Periode Data pemulusan level pemulusan trend ramalan error

(t) (yt) l(t) F(t+1) alpha

1 150.30 150.30 0.60 beta 0
2 150.90 149.82 0.492 150.90 0.00
3 151.40 149.5352 0.41432 150.31 0.718626
4 151.90 149.398792 0.3592472 149.95 1.284055
5 152.20 149.35559032 0.319002312 149.76 1.604442
6 152.50 149.3829292072 0.2898359695 149.67 1.852726
7 152.50 149.4337839139 0.2659378432 149.67 1.853924
8 152.90 149.5410614636 0.2500718139 149.70 2.093053
9 153.20 149.6818906847 0.2391475546 149.79 2.225109
10 153.70 149.8684688171 0.2338906124 149.92 2.458661
11 153.60 150.0311203843 0.2267667079 150.10 2.27711
12 153.50 150.1739183088 0.2183698295 150.26 2.112126
13 154.40 150.3999936313 0.2191403788 150.39 2.595668
14 154.90 150.6527679272 0.2225037705 150.62 2.763632
15 155.70 150.957237741 0.2307003749 150.88 3.098734
16 156.30 151.2838836295 0.2402949262 151.19 3.270673
17 156.60 151.599229833 0.2478000539 151.52 3.241265
18 156.70 151.8862868011 0.2517257454 151.85 3.096982
19 157.00 152.1711049502 0.2550349857 152.14 3.096807
20 157.30 152.454462968 0.2578672889 152.43 3.098449
21 157.80 152.7569361112 0.2623278744 152.71 3.224125
22 158.30 153.0751474131 0.2679162171 153.02 3.335904
23 158.60 153.3865080764 0.2722606617 153.34 3.314588
24 158.60 153.6628226732 0.2726660552 153.66 3.11553
25 159.10 153.9611409561 0.275231278 153.94 3.246079
26 159.60 154.2773187103 0.2793259256 154.24 3.360669
27 160.00 154.5981935062 0.2834808127 154.56 3.402097
28 160.20 154.9032414242 0.2856375232 154.88 3.319804
29 160.10 155.1658435109 0.2833339795 155.19 3.067533
30 160.30 155.4242585782 0.2808420883 155.45 3.02609
31 160.50 155.6790748409 0.2782395058 155.71 2.987476
32 160.80 155.9407518016 0.2765832513 155.96 3.01162
33 161.20 156.2177516953 0.2766249155 156.22 3.090983
34 161.60 156.5070141019 0.2778886646 156.49 3.15942
35 161.50 156.7562128935 0.2750196773 156.78 2.919565
36 161.30 156.9630738946 0.2682038097 157.03 2.646477
37 161.60 157.1853830764 0.2636143469 157.23 2.703417
38 161.90 157.4195918566 0.2606737902 157.45 2.74923
39 162.20 157.6630262597 0.2589498515 157.68 2.786519
40 162.50 157.9136687674 0.2581191171 157.92 2.817245
41 162.80 158.1699946852 0.2579397972 158.17 2.842882
42 163.00 158.4208493992 0.2572312889 158.43 2.804948
43 163.20 158.6672562993 0.25614885 158.68 2.770784
44 163.40 158.9099967044 0.2548080055 158.92 2.739654
45 163.60 159.149669829 0.2532945174 159.16 2.711
46 164.00 159.4067377804 0.2536718608 159.40 2.803071
47 164.00 159.6377593276 0.2514068295 159.66 2.646092
48 163.90 159.8377172484 0.2462619386 159.89 2.447123
49 164.30 160.0623097788 0.2440949978 160.08 2.56605
50 164.50 160.2863933029 0.2420938504 160.31 2.549298
51 165.00 160.5398695073 0.2432320858 160.53 2.710008
52 166.20 160.8869736793 0.2536192944 160.78 3.259265
53 166.20 161.1900189464 0.2585618917 161.14 3.044168
54 166.20 161.4583113492 0.2595349428 161.45 2.858856
55 166.70 161.7488987658 0.2626401902 161.72 2.988694
