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Automobiles

India APRIL 02, 2018


UPDATE
BSE-30: 33,255

Tractors and MHCVs continue to surprise positively. March 2018 was a strong
month for the domestic automotive industry with robust volume growth across segments.
MHCV industry volumes increased by 16-18% yoy on a relatively high base last year.
Demand in rural India climbs up, which is reflected in strong demand for two-wheelers
and tractors. Industry volumes in these segments increased by 18-40% yoy; all major
OEMs (except Bajaj Auto) reported strong double-digit yoy volume growth.

Passenger vehicle industry volumes likely to have grown by 8-9% yoy in March 2018

As per our calculations, passenger vehicle industry volumes grew by 8-9% yoy in March 2018.
Maruti’s overall volumes increased by 15% yoy to 160,598 units in March 2018 led by 16% yoy
growth in domestic volumes and 2% yoy growth in exports. Domestic volume growth for the
company was driven by (1) 24% yoy growth in compact SUV volumes driven by ramp-up of
production for Vitara Brezza and (2) 21% yoy growth in entry-segment volumes due to a low
base. Premium hatchback segment volumes increased by 11% yoy while vans volumes
increased by 18% yoy. In terms of other OEMs, Hyundai’s domestic volumes increased by 7%
yoy, while Honda and Toyota’s volumes declined by 28% yoy and 9% yoy respectively in March
2018. Tata Motors reported ~31% yoy volume growth in the passenger vehicle segment led by
the success of new launches—Nexon and Tiago.

M&M’s overall volumes grow 20% yoy in March 2018; strong growth in tractor segment

Mahindra reported 20% yoy growth in overall volumes, which was driven by (1) 11% yoy
growth in the auto segment and (2) 46% yoy growth in tractor volumes. Utility vehicle volumes
increased by 5% yoy while commercial vehicle segment volumes grew by 11% yoy on a high
base (volumes up 31% yoy in March 2017). The underlying demand in the tractor segment
remains strong, which were reflected in sales volume of Escorts as well. Escorts reported 67%
yoy volume growth in tractors in March 2018 and 26% yoy growth in FY2018.

Another month of strong volume growth in MHCVs; industry volumes up 16-18% yoy

We reckon that domestic MHCV industry volumes grew by 16-18% yoy in March 2018 on a
relatively high base as there was pre-buying in March 2017 ahead of the implementation of BS-
IV emission norms from April 1, 2017. As per our checks, while freight demand is not that
buoyant, industry growth over the past few months has been largely driven by (1) overloading
ban in certain key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, AP, etc., (2) easy availability of
finance at low interest rates and almost zero equity contribution by the fleet operators and
(3) pickup in road construction activity. In terms of OEMs, Tata reported 34% yoy growth in
domestic CV volumes led by 50% plus growth in LCV volumes and 21% yoy growth in MHCV
trucks. Ashok Leyland reported 12% yoy growth in overall MHCV volumes while VECV’s
domestic MHCV volumes increased by 26% yoy in March 2018.
Hitesh Goel
Two-wheeler industry volumes likely to have grown by 18-20% yoy in March 2018 hitesh.goel@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0878
Domestic two-wheeler industry volumes increased by 18-20% yoy aided by improvement in
Nishit Jalan
demand in rural markets and low base (volume were flat yoy in March 2017). All major OEMs nishit.jalan@kotak.com
(except Bajaj Auto) reported strong double-digit yoy growth in volumes. Hero reported 20% Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0877
yoy volume growth while Honda’s volumes increased by 22% yoy. TVS Motor reported 27%
yoy volume growth, which was driven by (1) 22% yoy growth in domestic 2W volumes and
(2) 55% yoy growth in exports. Bajaj Auto’s domestic two-wheeler volumes increased by only
5% yoy while Royal Enfield reported 27% yoy growth in volumes in March 2018.

