Commodities Monthly

November 2, 2010

Real demand for real assets

= N

General Forecast: 0-3 M
, 4-6 M  , 7-12 M
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices
• FED likely to embark on a second round of quantitative easing (price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
thereby stimulating the US economy and keeping the USD weak 200 Industrial Metals
• Chinese optimism with PMI hitting 6 month high as well as strong 190
180
Precious Metals
Energy
re-stocking ahead of the next 5 year plan starting in January 2011 170 Agriculture
• Investor demand for emerging market assets in general and 160
150
commodities in particular is strong based on the emerging market 140
growth case and USD weakness 130
120
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M
, 4-6 M  , 7-12 M
110
• We expect Brent crude to trade in the upper part of the $70-90/b 100
90
range in Q4, supported by continued USD weakness, low OECD 80
double dip risk and strong emerging market demand 70
• European clean diesel demand presents some upside risk
jan-09
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09
jun-09
jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
• Brent crude levelled out just below $85/b in October as the dollar
stabilized =
• Recovering OECD demand have driven IEA 2010 and 2011
Performance overview
(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
consumption estimates up to 86.9 and 88.2 mb/d respectively
28
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M
, 7-12 M  26
24
YTD (%) MoM (%)

• We expect strong demand for industrial metals in Q4 due to 22

20
18
continued Chinese energy preservation efforts, physical ETF 16
14
introductions, healthy demand and falling inventories 12
• Industrial metals moved closer to record highs in October 10
8
• With the sector only marginally hurt by a Chinese interest rate 6
4
2
hike, a soft landing in the Chinese property sector remains likely 0
-2
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M
, 4-6 M  , 7-12 M

Equities

Commodities

Energy

Precious
Industrial

Agriculture
metals
metals

• While gold prices are exposed in the short term, the strategic view
remains constructive based on low interest rates, economic
uncertainty, weak currencies and limited supply
• The three month long gold rally was broken in October with prices Winners & Losers last month
(closing prices, %)=
declining following a record high of $1388.10/ozt
• The US QE2 implementation plan is key for developments in the 22
20
gold price, based on its likely effect on the USD, with the FOMC 18
16
(November 3) and G20 (November 11-12) meetings in focus 14
12
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M  , 4-6 M
, 7-12 M  10
• The agricultural rally appears to have become over-extended as 8
6
speculators place bets on further weather related disruptions 4
• In October, agricultural commodity prices continued to rally by 2
0
13.7% due to adverse weather, taking gains to 53.6% from the -2
-4
summer low -6
CO2 (EUA)

US Nat. Gas
US Heat. Oil

US Gasoline

Coffe, Arabica
Nickel

Gold

Corn
Cotton
Brent

Copper

Silver
Cocoa
Aluminium

Soybeans
Power, Cont.

Tin

Lead

Steel

Sugar
Power, Nordic

•
Platinum

Zinc

Palladium
WTI

Wheat

A La Niña-related risk premium is justified at the moment but the

phenomenon is expected to fade during the northern
hemisphere’s spring, creating further downside risks
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period. =
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
=

Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Commodity Analyst) bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 92 48 92 30

Filip Petersson (Commodity Strategist) filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodity Research

