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Pharmaceuticals

4QFY19E Results Preview

Amey Chalke Eshan Desai


amey.chalke@hdfcsec.com eshan.desai@hdfcsec.com
09 Apr 2019 +91-22-6171-7321 +91-22-6639-2476
4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Recovery Continues
 This will be the second consecutive quarter with double-digit top-line Expect ~12% YoY Rev Growth For Our Coverage Universe
growth for our coverage universe, aided by a 9% YoY fall in the Rupee,
stabilized generic price erosion and improved launch momentum in the US. Revenues (Rs bn) %YoY Growth - RHS
However, on a QoQ basis, we expect a ~2% decline in the top-line due to a 500 20
427 422
weak season for acute-heavy companies and substantial inventory 380 400
371 377 378 15
400
adjustment in SUNP’s India business post discontinuation of a contract with 331
14.9 10
AML (promoter owned entity). Specialty spend by bigger pharma 13.3
300 1.9 11.7
companies like SUNP/ LPC, and a seasonally weak quarter for companies 7.8 5
like Cipla/ Alkem will weigh in on profitability. At an aggregate level, EBITDA 200
0
margin and earnings are expected to remain flat QoQ (+100bps/-7% YoY). 0.5 1.7
100 -8.1
 The US to drive growth in large-caps: Among large-caps, LPC, ARBP and -5
DRRD are expected to report better numbers on account of traction gained 0 -10
in the US. LPC will benefit from its gRanexa launch, ARBP will continue to

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19E
gain from shortage in certain products and new business opportunities
(NBOs) and gSuboxone launch will drive DRRD’s numbers in 4QFY19. SUNP
is likely to report single-digit top-line growth owing to a high base of
4QFY18 for the US business and a one-time inventory adjustment in India.
With an improved launch momentum, we expect CIPLA to meet its US$ Overall EBITDA Margin To Improve ~100bps YoY
125mn quarterly guidance for the US; however, a weaker season in India
EBITDA (Rs bn) Margin (%) - RHS
will keep profitability in check. Among mid-caps, TRP and STR are likely to
100 89 87 35
report strong performance led by improved traction in the US. 81 81 82
 CRAMS/API companies to report strong numbers: Within CRAMS and 80 74 74 30
diversified business models, DIVIS, DCAL, GRAN and LAURUS are likely to 60 25
report buoyant numbers in 4QFY19. DIVIS will continue to benefit from the 60 20
falling Rupee and Valsartan API supplies while DCAL will report strong 21.8 21.4 20.5 20.9 20.7
40 19.7 19.6 15
18.0
numbers on account of expanded capacity at its Swiss subsidiary and better
10
pricing in Vit D. Higher capacity utilization, backward integration and a ramp 20
5
up in formulations will drive both revenues and EBITDA for LAURUS and
GRAN in 4QFY19. JUBILANT will report double-digit growth in top-line and 0 0
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19E
EBITDA despite a high base of 4QFY18 due to pricing benefits in the generic
segment, resumption of vitamin supplies in the nutra segment and
continued momentum in radio pharma.
 Top picks: DRRD, JUBILANT, LAURUS Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Recovery Continues
4QFY19E
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK
 Revenue is expected to grow at ~6% YoY affected by a higher US  Specialty product pipeline and R&D spend
base and inventory adjustment in India business. Sequentially, we  Updates on approvals and launches
see a 4% drop.  Clarity on SEBI investigation related to
Sun Pharma AVG  EBITDA margin to contract due to sticky spend on the US corporate governance issues.
specialty business and a one time impact on account of lower
India sales. Expecting margin of ~21.6%, down ~250 YoY & QoQ.
 PAT to drop ~13% QoQ with loss of sales in India.
 Revenue growth will remain below universe-average at ~7% YoY/  Momentum in the US business
flat QoQ due to seasonality in the domestic business (weak for  Update on the capacity issues and geopolitical
acute-heavy portfolios), slowdown in certain EMs due to concerns
geopolitical concerns, internal capacity rebalancing activities, and  Tender business outlook
Cipla AVG slump in the tender business. However, we believe Cipla will  Updates on gAdvair filing and gProventil
maintain its momentum in the US (+5% QoQ in cc). launch
 EBITDA margin will remain under pressure at ~15%, down 250bps
QoQ/ flat YoY due to seasonality in the domestic market.
 Cadila will report ~11% YoY growth aided by its healthy launch  Ramp up in key launches like gAsacol HD and
momentum and currency tailwinds, despite a decline in Tamiflu gToprol XL
sales (led by a weaker flu season) and intensifying competition in
Cadila Healthcare GOOD gLialda. In constant currency, we expect single-digit YoY growth in
the US.
 EBITDA margin will come in at ~24%, down ~200bps YoY due to
decline in Tamiflu and gLialda.

