Estimating Population Proportion, Length of The point estimate of the proportion of 30 BS

Confidence Interval & Sample Size Mechanical Engineering graduates is 0.0857 or 8.57%.
The standard deviation is 0.015.
Definition:

Proportion represent a part of a whole, like probability, it

can be expressed in percent, decimal, or fraction.

The following variables will be used in the lesson: EXAMPLE 3:

n = number of observations in a simple random sample Tell if the sample used in proportion case is
or sample size small or large.
^p = sample proportion (read as “p hat”) 1. ^p=0.71 , σ p =0.099
Number of desired outcomes ^p ± 3 σ p = ( ^p−3 σ p , ^
p +3 σ p )
=
Number of sample elements = (0.71 – 3(0.099), 0.71 + 3(0.099))
p = population proportion = (0.413, 1.007)
q^ = 1 - ^p = estimates proportion not ^p
Since the interval (0.413, 1.007) includes 1,
EXAMPLE 1: therefore the proportion comes from a small sample
size.
In a job satisfaction survey in a certain mall, 700
employees were asked if they were satisfied with their 2. ^p=0.26 , σ p =0.064
jobs. There were 518 responded with a YES. What ^p ± 3 σ p = ( ^p−3 σ p , ^p +3 σ p )
proportion is this? What proportion responded with a
= (0.26 – 3(0.064), 0.26 + 3(0.064))
NO?
= (0.068, 0.452)
x= 518 n = 700

X 518 Since the interval (0.068, 0.452) does not

^p= = =0.74∨74 include 0 or 1, therefore the proportion comes from a
n 700 large sample size.
q^ =1− ^p =1−0.74=0.26∨26
Definition:
The proportion of YES responses is 0.74 and the
NO responses is 0.26. These mean that 74% of the The confidence interval of the sample proportion
respondents are satisfied with their job while 26% are is
not.

Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution of

1.
^p .
2 √
^p−z α p q < p < ^p + z α
^^
n 2 √ ^p q^
n
=
√
^p ± z α p q
2
^^
n

2. The mean of the sampling distribution of ^p is

p; that is ^p is the unbiased estimator of p.
3. The standard deviation of the sampling
( √
¿ ^p −z α
2
^p q^
n √ )
, ^p + z α
2
^p q^
n
.

distribution of
√
^p is σ p = pq .
n
The standard error of the estimate is
^p q^
n
.
√
4. For large samples, the sampling distribution of
^p is approximately normal. A sample size is
considered large if the interval ^p ± 3 σ p does
The margin of error E of the estimate is z α
2
^p q^
n
.
√
not include 0 (like p = 0.001) or 1 (like p = 0.99). EXAMPLE 4:

Thus, the point estimate of the population proportion A survey of 1200 citizens showed that 715 trust
is 74%. This means that if we were to draw random the President. Compute a 95% confidence interval for
samples of 700 people over and over again, each time the proportion of all citizens who trust the president.
calculating a ^p , like the sampling distribution of
means, the mean proportion would be 74%.
X = 715 n = 1200
zα = 1.960
2
EXAMPLE 2:
X 715
What is the point estimate and the standard ^p= = =0.5958∨59.58
deviation of the proportion of 30 BS Mechanical n 1200
Engineering (ME) graduates from the batch with 350 q^ =1− ^p =1−0.5958=0.4042∨40.42
graduates?
X = 30 n = 350
X 30
^p= =
n 350
=0.0857∨8.57 ( √ √ )
^p−z α
2
^p q^
n
, ^p + z α
2
^p q^
n
=

q^ =1− ^p =1−0.0857=0.9143∨91.43

σ p=
√ √
pq
n
=
(0.0857)(0.9143)
350
≈ 0.015
( √
0.5958−1.960
= (0.5680, 0.6236)
( 0.5958 ) ( 0.4042 )
1200
, 0.5958+1.960
(0.595
√
1
 With 95% confidence, the interval from 56.80% within an error of 0.025 of its true value. Using 99%
to 62.36% contains the true percentage of all citizens confidence level, find the sample size n that he
who trust the President. needs.

