Hani I.

Mesak
P.O. Box 34153, Udiliah, Kuwait

ABSTRACT
Based on empirical findings in the literature, sales response to advertising pulsing policy
(APP) is modeled mathematically. The implications for APP are discussed. This policy is
compared with an alternative policy of uniform expenditures (UAP), a commonly used strat-
egy. The results of the research indicate that substantial savings in advertising budget or
an increase in sales revenues may be achieved for a firm using APP.
Subject Arrar. Advertising Marketing Reseamh, and Optimal Conbvl

INTRODUCTION

Many investigations of advertising effectiveness, such as those by Little [5],

Zentler and Ryde [20], and Gupta and Krishnan [2], begin with the assumption
of an advertisinghales response function.
Vidale and Wolfe [17] noticed that, in the absence of promotion, sales tended
to decrease; furthermore, the rate of decrease was constant. Rao [9] illustrated that
when an advertising pulsing policy (APP-periods of high advertising intensity alter-
nating with periods of very little or no advertising) was used in situations where
consumers had predominantly low loyalty, the growth in sales during the high adver-
tising intensity period followed an exponential curve; the decay in sales, when adver-
tising was shut off, also followed an exponential curve. From a survey of the litera-
ture, Little [6] concluded that the shape of the sales response differed for increases
or decreases in advertising.
Sasieni [ 111 discussed the optimal rate of advertising expenditure. He concluded
that in practice an advertising expenditure rate might have to apply for a specific
period of time, followed by a period without such a rate. Therefore, a cyclic or
pulsing pattern might be an acceptable policy.
Some evidence from experimental gaming situations (see Wells and Chnisky
[18]) indicates that APP may be preferable to a policy where the advertising level
is constant at some point below the level of an equivalent advertising pulse. Ackoff
and Emshoff [ 11 reported the outcomes of experiments involving the implementa-
tion of an APP. Their results, in general, indicated that APP yielded considerable
savings in the advertising expenditure of the sponsoring company. Further evidence
for this conclusion has been provided by Rao and Miller [lo], Strong [15] [la],
Haley [3], Moran [8], Sethi [12], Katz [4], and Simon [13]. Additional investiga-
tion is somewhat hampered, however, by the lack of a theoretic framework to use
in modeling APP decisions.
This paper considers the problem of designing an optimal APP. The focus
of the research is the aggregate sales behavior of a firm in response to its own APP.
Competitive advertising is not considered. The analysis initially assumes stationary
markets in which the growth and decay parameters of the sales response to APP
are constant over time, although the case in which the growth and decay constants

25
26 &cision Sciences [Vol. 16

are time variant also is considered. Finally, the advantage of APP is illustrated,
and an attempt is made to indicate how the proposed model could be implemented
in a real-life situation.

SALES BEHAVIOR UNDER APP IN A STATIONARY MARKET

Rao [9] suggested that the types of change in purchasing behavior that may
be expected when advertising levels are varied can be described as follows:
1. An increase in advertising tends to increase the consumption of consumers
who already prefer the advertised brand. Consumers who prefer some
other brand will switch to the brand advertised.
2. A decrease in advertising level decreases the consumption of that brand
by those consumers who prefer some other brand as their favorite brand.
A decrease also tends to make consumers who prefer that brand switch
to other brands.
3. The time an individual takes to respond to a change in the advertising
rate is a random variable with a distribution parameterized by loyalty;
the probability of a response (a change in buying behavior) occurring be-
fore a given time increases with decreasing loyalty.
Hence., the type of change expected in the pattern of sales responses to pulsing
is assumed to be “negative” in the sense that the amount of change in consump
tion decreases as the number of pulsing cycles increases, and the probability of
a response decreases as well. It is further assumed that the responsiveness of sales
to advertising is stationary over time (The effect of a departure from this stationar-
ity assumption is treated in a later section.)
In order to describe the relationship between sales and advertising following
the general concepts of Vidale and Wolfe [ 171and Rao [9], it is useful first to define
sales growth and decay curves.

