gc06 Baby Boom PDF

Future for Investors
Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel ~ The Wharton School

Milken Institute Global Conference ~ April 26, 2006
The Next Fifty Years
The Aging of the

Population
The Most Critical Long-term Economic
Issue Facing the Developed World
Copyright Jeremy J. Siegel Stocks for the Long Run and Future For Investors by Jeremy J. Siegel
2
Long Term Demographic Trends
Past marked by (1) rising life expectancy
and (2) falling Retirement Age
U.S. Life Expectancy and Retirement Age
80
Life Expectancy
76
Retirement Age
72
1.6 Years 14.4
68
Years
64
60
56
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995-
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
But this trend Cannot Continue

3
Age Wave -- US
4
Age Wave – Japan
5
Big Questions
The Biggest Questions Facing the

Developed World
Who Will Produce the Goods?
Who Will Buy the Assets?
6
19
50
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
19 -1
55 95
Copyright Jeremy J. Siegel

19 -1 5
60 96
19 -1 0
65 96
19 -1 5
70 97
19 -1 0
75 97
19 -1 5
80 98
19 -1 0
85 98
19 -1 5
90 99
19 -1 0
95 99
20 -2 5
00 00
`
20 -2 0
Life
Age
05 00
20 -2 5
Expectancy
Retirement
10 01
20 -2 0
15 01
20 -2 5
14.4
20 02
20 -2 0
Years
25 02
20 -2 5
30 03
20 -2 0
35 03
20 -2 5
40 04
20 -2 0
45 04
-2 5
9.2
05
Retirement Age must rise dramatically
0
Years
Stocks for the Long Run and Future For Investors by Jeremy J. Siegel
7
Productivity Growth and Retirement
Can faster productivity growth help the

Aging Problem?
Let us be extraordinarily optimistic and
assume future productivity growth
averages 3 ½ % per year, 70% above
long term average of 2.2%.
8
3.5% Productivity reduces retirement age 2-3 years

88
84 Life
Expectancy
80
76
72
68 Retirement
` 3.5%
Age Productivity
64
60
56
19 5-1 55
19 -1 0
19 -1 5
19 0-1 90
20 -2 5
19 -1 0
19 5-1 65
20 0-2 10
20 -2 5
20 -2 0
20 -2 5
20 -2 5
20 -2 0
19 -1 0
19 -1 5
-2 5
20 0-2 00
20 -2 5
20 -2 0
0
70 97
75 9 7
95 9 9
15 01
20 0 2
25 0 2
35 03
40 04
45 0 4
60 96
80 98
8 5 98
05 00
3 0 03
05
1 0
5 9
6 9
9 9
0 0
19 0-1
5
19
9
Immigration?
The number of immigrants to the US

over the next 45 years needed to keep
the retirement age in the mid 60s would
be about one-half billion, far in excess
of the current population.
10
But there is Hope
Outside the developed countries,

the population of the world is much
younger.
Let’s look at India.
11
Age Wave -- India
12
Trade Deficits and Aging
Throughout history, the “old” have sold
assets to the young in exchange for
goods.
Today in US, Florida’s retirees sell
assets to and import goods from other
49 states.
In the future the US will sell its assets
to the rest of the world.
Success depends on rapid growth in the
developing world.
13
Population 2000 World GDP 2000
15.2% Sub- 56.4%
Saharan
Indonesia
Africa
U.S. Western Low Income 1%
Japan 2%
Indonesia 4.68% Europe 5%
6.41% 2.10%
3.50% U.S.
Sub- Mid Income
22%
Saharan Canada 5%
Africa 0.51%
Eastern
10.74% Europe
Aus / NZ 5%
0.38%
Low Income
Latin
13.64%
Am/Carib
8%
Hi Inc. Western
nonOECD India Europe
Mid Income 1.12% 5% 21%
5.63%
China China Japan

Eastern 21.05% 11% 8%
Europe
5.02% India Canada
Latin 16.66%
Am/Carib Hi Inc. 2%
Aus / NZ
8.57% nonOECD
1%
4%
84.8% 44.6%
14
Population 2050 World GDP 2050
11.8% 23.1%
Western
Western Japan U.S.
Indonesia Europe Japan
U.S. Europe 1.17% Sub- 11%
3% 6% 2%
4.26% 3.76% Saharan
Indonesia Africa
Canada Canada
3.34% 7%
0.43% 1%
Aus / NZ
Sub- Low Income
0.33% Aus / NZ
Saharan 10%
Africa 1%
18.88%
Hi Inc. Mid Income Hi Inc.
nonOECD 6% nonOECD
1.32%
3%
Low Income China Eastern
17.38% 15.68% Europe China
3% 20%
Mid Income India India

