Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 6,861 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 5.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 15.9
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 109,182

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 62.9% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 52.6% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 50.0% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 2.7 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 21.8%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 13.0
Latest P/E (x) 21.9
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 72 72 72 72 80 80 80 80 80 80
Reserves 2,518 2,553 3,652 5,027 7,724 9,232 10,881 13,305 15,724 20,615
Borrowings 2,111 311 6,693 10,201 12,991 19,507 26,312 36,062 48,282 63,619
Other Liabilities 17,850 36,448 43,608 44,162 44,585 45,576 50,968 54,516 64,537 74,812
Total 22,552 39,384 54,026 59,462 65,379 74,394 88,241 103,963 128,623 159,126

Net Block 14,314 28,782 580 818 1,208 1,262 1,261 1,274 1,645 1,760
Capital Work in Progress 119 55 14 18 2 1 3 11 4 25
Investments 6,595 8,940 43,127 43,506 43,251 45,314 51,367 53,698 62,658 68,292
Other Assets 1,523 1,608 10,304 15,121 20,918 27,816 35,611 48,981 64,316 89,049
Total 22,552 39,384 54,026 59,462 65,379 74,394 88,241 103,963 128,623 159,126

Working Capital -16,327 -34,840 -33,304 -29,041 -23,667 -17,760 -15,357 -5,535 -221 14,237
Debtors 3 1 178 271 353 370 541 681 1,253 1,200
Inventory - - - - - - - - - -
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 3 0 27 36 16 22 17 12 19 14
Inventory Turnover - - - - - - - - - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.0 0.0 4.2 3.3 6.7 4.8 9.0 16.1 14.9 17.4
Debt/Equity 0.8 0.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1
Return on Equity 2% 26% 39% 37% 28% 24% 22% 21% 22% 21%
Return on Capital Employed 3% 27% 19% 19% 19% 15% 15% 14% 13% 13%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 378 982 2,415 2,715 8,055 6,023 11,335 20,533 24,507 30,599 38,682
% Growth YOY 160% 146% 12% 197% -25% 88% 81% 19% 25%
Expenses 215 171 615 920 4,124 1,531 5,819 13,795 15,794 19,634 25,038
Material Cost (% of Sales) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 7% 5% 7% 10% 4% 7% 5% 4% 4% 5% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 1% 0% 7% 11% 4% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Operating Profit 163 811 1,800 1,794 3,931 4,491 5,516 6,739 8,713 10,965 13,644
Operating Profit Margin 43% 83% 75% 66% 49% 75% 49% 33% 36% 36% 35%
Other Income 7 3 168 1,190 2 3 3 0 0 -0 3
Other Income as % of Sales 1.9% 0.3% 7.0% 43.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Depreciation 30 22 19 14 22 31 38 58 73 103 203
Interest 0 - 301 744 1,204 1,562 2,230 2,877 3,716 4,551 5,873
Interest Coverage(Times) 7,015 #DIV/0! 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Profit before tax (PBT) 140 792 1,649 2,226 2,708 2,902 3,251 3,804 4,925 6,310 7,571
% Growth YOY 465% 108% 35% 22% 7% 12% 17% 29% 28%
PBT Margin 37% 81% 68% 82% 34% 48% 29% 19% 20% 21% 20%
Tax 77 99 178 336 494 710 842 1,030 1,475 1,970 2,582
Net profit 64 693 1,471 1,890 2,214 2,191 2,409 2,775 3,450 4,340 4,989
% Growth YOY 988% 112% 28% 17% -1% 10% 15% 24% 26%
Net Profit Margin 17% 71% 61% 70% 27% 36% 21% 14% 14% 14% 13%
EPS 4.4 47.9 101.7 130.6 139.1 137.7 151.4 174.4 216.8 272.7 313.5
% Growth YOY 988% 112% 28% 7% -1% 10% 15% 24% 26%
Price to earning 45.6 6.8 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 9.2 10.4 20.1 19.8 21.9
Price 201 328 521 686 761 791 1,396 1,808 4,366 5,391 6,861
Dividend Payout 20.3% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0%
Market Cap 2,902 4,746 7,540 9,921 12,103 12,587 22,215 28,777 69,470 85,785
Retained Earnings 51 675 1,447 1,859 2,181 2,152 2,369 2,733 3,407 4,296
Buffett's $1 Test 3.9

