FINANCIAL MARKET

Assignment 2 - FX market analysis and Trading

14/12/2018
strategies report

Students’ Names:

1 Vu Minh Hieu s3668952

2 Le Tung Lam s3715161

3 Ngo Minh Dat s3695428

Lecturer: Ms. Upasana Jain

Group: 3

Word count: 3300 words

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Financial market
ASSIGNMENT 2 - FX MARKET A N A LY S I S AND TRADING S T R AT E G I E S
REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................ 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 3
I.INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 3
II.ANALYSIS AND TRADING STRATEGY ............................................................................... 4
1.FX MARKET PAST BEHAVIOUR ....................................................................................... 4
i.AUD/USD ............................................................................................................................... 4
ii.CAD/USD .............................................................................................................................. 6
2.FX MARKET ELEMENT ANALYSIS .................................................................................... 8
2.1. Inflation rate .................................................................................................................... 8
Australia................................................................................................................................ 9
USA ..................................................................................................................................... 10
Canada ................................................................................................................................ 11
2.2. Interest Rate................................................................................................................... 12
USA ..................................................................................................................................... 12
Canada ................................................................................................................................ 14
Australia.............................................................................................................................. 15
2.3. Economic Growth........................................................................................................... 15
Australia.............................................................................................................................. 16
USA ..................................................................................................................................... 17
Canada ................................................................................................................................ 18
2.4. International speculation ............................................................................................... 19
2.5. FX expectation ............................................................................................................... 19
2.6. Official intervention ....................................................................................................... 20
2.7. Commodity prices .......................................................................................................... 21
2.8. Market View Summary .................................................................................................. 21
III.TRADING STRATEGY ................................................................................................... 22
IV.CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 26
V.APPENDIX ................................................................................................................... 27
VI.REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 36

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Representing the treasury team for BIDV, we going to provide specific information about factors that
affecting the two currency pairs: AUD/USD and USD/CAD in order to build the most profitable trading
strategies for BIDV.

First, we take a glance at the past two years performance of two pairs in terms of their exchange rate.
Then, the paper would assess the macroeconomic factors of Canada, Australia and USA such as interest
rate, inflation rate, commodity price, GDP growth, government intervention as well as FX market
expectation. Based on that, we would be able to form better trading strategies. At the end, we anticipate
that USD is firmly appreciating against the AUD and CAD in the next six-month time.

Finally, considering all data analysis, we would come up with the trading plans for BIDV that could utilized
the maximum potential of the given budget. Other than that, we include loss anticipation and risk
management that bank should pay attention. At the end of the trading session, our company could gain
significant amount of money as profit.

I. INTRODUCTION

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) is the largest
commercial joint stock bank in Vietnam, based on total assets and surplus in 2016 and is a joint stock
company. It is the fourth largest industry in Vietnam according to a report by UNDP in 2007. BIDV is a
state-owned enterprise of a special type, which is organized under the model of state corporations. BIDV
cooperates with more than 800 banks in the world. (BIDV 2018).In the banking system of Vietnam, BIDV
plays an important role in the socio-economic development and is improving its operational capacity,
risk control and operational efficiency.

This report’s main objective is to investigate past behavior of two pairs of currencies which are
AUD/USD, CAD/USD and then analyze other factors which affect exchange rate of the currency pair. And
finally, this report will propose the most suitable trading strategies to maximize profit within at least 6
months. The statistic will be forecasted and the risk profile of the currencies for BIDV will also be
evaluated

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II. ANALYSIS AND TRADING STRATEGY

1. FX MARKET PAST BEHAVIOUR

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i. AUD/USD

Figure 1: AUD/USA Daily Exchange rate 2016 -2018. Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

Figure 2: AUD/USA Weekly Exchange rate 2016-2018 (Candlestick chart). Source: Thomson Reuters
Eikon

