forecasting sites viz.

Matizuri on the Katakhal in Assam and Alipingal Devi on

the Mahanadi in Orissa just touched their previous HFL during the flood
season 2003.

In 2003, high flood situations i.e. where peak level were attained within
0.5m of previous HFL, were experienced at 23 forecasting sites i.e. 4 sites on
the Ganga viz Kannauj, Ghazipur in Uttar Pradesh and Patna (Gandhighat)
and Hathidah in Bihar, 3 sites on the Ghaghra viz Ayodhya in U.P. and
Gangpur Siswan & Chhapra in Bihar, 2 sites on the Gandak viz Khadda in U.P.
and Hazipur in Bihar, 2 site on the Kosi viz Basua & Kursela, and Benibad on
the Bagmati all the three in Bihar, 6 sites in Assam viz. Tezpur & Guwahati on
the Brahmaputra, Kampur on the Kopli, Khowang on the Burhi Dihing, N.T.
Road crossing on Jiabharali and Naglamoraghat on the Desang, 2 sites in
West Bengal viz Mathabhanga on the Jaldhaka and Mekhliganj on the Teesta,
2 sites Hirakud Dam and Nimapara on the Mahanadi in Orissa, Daman on the
Damanganga in Dadra & Nagar Haveli.

During the flood season 2003, all the 166 flood forecasting stations
including 27 inflows forecasting site were operational from flood forecasts
point of view. Out of these no forecast was issued / required at 27 (22.29%)
sites including 5 inflow flood forecasting sites viz. Tajewala on the Yamuna,
Jaikwaedi Dam on the Godavari, Nizamsagar on the Manjira, Prakashan
Barrage on the Krishna, Dantiwada on the Banas. On the whole, 6600
forecasts were issued for the remaining 129 (77.71%) flood forecasting sites,
which includes 611 inflow forecasts. Out of these 6368 i.e. 96.48% forecasts
including 586 (95.91%) inflow forecasts, were found within permissible limit
of accuracy.

Graph showing the year-wise total number of forecasts issued and

number of accurate forecasts is at Fig. 3.1.

3.2.2 Modernisation of Flood Forecasting Services

Central Water Commission makes constant endeavour in updating and

modernizing the forecasting services. Forecasting involves a number of
stages, namely, data observation, collection, transmission, compilation and
analysis of data, formulation of forecasts and their dissemination to the user
agencies. To make the flood forecasts more accurate, effective and timely,
modernization is a regular ongoing process of CWC’s Flood Forecasting &
Warning Network System.

The use of computerized mathematical models for data analysis,

forecast formulation was introduced in CWC in the last two decades. At
present Mike 11, hydrological model acquired under CWC-DHI Co-operation
programme besides a number of other indigenously developed mathematical
models using rainfall, water level, discharge data etc are in use and are being
upgraded / re-calibrated after each monsoon season to derive the best
possible result. In addition, the conventional methods are also in use. During
the flood season 2003, the window-based MIKE-11 modeling software
procured under the World Bank Aided DSARP Scheme, had also been used in
Mahanadi and Chambal Basin. Additional basins, namely Krishna, Godavari,
Mahanadi, Brahmaputra, Barak, Ghaghra, Rapti, Damodar & Yamuna will also
be covered by telemetry for data collection, processing and mathematical
models for forecast formulation during the X Plan.

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