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Alexandria Engineering Journal (2019) xxx, xxx–xxx

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Alexandria Engineering Journal


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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular


Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia
Mady Mohamed a,b,*, Anna Klingmann a, Haitham Samir a

a
Architecture Department, Effat University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
b
Zagazig University, Egypt

Received 12 November 2018; revised 14 December 2018; accepted 13 March 2019

SUBJECT CLASSIFICA- Abstract The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the superior thermal performance of traditional
TION CODES mud architecture over contemporary concrete block construction. The case study consists of two
Building studies; adjacent buildings representing the two building techniques that are located in the Asiri highlands,
Culture; KSA. The research employed multi-field study techniques that include observation, as well as objec-
Architecture tive and subjective assessments. The objective assessment measured the different factors affecting
the thermal comfort inside the case study houses by using a data logger and handheld equipment.
The subjective assessment aimed to measure the response of the occupants by using semi-structured
interviews and self-directed questioners. The results will be a further stepping-stone in motivating
people to find value in their heritage and to preserve, reuse and reinhabit their houses while also
stressing the importance to pass traditional knowledge to younger generations. The results showed
a better performance for the vernacular houses while showed significant importance of adopting the
passive strategies even with the new concrete houses.
Ó 2019 Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an
open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction and research context The vernacular mountain villages of Asir are examples of
self-sufficient sustainable communities that were able to adopt
The region of Asir is located in the remote and rugged geo- a variety of passive strategies to optimize their buildings’ per-
graphical region of south-west Saudi Arabia It has an area formance to a variety of microclimates while depending on
of 76,693 square kilometres and an estimated population of local resources for building their homes and villages. Asir com-
1,913,392. It shares a short border with Yemen. The geograph- prise four distinct geographical areas. Towards the coast of the
ical coordinates for Abha (The capital City of the Region) are Red Sea lies the flat landscape of the Tihama, a hot and humid
19.0969° N, 42.8638° E while the region lies between 1 7.5 and region. This coastal plain leads to the rugged highlands called
20.5° N and 41 and 44° E [17] (see Fig. 1). the Sarat, which rises to an altitude of over 3000 m. As the
mountains retain the rainy clouds brought by the winter winds
coming from the northwest and catch the tail of the southwest
* Corresponding author.
monsoon in the summer, precipitation is consistent and high.
The frequency of rain and the low incidence of evaporation
E-mail address: momohamed@effatuniversity.edu.sa (M. Mohamed).
make the Sarat a rich agricultural resource [2]. Farmers used
Peer review under responsibility of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria
University.
to cultivate the lands, which are terraced to conform to the

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
1110-0168 Ó 2019 Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Please cite this article in press as: M. Mohamed et al., Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia, Alexandria Eng. J.
(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
2 M. Mohamed et al.

Fig. 1 Asir region in KSA, after [17].

