Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
Details
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
120 Remember! Focus on decisions
2.0 evidence
24.6
2,950

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 11.3% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 4.0% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 5.3% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.3 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 11.6% A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 17.0
Latest P/E (x) 16.3
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Rs Cr Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 22 25 26 26 25 25 25 50 49 49
Reserves 558 954 1,153 1,464 1,560 1,768 1,883 1,686 1,743 1,915
Borrowings 344 204 378 765 727 992 613 513 590 474
Other Liabilities 371 334 520 605 703 868 951 821 933 1,013
Total 1,295 1,517 2,077 2,860 3,016 3,654 3,472 3,071 3,315 3,451

Net Block 562 719 1,148 1,714 1,829 2,249 2,062 1,579 1,540 1,560
Capital Work in Progress 74 75 56 85 14 24 30 50 75 10
Investments 83 167 132 107 186 190 89 153 291 325
Other Assets 575 557 741 954 987 1,191 1,291 1,289 1,409 1,556
Total 1,295 1,517 2,077 2,860 3,016 3,654 3,472 3,071 3,315 3,451

Working Capital 205 223 221 349 284 323 340 467 476 543
Debtors 297 235 253 358 382 572 648 677 752 839
Inventory 2 3 7 13 11 11 12 11 10 10
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 47 42 32 30 36 43 42 44 49 51
Inventory Turnover 1,181 756 410 342 355 426 482 504 551 631
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.6 3.9
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Return on Equity 21% 14% 15% 20% 11% 9% 13% 14% 13% 9%
Return on Capital Employed 20% 16% 16% 19% 12% 9% 15% 15% 15% 11%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Rs Cr Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 2,314 2,050 2,863 4,280 3,926 4,859 5,629 5,641 5,583 6,047 6,701
% Growth YOY -11% 40% 49% -8% 24% 16% 0% -1% 8%
Expenses 2,097 1,834 2,592 3,756 3,566 4,464 5,147 5,131 5,113 5,673 6,291
Material Cost (% of Sales) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 68% 62% 65% 65% 67% 69% 69% 67% 68% 71% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 14% 17% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 17% 15% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 9% 10% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5%
Operating Profit 217 216 272 524 360 396 482 509 470 373 411
Operating Profit Margin 9% 11% 9% 12% 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 6% 6%
Other Income 11 29 27 45 66 37 53 35 49 46 42
Other Income as % of Sales 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6%
Depreciation 45 54 55 134 147 175 157 201 166 159 159
Interest 25 23 19 64 45 61 60 46 37 35 30
Interest Coverage(Times) 7 8 13 7 6 4 6 7 9 7 10
Profit before tax (PBT) 158 167 224 371 234 196 317 297 315 225 263
% Growth YOY 6% 34% 66% -37% -16% 62% -6% 6% -29%
PBT Margin 7% 8% 8% 9% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 4% 4%
Tax 36 26 48 73 51 42 70 50 78 51 82
Net profit 122 141 176 298 182 154 247 248 238 174 181
% Growth YOY 16% 25% 69% -39% -15% 60% 0% -4% -27%
Net Profit Margin 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
EPS 5.1 5.6 6.9 11.6 7.2 6.1 9.8 9.8 9.7 7.1 7.4
% Growth YOY 10% 22% 69% -38% -15% 60% 0% -1% -27%
Price to earning 12.8 17.3 10.4 5.5 8.0 12.4 17.2 15.8 18.2 21.3 16.3
Price 65 97 71 63 58 76 168 155 176 151 120
Dividend Payout 5.2% 9.6% 23.6% 6.9% 11.1% 12.7% 10.5% 21.0% 21.2% 28.7%
Market Cap 1,551 2,436 1,830 1,625 1,460 1,911 4,239 3,910 4,335 3,704
Retained Earnings 115 127 134 277 162 135 221 196 187 124
Buffett's $1 Test 1.3

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 11.3% 11.3% 9.0% 2.4%
PBT Growth 4.0% 0.1% -0.7% -10.8%
PBT Margin 6.2% 5.6% 4.9% 4.9%
Price to Earning 13.9 14.0 17.0 18.4

