Alternative Energy Systems Essay

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems

Name: Taylor Larsen

Student Number: 682134

Programme: MEng Mechanical Engineering

Date: 11/01/19

Department of Maritime and Mechanical Engineering

Faculty of Engineering and Technology
Byrom Operations
School of Engineering, Technology and Maritime St, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK
James Parsons Building, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, UK.
7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

Contents

Introduction......................................................................................................................................................1
Global warming and the UK’s emission reduction targets................................................................................2
Generation Capacity.........................................................................................................................................3
Grid Infrastructure............................................................................................................................................4
Discussion.........................................................................................................................................................5
Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................5
References........................................................................................................................................................6
Appendix A: Emission Reduction......................................................................................................................8
Appendix B: Energy Demand............................................................................................................................8

Taylor Larsen 1 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

Introduction

The UK government have announced plans to ban the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars and vans by
2040, aiming for almost every car and van on the road to be a zero emission vehicle by 2050 (Department
for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Department for Transport, 2017), this will be largely due to the
adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).

The documents primary concern is that of improving national air quality. The UK government predicts that,
by 2040 around 40,000 UK residents will die annually because of air pollution. This is something that must
be addressed Rising levels of nitrogen oxide will present the largest environmental risk to public health with
respect to asthma, heart/lung disease, bronchitis, diabetes, autism, and several other major health
problems, and up to 44% of UK wildlife habitats and half of all the country’s plant life will be at risk from
poor air quality. Moreover, diminished national productivity resulting from air pollution (currently estimated
at £2.7 billion per year) is forecast to become worse (Bennett and Vijaygopal, 2018).

The implementation of the plan is also an important milestone in the UKs efforts to battling global climate
change via emission reduction and moving to more environmentally sustainable energy usage.

The use of fossils fuels has significant negative impacts on the environment in terms of global warming, land
degradation and water pollution, among others factors (Denchak, 2018). Global efforts to reduce these
impacts coupled with the finite nature of fossils fuels has prompted efforts to move to more sustainable
means of energy.

Figure 1: Projected reserves depletion rates of Coal, Gas and Oil (Ecotricity, 2017)

Observing Figure 1, projected rates of depletion for primary fossil fuel sources is fast approaching. Oil
reserves are predicted to last until 2052, closely followed by gas in 2060 and finally coal in 2088 (Ecotricity,
2017). Being so close, this highlights the importance of rapid advancements and implementation of a more
sustainable energy technologies.

Taylor Larsen 1 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

The aims and objectives of this report are as follows:

 Investigate and evaluate the UK government’s plan regarding the ban of sale of petrol and diesel
cars by 2040
 Address the impact on UK emission targets and global warming.
 Evaluate the effects on UK generation capacity and grid infrastructure.

The report will first outline the UKs existing obligations towards global warming and their national emissions
targets before discussing the potential impacts the ban may have on UK energy generation capacity and grid
infrastructure, accompanied with some numerical quantification before key findings are discussed.

Global warming and the UK’s emission reduction targets

Under the Paris Agreement, participating parties (including the UK) seek to strengthen global response to
climate change with a goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, pursing
efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees (United Nations, 2015).

The Climate Change Act (2008) is the UKs pledge to the Paris Agreement which commits the UK government
by law to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% of 1990 levels by 2050. UK emissions were
43% below 1990 levels in 2017 at 455.9 MtCO 2e GW (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial
Standards, 2018a). The first carbon budget (2008-12) was met and the UK is on track to outperform the
second (2013-17) and third (2018-22) carbon budgets, but not the fourth (2023-27), which will require
reduction of domestic emissions by 3% per year (Committee on Climate Change, n.d.).

Additionally, the EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework (European Commission, 2014) commits the UK to
additional decarbonisation targets by 2030; at least 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990
levels), renewable energy to make up 27% of EU energy consumption, reduce energy use by at least 27%
(compared to 2030 projection). Although the UK’s future relationship with the EU is yet to be determined,
the UK’s current energy and climate policy is in line with the EU’s 2030 targets, and in some cases is more
ambitious (National Grid, 2018a).

Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to drastically impact the UKs air quality and contribution to global
emissions. van Vliet et al. (2011) indorse that irrespective of electricity source, EVs produce less CO2
emissions than both hybrid and conventional vehicles. It is generally accepted that EVs could also increase
renewable energy growth with minimal negative implication to the grid (Richardson, 2013). Particularly with
wind (Short and Denholm, 2006) and solar (Birnie, 2009) power. Appendix A shows a calculated emission
decreases of 18% in 2040 provided that EVs are assumed to have zero emissions.

