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International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice
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The spatial pattern of motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juárez,
Mexico (2014): An application of ESDA and spatial
regression approaches.
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Journal: International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice

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Manuscript ID Draft
Manuscript Type: Original Article

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Keywords: Spatial analysis, Motor vehicle thefts, Ciudad Juarez, Carjaking, ESDA
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URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

Page 1 of 37 International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice
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The spatial pattern of motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico
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(2014): An application of ESDA and spatial regression approaches.
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8 Abstract. Ciudad Juárez since 2007 the city experienced a rise of crimes such as motor vehicle theft
9 and carjacking, reaching a peak of 13,604 in 2011. However, such crime does not show a
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11 homogenous spatial pattern. In this context, the research question is: Does exists spatial relationship
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between concentration of motor vehicle theft and environmental factors? The theoretical
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14 background is provided by the routine activities theory. The data includes criminal warrants of
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16 motor vehicle theft provided by the Citizen Observatory of Safety, Justice and Prevention (2014)
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17 and the rest of socioeconomic variables were provided by the Housing and Population Census,
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19 2010, all of them at census tract level. The methodology used ESDA and spatial regression model.
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20 The result of ESDA and the multiple regression shows that commerce and service land use
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22 influence motor vehicle theft crimes. These findings allow us to design public security polices
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oriented to the situational prevention of the crime.

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Keywords: Motor vehicle theft; spatial pattern; Ciudad Juárez.