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 62.9% 43.7% 30.6% 39.2%
PBT Growth 52.6% 21.1% 18.4% 24.7%
PBT Margin 43.8% 36.0% 27.2% 19.7%
Price to Earning 13.3 10.9 13.0 16.8

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 6,964 6,621 239 -3,849 -6,922 -9,807 ### -9,795 ### ### -57,563
% Growth YoY -5% -96% -1708% 80% 42% 9% -9% 12% 77%
Cash from Investing Activity -7,052 -6,843 -3,011 -887 2,953 3,764 3,709 -886 151 -1,025 -9,127
Cash from Financing Activity -15 2 3,289 3,803 4,592 6,521 6,839 11,602 12,513 19,476 68,622
Net Cash Flow -103 -221 518 -933 623 478 -183 921 1,742 -910 1,932
CFO/Sales 1842% 674% 10% -142% -86% -163% -95% -48% -45% -63%
CFO/Net Profit ### 955% 16% -204% -313% -448% -445% -353% -317% -446%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 6,649 6,409 -125 -4,414 -7,529 ### ### ### ### ### -65,419
Average FCF (3 Years) -14,593
FCF Growth YoY -4% -102% 3439% 71% 43% 11% -4% 6% 66%
FCF/Sales 1758% 653% -5% -163% -93% -178% -105% -56% -50% -66%
FCF/Net Profit 9324% 1146% -11% -330% -478% -696% -703% -614% -538% -736%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 159.7% 146.0% 12.4% 196.7% -25.2% 88.2% 81.2% 19.4%
PBT Growth 464.6% 108.2% 35.0% 21.6% 7.1% 12.0% 17.0% 29.5%
Net Profit Growth 988.4% 112.2% 28.5% 17.2% -1.0% 10.0% 15.2% 24.3%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 25.0% 20.0% 10.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -4.9% -96.4% ### 79.9% 41.7% 9.4% -8.7% 11.5%
Free Cash Flow Growth -3.6% ### ### 70.6% 42.7% 10.6% -3.8% 6.4%

Operating Margin 43.1% 82.5% 74.5% 66.1% 48.8% 74.6% 48.7% 32.8% 35.6%
PBT Margin 37.1% 80.6% 68.3% 82.0% 33.6% 48.2% 28.7% 18.5% 20.1%
Net Margin 16.8% 70.6% 60.9% 69.6% 27.5% 36.4% 21.3% 13.5% 14.1%

Debtor Days 3.0 0.3 26.9 36.5 16.0 22.4 17.4 12.1 18.7
Inventory Turnover - - - - - - - - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.0 0.0 4.2 3.3 6.7 4.8 9.0 16.1 14.9
Debt/Equity 0.8 0.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1
Debt/Assets 9.4% 0.8% 12.4% 17.2% 19.9% 26.2% 29.8% 34.7% 37.5%
Interest Coverage (Times) ### #DIV/0! 6.5 4.0 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.3
Return on Equity 2.5% 26.4% 39.5% 37.1% 28.4% 23.5% 22.0% 20.7% 21.8%
Return on Capital Employed 3.0% 27.0% 18.7% 19.4% 18.8% 15.5% 14.7% 13.5% 13.5%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 6,649 6,409 -125 -4,414 -7,529 ### ### ### ###
Mar/18
24.9%
28.1%
25.8%
0.0%
77.3%
66.0%

35.8%
20.6%
14.2%

14.3
-
17.4
3.1
40.0%
2.4
21.0%
12.9%
###
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
100% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
50%
Check for a rising trend and
80% Numbers > 20% long term a
40% has zero/marginal debt. Com
60% 30%
40% 20%
20% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 10%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

