Kelsey O’Leary

Math 1030
The Iowa Caucuses Part 1

The Iowa Caucus, is a strong indicator for how a candidate will perform later in the voting
season. Candidates will have a stronger momentum going into following elections during the voting
season. If a candidate doesn't do well in the caucus, they're most likely to drop out in the next few days.
“Since 1972, the Iowa Caucuses have had a 43% success rate at predicting which Democrat, and a 50%
success rate at predicting which Republican will go on to win the nomination of their Political Party for
President at that party's national convention.” according to Wikipedia.

During the Iowa Caucuses, members of the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. state
of Iowa meet to select delegates who will vote for their party's nominee in the United States Presidential
election at the party convention. 1,681 precincts in 99 counties come together and vote in the caucus for
the party they are registered as a member.

The Democratic and Republican caucuses operate a little differently from one another. The key to
remember is in the Democratic caucus, the participants separate into groups based on their support of a
candidate. In the Republican caucus, participants simply cast a vote of support. The caucus process begins
with a Call to Order, then party leaders address general business, which includes electing of a chairman or
chairwoman, and a secretary to head the night’s proceedings. In both parties caucuses, sometimes the
candidates or a representative for them will speak briefly before it begins. I'm going to describe the
caucuses in brief steps.

During the Democratic process, the candidate is picked as the participants are asked to divide into
groups based on their preferred candidate. Each candidate’s preference group must reach viability, so
caucus participants are counted to set the number of supporters that candidate has. The groups that don't
meet the previously set viability threshold are then asked to realign, at this point group members can
either abandon their group and pick a different candidate, or recruit individuals from other groups to join
them. As soon as all the groups have met the established viability threshold, the number of delegates for
each group will be determined. Then groups elect their delegates and alternates from within the group. All
participants then reconvene and take a verbal vote to ratify their selection.

During the Republican caucus, participants are asked to cast their votes for their preferred
candidate. The 30 delegates that will represent Iowa at the Republican National Convention will be
divided proportionally to the statewide vote. Votes are then counted and the chair announces the number
of delegates that will attend the county convention after being elected by the precinct. The number is
predetermined by the county party according to the number of votes cast for the Republican candidate for
Governor in 2014, which was Gov. Terry Branstad.Then finally, the delegates nominated are determined
by which candidates receive the most votes, and are confirmed by all caucus participants.

The Political Parties in Iowa had been using caucuses for a long period. This has dated all the way
back to the 1800s. All the way up until 1907, this is how they would select their candidates. They tried a
Presidential Primary in 1916, however they decided to return to the caucus system a year later, in 1917.
The Primary election had higher costs and lower participation​.