EXERCISE 4: Climate change impacts in a representative aquatic ecosystem: Utilizing

long term ecological and meteorological data

Department of Biological Sciences

College of Science, University of Santo Tomas
España, Manila Philippines

Abstract

Climate change has been prevalent starting from its acknowledgement from the early 19th
century. Studying the effects of climate change is a major undertaking especially for the
scientific community. An appropriate way of relating climate change to an ecosystem
involves differentiation of previous to current states of an environment. Lakes are a good
model for such comparison. The relationship between surface water temperature, air
temperature, rainfall, and the intensity of tropical storms in Lake Taal were recognized
using data analysis.

Introduction and human-caused emissions as the genesis

The earth being the exclusive domain of
every known creature, cause and experience
numerous natural phenomena including
climate and weather. A climate refers to the
long-term pattern of weather in a definite
area, it does not fluctuate as much as
weather conditions. Customarily, a is approximately 14°C. The earth’s
territory’s weather pattern observed for at
least 30 years, are regarded as climate.
Changes in climate were given attention
during the early 19th century when natural
changes in paleoclimate and ice ages were
initially presumed and the natural
greenhouse effect was also distinguished.
Climate change involves various
aspects of atmospheric alterations. This
results in changes in measure of
precipitation, temperature, wind patterns and
global warming. An official study done
during the 1990’s point to greenhouse gases
of global warming. The greenhouse effect is
not entirely unfavorable for the living state
of all forms of earthly life. The greenhouse
effect is recognized as either ‘natural’ or
‘enhanced’. The natural greenhouse effect
allows life on earth, preventing its average
surface temperature from being – 18°C as it
atmosphere allows light to pass through and
traps heat in the process, without the
atmosphere such energy will be lost in
space. This dynamic is made possible by
‘natural’ greenhouse gases. On the other
hand, the ‘enhanced’ greenhouse effect also
known as 'anthropogenic climate change’,
are human-induced build up in the
atmosphere. Starting from the Industrial
Revolution, the burning of fossil fuel such as
oil and coal mainly lead to the rise of
greenhouse gases which caused the slower
rate of heat loss within our planet. One of its
negative effects is subjected upon the Methodology
oceans, with it absorbing more than 85% of
the additional heat in the atmosphere. The
‘enhanced’ greenhouse effect supposedly
changes basic weather patterns in the
climate such as, wind and rainfall patterns
and the incidence and intensity of storms.

The ever changing conditions of our

ecosystem has lead to critical conclusions
about the longer effects of climate change, Table 1. Monthly averages of surface water
especially global warming. Presently, a temperatures (in Celsius) in Lake Taal from
maximum rise of CO2 in 800,000 years is 2000- 2011
being recognized. Making up 84% of all the
greenhouse gases, CO2 massively
contributes to global warming. The year
2015 was recorded as the hottest year with
an annual average temperature of 0.90°C.
Continually emitting an excessive amount of
greenhouse gases will give a rise to global
warming. It is being predicted that for the
next two decades warming of about 0.2° C
shall take place.

Understanding the impact of climate

change shall be better grasped through the
process of comparing previous to current
states of a certain ecosystem. A lake as an
aquatic ecosystem serves as a suitable
medium for deciphering climate change,
with it being susceptible and vulnerable to
such phenomenon.
In this exercise, the students aimed
to make an analysis from an archived data as
to how climate conditions within a locale or
a region have influenced the environmental
conditions of Lake Taal from year 2000 to
2011.
Table 2. Monthly averages of air
temperatures (in Celsius) and amount of
rainfall in Lake Taal from 2000-2011
A graph was created to show the
trends in water temperature changes in Lake
Taal based on the data listed in Table 1.
Possible observable changes in the
surface water temperatures in the lake was
measured and an appropriate statistical was
used. The reporters observed if there are any
differences between the mean annual and
mean monthly temperatures of Taal Lake.

