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Strategy Analytics at Mobile World Congress 2017

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5G Use Cases & Challenges: Observations from MWC on the Path to 5G

STRATEGY ANALYTICS
5G Use Cases & Challenges
March 1, 2017

March 2017 Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2017 2


AGENDA: 5G Use Cases & Challenges

Can IOT Fund the 5G Business Case?


01 5G Deployment Timing & Scenarios

Operator Plans for 5G


02 US & Asia as Lead Markets

5G Use Cases
03 Where Should Operators Focus Their Efforts?

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5G Will Do Whatever You Want it to Do -
Even What is Not Yet Imagined

• 5G progress involves
many ecosystem Smart Cities
Autonomous
players to develop use Smart Grid
Vehicles

cases Wearables &


Sensors
Traffic Control

V2V / V2X
• Creating 5G pull -
Low-latency
Cloud Gaming
Medical Monitoring
5G Object Tracking
Customer/user driven Telesurgery
Low-rate, Latency-

or industry driven use Disaster,


Emergency
Tolerant, High-Security

Remote Industrial
cases for 5G? Management
Control
High Traffic Venues Process
• Key to 5G is flexibility Immersive Video
Mobile Holographic Display
Automation

to support use cases Augmented Reality

not yet imagined Sources: 4G Americas, Qualcomm, WRC,


districoffuture.eu, ExtremeTech, Groupe
Canam, SmartGrid.gov, WSJ, marinscope.com,
Naledi3D.com, Q2 Serves.uk.com
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Initial 5G IOT for Mission Critical Services:
Strong Window of Opportunity for NB-IOT & Others
3GPP 5G Use Cases

• Mission critical IOT (low


latency / high reliability) in
Phase G: “ept 8 freeze
• (non-standalone NR 2017?)
• Massive MTC (low
bandwidth, low power,
massive connections) in
Phase 2 5G: Mar freeze Source: 3GPP New Services and Markets Technology Enablers (SMARTER)

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5G Timing Challenges: Show Me The Money
• Strong eMBB opportunities around immersive video, cloud gaming, etc.
though incremental value of traffic questionable
IOT Revenue, 2025

7%

29%

64%
• IOT value more in software & services
than in network layer, pushing market to
new (shared) investment models?
• Majority of pre-2025 IOT use cases need Hardware Connectivity Services
a foundation in 4.5G Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2017 March 2017 6
How Far Can LTE Advanced Pro Go in
Delivering 5G Service Features?
• 4G will have a long life with LTE-A Pro and Gigabit LTE.
• 2G peaked 11 years after 3G launch, 3G eight years after 4G
• Capacity and performance advances with
• C-RAN & NFV/SDN
• Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC)
• Unlicensed spectrum & Wi-Fi
• Latency the key challenge

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US & Asia To Dominate 5G Connections

Europe
110M Asia
Americas By 2025

170M 340M
By 2025
By 2025 MEA
35M
By 2025

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Asian and US Operators Leading Global 5G
Development — Different Motivations

Spectrum and Non-3GPP


Competition Standard for
early Commercial
deployment Service in 2019
5G Live
Field Trial 5GTF/MSIP
Interoperability
in 2017 3GPP and Migration

1st release of Concerns on


Big Event and 5G spec to be Industry
Capacity completed by Fragmentation
Demand Sep. 2018
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Verizon – Early 5G Focus on
“Wireless Fiber” for 2017
• Verizon 5G Technology Forum (V5GTF)
working on specs for early 5G trials
• Initially focused on 28 & 39 GHz spectrum
in XO acquisition
• Planning large scale trials in several small
towns in March 2017
• 5G as an extension to dark fiber, prepping
backhaul and densification to be 5G ready
• 5G-based IOT initiatives further out for VZ,
greater need to line up with standards for
mobility and connected objects
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Japan Targets Commercial 5G in 2020;
Korea with 5G and LTE Dual-Connectivity in 2018
NTT DOCOMO s G Trials i O t a d No
23 simultaneously 2018 5G Olympics:
connected devices Enhanced Viewing
in 4.5GHz band Experience and
with Huawei. IOT/Analytics
• 11.29Gbps
• 0.5ms latency

150kmph
mobility in Source: KT

28GHz band, KT s “y Vie :


with Samsung bobsleigh
• 2.5Gbps realistic media
service
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Which Use Cases Will Help Grow the 5G
Ecosystem in the Medium Term?

