Lakes & Reservoirs: Research and Management 2008 13: 325–343

Blackwell Publishing Asia Original Article

Assessment of lake–groundwater interactions and

Numerical groundwater flow models

anthropogenic stresses, using numerical groundwater flow

model, for a Rift lake catchment in central Ethiopia
Tenalem Ayenew1* and Nardos Tilahun2
1
Department of Earth Sciences, Addis Ababa University, PO Box, 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2Department of Applied
Geology, Arba Minch University, PO Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia

Abstract
A steady-state groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) was used to study lake and groundwater interactions in a complex rift
volcanic catchment. It also was used to assess the effects of water pumping from wells, and of variable recharge rates
associated with climate and lake level changes, on the dynamics of the volcanic aquifers surrounding Lake Awassa.
The model simulations were made after first developing a reasonable conceptual model, on the basis of conventional
hydrogeological mapping, pumping test and hydrometeorological data analyses, and from ancillary information obtained
from hydrochemical and isotope techniques. The model results indicated that the lakes and Rift aquifers are fed by large
groundwater inputs that originate in the highlands. The lakes and rivers have important roles in recharging the aquifers in
some locations. Lake Awassa receives a major groundwater inflow from its southern and eastern shorelines, while
substantial water leakage from the lake occurs along the northern shoreline. The annual groundwater outflow from the
catchment is estimated to 52.5 × 106 m3. Scenario analyses revealed that increasing the current pumping rate from wells by
fourfold will substantially reduce the groundwater level substantially, although the regional flow pattern would remain the
same. There appears to be no immediate danger to the Rift aquatic environment from the current water pumping rate.
Drying the small Lake Shalo and associated swamps, however, will cause a large change in the water balance of the larger
Lake Awassa. Slight changes in groundwater recharge can cause large differences in groundwater levels for most of the Rift
caldera floor far from the lake shores. This study provides a reasonable foundation for developing detailed transient
predictive models, which can then readily be used as a decision support tool for development and implementation of
sustainable water resources practices.

Key words
anthropogenic stresses, Awassa, Ethiopian Rift, groundwater, hydrology, modelling.

INTRODUCTION These packages include: (i) river and drain (Harbaugh

The interactions of groundwater and surface waters are a
common issue in groundwater modelling. Other than the
regular recharge from precipitation, groundwater also
receives from, or discharges to, surface waters (e.g. lakes,
reservoirs, rivers). Several computer programmes have
been developed to integrate groundwater with surface
water in an attempt to quantify the interactions between
them. Among the most popular software for such purposes
is the model, MODFLOW, which simulates such
interactions using different incorporated packages (modules).
*Corresponding author. Email: tenalema@yahoo.com
Accepted for publication 25 August 2008.
& McDonald 1996); (ii) reservoir (Fenske et al. 1996): (iii)
stream routing (Prudic 1989); (iv) evapotranspiration; and
(v) lake (Council 1999). These different packages, which
were developed at different times, have significantly
improved our capability to solve practical problems linking
groundwater and surface waters.
Numerical groundwater flow models were effectively
used to study regional groundwater dynamics in the
Ethiopian Rift and adjacent highlands (Ayenew 2001).
Groundwater flow models also have played an important
role in evaluating alternative approaches for groundwater
management in the volcanic aquifers of central Ethiopia
(AAWSA 2000; Ebasa 2006; Ayenew et al. 2008). However,

