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COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
DAM & WATER RESOURCES ENG.
DEPARTMENT
Chapter 3
Estimating of flood :part II
2.Log‐
7.Stochastic normal
method method
Flood
frequency
analysis 3.Log‐
6.Powel person
method method
5.Gumbel 4.Chow
method method
1.Normal distribution method
• This method based on normal probability law.
• The flood of any return period which follows the
normal probably law is computed by flowing steps:
∑
Compute mean flood
∑
Find standard deviation
Determine from normal probability table.
Find the required flood
• Example 1
From the annual flood series of river Barnaby , a tributary of the
Brahmaputra, following data are given in cumec . Estimate flood
discharge for return period 100 years.
∑ ⋯
.
∑
Non‐ exceeding probability .
From normal probability table .
the required flood
. .
Normal probability table
2‐Log normal distribution method
• This method based on log normal probability law ,,the
flood of any return period is computed by flowing steps.
• Compute ,
∑
Compute
∑
and from given flood series
Determine K from normal probability table.
Fine the required flood
Example 2 Resolve Example 1 by log‐normal method
• Solution
Compute
Q Log Q Q Log Q Q Log Q
2949 3.469 4798 3.368 6599 3.819
3521 3.546 4290 3.632 3700 3.568
2399 3.38 4651 3.667 4175 3.620
4124 3.625 5050 3.703 2988 3.478
3496 3.543 6960 3.838 2709 3.432
2947 3.469 4366 3.640 3873 3.588
5060 3.704 3380 3.528 4593 3.662
4903 3.690 7826 3.893 6761 3.830
3751 3.574 3320 3.521 1971 3.294
∑
Compute = 3.607 ,
∑
0.1472
From probability table = 2.327
. . . .
Take antilog .
3‐Log Pearson Type III Distribution
It was Pearson (1930) who developed this model , the
procedure to computed ;
Compute ,
∑
Estimate standard
∑
Compute stranded deviation
∑
Compute skew coefficient
Then
• Example 3
From the annual flood series of river Barnaby , a tributary
of the Brahmaputra, following data are given . Estimate
flood discharge for return period 100 years.
Year flow year flow year flow
1978 2949 1987 4798 1996 6599
1979 3521 1988 4290 1997 3700
1980 2399 1989 4651 1998 4175
1981 4124 1990 5050 1999 2988
1982 3496 1991 6960 2000 2709
1983 2947 1992 4366 2001 3873
1984 5060 1993 3380 2002 4593
1985 4903 1994 7826 2003 6761
1986 3751 1995 3320 2004 1971
• Estimate standard
∑ . . … .
.
• find standard deviation of log Q
∑ .
.
• Compute skew coefficient
∑ ∑
.
.
• from table (15.2 ) K=2.35 at Cs=0.043 , T=100 yrs.
• Then
. . . .
.
• Take antilog for both side → . /
4‐Chow method
Another modification of the Gumbel’s method was made by V.T.
Chow by using the frequency factor.
To find flood of return period( ) :
Sort the data
compute plotting position
Find
By least squares method , the following equation are used and
solve to obtain two parameters a and b.
∑ and ∑ ∑ ∑
Then
• Example 4
Resolve example 1 by using Chow method.
m Q
• ∑ → . … . 1
• ∑ ∑ ∑ → . . . … 2
• Solve (1) and(2) . , .
• Then . .
• .
• Then . . .
Table 1. flood corresponding to return period in cumec for example 1
by log‐person ,log‐normal and Chow method respectively
9000
8000
7000
Log‐person 6000
Log‐normal
charegedis
Chow method 5000
normal method
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1000 100 10 1
return period
Flood frequency distribution for example 4 by three method
12000
10000
Log‐person
Log‐normal
Chow method
8000 normal method
Flow
6000
4000
2000
0
٢٠٠ ١٠٠ ٥٠ ٢٥ ١٠ ٥ ٢
return period
5‐Gumbel method when sample is not infinite
In practical field , sample is not infinite
Procedure to compute :
T‐yrs. . .
Size of Size of
sample sample
γ ln ln , 0.5772
Simplifying, . .
Then
Example 6
Resolve example 5 by using Powel method .
Solution
6635.63 , 3130.8
T‐yrs.
. .
35000 Gumbel
Powel
stochastic
30000
25000
flood in cumec
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1000 100 10 1
return period in year
Thank you
٣٠