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5G FWA: Enhanced FIXED Broadband Use Case
• Business case for 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) relatively easy to make
based on complementary role to fiber coverage
• Operators offering Fixed LTE services also see logical extension with 5G
• Cost to pass & connect premises
with fiber the key variable for 5G
to match
• Strongest benefit connecting
additional streets/locations to

AU
existing fiber
 though also self-backhaul
potential

March 2017 Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2017 Source: nbn Full Year Results 2016 13
Transportation Use Cases:
BMW’s Vision of V2V via LTE & 5G

VMS to dashboard SPAT to dashboard

March 2017
Map updating, editing
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Smart City Use Cases:
Components of a Smart City
• Key Component Areas
• Smart Utilities (Energy/Water
etc.)
• Smart Health
• Smart Security
• Smart Transportation
• Smart Infrastructure
• Smart Buildings
• Smart Government
• Most will be served by 4.5G,
Enhanced by 5G coverage in
cities
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5G Enabling New Mobile Media Experience

G s “uper High “peed Data Tra s issio , Lo Late y a d Net ork


Slicing Bringing About Changes in Mobile Media Experience

Improved VR / AR Richer Content Telepresence


Domains Experience Streaming
More life-like: UHD, Low Nascent holography
UHD VOD streaming with technology on mobile
latency, Broader viewing multi-viewing angles
angle
Broader adoption of HD Multimodal and multi-
More immersive VR live streaming (up- dimensional interaction:
Use Cases games: 360 degree; linking) seen, heard and touched

Better AR e-commerce 360-degree audio 3D maps


experience

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VR STREAMING ENABLED BY 5G
5G can enable high-quality streaming as mobile device resolution improves

MOBILITY DEMANDS OF VR MORE LIMITED


VR-on-the-move is niche, greatest demand in static/safe environments

AR WILL NOT REQUIRE 5G


Significantly lower bandwidth requirements

5G LEADERS ARE INVESTING IN VR


AT&T investments include sports broadcasting, potential to showcase 5G VR

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5G Use Cases in the Smart Home
DIGITAL CONNECTED SMART INTELLIGENT
Early Use Cases for 5G in Smart Home
• Enabling connectivity to devices installed in basements,
attics, garages and other areas not served well by Wi-Fi
• Bringing connectivity to devices installed outside the
home including cameras, gate controls, and AC units

Possible Use Cases for 5G in Smart Home


• 5G could be used to connect security-focused devices like
cameras and smoke detectors
• Wi-Fi and other technologies can be used to link these
devices to home security and smart home networks

Unlikely Use Cases for 5G in Smart Home


• Many smart home devices can work adequately with Wi-
Fi, Bluetooth or other wireless technologies
• Advances in Wi-Fi and Bluetooth Mesh will extend their
capability to compete with 5G in many use cases
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Healthcare is not One Vertical, Though 5G Potential
in Patient Support
REMOTE PATIENT MONITORING
Monitor vital signs, video-conferencing support. Save on hospital visits.

EMERGENCY TREATMENT / DOCTOR ASSIST


HD video to facilitate remote support at accident scene.

PRE-DIAGNOSIS
Emergency rooms fed data from on-route ambulances to speed up treatment.

REMOTE DIAGNOSIS VIA VIDEO


HD video & sensor feeds enable remote diagnosis.

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Use Cases for 5G in Wearables & Retail

WEARABLES RETAIL
Hearables: Real time language Shopping: Magic Mirrors allow shopper
translation earbuds (one for each party) to interact with a touchscreen and
would need 5G speeds, 1ms latency, and virtually try o differe t gar e ts.
require edge compute resources.

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Why Does 5G in Retail Matter?
SMART DEVICES & IOT COMBINE TO CREATE RETAILER DIFFERENTIATION
Analysing customer data across multiple channels

IOT IS A CRITICAL PART OF THE OMNICHANNEL FUTURE


Connected objects can unlock customer value

CELLULAR FORMS VITAL PART OF RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE


Business Continuity, Payments, rapid retail expansion, etc.