5.54% 16.86% Latin 16%
Latin
Am/Carib
Eastern Am/Carib
11%
Europe 8.64% 76.9%
88.2% 2.39%
15
Per Capita Income Per Capita Income
Relative to US 2000 Relative to US 2050
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S. U.S.
Western Europe Western Europe
Japan Japan
Canada Canada
Aus / NZ Aus / NZ
Hi Inc. nonOECD Hi Inc. nonOECD
China China
India India
Latin Am/Carib Latin Am/Carib
Eastern Europe Eastern Europe
Mid Income Mid Income
Low Income Low Income
Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
Indonesia Indonesia
19
5
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
19 0-1
55 95
1 9 -1 5
60 96
1 9 -1 0
Copyright Jeremy J. Siegel

65 96
1 9 -1 5
70 97
1 9 -1 0
75 97
1 9 -1 5
80 98
1 9 -1 0
85 98
1 9 -1 5
90 99
1 9 -1 0
95 99
2 0 -2 5
00 00
2 0 -2 0
`
Age
05 00
2 0 -2 5
Retirement
10 01
2 0 -2 0
15 01
2 0 -2 5
20 02
2 0 -2 0
Life
25 02
2 0 -2 5
Expectancy
30 03
2 0 -2 0
35 03
2 0 -2 5
40 04
2 0 -2 0
45 04
-2 5
Growth
05
Developing
0
Countries High
Retirement Age with high growth in LDCs
Stocks for the Long Run and Future For Investors by Jeremy J. Siegel
17
The Global Solution
The answer to our question:

Who will produce our goods?
Who will buy our assets?
Is the same:
The Developing Countries
By the middle of this century Developing
Countries will
own most of world’s capital.
18
Stock Market Stock Market
Capitalization 2000 Capitalization 2050
33.0%
7.7% Eastern
92.3%
Mid Income
Latin Europe 0.53%
1.14% Sub-
Am/Carib
Low Income Saharan
2.00%
0.53% Africa
India Low Income Indonesia
Sub- 4.23%
1.90% 6.37% 2.36%
Saharan
China
Africa
1.19%
0.38% Mid Income U.S.
Hi Inc. Indonesia 5.56% 16.59%
nonOECD 0.03%
5.30%
Eastern Western
Aus / NZ Europe Europe
2.08% 3.43% 8.84%
Japan
Canada 2.64%
2.99%
Latin
U.S. Canada
Am/Carib
41.21% 1.11%
10.62%
Japan
14.82%
Aus / NZ
India
Hi Inc. 0.72%
14.06% China
20.33% nonOECD
Western 67.0% 3.15%
Europe
25.88%
19
New Professors interviewed at Wharton in 2006
Wharton Finance Department Recruitment Seminar Schedule: January - March 2006

Day Date Type Candidate School Where From?
Thursday 12-Jan MICRO Pavel Savor Harvard Canadian from Latin America
Tuesday 17-Jan MACRO Virgiliu Midrigan Ohio State Moldova
Thursday 19-Jan MICRO Camelia Kuhnen Stanford Romania
Thursday 26-Jan MICRO Vito Gala Chicago Italian
Tuesday 31-Jan MACRO Emmanuel Farhi MIT French from N. Africa
Thursday 2-Feb MICRO Gustavo Manso Stanford Brazil
Tuesday 7-Feb MACRO Santiago Bazdresch Yale Mexico
Thursday 9-Feb MICRO Zhi Da Northwestern Singapore
Tuesday 14-Feb MICRO Gustav Sigurdsson Princeton Iceland
Thursday 16-Feb MICRO Jan Schneider British Columbia Germany
Tuesday 21-Feb MICRO Peter Kondor London Economics Budapest/Hungary
Thursday 23-Feb MICRO Dana Kiku Duke Ukraine
Thursday 2-Mar MICRO Yuri Tserlukevich UC Berkeley - Haas Belarus
20
Baby Boom, Baby Bomb?
Milken Institute Global Conference

April 26, 2006
Michael Milken
Chairman, Milken Institute
Sources of Demand for Health Care
• Developing world: Growing middle class
• Developed world: Chronologically aging

population
World Geographic Shares
and Population Shares
Land: 8%
Pop: 10%
Land: 29%
Pop: 61%
Land: 19%
Pop: 7%
Land: 14% Land: 24%

Pop: 7.5% Pop: 14% Land: 6%
Pop: 0.5%
Economic Shares From GDP, 2005
North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z.