© 2008 The Authors

Doi: 10.1111/j.1440-1770.2008.00383.x Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
326
because of limited hydrogeological data, however, it is
difficult to develop three-dimensional transient models
readily usable as groundwater management tools. Effective
utilization of such models requires development of good
conceptual hydrogeological models, and the availability of
high-resolution time-series data. Nevertheless, steady-state
models such as the one considered in this study can
provide a reliable foundation, as well as useful information
on the relative importance of the various components of
the groundwater budget, as well as the likely influence of
changes in groundwater and surface water fluxes.
The model simulations in this study were based on an
accurate, pertinent database developed by conventional
hydrogeological mapping and water balance studies.
Compared to many catchments in the Main Ethiopian Rift
(MER), the Awassa catchment has better hydrogeological
data. This factor facilitates the analysis of the hydrodynamics
of the area, which has well-defined boundary conditions.
Because of the lack of time series and spatially well-
distributed borehole data, however, the simulations are
made under steady-state conditions, by giving more
emphasis to the Rift floor’s lacustrine environment.
Several studies were carried out in the area over the last
two decades. The water balance of Lake Awassa has been
of wider interest for many years, initially because of
scientific curiosity (WWDSE 2001; Gebreegziabher 2005)
related to the rise of the lake water level. More recently,
however, this interest has focused on flooding events and
subsequent damage to the infrastructure of the rapidly
growing town of Awassa, which is located on the eastern
shore of the lake (NUPI 1994; Geremew 2000; WWDSE
2001). During extreme wet seasons, part of the town often
is flooded. In order to facilitate the proper design of flood
protection hydraulic structures and sustainable utilization
of the water resources, the area was studied by Ayenew
and Gebreegziabher (2006). Hydrogeological and geothermal
studies provided important information about the type
and extent of the different lithostratigraphic and hydro-
stratigraphic units and geological structures (UNDP 1973;
Chernet 1982; Halcrow 1989; Dessie & Tessema 2003).
An estimate of the groundwater outflows from the
catchment also was made on the basis of a conventional
water balance (Nidaw 1996; Ayenew & Gebreegziabher
2006). Comprehensive isotope and hydrochemical studies
also were conducted to develop a conceptual model of
the catchment (Darling et al. 1996; Ayenew 2003; Dessie &
Tessema 2003). The groundwater recharge of the entire
catchment was estimated in semidistributed manner by
accounting for hydroclimatic, land use, geomorphological
and geological factors (Gebreegziabher 2005; Mekonnen
2005).
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun
A major concern in recent years in the lake basin is
land use changes, and associated increasing water use.
Anthropogenic activities that affect one or more components
of the hydrological cycle will affect the complex hydraulic
relationships in the basin, and its fragile lacustrine
environment. None of the previous studies addressed the
interactions of groundwater and surface waters, or the
effect of anthropogenic influences on the basin’s subsurface
hydrodynamics. Scenario analyses involving groundwater
pumping rates, and detailed groundwater balances, have
never been carried out. Only the net groundwater outflow
from the catchment has been estimated, using a
spreadsheet hydrological model (Ayenew & Gebree-
gziabher 2006). Interest in using hydrological modelling to
analyse this issue has been driven by a desire to estimate
the net groundwater outflows, but without accounting for
the spatial variability of water fluxes within the catchment.
To this end, groundwater outflow sites in the catchment
were identified from geothermal boreholes (UNDP 1973),
isotope techniques (Darling et al. 1996; Ayenew 1998),
hydrogeological mapping and geophysical exploration
(Dessie & Tessema 2003).
A groundwater balance assessment was emphasized,
in order to utilize the basin’s surface and groundwater
resources in a sustainable manner. The surface water
components were quantified from hydrometeorological
records (MWR 2005; NMSA 2005). No systematic detailed
records are available on groundwater pumping rates
and water level records. In fact, among the water balance
components of lacustrine systems, groundwater is typically
the most difficult to quantify. Thus, many hydrological
studies on lake watersheds give little emphasis to
groundwater (Crowe & Schwartz 1981; Crowe 1990). To
address this deficiency, this study attempts not only to
present the groundwater balance, but also the spatial
variability of the water fluxes in different parts of the
catchment including the effects of different groundwater
pumping rates from municipal wells.
OBJECTIVES
The main objectives of this model simulation are (i) to
study the interactions between the lake and groundwater,
and the indirect recharge from surface waters into
underlying aquifers; (ii) to estimate the groundwater
balance in the entire catchment and selected areas within
the Rift floor; (iii) to better understand the movement
and occurrence of groundwater; and (iv) to analyse the
hydrodynamics, with regard to likely future anthr-
opogenic stresses (e.g. pumping of water; drying of
wetlands) that might arise from global warming and land
use changes.
Numerical groundwater flow models
It is emphasized that this study is not directed to
developing a robust transient groundwater flow model
that can be used for detailed water management purpose.
Rather, the results of this modelling exercise should be
considered only from the perspective of assessing the
relative importance of the various water fluxes on the
occurrence and distribution of groundwater and the water
budget of Lakes Awassa and Shalo. Thus, the modelling
results should be used with caution in regard to
scheduling groundwater and sur face water pumping
for various uses.
SITE DESCRIPTION
Lake Awassa is one of the few freshwater Rift lakes located
some 230 km south of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.
The catchment is bounded between 6°48′–7°14′N and
38°16′–38°44′E (Fig. 1). Lake Awassa is situated at the
centre of a collapsed large caldera, at an altitude of 1680 m
above mean sea level (m a.s.l.).
The region has a subhumid climate. The mean annual
rainfall and pan evaporation measured at the town of
Fig. 1. Map of study location (scale in metres).
327
Awassa is 1030 mm and 1975 mm, respectively, (NMSA
2005). The long-term mean annual average temperature is
19.5 °C, with the mean annual temperature varying only
slightly throughout the year. Mountainous areas within the
Lake Awassa catchment experience high precipitation
volumes and low evaporation. The long-term average
monthly hydrometeorological data for the area, recorded
since the early 1970s, are summarized in Table 1.
The Lake Awassa catchment area is contained within
an overlapping pair of Rift floor calderas, Awassa and
Corbetti, which contain the small Lake Shalo (Cheleleka),
and the larger terminal Lake Awassa, respectively. The
catchment has an area of 1455 km2, of which Lakes Shalo
(7°06′N, 38°33′E, 1685 m a.s.l.) and Awassa occupy 14.5
and 93 km2, respectively. Swamps surrounding Lake Shalo
occupy 63 km2 (Telford 2000). Lake Awassa is about 15 km
long and 5.5 wide, with a maximum and mean depth of
21 m and 10 m, respectively (NUPI 1994). Lake Shalo
traps much of the sediment transported by the streams
descending the caldera wall. Large sediment loads enter
Lake Awassa at its southern shore.
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
328 T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun

Run-off from the eastern wall of the caldera feeds Lake

6.46
4.29
24.9
18.6
56.6
Dec

187
Shalo, with its overflow draining into Lake Awassa through
the Tikur Wuha River, Lake Awassa’s primary influent.
The north and northeastern sides of the Lake Awassa

3.89
33.1
18.4
58.1

9.5
catchment consist of perennial streams draining into Lake
Nov

181
Shalo. No perennial river flow enters the lake from the
eastern, western, northwestern and southern side of the
catchment. The seasonal rivers flow through deeply
19.05
69.67

14.16
3.48
86.1
Oct

153
incised galleys. Lake Awassa has no effluent rivers.
Lake Awassa is anomalously dilute, despite being
located in a topographically closed catchment (Wood &
19.05
76.33

12.17
1.81
Talling 1988). Various mechanisms have been suggested
133.1
Sep

133

to explain its low salinity. Groundwater outflow towards

the low-lying, and Ethiopia’s deepest lake, Lake Shala in
the northern adjacent basin, as demonstrated by Darling
9.64
1.74
18.9
74.5
Aug

114

135

et al. (1996) using isotopic evidence, and by hydrological

models by Ayenew and Gebreegziabher (2006), remains
the most plausible mechanism for maintaining its low
7.76
18.8

1.5

salinity.
Jul

116

75
131

GEOLOGY AND HYDROGEOLOGY

The Lake Awassa catchment represents a Pliocene-age
1.43
98.1
19.5
71.9

7.4
Jun

155

faulted caldera, underlain by fractured volcanics (Wolde-

gebriel et al. 1990). Older faults, and recently-formed ground
cracks, are evident in the floor of the caldera, and significantly
1.61
20.2

5.1
May

enhance the permeability of the rocks. Numerous smaller

126

72
166
Long-term mean monthly hydrometeorological data at Awassa station (1970–2004)

volcanic cones occur within the catchment. The main

rocks are volcano–lacustrine deposits, acidic volcanics
2.77
1.81

associated with basaltic flows. The recent acidic volcanics

20.8
68.2
Apr

127

163

consist of obsidian, which forms the northern watershed

boundary, and pyroclastic products covering the foot of
the mountains, encroaching towards the lake from the
2.3
2.1
Mar

92
21
62
194

north. The volcano–lacustrine deposit is reworked pyroclastic

material, ranging in size from clay to gravel. There also are
scoriaceous deposits and cones associated with unconsolid-
2.65
49.7
20.4
54.4

2.5

ated volcanic materials and lacustrine deposits. These loose

Feb

182

materials form highly productive, unconfined aquifers in

the caldera floor (Nidaw 1996).
As illustrated in Fig. 2, Mekonnen (2005) subdivided the
3.88
26.7
19.5
55.8

3.8
Jan

195

geological units into five groups, as follows:

(1) Basalts of the Plateau Trap Series (Late Miocene) –
These are the oldest rocks found on the eastern and
Tikur Wuha total discharge (mcm)

southeastern part of the caldera wall.

mcm, million cubic metres.
Tikur Wuha base flow (mcm)

(2) Alkaline and peralkaline silicic rocks (Late

Pliocene–Middle Pleistocene) – These cover most of the
Pan evaporation (mm)
Relative humidity (%)

eastern wall of the caldera, south and southeast plains

Temperature (°C)

around Lake Awassa, northeastern, southern, southwestern

and northwestern part of the catchment, and the ridges of
Rainfall (mm)
Parameter

Wendo Genet.
Table 1.