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Introduction.
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31 Ciudad Juárez, since the 1990s has experienced an increase in crimes such as feminicide,
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33 kidnaping and extortions (Fuentes & Hernández, 2013). However, since 2007 the city has
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35 been at the centre of the war on drugs, where drugs cartels fight each other to compete for
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control of drug trafficking routes, local drugs markets and international ports of entry
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40 (Fuentes and Hernández, 2014). As a result of the confrontation, the drugs cartels
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42 diversified their criminal activities such as kidnaping, extortions, robbery, carjacking and
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45 motor vehicle thefts (Benitez, 2009). In this context, the city experienced a rise of crimes
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47 such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking (Fuentes and Hernández, 2014; Fuentes and
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49 Peña, 2017). The number of motor vehicle theft increased from 3,653 in 2005 to 9,109 in
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2011, since then decreased to reach 2,083 in 2017 (Executive Secretariat of the System of
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54 Public Security, 2017). However, motor vehicle thefts are not randomly distributed in the
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60 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu
International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice Page 2 of 37
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3 city but are concentrated in certain places such as downtown and along the commercial and
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service corridors that communicate with the international ports of entry.
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8 The concentration of the motor vehicle thefts in commercial and service land use is
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10 consistent with the concept of suitable targets that the routine activity theory (Cohen &
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Felson, 1979) proposes. According with this theory the chances of crime increase or
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15 decrease in one place depend of “three elements: motivated offenders, suitable targets and
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17 the absence of capable guardians” (Cohen & Felson; 1979: 589). The suitable targets
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19 include persons, objects and places such as commerce and services areas in Ciudad Juarez
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22 (Argun & Dağlar, 2016). The theory focuses its attention to the importance of the
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24 “opportunity in determining the distribution of the crime across time and space” (Argun &
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26 Dağlar, 2016: 1188).
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This theory also explains the spatial variation in motor vehicle thefts as due to
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31 physical, social and economic characteristics of the environment. A common conclusion of
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33 the empirical studies that used the routine activity theory to analyse crimes is that crime is
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not randomly distributed in space (Wortley & Mazerolle, 2008), but is associated with the
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situational characteristics of the place in which it occurs (Brantingham & Brantingham,
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40 1993). This means that the geographic patterns of crime can be statistically associated with
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42 the structural conditions and the social composition of different areas that make up a city
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45 (Vilalta, 2009).
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47 The use of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) helps to identify suitable
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49 targets such as motor vehicle theft and can be an important input in the design of public
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security policies. The results of the georeferenced indicators can also be of significant help
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54 in identifying areas where preventive actions against crime can be implemented and
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56 complemented with citizen security programs, etc. (Vilalta, 2010). Besides, to understand
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3 the relationship between auto thefts and socioeconomic variables we will a spatial
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regression model. It will “improve the prediction power of crime maps and analysis,
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8 increasing their usefulness” (Argun & Dağlar, 2016: 1191)
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10 In Mexico, there are few studies that test the routine Activity theory on property
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crime such as motor vehicle theft; one of the few analyses the phenomenon at the aggregate
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15 level of Mexico City divisions (Vilalta, 2011). Another study analyses the clusters of motor
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17 vehicle thefts associated with sociodemographic variables in the central delegations of
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19 Mexico City at the census tract level (Sánchez & Fuentes, 2015).
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22 In this context, the article aims is to exanimate the routine activity theory by the
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24 property crime such as motor vehicle theft by using exploratory spatial data analysis and
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26 spatial regression approaches in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico (2014).
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This article is organized as follows. The first section provides a general review of
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31 routine activity theory. The second section describes the methods used in the analysis and
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33 the characteristics of the database. The third section presents the methods and data. The
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fourth sections present the results of the exploratory spatial data analysis and the
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construction of a spatial regression model to analyse the relationship between motor vehicle
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40 thefts and environmental characteristics. Finally, the fifth section discusses the results.
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43 Routine activity theory.
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45 Routine activity theory (RAT) concentrates in temporal and locational aspects of human
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47 behaviour in community settings (Cohen and Felson, 1979). This theoretical proposal
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50 suggests that certain spaces can be generators of crime, due to the presence of three
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52 elements: “suitable target, motivated offender and absence of capable guardians” (Felson &
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54 Clarke 1979; 589).
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3 This theoretical perspective has relevance for the study of the spatial distribution of
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crimes, specifically motor vehicle thefts, due to their concentration in the territory (Cohen
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8 & Felson, 1979). This theoretical approach indicates that crime trends are related to the
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10 patterns of routine Activity, which are defined as “any recurrent and prevailing activity that
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provides the population and individuals with basic needs, whatever their biological or
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15 cultural origins” (Cohen & Felson, 1979:593).
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17 For Cohen and Felson (1979), the classical theory of human ecology (Hawley,
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19 1950) treats community not only as a unit of territory, but rather as the organization of
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22 human relationships that take place in space and time. In this framework, three important
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24 temporal components of the structure of the Hawley’s human ecology theory are utilized:
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26 “a) Rhythm, the regular periodicity with which events occur; b) Time, the number of events
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per unit of time, such as the number of crimes per day in a given street; and c)
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31 Synchronization, the coordination between different activities that are interdependent, such
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33 as the coordination of rhythms of an offender with those of a victim” (Cohen & Felson,
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1979: 593). The modification of any of these three attributes is usually sufficient to prevent
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the occurrence of crimes.
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40 Empirical studies have tested the presence of three elements: suitable target,
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42 motivated offender and absence of capable guardians. The variables associated with a
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45 suitable target include the risk of residential theft, among which are: the value of housing
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47 (Bursik & Grasmick, 1993; Kennedy & Forde, 1990; Kohfeld & Sprague, 1988; Paternoster
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49 & Bushway, 2001); the property regime and the type of housing (Ceccato, Haining &
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Signoretta, 2002; Neustrom & Norton: 1995); household income (Bursik & Grasmick,
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54 1993; Rountree & Land, 2000); uninhabited homes through foreclosure trials (Arnio,
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56 Baumer & Wolff K., 2012; Ellen, Lacoe & Sharygin, 2013; Immergluck & Smith, 2006),
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3 and residential mobility (Ceccato, Haining & Signoretta, 2002; Hartnagel, 2004; Pettiway,
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1982; Pratt, 2001; Sampson & Groves, 1989).
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8 The measures of motivated offenders include variables of the neighbourhood’s
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10 characteristics in which the offenders (Malczewski & Poetz, 2005: 519) live are: a higher
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rate of unemployment (Hartnagel, 2004; Kohfeld & Sprague, 1988; Neustrom & Norton,
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15 1995; Rountree & Land, 2000); a higher proportion of low-income households (Bursik &
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17 Grasmick, 1993; Kennedy & Forde, 1990; Pratt, 2001); lower levels of education (Ehrlich,
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19 1975; Pratt 2001), and single-parent families (Bottoms & Wiles, 1988; Bowers &
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22 Hirschfield, 1999).
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24 The measures of social control in an area include residential stability, racial