often-steep terrain. Between both extremes lies the hilly part of Although some houses had tanks to collect rainwater from
the Tihama, which was traditionally settled by goat herders the roof, the main supply of water was carried from a nearby
and isolated farmsteads. Towards the east side, on the other well. Windows were small in size and square in shape to allow
side of the mountains, emerges the Arabian tableland, which for ample privacy and enhance protection. Arranged in a lin-
contrasts the fertile area of the highlands with large stretches ear fashion, the openings, protected by sturdy wooden shut-
of desert, which were historically inhabited by Bedouin ters, located in the inner portion of the exterior wall,
nomads [9]. Each geographical zone developed its own build- provided enough sunlight and cross ventilation for cooling in
ing style in response to climatic factors, natural features, tribal the summer but were also able to prevent the entry of cold
traditions and locally sourced materials [4]. These customary winds and rain during the winter. The exposure to the solar
practices based on local craftsmanship and regionally devel- radiation maximizes the required thermal mass to optimize
oped methods were handed down from generation to genera- the warming effect of solar radiation. In the study area, which
tion [4]. Building materials included mud processed from has a fair amount of rainfall, most mud houses are also
clay, rubble stone and tamarisk or palm tree branches, all of equipped with a resilient foundation wall, made of rubble
which were adapted in different ways to suit micro-climatic stone, which overlaps with the external mud wall to protect
conditions, varying with rainfall, heat, cold and humidity it from water seepage.
levels. In the highlands, northwest of Abha, stone was the pre- It is evident that a growing movement, particularly among
ferred method of construction as these areas receive the highest NGOs, academics and researchers investigating how vernacu-
amount of rainfall, while in the Arabian tableland with little or lar techniques and materials may play a decisive role in the cre-
no rainfall stretching south and east of Abha, mud houses are ation of more sustainable and energy efficient buildings while
favored. In the transition zone between the Arabian Tableland seeking to liberate the vernacular from its prevailing associa-
and the highlands, which receives moderate rainfall up to tions with outdated traditions and a pre-industrial past. There-
thirty-five centimetres, the settlements are built with madmak, fore, despite the existing neglect and disregard of many
a series of continuous layers of mud. In this technique, a vernacular settlements in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the
course of mud is molded directly onto the walls and each layer world, there is a growing awareness that sustainability is inex-
is left to dry for one day before another one is added on top. tricably linked to vernacular construction methods and mate-
Throughout history, people have tried to adapt their build- rials. More importantly, that the expertise of vernacular
ings to the harsh climate by reducing heat impacts [13]. Since builders might be relevant not only in the conservation and
the traditional building process was limited to the capacity retrieval of vernacular settlements already in existence but also
of local materials, certain building standards developed, which in the construction of sustainable and resilient buildings for the
encouraged a consistent appearance over consecutive time future. Thus, in the current discourse on sustainability, vernac-
periods. Room sizes, for example, were based on the tensile ular architecture does not only play a vital role as a cultural
strength of roof joists made from local wood and therefore and scientific document to be conserved for future generations
measured rarely more than four meters by six meters [3]. but also presents a valuable resource and learning method to

Please cite this article in press as: M. Mohamed et al., Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia, Alexandria Eng. J.
(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
Examining the thermal performance of vernacular houses 3