(3) Basaltic lava flows, hyaloclastites and scoria cones

(Recent to Pleistocene) – This unit is found east, west and

© 2008 The Authors

Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
Numerical groundwater flow models
northeast of Lake Awassa, and contains basaltic lava flows
associated with scoria and hyaloclastites, forming small
scattered cones on the caldera floor.
(4) Recent acidic volcanics (<1.6 Ma) – This unit covers
the plains north and northwest of Lake Awassa around
Corbetti volcano and volcanic products in eastern and
western caldera floors. It is the youngest volcanic rock,
being the Chebbi Volcano products.
(5) Volcano–lacustrine deposits (Pleistocene to Recent)
– These deposits cover most of the floor of the Rift
(caldera), being dominantly derived from volcanic
materials with thin diatomite units. They form the most
important aquifers in the catchment.
Several large faults and ground cracks and small
volcanic cones can be easily identified in the field, being
also clearly visible from enhanced satellite images. There
are at least four sets of faults trending NNE-SSW, N-S,
NW-SE and E-W. The Rift floor is affected by several faults
that form smaller horst and graben structures. The
Fig. 2. Simplified hydrogeological map.
329
NNE-SSW and N-S trending faults are the dominant
faults, while the E-W and N-S faults control stream courses
in the southern and southwestern part of the catchment.
Recently formed ground cracks illustrate dramatic
ground expansion (Ayalew et al. 2004), believed to
have been agitated by recent tectonic events (Ayenew
& Gebreegziabher 2006).
Because of an uneven degree of fracturing and
weathering, the rocks exhibit highly variable permeability
and transmissivity (Table 2). The extreme faulting allows
for consideration of the fractured volcanic aquifers as
porous media in the model, with the highly fractured areas
being assigned high hydraulic conductivity values (Fig. 3).
The lacustrine deposits also are very permeable, constituting
highly productive aquifers, followed by moderately permeable
acidic volcanics, and the obsidian flows being the least-
permeable unit.
The highly productive aquifers are confined in the floor
of the caldera, and enclose the area east of Wendo Genet,
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
© 2008 The Authors

330
Table 2. Basic hydrogeological data from selected water points

Total Water level Transmissivity Hyd. Cond.

Label Locality Type Longitude (m) Latitude (m) Altitude (m) depth (m) elevation (m) (m2 day–1) (m day–1) Yield (lps) Aquifer lithology

BH1 Wendo genet meat factory BH 455 189 775 583 1720 40 1680 Lacustrine sediment
BH2 Awassa tobacco monopoly BH 444 891 775 368 1730 1730 Lacustrine sediment
BH3 Shashemene municipality BH 455 372 795 074 1927 145 1782 13 0.24 2.17 Ignimbrite
BH4 Shashemene bekele molla BH 455 631 795 769 1925 36 1889 Ignimbrite
BH5 Toga BH 447 033 791 288 1720 157 1563 2.7 Lacustrine sediment
BH6 Shalo farm unit 2 BH 444 932 778 774 1720 120 1600 2.2 Lacustrine sediment
BH7 Shalo farm unit 2 BH 445 781 777 224 1720 72 1648 2.2 Lacustrine sediment
BH8 Wend kasha BH 437 542 789 753 1710 83 1627 1.5 Volcanic sand
BH9 Awassa unit 2 farm BH 445 781 777 224 1710 Lacustrine sediment
BH10 Abela wendo #3 BH 447 560 769 845 1765 62 1727 1540 Sand with gravel and tuff
BH11 EWWCA compound BH 443 273 779 488 1711 1689 2080 71.72 2.5 Lacustrine sediment
BH12 BH 443 521 779 636 1711 46.3 1690 81.8 5.25 Lacustrine sediment
BH13 Wanza Wood factory BH 442 779 781 335 1700 50 1686 52.18 4.67
BH14 Textile factory BH 444 761 777 655 1735 61.7 1684 1980 5 Volcanic sand
BH15 Textile factory BH 444 725 777 839 1735 60 1684 3802 6 Volcanic sand
BH16 Wondo kosha BH 433 850 790 246 1711.2 83 1662 1.5 Volcanic sand
BH17 Sedine BH 439 497 770 573 1740 119 1684 4.4
BH18 W-1 Shalo farm BH 443 836 786 728 1706 30 1684 96.8 Loose sand and tuff
BH19 W-2 Shalo farm BH 444 389 787 557 1705 32.5 1680 158 Loose, coarse and fine sand
BH20 W-3 Shalo farm BH 444 329 788 916 1715.2 28.9 1689 Coarse sand
BH21 W-4 Shalo farm BH 443 190 785 010 1696.7 18 1681 Coarse sand
BH22 W-5 Shalo farm BH 443 342 784 426 1685 20 1681 388.8 Fine sand
BH23 W-6 Shalo farm BH 442 423 785 532 1700 57.5 1683 1382 Fine and coarse sand
BH24 Wondo kosha (test well) BH 436 488 790 654 1710.8 72 1671 Lapilli tuff

T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun

BH25 Wondo kosha BH 437 578 788 926 1700 41.8 1677 Welded tuff
BH26 Wondo kosha BH 437 542 789 753 1709.8 54 1677 42.9 1.73 Lapilli tuff
BH27 Wondo kosha BH 436 484 790 614 1711.1 64.77 1671 Lapilli tuff
BH28 Wondo kosha BH 435 064 790 390 1709 81 1663 Lapilli tuff
BH29 Awassa agri. res. centre BH 444 223 779 650 50 z-18 4810 266.4 7 Tuff and pyroclastics
 Numerical groundwater flow models
Table 2. Continued

Total Water level Transmissivity Hyd. Cond.