!3des Growth and Decay Curves

It is assumed that a directly measurable relationship exists between advertis-

ing and sales (both measured in dollars). The analysis also assumes that the adver-
tiser sells a single product in a single monopolistic market and that advertising is
the major element in that firm’s marketing effort.
Figure 1 depicts a common assumption regarding the steady-state relationship
of a firm’s sales to its own advertising efforts. When the advertising expenditure
is maintained at level A , the corresponding steady state is S(A). It is assumed that
when A =0, S(O)=O.‘ As advertising expenditure is raised from zero to some level
A , sales, following an exponential curve, grow over time until they attain the steady-
state value S(A),as suggested by Rao [9] and Little [6].This growth curve can be
expressed by the following differential equation:

‘If at A =0, S(A)=C, C#O (where C is the amount of sales not attributable to the advertising
effort, as might happen in some cases)the axes can be translated to the point A =0, S(O)=C. then
sales above C are considered due to the advertising effort, as suggested by Metwally [7].
19851 Mesak 27

FIGURE 1
Mvertising/Sales Response Function

A Advertising expenditure per unit time

dS/dt = a(S(A)- S,), A >O, (1)

where S,= the sales at time t, and

a =the sales growth-rate constant, assumed to be independent of A.
Equation (1) suggests that the rate of change in sales is proportional to the
untapped potential sales, S(A)-S,. Assuming that at t = O , S,=O, and counting
from the point t=to (where corresponding sales equal S,& the solution of the dif-
ferential equation given by (1) is

The above equation gives the sales-growth curve in t e r m of the sales at a par-
ticular point along the curve and in terms of the elapsed time counted from this
point. It is important to notice that at t = O D , the steady-state sales S , =S(A).
28 Deckion Sciences [Vol. 16

The sales decay function may be derived by considering the situation where
the current sales are at their steady-state level S(B) (corresponding to an advertis-
ing level B) and advertising has been shut off. In this situation, sales would decay
exponentially, as suggested by Rao [9] and Little [6].This decay can be expressed
by the following differential equation:

3 =+st,
dt

where S,= the sales at time t after advertising has been stopped, and
/3 =the sales decay-rate constant, assumed to be independent of B.
The solution to equation (3,under the assumption that at t =0, S,=S(E), is given
bY

S,=S(B)e-@. (4)

Equation (4) gives the sales decay curve when advertising has been shut off. Notice
that at t= 00, the steady-state sales S
, =O.

Sales Behavior in Response to Pulsing

FQUR 2 depicts a situation where advertising is active at level A during a period

of time (tl) followed by a period (T-tl) in which advertising is shut off. It becomes
active again at the same level A for a period of time tl, then is shut off, and so
on in a cyclic fashion. The time axis can then be divided into equal similar cycles
of duration T, each in which advertising is active over a duration of t1 and inac-
tive ovler a dmtion of T- tl. The functions g,,(t) and f,(t) represent the sales growth
and sales decay curves, respectively, during cycle n. Initial sales are represented by
So,,, during cycle n in which advertising starts to be active. M, represents the ini-
tial sales during that part of the cycle in which advertising begins to be inactive.
From (2) and (4), gn(t) andf,,(t) are given by

and

When dealing with a stationary market, the growth-rate constant (a)and the decay-
rate constant @) are assumed to maintain the same values over different cycles.
From equations ( 5 ) and (a), So,,, +1 can be written in terms of Sea, and M,,
+1
can be written in terms of M,,respectively, as follows:

=(S~,,,+(S(A)-~~,~)(l-e~'l))e-B('-'l) (7)
6a Advertising expenditure
per unit time Sales per unit t i m e

