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Projection of Hydrologic
Impacts of Climate Change on
the Korean Watersheds
- Preliminary assessment -
Huicheul JUNG
(hchjung@kei.re.kr)
Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change,
Korea Environment Institute
1
Impacts of climate change on
global freshwater resources (IPCC AR4, WG-II, SPM, 2007)
Warming temperature:
Snowmelt runoff will be changed in timing and the peak volume
Water supplies from glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline
Water quality and aquatic ecosystem could be deteriorated due to increasing
water temperature
Intensifying hydrological cycle:
10-40% increase of available water resources (AWR) at high latitude and in
some wet tropic regions; 10-30% decrease over dry regions at mid-latitude and
in the dry tropics
Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent
Heavy rainfall events (≈flood risk) are likely to increase in frequency and
magnitude
Rising sea level:
Coastal mega cities are vulnerable and water supplies from ground water will be
restricted due to sea water intrusion near coastal region
2
Impacts of climate change on
Korean water resources (June 2010 by MLTM)
Increases in water scarcity (KMA RCM A2 scenario):
14% increase of mean annual precipitation and +3.64 ˚C increase of mean
annual temperature (2061-2090 compared with1971-2000, 12.5 ˚C/1,230 mm)
Changes in seasonal water balance (runoff peak: from JJA to JAS, agricultural
water demand peak: JJA)
Water deficit due to increasing evapotranspiration (ET) : 33 x 109 ton / yr in
2060s (over the storage of Soyangang Dam, 29 x 109 ton )
Runoff decrease in Nackdong (-2.4%), Geum (-13.3%), Youngsan (-10.8%) in 2060s
3
Objectives
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4
Outline of impact assessment
Define and develop geographic and ecological scope of Korean
ecosystem and watersheds
25000
15000
10000
R2 = 0.9994, (n=174)
5000
0
0 10000 20000 30000
Reported Area ( km2)
6
Hydrological model
.
Simulated PE and Pan evaporation (mm/d) .
6 800
5
600
4
3 400
2
200
1
0
0
89/1 89/5 89/9 90/1 90/5 90/9 91/1
Jeonju (SJ) Chuncheon (SY) 7
Baseline climate scenario (1971-2000):
8
Indicator for hydrological impacts
9
Model validation (1): Daily inputs
200 200
200 200
2 2
r -cal. = 0.953 r -cal. = 0.905 100 r2-cal. = 0.852 100 r2-cal. = 0.962
r2-val. = 0.955 r2-val. = 0.807 r2-val. = 0.935 2
r -val. = 0.912
0 0 0 0
0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Observed monthly runoff (mm) Observed monthly runoff (mm) Observed monthly runoff (mm) Observed monthly runoff (mm)
100 2
r -cal. = 0.953 100 2 100
r -cal. = 0.964 100 r2-cal. = 0.965 2
r -cal. = 0.919
2 2
r -val. = 0.799 r -val. = 0.949 r2-val. = 0.928
0 0 0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 100 200 300 400 500
Observed monthly runoff (mm) Observed monthly runoff (mm) Observed monthly runoff (mm) Observed monthly runoff (mm)
10
Model validation (2): Generated daily inputs
1
Monthly mean flow
3
0.6
1000
(mm/year)
RO/P
800 0.5
600
0.4
400
Reported RO('69-98)
0.3 Simulated RO('71-00)
200 Reported P('69-98)
GIS-based P('71-00)
0 0.2 Simulated runoff rate
n g m in n n n g in n st st st )
Ha kdon Geu omj ngsa cheo cheo yeon ngj ngsa coa coa coa land
e o
S Ye ong gyo ang o o t t h i n
Na D ye Eas es t
W S o u io n a
l(
se Sap M H
An N a t
MIROC-high res.
MRI-RCM a24 a11 A1-CSIRO(TAR)
Precipitation change (%)
40 a1b A1B-MICRO(AR4)
a1b a21 A2-CCCMA(TAR)
a22 A2-CSIRO(TAR)
a1b r40 a23 A2-ECHAM(TAR)
a24 A2-HADCM(TAR)
a25 A2-NCARPCM(TAR)
r40
b24 a26 A2-CCCMA(AR4)
20 b24 a27 A2-CSIRO(AR4)
a28 A2-ECHAM(AR4)
b25 a29 A2-GFDL(AR4)
b23 b1 B1-CSIRO(TAR)
a23
r90 b21 B2-CCCMA(TAR)
r90b23
b21 a29 a29
b22 B2-CSIRO(TAR)
a25 GCMs from TAR and AR4
a21
b25 b21
a27
a28b22
a26
b23 B2-ECHAM(TAR)
0 a28b22
b1 a26 a23 b24 B2-HADCM(TAR)
a27 a11 b1 a11 b25 B2-NCARP CM(TAR)
a22 a25 a21 r40 A2-MRI(RCM)2040s
a22 r90 A2-MRI(RCM)2090s
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
o
Temperatuer increase ( C)
13
Changes in runoff
14
Changes in Mean Annual Runoff by 2040s /2090s
40 40%
37.5%
35.1% A) 20-year mean (2031-2050)
Oct.-May.