35% 4% 28% 1.6% 30% 1.4%
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Economic Shares from GDP, 2030
North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z.

25% 3% 12.5% 0.7% 58% 0.8%
Top 10 Leading Economies in 2050
Current GDP GDP Per Capita

Country
(US$ Trillion) (US$)
China 44.5 31,357
United States 35.2 83,710
India 27.8 17,366
Japan 6.7 66,805
Brazil 6.1 26,592
Russia 5.9 49,646
United Kingdom 3.8 59,122
Germany 3.6 48,952
France 3.1 51,594
Italy 2.1 40,901
Top 10 Leading Economies
1820 vs. 2005
1820, Share of World Total 2005, Share of World Total

GDP Population GDP Populations
China 28.7 35.7 U.S. 28.4 4.6

India 16.0 19.6 Japan 10.6 2.0
France 5.4 2.9 Germany 6.4 1.3
U.K. 5.2 2.0 U.K. 5.0 0.9
Prussia 4.9 4.2 France 4.8 0.9
Japan 3.1 2.9 China 4.4 20.4
Austria-Hungary 1.9 1.3 Italy 3.9 0.9
Spain 1.9 1.1 Spain 2.6 0.7
U.S. 1.8 0.9 Canada 2.5 0.5
Russia 1.7 1.1 Korea 1.8 0.7
Top Ten Total 70.6 71.7 Top Ten Total 70.4 32.9
Most Wealth Was Created in Last 200 Years
Can we continue this trend for another 200 years?
Renaissance/ Industrial
Enlightenment Revolution
Real Per-Capita Output (in U.S. dollars)
20,000 Bronze Iron Classical/ Middle

Age Age Roman Ages
18,000
Period (Feudalism)
16,000
14,000 Population hits
Population
12,000 hits 3 billion 6 billion
Population
10,000
hits 0.5 billion
8,000 Population
hits 0.1 billion Population
6,000 hits 0.3 billion
4,000 Population hits
Egyptian Holy Roman Nation 1 billion
2,000 Empire Empire States
2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 1750 2000

BCE BCE BCE BCE
Time
Wealth and Technology
Stem Cell WWW

Real Per-Capita Output (in U.S. dollars)
20,000 Research
Super Computer
18,000
CAT Scanning Hubble
16,000 Computer Operating System Telescope
Minicomputer
14,000 Commercial Satellite Barcode
12,000 Penicillin CD
10,000 Plastic Circuit
Gas-Powered Car Integrator
8,000
Metallurgy Structural Steel TV
6,000 Bridge
Ceramics Paper Airplane
4,000 Telescope Telegraph
Printing Press Cotton Gin
2,000
Eyeglasses
2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 1750 2000

BCE BCE BCE BCE
Time
In 1900, 40 million Americans lived
on farms and fed 76 million domestically
plus 15 million people outside the U.S.
In 1900, 40 million Americans lived
on farms and fed 76 million domestically
plus 15 million people outside the U.S.
Each farm person fed about two others.

In 2000, 1.5 million Americans lived
on farms and fed 290 million
domestically plus 220 million others
In 2000, 1.5 million Americans lived
on farms and fed 290 million
domestically plus 220 million others
Each farm person fed about 340 others!