35,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
1200%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
30,000 1000% Compare grow

25,000 800%
20,000 600%
15,000 400%
10,000 200%
5,000 0%
- Jan/10 Jan/12
-200%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

7,000 Profit Over Time Operating and

10,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
6,000 5,000 which are rising over tim
5,000 -
4,000 -5,000 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
3,000 -10,000
2,000 -15,000
1,000 -20,000
- -25,000
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 43% 83% 75% 66% 49% 75% 49% 33% 36%
PBT Margin 37% 81% 68% 82% 34% 48% 29% 19% 20%
Net Margin 17% 71% 61% 70% 27% 36% 21% 14% 14%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 2% 26% 39% 37% 28% 24% 22% 21% 22%
ROCE 3% 27% 19% 19% 19% 15% 15% 14% 13%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 160% 146% 12% 197% -25% 88% 81% 19% 25%
PBT Growth 465% 108% 35% 22% 7% 12% 17% 29% 28%
Net Profit Growth 988% 112% 28% 17% -1% 10% 15% 24% 26%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 378 982 2,415 2,715 8,055 6,023 11,335 20,533 24,507
PBT 140 792 1,649 2,226 2,708 2,902 3,251 3,804 4,925
Net Profit 64 693 1,471 1,890 2,214 2,191 2,409 2,775 3,450

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 6,964 6,621 239 -3,849 -6,922 -9,807 -10,731 -9,795 -10,922
Free Cash Flow 6,649 6,409 -125 -4,414 -7,529 -10,744 -11,887 -11,433 -12,160
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year

%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

%
%
%
%
%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.
-
0 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

 Mar/18
36%
21%
14%

Mar/18
21%
13%

Mar/18
30,599
6,310
4,340

Mar/18
-19,361
-20,185
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Change in Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Employee Cost 7% 5% 7% 10% 4% 7% 5% 4% 4% 5%
Selling and Admin Cost 1% 0% 7% 11% 4% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Other Expenses 46% 10% 11% 13% 43% 12% 42% 61% 58% 56%
Operating Profit 43% 83% 75% 66% 49% 75% 49% 33% 36% 36%
Other Income 2% 0% 7% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Depreciation 8% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Interest 0% 0% 12% 27% 15% 26% 20% 14% 15% 15%
Profit Before Tax 37% 81% 68% 82% 34% 48% 29% 19% 20% 21%
Tax 20% 10% 7% 12% 6% 12% 7% 5% 6% 6%
Net Profit 19% 57% 46% 49% 20% 26% 15% 9% 9% 9%
Dividend Amount 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 11% 6% 7% 8% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13%
Borrowings 9% 1% 12% 17% 20% 26% 30% 35% 38% 40%
Other Liabilities 79% 93% 81% 74% 68% 61% 58% 52% 50% 47%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 63% 73% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Capital Work in Progress 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Investments 29% 23% 80% 73% 66% 61% 58% 52% 49% 43%
Other Assets 7% 4% 19% 25% 32% 37% 40% 47% 50% 56%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cash & Bank 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

BAJAJ FINSERV LTD BAJAJ FINSERV LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (16,782) (14,984) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (19,299) (15,385) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (22,194) (15,797) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (24,413) (15,515) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (26,854) (15,238) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (29,540) (14,966) Sales 31% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (31,017) (14,030) PBT 18% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (32,568) (13,154) FCF 22% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (34,196) (12,331) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (35,906) (11,561) 10 FY27
10 -359,060 (115,608) 10
Intrinsic Value (252,740) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 109,182 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -143% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

BAJAJ FINSERV LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(17,511) (15,635) Year 4-6 15%
(21,014) (16,752) Year 7-10 10%
(25,216) (17,948) Discount Rate 12%
(28,999) (18,429)
(33,349) (18,923)
(38,351) (19,430)
(42,186) (19,083)
(46,405) (18,742)
(51,045) (18,407)
(56,150) (18,079)
(842,243) (271,180)
Intrinsic Value (446,779)
Current Mkt. Cap. 109,182
Premium/(Discount) to IV -124%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name BAJAJ FINSERV LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 3,032.9 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 7.2 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 69,475 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 109,182 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Mar/18