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= ïáää=í~âÉ=éä~ÅÉ=áå=nìáíç=EbÅì~ÇçêF=çå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=
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OMNN=ïÉêÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ääó=êÉîáëÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê=áå=lÅíçÄÉêÛë=
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ÇÉã~åÇ= ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë= Äó= UM= âÄLÇ= íç= URKRV= ãÄLÇ=
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~åÇ= USKSQ= ãÄLÇ= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóK= qÜÉ= rp=
aÉé~êíãÉåí= çÑ= båÉêÖó= EalbF= ÑçääçïÉÇ= ëìáíI=
áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= áíë= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Éëíáã~íÉ= Äó= NNM=
âÄLÇ= íç= USKMS= ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= éêçàÉÅíáçå= Äó= UM=
âÄLÇ= íç= UTKQQ= ãÄLÇK= eçïÉîÉêI= íÜÉ= ä~êÖÉëí=
êÉîáëáçå= çÅÅìêêÉÇ= áå= íÜÉ= ãçëí= áãéçêí~åí= çÑ= íÜÉ=
íÜêÉÉ= ãçåíÜäó= êÉéçêíëI= Ñêçã= íÜÉ= fb^= ïÜáÅÜ=
ìéÖê~ÇÉÇ= áíë= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçå= Äó= POM=
âÄLÇ= íç= USKVM= ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= áíë= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=
ÑçêÉÅ~ëí=Äó=OTM=âÄLÇ=íç=UUKOM=ãÄLÇK=fí=ÇáÇ=ëç=íç=
ÇáëÅçìåí= ÜáÖÜÉê= Åçåëìãéíáçå= ÖÉåÉê~ääó= Äìí=
~äëçI= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäóI= ~å= ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= êÉÄçìåÇ= áå=
lb`a= ÇÉã~åÇK= däçÄ~ä= çáä= ëìééäó= ÑÉää= Äó= NRM=
âÄLÇ=íç=USKV=ãÄLÇ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=ÇìÉ=íç=ïÉ~âÉê=
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pÉéíÉãÄÉêK=
=
Monthly global demand estimates=
2010 Revision 2011 Revision
(mb/d) (kb/d) (mb/d) (kb/d)
IEA 86.90 +320 88.20 +270
EIA 86.06 +110 87.44 +80
OPEC 85.59 +80 86.64 +80
=
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áåîÉåíçêáÉëI= íÜÉ= fb^= êÉéçêíÉÇ= íÜ~í= áåÇìëíêó=
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ÅçåëìãéíáçåF= áå= ^ìÖìëíI= íÜÉáê= ÜáÖÜÉëí= äÉîÉä=
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SEB Commodity Research
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=
Freight Indices
(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=
Baltic Dry Index (left axis)
1500
1400 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)
1300 Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 0
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
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ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ä~ëí= ïÉÉâ= çÑ= lÅíçÄÉêK= ^ÑíÉê= íê~ÇáåÖ=
ïáíÜáå= ~= îÉêó= íáÖÜí= ê~åÖÉ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= bro= RMJ
ROLjtÜI= nNJNN= ÄêçâÉ= çìí= çå= íÜÉ= ÇçïåëáÇÉ= íç=
ÉåÇ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= ~í= bro= QUKUMLjtÜK= qÜÉ=
dÉêã~å= Ñçêï~êÇ= ã~êâÉí= éêÉãáìã= îëK= íÜÉ=
kçêÇáÅ=êÉÖáçå=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áå=lÅíçÄÉê=~åÇ=áë=åçï=
~í=ÜáëíçêáÅ~ääó=äçï=äÉîÉäëK=nNJNN=íê~ÇÉë=Ñä~í=ïÜáäÉ=
voJNN= íê~ÇÉë= ïáíÜ= ~= bro= PLjtÜ= éêÉãáìã= áå=
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500
=
450
pïÉÇáëÜ= åìÅäÉ~ê= ~î~áä~Äáäáíó= êÉã~áåë= ~= íçéáÅ=
400
ÉñíÉåëáîÉäó= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= áå= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉíK= lå=
350
~îÉê~ÖÉI= çîÉê= RMB= çÑ= áåëí~ääÉÇ= Å~é~Åáíó= ï~ë=
300
çÑÑäáåÉ= áå= lÅíçÄÉê= ÇìÉ= íç= ~ååì~ä= ã~áåíÉå~åÅÉ=
250
éêçÖê~ãë= ~åÇ= L= çê= ÇáëíìêÄ~åÅÉëI= ~äÄÉáí= áå= äáåÉ=
200
ïáíÜ= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK= mêçëéÉÅíáîÉäóI= íÜÉ= ëáíì~íáçå=
150
~ééÉ~êë= ãìÅÜ= ÄÉííÉê= íÜ~å= áå= OMMVK= låÅÉ= éä~åíë=
100 êÉíìêå= íç= íÜÉ= ÖêáÇ=~ë=éä~ååÉÇ=ïÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí=
50 ~äãçëí= ÅçãéäÉíÉ=~î~áä~Äáäáíó=ïáíÜáå=íïç=ïÉÉâëI=
~äíÜçìÖÜ= Ñêçã= ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ= ïÉ= êÉ~äáòÉ= pïÉÇáëÜ=
åìÅäÉ~ê=éä~åíë=~êÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=íç=êÉëí~êí=çå=íáãÉK=
= =
P
SEB Commodity Research

CRUDE OIL
=

Crude oil price US crude oil inventories

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
150 NYMEX WTI 380 2005-2009 avg.
140 ICE Brent 2009
130 370 2010
120
110 360
100 350
90
80 340
70
60 330
50
40 320
30
20 310
10
300
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
OIL PRODUCTS
=