*0
3
+
h)
30 Deckion Sciences [Vol. 16

S(A), the two sequences {So,,,)and (M,,) are monotone increasing and bounded
from above. Therefore, a limit So for the sequence IS,,,) and a limit M for the se-
quence (M,,)exist. Substituting So,,,+ = So,,,=So in (7) and M,,= M in (S), the limits
are obtained thus:

and

The steady-state curves g(t) and At) are obtained by substituting So,,,=So and
M,,=M in (5) and (6) respectively. This yields:

and

In order to describe better the effects of a,6, and tl on the rate of convefgence
by which the sequences (So,,,) or (M,,] approach their limits, it is advantageous to
manipulate equation (7)into the following form:
S(AX1-e-a'l)e-B(T-'l)(l-e-n(arl +B(T-'l))
S0.n + 1 = (1-e4arl +B(T-rl))

This form is arrived at by utilizing the assumption that at the beginning of cycle
1, s0,,=o.
Bble 1 gives the values of the ratio So,,,+,/So in the first 10 cycles for T=12,
S(A)= 100 and for different values of a and 0 in the two cases of t1<(T-t,) and
t , >(T-tl). The results given in 'hble 1 show that for a =8, the rate of convergence
at which the sequence (So,,,]approaches its limit is the same regardless of the value
t , . The absolute value of the limit So is larger in the case rl>(T-tl). For a>&
the rate of convergence is greater in the case of tl c (T-tl); the limit So is also laqer.
For a <@, the rate of convergence is greater in the case of 1, <(T- t,), although
the value of the limit So is less. The results show that the steady-state configura-
tion of sales can be approached as desired by adjusting the value of sales at the
beginning of the cycle Accordingly, if APP is implemented with a starting sales
level equal to So as given in (9), the growth and decay curves over all cycles will
be those given by (11) and (12),respectively.
19851 Mesak 31

TABLE 1
Sod+ l/,So in Different Cycles in a Stationary Market

ti = '/JT ti = '/4T
Cycle (r=.002 a=.003 a=.00S a=.002 a=.003 a=.005
n Number 8=.002 @=.005 @=.003 8=.002 8=.005 8=.003
1 1 .21337 .40548 .355% .21337 .34295 .41725
2 2 .38122 .64654 .58522 .38122 .56829 .66040
3 3 S1325 .78986 .73286 .51325 .71635 .80210
4 4 .61711 .87507 .827% .61711 .81363 .88467
5 5 .6988 1 .92573 .88920 .69881 A7754 .93279
6 6 .76307 .95584 .92864 .76307 .91954 .%OM
7 7 .81363 .97375 .95404 .81363 .947 13 .97718
8 8 .85339 .98439 .97050 35339 .%526 .98670
9 9 .88467 .99072 .98094 .88467 .977 18 99225
10 10 90928 .99448 .98772 .90928 .98500 99548
~~

Sequence
limit So 30.7051 1 18.69376 40.05792 72.70700 59.38451 79.37242

DESIGNING AN OPTIMAL APP

Given these assumptions and the model derived, it is possible to obtain a solu-
tion analytically to an optimum APP. First obtain the values of the intensity of
the pulse, as well as its duration (A*, tl*), that will maximize the steady-state pres-
ent value of future profits for a given advertising budget I covering a duration of
time T. Under the assumption that costs other than advertising expenditure-such
as production and physical distribution costs-are proportional to sales, the p r o b
lem of designing an optimum APP can be formulated mathematically as follows:
Find the values (A*, ti*) that maximize
00
Z= c e-i("-1)T[y(j klg,(t)e-irdt+e-iflj l-tl/,(t)e-itdt)- j$~e-"dtl
n=l
subject to the constraint At, =I,where i is the discount rate, and g,(t) andf,,(t)
are as given by ( 1 1) and (1 2). y is a fraction less than 1, given by y =1- 6, where
6 represents the ratio of costs (other than advertising expenditure) to sales revenues.
Carrying out the integration after substituting for So and M from (9) and (lo),
respectively, it can be shown that Z takes the following form:
=- ys(~)[
1 - e-iT
[-,-"I
i
-
1-e++a)ti
i+ a! I+ y s ( ~ ) ( 1e-ati)(l-
- e-(i+4tl~-W-W
(i+a)(l-e-(utl +B(T-Q)Q X