3,032.9
8.5
14.4

113,170
109,182

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) ### ###

###
Years 1-5 6-10 -304%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 57,790

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (16,782) 15% (14,984)
2 (19,299) 15% (15,385)
3 (22,194) 15% (15,797)
4 (25,523) 15% (16,220)
5 (29,351) 15% (16,655)
6 (32,873) 12% (16,655)
7 (36,818) 12% (16,655)
8 (41,236) 12% (16,655)
9 (46,185) 12% (16,655)
10 (51,727) 12% (16,655)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year ###
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
TD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 71 559 1,115 1,338 1,574 1,544 1,690
Net Profit Margin 19% 57% 46% 49% 20% 26% 15%
Return on Equity 2% 26% 39% 37% 28% 24% 22%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 8,514
Current P/E (x) 39.8
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 170,290
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 54,829
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 109,182

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,863 2,262 2,741 50% 12%
9% 9% 9%
21% 22% 21%
 Intrinsic Value Range
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho ### ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 69,475 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF ### understand this business?
Expected Return 54,829
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 109,182 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 5,920 6,317 7,040 7,536 8,266 8,005 9,072 8,771 9,698 ###
% Growth YOY 40% 27% 29% 16% 17% 39%
Expenses 3,727 3,960 4,889 5,193 5,537 5,091 6,262 5,404 6,296 7,076
Operating Profit 2,193 2,357 2,151 2,342 2,729 2,914 2,810 3,367 3,402 4,065
Other Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1
Depreciation 18 18 20 33 37 42 48 43 52 60
Interest 942 961 960 1,050 1,109 1,163 1,217 1,334 1,540 1,782
Profit before tax 1,233 1,378 1,171 1,259 1,584 1,710 1,546 1,990 1,810 2,224
PBT Margin 21% 22% 17% 17% 19% 21% 17% 23% 19% 20%
% Growth YOY 29% 24% 32% 58% 14% 30%
Tax 369 427 352 370 506 549 497 662 620 803
Net profit 576 614 535 585 698 731 637 826 704 851
% Growth YOY 21% 19% 19% 41% 1% 16%
OPM 37% 37% 31% 31% 33% 36% 31% 38% 35% 36%
COMPANY NAME BAJAJ FINSERV LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 15.91
Face Value 5
Current Price 6860.9
Market Capitalization 109181.69

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 378.18 981.99 2415.27 2714.62 8055.15 6022.6
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 3.1 14.15 5.19 4.8 8.89
Other Mfr. Exp 7.58 7.36 7.38 7.78 8.83 8.89
Employee Cost 27.45 47.35 175.72 262.06 331.64 440.73
Selling and admin 2.43 2.19 162.72 286.5 307.3 370.2
Other Expenses 174.63 100.38 264.3 359.2 3467.17 711.39
Other Income 7.12 3.42 168.37 1190.16 2.06 2.97
Depreciation 29.81 22.02 18.52 14.12 21.69 30.88
Interest 0.02 301.14 744.1 1203.58 1561.87
Profit before tax 140.28 791.96 1648.67 2226.22 2708.11 2901.61
Tax 76.58 98.65 177.7 336.47 493.94 710.49
Net profit 71.31 559.12 1114.84 1337.77 1573.64 1544.27
Dividend Amount 14.47 14.47 18.09 21.7 23.87 27.85

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 5919.86 6317.04 7040 7535.54 8266.08 8005.31
Expenses 3726.81 3959.78 4889.35 5193.15 5536.78 5091.3
Other Income 0.17 0.11 0.17 0.15 0.42 0.34
Depreciation 18.11 18.09 20.09 33.45 36.84 41.84
Interest 942.49 961.11 960.18 1049.99 1108.75 1163
Profit before tax 1232.62 1378.17 1170.55 1259.1 1584.13 1709.51
Tax 369.2 426.9 351.83 369.73 506.09 549.49
Net profit 575.75 613.76 534.9 584.53 698.2 730.5
Operating Profit 2193.05 2357.26 2150.65 2342.39 2729.3 2914.01