Label Locality Type Longitude (m) Latitude (m) Altitude (m) depth (m) elevation (m) (m2 day–1) (m day–1) Yield (lps) Aquifer lithology

BH30 Abela wendo #1 BH 445 381 770 562 50 z-8.6 453.6 11 Sand and gravel
BH31 Abela wendo #2 BH 445 027 770 369 56 z-22 41.2 1.2 6.5 Pumiceous sand with gravel
BH32 Abela wendo #3 BH 444 996 770 976 62 z-37.9 1540 63.5 Crystalline sand with gravel
BH33 Awassa town treatment plant BH 107 z-57 528.5 10.5 Volcanic sand
BH34 Awassa #1 (gemeto) BH 444 574 773 563 50 z-3 880 18.7 Sand
BH35 awassa #2 (gemeto) BH 444 086 772 115 50 z-6.2 501 11.15 Sand
BH36 Hospital site BH 100 z-13 411.8 8.2 Sand, tuff and ignimbrite
CS4 Tutu (Big) SP 451 992 785 880 1730 1730 216
CS23 Mete SP 445 646 770 671 1740 1740 90
CS25 Gemeto SP 444 676 770 823 1729 1729 39.6
CS26 Loke Palace SP 436 985 771 887 1710 1710 72
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

CS27 Galko Haro SP 443 002 760 888 1859 1859 6.1
CS28 Dubiye SP 448 464 765 928 1918 1918 3.6
CS29 Haisa weta SP 451 888 762 462 2195 2195 0.4
CS30 Dobe Dena SP 458 388 761 450 2672 2672 0.38
CS31 GemsoKenera SP 459 946 758 292 2626 2626 0.3
CS33 Bokola SP 430 472 758 306 2101 2101 0.18
CS34 Debub-Mesenkela SP 432 014 750 919 1720 1720 0.72
CS35 Meke Catholic SP 438 672 750 022 1842 1842 2.16
CS36 Hogiso SP 464 996 757 168 2657 2657 1.2

BH, borehole; CS, cold spring.