On Everything New
“Everything that can be

invented has been invented.”
Charles H. Duell
Commission of U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
The iPod has 7,500 times the storage
capacity of IBM’s largest computer in 1976
The cost-per-megabyte of
the IBM computer is 143
million times the iPod.
The Cell Chip by IBM
2 trillion calculations per second
Estimated Cost of Sequencing a Gene
• 1974 >$100,000,000
• 1998 $150
• 2002 $9
• 2006 $3
• 2013 $0.03
(That’s faster than Moore’s Law.)
Source:
Source: Dr.
Dr. David
David Agus-Cedars-Sinai;
Agus-Cedars-Sinai; Dr.
Dr. Leroy
Leroy Hood,
Hood, Institute
Institute for
for Systems
Systems Biology
Biology
Lifestyle Affects Quality of Life
U.S. vs. Japan
Life Expectancy
67.6 9.4
Disabled
Healthy years
years
73.6 7.7
Share of Men in Fair or Poor Health
Slide courtesy of David Wise, Harvard University

Age of Mortality Milestones for Men, 1940-2000
65-Year-Olds in 2000 Same as 59-Year-Olds in 1970
75
75
70
70
Age When Mortality Risk Reaches 4%
65
65

Age
Age
60
60
55
55

50
50
45
45
1930
1930 1940
1940 1950
1950 1960
1960 1970
1970 1980
1980 1990
1990 2000
2000 2010
2010
Year
Year
Source: John Shoven, Stanford University
Age of Mortality Milestones for Women, 1940-2000
63-Year-Olds in 2000 Same as 59-Year-Olds in 1970
80
80
75
75
70
70
Age
Age
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
1930
1930 1940
1940 1950
1950 1960
1960 1970
1970 1980
1980 1990
1990 2000
2000 2010
2010
Year
Year
Source: John Shoven, Stanford University
Source: Richard Sprott, Ellison Medical Foundation
Source: Richard Sprott, Ellison Medical Foundation
“Improvements in life expectancy
alone added approximately $2.6
trillion per year … to national wealth
over the 1970-1998 period.”
Kevin Murphy and Robert Topel
“The Economic Value of Medical Research”
Source: Research America

Economic Value of Eliminating Deaths
$57T
$50T $48.4T
$46.5T
BALANCE SHEET
40
DISEASE
2 0 0 4 U.S.
HEART
30 CANCER
20
10 $7.6T $7.5T
STROKE AIDS
Source: Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel/University of Chicago

The number of cancer deaths
in the U.S. dropped slightly in
2003, the first decline in
more than 70 years.
-American Cancer Society

February 9, 2006
P=ΣFti*(ΣHCi+ΣSCi+ΣRAi)
P = Prosperity
Ft = Financial Technology
HC = Human Capital
SC = Social Capital
RA = Real Assets
America Goes to Work
U.S. and Fortune 500 Employment
200
U.S. = +62 million jobs
180
160
140
120
100
80
Fortune 500 = minus 4 million
60
70 75 80 85 90 95 00
Index 1970 = 100

America Goes to Work
U.S. and Fortune 500 Employment
200
U.S. = +62 million jobs
180
New financial
160 technologies are
140
fully implemented
120
100
80
Fortune 500 = minus 4 million
60
70 75 80 85 90 95 00
Index 1970 = 100

Job Creation Since 1970
170
160
150
United States
140
130
120
110
Western Europe
100
90
70 75 80 85 90 95
Index
Index 1970=100
1970=100
U.K. Teaches a Lesson
Unemployment: U.K., France, Germany, Italy
Percent
14
France, Germany, Italy (Avg.)
12
10
4
United Kingdom
2
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Hernando de Soto
President
Instituto Libertad y Democracia
“For the past 30 years the poor in

most places have been more
interested in becoming
entrepreneurs than
revolutionaries.”
Source: New York Times

Dead Capital
Egypt Mexico
Dead Capital: $241 billion Dead Capital: $315 billion
Equity Market Equity Market

Capitalization: $20.9 billion Capitalization: $91.5 billion
Housing Price Change, 1997-2004
% change, 1997-2004
280
Total value of residential

210
property in developing countries
increased by $20 trillion in the
140 past 3 years.
70
-70
Irel Spa Fra Neth Itl NZ Can Jap
S Afr UK Aus Swe USA Belg Den Swit HK
Mortgage Rate and Mortgages
Outstanding
Percent US$ Trillions
10 12.5
30-years fixed $11.9 trillions
mortgage rate total mortgages
9 outstanding 10.8
8 9.0
7 7.3
6 5.5
5 3.8
4 2.0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Capital Access Index 2005
Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital
Max = 10
9.0
United Kingdom
8.5
Hong Kong Czech Republic
8.0
U.S.
7.5 China
7.0
Brazil
6.5
Russia
6.0
5.5
India
5.0
4.5
4.0
World Equity Market Performance
Top
Top 10
10 USD
USD Adjusted
Adjusted Returns,
Returns, 2005
2005
Percent
Percent Change,
Change, Year
Year Ago
Ago
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
UAE Lebanon Jordan Kuwait Iceland
Egypt Colombia S. Arabia Russia Qatar
Rate-of-Return Concerns
How to Save $1-Million in 40 Years
$25,000-a-year @ 0%
$6,642-a-year @ 6%
$1,304-a-year @ 12%
(or a one-time investment of $10,747)
Effect of Changes in
Actuarial Assumptions
$100 invested over 30 years
20% $ 23,738
14% $ 5,095
12% $ 2,996
10% $ 1,745
8% $ 1,006
6% $ 574
March 2006
Good news! It appears you older
workers are valuable after all!
Copyright: John Ditchburn

