“The Winning Weather Index”

Wind.X Team
Laura Silver: Meteorology Expert

Hannah Evans: Business and Industry Expert

Matt Yarosewick: Index Programming

Jordyn Kosienski: Manger and Writer

 Our Promise
“Our company promises to fulfill the Weis
Mission of providing the most inviting buying
environment while saving consumers hard
earned money and valuable time.”
Weather
Why Weather Matters when it comes to Business: Weather can impact the
store both positively and negatively. Relying on us will make sure Weis is
always prepared for the worst weather.

What will be covered in this section:

● Winter Storms
● Hurricanes, though rare in this region
● The importance of short range v. long range forecasts
● Uncertainty surrounding the weather, but how we limit it
Weather: Winter Storms
Given the store our index is targeted at is located in State college, PA, They are at risk
for winter weather that can produce hazardous conditions for the store.

● Positives: Winter Storms are typically broadcasted by both the local

meteorologists and on social media, so people will flock to their local grocery store
to stock up on supplies like water and canned foods. Stocking up on supplies can
allow Weis to make a greater profit from increased sales as opposed to if a storm
didn't hit. According to Weis’ 10K report, gross profit rate dropped from 27.8% in
2016 to 26.8% in 2017 due to lower than average winter sales volume from a lack
of significant winter weather

https://www.google.com/search?q=winter+stor
m&tbm=isch&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0ahUK
Ewjxt5_Jp6PhAhVBSN8KHQ5dDeMQ_AUIDC
gD&biw=1525&bih=710&dpr=0.9#imgrc=cbqM0
asi3v6JtM:
Weather: Winter Storms
Negatives: Winter storms can obviously affect both travel and business
during the event of the storm. Knowing when to close is important to make
sure Weis doesnt lose out on profit.

If road conditions are expected to be bad, most people will avoid traveling
during the storm. (Hence why they stocked up on supplies in days previous).
At this point, it may be better for Weis to close, as they may lose money in
things like lighting the store, heat, paying employees, etc. as compared to
sales they will make.

If roads are expected to be bad enough, Weis needs to close in regards to

their employees safety. Keeping the store open would mean employees
traveling in hazardous conditions and putting their safety at risk.
Weather: Tropical Storms
Though rare in the State College area, Hurricanes/ Tropical storms are
always a possibility. As a result, The store could be subjected to wind damage
as well as torrential rain.

● Positives: As with winter storms, Weis can make an increased profit in

sales if people stock up in the days prior to the storm.
● Negatives: Weis will have to prepare their store for the chance of
leaking/flooding from torrential rains, as well as the possibility for wind
damage. Weis also needs to worry about the possibility of closing, as
heavy rains may cause road flooding and keep customers away, as well as
it is once again a safety concern for their employees traveling in
hazardous conditions.
Weather: Short Range Vs. Long Range
Forecasts

● Long Range Forecasts (7-10) days out are important for big winter and
tropical storms so that Weis has adequate time to stock up on supplies.

● Short Range Forecasts (1-3) are targeted more at less hazardous

weather. For example, if rain is expected, but not enough to cause
flooding, Weis’ roof may leak. This could be a liability due to customers
shopping in the store. However, knowing it may rain and have
buckets/employees on hand is the best way to go about this situation.
Weather: Uncertainty

Longer range forecasts are

subject to more error. The
farther out in time you go with
the forecast, the more
uncertainty that there is that
surrounds it.

Example: Hurricane cone of

uncertainty.
https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+uncerta
inty+winter+storms&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&
ved=0ahUKEwi83p7T0Z7hAhVCNd8KHXVNBbIQ_
AUIDygC&biw=1047&bih=488#imgdii=J41pXbu_XA
CobM:&imgrc=_SvO3m7dsVDteM:
 Weather: Uncertainty

Example:
Uncertainty in
winter storm
forecasts.
https://www.google.com/search
?q=forecast+error+improving&s
ource=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&v
ed=0ahUKEwjckb3yyaDhAhWyt
1kKHfLPD5YQ_AUIDygC&biw=1
525&bih=710&dpr=0.9#imgrc=lg
Hy2DWtM8NjtM:
Weather: Limiting Error
We can we trusted to give an
accurate forecast, however, as
they are always improving.
Technology advances and more
computer power over time give
way to better models, as well as
better things such as satellites
that give better initial conditions
for models.

Example: Forecast error in the

NH and SH has constantly
improved over the past three
decades, and still is (only goes
to 2013)
https://www.google.com/search?q=forecast+error+i
mproving&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ah
UKEwjckb3yyaDhAhWyt1kKHfLPD5YQ_AUIDygC&b
iw=1525&bih=710&dpr=0.9#imgrc=lgHy2DWtM8NjtM
:
Business and Industry
WHERE WE PLAN TO SAVE:
Labor Costs

Operating Costs

Food Spoilage

Transportation

Advertising

Store Closings
Business and Industry
Overall Potential Savings in 2017 without our index: $10,566

Potential Savings on Spoilage and Shipping 10% with our

index: $45,896

Potential Savings on Labor and Operating Expenses 1% with

our index: $66,344

Overall Potential Savings with index: $112,240

The Index
Four indexes produced: short and long range, transportation, and
hazardous weather.

Created by using our formulated weather forecast for your area and
running it through our program to determine the impacts weather
could have on your store and business and assigns it a color.

Impacts could affect transportation, both consumer and company, as

well as spoilage of goods, and staffing.

Index uses a color scale to show the scale of the impacts that are to come
so decision making and saving money can be made easier!
The color Scale
Application to computers
Home screen
Short Range
Long Range
Transportation Index
Hazardous Weather Outlook Index
$50,500
Sources Cited
● Borenstein, Seth. “Weather Forecasts Have Gotten Better, Believe It or Not.” Lehigh Valley Business Cycle, 19 Mar. 2019,
www.mcall.com/business/mc-weather-forecasts-improvement-20170602-story.html.
● Center, National Hurricane. “National Hurricane Center.” National Hurricane Center, 1 Jan. 2001, www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
● “National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, www.noaa.gov/.
● WEIS MARKETS, INC 2017 ANNUAL REPORT ON FORM 10-K,
www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105418/000010541818000006/wmk-20171230x10k.htm.
● Storm Advisory Watch - Most Weis Markets' Stores Have Closed Due to Weather-Will Reopen on Sunday at 9AM. | Weis
Markets,
www.weismarkets.com/storm-advisory-watch-most-weis-markets-stores-have-closed-due-weather-will-reopen-sunday-9am.
● https://www.upcounsel.com/examples-of-contracts