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331
332
where alluvial deposits overlay thick lacustrine sediments.
It is recharged mainly by overland flow from the Eastern
Ethiopian Plateau, and partly from direct precipitation,
perennial streams and lakes. Aquifers around Lake Awassa
and south of Corbetti have high-to-moderate potential,
constituting permeable lacustrine sediment and unwelded
tuff. The majority of moderate potential aquifers constitute
deeply buried, fractured Tertiary ignimbrites. Tuffs, basalts,
scoria and recent alluvium are other units of this group.
Low-to-moderate potential aquifers are found in the eastern
highland, which contains mostly welded tuff. The acidic
volcanics (e.g. rhyolite; trachyte; obsidians) are almost
impermeable in the hilly topography, and in poorly
developed fracture systems. Several fault-controlled springs
emanate in the fractured volcanics at different elevations.
The eastern half of the catchment generally gets higher
recharge than the western areas because of higher rainfall,
and intense weathering and fracturing of the volcanics.
The caldera floor gets direct recharge from precipitation,
and indirect recharge from perennial rivers and the lakes.
The southeastern and northeastern part of the catchment
receives more recharge because of high rainfall, and the
presence of flat-topped highlands with deeply weathered
fractured volcanics that have a high groundwater storage
Fig. 3. Semidistributed hydraulic conductivity map (m day–1).
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun
capacity, and ultimately flow to the floor of the caldera,
forming high discharge springs.
The discharge areas are manifested as swamp-filling
depressions, river base flows, and cold and hot springs.
The swamps around Lake Shalo are a typical discharge
area. Synoptic measurements of streamflow under near-
baseflow conditions were carried out to better understand
the interactions of the river and groundwater. Analysis of
the Tikur Wuha River discharge between 1981–1998
indicates that the annual base flow is ≈30 million cubic
metres (mcm). Several hot and cold springs exist in
different parts of the catchment, with the hot springs
being aligned along major regional faults. These springs,
and many wells, supply water to the urban and rural
communities. There are over 80 water supply points,
including deep boreholes, shallow machine-drilled wells,
hand-dug wells, protected springs and local ponds.
Conventional field hydrogeological investigations indicate
the groundwater flow system can be schematized into two
major vertical zones: shallow zone of active, fast waterflow;
and deeper zone of relatively slower flow, with longer
water residence time. The shallow systems are situated in
the upper permeable soil, sediment and weathered rock
zone (usually <50 m). This zone is considered to be the
Numerical groundwater flow models
phreatic, near-surface aquifer, with high permeability, that
supplies water to shallow boreholes and hand-dug wells,
low-discharge springs and river baseflows. Fractured rock
and volcanoclastic deposits in places interbedded with
lacustrine sediments exist below this zone. This zone is
the major unconfined aquifer, existing mainly below an
elevation of 1740 m a.s.l. Deeper underlying, volcanic-
fractured aquifer exists in the Rift floor, the extent of which
has been deduced from geophysical data and well
lithological logs (Dessie & Tessema 2003; Gebreegziabher
2005). The groundwater reserve in the deeper zones is
limited in most of the highlands, due to the absence of
large faults, and the occurrence of massive volcanics that
form the mountainous areas in the watershed boundaries,
and which cover >50% of the total catchment area. Very
deep, thermal waters have been reported in, and around,
Corbetti volcano, and the hot springs close to Lake Shalo
and Wondo Genet. The hot springs are associated with
local deep thermal sources isolated from the phreatic
aquifers.
METHODOLOGY
The widely known groundwater flow model, MODFLOW,
developed by the United States Geological Survey, was
used in this study. MODFLOW is a modular, three-
dimensional, finite-difference groundwater flow code
that simulates saturated porous media. The steady-state
groundwater flow is simulated on the basis of the following
governing differential equation, under a two-dimensional
aerial view (Anderson & Woessner 1992):
∂ ⎛ ∂h ⎞ ⎛ ∂ ∂h ⎞
Tx + Ty ±W = 0 (1)
∂x ⎜⎝ ∂x ⎟⎠ ⎜⎝ ∂ y ∂ y ⎟⎠
where h = hydraulic head, Tx and Ty = components of
transmissivity in the x and y direction, and R = a
withdrawal/injection source term.
Any numerical groundwater flow simulation requires a
good conceptual hydrogeological model and the development
of a systematic database accounting for all model input
parameters. Accordingly, hydrogeological data were collected,
and extensive field investigations also were carried out.
Well logs and pumping test records were collected from
the existing hydrogeological database (Dessie & Tessema
2003; Mekonnen 2005). The groundwater recharge was
estimated, using a semidistributed, soil–water balance
model (Thornthwaite & Mather 1957; Alley 1985), and a
conventional water balance approach (Gebreegziabher
2005). The aerial extent of the aquifers was determined
from well lithological logs, existing hydrogeological maps
and geophysical data (Dessie & Tessema 2003). Static
333
groundwater levels were measured from over 70 wells
for the purpose of model calibration. A systematic
hydrogeological field survey of stream courses was made
to determine the inputs for the river package of the model
(e.g. riverbed hydraulic conductance; thickness of riverbed
sediments; length and width of rivers at different river
reaches). Tikur Wuha River discharge data (MWR 2005)
were used to check the aquifer–river relations. Field
baseflow measurements facilitated understanding of the
channel losses or gains of the perennial rivers. Geophysical
survey results allowed determination of the vertical and
lateral extent of the aquifer, and definition of the boundary
conditions in different parts of the catchment.
Groundwater modelling involves large geospatial data.
A Geographic Information System (GIS) provides an
integrated platform for managing, analysing and displaying
spatial data. It also greatly facilitates modelling efforts in
data compilation, calibration and presentation. Furthermore,
it can be used to generate information for decision-making
purposes, through spatial overlays and processing of
model simulation results. GIS also was used to develop the
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the catchment which, in
turn, helped define the top and bottom of the aquifers. The
DEM was derived from the Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission
(SRTM) data, at a resolution of 90 × 90 m, which was later
converted to the resolution of the model grid. Corrections
were made to fill the voids in the SRTM dataset, using the
software Fsterrain and 3DEM. Furthermore, ArcView, one
of the most widely used Windows-based GIS software,
was used in this study.
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS AND MODEL INPUT
PARAMETERS
In a finite difference numerical model, the study area is a
discretized domain, consisting of an array of finite difference
blocks or cells. A uniform grid of 200 m resolution, having
230 rows and 250 columns, is used. The system is
considered vertically as a single layer with variable
hydraulic conductivity. Field evidence and pumping test
data indicate that the aquifer is unconfined, with highly
variable permeability and specific yield. The maximum
total aquifer thickness is ≈ 250 m in the centre of the basin,
where thick lacustrine deposits and fractured volcanics
exist. The thickness of the layer in the highlands could
exceed this value, although the permeability is much
lower.
The catchment is bounded by volcanic hills and
mountains, which are more or less impermeable, except in
the northwest, where groundwater flows to the adjacent
Ziway-Shala Basin through large faults. Figures 3 and 4
illustrate the schematic section and boundary conditions
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Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
334
in the east–west direction, respectively. Except for this
outflow zone (treated as a head-dependent boundary), the
entire watershed divide is treated as no-flow boundary.
Lakes Awssa and Shalo are considered as constant head.
A total of 35 pumping wells are considered, with a
variable pumping rate ranging from 10 to 385 m3 day–1.
There are no recharging wells. Water level observations
from more than 70 wells indicate that depth to static
groundwater level varies from a few m in the caldera floor,
up to 40 m in elevated areas. The majority of the wells
represent an unconfined system, as revealed from
pumping test data.
Evaporation from the groundwater is assumed to exist in
the swampy areas surrounding Lake Shalo. This is
handled by the evapotranspiration package, which simulates
the effects of plant transpiration and direct evaporation
in removing water directly from the groundwater.
Fig. 4. Model boundary conditions.
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun
Evapotranspiration is defined in the model by assigning
the evaporation rate, the elevation of the evaporating
surface, and the extinction depth to each vertical column
of model cells. The input parameters are assumed to be
constant during a given stress period. The evaporation rate
is estimated to be an average of 0.0012 m day–1, while the
extinction depth varies from 1.5–3 m. The elevation of the
evaporating surface is between 1682 and 1690 m a.s.l.
The aquifer recharge comes from precipitation and river
channel losses. Major direct recharge is assumed to take
place in all areas, except where rare non-fractured hard
rocks are present. The groundwater recharge was estimated
in a semi-distributed manner by accounting hydrom-
eterological variability, land use patterns, rainfall
distribution, slope and geology. The existing data is
refined by accounting the permeability of the different
hydrostratigraphic zones. The refined, distributed
Numerical groundwater flow models
recharge data was used in the modelby varying in a wide
range between 0.000049 to 0.00022 m day–1. The highest
recharge occurs in the fractured and weathered volcanics
in the highlands, and in the floor of the Rift, where intense
faulting is evident. Local impermeable hard rocks in the
Rift floor and the northwestern volcanic hills get the
lowest recharge.
One of the most important model input and calibration
parameters is hydraulic conductivity. Table 2 summarizes
the hydrogeological data from pumping tests of selected
water points. Ignimbrites and tuffs have the lowest
hydraulic conductivity, and the laucstrine deposits being
the highest, with average values of 0.1 and 442 m day–1,
respectively (Fig. 3). The transmissivity also varies widely
between 13 and 4010 m2 day–1. The range of transmissivity
and hydraulic conductivity values are very similar to the
volcanic rocks and lacustrine deposits in the northern
adjacent Ziway-Shala Basin (Ayenew 1998).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Model calibration and sensitivity analysis
The purpose of model calibration is to ensure that the
model simulation is reproducing field-measured heads and
flows (Anderson & Woessner 1992). It involves adjusting
and refining parameter structures and values to provide
the best match between measured and simulated hydraulic
heads and flows. The steady-state calibration was made,
using static water level observations from 74 wells. During
the course of calibration, adjustments to the aquifer
thickness and hydraulic conductivity were made, within
reasonable ranges in different parts of the catchment.
Calibration can be achieved in two ways; namely,
forward and inverse problem solutions. In an inverse
solution, one determines the values for a given parameter
structure and hydrological stress, using a mathematical
technique (e.g. non-linear regression from information
about head distribution). This technique is sometimes
called ‘parameter estimation’ and determines the set of
parameter values that minimize the differences between
simulated and measured quantities such as hydraulic
heads and water flows. The forward problem calibrates
parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, and hydrological
stresses are specified, with the model calculating the head
distribution. The forward solution method is used by a
conventional trial-and-error method, in which model
parameters were adjusted manually within reasonable
limits of the existing data and field hydrogeological
observations in order to achieve the best fit. The
effectiveness of calibration is evaluated by comparing
measured heads with simulated heads for all observation
335
wells used in the calibration. Two calibration criteria were
used: (i) visual matching of simulated contours to those of
observed values; and (ii) matching simulated hydraulic
heads at 95% of the points to within ±10 m of the observed
hydraulic heads. The model was assumed calibrated
when the fit between the observed and calibrated heads
was within these criteria, and simulated the groundwater
contours. The difference between the observed and simul-
ated heads in the majority of wells is <3 m.