Percentage Change in U.S. Population
By Age Group, 2000 to 2025
100
80%
80
67%
60
40
14% 14%
20
0
-1%
-20
0 - 17 18 - 34 35 - 54 55 - 64 65+
[Some of the following
slides were used
during the
conversation.]
Nelson Mandela, 87
Elected president of South Africa
at age 76.
Kirk Kerkorian - 88
Winston Churchill
British Prime Minister at age 71
Member of Parliament to age 90
Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.
Served as Supreme Court Justice until age 90
Dr. Armand Hammer
Founded the Armand Hammer Museum
of Art and Cultural Center in Los
Angeles in 1990 at age 92
Siberia
How about Oslo?
How about Oslo?
Average January Temperature:

How about Oslo?
Average January Temperature:

19 ◦
Dubai?
Dubai?
Average July Temperature:

Dubai?
Average July Temperature:

103 ◦
Los Angeles
Year-round average temperature:

65 ◦
U.S. Reading Skills in Urban Districts
% of 4th Graders Below “Basic” Levels
District of Columbia 69%

Los Angeles 65%
Atlanta 63%
Chicago 60%
Houston 52%
New York City 47%
Central City 45%
National Public 38%
10% 30% 50% 70%
Source: NAEP 2004
Growth in Number of
Chinese College Students
1978 2005
1.4% of college- 20% of college-
age population age population
was enrolled in enrolled in
college. college.
Source: China’s Ministry of Education

Water Crisis in the Developing World
(2000-2015)
• 3 billion people – ½ the world’s population
– will live in “water-stressed” countries.
• Water tables are dropping dramatically
• 5 feet per year in Northern China
• 3-10 feet per year in India
• More than 30 nations get water from
outside their borders.
• Over-pumping groundwater will increase
political tension.
Global
Global Trends
Trends 2015/National
2015/National Intelligence
Intelligence Council
Council
Atmospheric CO2
18% increase in CO2

in 44 years
Norway’s Surplus Oil Money
• $180 billion available

• $50,000 for every man, woman and child
If there were $50,000 for each of
300 million Americans …
it would equal $15 trillion.

Norway $225B: $50,000/person
Singapore $250B+: $56,000/person
Abu Dhabi $250B+: $200,000/person
China or India?
China India
GDP, PPP, $ billion 6,574 3,023
GDP per capita, PPP, $ 5,087 2,878
Population, millions 1,288 1,064
Female % of labor force 45 32
Children 10-14 in the labor force, % of age group 6 11
Exports of goods and services / GDP, % 34 15
Poverty, population below $1/$2 a day, % 17/47 35/80
Youth illiteracy rate, % Age 15-24, Male/Female 1/2 20/35
Degrees awarded in computer science,
497 199
engineering and IT, per 1,000,000 people
Births rate, per 1,000 people 15 24
Infant mortality rate, per 1,000 live births 30 63
Life expectancy at birth 71 63
World Equity Market Performance
Top 10 USD Adjusted Returns, 2005
Percent Change, Year Ago

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
UAE Lebanon Jordan Kuwait Iceland
Egypt Colombia S. Arabia Russia Qatar
Stock Market Dec. 31, 1989
Nikkei 38,915
Dow Jones 2,753

Stock Market Dec. 31, 1989 April 25, 2006
Nikkei 38,915 17,010
Dow Jones 2,753 11,283

Stock Market Dec. 31, 1989 April 25, 2006
Nikkei 38,915 17,010
Dow Jones 2,753 11,283
Nikkei is down 56%.

