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PROBLEM 1

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best technology of
four possible, whose performance depends on the adaptation of the workers who will
manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The expected benefits of each alternative
and degree of adaptation of the workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($).
For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,6.

Event
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410

Solution

Criterios de Laplace

P(J) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) VM


Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335 1256
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207 1275.4
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410 1313
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275 1309
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410 1350

Criterio de Wald o Pesimista

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335 1210
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207 1207
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410 1205
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275 1275
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410 1310

Criterio Optimista
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well VM
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335 1335
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207 1350
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410 1410
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275 1360
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410 1410

Criterio Hurwicz

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well VM
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335 1285
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207 1292.8
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410 1328
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275 1326
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410 1370

Criterio de Savage

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 1210 1215 1230 1290 1335
Technology 2 1350 1260 1310 1250 1207
Technology 3 1205 1280 1320 1350 1410
Technology 4 1360 1315 1305 1290 1275
Technology 5 1310 1320 1340 1370 1410

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 150 105 110 80 75 150
Technology 2 10 60 30 120 203 203
Technology 3 155 40 20 20 0 155
Technology 4 0 5 35 80 135 135
Technology 5 50 0 0 0 0 50
Coeficiente Optimista 0.6
Coeficiente Pesimista 0.4
PROBLEM 2

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA, must
plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in the day of love and
friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but is expected to fall into one of
five categories: 610, 630, 680, 715 and 730 crates. There are therefore four levels of
supply. The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to result in additional
costs, either due to excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table
below shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha
of 0,65.
Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279

Solution

Criterios de Laplace

Valor
(1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) Esperado
Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212 2673.2
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142 2666.6
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220 2650.2
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116 2622
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279 2676

Criterio de Wald o Pesimista

Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212 3212
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142 3142
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220 3220
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116 3116
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279 3279
Criterio Optimista

Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730) VM
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212 2244
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142 2201
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220 2131
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116 2182
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279 2235

Criterio Hurwicz

Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212 Coeficente Optimista
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142 Coeficiente Pesimista
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279

Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212 2873.2
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142 2812.65
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220 2838.85
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116 2789.1
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279 2913.6

Criterio de Savage

Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 2244 2393 2684 2833 3212
e2(630) 2201 2404 2548 3038 3142
e3(680) 2131 2403 2569 2928 3220
e4(715) 2182 2401 2530 2881 3116
e5(730) 2235 2366 2595 2905 3279
Event
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
e1(610) 113 27 154 0 96 154
e2(630) 70 38 18 205 26 205
e3(680) 0 37 39 95 104 104
e4(715) 51 35 0 48 0 51
e5(730) 104 0 65 72 163 163
2182
oeficente Optimista 0.65
oeficiente Pesimista 0.35
2401 2530 2881 3116 e5(730) 2235 2366 2595
2905 3279
PROBLEM 3
A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA, must
plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in the day of love and
friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but is expected to fall into one of
five categories: 580, 720, 750, 790 and 830 crates. There are therefore four levels of
supply. The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to result in additional
costs, either due to excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table
below shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha
of 0,55.
Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200
Solution

Criterios de Laplace

Valor
(1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) Esperado
Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069 5246
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057 5127
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182 5527
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932 5115
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200 5321

Criterio de Wald o Pesimista

Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069 1144
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057 1175
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182 1182
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932 1200
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200 1200
Criterio Optimista

Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069 982
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057 857
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182 1044
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932 932
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200 894

Criterio Hurwicz

Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069 Coeficente Optimista
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057 Coeficiente Pesimista
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200

Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069 1071.1
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057 1031.9
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182 1119.9
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932 1079.4
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200 1062.3

Criterio de Savage

Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 1144 982 1019 1032 1069
e2(720) 1175 1019 857 1019 1057
e3(750) 1069 1138 1044 1094 1182
e4(790) 1019 932 1200 1032 932
e5(830) 1007 1032 894 1188 1200

Event
Alternative e1(580) e2(720) e3(750) e4(790) e5(830)
e1(580) 137 50 162 0 137 162
e2(720) 168 87 0 -13 125 168
e3(750) 62 206 187 62 -18 206
e4(790) 12 0 343 0 0 343
e5(830) 0 100 37 156 268 268
oeficente Optimista 0.55
oeficiente Pesimista 0.45
PROBLEM 4
Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the players has only two strategies. Consider
the following 2 x n game:
Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 31 43 38
Player 1
II 37 35 29
Solution

Strategy A Strategy B
P1+P2=1

V esperado 31P1+37P2 COMO P1+P2 Reemplazamos P2=1-P1 V esperado


V esperado 31P+37(1-P1) V esperado
V esperado 31P+37-37P1 V esperado
V esperado -6 P1+37 V esperado

Strategy C

V esperado 38P1+29P2 P2=1-P1


V esperado 38P1+29(1-P1)
V esperado 38P1+29-29P1
V esperado 9 P1+29

Equation Strategy A Equation Strategy B


-6 P1+37 8 P1+35
Si P1=1 Ve 31 Si P1=1 Ve
Si P1=0 Ve 37 Si P1=0 Ve
Strategy 1 y 2
V esperado -6 P1+37 Estrategia A
V esperado 8 P1+35 Estrategia C