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26 heterogeneity, and the proportion of households headed by women, the density of
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employment and the levels of family dysfunctionality (Wilcox, Land & Hunt, 2003). The
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31 residential stability variable can be operationalized as the percentage of the population with
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33 less than five years of residence in the area. The theory of routine activity suggests that in
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neighborhoods with a greater proportion of the population with less than five years of
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residence, the probability of crimes against people and property is increased.
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41 Methods and Data.
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43 Given the emphasis of the routine activity theory in the space this article includes the
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46 ESDA y spatial regression as research methods.
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48 Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is technique that is used to detect spatial
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50 patterns of observations statistically by using Moran’s I and local indicators of spatial
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analysis (LISA) tests (Xum and William, 2013). To identify the effect of motor vehicle
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55 thefts on the environment factors we estimate an OLS model.
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3 To improve the prediction power of crime maps and analysis, we will construct an
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OLS regression model. The model will be specified of the following form:
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ln yi   0    kXik  i were the dependent variable ln yi is the natural log of motor
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vehicle theft rate per 100 inhabitants and  0 y k (k=1,2…, n-1) are the independent
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13 variables Xik . The i ’s are the error terms of residuals with mean zero and constant
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15 variance.
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18 The OLS method is based on a set of assumptions including normality,
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20 homogeneity of variance and independence of residuals. Spatial autocorrelation (or spatial
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22 dependency) and spatial no stationarity (spatial heterogeneity) are two properties of spatial
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25 data that may undermine the assumptions of traditional regression models (Bailey &
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27 Gatrell, 1995).
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29 If the spatial dependency’s test of the OLS model shows that Moran’s I and
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Lagrange Multipliers 𝐿𝑀𝜆, 𝐿𝑀𝜌 are statically significant means that the model has spatial
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34 autocorrelation and will be necessary to choose between spatial lag and spatial error model
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36 through the following specification:
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ln 𝑦𝑖 = 𝜌 ∗ 𝑤 ∗ 𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑖 + 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ∗ 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑎𝑝 + 𝛽2 ∗ 𝑝ℎℎ𝑤 + 𝛽3 ∗ 𝑝𝑝𝑤𝑙5𝑜𝑟 + … + 𝜀𝑖
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41 Were ln yi represents the natural log of motor vehicle thefts rate per 100 inhabitants
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43 in census tract, 𝛽1 is the percentage of the economically active population that is
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46 unemployed, 𝛽2 is the percentage of households headed by women, 𝛽3 is the percentage of
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48 the population with less than 5 years of residence in the state, 𝛽4 is the gross population
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density, 𝛽5 is the percentage of the population without social security, 𝛽6 is the gross
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53 employment density of commerce and service, 𝛽7 is the percentage of the population born
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55 in another state.
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3 The choice of the dependent and independent variables was based on the routine
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activity theory.
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8 Dependent variable
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10 The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of the motor vehicle theft rate per 100
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inhabitants (LnMVTP100). In Mexico, motor vehicle theft is defined as stealing or
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15 attempted theft of a motor vehicle. The mean of motor vehicle thefts was 13 with a range of
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17 0-2400 per tract. Table 1 shows the statistics of each of the dependent and independent
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19 variables.
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23 Table 1. Descriptive statistics of the variables of the motor vehicle theft model in Ciudad
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24 Juárez, Chihuahua, at the census tract level (n = 565).

25 Variable Mean Min Max S.D.
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The motor vehicle theft rate per 100 inhabitants 13 0 2400 124.31
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(LnMVTP100)
29 Percentage of the unemployed economically active 6.88 0.9 18.79 2.86
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30 population (PUEAP).
31 Percentage of households headed by women 25.66 9.22 46.22 6.32
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33 Percentage of the population without social security 26.43 10.74 53.48 7.63
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(PPWSS).
36 Gross population density (GPD). 55.20 0.05 187.4 35.17
37 Gross employment density of commerce and 4.67 0.04 106.0 8.24
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39 Percentage of the population born in another state 0.27 0.07 0.99 0.11
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Percentage of the population with less than 5 years 0.78 0.316 0.99 0.12
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43 of residence in the state (PPWL5OR)
44 Source: Own elaboration with the Population and Housing Census (Inegi, 2010) and the
45 Citizen Observatory of Safety, Justice and Prevention (COSJP).
46 S.D. Standard deviation.
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50 Independent variables
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52 The independent variables include two variables related to the suitable target, such as gross
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54 population density (GPD) and gross employment density of commerce and services
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3 (GEDCS). Four variables are linked to the motivated offender: the percentage of the
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economically active population that is unemployed (PUEAP), the percentage of the
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8 population without social security (PPWSS), the percentage of the population born in
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10 another state (PPBAS), and the percentage of the population with less than 5 years of
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residence in the state (PPWL5OR). One variable was related to the lack of social control or
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15 capable guardians as the percentage of households headed by women (PHHW).
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17 To perform the multicollinearity test, a correlation matrix between the dependent
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19 and independent variables was constructed to identify possible multicollinearity problems
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22 in the regression model (See Table 2). The results indicate that the 7 variables have a
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24 degree of correlation below the risk level 0.7, with motor vehicle theft per 100 inhabitants
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26 (Cardozo et al., 2012), so none of them will be eliminated from the final model.
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Table 2. Pearson correlation matrix of the independent and dependent variables.
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30 Variable Log of motor vehicle theft

31 rate per 100 inhabitants
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33 Percentage of the unemployed economically active -0.488**