Kotak Institutional Equities Research


kotak.research@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000

For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
India Automobiles

Exhibit 1: Maruti Suzuki reported 15% yoy growth in volumes in March 2018
Maruti Suzuki monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
M800, Alto, A-Star, Wagon R 30,973 38,897 39,089 25,524 42,310 35,428 38,479 32,490 38,204 32,146 33,316 33,789 37,511 413,981 427,183
Swift, Baleno, Ritz, Celerio, Dzire 61,865 63,584 51,234 40,496 63,116 74,012 72,804 62,480 65,447 53,336 67,868 65,213 68,885 617,462 748,475
Gypsy, Ertiga, S-Cross, Brezza 18,311 20,638 22,608 13,879 25,781 21,442 19,900 23,382 23,072 19,276 20,693 20,324 22,764 195,741 253,759
Omni and Eeco 11,628 13,938 12,593 9,208 15,714 13,931 13,735 12,669 13,565 11,420 12,250 12,425 13,689 152,009 155,137
Ciaz 4,918 7,024 4,724 3,950 6,377 6,457 5,603 4,107 4,009 2,382 5,062 4,897 4,321 64,448 58,913
Light commercial vehicle 304 411 428 206 703 730 879 872 1,003 726 1,411 1,252 1,412 900 10,033
Total domestic 127,999 144,492 130,676 93,263 154,001 152,000 151,400 136,000 145,300 119,286 140,600 137,900 148,582 1,444,541 1,653,500
Exports 11,764 6,723 6,286 13,131 11,345 11,701 11,671 10,446 9,300 10,780 10,751 11,924 12,016 124,062 126,074
Total volumes 139,763 151,215 136,962 106,394 165,346 163,701 163,071 146,446 154,600 130,066 151,351 149,824 160,598 1,568,603 1,779,574
Yoy change (%)
M800, Alto, A-Star, Wagonr (15.6) 21.9 18.1 (7.9) 20.7 (0.2) (13.3) (4.2) (1.8) 2.0 (12.2) 2.1 21.1 3.2
Swift, Baleno, Ritz, Celerio, Dzire 23.9 30.1 4.3 (3.7) 18.1 52.4 34.1 18.8 24.8 16.3 15.4 31.5 11.3 21.2
Gypsy, Ertiga, S-Cross, Brezza 31.8 28.6 66.3 43.0 48.3 27.6 8.0 29.8 34.0 19.9 26.8 13.8 24.3 29.6
Omni and Eeco (9.8) (4.0) 3.5 (6.7) 6.6 8.6 0.9 (0.9) 10.8 23.8 (13.6) (12.5) 17.7 2.1
Ciaz (10.3) 23.2 (8.9) 41.1 23.5 3.9 (14.4) (35.4) (26.2) (35.8) (22.5) (16.8) (12.1) (8.6)
Total domestic 7.7 23.4 15.5 1.2 22.4 26.7 10.3 9.9 15.0 12.1 5.0 14.2 16.1 14.5
Exports 12.6 (29.4) (36.3) 95.8 0.1 (4.7) (1.3) 4.2 0.8 (6.2) 2.8 24.9 2.1 1.6
Total volumes 8.1 19.5 11.3 7.6 20.6 23.8 9.3 9.5 14.1 10.3 4.8 15.0 14.9 13.4

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 2: Mahindra & Mahindra: overall volumes increased by 20% yoy in March 2018
Mahindra & Mahindra monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
Passenger UVs (incl. Verito) 25,352 19,325 20,290 16,170 20,962 19,325 25,327 23,903 16,030 15,543 23,686 22,389 26,555 236,980 249,505
Commercial Vehicles 22,908 15,066 16,255 15,131 15,023 16,303 19,201 19,284 15,554 17,542 21,002 20,946 25,496 180,948 216,803
3-wheelers 5,062 3,438 4,057 2,560 3,777 3,906 5,928 6,126 4,455 3,894 4,744 5,138 6,602 52,306 54,625
Exports (Auto sector) 2,709 1,528 1,293 1,855 1,983 2,582 3,207 2,343 2,531 2,221 2,626 2,654 3,424 37,364 28,221
Auto division 56,031 39,357 41,895 35,716 41,745 42,116 53,663 51,656 38,570 39,200 52,058 51,127 62,077 507,598 549,154
Tractors (Dom + Exp) 19,337 26,001 25,599 32,933 18,832 16,516 45,563 40,262 22,754 18,288 21,875 20,483 28,277 262,992 317,383
Total 75,368 65,358 67,494 68,649 60,577 58,632 99,226 91,918 61,324 57,488 73,933 71,610 90,354 770,590 866,537
Yoy change (%)
Passenger Uvs (incl. Verito) (5.7) (14.7) 3.3 (5.3) 20.8 5.9 23.3 (3.4) 17.6 (6.9) 17.9 8.7 4.7 5.3
Commercial vehicles 31.4 16.4 24.0 11.8 14.1 16.5 19.4 6.8 22.3 23.9 51.2 27.9 11.3 19.8
3-wheelers 9.0 (8.4) 4.9 (41.6) (21.0) (17.0) 0.0 3.3 12.7 12.6 55.2 50.0 30.4 4.4
Exports (Auto sector) (27.8) (39.0) (68.0) (53.9) (52.3) (29.2) (10.5) (28.5) (9.5) 8.2 16.1 15.4 26.4 (24.5)
Auto division 6.3 (6.0) 3.0 (8.4) 5.8 3.8 16.3 (0.7) 16.5 7.8 32.5 19.7 10.8 8.2
Tractors (Dom + Exp) 31.7 21.6 11.2 9.1 7.3 22.0 49.1 (10.9) 31.8 30.2 37.5 36.5 46.2 20.7
Total 11.8 3.3 6.0 (0.8) 6.3 8.3 29.4 (5.4) 21.8 14.0 33.9 24.1 19.9 12.5