Definition: L = 12.4 U = 12.8

E = 0.025
zα = 2.576
Length of confidence interval 2

If the confidence interval is given, then the length of an According to the Range Rule of Thumb, the Range, R, is
interval can be determined using about 4 times the Standard Deviation, σ , therefore
R=4 σ
Length=U−L=Upper Limit−Lower Limit .
R U −L 12.8−12.4 0.4
If the confidence interval is not given, then the length of σ  =   = = = =0.1
an interval can be determined by 4 4 4 4
2
σ z α ⋅σ
Length = 2 z α
2
( )
√n Solve for n=
2
( )
2
E
EXAMPLE 5: z α ⋅σ
A marketing officer is 99% confident that their usual
female customers have a mean height of 166 cm to 174
n= ( )[ 2
E
=
(2.576)( 0.1)
0.025
2

]
=106.172416 ≈ 107

cm. How long is the interval?

U = 174 cm L = 166 cm

Length=U−L=174 cm−166 cm SAMPLE SIZE WHEN ESTIMATING A POPULATION

¿ 8 cm PROPORTION

The confidence interval has a length of 8 cm. In computing the sample size for estimating a population
proportion, there are two situations to bear in mind:
EXAMPLE 6:
1. If some approximation of ^p is known, that value
A researcher wants to estimate the number of hours that may be used in the formula.
5-year old children spend watching television. A sample
of 50 five-year old children was observed to have a 2. If no approximation is known, use ^p = 0.5. This
mean viewing time of 3 hours. The population is value will result in a sample size large enough to
normally distributed with a population standard deviation guarantee prediction, given the confidence interval and
of 0.5 hours at 95% confidence interval of the population the error of estimate. The reason is that when ^p
mean, how long is the confidence interval?
and q ^ are 0.5 each, this will give the maximum
Confidence Interval is not given, therefore we use: product of proportions.
σ
Length = 2zα
2
( )
√n
EXAMPLE 8:

Mary wants to know, with 95% confidence, the

n = 50 x́ = 3 hours, proportion of households who like to use detergent X. A
previous survey showed that 42% like to use detergent
σ = 0.5 hours z = 1.960
X. Mary likes to be accurate within 2% of the true
proportion. What sample size does Mary need?
Length = 2zα
2
( √σn ) = 2(1.960)
( √0.550 ) z = 1.960, ^p = 0.42, E = 0.02
= 0.2772 or 0.28 hours
2
zα
Definition:

Sample Size Solving

Solve for n= ^p q^ ()E
2

q^ = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58
zα 2
()
From the formula of margin of error 2
1.960
( )
2
z α ⋅σ
For population: n= ( )2
E
2
n= ^p q^ 2 =( 0.42 ) ( 0.58 )
E
¿ 2,339.5344 ≈ 2340
0.02

zα
For population proportion: n= ^p q^ ()
E
2
PROBLEM SET:

1. In a certain food stall, 278 out of 500 randomly

EXAMPLE 7:
Jung Joon-hyung wants to replicate a study where the
lowest observed value is 12.4 while the highest is 12.8.
He wants to estimate the population mean μ to
selected consumers indicate their preference for
a new kind of food combination. Use a 99%
confidence interval to estimate the true
proportion who like the new food combination.
Find the point estimate and the confidence
interval.
2. For a random sample of 50 measurements on
the breaking strength of cotton threads, the
mean breaking strength was found to be 210
grams and the standard deviation of 18 grams.
What is the length of the confidence interval for
the true mean breaking strength of cotton
threads if the confidence coefficient is 0.90?

3. In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the

mean weight μ , in kilograms, of all six-year
old children to be included in a feeding program.
She wants to be 99% confident that the estimate
of μ is accurate to within 0.06 kg. Suppose
from a previous study, the standard deviation of
the weights of the target population was 0.5 kg,
what should the sample size be?