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Why bio-refining?
– National and local policies promote bio-refining
– Strict environmental regulations
Increased cost of products made from fossil fuels
– Extraction, processing, disposal
– Advantages
Rural economic development, lower economic costs,
environmentally safe
http://www.pnl.gov/biobased/docs/prodplas.pdf
Scope of Project
http://www.pnl.gov/biobased/docs/prodplas.pdf
Market Analysis / Demand
www.the-innovation-group.com/ChemProfiles.htm
Market Demands for Products
Years 2005-2025
8000
7000
6000
Acetic Acid
5000
Mass (10 lbm)
Citric Acid
Fumaric Acid
6
2000
1000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Assumptions:
-growth due to environmental profile
-industrial applications increase due to biodegradable advantages
Price Projections for Products
3
Years 2005-2025
2.5
m)
Price per Unit Mass (US$/lb
2
Acetic Acid
Citric Acid
Fumaric Acid
1.5 Succinic Acid
Lactic Acid
Ethanol
Propionic Acid
1
0.5
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Assumptions:
-an increase in demand will result in over capacity and competition among suppliers
-as a result, a reduction of prices with a corresponding increase in the amount of sales is expected
-more competition will drive prices down and supply up
Process Description
Simulations for Fermentation/Purification
– Model Descriptions
Fermentation
– Formation of each acid
– Bacteria Considerations
Conversions
Simulations
– Outline of Fermentation
– Outline of Purification Processes
Models
Citric Acid
Succinic Acid
Propionic Acid
Fumaric Acid
Acetic Acid
Fermentation
Acid Similar processes
Glucose + Water
Fumaric
Propionic
Acetic Acid
Acid Acid Formation
Citric
Succinic Acid
Bacteria – 10:1 mass ratio of water to
Clostridium
Anaerobiospirillum
Propionibacterium
thermocellum glucose
Aspergillus
Rhizopus niger Our Scope
succiniciproducens
acidipropionici – Heat sterilization
– Compressed Air
– Ammonia
Bacteria Name Yield Product
– Batch Reaction
Clostridium thermocellum 100% Acetic Acid
Succinic Acid
Fumaric Acid
Acetic Acid
Citric Acid
Capacity: 30,000L Water: 100,000 kg/batch
Water: 10,000 kg/batch
Units: 1
Citric Acid: 56975.4 kg/batch
Cost: $35,000
Water: 75236.6 kg/batch Capacity: 47 m2
Calcium Citrate:
Units: 2
80363.9 kg/batch
Sulfuric Acid:Cost:
48.06 % $91,200
75000 kg/batch Air: 237.1 kg/batch
Sulfuric Acid: 32061.7 kg/batch
Water: 155303 kg/batch
Ca Citrate: 4018.2 kg/batch
Citric Acid:
54268.7 kg/batch
Ca(OH)2: 35000 kg/batch 23.2 %mass
Ca(OH)2 waste: 20.36%
Product Precipitation Gypsum:
Capacity: 27,500 L 65 m3
Capacity: Water: 79.64% 40146.5 kg/batch
Units: 3 Capacity: Citric
35,000LAcid Product: 45.4 mass%
Total 18125.5 kg/batch
Units: 254268.7 kg/batch
Units:
Cost: $323,000 7 Gypsum Formation
Cost: $115,250
Cost: $364,200
Acetic Acid
Acetic Acid: 64.7 lbmol/hr Water: 333 lbmol/hr
Water: 333 lbmol/hr EtAc: 777.9 lbmol/hr
EtAc: 777.9 lbmol/hr
Acetic Acid: 1780 kg/hr
Water: 1591 kg/hr
160
y = 1.6241x + 4.3017
140
R2 = 0.9955
120
100
F C I (M M
80
60
40
20
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Capacity (MM lb)
Annual Operating Cost
Citric Acid
Capacity 35 MM lb
Raw materials 12.68
Operating labor 1.34
Utilities 3.01
Maintenance and repairs 4.43
Operating supplies 1.01
Total ($ MM) 22.50
Operating cost breakdown
Raw materials
Maintenance Supplies
5.5 %
Operating labor 19.7 %
56 %
5.9 %
13.4 %
Utilities
Citric Acid
Operating cost vs Production
30
y = 0.31x + 0.652
25
Operating cost (M M $
20
15
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Capacity (MM lb/yr)
Model Considerations
Acetic Succinic Citric
Acid Acid Acid Propionic Acid
Fermentation
4.83 4.24 3.79 2.97
Broth Mass (%)
Final Conversion
63.3 59.9 66.0 48.1
to Sell(%)
Mathematical Model?
