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Peter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615
Objectives of Presentation
Rationale behind 300, 700 and 1700 return period
maps
Basis for new wind speed maps
Basis for re-introduction of Exposure D
Basis for missile impact area
Facts About the ASCE 7-05 Wind
Speed Map
In most of the non-hurricane US mainland, the
mapped values are exactly a 50 year mean
recurrence interval (MRI)
Wind speeds in hurricane prone regions are NOT 50
year MRI values. The mapped values vary from ~50
to ~100 years along the hurricane coastline.
Wind speeds along the hurricane coastline have
been adjusted upward so that when incorporated with
the wind LF, produce a wind load having a consistent
hazard level with the interior US (~700 MRI)
2.0 WLF*1.143 = 1.828
Load Factor [VT/V50]2
WLF = 1.6
1.5 Non‐Hurricane
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2
1.0
1.143
0.5 1.00
0.0
1 10 50 100 709 1000 1697 10000
Return Period (Years)
2.5
Hurricane (New York City)
2.0 WLF*1.143 = 1.828
Load Factor [VT/V50]2
WLF = 1.6
1.5 Non‐Hurricane
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2
1.0
1.143
0.5 1.00
0.0
1 10 50 100 709 1000 1697 10000
Return Period (Years)
100
!9
88
!9
88
!9
!
90
and Long . direction 990
Site Lat vs !
e inland ! d on
Distanc 991 rne
! 991 8 ) tu
20 0
t al,
! ry e ite
" icke s
Step 3: ! el (V m of
te p 4: ld mod 250 k }
Storm Filling ! 984 S dfie V t, r
ithin
Central pressure filling (Vickery
, 2005)
! Win rm w RMW ,
982 if s to , B ,
2 B filling f {P c
98 ! V=
6 985
97
! 9 ! 985
! 96 1
! 96 ! 981
1
! 95
9 981!
! 94
3 !
! 94 ! 966
5 re
94 928 ! ssu
! Pre rval)
924 ! tral te
4 Cen our in
97 !
(6 h
! 936 ! 0 6
4 ! 95 941 96 6
97 ! ! ! ! ! 96 97
5 1 8
! ! 76 8 7 2 99 99 998 997
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !9 98 98 987 981 982 73 69 2 98 !
97 ! !
970
! ! ! 9 9 ! !
! ! ! ! !
! !
960
!
!
954
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948
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974
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949
946
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998
10
! !
993
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
991
983
!
986
987
987
3
! !
rms
95
! !
!
! ! ! ! ! !
rr or te
p 1: torm We
Ste li ze S nd RM
a
Initia ple B
Sam pute I
Com
Step 2: s
re
5 Squa
o
and V t
new I
Sam ple new value of
te 008)
Compu P c, B, RMW hera (2
te and Wad
Compu from Vickery
B, RMW
985
982 if st {P c, B,
V=
f
97
! 69 ! 985
! 9 1
96
950 981
(mb)
! !
1
! 95
49 981!
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3 !
94
930 !
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94
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924 !
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tral
ssu
re
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97 !
(6 h
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! 95 941 96 6
74 96 5
910 !
9 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
97
! ! ! !9
76 8 7
98 98 987 981 982 73 69
97
2 98
2
!
1
!
8
!
8
99 99 99 997
970
! ! ! 9 9 ! !
! ! ! ! !
! !
960
!
954
! !
948
!
890
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949
946
6
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10
0
998
! !
10
! !
993
! ! ! ! ! ! !
991
!
983
986
!
987
987
3
! ! s
95
! !