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Rs Cr Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 88 186 197 347 324 311 416 440 359 308 2,975
% Growth YoY 112% 6% 76% -6% -4% 34% 6% -19% -14%
Cash from Investing Activity -263 -230 -381 -544 -177 -417 -16 -191 -285 -18 -2,523
Cash from Financing Activity 213 35 236 183 -145 135 -394 -200 -84 -222 -243
Net Cash Flow 38 -10 51 -14 2 28 6 50 -11 68 209
CFO/Sales 4% 9% 7% 8% 8% 6% 7% 8% 6% 5%
CFO/Net Profit 72% 132% 112% 116% 178% 201% 168% 178% 151% 177%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -227 -26 -168 -218 -283 -626 -740 -1,198 -879 -516 -4,881
Average FCF (3 Years) -864
FCF Growth YoY -89% 556% 30% 29% 122% 18% 62% -27% -41%
FCF/Sales -10% -1% -6% -5% -7% -13% -13% -21% -16% -9%
FCF/Net Profit -211% -20% -101% -77% -166% -419% -308% -499% -379% -301%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth -11.4% 39.7% 49.5% -8.3% 23.8% 15.8% 0.2% -1.0%
PBT Growth 5.7% 34.3% 65.7% -37.1% -16.1% 61.8% -6.2% 6.1%
Net Profit Growth 15.7% 25.0% 69.2% -38.7% -15.3% 60.0% 0.2% -4.0%
Dividend Growth 123.3% 213.7% -50.1% -3.2% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% -2.5%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 112.4% 5.7% 76.4% -6.4% -4.2% 34.0% 5.7% -18.5%
Free Cash Flow Growth -88.8% 556.3% 30.2% 29.5% 121.6% 18.1% 61.9% -26.6%

Operating Margin 9.4% 10.5% 9.5% 12.2% 9.2% 8.1% 8.6% 9.0% 8.4%
PBT Margin 6.8% 8.1% 7.8% 8.7% 5.9% 4.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6%
Net Margin 5.3% 6.9% 6.1% 7.0% 4.6% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3%

Debtor Days 46.9 41.9 32.2 30.5 35.6 42.9 42.0 43.8 49.2
Inventory Turnover ### 756.4 409.6 342.2 355.3 425.9 482.3 503.6 550.6
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.6
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3
Debt/Assets 26.6% 13.5% 18.2% 26.8% 24.1% 27.2% 17.7% 16.7% 17.8%
Interest Coverage (Times) 7.3 8.2 12.5 6.8 6.2 4.2 6.3 7.5 9.4
Return on Equity 21.0% 14.4% 14.9% 20.0% 11.5% 8.6% 13.0% 14.3% 13.3%
Return on Capital Employed 19.8% 16.0% 15.6% 19.3% 12.1% 9.2% 15.0% 15.3% 14.8%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -227 -26 -168 -218 -283 -626 -740 -1,198 -879
Mar/18
8.3%
-28.6%
-26.8%
0.0%
-14.0%
-41.3%

6.2%
3.7%
2.9%

50.6
631.2
3.9
0.2
13.7%
7.4
8.9%
10.7%
-516
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
14% Profit Margin 25% Capital Alloc
Check for a rising trend and
12% Numbers > 20% long term a
20%
10% has zero/marginal debt. Com
8% 15%
6% 10%
4%
2% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/1

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

7,000
Revenue 80% Revenue and Pro
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
6,000 60% Compare grow

5,000 40%
4,000 20%
3,000 0%
2,000 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan
-20%
1,000 -40%
- -60%
Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

400 Profit Over Time Operating and

1,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
350 which are rising over tim
300 500
250 -
200 Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/
150 -500
100 -1,000
50
- -1,500
Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 9% 11% 9% 12% 9% 8% 9% 9% 8%
PBT Margin 7% 8% 8% 9% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6%
Net Margin 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 21% 14% 15% 20% 11% 9% 13% 14% 13%
ROCE 20% 16% 16% 19% 12% 9% 15% 15% 15%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth -11% 40% 49% -8% 24% 16% 0% -1% 8%
PBT Growth 6% 34% 66% -37% -16% 62% -6% 6% -29%
Net Profit Growth 16% 25% 69% -39% -15% 60% 0% -4% -27%

Revenue & Profit

Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 2,314 2,050 2,863 4,280 3,926 4,859 5,629 5,641 5,583
PBT 158 167 224 371 234 196 317 297 315
Net Profit 122 141 176 298 182 154 247 248 238

Cash Flows
Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 88 186 197 347 324 311 416 440 359
Free Cash Flow -227 -26 -168 -218 -283 -626 -740 -1,198 -879
% Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year

%
Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

%
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
%
%
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
-
Jan/08 Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
6%
4%
3%