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36 Percentage of households headed by women (PHHHW). -0.446**
37 Percentage of the population without social security -0.171**
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39 Gross population density (GPD). -0.529**
40 Gross employment density of commerce and services 0.115**
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(GEDCS).
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43 Percentage of the population born in another state -0.305**
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45 Percentage of the population with less than 5 years of -0.604**
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47 Source: Own elaboration with the Population and Housing Census (Inegi, 2010) and the
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Citizen Observatory of Safety, Justice and Prevention (COSJP).
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53 Data
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3 The study draws on two primary data sources. The criminal warrants (CW) of motor
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vehicle thefts were collected, geocoded and aggregated at the census-tract-level utilizing
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8 ArcMap geographic information. The data were provided by Citizen Observatory of Safety,
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10 Justice and Prevention (COSJP). The socioeconomic variables were extracted from the
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Population and Housing Census (Inegi, 2005 and 2010) at census tract level. The spatial
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15 link between the census tracts and motor vehicle thefts data was established with the use of
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17 Arc Map Geographic Information Systems Software. This software allowed the matching
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19 of Inegi census tracts with COSJP information. The number of geographic units (census
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22 tracts) was 565. For the calculation of the Moran’s I, LISA and to run the spatial regression
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24 we will use the software GeoDa.

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26 Results
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Mapping motor vehicle thefts crimes.
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31 Ciudad Juarez since the 1990s due to the globalization of illicit economies and its role as
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33 border city, has experienced an increase in crimes, such as homicides, motor vehicle thefts,
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burglary, extortion, etc. (Fuentes & Peña, 2017). In 2007 rise the number of motor vehicle
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thefts reached the peak of 9,109 in 2011 and since then decreased reaching 1,489 in 2016.
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40 The average of criminal warrants (CW) of auto thefts during the 2011-2016 period was
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42 3,690. Table 3 shows the rate of motor vehicle theft reached a rate of 680 per 100,000
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45 inhabitants in 2011 and since then declined to 108 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016 (See
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47 Table 3). The use of violence to steal a car (carjacking) also increased since 2007 reaching
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49 a rate of 336 vehicles per 100,000 inhabitants and decreased since 2012.
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Table 3. Rate of motor vehicle thefts and carjacking per 100,000 inhabitants, committed in
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55 vehicle Motor vehicle Carjacking
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3 2011 1,338,353 9,109 680 4,495 336
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2012 1,344,604 5,287 393 1,836 136
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6 2013 1,350,884 3,601 266 602 44
7 2014 1,357,194 2,469 182 290 21
8 2015 1,363,533 1,796 131 231 17
9 2016 1,369,902 1,489 108 278 20
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2017 1,376,300 2,083 151 329 24
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13 Source: Executive Secretariat of the System of Public Security (Segob, 2017).
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Figure 1 shows the spatial distribution of motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juarez. The
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18 results show very marked motor vehicle theft concentrations in the north (more than 20
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20 auto theft), in areas with commerce and services land uses were bars, restaurants, night
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clubs, banks, office are located. Similarly, there is another cluster in the geographic centre
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27 the northeast part of the city close to the port of entry that connects to El Paso, Texas,
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29 where there are commerce and service activities for tourist (See Figure 1). In contrast, most
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32 of the low-income residential areas experienced few auto thefts (the mean menus 0.5 times
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34 the standard deviation).
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36 It is relevant to note that only 21 census tracts had between 15 and 20 motor vehicle
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thefts (the mean plus 2.5 times the standard deviation), and they represent more than 20%
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41 of the total motor vehicle thefts. On the other hand, census tracts where vehicle thefts are
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43 concentrated represent 6% of the surface of the entire city. The motor vehicle thefts are
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45 concentrated in the downtown area and on the main avenues that circulate the Central Park
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48 area.
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50 Figure 1. Spatial distribution of motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua (2014).
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Also, there were 20 census tracts that had more than 20 vehicle thefts (the mean
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43 plus 1.5 times the standard deviation), but they represent more than 16.5% of the total
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45 vehicle thefts. The census tracts where motor vehicle thefts are concentrated represent 4.8%
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47 of the city-wide surface. The vehicle thefts are concentrated on the main avenues of the
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50 PRONAF area where there are localized subcenters of commerce and services, as well as
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52 the commercial areas of the geographical centre of the city where two important avenues
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3 Questions arise from the previous distribution as to whether there are clusters and a
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clear spatial pattern. To study these spatial patterns, it is necessary to use advance spatial
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8 analysis techniques to evaluate the motor vehicle theft. To find answers to the above
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10 questions, two methods will be used; exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial
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regression.
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15 Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA).
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17 Given the fact that the routine Activity theory put emphasis in the role of the place for
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19 commit a crime, recently incorporated exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial
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22 econometric techniques in its analysis (Grubesic & Mack, 2008; Ye & Wu, 2011). One way
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24 to explore autocorrelation in space is by means of a Moran’s I scatterplot. Figure 2 shows a

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26 Moran’s I value for the variable motor vehicle thefts of 0.2569 with a level of significance
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of P <0.05. This result confirms the presence of positive spatial autocorrelation in the
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31 distribution of motor vehicle thefts. That is, there is a significant agglomeration of motor
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33 vehicle thefts in some areas of the city.