Taylor Larsen 2 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

Generation Capacity

Large scale adoption of EVs will present substantial challenges to UK power generation and grid
infrastructure. Estimates predict the number of EVs could reach 36 million by 2040 (National Grid, 2018b).
Charging requirements would considerably increase energy required from the grid, particularly at peak
times, likely around 17:30 weekdays (National Grid, 2017). Peak demand could potentially reach 30 GW
(Butcher, Hinson and Hirst, 2018) in the worst case scenario however it is more likely to be closer to 8 GW
due to utilisation of technologies such as vehicle-to-grid and smart charging (National Grid, 2018a).
UK electricity generation capacity in 2017 was rated at 103.6 GW (Department for Business, Energy &
Industrial Standards, 2018a). Figure 1 shows a predicted electricity generation of 139 GW in 2035, an
increase of 35.4 GW. It should also be noted that their prediction shows a large decline in the use of fossil
fuels, with coal eliminated entirely by 2030 and oil near unused by 2035. A massive 29 GW increase is also
predicted in renewables, highlighting the UKs seriousness towards a move to a more sustainable future.

Figure 2: UK total electricity generation capacity projection from 2017 to 2035 (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial
Strategy, 2018b)

Using the efficiency of the UKs most popular electric vehicle (Nissan Leaf) (Lane, 2019) and the average
number of miles driven in the UK per year, Appendix B shows a calculated increase of 8.334 GW of required
power for the year 2040. This falls comfortably with the predicted generation increases of 35.4 GW and falls
with the 8 GW estimated peak demand however does not account for the increased demand of power
generation or EV production.

Taylor Larsen 3 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

Grid Infrastructure

Substantial increases in the number if EV would results in massive changes to grid infrastructure, primarily
due to increased demand for public charging points.

At the end of 2018 there was 18,970 public charging points across 6,646 locations throughout the UK (Zap-
Map, 2019). Limited access to charge points becomes a major concern when addressing practical
functionality of owning an EV. Infrastructure expansion would be required in order to provide charge points
throughout the UK, including remote areas, which poses considerable difficulties. In 2017 government
announced a £400m budget to implement a national charging network for electric cars (HuffPost UK, 2017),
this figure is likely to increase massively following the announcement to ban the sale of petrol and diesel
cars.

Current variations within charge point providers could also pose problems in terms of vehicle compatibility.
There are over 30 different providers in the UK at the moment (Lilly, 2018), many only acting within local
regions. The Automated and Electric Vehicles Act (2018) will see massive improvement in electric charge
point availability. The new laws will improve consumer confidence by ensuring standard charge point
compatibility, standardising payment methods and setting reliability standards (GOV.UK, 2018a).

In terms of charging logistics, 36% of UK homes do not have access to off street parking (Priday, 2018)
begging the question of how a large percentage of the potential EVs will be charged in line at home. This
emphasises the need for accessible fast charging points.

My Electric Avenue (2015) conducted a study which showed that currently if 40-70% of properties in a given
area were charging EVs that in many areas the grid would not be able to cope. Papadopoulos et al. (2012)
conducted a study which showed similarly that in 2030, if EV uptake hit 33-71%, an average UK distribution
network (348 homes) would not be able to cope with demand. This highlights the importance of grid
network reinforcement and EV charging management controls.

Smart charging has been suggested as a means of ensuring grad stability and consumer benefit. The system
controls the charging times and rates in order to decrease strain on the grid and allow consumers to save
money by charging at times where electricity is cheaper.

UK government announced a £30m investment into Vehicle-to-Grid R&D (Government Europa, 2018). In
this method EVs can be used as a buffer for the grid. When demand is high, energy can be fed back to the
grid and when demand is low energy can be stored in EV batteries, minimising waste. Therefore consumers
can buy electricity when prices are low and sell back to the grid when prices are high (My Electric Avenue,
2015).

Taylor Larsen 4 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

Discussion

Enforcement of the 2040 ban has many obvious benefits, it can be seen by Appendix A that implementing
the ban will significantly reduce UK road emissions through the adoption of and electrified road fleet. It has
been suggested that the ban be brought forward to 2035, this would aid likely have a positive influence on
reaching emission targets.
Improvements in air quality will improve quality of life for UK residents, hopefully leading to less air related
health problems and may even aid productivity rates.

The ban was largely influenced by the need to meet targets required by the Paris Agreement, Climate
Change Act and the Climate and Energy Framework. The appreciation of the importance of climate change
is becoming ever more present and respected. Reduced emissions and a move to more sustainable energy
sources will kept the UK in line to meet its global contribution targets. It should be note that although UK
contribution is significant, all parties must continue to work together and make conscious efforts to ensure
temperature rise is as limited as possible. Efforts to ensure public opinions are positive is essential for
smooth adoption of EVs. Addition government incentives, particularly in the early stages may be majorly
beneficial.