Venture Design Options
– Irreducible Structure
– Reducible Superstructure
Raw
Plant
Material
Locations
Raw Markets Begin
Plant 7 3 Product
Material Operations
Locations Products Markets
Markets
Begin
Operations
7 3 Product
Products Markets
Mathematical Model?
30 Raw 45 Plant 3 Product 7
Material Locations Markets Products
Markets
28,350
Combinations
Stochastic
3
–Maximizes the Net Present Value
1
0.8
2
–Scenario Generation
Probability
0.6
–Risk Assessment
1.5
0.4
1
0.5 0.2
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 250000000 270000000 290000000 310000000 330000000 350000000 370000000
Ethyl lactate
– Research analysis on one
product (ethyl lactate)
Mathematical Model
Mathematical Model: Locations
Pheonix,
Pheonix, Yuma, Bakersfield, Fresno, Napa, Greeley, Pueblo, Louisville, Cedar-
Cedar-Rapids, Dubuque
Mountain-
Mountain-Home, Danville, Peoria, Quincy, Evansville, Fort-
Fort-Wayne, Meade, Bastrop, Denton, Billings
Lexington, Clovis, Las-
Las-Cruces, Roswell, Cincinatti,
Cincinatti, Dayton, Heppner, Dumas, El-
El-Paso, Yakima
Potential Plant Locations
Economic growth of cities
was used to determine
potential plant locations
Plant locations
considerations
– Population
– Number of existing
companies in area
– Expected rate of area
http://www. www.publicforuminstitute.org/nde/reports/lma.pdf growth
Potential Plant Locations
46 Potential plant
locations
Location choices
Based on:
– Agricultural supply
– Economic growth
of location
aA + bB Æ cC + dD
Relationship between the main chemical and other products in the reaction
The relationship is based on mass balance rather than mole balance
All the main chemical will have mu value of 1
Mathematical Model: Process
Mathematical Model: NPW
CF = Cash Flow
tp = time period, 1 time period is 2 years
total of 11 time periods from 2005-
2027
i = nominal interest rate, 5%
Vs = salvage value, 10% of FCI
Iw = working capital, 15% of FCI
Project Lifetime – 22 years
Ethyl Lactate Overview
Extension of Previous Study
2 Processes: Ethanol & Lactic Acid
– Esterification-Pervaporation
Ethyl Lactate
Create Real World Fit Model
– Biomass/Waste Water
– CO2 Production/Disposal
– Mathematical Model Considerations
– Provide insight to large process model
Biomass/Waste Water
Biomass Waste Possibilities
– Return to fermentation unit for reuse
– Sale biomass product to markets
Waste Water
– Capital cost for water purification exceed storage cost
– Municipal water storage $100,000/yr
Mathematical Model Input
– Biomass sales and waste water costs
Net Increase in NPV by 0.1%
CO2 Analysis
Sale and Shipping of CO2
– 500 ton/yr CO2 - $75/ton
Minimal profit
– CO2 Recovery unit
$20 million capital cost
Cost at markets
Transportation Cost
– Cost to ship raw materials and
products
Linearly variable with
distance
– Distance to raw material and
product markets determined
– Amount shipped
Market Demand/Capacity
Demand
– Determined for each product market
– 1 year later
More competition
– Assumed 80% of Demand Supplied to Market
– Actual demand determined by model
Capacity Constraints/Expansion
– No expansion first two years
– Cannot expand 2 years consecutively
Depreciation/Investing
Depreciation
– Continuous straight line depreciation
– Equipment depreciable for 10 year period
Capital Investments
– 1 initial capital investment
– Revenue used to re-invest in capital investments for
future expansions