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Figure 2. Spatial
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37 autocorrelation
between motor vehicle
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39 thefts in Ciudad Juárez,
40 Chihuahua (2014).
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(COSJP, 2014).
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15 Local indicators of spatial association (LISA).
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17 The use of ESDA tools improved the identification of hotspots of motor vehicle thefts.
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19 LISA is an indicator that considers the value registered by neighbouring values and
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22 compares them by means of hypothesis tests to determine their degree of clustering
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24 (Anselin, 1995). These types of indicators are represented in maps (LISA) that offer a way
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26 to identify local hotspots and observe non-stationarity through space (Logley & Tobon,
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2004). The results are all significant at the 5 percent level (with 9,999 permutations) and
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31 are consistent with those obtained earlier. Figure 3 shows three hotspots of motor vehicle
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33 theft (high-high); 1). Downtown area, 2) the corridor that connects the downtown with the
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commercial and services areas (PRONAF) in the northeast of the city and 3) a very small
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one is in the southwest of the city. In contrast, the areas with census tracts with low levels
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40 of motor vehicle thefts (low-low) are in the northwest and southwest of the city in areas
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42 where low-income population, unemployed and recent migrants live. Consequently, local
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45 indicators can help police to identify areas of high or low concentrations of motor vehicle
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47 thefts, as well as the presence of dissimilar areas.
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49 Figure 3. Indicators of spatial association for motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juárez,
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Chihuahua (2014).
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Source: Own elaboration based on Citizen Observatory of Safety, Justice and Prevention
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46 Figure 4 shows the map of statistical significance (LISA) where the tones in green
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48 show the clusters of motor vehicle thefts that are statistically significant. It confirms that
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51 the census tracts with a high density of motor vehicle thefts (dark green; highly significant
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53 statistically) are located downtown and the commerce and service corridor that connect the
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55 downtown with the PRONAF area (p <0.001). On the other hand, in some areas of the
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3 northwest and southeast of the city, where low-income populations live (p <0.001), there
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are statistically significant clusters where there is a low density of motor vehicle thefts.
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8 Figure 4. Map of statistical significance (LISA).
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48 (COSJP, 2014).
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51 Spatial regression model.
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54 In the previous exploratory analysis, the Moran’s I value of the variable motor vehicle
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56 thefts was positive and highly significant, which is indicative of the presence of spatial
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59
1
2
3 autocorrelation. However, “the Moran’s I provides only a limited view of this phenomenon,
4
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since the clusters of similar values (low-low, high-high) could reflect only the geographical
7
8 distribution of the explanatory variables” (Sánchez-Peña, 2012: 162). To examine the
9
10 spatial dependence after controlling for other relevant characteristics, a multivariate linear
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12
regression model was constructed.
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15 To further identify the relationship between motor vehicle theft and
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17 sociodemographic variables related with suitable target, motivated offender and absence of
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19 capable guardians, a multiple linear regression model estimated with ordinary least squares
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22 (OLS) was run. It was decided that if the test of the model showed the presence of spatial
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24 dependence, a new model would be estimated using a spatial error model or spatial lag
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26 model, estimated with maximum likelihood.
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The adjustment of model 1 estimated by the OLS offers a R² of 0.5901 and an
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31 adjusted R² of 0.5853. The high value of the statistic F (124.64) and its associated low p-
32
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33 value (0.000) denote the high statistical significance of the model. Table 4 shows the results
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35
of model 1, which demonstrate that the coefficients of the proxy variables of motivated
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37
offender such as gross population density, the percentage of the economically active
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40 population that is unemployed, the percentage of the population without social security, the
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42 percentage of the population born in another state, the percentage of the population with 5
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45 years of residence are negative. Besides, the proxy variable of social control such as the
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47 percentage of households headed by women, significantly reduce opportunities for motor
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49 vehicle theft. In contrast, the proxy variable of suitable targets such as the use of
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commercial and service land has a positive relationship with auto vehicle theft.
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54 The value of beta allows us to identify that land use of commerce and services
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56 where most of the bars and nights clubs are located has a greater explanation for the
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1
2
3 presence of motor vehicle thefts. In contrast, the variables that have a lesser influence in
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reducing the probability of motor vehicle thefts are socioeconomic variables, such as
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8 population density, percentage of population born in another state, percentage of the
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10 population with less than 5 years of residence in the city, and percentage of households
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with a female head. The signs of the coefficients with statistical significance are also those
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15 expected according to theory.
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17 As we mentioned before the theory of routine Activity predicts that for there to be a
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19 crime, three factors must be combined: “an adequate target, motivated offenders and
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22 absence of capable guardians” (Cohen and Felson, 1979:589). From the above variables,
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24 use of commerce and services land use can be classified as an adequate target. The
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26 percentage of the unemployed economically active population, percentage of households
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headed by women and percentage of population without social security rights can be
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31 classified as spaces of motivated offenders. The gross population density and percentage of
32
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33 population born in another state are considered as capable guardians.