1 - ,-iT 1 - ,-(at1 + B(T-ti)+ i7)

I+ y ~ ( ~ -) e(-1a t I ) ( l - e ~ + ~ ) ( ~ - t I ~ - i t I
(~+11(1-e-(W+W-~I)Q
X
32 Decision Sciences [Vol. 16

Using the approximation e - x a ( l - x ) when x is small, 2 takes the following

form:
.
Z= YS(A)t, d t , +(T-t,)((l-it,)(l+iT)-Bt,)l - -A t , (13)
iT +
at, + /3( T- t ,) iT iT
To maximize 2 subject to the constraint At, = I , the solution is obtained by
forming the Lagrangean function

L= .+(tl; a, 8, i, T ) - -+ A(Z-At,),
iT IT
where is the Lagrange multiplier and
a[t,+ (T- tl)((1 - itl)(1+ iT) - @ , ) I
401; a,B, i, T)=
atl +P(T-t,)+iT

The necessary conditions of optimality imply that:

and
aL -0, or I-&,
-- =O.
ax
Solving (14). (15), and (16) simultaneously leads to the optimal APP (A*, tl*).

COMPARISON WITH AN ALTERNATIVE POLICY

Using the model just derived, it will be shown that APP could be superior
to another well-known policy-that of uniform advertising expenditure (UAP)over
time In addition, a set of rules are derived to aid in determining markets that would
respond positively to AF'P.
APP will be considered superior to UAP if the steady-state present value of
future sales revenues under APP is larger than the steady-state present value of
future sales revenues under UAP provided that the present values of advertising
expenditure are proportional to sales under both policies.'

'Hm it is assumed for simplicity that 6 (the ratio of costs other than advertising expenditure
to sales revenues) is the same in APP and UAP. This assumption is not by any means restricting;the
analysis could be adapted easily for the situation in which 6 takes a different value for each different case
19851 Mesak 33

It is assumed that under APP the intensity of the advertising pulse is A per
unit time during duration tl and that under UAP the advertising expenditure per
unit time is D during duration T and the corresponding steady-state sales per unit
time equal S(D). Equalizing the present value of advertising expenditures under
both policies implies that

from which [A(I- e-i'l)]/[i(1- e-'=)]=D / i .

Using the approximation e-x P (1-x ) when x is small, the abow condition takes
the form:

A t , =DT. (17)

The present value of future sales revenues under UAP is given by

Assuming that the advertising response function is monotone increasing, since

T > t , it is evident that at the steady-state sales-per-unit time corresponding to A ,
S(A) is larger than S(D) as (D= [ t , / T ] * A ) < A .
From (13), the present value of future sales revenues, Y,under APP is given by

y= - 0
+ +
S(A)t, a[tl (T- tl)((l - itlX1 i7) - Btl 11
(18)
iT at, + B( T- t,)+ iT

The present value of future sales revenues under APP is larger than that under
UAP if