An air temperature and rainfall in
Lake Taal graph from Table 2 was created
using the average monthly air temperature
readings per month from 2000-2011 from
PAGASA Ambulong Weather Station. It
was compared with the first graph.
A graph was created using the most
appropriate statistical tool and software that
shows the relationship between the average
air temperatures (Table 2) with the average
surface water temperatures (Table 1) in Lake
Taal.
The same process would be used,
using an appropriate statistical tool,
comparing two variables. In this context, the
average monthly temperature reading of the
whole country (which is gathered from an
external source) was compared to the
average surface water temperatures of Lake
Taal. Using the said statistical tool, it was
used to identify if the two variables have a
significant relationship, and assigned the
dependent and independent variable from it.
The final procedure required another
external source. The source gathered is the
recorded typhoons / tropical storms that had
hit Lake Taal from 2000-2011. Using the
gathered source, the number and intensity
(in terms of wind speed) was plotted, and
observations of any noticeable trends in the
date were recorded.
Results and Discussion
This report presents the development
of the average monthly surface
temperatures, air temperature, amount of
rainfall, and amount of typhoons in Lake
Taal and in the Philippines for years 2000-
2011 with the emphasis on the statistical
correlation as calculated using the Pearson’s
Correlation Coefficient.
Utilizing the given data set (Figure 1.1) ,
a time series line graph (Figure 1.2) was
employed to monitor the changes in the
average monthly surface water temperature
in Lake Taal. It is important to note that
most calendar months experience record for
all years although there may be some
months without records. Year 2009 has the
most complete record for all months while
Year 2007 has the fewest recorded data.
From the graph, it can be observed that Year
2000 have the highest recorded temperature
with a temperature of 33.64 °C on the month
of May. On the other hand, Years 2002,
2003 and 2008 have the lowest recorded
temperature with a temperature of 24.8 °C
for the months of March, February and
February, respectively. Although the cold
months of 2010-2011 have a higher
temperature compared to the cold months of
2000-2009, there is no massive increase in
temperature for the years 2000-2011.
Figure 1.1 Average Monthly Surface Water
Temperatures in Lake Taal
Figure 1.2 Time Series of Average Monthly
Surface Water Temperatures in Lake Taal
For comparison, the mean annual surface
water temperatures and mean monthly
surface temperature were plotted in a scatter
plot (Figure 2) to show the correlation of the
two variables. The linear relationship was
calculated in Microsoft Excel using Pearson
Correlation Coefficient. The calculated
Pearson’s coefficient is -0.57. The computed
value is consistent with the graph which
shows a downhill linear relationship
between the two variables. A negative
correlation signifies that the mean annual
surface water temperature and mean
monthly surface temperature have an inverse
relationship; meaning, as the mean annual
surface water temperature increases, the
mean monthly surface temperature
decreases, and vice versa.The linear
equation tells us that the slope (m) is -
0.2897 and the y-intercept (b) is 37.041. On
the other hand, R2= indicates how well one
variable predicts the value of another
variable. Specifically, the graph shows that
independent variable (x- monthly) can
predict the dependent variable (y- annual)
with 31.9% or 32% accuracy.
Figure 2 Mean Annual Temperature vs.
Mean Monthly temperature
Another time series graph (Figure 3.2) was
also plotted using the data set given (Figure
3.1). The time series graph was the most
appropriate graph to observe the changes in
monthly air temperatures over the given
time period. It is again important to note
that some months of the year do not have a
record although most months have a
complete record. Analyzing the graph, we
can see that the highest peak which
corresponds to the highest temperature is
located at Year 2003. April 2003 has the
highest recorded temperature among the
given temperature with a temperature of
29.98 °C. On the Other hand, year 2009
have the coldest recorded temperature with a
temperature of 25.63 °C on the month of
January. Again, there is not much
significant changes on the trend of monthly
average air temperatures although the year
2011 has colder temperature records
compared to years 2000-2010. The amount
of rainfall was also plotted using a bar
graph (Figure 3.3). July 2002 has the most
amount of recorded rainfall with 652.3 mm
of rainfall. From the bar graph, it can be
observed that the early months and late
months of the year has the least amount of
rainfall while the middle months of the year
have the most amount of rainfall. In the
year 2011, a sudden increase of amount of
rainfall all throughout the year can be
observed. The year with the most amount of
rainfall is 2011 while the year with the least
amount of rainfall is 2004. To compare the
two variables, the graph was merged (Figure
3.4) It can be noticed that the months with
most amount of rainfall has a higher
recorded temperature while the months with
the least amount of rainfall have lower
recorded temperature.
Figure 3.1 Monthly averages of air
temperatures (in Celsius) and amount of
rainfall in Lake Taal from 2000-2011
Figure 3.2 Time Series of Monthly Average
of Air Temperatures in Lake Taal
Figure 3.3 Amount of Rainfall in Lake Taal
Figure 3.4 Comparison of monthly average
air temperatures and amount of rainfall
The statistical correlation of monthly
averages of air temperature and monthly
amount of rainfall in Lake Taal was also
calculated using the Pearson’s Correlation
Coefficient. The calculated correlation
coefficient is 0.99796 which has a perfect
positive linear relationship. The calculated
coefficient is consistent with the plotted
scatter plot graph (Figure 4) because it
shows an uphill graph. A positive
correlation signifies that the monthly
averages of air temperature and amount of
rainfall have a direct relationship; meaning,
as air temperature increases, the amount of
rainfall also increases. This is because the
amount of rainfall depends on the amount of
water vapour in the atmosphere. When the
air has a higher temperature, the atmosphere
may contain more water vapour, thus
increasing the amount of rainfall.