56 167.10 162.047632718 0.2662495664 162.01 3.045159
57 167.90 162.3932448365 0.2741858216 162.31 3.32705
58 168.20 162.7271531134 0.2801580671 162.67 3.28928
59 168.30 163.0322955417 0.2826565032 163.01 3.144794
60 168.30 163.3046751346 0.2816288122 163.31 2.962001
61 168.80 163.6007416901 0.2830725865 163.59 3.088682
62 169.80 163.9659021932 0.2912813782 163.88 3.484208
63 171.20 164.4271587335 0.3082788944 164.26 4.055383
64 171.30 164.8369918552 0.3184343171 164.74 3.832202
65 171.50 165.2167017843 0.3245618783 165.16 3.69946
66 172.40 165.6429259153 0.3347281036 165.54 3.978385
67 172.80 166.0573780306 0.3427005048 165.98 3.948117
68 172.80 166.4232097732 0.3450136286 166.40 3.703658
69 173.70 166.8403765302 0.3522289414 166.77 3.99066
70 174.00 167.2393328299 0.3569016772 167.19 3.912296
71 174.10 167.6041880374 0.3576970303 167.60 3.735649
72 174.00 167.9218419065 0.3536927141 167.96 3.470181
73 175.10 168.3213342731 0.3582726794 168.28 3.897467
74 175.80 168.7467554343 0.3649875276 168.68 4.05028
75 176.20 169.1635911161 0.370172343 169.11 4.022847
76 176.90 169.6040768958 0.3772036867 169.53 4.164068
77 177.70 170.0741858882 0.3864942172 169.98 4.34368
78 178.00 170.5189225039 0.3923184571 170.46 4.235573
79 177.50 170.8639436421 0.3875887252 170.91 3.711977
80 177.50 171.1787194252 0.380307431 171.25 3.520263
81 178.30 171.5485707948 0.3792618248 171.56 3.780692
82 177.70 171.822378073 0.3687163702 171.93 3.248265
83 177.40 172.0482955325 0.3544364791 172.19 2.936249
84 176.70 172.1944731481 0.3336105928 172.40 2.431957
85 177.10 172.3847762998 0.3192798487 172.53 2.581545
86 177.80 172.638946806 0.3127689144 172.70 2.86611
87 178.80 172.9735601024 0.3149533526 172.95 3.270853
88 179.80 173.3727460748 0.3233766146 173.29 3.621516
 89 179.80 173.7244325142 0.3262075971 173.70 3.394815
90 179.90 174.0484024254 0.3259838285 174.05 3.251451
91 180.10 174.3601767373 0.3245628768 174.37 3.17913
92 180.70 174.7020524744 0.3262941629 174.68 3.328866
93 181.00 175.0381824804 0.3272777472 175.03 3.299256
94 181.30 175.3698142599 0.3277131504 175.37 3.273326
95 181.30 175.6678909986 0.3247495092 175.70 3.090167
96 180.90 175.8988273404 0.3153681925 175.99 2.712747
97 181.70 176.1951132331 0.3134599625 176.21 3.019155
98 183.10 176.6034879436 0.3229514373 176.51 3.599905
99 184.20 177.0724828556 0.3375557848 176.93 3.94873
100 183.80 177.4414343638 0.3406953571 177.41 3.476584
101 183.50 177.740665106 0.3365488956 177.78 3.116006
102 183.70 178.0337045893 0.3321979544 178.08 3.060852
103 183.90 178.3213559714 0.3277432972 178.37 3.009297
104 184.60 178.6542514068 0.328258511 178.65 3.223673
105 185.20 179.0133936063 0.3313468798 178.98 3.357176
106 185.00 179.3138420538 0.3282570366 179.34 3.056897
107 184.50 179.5370265155 0.3177497791 179.64 2.633009
108 184.30 179.7273490627 0.3050070559 179.85 2.41195
109 185.20 180.0001078061 0.3017822247 180.03 2.790304
110 186.20 180.3484930233 0.3064425239 180.30 3.167621