or, in other words, if

But from (17), T / t , =AID, so inequality (19) can be rewritten as

S(D)/D
Wl; a,P, i, 7)>
S(A)/A
34 Decision Sciences [Vol. 16

The investigation of inequality (20) indicates that its left-side 4 takes the ex-
treme values (a+ai7)/@ +i) for t l =O and a/(a+ i ) for t 1= T. Accordingly, the
following results can be obtained:
(1) for a<& +(tl; a,8, i, T)<1 irrespective of the values of i, t l , and T
as long as O < t l < T.
(2) for a > S and (a-@)>i(l-aT),4(tl; a, @, i , 7) can be <1, =1, or
> l-depending on the values of t l , a,8, i , and T.
(3) for a >fl but (a-6) Ii(1- a n , +(f 1; a, @, i , 7) < 1 irrespective of the
values i, t l , and T as long as O<r,<T.
On the other hand, the investigation of the right side of inequality (20) indi-
cates that its value depends on the shape of the advertising response function. Some
of these shapes are discussed below.
(1) When the response function is convex (second derivative is positive as a
sufficient condition): [S(D)/Dl/[S(A)/Al< 1.
(2) When the response function is concave (second derivative is negative as
a sufficient condition): [S(D)/D]/[S(A)/A] > 1 .
(3) When the response function is linear (second derivative is zero as a suffi-
cient condition): [S(D)/D]/[S(A)/A I = 1 .
Given these results, the relationship between market characteristics and inequal-
ity (20) is shown in n b l e 2. “Satisfied” indicates that a range of feasible values
of A and tl exists for which inequality (20)is satisfied. “Unsatisfied” indicates
the opposite. “Indeterminate” indicates that the status of inequality (20) cannot
be known until the optimum values A* and t l * have been determined.

TABLE 2
Relationship Between Market Characteristics and Inequality (20)
(The Case of a Stationary Market)

Shape of the Response Function

Convex Concave Linear
a>@ and ( a - @ ) > i ( l - a n Satisfied Indeterminate Satisfied
a>c3 but (a- 8)si( 1- a n Indeterminate Unsatisfied Unsatisfied
asB Indeterminate Unsatisfied Unsatisfied

lhble 2, therefore, provides a marketing manager with a set of rules by which

to compare APP to UAP. The results show that APP is an extremely attractive
option when a >8, (a-8) >i( 1 - a7),and the response function is convex or linear.
UAP appears to be an attractive option in other situations.
The shapes of the response functions examined here are not exhaustive How-
ever, the analysis could be adapted easily to other shapes. Rao and Miller [ 101 and
Wittink (191 found an S-shaped advertising/sales response function (a power of
the third degree) for several products in an advertising environment. A discussion
of the different shapes of advertising response functions may be found in Simon
and Arndt [14].
19851 Mesak 35

For a=B, observe that a/(a+i)<+(tl; a,8, i, 7)<(a+aiT)/(a+i)and the

sensitivity of 6 to a variation in tl is low for sufficiently small values of a and
i (see the Appendix for details). Therefore, (18) will depend largely on the value
of S(A)*t,. Accordingly, optimum APP occurs approximately when S(A)*tl is max-
imum. Since tl =I / A , the maximum occurs when d/dA [S(A)/A]=0 or
[A*dS(A)/dA-S(A)I/A* =O; which implies that at optimality dS(A*)/dA*
=.$@*)/A*. Geometrically, this relation corresponds to the point at which the
tangent drawn from the origin meets the advertising response function, as shown
in Figure 3.

FlGURE 3
Optimal Advertising Pulse (a=8)

A+ Advert is I ng e x pen d i tur e

per unit t i m e

In fact, in the case of an S-curve, given that the firm is presently spending
at the uniform rate D, there is always a pulsing policy which is better, given that
a=j3 and D<A*. The reason is that if D is at A* or above, there is no way to find
a pulsing policy that will do better than the continuous policy D. Such a situation
may happen when D is larger than the advertising level corresponding to the in-
flection point of the s-curve. If D is below A*, the optimal pulsing policy is to
spend A* for D/A* of the time and nothing for the rest, in a cyclic fashion.
36 Deckion Sciences [Vol. 16

FIGW4
Feasibility of APP

D* I

Ain A* X

The next question is whether the continuous optimal spending level is below
A+. This can be assessed by looking at the profit function. Assume profits
= 6S(D)- D . Then maximizing profits given by GS(D)-D, subjec) to the budget
constraipt DsQ,leads to S & ) - l r O , so that D* is given by S(D*)=q>O.
If S- is the derivative of the advertisinghles curve at the inflection point
A,, given that a solution q <S- exists as shown in Figure 4, then a solution
D*<A,"<A+ exists. In other words, an optimal UAP can always be improved by
switching to an APP that costs the same. The following example may help clarify
the ideas stated in this section.
Consider the following monthly Sshaped advertising/sales response function:

75A2-25A3, As2
S(A) =
[ 100, A>2.