Figure 4 Average Air Temperature vs
Amount of Rainfall
The average monthly air temperature
in the Philippines from years 2000-2011 was
also plotted in a time series graph (Figure
5.2) from the given data set obtained from
PAG-ASA’s database (Figure 5.1) The year
2007 has the highest peak or highest
recorded temperature with a temperature of
27.35 °C on the month of April while year
2011 has the lowest peak or lowest recorded
temperature of 24.02 °C on the month of
January. From the graph, it can be observed
that years 2009-2010 have colder recorded
temperatures than the average while years
2008-2011 have lower temperatures for the
cold months compared to years 2000-2007.
Figure 5.1 Average Monthly Air
Temperature in the Philippines
Figure 5.2 Time Series of Average Monthly
Air Temperature in the Philippines
The relationship between average
monthly temperatures in the Philippines and
average surface water temperatures was also
plotted in a scatter plot graph (Figure 6) to
compare the two variables. The calculated
Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient is 0.91
which shows a positive linear relationship.
This computation is consistent with the
plotted graph which shows an uphill line
graph. A positive correlation signifies that
the average monthly temperature in the
Philippines and average surface water
temperatures in lake Taal have a direct
relationship; meaning, as temperatures in the
Philippine increases, the surface water
temperature in Lake Taal also increases. The
linear equation tells us that the slope (m) is
1.6959 and the y-intercept (b) is -15.262.
Also, R2= indicates how well one variable
predicts the value of another variable.
Specifically, the graph shows that
independent variable (x- monthly temp) can
predict the dependent variable (y- surface
water temp.) with 82% accuracy. There is a
direct relationship between air and water
temperature because of temperature
conduction of atmospheric heat transfer on
the surface water. Heat flows from higher
temperature to a lower temperature.When
the air is cold, warm water will transfer
energy to the air therefore also increasing
the temperature of air. On the other hand,
when the air has a high temperature, cold
water will receive the energy, thereby also
increasing the temperature of the water.

Figure 6 Average Monthly Temperatures in
the Philippines vs Average Surface Water
Temperatures in Lake Taal
The number of tropical depression,
tropical storm and typhoon in the
Philippines was also plotted using the bar
graph. The bar graph was used so as to
easily see the amount of the variables. A
tropical depression forms when a low
pressure area is accompanied by
thunderstorms that produce a circular wind
flow with maximum sustained winds below
39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm
occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes
more organized and maximum sustained
winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. On
the other hand, a typhoon is a tropical
cyclone with sustained surface winds of 118
to 239 km/hr. From the graph, it can be seen
that years 2003 and 2004 has the most
amount amount of storms and depression
while the year 2010 has the least amount of
typhoon, tropical storms and tropical
depression. It can also be observed that the
year 2007 does not have any tropical
depressions at all.
Figure 7.1 Number of Tropical Depression,
Tropical Storm and Typhoon in the
Philippines from 2000-2011
Figure 7.2 Bar Graph of Number of
Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm and
Typhoon in the Philippines from 2000-2011
Conclusion
At the end of the exercise, the
students were able to utilize available data
sources for the study of climate change and
identified the impacts of climate change to
the environment.
Referencing the numerous graphs
that were plotted from an archived data
showing the relationship as to how climate
conditions at Lake Taal from years 2000 to
2011 influenced its environmental
conditions, it can be said that climate change
does take an effect on the aquatic ecosystem
since changes from the atmosphere in terms
of temperature would give a significant
change to the bodies of water. This does not
only change them but it may potentially be
harmful to the aquatic ecosystem once the
changes come to an extreme rate.

As of now, it should be realized that

from the data presented, studies and data
regarding climate change should be given
more attention to prevent further the rate of
global warming.