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 3: Tata Motors reported 33% yoy volume growth in March 2018; domestic MHCV truck volumes increased by 21% yoy
Tata Motors monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
MHCVs 20,245 5,915 10,286 10,948 12,796 14,977 17,007 15,508 17,621 21,851 18,431 20,706
LCVs 21,154 12,133 17,131 18,107 18,337 19,573 23,559 21,085 22,386 24,640 25,855 24,970
Total CVs 41,399 18,048 27,417 29,055 31,133 34,550 40,566 36,593 40,007 46,491 44,286 45,676 55,274 385,029 449,096
UVs 2,446 1,627 1,104 1,193 2,837 2,883 5,218 5,201 5,676 6,177 6,854 6,393
Cars 13,300 11,297 9,840 10,110 12,246 11,555 12,333 11,403 11,708 8,252 13,484 11,692
Total PVs 15,746 12,924 10,944 11,303 15,083 14,438 17,551 16,604 17,384 14,429 20,338 18,085 20,609 157,293 189,692
Total sales 57,145 30,972 38,361 40,358 46,216 48,988 58,117 53,197 57,391 60,920 64,624 63,761 75,883 542,322 638,788
Yoy change (%)
MHCVs (1.4) (54.9) (32.7) (11.7) 2.7 22.6 15.9 (0.8) 53.2 57.6 11.7 19.1
LCVs (10.6) (21.5) 7.3 (5.9) 8.9 15.1 24.0 3.2 56.3 54.6 55.1 40.6
Total CVs (6.3) (36.8) (12.2) (8.2) 6.3 18.3 20.5 1.5 54.9 56.0 33.5 30.0 33.5 16.6
UVs 45.8 5.6 21.3 44.3 93.7 51.3 206.9 159.5 335.9 371.5 179.2 174.3
Cars 85.3 21.8 24.2 (14.4) (1.2) (3.2) (7.1) (22.7) (0.5) (16.0) 25.7 15.8
Total PVs 77.8 19.5 23.9 (10.5) 8.8 4.3 17.2 (0.9) 33.0 29.5 54.3 45.5 30.9 20.6
Total sales 7.7 (21.4) (4.3) (8.8) 7.1 13.8 19.5 0.7 47.5 48.8 39.4 34.0 32.8 17.8

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

2 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH


Automobiles India

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland reported 20% yoy volume growth in March 2018; MHCV volumes up 12% yoy
Ashok Leyland monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
LCV 3,424 2,558 2,932 3,128 2,955 3,067 3,566 3,804 3,819 3,303 4,458 4,455 5,396 31,770 43,441
MHCV 15,258 4,532 6,139 9,243 9,026 10,567 11,802 9,107 10,641 15,950 13,643 13,726 17,057 113,315 131,432
Total CVs 18,682 7,090 9,071 12,371 11,981 13,634 15,370 12,911 14,460 19,253 18,101 18,181 22,453 145,085 174,873
Yoy change (%)
LCV (1.1) 10.8 21.9 29.1 27.9 13.8 15.3 28.6 44.3 69.5 58.3 62.7 57.6 36.7
MHCV 15.2 (42.4) (17.8) 6.4 10.3 28.9 31.7 (4.8) 53.6 81.6 13.2 21.2 11.8 16.0
Total CVs 11.9 (30.4) (8.1) 11.4 14.2 25.1 27.5 3.0 51.0 79.4 21.7 29.2 20.2 20.5