Gasoline and heating oil prices Gasoline and distillate inventories

(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)= (DOE, mb, weekly data)=
450 NYMEX Gasoline 240
NYMEX Heating oil 230
400
220
350 210
200 Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
300 190 Gasoline 2010
180 Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.
250
Distillate fuel oil 2010
170
200 160
150 150
140
100 130
120
50
110
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

j f m a m j j a s o n d
= =
POWER
=

Nordic power price Continental power price

(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)= (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
80 95
75 90
85
70
80
65 75
60 70
55 65
60
50 55
45 50
40 45
35 40
35
30 30
25 25
20 20
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

Q
SEB Commodity Research

CO2 NATURAL GAS

=

EUA price US natural gas prices

(ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing) (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
35 15
14
13
30
12
11
25 10
9
8
20 7
6
15 5
4
3
10
2
1
5 0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
=
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

WTI Brent
(NYMEX, $/b)= (ICE, $/b)=
90 91
89 90
88
89
87
88
86
85 87
84 86 10-10-22
10-10-22
83 85 10-09-30
10-09-30
82 10-10-29
10-10-29 84
81
80 83
79 82
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14

=
= =
Heating oil US natural gas
(NYMEX, ¢/gal)= (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
250 6,5 10-10-22
248 10-09-30
246 6,0 10-10-29
244
242 5,5
240
238 5,0
236
234
232 4,5
230 10-10-22
228 4,0
226 10-09-30
224 10-10-29 3,5
222
220 3,0
dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

nov-10
mar-11
jul-11
nov-11
mar-12
jul-12
nov-12
mar-13
jul-13
nov-13
mar-14
jul-14
nov-14
mar-15
jul-15
nov-15
mar-16
jul-16
nov-16
mar-17

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LME prices and inventories m/m
15 Price (%) Inventories (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Zinc
Tin
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Steel
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`ìêêÉåí= êÉëíçÅâáåÖ= áë= äáâÉäó= íç= ÅçåíáåìÉ= áå= nQK=
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Etp^F= ÖêçïíÜ= áå= ëíÉÉä= ÇÉã~åÇ= åÉñí= óÉ~ê= ïáää=
ëäçï=íç=RKPB=Ñêçã=NPKNB=áå=OMNMK=fí=~äëç=ÉñéÉÅíë=
fåÇá~= ~åÇ= `Éåíê~ä= ~åÇ= pçìíÜ= ^ãÉêáÅ~= ê~íÜÉê=
íÜ~å=`Üáå~=íç=ÇêáîÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=OMNNK=
píáääI= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ëíÉÉä= ãáääë= ~êÉ= êÉéçêíÉÇäó= îÉêó=
çéíáãáëíáÅ= Ñçê=åÉñí=óÉ~ê=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ëí~êí=çÑ=~=åÉï=
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=
SEB Commodity Research

ALUMINIUM
=

Aluminium price Aluminium stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
3500 5000000 SHFE
COMEX
3250
LME
3000 4000000
2750
2500 3000000
2250
2000 2000000
1750
1500 1000000
1250
1000 0

2000

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2008
2009
2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
= =
COPPER
=

Copper price Copper stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
9000 1400000 SHFE
COMEX
8000 1200000 LME

7000
1000000
6000
800000
5000
600000
4000
400000
3000

2000 200000

1000 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =
NICKEL
=

Nickel price Nickel stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
55000 180000
50000 160000
45000
140000
40000
35000
120000
30000 100000
25000 80000
20000
60000
15000
40000
10000
5000 20000
0 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
2010

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

U
SEB Commodity Research

ZINC
=

Zinc price Zinc stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
5000 900000 SHFE
LME
4500 800000
4000 700000
3500 600000
3000 500000
2500 400000
2000 300000
1500 200000
1000 100000
500 0

2000

2001

2002

2003
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
= =
LEAD
=

Lead price Lead stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
4000 225000

3500 200000

3000 175000
150000
2500
125000
2000
100000
1500
75000
1000 50000
500 25000
0 0
2000

2001

2002

2003
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =
TIN
=

Tin price Tin stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
27000 40000

24000 35000

21000 30000

18000 25000

15000 20000
12000 15000
9000 10000
6000 5000
3000 0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

V
SEB Commodity Research

STEEL
=

Steel price Steel stocks

(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)= (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
650 90000
625 80000
600
70000
575
550 60000
525 50000
500 40000
475 30000
450
20000
425
400 10000
375 0
aug-09

okt-09

dec-09

feb-10

apr-10

jun-10

aug-10

okt-10

jul-08

okt-08

jan-09

apr-09

jul-09

okt-09

jan-10

apr-10

jul-10

okt-10
= =
FUTURES CURVES
=

Aluminium Copper
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=
2600 10-10-22 8400
2575 8300
10-09-30
2550 8200
10-10-29 8100
2525 8000
2500 7900
2475 7800
2450 7700
7600 10-10-22
2425 7500 10-09-30
2400 7400
7300 10-10-29
2375
2350 7200
7100
2325 7000
2300 6900
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14