Mar/18
9%
11%

Mar/18
6,047
225
174

Mar/18
308
-516
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Change in Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 68% 62% 65% 65% 67% 69% 69% 67% 68% 71%
Employee Cost 14% 17% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 17% 15%
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 9% 10% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5%
Other Expenses 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Operating Profit 9% 11% 9% 12% 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 6%
Other Income 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Interest 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 7% 8% 8% 9% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 4%
Tax 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Net Profit 5% 6% 6% 7% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3%
Dividend Amount 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Reserves 43% 63% 56% 51% 52% 48% 54% 55% 53% 55%
Borrowings 27% 13% 18% 27% 24% 27% 18% 17% 18% 14%
Other Liabilities 29% 22% 25% 21% 23% 24% 27% 27% 28% 29%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 43% 47% 55% 60% 61% 62% 59% 51% 46% 45%
Capital Work in Progress 6% 5% 3% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0%
Investments 6% 11% 6% 4% 6% 5% 3% 5% 9% 9%
Other Assets 44% 37% 36% 33% 33% 33% 37% 42% 43% 45%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 23% 16% 12% 13% 13% 16% 19% 22% 23% 24%
Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cash & Bank 8% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (994) (888) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,143) (911) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,315) (936) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,446) (919) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (1,591) (903) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (1,750) (887) Sales 9% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (1,837) (831) PBT -1% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (1,929) (779) FCF 13% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,026) (730) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,127) (685) 10 FY27
10 -21,269 (6,848) 10
Intrinsic Value (9,488) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,950 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -131% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,037) (926) Year 4-6 15%
(1,245) (992) Year 7-10 10%
(1,494) (1,063) Discount Rate 12%
(1,718) (1,092)
(1,975) (1,121)
(2,272) (1,151)
(2,499) (1,130)
(2,749) (1,110)
(3,024) (1,090)
(3,326) (1,071)
(49,891) (16,064)
Intrinsic Value (20,982)
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,950
Premium/(Discount) to IV -114%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name LCARGO LOGISTICS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 212.2 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (0.5) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 1,605 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 2,950 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
LCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Mar/18

212.2
8.5
(0.9)

1,407
2,950

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (864) ###

2,950
Years 1-5 6-10 -667%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,355)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (994) 15% (888)
2 (1,143) 15% (911)
3 (1,315) 15% (936)
4 (1,512) 15% (961)
5 (1,739) 15% (987)
6 (1,947) 12% (987)
7 (2,181) 12% (987)
8 (2,443) 12% (987)
9 (2,736) 12% (987)
10 (3,064) 12% (987)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,125)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (9,615)
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,950

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
S LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Particulars Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/10 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 108 130 166 285 170 149 240
Net Profit Margin 5% 6% 6% 7% 4% 3% 4%
Return on Equity 21% 14% 15% 20% 11% 9% 13%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 532
Current P/E (x) 17.2
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 10,644
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 3,427
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,950

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
240 232 171 5% 0%
4% 4% 3%
14% 13% 9%
 Intrinsic Value Range
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho -9,488 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 1,605 1,407 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF -19,678 understand this business?
Expected Return 3,427
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 2,950 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 1,410 1,411 1,363 1,483 1,547 1,480 1,536 1,625 1,737 1,803
% Growth YOY 10% 5% 13% 10% 12% 22%
Expenses 1,283 1,312 1,257 1,380 1,443 1,387 1,465 1,523 1,612 1,691
Operating Profit 127 99 106 103 105 93 72 102 125 112
Other Income 8 19 15 16 8 6 12 8 7 16
Depreciation 43 41 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Interest 8 8 10 8 7 7 7 8 8 7
Profit before tax 84 70 73 71 66 52 36 63 83 81
PBT Margin 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 4%
% Growth YOY -22% -25% -50% -12% 26% 56%
Tax 18 21 13 8 1 20 23 9 20 31
Net profit 66 49 57 61 64 32 12 53 62 50
% Growth YOY -4% -35% -80% -13% -3% 57%
OPM 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 6%
COMPANY NAME ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 24.57
Face Value 2
Current Price 120.05
Market Capitalization 2949.57

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 2314.08 2049.77 2863.3 4280.35 3926.27 4859.43
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 20.07 24.73 20.28 70.39 71.73 76.85
Other Mfr. Exp 1568.27 1274.37 1853.1 2794.14 2647.67 3351.21
Employee Cost 330.47 346.57 397.28 609.46 563.4 728.97
Selling and admin 169.83 193.94 285.42 215.04 217.29 267.78
Other Expenses 8.75 -5.59 35.55 67.35 66.17 38.69
Other Income 10.64 28.58 26.64 45.16 66.18 36.5
Depreciation 44.72 54.47 54.99 133.7 147.35 175.46
Interest 24.85 23.16 19.45 64.4 45.3 60.94
Profit before tax 157.76 166.7 223.87 371.03 233.54 196.03
Tax 36.19 25.99 47.97 73.35 51.21 41.59
Net profit 107.7 129.95 165.92 284.52 169.74 149.33
Dividend Amount 5.59 12.48 39.15 19.53 18.91 18.91

