Autos

4QFY19E Results Preview

Aditya Makharia Mansi Lall

aditya.makharia@hdfcsec.com mansi.lall@hdfcsec.com
12 Apr 2019 +91-22-6171 7316 +91-22-3021 2070
 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: A Sedate Quarter

 4QFY19E is expected to be a challenging quarter, with volumes 4QFY19 Volume Summary
declining across segments. OEM’s have destocked inventory by Company 4QFY19 % YoY % QoQ
Ashok Leyland 58,722 (0) 34
lowering production to align with market demand. Retails have been
- MHCV 43,220 (3) 45
impacted due to multiple factors including higher insurance cost,
- LCV 15,502 8 11
unseasonal weather as well as restricted finance availability.
Bajaj Auto 1,193,589 14 (5)
 Outlook: The auto index has underperformed the broader market - 2W 1,001,983 17 (7)
rally due to the sector challenges. The valuations have corrected and - 3W 191,606 1 6
stocks are trading at their average mean levels. In the current Hero Motocorp 1,781,250 (11) (1)
environment, we prefer Maruti in auto OEM’s and Subros in the Maruti 458,479 (1) 7
ancillary segment as the company is executing on its diversification M&M 235,745 (0) 1
strategy. We have a sell on Eicher due to rising competition amidst a - Auto 174,679 6 22
- Tractors 61,066 (14) (32)
weak demand environment.
Tata Motors 193,015 (6) 12
 Over the quarter, the 2W segment posted a volume decline of 7.5%, - PV 54,422 (8) 9
whereas CVs were flat YoY. PV volumes declined 4% YoY. Within - CV 138,593 (5) 14
CV‘s, M&HCV volumes fell -5% YoY while LCV volumes grew 2% YoY. TVS 907,328 2 (8)
 OEM’s are expected to report a weak quarter – we expect - 2W 865,789 1 (9)
- 3W 41,539 41 5
profitability to be impacted due to operating de-leverage (as volumes
Eicher 216,594 (13) 2
have come off) and higher discounting levels. We expect net profit to
- 2W 196,162 (14) 1
decline for the two wheeler OEM’s and Ashok Leyland. Aggregate
- CV 20,432 (12) 21
profits for companies under coverage are expected to decline -6%
YoY. Stock recommendation
 Auto ancillaries are expected to report a relatively better operating Company Reco Company Reco

performance as compared to the OEM’s due to their diversified Ashok Leyland NEU Jamna Auto BUY
Bajaj Auto BUY Lumax Auto Tech BUY
revenue base across segments and geographies. We expect Subros
Eicher SELL NRB Bearings NEU
and Lumax to report growth in profits.
Hero Motocorp BUY RkForgings BUY
 We have lowered our FY19-21 EPS estimates for Hero by 5% and are Maruti Suzuki BUY Subros BUY
lowering our target price to Rs.3,180 based on 16x FY21E EPS. Source: Company,HDFC Sec Inst Research
2
 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: A Sedate Quarter

 Over the quarter, the 2W segment posted a volume decline of 7.5%,
whereas CVs were flat YoY. PV volumes declined 4% YoY. Within
CV‘s, M&HCV volumes fell -5% YoY while LCV volumes grew 2% YoY.
OEM’s have gone ahead with production cuts in this quarter to align
with market demand. Thus, channel inventories have started
normalizing.
 Aggregate profits for auto OEM’s under coverage is expected to
decline -6% yoy. The auto index has underperformed the broader
market rally due to the sector challenges. The valuations have
corrected and stocks are trading at their average mean levels.
 We expect the coming quarter sales (1QFY20) to remain weak in the
backdrop of the general elections. Subsequently, demand trends will
be determined by the onset of the monsoons, pre buying activity
ahead of the BSVI roll out as well as policy initiatives which will be
introduced by the new government.
 In the current environment, we prefer Maruti in auto OEM’s and
Subros in the ancillary segment as the company is executing on its
diversification strategy. We have a sell on Eicher due to rising
competition amidst a weak demand environment.