! ! term
! ror
1 10 100 1000 ! ! ! !
p 1: torm
Ste li ze S d RM
ia
Init ple B
an
W er
y = 0.98x
R² = 0.92
100
80
60
150 Right
120 Left
20
90
60
0
30
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0
8/13/04 18:00 8/13/04 19:00 8/13/04 20:00 8/13/04 21:00 8/13/04 22:00 Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Observations
Time (UTC)
120
100
Obs Model
KFMY Fort Myers International Airport 85 81
80
KMCO Orlando International Airport 107 109
60
KSFB Orlando Sanford International Airport 94 92
40
KORL Orlando Executive International Airport 87 98
20
KMIA Miami International Airport 41 34
0 KMLB Melbourne Regional Airport 49 53
8/13/04 18:00 8/13/04 19:00 8/13/04 20:00 8/13/04 21:00 8/13/04 22:00
KPBI Palm Beach International Airport 41 37
KRSW Ft Myers Regional Airport 81 70
Time (UTC)
FCMP T0 FCMP Tower 0 54 59
FCMP T1 FCMP Tower 1 76 82
FCMP T2 FCMP Tower 2 49 46
FCMP T3 FCMP Tower 3 39 43
SAUF1 St Augustine C-MAN Platform 71 65
50
B= 0.75
p(r ) pc p exp
r
B= 1
B= 1.3
40 B= 1.5
(ms )
-1
1/ 2
30
RMW B
20 RMW B Bp exp[( r ) ] r 2 f 2 fr
VG ( )
10
r 4 2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
Bp
1020 VG max
1010 e
1000
Pressure e (hPa)
990
980
B= 0.75
970 B= 1
960 B= 1.3
B= 1.5
950
940
930
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980 980
960 960
940 940
1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980 980
960 960
940 940
1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)
Pressure(hPa)
980 980
960 960
940 940
Effect of Holland B on
Predicted Wind Speeds
Wilmington, NC
200
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)
B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
150
100
50
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 16
Wind Speed Comparisons
ASCE 7-10 Equivalent ASCE 7-98 through 7-05
(V700/√1.6)
90(40)
100(45)
110(49)
90(40) 110(49)
120(54)
110(49)
120(54)
130(58) 130(58)
90(40) 140(63)
100(45) 120(54)
110(49)
120(54)
130(58)
108(48)
140(63)
114(51)
114(51) 140(63)
150(67)
150(67)
140(63) 130(58) 140(63)
120(54) 150(67)
110(49) 160(72)
160(72) 170(76)
170(76)
114(51) 180(80)
150(67)
120(54)
130(58)140(63) 180(80)
110(49)
120(54)
130(58)
Location Vmph (m/s)
140(63) Hawaii 129 (58) 150(67) 160(72)
150(67) Guam 196 (88) 170(76)
158(71) Virgin Islands 167 (75)
American Samoa 158 (71)
158(71) Puerto Rico
200 200
Audrey
Katrina
180 180
1900
160 160
Rita
Camille
140 140
Betsy
Carla
Audrey
120 120
1932
Celia
Carmen
Andrew
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
MS/AL Florida
220 220
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)
200 200
Donna
Frederic
180 180
1926
160 160
Labor Day
140 140
Andrew
Camille
Charley
1926
120 120
Katrina
100 100
Elena
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)
Labor Day
Camille
Betsy (LA)
200
Carla
Hazel
Wind Speed (mph)
150
Andrew
Charley
ARA Modeled
100 Probabilistic
Powell & Reinhold (2007)
Powell (2007)
Powell & Aberson (2001)
Dunion et al, (2003)
50
HWind
FIU FCHLPM
Houston & Powell (2003)
Goldman & Ushijima (1974)
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Reintroduction of Exposure D in
Hurricane- Prone Regions
Research showed that the roughness of ocean does
not continue to increase with increasing wind speed”
and Exposure D is valid
Exposure B
0.1
Exposure C Old Model (ASCE 7‐05)
0.01
Exposure D
New Model (Large Hurricanes)
Estimates from Dropsondes
0.0001
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Hourly Mean Wind Speed Over Water (m/sec)
110 √1.6=139~140
Implemented
V > 140 or 130 within one mile of coast