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 5: VECV reported 30% yoy volume growth in March 2018; domestic MHCV volumes increased by 26% yoy
VECV monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Domestic sales
LCV 1,826 1,230 1,708 1,186 1,144 976 1,252 1,228 1,018 1,410 1,664 1,499 2,193
MHCV 4,584 1,348 2,245 2,196 2,570 2,842 3,832 3,235 3,044 3,635 4,346 4,284 5,787
Total 6,410 2,578 3,953 3,382 3,714 3,818 5,084 4,463 4,062 5,045 6,010 5,783 7,980 49,533 55,865
Export sales
LCV 201 168 143 184 234 247 162 166 65 111 154 329 404
MHCV 477 331 443 319 368 456 688 537 600 799 548 684 861
Total 678 499 586 503 602 703 850 703 665 910 702 1,013 1,265 8,033 9,001
Total sales 7,088 3,077 4,539 3,885 4,316 4,521 5,934 5,166 4,727 5,955 6,712 6,796 9,245 57,566 64,866
Yoy change (%)
LCV 12.0 (17.5) 3.6 (19.8) 4.1 (9.3) 10.4 9.5 59.8 65.1 59.8 9.9 20.1
MHCV 6.3 (57.2) (26.5) (20.9) 0.2 19.7 27.1 18.4 71.9 50.5 57.7 23.7 26.2
Total domestic 7.8 (44.5) (16.0) (20.5) 1.4 10.7 22.6 15.8 68.7 54.3 58.3 19.8 24.5 12.8
Export sales
LCV 3.1 (15.6) (45.0) (27.6) (22.0) 22.9 (7.4) (19.8) (75.0) 63.2 (29.4) 213.3 101.0
MHCV (3.4) (31.9) (40.5) (13.3) 4.8 1.6 67.4 38.4 50.4 26.4 26.0 53.4 80.5
Total exports (1.6) (27.2) (41.7) (19.1) (7.5) 8.2 45.1 18.2 0.9 30.0 7.5 83.8 86.6 12.1
Total sales 6.9 (42.2) (20.5) (20.4) 0.0 10.3 25.3 16.1 54.1 50.0 50.9 26.3 30.4 12.7

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 6: Escorts reported 67% yoy volume growth in March 2018


Escorts monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
Escorts 7,079 4,899 6,886 5,776 5,430 4,575 10,353 10,205 5,119 3,606 5,316 6,462 11,790 63,786 80,417
Domestic 7,014 4,760 6,770 5,669 5,275 4,398 10,144 10,001 4,941 3,476 5,160 6,295 11,557 62,699 78,446
Exports 65 139 116 107 155 177 209 204 178 130 156 167 233 1,087 1,971
Yoy change (%)
Escorts 31.0 19.9 29.2 (16.8) 34.5 22.9 34.0 13.8 6.5 13.1 45.6 52.2 66.5 26.1
Domestic 31.7 17.6 28.9 (17.7) 33.4 19.9 32.4 12.9 5.2 14.2 47.1 53.4 64.8 25.1
Exports (14.5) 265.8 46.8 94.5 86.7 221.8 242.6 83.8 64.8 (9.7) 7.6 16.8 258.5 81.3

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3


India Automobiles

Exhibit 7: Bajaj reported 23% yoy volume growth in March 2018 led by strong growth in three-wheeler volumes
Bajaj monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Domestic motorcycles 151,449 161,930 156,523 108,109 164,915 171,664 247,418 211,553 141,948 112,930 163,111 175,489 158,987 2,001,391 1,974,577
Export motorcycles 92,786 132,002 120,592 96,558 100,267 112,197 122,260 114,225 122,022 115,832 125,825 122,025 110,952 1,218,541 1,394,757
Total motorcycles 244,235 293,932 277,115 204,667 265,182 283,861 369,678 325,778 263,970 228,762 288,936 297,514 269,939 3,219,932 3,369,334
Domestic three-wheelers 17,830 15,957 17,524 18,866 21,582 28,995 34,361 35,657 37,887 36,579 39,082 38,534 44,613 253,226 369,637
Exports three-wheelers 10,132 19,911 19,117 21,345 20,963 22,175 24,713 21,029 24,601 27,206 25,129 21,835 19,796 192,792 267,820
Total three-wheelers 27,962 35,868 36,641 40,211 42,545 51,170 59,074 56,686 62,488 63,785 64,211 60,369 64,409 446,018 637,457
Total sales 272,197 329,800 313,756 244,878 307,727 335,031 428,752 382,464 326,458 292,547 353,147 357,883 334,348 3,665,950 4,006,791
Yoy change (%)
Domestic motorcycles (14.3) (19.2) (13.0) (35.9) (5.4) (1.7) 7.3 (0.7) 1.6 5.9 36.1 23.2 5.0 (1.3)
Exports motorcycles 6.1 44.3 (5.4) (7.8) (9.8) 6.7 20.5 20.4 24.5 19.9 36.7 18.9 19.6 14.5
Total motorcycles (7.6) 0.7 (9.8) (25.1) (7.1) 1.4 11.4 5.8 11.0 12.5 36.4 21.4 10.5 4.6
Domestic three-wheelers (35.1) (37.9) (28.2) (24.8) (8.9) 13.3 37.0 38.3 156.7 180.1 154.0 129.1 150.2 46.0
Exports three-wheelers (27.9) 59.1 20.2 14.9 1.7 11.8 25.5 (6.5) 41.1 197.1 70.9 86.1 95.4 38.9
Total three-wheelers (32.7) (6.1) (9.1) (7.9) (4.0) 12.6 31.9 17.4 94.1 187.1 113.4 111.4 130.3 42.9
Total sales (11.0) (0.1) (9.8) (22.7) (6.7) 3.0 13.8 7.4 20.9 29.7 46.0 30.8 22.8 9.3