In addition to the above criteria, the quality of the
calibration is evaluated by calculating summary statistics
on the differences between the simulated and measured
water levels. The root mean square error or standard
deviation (the average of the squares differences in the
measured and simulated heads) was 3.2 m for all wells.
The mean error (the mean difference between the
measured and simulated heads) was 1.2 m. A linear
regression analysis of simulated and observed hydraulic
heads for all wells yielded a coefficient of correlation and
variance equal to 0.98 and 17.5, respectively. Most of the
wells diverging from the observed heads are found close
to rivers and, in few areas, where large faults exist.
Sensitivity analysis was done to understand the
uncertainty in the calibrated model caused by limitation
in the estimates of aquifer parameters and stresses.
Groundwater models are sensitive to different model input
variables and parameters for which the model is most
sensitive. Small changes in those parameters can result in
large differences in the simulated heads or fluxes. The
response of the calibrated numerical model to changes
in model input parameters (e.g. hydraulic conductivity;
recharge; pumping rate) is assessed.
The results of the sensitivity analysis were evaluated
by calculating the sum of square deviation between the
measured and simulated heads, for a decrease or increase
in percentage from the calibrated value, of that parameter.
The greater the deviations of the water level from its
calibrated value, the greater the sensitivity of the model to
an increase or decrease for that parameter. To test the
sensitivity of the three parameters, the calibrated values
were separately increased and decreased by 25, 50 and
75%.
Based on this approach, the model is highly sensitive to
recharge, followed by hydraulic conductivity, and pumping
rate. Simulated water levels are more sensitive to the
decreased recharge values, mainly beyond 50%. Compared
with recharge, the model is less sensitive to hydraulic
conductivity, especially for the highlands. It was observed
for all simulations that the model is less sensitive to
parameter changes in the southern part of the catchment
than in the north. The maximum head change in aquifers
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
336
is evident within the Lake Awassa caldera floor, far from
lakes where productive wells exist. The variations of
model input parameters result in less head changes for
the highlands.
The model simulation provided valuable information on
the groundwater balance of the catchment, lake–
groundwater interactions, groundwater flow pattern and
water fluxes under different anthropogenic stresses, as
described in a following section.
Groundwater balance and the role of surface
waters
The calibrated model simulation results of the daily and
annual groundwater balance of the entire catchment
is presented in Table 3. The model-based groundwater
balance refers to quantification of the inflow and outflow
from part of, or the entire, model domain. In a steady-state
model simulation, inflows into, and outflows from, aquifers
and permanent open waterbodies should be quantified. In
this study, groundwater inflow into the aquifers included
aerial recharge from precipitation, and water fluxes from
rivers and lakes, while the outflows included the baseflow
of rivers (river leakages), well and spring withdrawals,
and groundwater outflows from the catchment (head-
dependent boundary), and evapotranspiration from the
Fig. 5. Simplified schematic section in east–west direction. CS, cold springs; HS, hot springs; R, river.
Table 3. Model-calculated groundwater balance for Lake Awassa catchment
Annual value (m3)
Calibrated
Stress condition Inflow
Constant head 4.46E+07
Wells
Recharge 6.77E+07
Evaporation
River leakage 1.06E+08
Head-dependent boundary
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun
groundwater system in the swampy areas. Large springs
being used by the community are treated as discharging
wells.
The results indicate that the total net annual water
leakage from lakes and rivers is 77.4 μm and 65.2 μm,
respectively. The annual water outflow from the catchment
is 52.5 × 106 m3, a value not far from independent estimates
made using surface water hydrological model (58 μm
annually) and conventional water balance calculations
(Ayenew & Gebreegziabher 2006). The total water
withdrawal from wells, and the evapotranspiration from
swampy areas surrounding Lake Shalo, is 2.1 × 106 and
0.88 × 106 m3, respectively. The existing groundwater
pumping rate is by far smaller than the available recharge,
although groundwater outflow from the basin is high.
The results highlight the importance of indirect recharge
from lakes and rivers in the Rift floor. In contrast, the
groundwater feeds the rivers in the highlands above an
altitude of 1800 m a.s.l.
Groundwater flow patterns and interactions
with Lake Awassa
The model-estimated groundwater head distribution
generally agrees reasonably well with the regional
groundwater contour map established on the basis of
Outflow Discrepancy (%)
1.22E+08 0.01
2.13E+06
0.00E+00
8.76E+05
4.09E+07
5.25E+07
Numerical groundwater flow models
wellhead observations. Unfortunately, groundwater level
and pumping test data are scarce for the highlands. The
elevation of emanation points of perennial springs in direct
contact with the regional groundwater system in these
areas is considered static groundwater levels. The
groundwater level altitude is not near the land surface in
most of these areas. The depth to water often varies
between 15–20 m. In the foothills of the mountains along
major faults and swampy areas, the depth to static water
level decreases. It tends to be deeper beneath volcanic
hills and ridges (Fig. 5).
Figure 6 illustrates the predicted groundwater contours
from the calibrated model. The groundwater contour is
more or less a subdued replica of the topographical
contours. The groundwater flow converges towards Lake
Awassa from all sides, except the northern boundary,
where groundwater outflow is evident. The large hydraulic
Fig. 6. Model-simulated groundwater contours. (A = main area where large groundwater volume feeds perennial rivers; B = areas
designated as zones of evapotranspiration from groundwater; and C = areas where main rivers feed Rift floor aquifers).
337
gradient, and the presence of highly permeable rocks,
resulted in the emergence of springs and seepage zones at
different elevations.
The large elevation difference between the mountainous
areas and the caldera floor favours the formation of local
and intermediate water flow systems. Channel losses are
common along the course of the Tikur Wuha River.
Groundwater feeds the perennial rivers originating from
the northeastern highlands. There is no strong evidence
supporting groundwater inflows to the catchment from
adjacent basins.
The lowest groundwater level elevation is in the
northern part of the catchment (1660 m a.s.l.), where
groundwater flows into the Ziway-Shala Basin. The water
level gradient in the volcano–lacustrine sediments is
fairly flat, with discharge occurring as baseflow to streams,
or evaporation from swampy areas in which groundwater
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
338
is close to the surface. A high hydraulic gradient
characterizes the escarpments and mountain range
slopes.
The groundwater fluxes from the surrounding mountains
contribute to the major aquifers in the central part of the
catchment below an elevation of 1,700 m a.s.l. The lateral
flow of groundwater in some locations is manifested as
springs with high hydraulic gradients. Springs play a
limited role in the hydrodynamics of the catchment, with
the exception of the high-discharge springs. There is a
strong hydraulic connection between the highland and Rift
floor aquifers.
Scenario analysis of anthropogenic stresses
A calibrated groundwater model can be used as a tool
to evaluate the response of any hydrological system
(catchment, aquifer, lake or reservoir) to potential stresses
induced by either human activities or natural processes.
Management actions involving changes in the quantity and
distribution of groundwater pumping from wells and
springs could alter the catchment. Land use changes
could affect the quantity and distribution of groundwater
recharge, and enhance the siltation rate of lakes and
reservoirs. The calibrated model was used in this study to
indirectly analyse these changes under different stresses.
Although simulated water levels for a given scenario could
not accurately represent ‘real world’ values, the relative
differences in water levels and fluxes can be compared,
in order to provide useful information for planning and
decision-making. The model was used in this study to
analyse three likely stress scenarios: (i) changing the
pumping rate of wells; (ii) altering the groundwater
recharge that can be related to climatic and land use
changes; and (iii) modifying lake water levels, including
the complete drying of Lake Shalo (by removing the lake
constant head cells from the model domain). A total of
seven simulation scenarios were assessed, as illustrated in
Table 4. The model simulation results of each scenario is
subtracted from the calibrated model results of the inflow
and outflow fluxes of each water balance component, and
expressed in percentages (columns 6 and 7 in Table 4).
The results are expressed in cubic metre per year. For all
scenarios, the model parameters were unchanged from
those specified in the calibrated model used to estimate
the groundwater balance shown in Table 3.
Three scenarios of increased groundwater withdrawals
were tested (scenarios 1–3). In the first scenario, the
current water withdrawal rate (5828 m3 day–1) was doubled.
In the second scenario, the pumping rate was increased
fourfold, which is assumed to be the maximum anticipated
discharge rate in the coming 15 years. In the third
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun
scenario, the pumping rate is reduced by 25%. This latter
scenario was meant to better understand the hydrological
system before major pumping started in the last couple of
years around the town of Awassa.
Two additional model simulations (scenario 4–5) were
made by changing the recharge in the catchment. The
recharge was increased by 50%, and decreased by 25%.
The rationale for selecting the different recharge rates was
to analyse the response of the catchment under different
climatic conditions and other anthropogenic influences
that could affect the direct recharge. Changes in climatic
conditions from time to time affect precipitation and the
availability of groundwater in Ethiopia (Ayenew & Legesse
2007). The dramatic expansion of the town of Awassa also
could hinder water reaching the aquifers, because of roof
interception and impervious surfaces on the ground (e.g.
roads; in-built areas). Land use changes (deforestation)
could favour more surface run-off and less groundwater
recharge. In contrast, successive wet years can result in
substantial groundwater recharge.
Two scenarios were considered with regard to lake water
levels. The first scenario assumes complete disappearance
of Lake Shalo, by removing the constant head cells
(scenario 6). The rationale for selecting this issue was
because of the fact that the lake has experienced a
dramatic lake level decline over the last few decennia
(Telford et al. 1999). There is high probability of the
complete disappearance of this lake because of extreme
in-lake sedimentation as a result of deforestation in the
catchment (Ayenew and Gebreegziabher 2005). What is
now swampy area surrounding the lake was a permanent
waterbody only a few decades ago. This change is attributed
to land use changes, erosion and subsequent infilling with
sediments. Land cover changes have been estimated by
comparing multitemporal aerial photographs and land use
maps dating from 1965 to 1998. Open bush land, cultivated
fields, grazing land and urban area have exhibited spatial
increments of 136.2, 50.7, 7.2 and 185.7%, respectively. In
contrast, dense woodlands and open bush land decreased
by 55 and 73.8% (WWDSE 2001). The final simulation
(scenario 7) is related to the possible pumping of Lake
Awassa water for various uses, possibly future irrigation
and industrial purposes. Based on this latter scenario, the
lake water level is reduced by 2 m (reducing the constant
head cell by 2 m).
The results of all the analysed scenarios are summarized
in Table 4. The simulation results of the catchment
groundwater balance, stream baseflows (river leakage),
water table elevations and subsurface outflows (head-
dependent boundary) were compared to the steady-state
model simulation results.
 Numerical groundwater flow models
Table 4. Model scenario analyses results (negative values indicate increasing trends, and positive values indicate decreasing trends, with respect to the calibrated model simulation result. The
last column, referring to changes with regard to calibrated values, indicates the results of the initial model-calibrated value minus the simulation under the given scenario, expressed in
percentage for all components of the water balance. The water balance is given with respect to the total model domain and, in the case of recharge, it refers to the land area, excluding the
constant head cells)