The 18% emission reduction found in Appendix A supports the ban however the calculated value was
obtained via a fairly basic method which could be strengthen moving forward. Other factors such as
production emissions or emissions associated increased electricity generation were also ignored which may
affect the accuracy of the results.

In terms of generation capacity, providing there are no major setbacks, the UK should comfortably meet its
generation requirements provided assumptions made in Appendix B do not fluctuate the results too much.
The energy produced is also set to be from more sustainable sources with significantly less fossil fuels being
use, this is hugely important for the UK efforts towards global warming and decarbonisation however the
unpredictability associated with renewables (such as varying wind speeds) may skew predictions in an
unfavourable manor as the entire design capacity may not always be available. Demand will be aided by the
use of smart technologies such as Vehicle-to-Grid and Smart Charging.

In terms of grid infrastructure, provided relevant technologies are utilised and an effective strategy for grid
reinforcement is utilised, the UK should be set for a smooth transition replacing conventional petrol and
diesel cars and vans. Improvements to infrastructure may be the biggest challenge associated with the ban.
Substantial efforts must be made to implement the National Charging Network. The economic impact of
implementation will be significant due to the massive national charging network and reinforcement of the
current grid infrastructure required to cope with the potential demand. Implementation of smart
technologies will be essential in order to effective manage demand. It is estimated that grid reinforcement
required for EVs could cost up to £16 billion by 2050 if smart technologies are not utilised (Papadopoulos et
al., 2012)

Conclusion

 The UK will benefit from the plan in the long term.

 UK emissions and global warming targets will benefit, the plan should be pursued.
 Generation capacity should manage the transition, provided current predictions are relatively accurate
 Grid Infrastructure will require major improvement in order to maintain stability and consumer
demand.
 Implementation will require major financial commitment in terms of both infrastructure development
and power generation.

Taylor Larsen 5 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

 The plan can work but will need to be altered according to future variations in market fluctuations and
technology development.

References

1. Automated and Electric Vehicles Act 2018. [online]. London: The Stationery Office. [Accessed
10/01/2019]. Available from:
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/18/pdfs/ukpga_20180018_en.pdf

2. Bennett, R. and Vijaygopal, R. (2018). An assessment of UK drivers’ attitudes regarding the

forthcoming ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles. Transportation Research Part D: Transport
and Environment, 62, pp.330-344.

3. Birnie, D. (2009). Solar-to-vehicle (S2V) systems for powering commuters of the future. Journal of
Power Sources, 186(2), pp.539-542.

4. Butcher, L., Hinson, S. and Hirst, D. (2018). Electric vehicles and infrastructure. House of Commons
Library.

5. Climate Change Act 2008. (c.27). [online]. London: The Stationery Office. [Accessed 10/01/2019].
Available from: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/pdfs/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf

6. Committee on Climate Change. (n.d.). How the UK is progressing. [online] Available at:
https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/reducing-carbon-emissions/how-the-uk-is-
progressing/ [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

7. Denchak, M. (2018). Fossil Fuels: The Dirty Facts. [online] NRDC. Available at:
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/fossil-fuels-dirty-facts#sec-disadvantages [Accessed 11 Jan. 2019].

8. Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Standards (2018a). UK ENERGY IN BRIEF 2018.
[online] Available at:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/72
8374/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2018.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

9. Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (2018c) 2016 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions
[Internet]. London; 2018. Available from:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/fil
e/679334/2016_Final_Emissions_Statistics_one_page_summary.pdf

10. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (2018b). Total electricity generation
capacity projections of major power producers in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2017 to 2035 (in
Gigawatt). Statista.[ Accessed January 10, 2019.] Available from:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/496283/total-electricity-generation-capacity-uk/.

11. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Department for Transport (2017). UK plan for
tackling roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations. [online] Available at:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/63
3269/air-quality-plan-overview.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

12. Department for Transport (2018). Greenhouse gas emissions by transport mode: United Kingdom.
[online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/energy-and-environment-
data-tables-env [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

13. Ecotricity (2017). The end of fossil fuels. [online] Ecotricity.co.uk. Available at:
https://www.ecotricity.co.uk/our-green-energy/energy-independence/the-end-of-fossil-fuels
[Accessed 11 Jan. 2019].

Taylor Larsen 6 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

14. European Commission (2014). 2030 climate & energy framework. [online] Climate Action - European
Commission. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en [Accessed 10 Jan.
2019].