The price pattern of AUD/USD saw a fluctuating downward trend after 2 years period. In the beginning
of period, December 2016, its value starts from $0.750 and drop to 0.7216 in the beginning of December
2018. Throughout the period of 2016-2017, the price pattern fluctuated gradually but it was following

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an upward change, the pair value met the lowest of $0.735 then reached the highest of $0.810 in late
2017. After reaching the highest for the whole period of $0.810, it was obvious that 2018 was a bad year
for the pair when the Australian dollar sunk to its lowest in two years at $0.705 then covered to 0.7208
in the end of period. There are two properly main reason for the sinking of Australian dollar in the past
year of 2017-2018.Firstly, according to Bednarik (2018), the AUD/USD pair was driven exclusively by trade
war between the United State and China. He also mentioned that “the pair went from a fresh 4-month
high to 0.7393, to a 3-week low of 0.7191”. It is widely believed that investor was on fears of a Recession
in US economy due to the trade war which affect directly to the pair currency. Secondly, CommBank
(2018) stated that: “…iron ore and coal, are some of Australia's biggest export products.” The price of
iron ore and coal have a directly influence on Australia ‘s economic performance as well as the Australian
dollar. It is reported that “Coal price drops one third as China shuts door on Australian imports until
2019”, Pritchard (2018).

ii. CAD/USD

Figure 3: CAD/USD Daily Exchange rate 2016 -2018. Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

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Figure 4: CAD/USD Weekly Exchange rate 2016-2018 (Candlestick chart). Source : Thomson Reuters
Eikon

The CAD/USD pair has the most changes in 2017.The value of CAD/USD decreased dramatically from
$0.7616 to $0.7273 in May,2017. After, the exchange rates had been experiencing a huge recovery from
the lowest point in May,2017 – to the highest throughout 2 years – $0.7512 in Sep,2017.The increase in
CAD was explained by Esparza(2017) that The Canadian dollar rallied against the dollar as higher oil
prices and data show a record-breaking domestic employment boosted expectations the Bank of Canada
will raise interest rates further. The economy is operating well, may CPI inflation index of Canada would
gradually rise.

Same to the pair of AUD/USD, the value of CAD was following the downward trend in the whole 2018.The
pair saw a decrease from $0.8256 to $0.7512. Canadian dollar (CAD) has fallen to its lowest level against
the dollar since summer of 2017 due to fears of tensions over bilateral trade with the United States and
the resumption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (round 7). (NAFTA) does not make progress,
Esparza (2017)

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2. FX MARKET ELEMENT ANALYSIS

Wiley et al. (2006) stated that exchange rates are set at ‘market-clearing prices that equilibrate supplies
and demands in the foreign exchange market’. In other words, exchange rate is determined by the
interaction of supply and demand of the currency; therefore, factors which impact market trend would
eventually affect exchange rate. What follows would examine those indicators’ future trends and how it
would influence the chosen currencies in the next six months, then come up with conclusions on market
view.

2.1 Inflation rate

CPI YY and CPI FULL YEAR %CHG are chosen as the to represent each country’s recent inflation rate
and inflation forecast, respectively.

Australia

Figure 5: Australia Inflation Rate

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Australia’s inflation has been fluctuating at a relatively low level, between 2.10% and 1.90% in the past
six months, as the RBA has implemented their monetary policy to achieve 2-3% target, and that the rate
is ‘sufficiently low that it does not materially distort economic decisions in the community’ (Reserve Bank
of Australia, 2018). Although the change is insignificant, it is forecasted that the rate would likely to raise
up to 2.20% in 2019 and remain unchanged until 2020. Therefore, it can be assumed that the rate would
increase in next six-month time.

Accordingly, increasing inflation would result in higher cost of goods and services, which would incur two
effects. Firstly, higher market price makes Australian’s goods less competitive than other countries, hence
its demand for exports would be reduced, generating less demand for AUD. Simultaneously, demand for
imports will increase as the domestic market becomes more expensive, supply of AUD would therefore
increase. Consequently, that would create a lower equilibrium exchange rate, meaning that AUD is
depreciating against other currency.