111 187.40 180.7778454494 0.3187335141 180.65 3.599287
112 188.00 181.2132007418 0.330395692 181.10 3.672032
113 189.10 181.7045245448 0.3464885031 181.54 3.995983
114 189.70 182.1922324376 0.360610442 182.05 4.032149
115 189.40 182.588459796 0.3641721337 182.55 3.615183
116 189.50 182.9518588961 0.3640948303 182.95 3.455075
117 189.90 183.3189876592 0.3643982236 183.32 3.467112
118 190.90 183.749130492 0.3709726845 183.68 3.780311
119 191.00 184.1403420267 0.3729965695 184.12 3.60204
120 190.30 184.4206109115 0.3637238011 184.51 3.04081
121 184.78
122 185.15
123 185.51
mape 3.10
 alpha 0.1
0.1 beta 0 0.1
0.1
Periode Data pemulusanpemulusanramalan error
(t) (yt) l(t) F(t+1) alpha 0.9
1 150.30 150.30 0.60 beta 0 0.9
2 150.90 150.78 0.492 150.90 0.00
3 151.40 151.2888 0.50712 151.27 0.084544
4 151.90 151.7882 0.500143 151.80 0.068519
5 152.20 152.1088 0.338585 152.29 0.058023
6 152.50 152.427 0.320256 152.45 0.0345
7 152.50 152.4607 0.062315 152.75 0.162149
8 152.90 152.8498 0.356475 152.52 0.246572
9 153.20 153.1293 0.287197 153.21 0.00412
10 153.70 153.6142 0.46511 153.42 0.184428
11 153.60 153.5549 -0.00686 154.08 0.31206
12 153.50 153.5062 -0.04455 153.55 0.031302
13 154.40 154.3151 0.723551 153.46 0.607752
14 154.90 154.7692 0.481027 155.04 0.089492
15 155.70 155.5588 0.758797 155.25 0.288902
16 156.30 156.15 0.60795 156.32 0.011267
17 156.60 156.4942 0.370578 156.76 0.100863
18 156.70 156.6424 0.1704 156.86 0.105159
19 157.00 156.9472 0.29139 156.81 0.11926
20 157.30 157.2356 0.288685 157.24 0.039042
21 157.80 157.7147 0.460067 157.52 0.174737
22 158.30 158.1955 0.478702 158.17 0.079118
23 158.60 158.5117 0.332463 158.67 0.046762
24 158.60 158.5579 0.074867 158.84 0.153934
25 159.10 159.0383 0.439832 158.63 0.293659
26 159.60 159.4998 0.459371 159.48 0.076355
27 160.00 159.904 0.409717 159.96 0.025489
28 160.20 160.1294 0.243819 160.31 0.071014
29 160.10 160.0786 -0.0214 160.37 0.170676
30 160.30 160.28 0.179151 160.06 0.151492
31 160.50 160.4601 0.179994 160.46 0.025453
32 160.80 160.748 0.277131 160.64 0.099453
33 161.20 161.1271 0.368884 161.03 0.108474
34 161.60 161.5158 0.386748 161.50 0.064374
35 161.50 161.4629 -0.00895 161.90 0.249268
36 161.30 161.3172 -0.13204 161.45 0.09545
37 161.60 161.5849 0.227759 161.19 0.25672
38 161.90 161.8457 0.25749 161.81 0.053933
39 162.20 162.1388 0.289545 162.10 0.059675
40 162.50 162.4349 0.295449 162.43 0.044082
41 162.80 162.7339 0.298663 162.73 0.042766
42 163.00 162.9435 0.218489 163.03 0.020007
43 163.20 163.1525 0.209927 163.16 0.023274
44 163.40 163.3543 0.202571 163.36 0.022992
45 163.60 163.5552 0.201077 163.56 0.026388
46 164.00 163.9354 0.362324 163.76 0.148631
47 164.00 163.9573 0.055942 164.30 0.181545
48 163.90 163.9001 -0.04586 164.01 0.069097
49 164.30 164.2646 0.323431 163.85 0.271287
50 164.50 164.4441 0.193909 164.59 0.053514
51 165.00 164.925 0.452204 164.64 0.219379
52 166.20 166.0273 1.037255 165.38 0.495051
53 166.20 166.079 0.150274 167.06 0.520179