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 1410.19 1411.44 1362.81 1483.43 1547.24 1479.91
Expenses 1283.35 1312.11 1257.24 1380.47 1442.52 1386.72
Other Income 8.03 18.98 15.09 16.46 7.94 5.59
Depreciation 43.35 40.7 38.55 39.9 39.78 39.71
Interest 7.53 7.79 9.56 8.33 7.08 7.05
Profit before tax 83.99 69.82 72.55 71.19 65.8 52.02
Tax 17.83 21.13 13.1 7.62 0.63 19.92
Net profit 66.16 49.18 57.24 61.13 63.8 32.21
Operating Profit 126.84 99.33 105.57 102.96 104.72 93.19

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 22.36 24.96 26.1 26.04 25.21 25.21
Reserves 557.62 954.16 1152.83 1463.8 1560.42 1767.88
Borrowings 343.97 204.43 377.76 765.33 726.68 992.11
Other Liabilities 370.83 333.91 520.09 605.04 703.41 868.48
Total 1294.78 1517.46 2076.78 2860.21 3015.72 3653.68
Net Block 562.41 718.83 1148.25 1713.67 1828.96 2248.53
Capital Work in Progress 74.11 74.99 55.95 85.43 13.93 23.59
Investments 82.8 166.82 131.92 107.09 185.91 190.24
Other Assets 575.46 556.82 740.66 954.02 986.92 1191.32
Total 1294.78 1517.46 2076.78 2860.21 3015.72 3653.68
Receivables 297.48 235.41 252.81 357.61 382.45 571.5
Inventory 1.96 2.71 6.99 12.51 11.05 11.41
Cash & Bank 101.2 91.64 142.98 134.07 138.19 164.69
No. of Equity Shares 22363611 124811265 130516968 130182494 126047762 126047762
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 2 2 2 2 2

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 87.59 186.04 196.56 346.76 324.42 310.72
Cash from Investing Activity -262.52 -230.24 -381.3 -544.17 -177.35 -417.42
Cash from Financing Activity 213 34.64 236.08 183.38 -144.63 134.95
Net Cash Flow 38.07 -9.56 51.34 -14.03 2.44 28.25

PRICE: 65.211905 97.1215 71.315 63.404211 57.8965 75.820526

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 23.79 25.09 25.66 25.62 25.21 25.21
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

5628.8 5640.52 5583.36 6046.91

78.02 65.03 32.89 30.26

3883.03 3765.44 3785.04 4316.36
856.56 918.49 941.94 930.28
297.2 330.26 307.81 313.27
31.95 52.18 45.81 83.32
52.61 34.94 49.1 46.2
157.37 200.63 166.17 159.06
60.14 46.02 37.38 35.34
317.14 297.41 315.42 225.22
69.96 49.83 77.63 51.26
239.89 239.87 231.82 171.35
25.21 50.42 49.14 49.14

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

1536.33 1624.99 1737.26 1802.73
1464.61 1522.92 1612.36 1690.91
11.5 8.4 6.64 15.51
39.67 39.68 40.32 39.81
7.45 7.88 8.46 6.52
36.1 62.91 82.76 81
23.09 8.58 19.91 30.57
11.66 53.09 61.81 50.43
71.72 102.07 124.9 111.82

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

25.21 50.42 49.14 49.14
 1882.55 1685.97 1743.08 1915.24
613.33 513.27 589.64 474.16
950.94 821.28 932.76 1012.74
3472.03 3070.94 3314.62 3451.28
2061.63 1579 1539.56 1560.38
30.23 50.37 75.32 9.97
89.37 152.97 290.87 324.94
1290.8 1288.6 1408.87 1555.99
3472.03 3070.94 3314.62 3451.28
647.56 676.67 752.21 838.63
11.67 11.2 10.14 9.58
173.74 194.43 187.3 244.65
126047762 252095524 245695524 245695524
126047762
2 2 2 2

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

416.23 440.16 358.52 308.24
-15.64 -190.51 -285.14 -18.27
-394.29 -200.07 -84.03 -222.34
6.3 49.58 -10.65 67.63

168.1635 155.102632 176.45 150.745238

25.21 25.21 24.57 24.57

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