rethink the creation of a more resilient type of architecture. advanced star architecture, vernacular architecture is fre-
Consequently, global challenges such as population growth, quently perceived as an obstacle to progress and material
global warming, housing needs, and questions of social and wealth and, in most parts of the world, relegated to the pro-
economic equality can be addressed [8]. duction of heritage destinations, created for the purpose of
Over the last thirty years, the revival of vernacular building eco-tourism. According to Asquith and Vellinga, ‘‘there seems
techniques and materials such as rammed earth and mud has to be limited interest among planners, architects, and politi-
steadily progressed through scientific research and publica- cians in the achievements, experience and skills of the world’s
tions as well as through the development of academic and vernacular builders or the environmentally and culturally
non-academic training programs [6]. In addition, there has appropriate qualities of the buildings they produce” [19].
been steady growth in projects highlighting themes of ‘‘build-
ing simply”- in an effort to resolve the housing crisis for the 3. Research aim and objectives
poor, which promote mud construction as a resourceful,
low-impact, and self-empowering construction method of The research aims at comparing and quantifying the effective-
low-cost housing [18,5]. Moreover, it has been proven that ness of both – mud construction and concrete construction in
earthen construction materials such as mud brick, rammed order to compare their thermal performance. This analysis was
earth, and compressed earth block, are optimally suited for achieved through the following objectives:
sustainable building since they not only eliminate the costly
need for the transportation of imported materials, but also sig- (1) Objective assessment for the environmental performance
nificantly reduce the use of non-renewable, rare and energy of the case study buildings.
intensive products such as lumber, concrete blocks and (2) Subjective assessment with the occupants of the case
cement. As a raw material, mud is inherently regional, com- study buildings.
pletely recyclable and reparable. In addition, loam also pos-
sesses superior thermal storage and transmissive properties
that, when combined with passive solar design, can dramati-
4. Research methodology and framework
cally help to lower energy consumption in addition to reducing
pollution [15].
Over the last thirty years, the revival of vernacular building The methodology of this research depends, on a field study
techniques and materials such as rammed earth and mud has approach that is divided into three main techniques. These
steadily progressed through scientific research and publica- techniques include (i) obtaining and analysing the hourly cli-
tions as well as through the development of academic and matic data file for the location, (ii) objective assessment and
non-academic training programs [6]. In addition, there has (iii) subjective assessment [10,11,12,14]. Fig. 2 illustrate the
been steady growth in projects highlighting themes of ‘‘build- employed detailed methodology of the research.
ing simply”- in an effort to resolve the housing crisis for the
poor, which promote mud construction as a resourceful, (i) In order to analyse the climatic context, a suitable set of
low-impact, and self-empowering construction method of climatic data of the location under investigation is
low-cost housing [18,5]. Moreover, it has been proven that needed. The proposed methodology employs a method
earthen construction materials such as mud brick, rammed of designing hourly climatic data, which can be used
earth, and compressed earth block, are optimally suited for instead of actual data when necessary. The data depends
sustainable building since they not only eliminate the costly on utilizing synthesised climatic data generated by
need for the transportation of imported materials, but also sig- Meteonorm software, which interpolates the climatic
nificantly reduce the use of non-renewable, rare and energy data for a certain location by using the information from
intensive products such as lumber, concrete blocks and the meteorological stations located closest to this loca-
cement. As a raw material, mud is inherently regional, com- tion. The interpolated data is then rescaled by using
pletely recyclable and reparable. In addition, loam also pos- the ‘Synthesis Data’ feature of Weather Tool software.2
sesses superior thermal storage and transmissive properties On obtaining the hourly climatic data, Weather Tool
that, when combined with passive solar design, can dramati- software is used to visualise and analyse the data to pro-
cally help to lower energy consumption in addition to reducing pose potential passive design strategies and measures.
pollution [15]. (ii) An objective assessment was also conducted for the sake
of comparison analysis. Data logger’s equipment and
2. Research problem handheld instruments were used to measure the thermal
performance of comparable spaces in a traditional mud
house and a concrete house under the same macro-
Currently, most of the houses in Asir lie abandoned, falling climatic and micro-climatic conditions. The case study
into sever decay as their owners moved to modern concrete comprises a concrete house and a mudbrick house
block villas for more space and comfort and are not willing standing side by side. It is located at Al-Wadeen in the
to dedicate their resources to the upkeep or renovation of their Asiri region to the south east of Abha, the capital city
mud houses. This is a document to the fact that vernacular of Asir, (18.09736° N, 42.81503° E).
architecture in many places of the world still continues to be (iii) Finally, a subjective assessment was conducted with res-
associated with the past and the primitive, underdevelopment idents through a semi-structured interview and self-
and poverty, driven by a perceived hegemony of Western stan- directed questionnaires. Both closed-ended and
dards and technology [16]. In the current context of advanced
information technologies, deregulated markets and digitally 2
www.squ1.com/software/ weather-tool/features.html.

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4 M. Mohamed et al.

Fig. 2 Detailed methodology of the research.

opened-ended questions were utilized to explore the res-


idents’ opinions. As a second step, both objective and
subjective assessments were compared and analyzed in
order to validate the results. The thermal sensation
seven-point ASHRAE (American Society of Heating,
Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers) scale Fig. 3 The thermal sensation seven-point scale, after [1].
was employed in this investigation to measure the ther-
mal comfort of the residents [1] Fig. 3.

The observation was conducted by eye and a professional


camera with wide angle and tripod, while the objective assess-
ment was conducted by using observation and field monitoring
techniques. Figs. 4 and 5 show external perspectives for the case
studies in addition to the monitored spaces inside the concrete
and the mud-houses. The occupants of the four houses were
asked to close their air-conditioning systems and to leave the
windows partially open during the monitoring days. The ther-
mal neutrality model was applied on analyzing the hourly cli-
matic data to determine the thermal comfort range during the
time of the field investigation. The concrete houses are elevated
one meter above the ground floor level while the mud houses are
located below street level. Therefore, to assure the validity of the
comparison, certain spaces from the ground floor of the concrete
houses were compared with similar spaces located on the first
floor of the mud houses, which demonstrated the same level
and the same orientation. Fig. 6 shows the ground floor plan Fig. 4 External perspectives for the two case studies, captured
for the two concrete houses and the first floor plan of the two by the research team.
mud houses with the monitored space highlighted in each one.