Nonetheless, Australia’s inflation is still in control, and it is likely that the minor adjustment in inflation
would only cause little change to AUD’s value in next six months

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USA

Figure 6: U.S. Inflation Rate

Overall, U.S. inflation is more fluctuating than that of Australia. Still, it stays under 3%. Since the middle-
2018, after having reached the six-year peak at 2.90%, the rate started to cool down at 2.50% .

It is anticipated to keep falling in the next two years down to 2.20%. As contrasted to the movements of
Australia, this trend would essentially boost up U.S. exports and cutback imports, and eventually hike up
the Big Dollar’s value against other currencies in next 6-month period.

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Canada

Figure 7: Canada Inflation Rate

Same as the U.S., in middle-2018, Canada’s inflation has surged to its highest level of 3% since 2011, and
then drop down to 2.20% at the end of September. Its forecast figures ensure that the rate is experiencing
downward trend in 2-year time.

However, Canada’s bullish movement has shown the short-term effect of inflation. Theoretically, it is
claimed that a modest downturn of inflation would actually lift the currency, as traders would expect a

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following growth in interest, which would ‘increase the relative attractiveness of the domestic currency’
(Pontikis, Doughlas & Lovrencic, 2011, p. 95). In this case, Evans (2018) pointed that strong inflation
helped ‘the loonie to gain half a cent to 76.50 cents US’.

Therefore, the future downward trend of inflation could possibly bring reverse outcome, which
depreciates CAD against other currencies.

2.2. Interest Rate

*Notes: Since Eikon application only provides forecast on treasury bills and bonds yield, which is hardly
relevant, the following would evaluate the provided current movements and estimate the future trend
according to each country’s policy.

USA

Figure 8: US Interest Rate

The graph has shown a consistent upward trend of U.S.’ interest, beginning at 3.80% in Q1 2017 and
currently at 5.25%, resulted from the implementation of FED’s tighten monetary policy, which aims to
reach maximized employment, price stability and long-term 2% of inflation. Ashworth (cited in
Appelbaum, 2018) expected another rate hike in December and two more within first-half of 2019.
Therefore, it could be believed that next six-month pattern of U.S.’ interest is upward sloping.

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Increasing interest could result in two possible outcomes. Firstly, it is described that a country with
constant higher interest would actually suffer from currency depreciation, if the high rate is due to
inflation (Pontikis, Doughlas & Lovrencic, 2011, p. 94); however, this is not applicable since U.S. inflation
is being well-controlled.

Also, higher interest could encourage capital inflows and discourage outflows, both domestic and
overseas investors would prefer U.S. market, causing an increase in USD’s value in six-month time.

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Canada

Figure 9: Canada Interest Rate

Witnessing the similar pattern, Canada’s interest experienced bullish trend in more than twelve months
straight. As referred to Poloz (cited in Ljunggren, 2018), the bank will continue its ‘gradual approach’ to
raise interest rate, with the main objective is to avoid inflation momentum. Hence, Canada’s interest is
prompted to increase in the coming six months.

However, the case of Canada is slightly different when its 2.8% inflation rate in August is fairly higher than
the bank’s target 2%, creating an expectation of high inflation among investors, which eventually damage
CAD’s value. This could offset the positive effect resulted from higher interest onto the CAD’s value. That
means CAD would appreciate at relatively lower degree compared to USD.

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Australia

Figure 10: Australia Interest Rate

Pandey (2018) claimed that the RBA decided to hold interest at all-time low 1.5% for 28 months straight,
since August 2016, and that the number might stay unchanged until mid-2020, because a recent run of
soft economic data has eliminated any probability of earlier hike.