Estimated Sale Price
1.1
1
Selling Price ($/lb)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0 5 10 15 20
Time (yr, 1 = 2005)
Results
Single Raw Material:
– Corn
Build three plants immediately:
– Youngstown, OH
– Toledo, OH
– Anniston, AL
Build one plant in year #5:
– Dayton, OH
NPW = $38.8 million
Investment = $40.2 million
ROI = 4.8%
Locations
Total Product Flow Rate
45
40 Toledo
35
Dayton
million lb/year
30
25 Youngstown
20
Anniston
15
10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
year (1 = 2005)
Capacity vs. Flow - Anniston
20
Total Capacity
18
16
Product Flow
14
Million lb/year
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Year (1 = 2005)
Plant Operating Costs
12
Toledo
10
Dayton
Million $/year
8
Youngstown
6
Anniston
4
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Year (1 = 2005)
Uncertainty Results
Single Raw Material:
– Corn
Build three plants immediately:
– Toledo, OH
– Dayton, OH
– Anniston, AL
30
25
20 Anniston
15
10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20
Year (1 = 2005)
Risk Analysis – Ethyl Lactate
1
0.9
Cumulative Probability
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 20000000 40000000 60000000 80000000
NPV ($)
Frequency
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
10000000
14000000
18000000
22000000
26000000
30000000
34000000
38000000
NPV ($)
42000000
46000000
50000000
54000000
58000000
62000000
More
.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Risk Histogram – Ethyl Lactate
Ethyl Lactate Conclusion
With uncertainty
– 3 plants
– NPV = $34.4 million
– ICI = $44.0 million
7 Potential Products
Venture Will Include Production of 4
Plant Production Specifications
Succinic Acid
– Annual Production: 63 million pounds
– Fixed Capital Investment: $120,000,000
– Annual Operating Cost: $40,000,000
Plant Production Specifications
Ethanol
– Annual Production: 81 million pounds
– Fixed Capital Investment: $130,000,000
– Annual Operating Cost: $42,000,000
Plant Production Specifications
Propionic Acid
– Annual Production: 13 million pounds
– Fixed Capital Investment: $9,600,000
– Annual Operating Cost: $3,000,000
Plant Production Specifications
Fumaric Acid
– Annual Production: 3 million pounds
– Fixed Capital Investment: $2,200,000
– Annual Operating Cost: $600,000
Plant Production
300.00
250.00
Succinic Acid
Prodcut Flow Rate (MM lbm)
200.00 Ethanol
Propionic Acid
Fumaric Acid
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Market Distribution
Succinic Acid,
Ethanol, $117,960,000, 46%
$125,780,000, 49%
Revenue From Product Sales
$1,200,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$800,000,000
$600,000,000
$400,000,000
$200,000,000
$0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Uncertainty Analysis
1
0.8
Probability
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
250000000 270000000 290000000 310000000 330000000 350000000 370000000
NPV ($)
Risk Histogram-Biorefining
Histogram
35 100.00%
90.00%
30 Expected NPV = $321 MM
80.00%
25
Frequency
70.00%
20 60.00%
50.00%
15 40.00%
10 30.00%
20.00%
5
10.00%
0 .00%
250000000 280000000 320000000 360000000 More
NPV ($)
Conclusion
Expected
Agricultural
Plant
Plant NPW of
Product
Location:
Production
$321 million
$321
Cornmillion
– Specification
– – Dubuque,
Initial
IA $150
Capital:
– Succinic Acid
million
– Ethanol
– Propionic Acid
– Fumaric Acid
Further Questions…