Name: Ansar Jawed Khan

ROLL NO: 16-10042

Presented to: Miss Fatima Tariq

1
 Abstract

The basic aim of this study is to identify the impact of World Governance
Indicators on Child Mortality by using Control of corruption and Rule of law as
main variables in south Asian countries like Pakistan,India,Bangladesh. To
measure the impact and relationship of these indicators on Child mortality,
important control variables used are Total GDP, Total Female Education, Female
Labor ratio, Total population etc along with main variables Control of corruption
and rule of law used in two separate models.OLS method was used to check the
impact of these variables on child mortality. Panel data was used for countries
which are already mentioned above for years 1996,1998,2000,2002-2017. Our
findings revealed that control of corruption and rule of law, both have negative
relationship with child mortality. Overall both models are significant with 94.78%
and 94.92% R-Square values explained by both models.

Key Words. Child Mortality, Control of Corruption, Rule of Law, OLS Method.

2
 Acknowledgement:

After the blessings of Allah Almighty, if there are some people who deserves to be
thanked for their tireless and selfless efforts then those are the instructors who
made me along with my other class fellows, able to study this course, specially
ma’am Fatima Tariq who is so talented, full of grip on her content and helping at
such young age. It was really a good luck that I registered this course and studied it
from her.

I am also thank full for all my classmates, who helped during this entire course and
specially during this research work.

Last but not least, I’m thankfull to my parents specially who made this all possible.
Without their moral supports, this wasn’t possible at all.

3
4
WORLD GOVERNANCE INDICATORS AND ITS IMPACT ON CHILD
MORTALITY

Introduction:

According to World Health Organization (WHO) and 4 th most important

Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s) nations are committed to improve child
health to ensure nations prosperous future. As children are the building block of
any nation in development and they are more attached with their mother so
whatever the steps by the female will also contributes towards the welfare of the
society. In order to achieve all these desired outcomes there must be a controlling
authority to ensure the smooth application of the world governance indicators.
When it comes to South Asian regions they are one of those who are the biggest
recipients of foreign aid and funds under MDG’s. According to United Nations
International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF, 2008) despite of rise in
average per capita incomes and decline in the poverty rates still almost 500 million
people live on less than US$1/day. This phenomenon indicates the bad governance
which also the part of research. According to definition presented by United Nation
Development Programme, “Good governance is management of the public affairs
based on the rule of law, fair and efficient judiciary system and extensive
participation of people in process of governance.” That means to make ensure the
more participation of public there must be more effective and fair judiciary system,
which would result in the better governance of nation.

According to the definition of World Bank good governance is based on six

indicators which are;

1) Law 2) accountability 3) political instability 4) governance 5) corruption 6)

regulatory quality

5
Literature Review:

There are so many studies that have been done in the field of child mortality. Some
studies done in parts of African countries e.g. on block of Sub-Saharan Africa and
some on Asian region specifically in South Asia.

In case of African countries, Makuta and O’Hare(2015) says that public spending
on health improves health outcomes in countries with higher quality of governance
and lower impact in countries with lower quality of governance and this may be
due to increased efficiency and better allocation of resources of same as quality of
governance improves. Two staged least square regression technique was used over
a panel data of 43 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa from time period 1996-2011.
The study concluded that improving quality of governance would improve health
governance in sub-saharan Africa. The same increase in public spending in health
is twice as effective in reducing Under 5 mortality and increasing life expectancy
in countries with good quality of governance as compared to countries with lower
quality of governance.

Gupta, M.S. (2000) says that corruption shifts the composition of public spending
away from social sectors, its impact on health care and education indicators may
not be through spending may not be significant.

Corruption can reduce investment in human capital, (Ehrlich and Lui,1999).

Corruption can reduce government revenue (Shelfer and Vishny, 1993) which in
turn can lower the quality of publically provided services,(Bearse,Glomm and
Janeba,2000).

Prinzon-Rondon, et al(2015), says that it is necessary to start considering the

country’s adherence to rule of law as a foundational determinant of health. Health
6
advocates should consider the improvement of rule of law as a tool to improve
population health. This study was conducted over a data set of 96 countries
comprising of 91% of population. Rule of law index was used in cross-sectional
and ecological design.

WHO (2015) states that The accountability work has been an important entry point
for governments to integrate diverse health projects and transition them to most
sustainable programs. Through improved governance mechanisms more
stakeholders particularly civil society are able to make meaningful contributions.

WHO (2015) said Budget analysis and advocacy are central parts of accountability
as analyzing health budgets in relation to coasted plans and expenditures enables a
range of stakeholders to hold policy makers accountable for their commitments.