-6 P1 + 37 = 8 P1 + 35
-6 P1- 8P1 = 35 -37
-14 P1 = -2
P1= (-2)/14
P1 = -0.1428571429
P2=1-P1
P2= 1.14

Reemplazamos en P1
8 P1 + 35
8 (-0,14)+35
-1.142857143 35
33.857142857

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 31 43 38
Player 1
II 37 35 29

Strategy 1

Q1 + Q2=1

Vesperado 31Q1 + 43Q2 COMO Q1+Q2=1 REEMPLAZAMOS P2


Vesperado 31 Q1 + 43 (1-Q1)
Vesperado 31 Q1 + 43 - 43Q1
Vesperado -12 Q1 + 43

Strategy 3
Vesperado 37 Q1 + 35 Q2
Vesperado 37 Q1 + 35 (1-Q1)
Vesperado 37 Q1 + 35 - 35 Q1
Vesperado 2 Q1+35

Strategy 5
Vesperado 43 Q1 + 38 Q2
Vesperado 43 Q1 + 38 (1-Q1)
Vesperado 43 Q1 + 38 - 38 Q1
Vesperado 5 Q1 + 38
For Strategy 1
-12 Q1 + 43
Si Q1 = 1 Ve 31
Si Q1 = 0 Ve 43

For Strategy 3
2 Q1+35
Si Q1 = 1 Ve 37
Si Q1 = 0 Ve 35

For Strategy 5
5 Q1 + 38
Si Q1 = 1 Ve 43
Si Q1 = 0 Ve 38

Strategy 1 Y 5
Vesperado -12 Q1 + 43 Estrategia 1
Vesperado 5 Q1 + 38 Estrategia C

-12 Q1 + 43 = 5 Q1 + 38
-12 P1- 5P1 = 38 -43
-17 P1 = -5
P1= (-5)/17
P1 = -0.2941176471
Q2=1-Q1
P2= -0.2941176471
Equation Strategy 3

2 Q1 + 35 2 Q1+35
2 (-0,29)+43
-0.5882352941 43
43.5882352941
ly two strategies. Consider

Strategy B

43P1+35P2 P2=1-P1
43P1+35(1-P1)
43P1+35-35P1
8 P1+35

n Strategy B Equation Strategy C


9 P1+29
43 Si P1=1 Ve 38
35 Si P1=0 Ve 29
Strategy 2

Q2=1-Q1 Vesperado 31Q1 + 38 Q2 Q2=1-Q1


Vesperado 31 Q1 + 38 (1-Q1)
Vesperado 31 Q1 + 38 - 38Q1
Vesperado -7 Q1 + 38

Strategy 4
Q2=1-Q1 Vesperado 37Q1 + 29 Q2 Q2=1-Q1
Vesperado 37 Q1 + 29 (1-Q1)
Vesperado 37 Q1 + 29 - 29 Q1
Vesperado 8 Q1+29

Strategy 6
Q2=1-Q1 Vesperado 35 Q1 + 29 Q2 Q2=1-Q1
Vesperado 35 Q1 + 29 (1-Q1)
Vesperado 35 Q1 + 29 - 29 Q1
Vesperado 6 Q1 +29
For Strategy 2
-7 Q1 + 38
Si Q1 = 1 Ve 31
Si Q1 = 0 Ve 38

For Strategy 4
8 Q1+29
Si Q1 = 1 Ve 37
Si Q1 = 0 Ve 29

For Strategy 6
6 Q1 +29
Si Q1 = 1 Ve 35
Si Q1 = 0 Ve 29
PROBLEM 5
Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the players has only two
strategies. Consider the following game m x 2:
Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 31 43
Player 1 II 37 35
II 35 33

FOR THE COLUMN PLAYER

Strategy I Strategy II
P1+ P2= 1 P1+ P2= 1

V esperado= 31P1+43P2 as P2=1-P1 V esperado= 37P1+35P2 as P2=1-P1


V esperado= 31P1+43(1-P1) We replace P2 V esperado= 37P1+35(1-P1) We replace P2
V esperado= 31P1+43-43P1 V esperado= 37P1+35-35P1
V esperado= -
12P1 + 43 V esperado= 2P1 + 35

For Strategy I For Strategy II


SI P1=1 Ve= 31 SI P1=1 Ve= 37
SI P1=0 Ve=43 SI P1=0 Ve= 35

Graph
After 1 and 3

v esperado = 2P1+ 33

12 P1 +43 = 2P1+ 33
2P1+12P1 = 33- 43
14 P1 = - 10
P1= - 10 / 14
P1= 0, 714

Value of the game

v esperado = 2P1+1= 2(10/14)+33


v esperado = 34,42
R

Strategy III
P1+ P2= 1

V esperado= 35P1+33P2 as P2=1-P1


V esperado= 35P1+33(1-P1) We replace P2
V esperado= 35P1+33-33P1
V esperado= 2P1 + 33

For Strategy III


SI P1=1 Ve= 35
SI P1=0 Ve= 33