=
= =
Nickel Zinc
(LME, $/t)= (LME, $/t)=
23500 2575
23250 2550
23000 2525
22750 2500
2475
22500 2450
22250 2425
22000 2400 10-10-22
21750 2375 10-09-30
2350
21500 10-10-22 2325 10-10-29
21250 10-09-30 2300
21000 2275
20750 10-10-29 2250
20500 2225
2200
20250 2175
20000 2150
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14

nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ

NM
SEB Commodity Research
=PRECIOUS METALS
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~îÉê~ÖÉ= ÖêáÇI= ëí~êíáåÖ= ~í= ANPMMLçòíI= åçï= ~ííê~ÅíáîÉ=
Ñçê=ëìÅÜ=~=ãçîÉ=äçïÉêK=mêáÅÉë=~ÄçîÉ=ANPRMLçòí=ïçìäÇ=
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=
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
24
YTD (%) MoM (%)
22
20
18
16
14
12
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
SEB Commodity Research

GOLD
=

Gold price Gold to silver ratio

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (front month, weekly closing)=
1400 88
1300 84
1200 80
1100 76
1000 72
900
68
800
64
700
60
600
500 56
400 52
300 48
200 44

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
= =
=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM

=

Silver price Platinum and palladium prices

(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)= (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
26 1100 2300
24 1000 Palladium (left axis)
2050
22 Platinum (right axis)
900
20 1800
800
18
700 1550
16
14 600 1300
12 500 1050
10 400
8 800
300
6
200 550
4
2 100 300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =
=

FUTURES CURVES
=

Gold Silver
(COMEX, $/ozt)= (COMEX, $/ozt)
1525 10-10-22 25,50
10-09-30
1500 25,00
10-10-29
1475 24,50
10-10-22
1450
24,00 10-09-30
1425 10-10-29
23,50
1400
23,00
1375
1350 22,50

1325 22,00
1300 21,50
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
mar-16
jun-16

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=

NO
SEB Commodity Research
AGRICULTURE
=
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=

CORN
=

Corn price Corn ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
800 180
mt
700 160 days of supply

600 140

500 120

400 100

300 80

200 60

100 40

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 = =
=

WHEAT
=

Wheat price Wheat ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1200 220
mt
1100 200 days of supply
1000
180
900
800 160

700 140
600 120
500
100
400
80
300
200 60
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

= =
SOYBEANS
=

Soybean price Soybean ending stocks

(CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)= (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
1800 120
mt
days of supply
1600
100
1400
80
1200

1000 60

800
40
600

400 20
00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NQ
=

SUGAR COFFEE
=

Sugar price Coffee price (Arabica)

(NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)= (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=
30 220
200
25
180
20 160
140
15
120
10 100
80
5
60
0 40
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
= =
=

=FUTURES CURVES
=

Corn Wheat
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/bu)=
610 10-10-22 840
600 830
10-09-30 820
590
580 10-10-29 810
570 800
790
560 780
550 770
540 760
530 750
520 740
510 730
500 720 10-10-22
490 710
700 10-09-30
480 690 10-10-29
470 680
460 670
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13
= =
=

Soybeans Sugar
(CBOT, ¢/bu)= (CBOT, ¢/lb)=
1250 30
1230 10-10-22 29 10-10-22
10-09-30 28 10-09-30
1210 27
10-10-29 10-10-29
1190 26
1170 25
24
1150 23
1130 22
21
1110 20
1090 19
1070 18
17
1050 16
1030 15
mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13