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Table 4. Local model of the motor vehicle theft variable for Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua
36
37 (2014).
Independent Variables Model 1 (OLS) Model 2 (SEM)
On
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39 (Constant) 8.20** 8.29**
40 GPD -0.011** -0.12**
41 PUEAP -9.94** -12.25**
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43 PPWSS -1.24* 0.693 (N.S)
44 PPBAS -3.56** -3.62**
45 PPWL5CR -5.21** -4.96**
46 PHHW -5.94** -5.25**
47 GEDCS 0.02** 0.02**
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49
Lambda 0.44**
50 N 411 411
R:2 0.5901 0.6496
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52 2
R adjusted: 0.5853
53 Log-Likelihood 990.10 -955.25
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55
AIC 1996.21 1926.51
56 SC 2031.5
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1
2
3 Spatial Dependence Test
4
5
Moran’s I (error) 0.2345**
6 LM Error 78.55**
7 Robust LM Error 48.45**
8 LM Lag 31.47**
9 Robust LM Lag 1.38
10
Significance level * p< 0.05; ** p<0.001. (N.S) Not significant.
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12 Source: Own elaboration with data from the Citizen Observatory of Safety, Justice and
13 Prevention (2014) and The Population and Housing Census (Inegi, 2010).
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16 The coefficient of the commerce and services land use variable has a positive and
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statistically significant effect on motor vehicle thefts. This is consistent with the prediction
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21 of the theory of routine activity that put emphasis on suitable targets (Argun & Dağlar,
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23 2016). In the city, areas with commerce and services land uses attract middle and high
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income consumers from the rest, for that reason became adequate places for motivated
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28 offenders. The result is also consistent with several studies conducted in the United States,
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30 where a positive and significant coefficient was found between the logarithm of the rate of
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32 violent crimes and multiple land uses, including commercial and service use (Cahill &
iew
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35 Mulligan, 2007; Stucky & Ottensmann, 2009; Lockwood, 2007). Likewise, in a study
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37 conducted in Mexico City, a positive relationship was also found between commerce and
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39 services land use and motor vehicle theft (Sánchez & Fuentes, 2016).
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In contrast, the rest of the sociodemographic variables have a negative relationship
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44 with motor vehicle thefts. The gross population density, which is a proxy variable for
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46 residential land use, has a negative effect on motor vehicle thefts. This result is also
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48
consistent with the theory of routine Activity, which indicates that areas with lower
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51 population density have a lower number of guardians. In the United States and Mexico,
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53 similar results were reported by some authors (Andersen 2006a and 2006b; Cahill &
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55 Mulligan 2007; Sánchez & Fuentes, 2016).
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1
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3 The percentage of economic active population unemployed has a negative
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coefficient with motor vehicle theft, which means that in areas of the city with higher rates
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8 of unemployed population fewer cars are stolen. The theory of routine Activity predicts that
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10 the areas where greater numbers of unemployed people live are more likely to have
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12
motivated criminals. In this case, motivated criminals move to areas where there are
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15 adequate objectives. In some studies, in the United States and Europe, this relationship has
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17 been proven (Hartnagel, 2004; Kohfeld & Sprague, 1988; Neustrom & Norton, 1995;
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19 Rountree & Land, 2000).
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22 The percentage of the population with less than five years of residence in the area is
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24 a proxy variable for residential stability. In this case, the spatial relationship between the
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26 percentage of the population with less than five years living in the state and theft of motor
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vehicles is negative. That is, areas with high percentages of new residents of the city have a
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31 low level of motor vehicle theft because they have fewer cars. The theory of routine activity
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33 suggests that neighbourhoods with a greater percentage of the population with less than five
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years of residence increase the probability of crimes against people and property.
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In general, motor vehicle thefts do not show a positive spatial relationship with
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40 indicators linked to social disadvantages such as the percentage of households headed by
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42 women, or the percentage of the population without social security. As a result, the
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45 delinquents move to other areas of the city where people with higher income and brand-
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47 new vehicles live or visit such as the commercial and service areas.
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49 Because the regression model only explains 59% of the variance of the risks related
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to motor vehicle theft in Ciudad Juárez. Thus, a part of the unexplained variance can be
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54 associated with the assumptions of spatial stationing that multiple regression models make.
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3 The problem of the lack of specification of the relationships described by the
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multiple regression models estimated with ordinary least square can be detected through the
7
8 use of the Moran’s I statistic (Bailey & Gatrell, 1995; Fotheringham, Charlton & Brunsdon,
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10 2002; Haining, 2003). “This statistic can be used to verify that the residuals of the global
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12
model are randomly distributed” (Fuentes y Hernández, 2014; 382).
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15 Diagnostic tests of the multiple regression model confirm the presence of spatial
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17 autocorrelation (Moran’s I 0.2345, p = 0.001), which was found in the error term and
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19 suggest the necessity to specify a spatial error model (SEM).
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22 The relationship between the rate of motor vehicle theft per 100,000 residents and
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24 the independent variables was also estimated using a spatial error regression model (SEM).
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26 Table 4 presents the summary and comparison of the results obtained in both the global and
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the local model. The results of the coefficient of determination (R²) suggest that the SEM
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31 performs better than the multiple linear regression model estimated using the OLS does
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33 (0.59 vs. 0.64, respectively), which reveals an improvement in the estimate in relation to
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the global model by increasing 5% of its explanatory power. Likewise, the value of the AIC
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decreased from 1996 in OLS to 1926 in the estimated model with maximum likelihood.
On
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40 It is important to note that these values vary in space due to the incidence of the
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42 spatial multipliers matrix, and the proportion of the spatial autocorrelation coefficient ρ is
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45 0.44. This result allows the rejection of the null hypothesis, verifying that the spatial
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47 configuration of the concentration of motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juárez does not occur
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49 in a random manner, and revealing the interdependence and feedback between the
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neighbourhoods, therefore ratifying neighbourhood effects.
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54 Summary and discussion.
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3 The study showed that certain suitable targets such as commerce and services areas have
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higher risk for getting involved in motor vehicle thefts. It was clear from the ESDA
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8 analysis that hotspots of motor vehicle thefts are in the commerce and services areas mainly
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10 downtown and the commercial and services corridors between downtown and the northeast
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of the city are areas in which the clusters of census tracts with motor vehicle thefts are
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15 statistically significant as the routine Activity predict. “This suggests that unattended
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17 vehicle should create hot spots of vehicle crime” (Argun & & Dağlar, 2016). In contrast,
18
19 census tracts where there are low socioeconomic conditions, there is a lower number of
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22 motor vehicle thefts, which means that motivated criminals move to other areas of the city
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24 to carry out their criminal activities.