For a marginal profit of dollar sales, 6= .3, and a monthly budget constraint,
0 5 . 2 5 4 6 , the optimum UAP can be shown to be given by D*=.2546and
19851 Mesak 37

S(D+)=4.4490. Also for the above response function, $-=75 and $(D*)=43.
Since $(D)<$-, an APP exists that is better than the optimum UAP.
The condition of optimum APP, dS(A*)/dA*=S/A, implies that A*=1.5,
S(A*)=84.3750; thus the ratio A*/D+= T/t1*~6.For a discount rate per month
i = l percent, where a=b= .04, t1= 1 month, and T=6 months (two cycles a year,
six months' duration each), from (18) and (19) the ratio of the present value of
future revenues under APP to that under UAP is given approximately by
[+tl * S(A9]/[ T*S(D*)J =2 348.
This result suggests significant opportunities for increasing advertising effi-
ciency either by attaining target sales levels with smaller budgets or by increasing
sales within given budget levels.

DEALING WITH NONSTATIONARY MARKE'IS

This section deals with a nonstationary market where the growth-rate con-
stant a,,and the decay-rate constant & are time dependent. This complication is
incorporated in the modeling effort by assuming that the growth-rate constant an
and the decay-rate constant 0, during cycle n are represented by the following
geometric progressions:

and

Accordingly, from (7) and (8), can be rewritten as follows:

and

Set %=adl, &=BdT-t1) and substitute Soa+l =Soa in (23) andMn+l=M,,

in (24). Then, taking the limits of n- Q, gives

for (yA) > 1,

for (y/x)= 1,

for (yA)< 1,

and
38 Decision Sciences [Vol. 16

for (yA) > 1,

for (yA)= 1,

for (yA)c 1.

The limiting sales curve in response to APP is given by:

OstsT, for (yA)>l,

O s t s T , for (7A)=l, (27)

O s r s T , for (y/A)<l.

It can also be shown that the objective function Z, given by equation (13) in
a stationary market, takes the following form in a nonstationary market:

Z = Sg(r) T-A 2, = Sg(1)T- I .

Following an analysis similar to that used in previous sections, the advantage

of APP over UAP may be illustrated. It also could be shown that such a condition
implies that

In the light of inequality (28) and following the same analytical procedure
employed earlier for stationary markets, the relationship of market characteristics
for some shapes of advertising/sales response function can be shown to be as de-
scribed in lhble 3. The status of inequality (28) in the two cells ( y A = l , ao<B0
and convex) and (yA=1, q>flo and concave) cannot be known until the shape
of the advertising response function is known, after det- the optimum d u e s
r,* and A* of the APP.
TABLE 3
Relationship Between Market Characteristics and Inequality (28)
(The Case of a Nonstationary Market)

Relative Values of Advertising Response Function

(7.N and (%,Do) Convex Linear Concave
~ ~~

yA> 1 satisfied Satisfied Satisfied

yA=l, a p B 0 Satisfied Satisfied Satisfied
y A = l , ao=Bo Satisfied Unsatisfied Unsatisfied
y A = l , a0<Bo Indeterminate Unsatisfied Unsatisfied
yA<1 Unsatisfied Unsatisfied Unsatisfied
19851 Mesak 39

CONCLUSIONS

In this article, an approach to modeling the advertising pulsing policy (APP)