Dow Jones up four-fold.
World’s Equity Market Share
December 1988 vs. March 2006
Market Capitalization Market Capitalization

1988 2006
Other Other
14% 15%
U.S.
29%
Europe
26%
U.S.
46%
Europe
26%
Japan
Japan
11%
40%
World’s Equity Market Share
December 1950 vs. March 2006
Market Capitalization Market Capitalization

1950 2006
Other
Other
6%
15%
Europe
26%
U.S.
46%
U.S.
Japan 59%
9% Europe
26%
Japan
11%
Japan’s Population Implosion
127
127 million
million
83
83 million
million
88
88 million
million
44
44 million
million
43
43 million
million
21
21 million
million
10
10 million
million
55 million
million
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities
by Selected Countries
US$ 6 trillion, June 2004
Japan
17%
Rest of world
United
37%
Kingdom
8%
Luxembourg
Unknown 4%
7%
China 6%
Poland <1%
Spain <1% Belgium 5%
Italy 1% Switzerland 3%
HK1% Germany 3%
S. Korea 1% Taiwan 2%
France 2% Singapore 2%
Countries that Export Capital: 2004
Japan is the largest exporter of capital
Other
countries Japan
22% 20%
Taiwan
2%
Netherlands
2%
Canada Germany
3% 12%
Korea
3%
China
Sweden
8%
Singapore 3%
Russia
3% Norway Saudi Arabia 7%
Switzerland
4% 6%
5%
Homes Price and Availability
3+ millions homes and condos for sale Feb. 2006
Million of Units USD Thousands
3.2 300
Average home price (R)
3.0 280
2.8 260
2.6 240
2.4 220
Number of units
2.2 200
available for sale
2.0 (L) 180
1.8 160
1.6 140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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Future for Investors

Prof. Jeremy J. Siegel ~ The Wharton School

The Aging of the

But this trend Cannot Continue

The Biggest Questions Facing the

Who Will Produce the Goods?

Who Will Buy the Assets?

Copyright Jeremy J. Siegel

 Can faster productivity growth help the

U.S. Life Expectancy and Retirement Age

 The number of immigrants to the US

 Outside the developed countries,

China China Japan

Mid Income India India

Western Europe Western Europe

Hi Inc. nonOECD Hi Inc. nonOECD

Latin Am/Carib Latin Am/Carib

Eastern Europe Eastern Europe

Mid Income Mid Income

Low Income Low Income

Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

Copyright Jeremy J. Siegel

The answer to our question:

Wharton Finance Department Recruitment Seminar Schedule: January - March 2006

Tuesday 17-Jan MACRO Virgiliu Midrigan Ohio State Moldova

Thursday 19-Jan MICRO Camelia Kuhnen Stanford Romania

Thursday 26-Jan MICRO Vito Gala Chicago Italian

Tuesday 31-Jan MACRO Emmanuel Farhi MIT French from N. Africa

Thursday 2-Feb MICRO Gustavo Manso Stanford Brazil

Tuesday 7-Feb MACRO Santiago Bazdresch Yale Mexico

Thursday 9-Feb MICRO Zhi Da Northwestern Singapore

Tuesday 14-Feb MICRO Gustav Sigurdsson Princeton Iceland

Thursday 16-Feb MICRO Jan Schneider British Columbia Germany

Tuesday 21-Feb MICRO Peter Kondor London Economics Budapest/Hungary

Thursday 23-Feb MICRO Dana Kiku Duke Ukraine

Thursday 2-Mar MICRO Yuri Tserlukevich UC Berkeley - Haas Belarus

Milken Institute Global Conference

• Developing world: Growing middle class

• Developed world: Chronologically aging

Land: 14% Land: 24%

North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z.

Current GDP GDP Per Capita

1820, Share of World Total 2005, Share of World Total

China 28.7 35.7 U.S. 28.4 4.6

20,000 Bronze Iron Classical/ Middle

2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 1750 2000

Stem Cell WWW

2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 1750 2000

Each farm person fed about two others.

Each farm person fed about 340 others!

“Everything that can be

Slide courtesy of David Wise, Harvard University

Age When Mortality Risk Reaches 2%

Age When Mortality Risk Reaches 1%

Source: Research America

Source: Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel/University of Chicago

-American Cancer Society

Index 1970 = 100

Index 1970 = 100

“For the past 30 years the poor in

Source: New York Times

Can faster productivity growth help the

The number of immigrants to the US

Outside the developed countries,