1.

Consider the tasks, durations in weeks, and predecessor relationships in the following
network.

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) to tm tp
A --- 4 7 10
B A 2 8 20
C A 8 12 16
D B 1 2 3
E D, C 6 8 22
F C 2 3 4
G F 2 2 2
H F 6 8 10
I E, G 4 8 12
J I 1 2 3

a. Find the expected time te for all the activities.

b. Draw the AON network
c. Determine all the paths unique paths and find the expected project completion
time using the te values found in (a).
d. Determine the earliest and latest start and finish times, slacks, and all the critical
paths.
e. Determine the path variance for the critical path and the next longest path.
f. What is the probability of completion of the project before week 42?
g. What is the probability of completion of the project before week 35?
h. With 99% confidence what is your estimate for the project completion time.

#7. (a)
Task to tm tp t Variance
A 4 7 10 7 1
B 2 8 20 9
C 8 12 16 12 64/36
D 1 2 3 2
E 6 8 22 10 256/36
F 2 3 4 3
G 2 2 2 2
H 6 8 10 8
I 4 8 12 8 64/36
J 1 2 3 2 4/36

b.
B D

E
Start A I

G
J Fin
C F ish

H
 c.
Path Paths Path duration
P1 A-B-D-E-I-J 38
P2 A-C-E-I-J 39
P3 A-C-F-G-I-J 34
P4 A-C-F-H 30

Critical path: A-C-E-I-J

d.

Task Mean ES EF LS LF Slack 2

Start 0 0
A 7 0 7 0 7 0 Critical 36/36
B 9 7 16 8 17 1 324/36
C 12 7 19 7 19 0 Critical 64/36
D 2 16 18 17 19 1 4/36
E 10 19 29 19 29 0 Critical 256/36
F 3 19 22 24 27 5 4/36
G 2 22 24 27 29 5 0/36
H 8 22 30 31 39 9 16/36
I 8 29 37 29 37 0 Critical 64/36
J 2 37 39 37 39 0 Critical 4/36

Critical path: A-C-E-I-J

c. 2P = 11.778
2P1 = 19.111

Critical path: Second longest path: A-B-D-

Answer
Path: A-C-E-I-J E-I-J
TE = 39 38
2 11.778 19.111
 3.4319 4.3716
d. P(T<=42): z= (42 – 39)/3.4319 = 0.87 (42 – 38)/4.3716 = 0.91
Probability = Normal table = 0.8078 Normal table = 0.8186 0.8078

e. P(T<=35): z= (35 – 39)/3.4319 = -1.17 (35 - 38)/4.3716 = -0.69

Probability = 1- 0.8790 = 0.1210 = 1 – 0.7549 = 0.2451 0.1210

T = 39 + 2.325 (3.4319) T = 38 + 2.325 (4.3716) =

f. Confidence = 99% Z = 2.325 = 46.98 48.16 T = 48.16