problem was presented. Mathematical models of sales responses to advertising were
shown to be viable tools in designing an optimal APP. The analysis was based on
knowing the shape of the sales response function to advertising and the growth
and decay constants of sales. The article dealt with a monopolistic market and
demonstrated optimization for a simple model. It should be noted that other models
in the literature (eg., Vidale and Wolfe [ 171 and Little 161) can be used to represent
the sales response function to the advertising level stimulus.
From a theoretical point of view, this study provides the marketing manager
of a firm with a set of rules by which to analyze markets and their responses to
APP quantitatively. Of course, managers operate in a world which is far more com-
plex, multivariate, interdependent, and competitive than this paper suggests. This
paper also assumed that the sales-to-advertising relationship was deterministic; the
carry-over effects of advertising from one cycle to another were not considered.
Of course, a multitude of factors affect sales, some of them unknown to manage-
ment in a competitive environment; it would be more appropriate to model the
sales function as a stochastic process. It is hoped that other researchers will ad-
dress these complexities in future articles.
It also is important to mention here that Simon [ 131 independently showed
the superiority of APP over the UAP following a different modeling approach based
on the wear-out phenomenon observed by Haley (31. According to that phenom-
enon, sales increase, but their magnitude decreases with time This leveling off a p
pears to take place at a value lower than the initial gain. Such an effect is common
in the case of new products that are purchased frequently. In his article, Simon
[13] dealt with advertising and nonadvertising periods of the same length. This
article gives support to Simon’s findings and deals with advertising and nonadver-
tising periods of different lengths. This approach is thought to be especially suitable
for established, frequently purchased products.
This study demonstrated that very little is known about the dynamics of adver-
tising effects. A whole series of questions are raised: Should the length and timing
of pulses change over time? What is the effect of different competitive interference
patterns? Which is superior, time pulsation or media pulsation? These questions
and other should stimulate further research in this vital area. [Received January
13, 1984. Accepted: August 20, 1984.1

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APPENDIX

a [ f +(T- t i ) ( (1- i f 1 + in- Bf )I , O < t l < T a n d i > O , a>O. We can

M1;a,B, i, 7)=
or, + B ( T - t , ) + i T
show that for a =8, after rearranging terms,

$=a/(a + OT[T(I+ in-t , ~ ( 2 i i2T+

+ a)+ &i+ i2T+a)],

d4/dfl= a/(a + i)T(-T(2i+i2T+a)+2f,(i+i2T+a)],

and

2a(i+ i2T+ a)
84/d{ =
(a+i)T

The optimum value o f 4 occurs at d4/df, =O. Accordingly, from (A2) we get
19851 Mesak 41

tl*= T(2i+?T+a)/2(i+?T+a). (A41

Substituting for the value of tl* from (A4) in (Al) produces

T(2+?T+ a)(3i+?T+ a)
t++=(a+aiT)/(a+i)[ 1 - I
4(i+ ?T+a(l + iT)
which is positive and a minimum, as &/d{ is positive (as shown by (A3)).Substituting
tl =O and rI = T in (Al), we get

MI=O)= -,
+
a aiT
a+i

4(t1= T)= Q,
a+i

and hence +(tl =O)>q5(tl = 7).Accordingly, the absolute value of the difference between
any two points lying o n 4 in the rangeO<fl<Tcannot a d t given bye=+(tI=0)-4*.
From (AS) and (A6).

T(2i+ ?T+ a)(3i+i2T+ aMa + aiT)

t=
4(i+i2T+a)(1+i7)(a+r]

lhking the limits of (Al), ( M ) ,and (A8) as i-0 and a-0,

1 for a > i ,

i- 0
a-0 0 for a < i ,

and

d4/drl=o,
~im
i-0
a-0

irrespective of the relative values of i and a. Similarly,

Lim t = O ,
i-0
a-0

irrespective of the relative values of i and a . It turns out that the limit of 4 is a constant
quantity independent of f l . Accordingly, it may be concluded that the sensitivity of 4 to
variations in t l is low for sufficiently small values of i and a .
42 meision Sciences [Vol. 16

Hani 1. Mesak is Associate Professor of Business Administration at Kuwait University, Kuwait.

He holds a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from Cairo University, a graduate diploma in
applied statistics from the same institution, and a Ph.D. in operations mearch from the University
of Rnnsylvania His research interests lie in the application of quantitative methods to interdisciplinary
problems-particularly in markctiig, t i n a n d analysis, manpowcr planning, university operations, en-
vironmental engineering, information systems, and criminal justice systems.