Change in Estimates for Hero Motocorp

Old New % change
Particulars (Rs mn)
FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenue 340,726 382,842 407,837 335,395 373,797 398,207 (1.6) (2.4) (2.4)
EBITDA 50,068 58,341 61,306 49,284 55,804 59,063 (1.6) (4.3) (3.7)
EBITDA margin (%) 14.7 15.2 15.0 14.7 14.9 14.8 0 bps -30 bps -20 bps
APAT 35,418 40,168 42,328 33,987 37,552 39,698 (4.0) (6.5) (6.2)
Adj. EPS 177 201 212 170 188 199 (3.8) (6.4) (6.2)
Source: Company,HDFC Sec Inst Research

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 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: Financial Summary

Volume (in units ‘000) NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS
COMPANIES 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q 3Q 4Q
FY19E (%) (%) FY19E (%) (%) FY19E (bps) (bps) FY19E (%) (%) FY19E FY19 FY18
AUTOS
Ashok Leyland 59 34 (0) 85 35 (3) 10.5 23 (127) 6 57 (10) 2.0 1.3 2.3
Bajaj Auto 1,194 (5) 14 70 (5) 4 16.2 60 (322) 11 (4) (3) 36.4 38.1 37.3
Eicher 217 2 (13) 243 4 (4) 29.5 47 (203) 6 9 (10) 214.8 196.7 239.3
Hero Motocorp 1,781 (1) (11) 78 (1) (9) 13.8 (25) (220) 8 (1) (21) 38.1 38.6 48.5
Maruti Suzuki 458 7 (1) 222 9 2 13.1 367 (74) 19 30 3 64.0 49.3 62.3
Aggregate 480 8 (1) 14.1 160 (152) 49 15 (6)

NET SALES (Rs mn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs mn) Adj. EPS
COMPANIES 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q QoQ YoY 4Q 3Q 4Q
FY19E (%) (%) FY19E (bps) (bps) FY19E (%) (%) FY19E FY19 FY18
AUTO ANCILLARIES
Jamna Auto 6,013 24 1 14.5 143 (49) 474 66 1 1.2 0.7 1.2
Lumax Auto 3,482 9 5 9.3 38 80 186 7 20 2.7 2.5 2.3
NRB Bearings 2,412 (1) 2 16.8 (49) (109) 259 (3) (3) 2.7 2.8 2.8
RKForgings 4,884 (1) 11 21.1 (43) 27 352 4 3 10.8 10.4 10.5
Subros 5,798 14 5 11.1 (3) (43) 231 34 24 3.9 2.9 3.1
Suprajit Engineering 3,983 (2) (2) 16.7 175 (137) 468 19 (17) 3.3 2.8 4.0
Swaraj Engines 1,837 (8) (1) 14.6 77 (82) 170 (1.7) (4.6) 14.1 14.3 14.7
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research

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 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19: Stock Performance

The auto index has underperformed the broader market rally due to the
sector challenges NIFTY NIFTYAUTO
12,000

Stock performance (%) 11,000

1M 3M 6M 1Y 10,000
Nifty 4 7 11 11
Nifty Auto (2) (3) (4) (24) 9,000

Ashok Leyland 2 (4) (20) (37)

8,000
Bajaj Auto (0) 8 14 6

Feb-19
Sep-18

Jan-19

Mar-19
Dec-18
Jun-18

Aug-18
Jul-18

Oct-18
Apr-18

May-18

Apr-19
Nov-18
Eicher Motors (4) 2 (7) (30)
Exide Industries (2) (16) (14) (7)
Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research
Hero Motocorp (5) (11) (11) (30)
Jamna Auto (0) (4) (16) (30)
30
Lumax Auto (14) (20) (14) (22)
15
M&M (2) (9) (13) (14)
-
Maruti 3 (3) 3 (23)
(15)
NRB Bearings (2) (3) 21 22
(30)
RK Forgings 0 1 (10) (38) (45)

Nifty
Bajaj Auto

M&M

Swaraj Engines
NRB Bearings

Suprajit Engineering

Jamna Auto
TVS

RK Forgings
Ashok Leyland
Nifty Auto
Lumax Auto
Maruti
Exide Industries

Subros

Tata Motors
Hero Motocorp
Eicher Motors
Subros 6 4 6 (19)
Suprajit Engineering 5 4 (3) (20)
Swaraj Engines (1) (7) 3 (30)
Tata Motors 19 16 14 (39)
TVS (5) (11) (10) (25)
Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research
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 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19: Commodity Prices

Over the quarter, commodity prices have been range bound QoQ.