The policy has positively influenced employment and target inflation, which in return has worsen wages
growth, consumer uncertainty and the housing market (The Business Time, 2018)

Australia’s record low interest would clearly discourage both overseas investors and domestic surplus
sector. Consequently, AUD is expected to lose its value against others.

2.3 Economic Growth

Owing to limited data available, this analysis would pick GDP YY and GDP ANNUAL AVG%CHG to represent
current and short-term GDP Growth, respectively.

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Australia

Figure 11: Australia Growth Rate

Generally, Australia’s economy has been strongly growing during mid-2018 and reached 3.40% growth.
In effect, AUD has ‘spiked 0.5% to USD after the release of the figures’ (Hutchens, 2018). Nevertheless,
due to weak wages growth, tumbling housing prices and customer uncertainties, Pandey (2018) showed
that the economy is underperforming during Q3-2018, resulted in 20 pips decrease against USD.

Australia’s growth is predicted to have bearish trend in next two years at around 2.70% in 2020, indicating
that in following six months, AUD would likely to keep depreciating against USD.

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USA

Figure 12: U.S. GDP Growth

Mutikani (2018) indicated the unexpected slower pace of U.S. growth in Q3 this year, at 3.5% after having
peaked at 4.1% last quarter, as the result of tariff-related drop in soybean exports. Additionally, Reuter
polls predicted that the rate would sharply reduce in the coming years, down to 1.8% in 2020.

Consequently, lower rate would create uncertainty and reduce capital inflows, which decreases demand
for USD. Simultaneously, imports would be declined, lowering supply of USD. Therefore, the value of USD
cannot be determined easily based on growth rate.

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Canada

Figure 13: Canada GDP Growth

Canada’s figure has fluctuated between 2.3%-1.9%, and is predicted to decline by 40 pips in the coming
years. Specifically, Flynn (cited in Scuffham, 2018) believed that economic uncertainty and trade tensions
could damage both Canada and U.S. growth, he supposed both countries would lose 30 to 40 basis points
in 2019.

Because of the same forecast movement of economic growth, the USD/CAD rate would not likely to
change in the coming six months by this indicator.

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2.4. International speculation

The U.S. – the world’s largest economy has been involving in a trade war with the second largest economy
that is China. This ongoing event made the greenback a safe haven as this uncertainty made the investors
in other currencies fear that it could become volatile and illiquid. Since the Euro is no longer attractive
because of the economy crisis in Greece, money will be rushed into the U.S. dollar because investors will
have no other safe options, thus, fortify its exchange rate (Hedrick-Wong 2018).

On the other hand, other economies will suffer with the rise of the US dollar. Enforcing more tariffs on
Chinese goods means that the Yuan of China will suffer as a consequence. Therefore, affecting the
purchasing and investing power of China, according to Bagsaw (2018) this is the case in Australia, “Two
of Australia's largest exports - the resources and education sectors - are particularly exposed, with a
falling of Chinese currency and its buying power, discouraging Chinese parents from sending their
children to Australian universities, and a slowing economy would reduce demand for iron ore and coal.
A best-case scenario modelled by KPMG, where tariffs would not escalate beyond the current threats
from the White House, would see Australia’s GDP projected to be 0.3 percent lower by 2022. This
represents a $36 billion drop in economic growth over five years”. Hence, it can be seen that non- U.S.
economies will suffer when the USD are strong.

2.5. FX expectation

Following the arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou, skepticism about the truce between the U.S. and
China began to appear. Since then, the world markets declined while the USD remained unchanged. This
is the case of the Australian market, “The Australia dollar continued the declines started on Tuesday after
the country released weak trade balance data. In October, the country’s trade balance was at A$2.316
billion, which was lower than the consensus estimates of A$3.1 billion” (OctaFx 2018). This might come
from the fact that investors expect AUD’s value will continue to drop and decide to sell their AUD, leading
to an increase in AUD supply and dropping in value. Therefore, USD is expected to be steady in the near
future and other currencies such as CAD and AUD will suffer as a result of the ongoing trade war.