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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Recovery Continues
4QFY19E
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK
 Despite a seasonally weak quarter for the domestic business,  Ramp up in the specialty portfolio (Solosec)
Lupin is expected to register ~4% QoQ topline growth driven by  Commentary on regulatory hurdles led by
exclusivity in gRanexa. On a YoY basis, we expect ~10% revenue recent US FDA inspections
Lupin GOOD growth aided by weaker Rupee and growth in India sales.
 We see a 600/100bps QoQ/YoY expansion in EBITDA margin
primarily owing to lucrative gRanexa sales, despite high specialty
spend and erosion in the Metformin franchise.

 Revenue is expected to grow 10% YoY and remain flat QoQ on  Update on key launches including gNuvaring
the back of US recovery led by gSuboxone launch. and gCopaxone
Dr Reddy’s Labs GOOD
 Focus on cost control measures, gSuboxone launch in the US and  Outlook of the regulatory status of Bachupally
oncology injectables supplied to RoW markets will further drive and Srikakulam facilities
profitability. EBITDA margin at ~23% to expand 740bps YoY and
180bps QoQ.
 Top-line growth will likely be strong at ~25% YoY owing to one  Details on new product approvals and
time benefits coming in from shortage in several US products launches
Aurobindo and fallen Rupee (9%YoY).  Comments on ARV business performance
VERY GOOD  Higher specialty spend and R&D will keep EBITDA margin
Pharma
improvement in check. We expect the margin to clock in at ~20%.
(flat YoY/QoQ)
 While the temporary Valsartan opportunity, favourable currency  Commentary on sustainable revenue growth
and clearance of import alert will lead to a ~20% YoY growth in for the coming quarters, with stabilizing
revenue; sequentially lower realization will lead to a ~3% QoQ Sartans market
Divi’s Labs GOOD decline.  Outlook of raw material prices
 With a rise in the Rupee from Rs 72/$ to Rs 69/$ over the
quarter, EBITDA margin will be at ~38%, correcting ~400bps
sequentially.
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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Recovery Continues
4QFY19E
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK
 Alkem should report healthy top-line growth of ~13% YoY aided  Commentary on gMycophenolate market
by its stable domestic business (+10%) and strong performance in share post entry of competition
the US (+27%). Sequentially, we expect a ~12% decline in  Performance in other international markets
Alkem Labs AVG revenue due to a seasonally weak domestic quarter and
competition in gMycophenolate.
 EBITDA margin is likely to be subdued at ~13% due to inferior
business mix (weak domestic quarter).
 Revenue growth of ~17% YoY will be led by the strong  Pick-up in filings for the US market
performance in India on a low base, and favourable currency for  Timeline for launches of in-hand products in
the US business aided by continued momentum in Valsartan the US market
Torrent Pharma GOOD supplies.
 EBITDA margin is expected to be at ~26%, improving ~480bps YoY
on the back of profitable Valsartan opportunity and synergies
from the Unichem portfolio acquisition.
 Top-line growth is expected to remain muted at ~7% YoY aided  Comments on limited-competition
by a low base. Lack of lucrative new launches in the US would opportunities and new launches
limit cc growth at low single-digit YoY. Domestic business should  Update on debt reduction plans with the
Glenmark BAD register ~12% YoY growth on a low base. divestment of API and Indian Ortho businesses
 EBITDA margin is likely to improve ~180bps YoY to 16% aided by
improvement in raw material prices.
 Revenue is expected to see a ~10% YoY growth on the back of  Updates on input cost improvement in the
higher Valsartan supplies in the pharma segment (+21% YoY). chemicals business
Growth in the chemicals segment is likely to remain subdued (on  Expected benefit from IFC loan settlement
Jubilant Life
GOOD a high base).  Outlook on resolution of ongoing US FDA
Sciences  EBITDA margin would come to ~21%, largely remaining flat concerns for Roorkee and Nanjangud plants
despite higher employee cost; aided by better product mix in the  We have downgraded our multiple from 14x
chemicals segment. to 12x EPS post regulatory issues
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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Recovery Continues
4QFY19E
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK
 Revenue is likely to grow 17% YoY on the back of the short-term  Updates on commissioning of new plant
Valsartan opportunity in the US. Sequentially, we expect  Price erosion in the US
revenues to decline 2% owing to seasonality in India and
Alembic Pharma GOOD stabilizing supplies of Valsartan.
 EBITDA margin to expand ~170bps YoY to ~22% owing to the
Valsartan opportunity.
 Top line is likely to report strong double-digit growth of ~27% YoY  Ramp up in the US business with return of
due to traction gained in the US (+1.4x YoY) with the return of partnered products
Strides Shasun VERY GOOD partnered products.  Updates on CGT opportunity
 EBITDA margin should expand ~380bps YoY on the back of  Visibility on product approvals and launches
recovery in the US business. We see EBITDA margin at ~17%.
 Revenue is likely to grow ~14/7% YoY/QoQ as some commercial  Update on commercial product launches over
orders were postponed to 4QFY19. The Vit D biz is also likely to the next 2 years
Dishman
VERY GOOD
report double digit growth of ~13% YoY.  Outlook for Vitamin D softgel business
Carbogen  Expecting EBITDA margin at ~29%, expanding 260/170bps
YoY/QoQ aided by oplev and improved business mix.