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 72.34 72.34 72.34 72.34 79.56 79.56
Reserves 2517.92 2553.03 3652.06 5026.67 7723.53 9231.59
Borrowings 2111.27 310.76 6693.35 10201.43 12990.73 19506.85
Other Liabilities 17850 36448.1 43608.08 44161.88 44585.22 45575.66
Total 22551.53 39384.23 54025.83 59462.32 65379.04 74393.66
Net Block 14313.64 28781.8 579.98 817.78 1207.87 1262.42
Capital Work in Progress 119.24 54.65 13.98 18.01 1.79 1.38
Investments 6595.45 8940.12 43127.47 43505.57 43250.91 45314.25
Other Assets 1523.2 1607.66 10304.4 15120.96 20918.47 27815.61
Total 22551.53 39384.23 54025.83 59462.32 65379.04 74393.66
Receivables 3.11 0.93 177.74 271.33 353.02 370.38
Inventory
Cash & Bank 641.84 518.45 1569.68 1046.6 1603.11 2060.99
No. of Equity Shares 144683510 144683510 144683510 144683510 159122352 159122352
New Bonus Shares
Face value 5 5 5 5 5 5

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 6964.19 6620.58 239.4 -3848.57 -6921.7 -9807.38
Cash from Investing Activity -7052.12 -6843.29 -3010.92 -887.31 2952.71 3763.94
Cash from Financing Activity -14.88 2.1 3289.08 3803.09 4592.48 6521.46
Net Cash Flow -102.81 -220.61 517.56 -932.79 623.49 478.02

PRICE: 200.597222 328.0081 521.11947 685.6785 760.635 791.0079

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 14.47 14.47 14.47 14.47 15.91 15.91
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

11334.79 20533.28 24507.3 30599.08

20.07 22.98 27.13 41.53

578.02 768.04 1000.73 1491.98
473.11 524.43 664.27 851.53
4747.61 12479.2 14102.01 17248.97
2.84 0.09 0.28 -0.04
38.15 57.72 72.63 103.43
2229.58 2876.95 3716.28 4551.43
3251.09 3804.05 4924.53 6310.17
841.94 1029.51 1474.82 1970.29
1689.79 1863.27 2261.92 2741.44
27.85 27.85 27.85 27.85

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

9071.75 8770.67 9698.14 11141.05
6261.93 5403.93 6295.65 7076.18
0.92 0.54 0.25 1.02
47.78 42.97 52.07 59.88
1216.97 1334.05 1540.28 1781.99
1545.99 1990.26 1810.39 2224.02
497.07 661.74 619.8 803.22
637.03 825.77 704.01 850.52
2809.82 3366.74 3402.49 4064.87

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 79.56 79.57 79.57 79.57
10881.38 13305.24 15724.47 20615.38
26312.09 36062.09 48282.04 63618.75
50968 54515.98 64537.07 74812.44
88241.03 103962.88 128623.15 159126.14
1260.67 1273.54 1645.4 1759.52
2.76 10.76 3.54 25.13
51366.55 53697.8 62658.46 68292.31
35611.05 48980.78 64315.75 89049.18
88241.03 103962.88 128623.15 159126.14
541.45 680.77 1253.12 1199.79

1408.54 2167.51 1498.67 1687.78

159125200 159131453 159131780 159135097

5 5 5 5

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

-10731.11 -9795.15 -10922.24 -19360.79
3709.28 -885.83 151.3 -1024.9
6838.77 11601.63 12512.74 19475.69
-183.06 920.65 1741.8 -910

1396.045 1808.4079 4365.56842 5390.71429

15.91 15.91 15.91 15.91

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