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2.6 Official intervention

Australia is applying its policies through the actions of the RBA. Since August of 2016, the central bank
has maintained a steady rate of 1.5 percent with expectation of lowering the unemployment rates and
having inflation return to the targeted rate (CentralBankNews 2018). Nonetheless, by keeping low
interest rates, this policy also discourages investors from buying the AUD to invest in Australia. Instead,
they are now selling the AUD to invest in country with high interest rates like the US. This can be proven
by the work above when AUD was worth around 70.6 U.S. cents on October 5 – the lowest level since
2016.

Meanwhile, “The Fed raised interest rates three times this year and is expected to raise its target again
next month, to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. As of September, Fed policymakers expected to
need to increase rates three more times next year, a view they will update next month” (Saphir, 2018).
By raising the interest rates, the U.S. will strengthen the value of USD against its counterparts

In Canada, although the interest has been on a hike, the loonie fell to a nearly 18-month low against the
USD as the oil and stock prices declined (Smith, 2018). With the arrest of the CFO of Huawei, investors
fear that the oil price and the relationship between the US and China will continue to decline. Thus,
investors are yet to be lured by the steady increase in Canada’s interest. Therefore, it is expected that
the Bank of Canada will increase the rates again in January with hopes to stabilize its economy.

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2.7 Commodity prices

Figure 14: Brent Crude Oil Price

Oil – one of the most important commodities is suffering from a crisis. Canada has decided to hold its
borrowing costs steady to figure out the proper interest rates for the oil crisis (Argitis 2018). Meanwhile,
Australia is also having a hard time dealing with this crisis. Oil prices and iron ores prices both saw a drop
in late November with iron ore fell by 6% and oil fell by 20% (Skinner 2018). Oil prices dropping could
mean that energy companies will have to reduce the costs in order to keep making profit, also the
demand for oil will increase while the supply might not increase, thus, putting Canada’s and Australia’s
both import and export in risks. On the other hand, in U.S., oil price also dropped but there are not many
concerns compared to other countries as the oil price in the U.S. is in a sweets spot, not so high that they
are a burden tax on consumers and not so low as to bankrupt energy companies (Kraus 2018). This is
attributed to the actions of President Donald Trump, who is the one causing the oil prices to plunge to
make a deal with the Arabs in hopes to reduce the worlds commodity prices inflation.

2.8 Market View Summary

All factors considered, with the advantage gained from trade tensions, well-controlled inflation, growing
interest and positive speculation, USD is being supported by most of the analyzed criteria. Meanwhile,
AUD’s future looks bleak, resulted from low interest policy, negative influences from the trade-war with
modest speculation, AUD would likely to depreciate sharply against USD. CAD, however, is predicted to
lose its value with a smaller degree compared to AUD.

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Heavily impacted by the ongoing tension, the gap between AUD and USD would be more significant. The
current spot rate of AUD/USD and USD/CAD are 0.7220 and 1.3345 respectively. Our team anticipate
there will be 600 pips and 150 pips differences in AUD/USD, USD/CAD respectively toward USD, at the
end of six months, starting from January.

3. TRADING STRATEGY & RISK MANAGEMENT

Given all market analysis and forecast movements, there are two plans for each currency pair, our team’s
primary objective is to square off at the end of 6-month trading session, then managing loss and
maximizing profit should come after.

Assume our proposal for 150million AUD and 50million CAD budget is permitted. Our strategies are as
follow:

 AUD/USD

Considering the promising speculation, we heavily spend our resource onto this pair, along with an
alternative option in case there are unexpected outcomes.

Regarding the currency distribution, we only spend 70% of total AUD at the beginning and 30% remaining
would only be called in next two weeks if the trend meets our condition. Subsequently, we would
gradually buy back AUD by the end of six months to prevent long-term risk. Specifically, 60%, 25%, 15%
of AUD would be taken back at the end of the fourth, fifth and sixth month.

