means dis- erlands, Norway, Denmark, Sweden,
seminating even more disinformation Bulgaria, Montenegro, Malta and else-
and more attempts to recruit Western where. Moscow’s attempts to influence
I N F L U E N C E O P E R AT I O N S 45
Italian domestic politics should be noted The Kremlin has not lost hope of cre-
in particular. Since the Crimean referen- ating a favourable geopolitical situation
dum in 2014, politicians and business- in Ukraine. Putin’s regime plans to
men mainly from the northern regions keep Ukraine – which is attempting to
of Italy have acted in accordance with integrate with the West – in constant
the Kremlin’s policies both in their home political crisis. Covert influence activities
countries and in occupied Ukraine. continue in oblast politics, in the media
and among members of parliament. At-
In the case of Estonia, Latvia and
tempts are made to provoke demands
Lithuania, we see attempts by the
for autonomy, above all in the country’s
Kremlin propaganda machine to tarnish
western oblasts. Russia has system-
and diminish the centennial celebration
atically developed a network of agents
events (see sidebar). Russia is certainly
of influence both inside and outside
interested in the Latvian parliamentary
Ukraine, who from time to time speak
elections this autumn. Information at-
out in support of the Kremlin or against
tacks on NATO forces in Estonia, Latvia
the Ukrainian state. These same agents
and Lithuania will continue at a pace
of influence publicly support the au-
similar to 2017.
tonomy demands of the Kremlin. The
46 I N F L U E N C E O P E R AT I O N S
The Kremlin believes that informational supe- discredit the political leadership of the adver-
riority will decide the global power struggle. A sary, generate distrust in the commanders of
doctrine formulated by the Chief of the General the adversary’s defence forces, create a negative
Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valeri Ger- image of the adversary’s government and soci-
asimov calls for constant informational con- ety among allies and in Russia, undermine the
frontation, with no distinction drawn between reputation of the adversary’s armed forces and
war and peacetime. demoralize the adversary’s soldiers and civilians.
To do this, they need to strengthen the position
Already in November 2015, an information
of both their own media and the Russian state
warfare centre was set up as a separate unit in
media in a target country to dominate the media
the Russian Southern Military District. A year
sphere in a conflict situation. This also includes
later, information warfare units were formed in
a direct element of subversion, as domination
each of the Russian Federation Armed Forces
of the information space requires a take-over or
military districts, including the Western Military
destruction of the opponent’s communication
District bordering Estonia. As a result, the Rus-
infrastructure. To conduct the information war,
sian armed forces are conducting information
the centres create “special materials”. These are
warfare in other countries similar to the one
fabrications that are designed to create maxi-
waged against Ukraine for several years already.
mum interest and are disseminated among the
The main target for the Western Military adversary’s population, members of the defence
District is NATO and its member states. Under forces, decision-makers and allies. Disinforma-
the Gerasimov doctrine the Russian armed tion is spread on online news sites, video sites,
forces wage a constant information war and social media, and traditional media both in the
we can expect information and psychological adversary’s country and Russia. Besides a mas-
operations in 2018 against Estonia and NATO sive information offensive, more specific targets
in general – e.g. spreading false information to may be attacked. For example, information
discredit allied soldiers or Estonian inhabitants. warfare units could monitor members of the
defence forces through social media and map
In general terms, the purpose of the information their social circle. After that they start sending
warfare centres is to undermine the adver- messages to mobile phones and calling fam-
sary’s resistance before a military conflict and ily members in order to threaten or flatter, or
to maintain a dominant position once it has spread disinformation via social media accounts
begun. More specifically, the centres try to use or e-mail.
the information and psychological operations to
48 I N F L U E N C E O P E R AT I O N S
leaders. They are offered high-level in October, when Russia held the
meetings in Moscow or Sochi. 19th international youth and student
festival in Sochi for tens of thousands
Along with current decision-mak-
of youths, including from the EU. The
ers, potential future leaders are also
programmes in Sochi and at other
groomed. To influence and recruit
similar events include tours and other
youths who are politically active and
attractive entertainment activities. The
live in the West, so-called youth fo-
main emphasis in the programmes
rums are organised. The culmination
lies on lectures, however, where the
of youth forums in 2017 took place
participants are indoctrinated with
I N F L U E N C E O P E R AT I O N S 49
RUSSIAN INFLUENCE
OPERATIONS IN EUROPE
Public meetings
Covert cooperation
Chain of command
EU M EM BER
s
tion ST AT ES
ra
pe
eo
rat ce
s
c
ion
en
opefluen
u
Infl
In
Influence
ination
Coord operations
Di
re
PUBLIC MEETINGS IN RUSSIA
cti
n
tio
o
RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT
ns
pera
o BODIES, STATE DUMA,
Co
FED ERAT IO N C O U NC IL
COVERT MEETINGS
IN RUSSIA
UK RAINE
52 C Y B E R T H R E AT S
CYBER THREATS
2017 showed that the cyber threat against the West
is growing and that most of the malicious cyber activity
originates in Russia.