=
= =
=
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=

NR
=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
=
=
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 8,1 2010-08-31 7,1 2010-07-31 2010-11-12
Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,1 2010-08-31 0,1 2010-07-31 2010-11-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 77,6 2010-12-31 77,2 2010-09-30 N/A
Manufacturing PMI 54,1 2010-10-31 53,7 2010-09-30 2010-11-02
Real GDP (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-06-30 0,8 2010-03-31 2010-11-12
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,0 2010-06-30 0,3 2010-03-31 2010-11-12
CPI (%, YoY) 1,8 2010-09-30 1,6 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
CPI (%, MoM) 0,2 2010-09-30 0,2 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
Consumer confidence -11,0 2010-10-31 -11,0 2010-09-30 2010-11-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,4 2010-09-30 6,4 2010-08-31 N/A
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,2 2010-09-30 0,2 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
Capacity utilization (%) 74,7 2010-09-30 74,8 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
Manufacturing PMI 56,9 2010-10-31 54,4 2010-09-30 2010-11-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 3,1 2010-09-30 3,0 2010-06-30 N/A
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,0 2010-09-30 1,7 2010-06-30 2010-11-23
CPI (%, MoM) 1,1 2010-09-30 1,1 2010-08-31 2010-11-17
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,1 2010-09-30 0,3 2010-08-31 2010-11-17
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2010-08-31 102,4 2010-07-31 N/A
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 67,7 2010-10-31 68,2 2010-09-30 2010-11-12
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) -95 2010-09-30 -57 2010-08-31 2010-11-05
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 11,1 2010-09-30 15,1 2010-08-31 2010-11-15
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -1,9 2010-09-30 -0,5 2010-08-31 2010-11-15
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 88,3 2010-08-31 89,1 2010-07-31 N/A
Manufacturing PMI 47,2 2010-10-31 49,5 2010-09-30 2010-11-29
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 2,4 2010-06-30 4,7 2010-03-31 N/A
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,4 2010-06-30 1,2 2010-03-31 2010-11-14
CPI (%, YoY) 0,3 2010-10-31 -0,6 2010-09-30 2010-11-25
CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-09-30 0,3 2010-08-31 N/A
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,3 2010-08-31 103,0 2010-07-31 N/A
Consumer confidence 41,4 2010-09-30 42,5 2010-08-31 2010-11-10
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 13,3 2010-09-30 13,9 2010-08-31 2010-11-11
Manufacturing PMI 54,7 2010-10-31 53,8 2010-09-30 2010-11-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,6 2010-09-30 10,3 2010-06-30 N/A
CPI (%, YoY) 3,6 2010-09-30 3,5 2010-08-31 2010-11-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 101,3 2010-08-31 101,7 2010-07-31 N/A
Consumer confidence 104,4 2010-09-30 107,3 2010-08-31 N/A
Bank lending (%, YoY) 18,6 2010-08-31 18,4 2010-07-31 N/A
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 24,0 2010-09-30 25,0 2010-06-30 N/A
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,9 2010-08-31 103,0 2010-07-31 N/A
Global manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-09-30 53,7 2010-08-31 N/A
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NS
=PERFORMANCE
=
=
Closing YTD 1m 1q 1y 5y
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1240,91 5,5 4,4 11,0 14,8 55,3
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1168,12 5,4 4,4 10,9 14,7 37,9
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1474,12 8,8 4,7 12,2 19,8 84,7
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1299,28 -4,2 0,7 1,2 1,5 17,0
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1174,18 4,9 1,5 10,0 21,5 93,1
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2013,72 23,3 4,7 17,3 32,6 192,9
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1809,68 23,8 13,7 28,7 36,9 139,3
Baltic Dry Index 2678,00 -14,7 9,5 36,1 -13,7 -14,0

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 81,43 -0,1 1,8 3,1 5,8 36,3
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 83,15 3,8 1,0 6,4 10,6 43,1
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2323,00 3,8 -0,3 7,1 23,5 16,4
Copper (LME, $/t) 8191,25 9,6 2,3 12,5 26,7 101,3
Nickel (LME, $/t) 22933,00 21,1 -2,1 8,7 25,9 91,6
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2400,75 -5,7 10,5 19,8 12,3 56,3
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 495,00 21,5 12,1 0,5 39,0 N/A
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1357,60 21,4 3,8 14,9 30,5 190,8
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 582,00 39,1 17,4 48,2 59,0 196,6
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 717,25 28,6 6,4 8,4 45,1 126,3
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1226,00 16,8 10,8 16,5 25,4 117,1
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS
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Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report November 12 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report November 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook November 8 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE November 9 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report November 25 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC extraordinary meeting, Quito, Ecuador December 11 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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CONTACT LIST
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COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head of terje.anderson@seb.no +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
Commodities
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALES
Mats Forsell Sales mats.forsell@seb.se +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Charlotte Aleblad Sales charlotte.aleblad@seb.se +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Katarina Johnsson Sales katarina.johnsson@seb.se +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Maximilian Brodin Sales maximilian.brodin@seb.no +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
INST. SALES
Arne Boberg Head of inst. sales arne.boberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Karin Almgren Broker karin.almgren@seb.se +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst christian.ekstrand@seb.se +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Andreas Hansson Sales andreas.x.hansson@seb.se +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Trader mats.hedberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Stephan Roelly Trader stephan.roelly@seb.se +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39
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TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst anders.soderberg@seb.se +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1
Dag Müller Tech. analyst dag.muller@seb.no +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9

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