IOT CAN HELP CONNECT CUSTOMERS TO TAILORED PRODUCTS


61% of retailers plan to implement real-time analytics in next 2 years (Vodafone)

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01 Fixed wireless applications will deliver the strongest business cases
for early 5G deployments

02 Initial 5G mobile use cases will be served by 4.5G and extended to


5G; 4.5G will continue to play role for coverage

03 IOT offers many 5G use cases, but its support for 5G network
investment must be built on much more than connectivity revenue

04 Latency gains the key service benefit of 5G v 4.5G though timeline


to 5G-only services is long

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Observations from MWC on the
Path to 5G
March 3, 2017

March 2017 23
Hybrid & Pre-5G Solutions in Commercial Trials
• Non-Standard Pre-5G solutions are here:
• Pre-Standard Commercial trials (US, Japan, South Korea, China leading)
• NR (New Radio) feasible today as Pre-standard for 2017 fixed wireless
services
• Pre-5G Modular Baseband Units (BBUs) on COTS Hardware and
Modular ZTE BBU
Massive MIMO (Select Examples)
• ZTE launched 5G modular IT BBU compatible with 2G/3G/4G/Pre5G
using latest Intel® processors
• ZTE Pre-5G FDD Massive MIMO achieves 2.6 Gbps single-site peak rate
• Huawei 3.5 GHz Massive MIMO with Softbank as part of G proje t
• Pre 5G Small Cell Densification ready for deployment with:
• 4G/4.5G/4.9G HetNets
• Hybrid LTE SON Interoperability

Source: Huawei ‘Massive MIMO Powers 5G Era


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Standard 5G Solutions Emerging in 2017
• 5G ready E2E platforms unveiled - Cloud RAN, C-RAN and
‘AN irtually e ery here :
• Eri sso s G Cloud Core, vRAN and New Radio (NR)/LTE
Interworking
• Nokia s commercial End-to-End 5G FIRST
• Huawei E2E 5G solution later in 2017
• )TE s full range of 5G pre-commercial base stations for
mmWave and sub-6 GHz frequencies
• Everyone talking Digital Transformation & Cloud Focus: “our e: Eri sso G Jour ey
• Both Ericsson and Nokia focusing on 5G
Transformation/Acceleration Services
• Hua ei fo usi g o Elasti Cloud-Nati e G “er i es
• G Net ork “li i g is here Nokia AirScale: Single RAN in Cloud
• Huawei, Samsung and DT demonstrated all cloud based 5G
E E Net ork “li i g (RAN, Transport, Core)
• Ericsson, Deutsche Telekom and SK Telecom successfully
demonstrated World's first 5G Transcontinental multi-
operator Federated Net ork “li i g
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Major Global Operator Debate on 5G Timing
• Global Mobile Industry Leaders Commit to Accelerate 5G New Radio (NR)
• Group of operators & vendors with proposal at 6-9 March 3GPP RAN meeting to
a elerate s hedule ith earlier release of easier No -Standalone 5G NR
• Earlier standards freeze by March 2018 to allow 2019 5G commercial launches
• But no universal support for proposals
• Telefónica's CTO believes 5G NR acceleration is 'Big Mistake ith G issues su h as
network slicing more important than radio
• Orange also objects to acceleration, wanting to see co-ordination on full 5G
system, not just NR

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Network Service Platforms Leveraging
Digital Transformation for Services
• Open Network Automation Platform (ONAP) merges Open Source platforms to
automate, design, orchestrate, and manage services and virtual functions:
• AT&T s ECOMP . Ora ge & Bell Ca ada o i i g ith Ope -O (China Mobile &
China Telecom)
• Nokia, Ericsson, HPE, Huawei, GENBAND, Metaswitch, Mavenir etc. offering
Telephony Application Server (TAS) platforms for Services across any transport
• Huawei's Cloud Nati e NFV solution awarded Best Technology Enabler Award
• Cisco a d ‘elia e Jio Build World s Largest All-IP Digital Services Platform

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Digital Operations Leveraging Service
Orchestration and OSS Systems
• AT&T, Orange and Colt with API standards for SDN Service
Orchestration (see our blog here)
• AMDOCS leveraging AT&T ECOMP Systems Integration for
new Orange Polska Trial
• Globe Telecom (Philippines) selects NEC/Netcracker OSS
suite and Service Orchestration solution for Agile
Virtualization
• Verizon Enterprise picks Ericsson orchestration platform for
enterprise managed services
• Nokia integrates Service Assurance and Service
Orchestration with acquisition of Comptel
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New Component Players Creating
Alternatives to Qualcomm
• Qualcomm Technologies announced its Snapdragon X50 5G modem,
supporting 5G NR in sub-6GHz and mmWave spectrum, available in 2019
• Though alternatives emerging:
• Intel 5G Modems, FlexRAN and NFV platforms. Nokia utilising the Intel 5G modem
for commercial 5G services in H2 2017
• A‘M: “oft a k s CEO, Masa “o , says it will deliver 1 trillion chips for IoT over the
next 20 years.

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