4.1. The measurements inside the houses include3: Temperature Sensor C/W 50 ft Cable (Fig. 7). The data
loggers were fixed at 1.50 m above the fnishing floor
(1) Monitoring the air temperature of two representative level of the selected spaces. The data logger was pro-
spaces for three days inside the two houses in each case grammed to collect data at 15-minutes intervals.
study using Hobo Data Loggers H124 and TMC6-HD (2) The data was analyzed by using statistical analysis soft-
ware SPSS to quantify the difference in thermal perfor-
3
Note: All the employed data logger and handheld equipment in the mance between the two houses (concrete/mud) through
objective assessment are a property of the first author. Mann-Whitney U test5 (Hague and Harris 1993). In
4
Hobo Data Logger H12, a device to log the air temperature and
5
relative humidity at certain intervals for a period of time, shown in Mann-Whitney U test is similar to a t-test but does not require the
Fig. 8. assumption of normal distribution for the values of the two samples.

Please cite this article in press as: M. Mohamed et al., Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia, Alexandria Eng. J.
(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
Examining the thermal performance of vernacular houses 5

Fig. 5 The monitored spaces inside the concrete houses and the mud house, captured by the research team.

Fig. 6 The ground and the first floor plans of the concrete and the mud houses.

Fig. 7 The employed data loggers and handheld equipment in the study.

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(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
6 M. Mohamed et al.