Firstly, our forecast for the spot rates of each milestone is as follow, included USD/CAD:

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Subsequently, we move to the spot-rate negotiation process. Since we need to get rid of the depreciating
currency (AUD), our rate should be moved to left to attract more AUD buyers in first two transactions,
then in the buying AUD back periods, rates should only stick to average market value, as the demand for
USD is high at that time. Our targets are other banks and corporations who seek to square their long
position of AUD, the agreement rate should be acceptable for buyers and favorable for risk minimizing.
Following is our expected rates: (included USD/CAD)

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Specifically, we created a blotter to track our primary objective, given that 30% of AUD will only be
exchanged if the 2-week rate does not raise more than 150 pips:

According to the data above, here is our detail profit/loss table combined with T account for BIDV’s
perfect scenario:

Date Transactions Bid Ask Into USD AUD USD

Generate 150 AUD
1/1/2019 150
balance
1-5/01/2019 Sell 105 AUD to buy USD 0.7218 75.789 -105 75.7890
Sell remaining 45 AUD
17/01/2019 0.7180 32.31 -45 32.3100
to buy USD
Buy 90 AUD back by Sell
30/04/2019 0.6910 62.19 90 -62.1900
USD
Buy 37.5 AUD back by
30/05/2019 0.6710 25.1625 37.5 -25.1625
Sell USD
Buy 22.5 AUD back by
30/06/2019 0.6615 14.88375 22.5 -14.8838
Sell USD
End of period 150 5.8628

In a perfect world, we will square off our AUD amount and generate 5.8628 million USD, which is a huge
profit.

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 USD/CAD

50mil CAD is our back-up project, aiming to compensate the underwhelming outcome if AUD/USD rate
becomes unfavorable. Therefore, 80% of the principal will be traded back after the third month for
security purpose. According with the first two tables above, the plan for this pair is less complicated and
expressed as below:

Eventually, the best outcome would reward the company 0.2051 million USD as profit.

 Risk Management

In case the AUD/USD rate falls in the wrong track, we have provided a back-up strategies to minimize
loss. Firstly, if the rate suddenly increases instead of falling as expect, a cut-loss rate is prepared if the
situation is out of control. Secondly, by dividing into two cash flows, 30% of AUD could be reconsidered

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if the trend turns unexpected in two weeks. Lastly, trading in both rate makes us less dependent on
AUD/USD, although that way would not bring highest potential profitability.

4. CONCLUSION
After having evaluated the pairs’ past performance and those macro-indicators that affect the exchange
rate in the next six months, we reached a conclusion that USD would increase its value against AUD and
CAD in the coming period. Accordingly, we form a trading strategies for BIDV to go long for USD from the
budget of AUD and CAD, that would possibly result in large profit. The best possible outcome would gain
up to 5.8628 plus 0.2051 million USD in total, after squaring off our position. Nonetheless, there are
some identified risks and obstacles that BIDV has to pay attention in order to prevent loss.

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5. APPENDIX
*Note: All charts are extracted from Thomson Reuters Eikon

Figure 1: AUD/USA Daily Exchange rate 2016 -2018.

Figure 2: AUD/USA Weekly Exchange rate 2016-2018 (Candlestick chart).

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Figure 3: CAD/USD Daily Exchange rate 2016 -2018.

Figure 4: CAD/USD Weekly Exchange rate 2016-2018 (Candlestick chart).