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26 The commercial and services sections of the downtown and northeast of the city
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have speciﬁc environment that contribute to increase the risk for motor vehicle thefts such
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31 as the presence of restaurants, bars, nightclubs were there are absence of capable guardians
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33 as a result each area should implement policies and programs for prevention and control.
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35
Space plays a key role in the understanding of these phenomena; that is, the
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concentration of motor vehicle thefts in an area has concentrating effects on neighbouring
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40 areas, generating differentiated spaces in the city. This effect is shown by the spatial
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42 autocorrelation coefficient, ρ.
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45 The results show that motor vehicle theft has a pre-deductible geographical logic.
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47 This finding allows those in charge of the Municipal Public Safety Secretariat to develop
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49 preventive strategies and increase the number of agents in the areas. This approach would
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allow crimes to be analysed in a comprehensive manner and for coordinated strategies and
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54 actions to prevent crime to be proposed and executed.
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1
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3 From a methodological point of view, the use of spatial analysis tools, such as
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exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) complemented with spatial error model (SEM)
7
8 estimated with maximum likelihood, is a clear advantage for the identification of cluster
9
10 areas of motor vehicle theft. The use of spatial econometric techniques made it possible to
11
12
demonstrate the existence of clusters of motor vehicle thefts. Thus, in the downtown area,
13
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15 the northeast and the centre-west of the city are areas in which the clusters of census tracts
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17 with motor vehicle thefts are statistically significant.
18
19 Acknowledgement
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22 We wish to thank the Citizen Observatory of Safety, Justice and Prevention of Ciudad
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24 Juarez for providing the dataset for the analysis.

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37 Spatial distribution of motor vehicle thefts in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua (2014)
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36 Figure 2. Spatial autocorrelation between motor vehicle thefts in CJ
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1
2 Variable Mean Min Max
3 The motor vehicle theft rate per 100 inhabitants
4 13 0 2400
(LnMVTP100)
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6 Percentage of the unemployed economically active
6.88 0.9 18.79
8 Percentage of households headed by women (PHHW). 25.66 9.22 46.22
9
10 Percentage of the population without social security
26.43 10.74 53.48
11 (PPWSS).
12 Gross population density (GPD). 55.2 0.05 187.4
13
Gross employment density of commerce and services
14 4.67 0.04 106
15 (GEDCS).
16 Percentage of the population born in another state
17 0.27 0.07 0.99
(PPBAS).
18
Fo
19 Percentage of the population with less than 5 years of