addition, the WeatherTool software was utilized to iden- in October. Based on the average daily incident radiation on
tify the range of thermal comfort of the highlands of the a vertical surface using Weather Tool, the optimum
Asiri region at the study time (27–29 April 2017). orientation in Abha is the south-east (122.5°) (Fig. 8). The pre-
vailing wind is mostly blowing from the northeast direction
(Fig. 9).
5. Results and discussion The expected effectiveness of applying different passive
strategies on the thermal performance of the buildings is
5.1. Architectural description of the Asiri houses shown in the below Fig. 10. It is clear that the thermal mass
effect, natural ventilation, and indirect evaporative cooling
have the best effect on enhancing the thermal performance
The Asiri houses are designed to provide shelter for man and
of the buildings in the highland of Asir region. The thermal
tamed animals such as sheep and goats. The building normally
comfort range is identified by using the Weather Tool, by
consists of one ground and two upper floors. Spaces in the
the Thermal Neutrality Model for free running buildings
ground floor were dedicated to animals, poultry and stores
(Fig. 11). The diagram demonstrates that the range of thermal
for grains and seasonal crops. The first floor includes the main
comfort for the case studies’ location in April is between 23 °C
sitting room while sleeping rooms and kitchen used to be on
and 27 °C.
the top floor. An open terrace was typically added to the upper
floor for washing purposes. This terrace occupies one corner of
5.3. The subjective assessment
the building. The staircase occupies the middle of the houses,
built of mud and supported by wooden beams. Mud is the
dominant material of the Asir houses with local stone. Stone The questionnaire targeted a sample of 18 participants. All the
used in walls are essential to support the mud durability [7]. participants that were involved in the questionnaires have lived
Local timber is used as a roofing material only as structure?. in Asir for more than 10 years. Only two participants have
The buildings are built on stone strip footings or natural rock moved out to the major metropolitan cities of Riyadh and
followed by subsequent courses of mud. The mud walls, which Dammam. Respondents were selected randomly from house-
can range from 50 to 90 cm in depth, provide a high thermal holds. The survey was administrated by two groups of students
inertia, absorbing the hot summer air during the day and on a face-to-face basis over a course of 3 days. Each group
release it during the cool nights. In the winter, this thermal contained three students supervised by one of the investigators
barrier also helps to insulate against the cold. The exterior [7]. In the first part of this research project, the results of the
walls lean inwards allowing for less thickness in the upper participants were analyzed except one question regarding the
floors. The openings are relatively small because of the wall thermal comfort inside the buildings. The results revealed a
bearing construction system. However, this size of openings significant difference between the thermal satisfaction inside
helps to control the pentation of the solar radiation and the the concrete and the mud houses. Almost 90% of the partici-
prevailing wind. The disadvantage of this building technique pants confirmed that they enjoy the thermal performance of
is that it requires a high level of maintenance, as this material the mud houses more than the concrete houses. They added
is brittle and easily susceptible to water damage. Furthermore, that they prefer to spend their time in the mud houses espe-
the heat during the summer months causes fissures in the exte- cially during the extreme weather times. Fig. 12 shows the ther-
rior walls, which need to be periodically repaired. To mitigate mal comfort of occupants inside the mud and the concrete
these disadvantages, each layer of mud is separated by hori- houses based on the ASHRAE Seven Point Scale. It is clear
zontal bands of ragaf (projecting stone slates), which cascade from the figure that the thermal comfort inside the mud house
the rain away from the vulnerable clay and help to prevent ero- is slightly better than in the concrete houses. At the time of
sion. The orientation of the slates also help to block direct measurement, the climate was characterized by a moderate cli-
solar rays in the summer but help to maximize their absorption mate where the average temperature degrees ranged from
in the winter, thus keeping the inside temperature of the build- 10 °C to 26 °C. The authors’ hypothesis is that the slight differ-
ing at comfortable levels in both seasons [2]. ences are more significant in favor of the mud houses during
the extreme hot and cold weather periods.
5.2. Location and macro-climatic analysis
5.4. The objective assessment
An hourly climatic data file for Abha, the capital city of Asir,
and the nearest city to the location of the case study has been The air temperature degrees of the two case studies were mon-
generated by using Meotonorm and Weather Tool. The file has itored for two complete days at 15-minute intervals. The tem-
been analyzed and visualized to identify the proposed passive perature ranged from 20 °C to 26.5 °C at the two case study
strategies that should be followed in order to correspond with sites. The average temperature for the concrete house was
the existing climatic conditions and enhance the thermal per- 20.76 °C while it was 22.67 °C for the mud house. By compar-
formance of the case studies. The annual mean temperature ing the air temperature degrees of the two houses with the aid
range is moderately cool, but during winter, it can get much of a Mann-Whitney U test on the air temperature data, the
cooler. On analyzing the hourly climatic data of Abha, the results revealed a significant difference (P < 0.05)6 between
data showed that the average monthly outdoor air temperature 6
ranges from 15 °C in January to 26 °C in August, while the In the majority of analyses, an alpha of 0.05 is used as the cut-off
for significance. If the p-value is less than 0.05, this confirms the
maximum monthly temperature ranges from 25.3 °C in
hypothesis that there is a significant difference between the means. If
December to 34.6 in October. The average daily direct solar the p-value is larger than 0.05, this proves the Null-Hypothesis of no
radiation ranges from 8882 wh/m2 in January to 10,446 wh/m2 significant difference exists Hague and Harris, Sampling and Statistics.

Please cite this article in press as: M. Mohamed et al., Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia, Alexandria Eng. J.
(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
Examining the thermal performance of vernacular houses 7

Fig. 8 Optimum orientation in Asir location, using Weather Tool.

Fig. 9 Prevailing winds for Asir city, using Weather Tool.

Please cite this article in press as: M. Mohamed et al., Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia, Alexandria Eng. J.
(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
8 M. Mohamed et al.

Fig. 10 Recommended passive strategies for Asir city, using Weather Tool.