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Figure 5: Australia Inflation Rate (current and forecast)

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Figure 6: U.S. Inflation Rate (current and forecast)

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Figure 7: Canada Inflation Rate (current and forecast)

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Figure 8: US Interest Rate (current)

Figure 9: Canada Interest Rate (current)

Figure 10: Australia Interest Rate (current)

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Figure 11: Australia Growth Rate (current and forecast)

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Figure 12: U.S. GDP Growth (current and forecast)

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Figure 13: Canada GDP Growth (current and forecast)

Figure 14: Brent Crude Oil Price

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6. REFERENCES

Appelbaum, B, 2018, “Interest Rates Likely to Rise in December, Recap of Fed Meeting Shows,” The New
York Times, 29 November, viewed 11 December,
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/business/economy/fed-minutes-november-
meeting.html?fbclid=IwAR158oct09hljM6htikfNMnHSQaUk8gs53Fi9zSJ8MY26cn8SX3KNHTfMOs>.

Argitis, T, (2018), ’Bank of Canada Set to Hold Amid Oil Crisis: Decision-Day Guide‘, Bloomberg, 5
December, viewed 10 December, <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/bank-of-
canada-set-to-hold-amid-oil-crisis-decision-day-guide>.

Bagshaw, E, (2018), ‘Donald Trump's trade war will cost Australia's economy at least $36 billion’, The
Sydney Morning Herald, 7 September, viewed 10 December,
<https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/donald-trump-s-trade-war-will-cost-australia-s-economy-at-
least-36-billion-20180907-p502dr.html>.

Bednarik, V (2018), ‘ AUD/USD Forecast: It's all about China’, FXstreet, 07 Dec, Viewed 10 December,
<https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-usd-forecast-its-all-about-china-201812071445>.

Businesstimes, 2018, “Australia central bank hold rates as home prices fall” The Business Times, 4
December, viewed at 11 December, <https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-
economy/australia-central-bank-hold-rates-as-home-prices-
fall?fbclid=IwAR18OaqAva963SRvBnFiL5UsyG-LWVituTHPflLBnsIULJ8UoAIaLv1N8iA>.

Centralbanknews, (2018), ‘Australia holds rate, raises 2018, 2019 growth forecast’ , Central Bank News,
5 November, viewed 10 December, <http://www.centralbanknews.info/2018/11/australia-holds-rate-
raises-2018-2019.html>.

Commbank, (2018), ‘WHAT MAKES THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR MOVE?’, CommonwealthbankofAustralia,

3 August, viewed 10 December, <https://www.commbank.com.au/guidance/economy/what-makes-the-
australian-dollar-move--201605.html>.

Hedrick-Wong, Y (2018), ‘Trump Cannot Wage Both A Trade War And Currency War Against China’,
Forbes, 30 July, viewed 10 December

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<https://www.forbes.com/sites/yuwahedrickwong/2018/07/30/trump-cannot-wage-both-a-trade-war-
and-currency-war-against-china/#7005391b31a9>.

Hutchens, G, 2018, “Australia's economy hits 3.4% annual growth rate, exceeding expectations,” The
Guardian, 5 September, viewed at 11 December,
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/05/australias-economic-growth-exceeds-
expectations-at-34>.

Krauss, C, (2018), ‘Falling Oil Prices May Make Trump Happy but They Pose Risks for U.S’, The New York
Times, 29 November, viewed 10 December, <https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/business/oil-
prices-trump.html>.

Ljunggren, D, 2018, “Bank of Canada says it will continue to raise interest rates gradually,” Reuters, 28
September ,viewed 11 December, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-cenbank/bank-of-
canada-says-it-will-continue-to-raise-interest-rates-gradually-
idUSKCN1M72VG?fbclid=IwAR3s3zf3HszZghSG1afwIQft-oijdikwp4l8e84aUj75lm2U6R-OChnqHRE>.

Mutikani, L, 2018, “U.S. economic growth slows slightly in third quarter; outlook less...,” Reuters, 26
October, viewed at 11 December, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-economic-
growth-slows-less-than-expected-in-third-quarter-idUSKCN1N00AF>.

OctaFx, (2018),’ World Markets Decline After Huawei CFO Arrest’, FXStreet, 6 December, viewed 10
December, <https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/world-markets-decline-after-huawei-cfo-arrest-
201812060718>.

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