15. EV Database. (2018). Nissan Leaf. [online] Available at: https://ev-database.uk/car/1106/Nissan-Leaf

[Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

16. GOV.UK. (2018a). New powers to kick-start the rollout of electric charge points across the nation.
[online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-powers-to-kick-start-the-rollout-of-
electric-chargepoints-across-the-nation [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

17. GOV.UK. (2018b). Vehicle mileage and occupancy. [online] Available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/nts09-vehicle-mileage-and-occupancy#table-
nts0901 [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

18. Government Europa. (2018). UK funds revolutionary vehicle-to-grid technologies. [online] Available
at: https://www.governmenteuropa.eu/uk-funds-vehicle-grid-technologies/84397/ [Accessed 10 Jan.
2019].

19. HuffPost UK. (2017). The Government Will Spend £400m Building An Electric Charging Network In
The UK. [online] Available at: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/budget-2017-government-will-
spend-ps400m-on-electric-charging-network-in-the-uk_uk_5a157417e4b03dec824948f4 [Accessed
10 Jan. 2019].

20. Lane, B. (2019). Electric vehicle market statistics. [online] Nextgreencar.com. Available at:
https://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/ [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

21. Lilly, C. (2018). Public charging networks - national and regional EV charging networks. [online] Zap-
Map. Available at: https://www.zap-map.com/charge-points/public-charging-point-networks/
[Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

22. My Electric Avenue (2015). My Electric Avenue. [online] Available at:

http://myelectricavenue.info/sites/default/files/Summary%20report.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

23. National Grid (2017). Our energy insights. [PDF] Available at:
http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1264/ev-myth-buster-v032.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

24. National Grid (2018a). Future Energy Scenarios. [online] Available at:
http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1363/fes-interactive-version-final.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

25. National Grid (2018b). Future Energy Scenarios in five minutes. [PDF] Available at:
http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1357/fes-2018-in-5-minutes-web-version.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan.
2019].

26. Papadopoulos, P., Skarvelis-Kazakos, S., Grau, I., Cipcigan, L. and Jenkins, N. (2012). Electric
vehicles' impact on British distribution networks. IET Electrical Systems in Transportation, 2(3),
pp.91-102.

27. Priday, R. (2018). How the UK's energy grid will cope with the electric car revolution. [online]
Wired.co.uk. Available at: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electric-vehicle-car-infrastructure-charging-
point [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

28. Richardson, D. (2013). Electric vehicles and the electric grid: A review of modelling approaches,
Impacts, and renewable energy integration. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 19,
pp.247-254.

29. Short, W. and Denholm, P. (2006). A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on
Wind Energy Markets. [online] National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Available at:
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/39729.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

Taylor Larsen 7 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

30. United Nations (2015). Paris Agreement. [online] Available at:

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

31. van Vliet, O., Brouwer, A., Kuramochi, T., van den Broek, M. and Faaij, A. (2011). Energy use, cost
and CO2 emissions of electric cars. Journal of Power Sources, [online] 196(4), pp.2298-2310.
Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037877531001726X [Accessed 10
Jan. 2019].

32. Zap-Map (2019). How many charge points are there in the UK 2018. [online] Zap-Map. Available at:
https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/ [Accessed 10 Jan. 2019].

33. Zhou, Y. and LI, X. (2015). Vehicle to grid technology: A review. In: 2015 34th Chinese Control
Conference (CCC). [online] Available at: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7261068 [Accessed
10 Jan. 2019].

Taylor Larsen 8 682134

7156ENG Alternative Energy Systems Ban of Sale of Petrol and Diesel Cars by 2040

Appendix A: Emission Reduction

Estimated total car fleet=39.9 million (National Grid 2018a)

Estimated number of EVs=36 million (National Grid 2018b)

36
of car fleet that are EVs= ∗100=90.2
39.9

Total emissions 2017=455.9 MtC O2 e (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Standards,
2018a)

Emissions ¿transport sector=26 of total=118.534 MtC O2 e (Department for Business, Energy &
Industrial Standards, 2018c)

Emissions ¿ cars∧vans=70.3 =83.329 MtC O2 e 12. (Department for Transport, 2018).

Emissionreduction ¿ EVs=455.9−83.329=372.571 MtC O2 e

372.571
emissions decrease= 1− ( 455.9 )∗100=18.278

Appendix B: Energy Demand

Wh
η EV =EV efficiency=260 (EV Database ,2019)
mi

n EV =Number of EVs predicted ∈2040=36,000,000( National Grid 2018 b)

mi
x= Average mileage per car per year=7800 (GOV .UK , 2018b)
yr

E EV =Energy Consumed by One EV ∈OneYear

ETotal =Total Energy Consumed by all EVs∈OneYear

E EV =η EV ∗x=260∗7800=2.028 MWh/ yr

6 6 TWh 73.008
ETotal =n EV ∗EEV =36 ( 10 )∗2.028 ( 10 ) =73.008 = GW =8.334 GW
yr 365∗24

Taylor Larsen 9 682134