 Expecting revenue to grow at ~20% YoY led by gMethergine sales  Improvement in material cost
and higher capacity utilisation, with expanded capacity for  Comments on gMethergine market share
Granules India GOOD Paracetamol and Metformin.  Further reduction in pledged shares
 EBITDA margin to remain sequentially flat at ~17.5%.
 Revenue to remain flat owing to a high base YoY. Traction gained  Ramp up in niche API molecules and progress
in the Niche segment will drive ~18% YoY segmental growth. on various CMS projects
Neuland Labs AVG  EBITDA margin should improve sequentially on the back of better  Improvement in raw material prices
business mix and improvement in raw material prices. Expect  Updates on backward integration
EBITDA margin at ~10.5%.
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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Recovery Continues
4QFY19E
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK
 Commencement of TLD supplies to Global Fund and  Expected ARV formulation supplies to global
postponement of ARV API orders from 2Q & 3Q over to 4QFY19 tenders for FY20
will drive 9/19% YoY/QoQ revenue growth.  Improvement in raw material prices and
Laurus Labs VERY GOOD  EBITDA margin to improve ~330bps sequentially, owing to backward integration for FTC
backward integration in FTC and improvement in business mix.
Margin is expected to be at ~17.5%.
 Revenue growth of ~37% QoQ will be driven by commercial  Guidance for commercial supplies
Suven Life launches and orders postponed from the previous quarters.  Progress of clinical trials for SUV 502
Sciences
GOOD  Higher commercial launches and oplev will drive ~750bps QoQ
improvement in EBITDA margin, which should come in at ~35%.

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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Financial Summary
NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS (Rs/sh)
Company 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q 3Q 4Q
FY19E (%) (%) FY19E (%) (%) FY19E (%) (%) FY19E (%) (%) FY19E FY19 FY18
Sun Pharma 74.4 (3.9) 6.6 16.0 (13.0) (4.7) 21.6 (225.1) (256.5) 8.1 (13.4) (38.3) 3.4 3.9 3.5
Aurobindo Pharma 50.5 (4.2) 24.7 10.3 (5.1) 28.3 20.4 (18.2) 57.6 6.4 (7.2) 18.3 10.9 11.3 10.1
Dr. Reddy's Labs 38.9 0.9 9.9 8.9 9.4 62.0 23.0 178.5 738.2 5.2 13.3 70.7 31.1 28.4 20.1
Divi's Labs 13.0 (3.1) 19.7 5.0 (12.2) 28.2 38.0 (398.5) 251.9 3.6 (13.6) 52.4 13.7 13.0 9.1
Cipla 39.6 (1.2) 7.1 6.0 (15.0) 8.1 15.2 (246.3) 13.6 1.9 (42.4) (25.3) 2.4 4.7 5.0
Lupin 44.4 3.5 10.2 8.2 51.2 15.7 18.4 582.3 87.7 4.4 (835.6) (35.8) 9.7 5.9 4.9
Cadila Healthcare 36.0 0.2 10.9 8.7 0.0 2.9 24.1 (2.9) (186.4) 5.4 4.9 (11.7) 5.2 4.1 5.3
Torrent Pharma 19.9 0.2 16.6 5.2 (1.3) 42.6 26.1 (39.0) 475.7 1.7 (21.4) (23.7) 10.3 11.6 3.4
Alkem Labs 17.0 (11.6) 12.5 2.2 (29.9) 92.1 12.8 (336.1) 532.0 1.3 (34.5) 102.9 11.2 21.8 15.1
Glenmark Pharma 24.4 (4.5) 7.0 3.9 (9.7) 20.1 16.1 (93.2) 175.5 1.3 9.4 (15.8) 4.5 10.4 3.7
Jubilant Life Sciences 24.7 4.1 9.8 5.1 4.0 12.0 20.7 (1.9) 39.9 2.6 (3.4) 69.6 16.2 13.5 13.7
Alembic Pharma 10.0 (1.7) 17.3 2.2 (9.2) 26.9 22.0 (181.8) 167.2 1.4 (13.7) 46.5 7.3 10.6 6.5
Strides Shasun 8.4 5.8 26.6 1.4 11.1 63.2 16.8 79.5 376.4 0.2 4.2 (47.9) 2.8 0.1 6.0
Laurus Labs 6.1 18.5 9.0 1.1 45.8 (8.1) 17.6 329.7 (326.6) 0.3 317.5 (25.8) 3.1 2.5 3.3
Dishman Carbogen 5.1 7.0 13.5 1.5 13.5 24.4 29.4 168.4 256.9 0.6 16.4 16.9 3.7 2.7 2.6
Suven Life Sciences 1.8 37.4 (17.1) 0.6 74.6 (31.9) 35.1 747.4 (762.7) 0.5 111.1 (14.8) 4.2 1.4 2.7
Granules India 6.1 (4.0) 20.4 1.1 (5.4) 145.5 17.7 (26.9) 900.5 0.6 2.2 201.7 2.4 2.4 1.4
Neuland Labs 1.6 (7.2) (0.7) 0.2 5.5 (11.0) 10.5 126.5 (122.3) 0.0 1.4 (42.1) 3.6 3.4 0.7
Aggregate 422.0 (1.1) 11.7 87.4 (2.2) 17.3 20.7 (22.4) 99.6 45.4 2.6 (6.6)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Peer Set Comparison