Brent Price ($/bbl) Steel Price ($/MT)

160 700
140
600
120
100 500

80 400
60
300
40
20 200

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
Dec-13

Dec-16
Aug-13

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-18
Aug-14

Aug-17
Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-19
Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-15

Apr-18
Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research

Copper Price ($)

Aluminium Price ($)
12,000
3,500
10,000
3,000
8,000
2,500
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,500
2,000
1,000
Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-18

Apr-19
Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research
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 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19: Cross Currency Trends

Over the quarter, the INR has strengthened vs. key currencies

USD/INR INR/JPY
1.7
74
1.7
72

70 1.6
68
1.6
66

64 1.5

Sep-18

Feb-19
Jan-19

Mar-19
Jun-18

Dec-18
Jul-18

Aug-18

Oct-18
Apr-18

May-18

Apr-19
Nov-18
Jul-18

Aug-18

Oct-18
Apr-18

May-18

Apr-19
Nov-18

Feb-19
Sep-18

Jan-19

Mar-19
Jun-18

Dec-18

Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research

EUR/INR GBP/INR
86 100

84
95
82

80
90
78

76 85
Sep-18

Sep-18

Feb-19
Feb-19
Jan-19

Jan-19
Mar-19

Mar-19
Dec-18

Jun-18
Jun-18

Dec-18
Aug-18

Aug-18
Jul-18

Jul-18
Oct-18

Oct-18
Apr-18

May-18

Apr-19

Apr-18

May-18

Apr-19
Nov-18
Nov-18

Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC Sec Inst Research
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 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: A Sedate Quarter

4QFY19
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK
 We except revenues to grow marginally (+2% YoY) due to flat  Further details about the expanded Toyota –
sales (-0.7%) Suzuki – Maruti partnership
Maruti Suzuki AVG  EBITDA margin to contract by 70bps YoY (+370bps QoQ) to  Update on demand scenario, channel
13.1% due to higher discounts inventory, discounting trends and new
 PAT to grow by 3% YoY (+30% QoQ) launches

 We expect revenues to grow by 4% YoY, led by 14% increase in  Export demand outlook
volumes.  Domestic market share targets in the two
 We expect operating margins to contract by 320bps YoY (+60bp wheeler segment
Bajaj Auto AVG
QoQ) to 16.2%, due to a weaker product mix (higher share of  New developments / launches in the EV
economy segment bikes) space – particularly for 3 wheelers
 We expect PAT to decline -3% YoY (-5% QoQ)
 We expect a decline in revenue of 9% YoY, due to 11% YoY drop  Update on demand trend in rural and urban
in volumes. markets
Hero MotoCorp WEAK  We expect the margin to contract by 220bps YoY (-25bps QoQ)  New model launch pipeline
to 13.8%
 PAT to decline by ~22% YoY (+1% QoQ)
 We expect 3% YoY decline in revenues due to flat volume sales.  CV demand outlook – pre buying trends
 Realizations to fall due to adverse mix (lower share of M&HCVs)  Update on LCVs, exports and defense
and higher discounts business.
Ashok Leyland WEAK
 EBITDA margin to see a contraction of 130bps YoY to 10.5%  Update on appointment of new CEO
(+20bps QoQ)
 PAT decline of 10% (+57% QoQ)
 We expect a revenue decline of 4% led by 13% decline in the  Demand outlook – more clarity on
volumes. Realizations will be higher due to price hikes taken management’s production target of 950K
Eicher WEAK through the year (introduction of ABS) units (+13% YoY) for FY20E
 EBITDA margin contraction by 200bps to 29.5% (+50bp QoQ).
8
 PAT decline of 10% YoY (+9% QoQ)
 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: A Sedate Quarter

4QFY19
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK

 Net sales to grow by 5% YoY (+14% QoQ) - a decline in
passenger vehicle industry sales will be offset by Subros’s
expansion into new products / segments
Subros Good
 EBITDA margin contraction by 40bps to 11.1%
 PAT growth of 24% YoY would be supported by lower interest
costs
 Top line to increase by 5% YoY (+9% QoQ) - Growth is expected
to moderate due to the sale of SMT business in the last quarter
Lumax Autotech Good
 EBIDTA margin to expand by 80bps YoY (+40bps QoQ) to 9.3%
 Profit to grow +20% YoY, +7% QoQ
 We expect sales to remain flat due to weak CV industry sales
Jamna Auto AVG  Margin to contract by 50bps YoY to 14.5% (+140bps QoQ).
 We expect the PAT to grow by 1% YoY .
 Details about the acquisition of Zamil’s assets
in India
 Growth outlook for the automobile segment
in FY20E
 Update on acquisition of new business from
OEMs
 Margin and revenue guidance for FY20E
 Mix of conventional/parabolic springs for the
quarter
 Update on aftermarket sales