Change with respect to

3 –1
Annual value (m year ) calibrated value (in %)

Scenario Stress condition Water balance components Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow

1 Increase pumping rate twofold Constant head 4.488E+07 1.208E+08 −0.42 1.06
Wells 0.000E+00 4.259E+06 −100.00
Recharge 6.768E+07 0.000E+00 0.00
Evaporation 0.000E+00 8.707E+05 0.73
River leakage 1.063E+08 4.055E+07 −0.26 0.89
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 5.253E+07 0.01
2 Increase pumping rate fourfold Constant head 4.521E+07 1.183E+08 −1.27 3.18
Wells 0.000E+00 8.518E+06 −300.00
Recharge 6.768E+07 0.000E+00 0.00
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Evaporation 0.000E+00 8.581E+05 2.16

River leakage 1.069E+08 3.983E+07 −0.77 2.66
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 5.252E+07 0.03
3 Decrease the pumping rate by 25% Constant head 4.455E+07 1.228E+08 0.21 −0.53
Wells 0.000E+00 1.065E+06 50.00
Recharge 6.768E+07 0.000E+00 0.00
Evaporation 0.000E+00 8.804E+05 −0.38
River leakage 1.059E+08 4.110E+07 0.13 −0.44
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 5.254E+07 −0.01
4 Increase recharge by 50% Constant head 3.994E+07 1.392E+08 10.55 −13.95
Wells 0.000E+00 2.129E+06 0.00
Recharge 1.015E+08 0.000E+00 20.86
© 2008 The Authors

Evaporation 0.000E+00 9.991E+05 −13.92

River leakage 1.024E+08 4.887E+07 3.45 −19.44
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 5.291E+07 −0.71

339
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
© 2008 The Authors

340
Table 4. Continued

Change with respect to

Annual value (m3 year–1) calibrated value (in %)

Scenario Stress condition Water balance components Inflow Outflow Inflow Outflow

5 Decrease recharge by 25% Constant head 4.336E+07 1.263E+08 2.89 −3.40

Wells 0.000E+00 2.129E+06 0.00
Recharge 7.614E+07 0.000E+00 −12.51
Evaporation 0.000E+00 9.046E+05 −3.14
River leakage 1.049E+08 4.273E+07 1.04 −4.43
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 5.263E+07 −0.18
6 Disappearance of Shalo Constant head 3.428E+07 7.934E+07 23.22 35.04
Wells 2.127E+06 0.000E+00 100.00
Recharge 7.660E+07 0.000E+00 −13.18
Evaporation 0.000E+00 3.805E+06 −33.85
River leakage 8.363E+07 5.675E+07 21.13 −38.70
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 5.270E+07 −0.31
7 Reducing the level of Awassa by 2 m Constant head 4.517E+07 1.336E+08 −1.18 −9.39
Wells 0.000E+00 2.129E+06 0.00
Recharge 7.614E+07 0.000E+00 −12.51
Evaporation 0.000E+00 8.104E+05 7.60
River leakage 1.054E+08 4.154E+07 0.58 −1.54
Head-dependent boundary 0.000E+00 4.890E+07 6.92