Mcap CMP EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)
Company Reco TP/ FV
(Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Sun Pharma 1,130 471 BUY 640 13.0 15.3 20.7 27.2 36.3 30.8 22.7 17.3 8.3 9.3 11.7 13.7
Aurobindo Pharma 460 786 NEU 800 41.4 42.2 54.1 53.2 19.0 18.6 14.5 14.8 23.0 19.2 20.4 16.8
Dr Reddy's Labs 457 2,753 BUY 3,400 59.2 109.7 124.4 151.3 46.5 25.1 22.1 18.2 7.8 13.6 13.6 14.3
Divis Labs 456 1,716 SELL 1,445 32.4 52.4 56.8 65.7 53.0 32.8 30.2 26.1 15.2 21.3 20.3 20.4
Cipla 428 532 BUY 630 18.6 16.8 21.1 28.6 28.7 31.7 25.2 18.6 11.2 9.1 10.6 12.9
Lupin 367 811 BUY 1,060 38.0 15.4 32.5 48.5 21.3 52.6 25.0 16.7 12.7 5.0 10.0 13.6
Cadila Healthcare 350 342 BUY 470 13.0 14.8 17.2 21.4 26.3 23.1 19.8 16.0 17.0 16.0 16.1 17.3
Torrent Pharma 316 1,867 NEU 1,920 40.1 45.8 63.8 87.2 46.6 40.8 29.3 21.4 15.1 15.8 19.2 22.3
Alkem Labs 207 1,735 BUY 2,240 57.6 63.4 80.9 101.9 30.1 27.4 21.5 17.0 14.8 14.7 16.6 18.3
Glenmark Pharma 181 641 BUY 835 17.5 27.0 33.9 43.7 36.7 23.8 18.9 14.7 9.4 12.7 14.0 15.7
Jubilant Life Sciences 108 681 BUY 1,005 45.5 58.8 68.6 83.8 14.9 11.6 9.9 8.1 19.3 20.8 20.2 0.0
Alembic Pharma 102 539 NEU 595 21.9 24.1 24.5 32.9 24.6 22.4 22.1 16.4 20.0 18.5 16.1 18.8
Strides Shasun 44 490 BUY 620 12.7 5.8 30.8 39.3 38.6 85.1 15.9 12.5 4.4 2.0 9.7 11.4
Laurus Labs 43 401 BUY 535 15.8 8.5 17.7 29.8 25.4 47.4 22.6 13.5 11.9 4.6 11.5 16.9
Dishman Carbogen 37 229 BUY 400 13.2 15.7 20.9 26.7 17.3 14.6 11.0 8.6 14.6 15.0 16.7 18.1
Suven Life Sciences 34 269 NR 465 9.7 5.6 9.8 11.3 27.7 48.2 27.4 23.9 17.2 8.9 14.2 14.5
Granules India 28 112 BUY 170 5.2 9.2 11.3 14.2 21.5 12.2 9.9 7.9 12.0 16.8 17.8 19.2
Neuland Labs 9 694 BUY 930 10.8 10.8 37.5 66.5 64.2 64.1 18.5 10.4 2.2 2.2 6.7 11.0
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-) 10% returns over the next 12 month period

Disclosure:
We, Amey Chalke, MBA & Eshan Desai, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related
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Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock –No
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4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

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