Conditional Probability # 1

Teacher(s): Brittanie Campos Subject: Math

Standard(s): ​Common Core, Arizona Career and College Ready Standards, ISTE Standards apply to this lesson

● A2.S-CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence utilizing
real-world context.
Objectives (Explicit): ​Use Bloom’s verbiage and “formula”

● I can apply the Addition Rule to different representations of probability models (Venn Diagram, Tree
Diagram, and two-way tables).
● I can interpret the Addition Rule in an abstract or real-world context.
Evidence of Mastery (Measurable): ​An actual “product” /Include an explanation of how you are going to grade/grading
tool? (rubric, checklist, etc.)

Check-In:

Addition Rule of Probability:

1. In a class of 50 students, 18 take music, 26 take art, 2 take both art and music. How many students in the class are
enrolled in either music or art?

Math:

Venn Diagram: Table: Tree:

2. In a class of 450 students, 300 are taking a mathematics course and 260 are taking a science course. If 140 of these
students are taking both courses, how many students are ​not​ taking either of these courses?

Math:
Venn Diagram: Table: Tree:

Sub-objectives, SWBAT (Sequenced from basic to complex): ​Content and Language objectives – action verbs such as
write, list, highlight, etc.)

- Create a Venn diagram, two way table, tree diagram to display the survey data
- Apply diagrams to create a mathematical rule

Key vocabulary: Materials/Technology Resources to be Used:

Set​: A set is a collection of things. You can have set of - Notebook

numerous things, such as items, or numbers. - Pencil
- Highlighters
Subset​: A set of which all the elements are contained in another - Pens
set. - Whiteboard
- Markers
Union​: Is when an element can be in EITHER set. “Or”
- Erasers
Intersection​: Is when a elements must be in BOTH sets. “And”

Complement​: Everything that is NOT in the set.

Additional Rule:​ Given P(A) and P(B) are not mutually

exclusive events, then the probability of P(A or B) = P(A) +
P(B) - P(A and B).

Opening (state objectives, connect to previous learning, and make ​RELEVENT​ to real life) ​ENGAGE/ “hook” the
students

Prior to Unit:

Have students fill out an online survey​:

1. During high school, did you play sports?

2. Do you currently drink coffee?

Day 1:

(2 min) Opening:

- (2 min) Have Directions posted on the board.

- Directions: Take out your notebook for today’s activity. In addition, if you have any highlighters, or
colored pens, I would suggest taking them out. Write the following learning objective into your
 notebook:

I can describe subsets of sample spaces with unions, intersections and complements.
- (1 min) Present question
- How to prove if discrimination has occurred?
- Give some examples
- (5 min) Have students grab a whiteboard and eraser and try to mathematically prove
how to find discrimination.

In Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

de
pe Day 1 Day 1
nd
Survey Survey
en
t - Show data survey from on spreadsheet and - Have a printout of survey results from
Pr share the slides of unit. class’s data.
ac - Have them answer these questions by using the - Students will answer the questions by hand.
tic survey: - Relate what they wrote to probability
e 1. What fraction of students have a conditional statements.
driver’s license?
2. What fraction of students work?
3. What fraction of students work AND
have a driver’s license?
4. What fraction of students work or have
a driver’s license?
5. What fraction of students do NOT have
a driver’s license?
6. Describe the data in the form of a venn
diagram.
- Relate the results to probability conditional
statements:
- P(DL) =
- P(W) =
- P(DL or W) =
- P(DL and W) =
- P(Not DL) =

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation/Check for Understanding…how are you going to know if EACH student
is ready to move onto independent practice? And how are you going to ​different​iate if they do not understand?

For Students who Need Extra Guidance

- Do each problem one at a time as a class, and have a set timer.

 - Or do the first problem and explain how it was found.

G Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

ui
de Day 1 Day 1
d
Venn Diagram Venn Diagram
Pr
ac - Have students draw a Venn Diagram of the - Draw a venn diagram.
tic conditional probability statements. - Share with classmates.
e - Share their boards as a class. - Common Misconceptions
- Find similarities and differences for each board. - Adding what’s in the middle to the
- Address any misconceptions if needed. other part of the two circles.

Two-Way Table Two-Way Table

- Have students make two seperate tables of the - Create two tables using the data from the
data from the Venn Diagram. Venn diagram.
- Have students create a new table that integrates - Create a two-way table by integrating the
the two previous tables to provide new two tables they created from the previous
information (a two way table). example.
- Provide a hint to students that you’re
combining this information from the Day 2
two tables and the venn diagram.
Probability Tree
- Label this as a two-way table.
- Create a diagram of data, labeling with
Day 2
branching factors.
Probability Tree - Add probability statements to their diagram.
- Reverse branching factors and add
- Have students create a diagram of data, labeling conditional probability statements.
with branching factors. - Calculate the probability for each branch.
- After completing the tree diagram, teacher adds
conditional probability statements to branching
tree.
- Have students reverse branching factors and add
conditional probability statements.
- Have students calculate the probability for each
branch.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation ​How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations during your instructional input/teaching?

For Students Who Need Extra Guidance​:.

- Pay attention specifically to these students.

 - 1st Hour: Eduardo, Michelle, Dayne, Gio, Jorge M
- 3rd Hour: Andy, Daniela, Williams, Nicki, Diana, Johnathon, Jackie
- 6th Hour: Liz, D’Angelo, Julian, Maleeya, Rosemary
- 8th Hour: Brandon, Amina, Madison, MelodyNavi, Matt, Celina, Mari

Inst Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

ruct
ion Day 2 Day 2
al
Four Corners Activity - Four Corners Activity
Inp
ut

- Go to the corner related to them.

- Have students get up and move to the corner
related to them.
- Count the number of students at each corner and
write the numbers on the board.
- Have students return to their seats.
- Have them answer the following questions:
1. Now find the probability that a student
has a driver’s license.
2. Find the probability that a student
works.
3. Find the probability that a student
works and has a driver’s license.
4. Find the probability that student works
or has a driver’s license.
- Write the answers on the board.
- Have them try to discover how the probabilities
are related mathematically.
- Have them use proper notation
- Does not have to be perfect, just correct
so we can adjust it.
- Have the group that got it, or was close to
getting it present their mathematical rule.
- P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)
- Label Union
- Label Intersection
- Return to seats.
- Answer the following questions:
1. Now find the probability that a
student has a driver’s license.
2. Find the probability that a student
works.
3. Find the probability that a student
works and has a driver’s license.
4. Find the probability that student
works or has a driver’s license.
- Try to find the mathematical rule that uses
all of these probabilities and write it in
proper notation.
- Learn about the proper notation for “or” and
“and.”
- Do Check-In
 - Provide Check-In

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation ​How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations?

For Students Who Need Extra Guidance:

- Have those who have finished early help explain those who have yet to finish.

Closing/Student Reflection/Real-life connections: ​What connections will students make to their real lives? What
essential questions will they reflect on in their closure of the lesson?

Once they finished the check-in, they should write a reflection at the bottom of what they learned, what made
sense and what did not make sense.