Fig. 11 The monthly diurnal average temperatures and the thermal comfort range, using Weather Tool.

the two houses, despite the two sets of data trends being con- 6. Conclusion and recommendation
sistent. Table 1 presents the statistical analysis output from the
SPSS software. The current paper aimed to demonstrate the superior thermal
When comparing the results with the range of the thermal performance of traditional mud architecture over contempo-
comfort of the case study’s region in April (22–27 °C), it rary concrete block construction. Both subjective and objective
revealed that the thermal performance of the mud house is bet- assessment for two case studies of attached concrete and mud
ter than that of the concrete house since it brings about 90% of houses in Asir region of Saudi Arabia were carried out in this
the air temperature degrees inside the comfort zone (Fig. 13). research. Air temperatures were monitored and measured dur-
The results of the objective assessment validates the previ- ing the same times and intervals. The measurements demon-
ous results from the subjective assessment. strated that the thermal performance of the mud houses was

Please cite this article in press as: M. Mohamed et al., Examining the Thermal Performance of Vernacular Houses in Asir Region of Saudi Arabia, Alexandria Eng. J.
(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
Examining the thermal performance of vernacular houses 9

Fig. 12 % of the occupant’s thermal comfort inside the mud/concrete houses based on ASHRAE Seven Point Scale.

ments. It minimizes environmental impacts, and thus mini-


Table 1 Statistics comparison between the hourly air temper-
mizes the import of goods and energy as well as the
ature degrees of the two houses.
generation of waste. Aside from the environmental response
Comparison item The The mud to the local climate and geography, vernacular architecture
concrete house also enhances a feeling of identity and community [8]. Conse-
house quently, the vernacular settlements of Asir should not only be
Mean temp. 20.76 22.67 seen as a symbolic reminder of a bygone era but rather be
T- Test P = 0.000 regarded as a valuable stepping stones to a more sustainable
The difference between the two sets of S future whereby traditional passive building techniques and
air temperature at the two courtyards materials can be augmented with active sustainable technolo-
(S = Significant)
gies and contemporary scientific means.
Current construction activities should recognize the natural
energy systems and aspire to a symbiotic relationship with
superior to that of the concrete houses where air temperature their surroundings by learning from and improving on the ver-
degrees inside the mud houses were almost completely inside nacular building principles that provided sustainable solutions
the thermal comfort zone of the Asiri highlands. to energy needs for many generations. These principles can be
Sustainable design balances human needs with the carrying used as guidance to resolve complex design requirements in
capacity of regional climatic conditions and cultural environ- new construction. By recognizing the micro climatic factors

Fig. 13 The air temperature comparison between the concrete and the mud houses, by the first author after by using Hobo Ware.

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(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004
10 M. Mohamed et al.

of a site in which a building is located, much of a building’s [8] B.A. Kazimee, Learning from vernacular architecture:
natural energy patterns can be enhanced. sustainability and cultural conformity, in: Paper Presented at
the Eco-Architecture, 2008.
[9] T. Mauger, Colors of Arabia: the Painters’ Garden, Asir, T.A.a.
Acknowledgements
M.o. (Ed.) vol. 23, France, 2002.
[10] M. Mohamed, An approach to integrate the environmental impact
This paper has been developed from the outcomes of a assessment process in the early stages of design, The First
research project entitled: Developing intergenerational knowl- International Engineering Conference Hosting Major International
edge transfer of vernacular building techniques in the southwest Events Innovation, Creativity and Impact Assessment, Housing
of Saudi Arabia. The research project was granted by Effat &Building National Research Center HBRC, Cairo, Egypt, 2013.
University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and carried out by the [11] M. Mohamed, Investigating the Environmental Performance of
authors and a team of students at the school of Architecture Government Primary Schools in Egypt: with Particular Concern
and Design. Thus, the authors would like to thank Effat to Thermal Comfort PhD thesis, Dundee University, 2009.
University for supporting and all the students for their contri- [12] M. Mohamed, T. Gado, Assessment of thermal comfort inside
primary governmental classrooms in hot dry climates Part I: a case
bution to the project.
study from Egypt, in: M. Horner, A. Price, J. Bebbington, R.
Emmanuel (Eds.), SUE-MoT 2009 Second International
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(2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.03.004

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