30 30%
3
12.7%
10 11.0% 10.5% 10%
6.5% 5.8%
0 0%
-3.2%
-7.7%
-10 -10%
-15.9% -16.5% -16.6%
-20 -20%
ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK
Oct.-May.
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 100
2090s 2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
400 C.ROK-Gangwon 400 D.DPK-Gangwon
300 300
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100 2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
400 E. ROK-Chungcheong 400 F.DPK-Hwanghae
300 300
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100 2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
400 G.ROK-Jeolla 400 H.DPK-Hamgyeong
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100
2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
300 300
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100 2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
16
Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability: Changes in Mean Annual and
Seasonal Runoff by MIROC A1B scenario
Provinces in S.Korea Provinces in N.Korea
300 A.ROK-Gyeonggi Absolute change Percent change 400 B.DPK-Pyeongan
250
2090s (mm/year) 2090s (%) 300
200
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
150 200
Present Present
100
2040s 2040s
100
2090s 2090s
50
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
250 C.ROK-Gangwon 400 D.DPK-Gangwon
200
300
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
150
200
100 Present Present
2040s 2040s
2090s 100 2090s
50
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
400 E. ROK-Chungcheong 400 F.DPK-Hwanghae
300 300
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100 2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
400 G.ROK-Jeolla 400 H.DPK-Hamgyeong
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100
2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
300 300
Runoff (mm)
Runoff (mm)
200 200
Present Present
2040s 2040s
100 2090s 100 2090s
0 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
17
Climate change impacts on extreme flows (1):
Flood risk flow
Changes in flood risk flow (2081-2100):
MRI-RCM A2: ROK +11.4~44.1%, DPK +7.7%~38.1%
MIROC A1B: ROK +24.8~40.3%, DPK +37.1%~58.8%
MRIRCM-A2 MIROC-A1B
18
Climate change impacts on extreme flows (2):
Drought risk flow
Changes in drought risk flow (2081-2100):
MRI-RCM A2: ROK -5.4~-14.7%, DPK: -12.3%,
MIROC A1B: None
MRIRCM-A2 MIROC-A1B
19
Climate change impacts on extreme flows (3):
Potential risk areas
Extreme event risk area affected by floods and drought,
simultaneously (MRI-RCM): ROK about 53%, DPK 24% of
inland area
2040s (2031-2050) 2090s (2081-2100)
MRIRCM-A2 (2040s) MIROC-A1B (2040s) MRIRCM-A2 (2090s)
20
Ecosystem Contribution to Runoff Change (1):
Experiment setting
Runoff changes in the select eight forested watersheds (23% of
the whole nation) by 2081-2100
Three novel approaches to evaluate the ecosystem contribution
to future runoff increase
Case C: Climate change only (MRIRCM-A2 scenario)
Case CP: C + Physiological forcing, P(Atmospheric CO2 conc,. =700
ppmv.)
Case CPV: CP + Vegetation distribution change, V (35% increases in the
deciduous forest fraction)
Variables SY HW CJ NG HC AD DC SJ Mean
ΔT(˚C) 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8
ΔP(%) 11.4% 14.6% 16.3% 7.1% 6.7% 22.1% 13.7% 13.2% 13.1%
ΔWind(%) 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 0.5% -0.7% -1.6% -0.3%
ΔHumidity(%) 18.7% 17.7% 18.0% 17.6% 17.7% 17.8% 16.8% 16.7% 17.6%
ΔRadiation(%) 1.0% 0.5% 1.8% -0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6%
21
Ecosystem Contribution to Runoff Change (2):
Results
Climate change alone: 12% (2~17%) increase in runoff
CP change: 16% (5~32%) increase in runoff
CPV change: 17% (8~28%) increase in runoff
Increased CO2 effect on runoff: 3.3% (1.1~7.7%)
Increased CO2 and deciduous forests effects: 5.0% (2.5~10.8%)
(mm/yr)
40 500
2
C y = 0.979x - 70.661 R = 0.919
C P V 2
runoff
400 2
change in runoff
.
CPV y = 1.039x - 44.591 R = 0.976
(mm/year)
30
runoff
300
in annual
25
Runoff change
20 200
change in annual
Percent
15 100
% change
10
0
5
-100
0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
SY HW CJ NG HC AD DC SJ Mean 22
Precipitation
Precipitationchange (mm/yr)
change (mm/year)
Summary
Runoff tends to be increased in western coastal region of the peninsula
and upper interior region of the Han River Basin around the Gwangwon
province.
Extreme flows tend to be increased in maritime parts of the peninsula.
Floods may be increased over the whole peninsula, especially western
coastal region and North Korea, because of increases of the heavy rainfall
in summer season.
Low flow also tends to be increased however the western coastal region
of the peninsula and the middle parts of the Han River basin are showing
reduced low flow by 2090s in MRIRCM scenario.
Changes in forest ecosystem has an additional contribution to future
runoff increases. Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and
deciduous forest species fraction produce about 5% of more runoff ranging
from 2.5% to 10.8% in the forested watersheds.
23
Concluding remarks
Serious changes in extreme events are concerned and water
scarce region in the future is basically corresponding to exiting
hot-spots near the coastal region
In order to provide useful information for impact and
adaptation assessment studies,
The uncertainties in regional climate projections need to
24