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Lecture 13
Value of ‘t’ in above equations depends on nature of t-test (one tail test of
two tail test). Or whether the null hypothesis is defined to identify difference
in one direction or two. (a null hypothesis to say that ‘x’ is not less than y
would require a one-tailed test, while a null hypothesis to say ‘x’ is not equal
to y would require a two tailed test.)
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Examples
1. Suppose that it is desired to estimate the average daily
flow of traffic pass a site and to be 95% confident that
the answer is within 10% of the correct value. It is
suspected that the flow varies quite markedly from day
to day. For how many days will it be necessary to
collect flow data?
2. Suppose that it is desired to estimate the average
household trip rate in a large city and to have 95%
confidence that answer obtained is within 10% of the
true mean. How many households need to be
surveyed? If instead of a large city the survey is to be
carried out in a small village with only 100 households
then how many households need to be surveyed?
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Secondary Sources
Use of existing data ‘secondary sources’ can
save time and money – Inventory
Desirable when a survey can cause disruption to
the travelling public
But, under some critical circumstance it is
necessary to conduct a survey.
Sources of secondary data:
1. Published database
2. Previous local area surveys and
3. Data produced as by product of control or
management system.
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Secondary Sources
Published tabulations
Collected by government agencies as part of regular monitoring
Useful for establishing trends on issues such as car ownership,
accidents, seasonal tends in traffic flow.
Need to focus on variable definitions and sample sizes.
Detailed local data
May be part of local monitoring program
Need to focus on variable definitions and sample sizes.
Proper documentation of data
Use of GIS should reduce the documentation problem.
Data produced as by product of control or management
system.
Traffic flow and congestion captured during the operation of fully
automated urban traffic flow systems, usage of car parks with computer
controlled entry an exist barriers, flow of vehicles at toll points.
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Inputs
Urban Transportation •Transportation system characteristics
Planning or Model System •Land use-activity system characteristics
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Trip Rate and Trip Production
Future total number of trips is estimated by trip
rate ‘R’.
Present ‘R’ and Future ‘R’ are assumed to be
same
Number of trip present
R present
Population present
Number of trip future
R future
Population future
Number of trip future R future( R present) xPopulatio n future
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1. Trip generation
Number of trips produced by (= trip generation) or
attracted to (= trip attraction) a given piece of land or
each zone depends.
Land use type
Intensity and socioeconomics characteristics
Zone i Zone j
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1. Trip generation – cont’d
Models of estimating future trip attraction / generation
Disaggregate type models
Analytical unit: person, household
Whether a person (household) have a trip or not (0 or 1) – DM
Probability of trip generation (0 to 1) – PM or SM
Trip frequency rate of a person by each trip purpose
Characteristics of unit
Household income, car ownership, trip purpose, occupation, etc.
Aggregate type model
Analytical unit: zone
Number of trip generation / attraction
Characteristics of unit
Number of residential population
Number of working population
Zonal floor space by business type
Distance of zone from city center
Accessibility to the work place
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1. Trip generation – cont’d
Models of estimating future trip attraction / generation
Estimation by personal and zonal attributes
Constrained by the given future total tip production of the total area.
Ti Fi ti
Ti future no. of trips
ti present no. of trips
Fi growth factor
where the subscript " d" denotes the
design year and the subscript "c" denotes
F is difficult to estimate the current year.
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1. Trip generation – cont’d
Example
Given that a zone has 275 household with car and 275 household without
car and the average trip generation rates for each groups is respectively 5.0
and 2.5 trips per day. Assuming that in the future, all household will have a
car, find the growth factor and future trips from that zone, assuming that the
population and income remains constant.
The above example also shows the limitation of growth factor method. If we
think intuitively, the trip rate will remain same in the future. Therefore the
number of trips in the future will be 550households 5 trips per day = 2750
trips per day .
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1. Trip generation – cont’d
2. Linear Multiple Regression Model
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1. Trip generation – cont’d
Model verification
important indices of regression model
Goodness of fit in each variables
T-test, checked by t-value (or the P-value)
More than 95% significant
Consistency of the sign conditions (±)
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QUESTIONS !!!!