F
or the Putin regime, cyber players in the field of cyber espionage.
operations are a cheap and In addition to Russian cyber espionage,
easily used means of advanc- one needs to continue to be attentive
ing the regime‘s interests. to North-Korean ransomware and
It is a weapon used to silence the other means of financial frauds, and
opposition within the country as well Chinese industrial espionage.
as to influence international organiza-
tions and foreign countries. Kremlin’s RUSSIAN APTs
policy is implemented by hackers, Last year, advanced persistent threats
internet trolls and cyber criminals who (APTs) of Russian origin received much
at first seem to have no link to any attention. These are carefully target-
state structures but who are central to ed, long-term cyber operations in the
Russian information warfare. course of which attackers combine
multiple techniques to get the desired
Over the years, Russia has invested
information about the target. Such
steadily in developing its cyber capa-
operations are complex and resource-in-
bility. Russia emphasizes the impor-
tensive, which is why they are not within
tance of cyber warfare and espionage
financial reach for smaller groups or
as equal to the conventional military
lone actors. Russian state interests and
capability. In doing so, Russia has
implementers are usually behind APTs.
become one of the world’s leading
CYBER CRIMINALS
AND HACKTIVISTS
APT – or Advanced Persistent Threat – carefully targeted, long term cyber operations in the course of which attackers
combine multiple techniques to obtain the needed information about the target.
56 C Y B E R T H R E AT S
TERRORISM
IN EUROPE
The terrorist threat in Europe
remains high in countries with a
larger Muslim population, due to the
geographical proximity of Syria and
Iraq, figthers of the so called Islamic
State (IS) returning to Europe and
aggressive IS propaganda.
L
ast year saw major setbacks A particular risk for Europe is posed by
for IS, loss of territory and the foreign fighters returning to Europe
decreased support. Starting with the flow of refugees, either at their
in 2012, up to 40,000 foreign own initiative or on orders from IS. A
fighters travelled to Syria and Iraq from major cause of concern is the possible
more than 100 countries to fight; today ties between IS and organised crime
their number is significantly lower. networks connected with illegal immi-
The image of IS has been tarnished by gration.
returned fighters. Considering the large
A growing trend in IS propaganda is
number of fighters, there are, however,
the incitement of women and children
sufficient numbers of people who wish
to commit acts of terror in order to
to continue the fight. Complete loss of
get wider media coverage and because
territory in Syria and Iraq will not lead
women and children are more likely to
to a major decrease in terrorist threat
pass through EU migration checks.
levels in Europe.
TERRORISM IN EUROPE 59
NORTH KOREA’S
WEAPONS PROGRAMME
CONTINUES
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has set a clear course
for developing nuclear warheads mounted on a missile and
missile delivery systems. In 2018, missile testing will continue,
increasing the likelihood of miscalculations but somewhat
unlikely to lead to a direct military conflict.
I
n 2017, the North Korean head conducted tests of intercontinental
of state Kim Jong-un continued ballistic missile technology. Although
developing the country’s weapons the magnitude of the nuclear test is
programme. The country carried not by itself proof that a hydrogen
out the test of the most powerful bomb actually exploded, Kim is moving
weapon in the country’s history, and closer to his goal of possessing nuclear
R EUT ERS/SCANP I X
Kim Il Sung, a day before the 105th anniversary of his birth.
N O R T H KO R E A’ S W E A P O N S P R O G R A M M E C O N T I N U E S 63
Missile tests
Nuclear tests
20
15
10
0
17
94
98
06
09
12
13
14
15
16
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
20
20
66 T H E E S TO N I A N FO R E I G N I N T E L L I G E N C E S E RV I C E ’ S M I S S I O N
COLLEC TS,
P RO C ESSES
A ND D I SS E MINATES
INTELLIGENCE
ON EXTE RN AL SECUR IT Y T HR EATS
AFFEC TIN G ESTONI A.
T H E E S T O N I A N FO R E I G N I N T E L L I G E N C E S E R V I C E ’ S M I S S I O N 67