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 8: Hero reported 20% yoy volume growth in March 2018


Hero MotoCorp monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Total sales 609,951 591,306 633,884 624,185 623,269 678,797 720,739 631,105 605,270 472,731 641,501 629,597 730,473 6,664,240 7,587,130
Yoy change (%) 0.6 (3.5) 8.7 13.6 17.1 10.1 6.8 (4.8) 26.1 43.2 31.7 20.0 19.8 13.8

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 9: Royal Enfield reported 27% yoy volume growth in March 2018
Royal Enfield monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
Royal Enfield 60,113 60,142 60,696 63,160 65,761 67,977 70,431 69,492 70,126 66,968 77,878 73,077 76,087 666,490 820,492
Domestic 58,549 58,564 58,647 61,671 64,459 66,872 69,393 68,014 67,776 65,367 76,205 71,327 74,209 651,107 801,230
Exports 1,564 1,578 2,049 1,489 1,302 1,105 1,038 1,478 2,350 1,601 1,673 1,750 1,878 15,383 19,262
Yoy change (%)
Royal Enfield 17.1 24.8 24.9 24.6 23.2 22.0 21.8 17.5 22.4 16.7 30.5 25.0 26.6 23.1
Domestic 17.0 24.5 24.2 25.7 23.7 22.2 21.8 16.5 21.4 16.1 31.1 25.7 26.7 23.1
Exports 24.0 36.0 49.3 (8.2) 4.2 12.1 17.4 97.6 59.9 48.0 8.4 2.8 20.1 25.2

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 10: TVS Motor’s volumes increased by 27% yoy in March 2018
TVS Motor’s monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends (units)
Total volumes
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 2017 2018
Sales volume (units)
Motorcycles 95,671 99,890 118,014 112,146 109,427 111,927 143,923 125,409 93,202 95,281 98,649 113,296 134,412 1,077,086 1,355,576
Scooters 84,173 81,443 85,681 90,448 92,378 114,354 121,601 106,910 78,397 83,640 85,521 93,573 100,972 870,099 1,134,918
Mopeds 71,135 59,674 71,731 66,044 61,531 82,865 85,330 76,045 71,724 68,709 78,825 74,073 80,381 910,519 876,932
Three-wheelers 5,362 5,303 6,581 5,153 7,835 8,417 8,996 9,047 8,642 9,279 8,806 9,731 10,894 69,254 98,684
Total sales 256,341 246,310 282,007 273,791 271,171 317,563 359,850 317,411 251,965 256,909 271,801 290,673 326,659 2,926,958 3,466,110
Yoy change (%)
Total motorcycles 10.3 10.4 22.3 17.5 15.1 (2.0) 17.2 3.2 37.3 63.7 63.7 92.0 40.5 25.9
Scooters 23.5 28.6 30.9 33.9 35.8 49.3 43.3 15.7 7.2 50.6 22.1 35.6 20.0 30.4
Mopeds (0.8) (12.9) (6.1) (14.2) (20.0) 7.8 6.9 (15.4) (8.1) 4.4 9.7 (5.3) 13.0 (3.7)
Total three-wheelers (8.7) 11.7 20.5 (27.7) (1.6) 26.9 54.9 88.3 46.9 72.1 81.6 86.3 103.2 42.5
Total sales 10.2 8.5 15.7 10.8 9.3 15.8 22.7 2.8 12.0 38.9 31.3 37.5 27.4 18.4

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH


Disclosures

"I, Hitesh Goel, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."

Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe


Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional
70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for
which Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the
previous 12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
32.0% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% 28.0% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to
25.0%
deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce
= We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over
20%
15.0% the next 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver
less than -5% returns over the next 12 months. O ur
10% target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
applicable regulations. As of 31/12/2017 Kotak
0%
Institutional Equities Investment Research had
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
investment ratings on 200 equity securities.

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities As of December 31, 2017

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers


Definitions of rating

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.

ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.

REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.

SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.

Other definitions

Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers

NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.

RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.

NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 5


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We offer our research services to primarily institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are registered with us
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We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
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