0.78 0.316 0.99
20 residence in the state (PPWL5OR)
21
rP
22
23
24
ee
25
26
27
28
rR
29
30
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1
2 S.D.
3
4 124.31
5
6 2.86
7
8 6.32
9
10 7.63
11
12 35.17
13
14 8.24
15
16
17 0.11
18
Fo
19 0.12
20
21
rP
22
23
24
ee
25
26
27
28
rR
29
30
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
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60

1
2
3
Variable
4
Percentage of the unemployed economically active
5
7 Percentage of households headed by women
8 (PHHHW).
9
10 Percentage of the population without social security
11 (PPWSS).
12 Gross population density (GPD).
13
Gross employment density of commerce and services
14
15 (GEDCS).
16 Percentage of the population born in another state
17 (PPBAS).
18
Fo
19
Percentage of the population with less than 5 years of
20 residence (PPWL5OR).
21
rP
22
23
24
ee
25
26
27
28
rR
29
30
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1
2 Log of motor vehicle theft rate per 100 inhabitants
3 (LnMVTP100).
4
5 -0.488**
6
7
8 -0.446**
9
10 -0.171**
11
12 -0.529**
13
14 0.115**
15
16
17 -0.305**
18
Fo
19 -0.604**
20
21
rP
22
23
24
ee
25
26
27
28
rR
29
30
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
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1
2
3
4 Year Population Motor vehicle thefts Motor vehicle Carjacking
5
6
7 2011 1,338,353 9,109 680 4,495
8 2012 1,344,604 5,287 393 1,836
9 2013 1,350,884 3,601 266 602
10
11
2014 1,357,194 2,469 182 290
12 2015 1,363,533 1,796 131 231
13 2016 1,369,902 1,489 108 278
14 2017 1,376,300 2,083 151 329
15
16
17
18
Fo
19
20
21
rP
22
23
24
ee
25
26
27
28
rR
29
30
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1
2
3 Carjacking
4 rate
5
6
7 336
8 136
9 44
10
11
21
12 17
13 20
14 24
15
16
17
18
Fo
19
20
21
rP
22
23
24
ee
25
26
27
28
rR
29
30
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1
2 Independent Variables Model 1 (OLS) Model 2 (SEM)
3 (Constant) 8.20** 8.29**
4
5
GPD -0.011** -0.12**
6 PUEAP -9.94** -12.25**
7 PPWSS -1.24* 0.693 (N.S)
8
PPBAS -3.56** -3.62**
9
10 PPWL5CR -5.21** -4.96**
11 PHHW -5.94** -5.25**
12 GEDCS 0.02** 0.02**
13
14 Lambda 0.44**
15 N 411 411
16 R2: 0.5901 0.6496
17
18 R2 adjusted: 0.5853
Fo
19 Log-Likelihood 990.1 -955.25

20
21 AIC 1996.21 1926.51
rP
22 SC 2031.5
23 Spatial Dependence Test
24
Moran’s I (error) 0.2345**
ee
25
26 LM Error 78.55**
27 Robust LM Error 48.45**
28
rR
LM Lag 31.47**
29
30 Robust LM Lag 1.38
31
ev
32
33
34
iew
35
36
37
38
39
40
On
41
42
43
44
ly
45
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International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice

Journal: International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice

Manuscript Type: Original Article

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

oriented to the situational prevention of the crime.

Keywords: Motor vehicle theft; spatial pattern; Ciudad Juárez.

24 The measures of social control in an area include residential stability, racial

24 Juárez, Chihuahua, at the census tract level (n = 565).

30 Variable Log of motor vehicle theft

33 Percentage of the unemployed economically active -0.488**

24 we will use the software GeoDa.

24 to explore autocorrelation in space is by means of a Moran’s I scatterplot. Figure 2 shows a

33 vehicle thefts in some areas of the city.

33 population born in another state are considered as capable guardians.

24 to carry out their criminal activities.

24 Juarez for providing the dataset for the analysis.

33 Andresen, M (2006b). A Spatial Analysis of Crime in Vancouver, British Columbia: A

42 crime rates. Social Science Research, 41, 1598-1614.

33 Approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 588–608.

42 Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, Ch., Charlton, M. (2002). Geographically weighted

30 Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Geografía. (2009). Censos Económicos, [Economic

24 contexto sociodemográfico en tres delegaciones centrales de la Ciudad de México 2010,

42 series de tiempo. Gestión y Política Pública, 1(XX), 97-139.

38 138x127mm (300 x 300 DPI)

42 150x159mm (300 x 300 DPI)

19 Percentage of the population with less than 5 years of

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

19 Log-Likelihood 990.1 -955.25

URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rcac Email: ijournal@msu.edu

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