Shleifer and Vishny (1993), the more the number of people employed will reduce
the level of corruption. The lower the number of people hired will increase the
demand for bribe. (Boboc. Ecaterina, 2009) says Drawing a parallel with health
sector we can say that doctors possesses a monopolistic power and can limit the
provision of health care services to patients who are unable to pay and on the other
hand if number of doctors is large and patients can choose so they will go to doctor
who demands less money for services he provides. The data used for this study was
obtained from sites of WHO,IMF OECD and OLS method was used in favor of
Panel data approach. It was suggested that to curb the corruption, health care
system should be systematic, theoretical, existent empirical evidence and local
realities and designed to curb corruption not only in health sector but in overall.

7
Research Question:

The research question of the study is that

How does a change in World Governance Indicators in general and corruption in

particular leads to change in Child Mortality in developing nations.?

Hypothesis of study is:

• H1: Control of corruption has negative impact on Child Mortality.

• H1: Rule of law has negative impact on child mortality.

Methodology:

Data for variables GDP per Capita, Child Mortality under five and Fertility Rate
has been taken from World Development Indicators and data for Control of
Corruption and Rule of Law has been taken from WGI database of World Bank
Databank.

Theoretical Framework:

In this research, the impact of world governance indicators will be analyzed and
studied by using the proxy variable Mortality under five (as child mortality) on
control of corruption and rule of law along with other important control variables.

Dependent Variable:

Child Mortality under 5.

8
Independent Variables:

Total GDP

Control of Corruption.

Rule of Law.

Fertility Rate.

Female Labor Ratio

Total Female Education

Total Population Age

Variables Proxy Data Source

Independent Variable Child Mortality (under five) World Development
Child Health Indicators.
Independent Total GDP (Current US $) World Development
Variables: Indicators
Gross Domestic
Product
Fertility Rate Fertility Rate, Total(Birth per World Development
1000 Women) Indicators
Female Labor Ratio Employers, female (% of World Development
female employment) (modeled
Indicators
ILO estimate)

Rule of Law Rule of Law (Estimates) World Governance

Indicators
Control Of Corruption Control of Corruption World Governance

9
 (Estimates) Indicators
Total Female Education  Educational attainment, World Development
at least completed lower Indicators
secondary, Post
secondary, Primary,
Upper secondary,
Bachelors or equivalent,
Masters or equivalent,
Doctoral or equivalent,
population 25+, female
(%) (cumulative)
[SE.SEC.CUAT.LO.FE.
ZS]
Total Population Age Population Age 15-64 World Governance
Indicators.

This tables shows the proxy variables data their data source. Panel data will be
taken to see the impact of Corruption (mainly) and other specifies variables with
reference to developing countries mainly in south Asian region.

MODEL:

OLS models will be used. The models developed considers those variables that
play an important role in the impact of control of Corruption and rule of law on
Child Mortality with reference to region mentioned above.

This is the most commonly used method and it is considered appropriate in giving
results.

10
 • α = Intercept.

• Β = Regression Coefficient.

• E = Error Term.

• MR= Child Mortality Rate.

• TGDP= Total GDP.

• COC= Control of Corruption.

• ROL= Rule of Law.

• FR= Fertility Rate.

• FLR= Female Labor ratio.

• TFE= Total Female Education.

• TPA=Total Population.

Model 1:

CMR= α0 + β1 FR – β2TGDP –β3 TFE – β4 FLR+ β5 TPA – β6 COC + e

Model 2:

CMR= α0 + β1 FR – β2 TGDP – β3 TFE – β4 FLR+ β5 TPA – β6 ROL + e

11
To see variables are correlated or not some test like auto correlation have been
applied. Hettest and Variance inflation test have also been applied to check
heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. To check specification bias, OVTEST,
Linktest were used.

References:

1) Gupta, M. S. (2000). Corruption and the provision of health care and education
services. International Monetary Fund.

2) Pinzon-Rondon, A. M., Attaran, A., Botero, J. C., & Ruiz-Sternberg, A. M.

(2015). Association of rule of law and health outcomes: an ecological study. BMJ
open, 5(10), e007004.

3) Makuta, I., & O’Hare, B. (2015). Quality of governance, public spending on

health and health status in Sub Saharan Africa: a panel data regression
analysis. BMC Public Health, 15(1), 932.

4) World Health Organization. (2015). Accountability for women's and children's

health: 2015 Progress Report.

5) Holland, J., Thirkell, A., Trepanier, E., & Earle, L. (2009). Measuring change
and results in voice and accountability work. DFID, Department for International
Development, Working Paper, (134).

6) Frey, R. S., & Field, C. (2000). The determinants of infant mortality in the less
developed countries: a cross-national test of five theories. Social Indicators
Research, 52(3), 215-234.

12