T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun

Numerical groundwater flow models
Increasing the pumping rate does not substantially
change the groundwater dynamics or water fluxes in the
highlands. The major changes occur in the Rift floor, far
from the lakes. There is little change in areas above an
elevation of 1750 m a.s.l.
The largest relative change occurs in the groundwater
outflows and leakage from the lakes when the pumping
rate is altered. Doubling the current pumping rate
(5828 m3 day–1) will slightly change the water fluxes. The
lake and river contributions to the aquifers increase by 1.1
and 0.9%, respectively. Decreasing the pumping rate by
25% does not have a significant effect. Increasing the
pumping rate fourfold, however, identifies visible changes
in the local groundwater flow patterns. The contributions
from lakes and rivers increased by 32 and 2.2%, respectively.
The groundwater outflows from the basin do not change
significantly with increasing pumping rates. The local
groundwater flow patterns and groundwater levels remain
more or less the same at subregional scale. However,
increasing the pumping rate by fourfold changes the local
groundwater dynamics. Groundwater heads decreased by
1–2 m in the Rift floor. The maximum water drawdown
occurs in the plains east of the town of Awassa. There is
generally little change in the hydrodynamics in areas
above an altitude of 1850 m a.s.l. The pumping scenario
analysis clearly indicates that there is no immediate threat
to the lakes and their close environs.
The model is highly sensitive to changes in the
recharge. Slight recharge variations affect the subsurface
hydrodynamics and the water balance of the entire
catchment. The wellheads in the Rift floor change
dramatically when the recharge increases slightly in the
highlands, highlighting the fact that the subsurface
hydrodynamics or flow patterns of the Lake Awassa
caldera floor are controlled by highland recharge.
Increasing the recharge by 50% decreased the net lake and
river leakage by 14 and 19.4%, respectively. The total
groundwater outflow from the catchment also will increase
by 0.7%. The groundwater evaporation also will increase by
about 13.9%. The regional water flow patterns remain more
or less the same. The groundwater level in the Rift floor,
however, increases in a wide range, with a maximum rise
of up to 5 m in some places. Decreasing the recharge has
a negative effect. Reducing it by 25% will cause a 1 and 3%
increase in the river and lake leakage, respectively.
The removal of Lake Shalo from the model causes
visible changes in the water level and flow patterns within
the caldera floor. The major changes are in the plains
surrounding the lake. The first important change is a 35%
decreased water leakage from Lake Awassa. Groundwater
evaporation rises threefold as the lake is transformed to
341
swampy area. The river leakage increases by 38%. The
water level of the wells around the lake declines slightly,
with the highest decline being 1.03 m northwest of Lake
Shalo. The smallest decline is 0.002 m in the southeastern
part of the catchment.
The reduction of the Lake Awassa water level decreases
the groundwater outflows from the catchment by 6.9%,
indicating that the lake water level is one of the main
factors controlling the groundwater outflow from the
catchment. All the other scenarios did not indicate more
than a 1% change in the interbasin groundwater transfer.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Given the uncertainties in the aquifer thickness, and the
limitations on wellhead observations in the highlands, the
overall groundwater balance at the catchment level can be
taken as a reasonable approximately from the perspective
of groundwater flow system analysis. The model simulation
clearly indicates the intimate relation of the groundwater
with the various surface waterbodies in the drainage basin.
This signifies that a water resources management plan
must consider this intricate relation, giving attention to the
natural subsurface interbasin groundwater transfer.
The steady-state model used in this study reasonably
represented the pattern of the groundwater flow system,
and the results are in good agreement with independent
studies made using isotope and hydrochemical techniques.
The model-simulated groundwater head distribution resembles
the topographical contours. Nevertheless, the scenario analyses
revealed that anthropogenic stresses affect the local ground-
water flow pattern predominantly within the caldera floor.
Comparisons between the groundwater and topographical
contours, and the model sensitivity analyses, indicate the
dominance of the topographically driven flow system
under water table conditions, although local lithological
differences and faults form discrete flows represented in
the model by a very high permeability. These flows are
predominantly responsible for the interbasin groundwater
transfer, which was estimated to be ≈ 52.5 × 106 m3 annually.
The model simulations and scenario analyses enabled
these researchers to identify major sites of water inflows
and outflows around the Lake Awassa shoreline. The lake
receives large quantities of groundwater from the southern
and northeastern shoreline, while the northern shore is
the major water leakage zone, ultimately flowing to the
north towards Lake Shala.
The existing pumping rates in the catchment have
limited influences on the regional hydrodynamics. Increasing
the current pumping rate by over fourfold, however, will
decrease the groundwater level by an average of 1.5 m
within the caldera floor.
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
342
The scenario analyses provided important information
on the likely influences of human interventions and
climate changes on the catchment. If Lake Shalo is
removed from the model domain (by assuming its
complete disappearance in the model simulations), the
groundwater levels in the caldra floor will decrease
substantially. This will have obvious negative environmental
consequences on both the productive aquifers and the
general aquatic environment. Reduced aquifer recharge
also will have negative impacts, highlighting the importance
of protecting the woodlands that reduce siltation rates
and surface water run-off.
In general, the steady-state model used in this study
provided valuable information on interactions on lake–
groundwater interactions involving Lake Awassa, and on
the effects of different hydrological stresses. It should be
noted, however, that this model could not be readily used
for detailed water management purposes, mainly because
of limited data on hydraulic conductivity and well heads,
and aquifer thickness time series data on groundwater
levels, discharge and pumping rates. The results obtained
in this study therefore should not be interpreted as a
perfect simulation, but rather as system response projections
within the context of fairly realistic model input parameters.
Nevertheless, these authors believe that this work
provides a foundation for future detailed predictive transient
model development. Such efforts require addressing the
data gaps, and collecting multitemporal data at higher
spatial and temporal resolution. To this end, the following
conclusions and recommendations are made: (i) The
available information on aquifer parameters in the highlands
is quite limited, requiring the collection of hydrogeological
data in these areas; the data gaps on the hydraulic
conductivity must be addressed by collection of more
pumping test data and groundwater levels. (ii) There is no
single well in the catchment that has continuous groundwater
level records; thus, groundwater monitoring should be
implemented in systematically selected and representative
wells. (iii) The use of seepage meters could help define the
volume of groundwater inflow and outflow into and out of
the lakes and rivers, thereby refining the model results.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Ethiopian Geological Survey, the Water Works Design
and Supervision Enterprise, the Ministry of Water
Resources, the National Meteorological Service Agency
and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples State
Water Resources Bureau are gratefully acknowledged
for allowing us to use their hydrogeological data. Thanks
also go to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation
Post-Doctoral Research Fellowship for facilitating the
© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd
T. Ayenew and N. Tilahun
ability of the first author, including research facilities
and accommodation, to conduct part of this work at the
Department of Applied Geology of Ruher University of
Bochum (Germany). The French Government-sponsored
MAWARI project provided partial funding support for this
research. The Earth Science Department of Addis Ababa
University (Ethiopia) also is acknowledged for its field
logistic support.
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© 2008 The Authors
Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd