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Thank you for your Original Content, /u/dasoxarechamps2005! I've added your flair as
gratitude. Here is some important information about this post:
I hope this sticky assists you in having an informed discussion in this thread, or inspires you
to remix this data. For more information, please read this Wiki page.
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
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He also discusses ‘game theory’ around scenarios which could apply as such: if
men became less passive in their search for a mate then the remaining few more
active men would achieve greater success and so the gene pool would gradually
fill back up with active males.
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I’m saying that’s not really true, both men and women realize that women are
often the “choosers” and if anything that creates MORE incentive for men to
pursue them.
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TheeCaptainee 2 points · 6 months ago
I took my original point too far, but yes I think men in general are deluded
and falsely believe they have primary choice. They could overcome this as
individuals but not as a whole. I think this delusion encourages them to
reach out to women and is encouraged by women so women can choose.
Case in point is OP and I think his stats reflect that situation. But I think
many men find the whole situation difficult. I think men get frustrated and
struggle to understand why they don’t have the power to choose they think
they have. For example men see a beautiful woman in a bar and think “I
would sleep with 50% of women in this bar, I am slightly more than average
looking so if I chat her up I have a good chance of being successful” But
women take a much longer term view than 1 night so would probably only
consider dating 1 in 20 of the men in the bar. So the answer is often no and
men get upset by this and can’t understand why.
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
I would probably give up on it after as much rejection as you experienced. Props to you for
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continuing on.
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this explains something I saw in a recently - guy in a bar watching a ball game but
swiping right on everything - not even bothering to look at the pictures - I guess his
plan was to just get the match, worry about her looks later. Dude was above average
looking. if I see him again, I'll ask him about his percentage of success.
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However once you get a first reply, that's when effort matters.
Well, not according to this chart. What this chart shows, that's depressing, is
not the gender based rate of rejection, but the gender based rate of
ghosting.
This dude is rejected at a 66% rate by women, but even when they start a
conversation, he still gets ghosted 58% of that remaining third. So receiving
a message back from a woman essentially means nothing compared to no
message; about 2/3rds of the time, the end result will be the same.
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
Even conversations initiated BY HER that he replied to - which you would
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think would be a more solid contact - still had a 53% ghosted-by-her rate.
Notice the reciprocal probabilities for the woman, at least with respect to
this man. First, this dude is only rejecting women's advances 47% of the
time. Then, conversations initiated by her have just 40% ghosted-by-him
rate. If the woman waits for him to make the first move and then replies,
she will face an even lower 33% ghosted-by-him-during-conversations rate.
This really shows how the incentives are stacked (both ways). Guys have little
reason to put in effort because two thirds of women who express interest
in you are going to ghost you mid conversation. Women have little
reason to put in effort because guys won't ghost them no matter how much
they "nothing u?" their messages. Additinally, women learn not to value
approaches from men, even detailed and seemingly meaningful
approaches, because men are just playing the copypasta high quantity low
effort game (which women themselves taught men to play). The result is all
dating sites just devolve into pickup sites, you're just picking a photo to
bang.
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1. Men have taken your stance and the quality of messages is low. If
you have the same standard lines, then the conversation will feel
dull and generic.
2. Guys take too long to move things IRL. It can be hard to follow a
conversation when it's online, especially if people take a day or
half a day to respond. If you're interested in meeting up, try and
move things along after a couple of (longer) messages. You're
going to know in the first few whether you think this person is
sane enough to meet for coffee or not.
As a side note, a 40-47% chance of being ghosted isn't great. It's certainly
not "guys won't ghost them no matter [what]" level.
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(before continuing I want to clarify that we're both taking these single
man's stats as a model of the entire online dating world just for the
sake of argument)
Both the man and the woman put in equal "work" to find matches.
However, from that point: the man was the one who worked up the
courage to approach, came up with the clever or interesting or
specific approach message, and then had to wait to see if she
approved of him. All the woman has to do is sort and grade men,
which is the easier side of the work no matter how much she makes a
big deal out of lazy approaches and dick pics. What rankles about
online dating is that despite all of the asymmetry that led up to two
people finally having a conversation, women still ghost men mid-
conversation about twice as often as they get ghosted.
Because this man gets rejected sitewide about 66% off initial
approaches, and then still about 58% off conversations, women are
teaching men to see a woman's reply-to-approach as a meaningless
signal that doesn't warrant increased effort & commitment.
It boils down to this, if women want men to transition into high-effort
conversation faster & earlier, they should ghost them less (perhaps
also with an attendant increase in rejection rates, simply not starting
a conversation if you're not really attracted). Then men will see a
woman's initial reply as a high-value signal that warrants an
immediate increase in "investment."
I agree with you entirely that both genders behave very shitty on
dating sites, but they do it because they're educating each other in a
vicious circle.
A few years back there was a "feminist" dating app where users were
only alerted to matches if women made the first contact, otherwise
the match would be deleted within two days. It was all about putting
the power In Her Hands and similar marketing language. I remember
reading news articles about how women decided to use this system.
They would invariably send a low effort "hi" "sup" type message, and
then ghost the men if the men didn't reply with the usual high-effort
or funny approach. By doing this, they essentially made the first step
of the app (women approaching) a meaningless, irrelevant formality.
The only purpose of the "sup" message was to keep the app from
deleting the match. The man "approaching back" became the
informal, but essential, first step that actually determined if she would
have a conversation with him. That's simultaneously funny and sad.
Women's strategy is predetermined, perhaps not by some bullshit
Redpill evo-psych, but certainly by game theory. They can force men
to put in the asymmetric effort and men will still do it.
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PM_ME_STRAIGHT_TRAPS 18 points · 6 months ago
Women see 80% of men on such apps as below average. Maybe he was hot to you
(in a no homo way) but maybe only hits average with actual girls.
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I have a friend who is a pretty average looking girl, but she refuses to date
anything below some Ryan Gosling looking mother fucker. Simply because
enough hot dudes have slept with her that she thinks she is a 9/10 and it's
super harsh trying to talk to her because it's nearly impossible to explain to
her when she's crying after the 3rd guy dumped her this month that she is
playing way out of her league and these guys just want a quick fuck.
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points · 6 months ago
iop_throwaway
joke's on them: there's a new site I found full of hot local singles...
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acquire currency.
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
currency you become much more attractive to women, which you may or
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not remember to avoid.
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I've given up on online dating after my Tinder profile got 0 matches for a year.
Except bots, got plenty of those.
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1. He sent a message but didn’t get a response. 2. He never got an initial message
from her.
After finding my first actual relationship since joining Hinge, I decided to go through all my
matches since I joined and analyze the shit out of the data.
Hinge is a very unique dating app. It is similar to Tinder/Bumble in that you can "like" or
"pass" on other people's profiles, however it is very different all together. Your profile
consists of up to 6 pictures, basic personal information, and your answers to 3 of Hinge's
"questions", all of which can be specifically "liked" by someone viewing your profile. These
"questions" are a pretty fun way to show people a little more of who you are. They can range
from "What's your typical Sunday?" to "Worst Fad I Participated In". All in all, it is a much
more personalized online dating experience compared to your usual sites.
A match occurs when Person A "likes" either a picture or a question on Person B's profile.
Person B then gets a notification in their app where they can see both what Person A liked
and Person A's entire profile. Person B can then either accept or reject the match and invite
Person A to start the conversation.
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
Important Notes:
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The data is from matches between 1/19/2018 (join date) and 6/19/2018
This is in Chicago with distance preferences set to <5 miles
I am white and 1 year removed from college graduation (big school)
I was a premium member from 4/16/2018 to 6/19/2018 ($40 total)
Standard membership limits you to 10 "likes" per day. Premium gives you unlimited
and likely gives you more exposure
Tracking the amount of "likes" (that didn't result in a match) was not possible
SankeyMATIC Explanations:
Follow the dark vertical lines to follow the chart a bit easier
"Initiated" means who liked a picture/comment on the other person's profile first.
The "No Messages Sent" branches mean neither party sent a message to the other
person. Usually the person who initiates the match is expected to send the first
message.
Please forgive me for my flowchart skills. This is my first time using SankeyMATIC and I
tried to compile it in a way that makes the most sense.
Additional Charts/Graphics:
Matches By Month
Matches By Weekday
Matches By Time of Day
Matches By Weekday/Time of Day Combined you'll need to zoom in
Match Ethnicity
Type of First Messages Sent and Their Success Rates
Financial Breakdown:
Average cost per first date = 910/12 = $75.83
Average cost per total dates = 1,294/20 = $64.70
Total cost to find 1 relationship off Hinge = 1,294 (total spent on dates) + 40 (Hinge
Premium) = $1,334
Additional Statistics:
Average messages (total by both people) before arrangement of 1st date = 25.06
messages
Average days between match and 1st date = 9.69nice days
The matches in 2 out the 4 cancellations (all cancellations were by the girl) began with
a "compliment" first message sent from me
When girls initiated the match, they liked my profile info/questions 12% of the time,
rather than liking a picture, as opposed to me liking their info/questions 5% of the time
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
(not seen in charts)
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I got a free couch, arm chair, and ottoman from a girl who ghosted me after the first
date
Key Takeaways:
I saw a very high increase in matches after I bought Hinge Premium
Girls look through their "pool" and initiate matches MUCH less than guys
Using humor (not pickup lines) or commenting about something on their profile were
the most successful first messages
Girls were generally most active between 9pm and 12am, least active between 3am
and 6am
Girls were generally most active on the weekends, surprisingly least active on
Thursday/Friday were surprisingly
Monday, Wednesday, and Sunday around 9pm saw the highest spikes in matches
Thursday seems to have been the most consistently active day for matches
Girls typically seem to ghost slightly more often, but hard to tell since I'm the only guy
that's tested
Dating is expensive. I pretty much paid for everything besides a couple occasions. It's
2018, don't be afraid to split the bill especially for first dates
This was honestly pretty fun to compile. If you have any additional trends you'd like to see,
please let me know and I'll try and dig through my data for you! Thanks for taking the time
to click on my post. Hope you enjoyed!
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Total cost to find 1 relationship off Hinge = 1,294 (total spent on dates) + 40 (Hinge
Premium) = $1,334
I'm suddenly really happy my girlfriend's favorite food is mac & cheese
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I got a free couch, arm chair, and ottoman from a girl who ghosted me after the first
date
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17/1/2019 My 5 months on Hinge (match results, statistics, and trends) [OC] : dataisbeautiful
ghosted me, but I asked her a week later if her offer was still available and she said
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yes. I then picked up the couch and then she ghosted me again ¯\(ツ)/¯
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I call worth
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Lmmao
Yes extra m
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It’s low cost for both people, walking tends to make conversations flow easier, it’s easy to
end the date if things don’t get well (no waiting for bills and such).
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lmfao @ 9.69nice
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It's 2018, don't be afraid to split the bill especially for first dates
ehhh, I'd rather pay for the first date if I feel even a bit attracted, then once its obvious
we both like eachother I'd expect her to split more going forward.
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...
Where are you taking your dates? I'm all for splitting... but I wouldn't blame someone for
letting you pay if you chose such an expensive place. If you want people to split with you,
you've gotta choose somewhere they can afford too. IMO a reasonable first date
restaurant is in the $8-$25 dollar range, with an average maybe around $19 dollars each
after tip.
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$8 first date
nigga what
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$75 for two isn't even really considered nice. A Brazilian steakhouse I went to
for my birthday, which I would call nice, was I think around $300 for two.
But my current SO and I went to coffee for our first date too. You don't have to
drop $ for a date to be good.
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wtf?!?
My first date with my gf was nachos at the student union lol. Cost a tenner haha
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But I guess if you're old enough to be held up by the bouncers, you probs don't
want to hang about in a student union anyway but I dunno
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rwclol 5 points · 6 months ago
Grats on the couch, chair and ottoman lol how did that end up becoming an opportunity
after getting ghosted??
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succed32 36 points · 6 months ago
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This is pretty cool. Thank you. Ive been researching online dating to see how realistic it is to
find a partner not just a date. But very few places have this kind of data.
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I've had dates with three girls in about five months of being off and on with it and only
one went past the first date and turned into something casual.
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Dating is tough man. I don't buy into the whole "Your one true soulmate is out
there" stuff, I believe there are plenty of people out there for every single one of us
that could be that special someone.
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That being the case, it's coffee/ice cream and maybe more if we have chemistry. I couldn't
imagine dropping ~$50 on someone and never talking to them again. Dating is expensive
though...like most things nowadays.
Note to OP: Great job compiling all the data and posting it in an easy-to-read format. Hope
the relationship works out! :)
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Edit: Forgot you lived in Chicago - lots of public transport then? I used to live in Ann
Arbor where that was viable, but now I feel like going to a bar for a date is impractical.
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Feelsbadman I have a similar lack of success. If I am honest I am about 5 out of 10
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looking but I am a stable guy with interesting conversation so in person I could manage
a 6 out of 10. The harsh truth is I am not attracted to the women who are prepared to
date a 5 or 6 out of 10 guy and I get few matches in dating apps. It must be good for
some people (and good for them) but for me all these apps essentially mean there is no
point attempting to date anymore. Took me a long time to realise this but when I did it
was quite a relief in a funny way.
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And from the 5 dates 3 turned into something more serios. And 1 into a relationship.
That's pretty ridiculous. People are treated like numbers and objects that shit didn't existed
way back in the days
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asian_jim_halpert 13 points
Search· 6r/dataisbeautiful
months ago
Holy fuck. How long did it take you to get all that data? Did you literally go through every
match, record the time and date, what the first message said, and what the result was?
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I do not miss it
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GreatExpectations65 7 points · 6 months ago
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Well. My boyfriend and I broke up recently and I was considering online dating for when I
feel okay enough to date, but this makes it feel like more work than it’s worth :\
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Initiated by her (lighter blue line)
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Response from me (lightest blue line)
No response from me (lightest blue line)
No messages sent (lightest blue line)
Sorry if it's hard to read, the alignment with sankey chart is a bit wonky.
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