 We expect marginal revenue growth (+3%YoY, flat QoQ), due to  Demand outlook – particularly for the two
lower 2W industry sales. wheeler segment
NRB Bearings AVG  Margins to contract by 110bps YoY to 16.8% (+50bps QoQ),  Aftermarket growth and outlook
owing to weaker product mix (lower revenue from CVs).
 We expect PAT to decline by 3% YoY and QoQ.
 Higher realizations / improved export revenues to result in 11%  Update on export orders for its heavy press
Ramkrishna YoY growth (flat QoQ) in revenue. lines
AVG  EBITDA margin to remain flat at 21%, (+30bps YoY, -40bps QoQ)  Demand outlook for the M/HCV segment –
Forgings
 PAT growth of 3% YoY (4% QoQ). both for India as well as US markets

9
 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: A Sedate Quarter

4QFY19
COMPANY WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
OUTLOOK

 Consolidated revenues to decline by 2% YoY and QoQ  Outlook on margins in SEL and Phoenix
Suprajit  EBIDTA margin to see 135bps YoY (+175bps QoQ) contraction to  Performance of Wescon and the outlook
WEAK
Engineering 16.7% due by subdued margin of Phoenix and Wescon ahead

 Expect revenues to remain flat YoY (-8% QoQ) due to weak  Industry outlook for the tractor segment
tractor demand
Swaraj Engines WEAK  EBITDA margin at 14.6% will decline 80bps YoY owing to the
above

10
 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

4QFY19E: Peer Set Comparison

Mcap CMP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
Reco TP
(Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E
AUTOS
Ashok Leyland 277 95 NEU 90 6.4 7.2 6.9 14.7 13.2 13.6 7.7 6.8 6.8 25.7 24.1 20.8
Bajaj Auto 866 29,94 BUY 3,174 152.8 170.5 190.5 19.6 17.6 15.7 14.1 11.9 10.2 21.5 22.1 21.8
Eicher 572 20,998 SELL 21,000 833.0 907.5 977.4 25.2 23.1 21.5 16.8 14.8 12.8 28.3 24.8 22.0
Hero Motocorp 519 2,601 BUY 3,180 171.1 188.0 198.8 15.2 13.8 13.1 8.8 7.6 7.0 25.6 25.2 23.9
Maruti Suzuki 2,169 7,179 BUY 7,350 253.0 290.5 316.2 28.4 24.7 22.7 15.8 12.9 11.1 15.6 16.6 16.0
AUTO ANCS
Jamna Auto 24 59 BUY 75 3.8 4.4 4.7 15.6 13.6 12.5 8.8 7.6 6.9 30.6 30.5 27.5
Lumax Auto Tech 9 136 BUY 180 11.3 9.6 11.1 12.0 14.1 12.2 7.2 6.9 5.8 14.3 12.4 13.0
NRB Bearings 19 193 NEU 217 12.0 12.1 12.9 16.0 15.9 14.9 10.3 9.5 8.6 25.1 23.3 21.3
RKForgings 17 520 BUY 705 39.8 44.3 52.3 13.1 11.7 9.9 6.7 6.0 5.1 15.3 15.3 15.6
Subros 18 279 BUY 309 14.4 15.8 19.0 19.3 17.6 14.7 8.3 6.9 5.7 16.0 14.4 15.6
Suprajit Eng 32 226 NR* 216 9.9 11.4 13.1 22.8 19.9 17.2 13.8 12.2 10.4 19.7 18.8 18.4
Swaraj Engines 17 1,386 NR* 1,600 68.3 83.3 94.1 20.3 16.6 14.7 11.1 9.2 7.8 35.6 36.4 35.0
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research *NR= Not Rated

11
 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-) 10% returns over the next 12 month period

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 4QFY19E RESULTS PREVIEW

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