54 166.20 166.1729 0.099511 166.23 0.017616
55 166.70 166.6373 0.427968 166.27 0.256519
56 167.10 167.0109 0.379037 167.07 0.020763
57 167.90 167.7732 0.723932 167.39 0.303768
58 168.20 168.0849 0.352955 168.50 0.176648
59 168.30 168.2432 0.17774 168.44 0.081926
60 168.30 168.2765 0.047788 168.42 0.071858
61 168.80 168.7429 0.424476 168.32 0.281793
62 169.80 169.6518 0.860515 169.17 0.372584
63 171.20 170.9591 1.262615 170.51 0.401662
64 171.30 171.1397 0.288729 172.22 0.538089
65 171.50 171.4351 0.294769 171.43 0.041761
66 172.40 172.274 0.784523 171.73 0.388711
67 172.80 172.669 0.433879 173.06 0.149627
68 172.80 172.7435 0.110489 173.10 0.175249
69 173.70 173.5933 0.775864 172.85 0.487049
70 174.00 173.8817 0.337184 174.37 0.212164
71 174.10 174.0445 0.180159 174.22 0.06831
72 174.00 173.9864 -0.03421 174.22 0.129089
73 175.10 174.9921 0.90165 173.95 0.655499
74 175.80 175.629 0.663445 175.89 0.053307
75 176.20 176.0766 0.469111 176.29 0.052489
76 176.90 176.7707 0.671678 176.55 0.200299
77 177.70 177.5399 0.759413 177.44 0.144951
78 178.00 177.878 0.38027 178.30 0.168157
79 177.50 177.4998 -0.30242 178.26 0.427222
80 177.50 177.5302 -0.00284 177.20 0.170501
81 178.30 178.2233 0.623494 177.53 0.433329
82 177.70 177.69 -0.41764 178.85 0.645357
83 177.40 177.4708 -0.23906 177.27 0.071963
84 176.70 176.801 -0.62671 177.23 0.300906
85 177.10 177.1328 0.235937 176.17 0.522714
86 177.80 177.7097 0.542816 177.37 0.242572
87 178.80 178.6367 0.888585 178.25 0.306208
88 179.80 179.5948 0.95117 179.53 0.152797
 89 179.80 179.6844 0.175715 180.55 0.414894
90 179.90 179.8609 0.176422 179.86 0.02219
91 180.10 180.0584 0.195464 180.04 0.034821
92 180.70 180.6163 0.521615 180.25 0.246869
93 181.00 180.9095 0.316015 181.14 0.076195
94 181.30 181.2293 0.319491 181.23 0.041101
95 181.30 181.261 0.060425 181.55 0.137251
96 180.90 180.9301 -0.29179 181.32 0.232952
97 181.70 181.6522 0.620737 180.64 0.584336
98 183.10 182.8931 1.178938 182.27 0.451709
99 184.20 183.9514 1.070342 184.07 0.069445
100 183.80 183.7081 -0.11195 185.02 0.664724
101 183.50 183.532 -0.16969 183.60 0.052404
102 183.70 183.7002 0.134379 183.36 0.183822
103 183.90 183.8666 0.163207 183.83 0.035591
104 184.60 184.5103 0.595703 184.03 0.308892
105 185.20 185.0715 0.564584 185.11 0.050734
106 185.00 184.9507 -0.05224 185.64 0.343809
107 184.50 184.5503 -0.36558 184.90 0.215961
108 184.30 184.3616 -0.20639 184.18 0.062554
109 185.20 185.1368 0.67705 184.16 0.56415
110 186.20 186.026 0.867964 185.81 0.207385
111 187.40 187.1758 1.12164 186.89 0.270043
112 188.00 187.8054 0.678818 188.30 0.158213
113 189.10 188.9027 1.055401 188.48 0.32563
114 189.70 189.5147 0.6564 189.96 0.136036
115 189.40 189.3458 -0.08636 190.17 0.407141
116 189.50 189.4932 0.124012 189.26 0.126929
117 189.90 189.8469 0.330732 189.62 0.148904
118 190.90 190.7616 0.856301 190.18 0.37839
119 191.00 190.8905 0.201652 191.62 0.323519
120 190.30 190.3389 -0.47631 191.09 0.416281
121 189.86
122 189.39
123 188.91
0.20