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24/4/2019
CONCEPTS OF
STRUCTURAL CHANGE:
MAINSTREAM, HETERODOX
AND MARXIST
CONCEPTIONS AND THE
GREEK CRISIS
Stavros Mavroudeas
Dept. of Social Policy
Panteion University
E-mail: s.mavroudeas@panteion.gr
Conceptions of Structural Change & the 2008-10
Greek Crisis
Underconsumption TRPF
Greek disease
& financialisation
Marxist Yes, internal ‘deep’ structural Productive yes disproportionality no, twin
dimension problems (systemic relations deficits are
crises) results
Type of explanation
CONJECTURAL STRUCTURAL
[emphasis on policy errors [emphasis on the structure of
(national or supranational)] the economy]
WEAK STRONG
Mainstream STRUCTURAL STRUCTURAL
explanations [emphasis on mid-term
[emphasis on long-term
features (neoliberalism,
systemic features]
EMU)]
Radical Marxist
explanations explanations
MAINSTREAM EXPLANATIONS
▪ 3 versions:
1) a special Greek historical accident (Greek ‘disease’) (EC(2010),
(2012), Gibson, Hall & Tavlas (2012), greekeconomistsforreform.com
(Azariadis (2010), Dellas (2011), Ioannides (2012), Meghir, Vayanos &
Vettas (2010))
2) the Greek ‘disease’ exacerbated by EMU’s unrectifiable structural
deficiencies (not-OCA) (Feldstein (2010), Krugman (2012))
3) a ‘middle-of-the-road’ blend: the Greek disease and EMU’s
deficiencies are rectifiable (De Grauwe (2010), Lane (2012), Botta
(2012 ))
RADICAL EXPLANATIONS
▪ 4 versions:
1) Inequalities, latent undeconsumption and financialisation (Tsakalotos
& Laskos (2013), Varoufakis (2012))
2) Disinflation and financialisation a-la-Minsky (Argitis (2013))
3) Class struggle and financialisation (Milios & Sotiropoulos (2013))
4) Financial expropriation (Lapavitsas (2012))
MARXIST EXPLANATIONS
▪ 3 versions:
1) TRPF (Maniatis & Passas (2015))
2) TRPF and imperialist exploitation (Mavroudeas & Paitaridis (2015))
3) TRPF and underconsumption (Androulakis, Economakis & Markaki
(2015))
• Behind this eclecticism hide versions (or combinations) of the three previously
delineated explanations.
• The analytical backbone of the mainstream explanations is the TDH:
FD → CAD
▪ They consider the Greek case as simply a debt crisis
• Augmented version:
↑ CAD
▪ Keynesian argument (vs N-C Ricardian Equivalence). Mainstreamers surpassed
this, with some grudges
▪ Greek TDH empirical studies do not verify it or at least offer mixed and
inconclusive results: Vamvoukas (1997) confirms vs Katrakilidis & Trachanas (2011),
Nikiforos et al. (2013): confirm for the pre-accession to the EMU period (1960-80), reject for
the post-accession period (1981-2007), where the opposite holds (trade, and thus current
account, deficit has caused increasing FD).
• Wages are posited as the cause for both FD and CAD.
• They could be other analytical choices: FD can be rightfully attributed to upper-
class’ notorious tax evasion (↓ public revenues) and cronyism (↑public
expenditure). Mainstreamers, for obvious reasons to the supposedly high wages
causation.
• Well-established critiques of this argument:
(1) (nominal) ULC is a non-convincing measure of competitiveness.
(2) Kaldor paradox: competitiveness depends not only on costs
competitiveness but also on qualitative factors (structural competitiveness).
(3) ‘Race to the bottom’: A decrease in wages aiming to restore
competitiveness presupposes that rival economies will maintain their wages stable
or, at least, will reduce them less.
(4) Greek wages have been constantly lagging behind productivity (which increased
faster than that of Germany). Thus, real ULC (i.e. the wage share) have been falling
continuously for several decades.
• Mainstreamers’ wider problems:
(a) Totally underestimate the role of the 2007-8 capitalist crisis (unanimously
considered as a mere financial crisis without origins and causes in the sphere of real
accumulation). However, if this crisis is so significant and lengthy as it appears to
be, it must surely have some basis in the sphere of production.
(b) Consider the Greek crisis as independent of the 2007-8 crisis. The 2007-8
crisis has only an exogenous impact on the Greek economy by worsening the
international economic environment and setting off pessimist expectations about
sovereign debts.
(c) Fail to appreciate the fundamental structural dimensions of the
problem and relegate it either to policy errors and/or to weak structural origins.
Failure to appreciate the fundamental structural dimensions
o 1st perspective: considers the Greek case as a national specificity created by bad
policies
o 2nd perspective: recognizes a weak structural cause concerning the sphere of
circulation (i.e. how the common currency is related to diverse national
economies
o 3rd perspective: also attributes the structural problems to the sphere of circulation
(with the additional argument that, contrary to the second perspective, these
problems can be surpassed) and neglects the sphere of production
140
Surplus Value
120
Unproductive Activities
100
80
60
40
20
A constant rise on the unproductive activities which are estimated as the difference between
surplus value and net operating surplus (net profits).
Figure 2. Productivity and Wage
80
Productivity
70
60
50
40
30
Real Wage
20
10
0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
A vigorous increase in productivity for the period 1960 - 1973. After 1973, the growth of productivity slows down whilst during
the decade of 1980s it remains stagnant. In the beginning of the 1990s productivity rises again till the middle of 2000s when it
starts to decline bearing similarities with the 1970s’. The real wage for the whole period it follows productivity but it never
gets higher.
Figure 3. The rate of surplus value
2,4
2,2
1,8
Rate of Surplus Value
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
An increase in the rate of s-v during the period 1960 - 2009 which is characterized by ups and downs. During the 1960s it
increases. At the beginning of 1970s till the early 1980s declines and then it increases again. Finally, at the middle of the 2000s, it
and then it sharply drops indicating capitalists’ inability to extract more s-v under the given socio-political conditions.
Figure 4. The value composition of capital
10
Composition of Capital
9
2
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Figure 4 depicts the evolution of the value composition of capital (C/V) as this is captured by the ratio of gross fixed capital
stock (C) to variable capital (V). It steadily increases for almost the whole period. But at the beginning of the 2000s it stagnates;
which can possibly be attributed to the ‘deindustrialization’ of the Greek economy with the massive escape of Greek
manufacturing enterprises to the East and the increased penetration of EU imports.
Figure 5. The general PR
0,5
0,45
0,4
0,35
0,3
0,25 General PR
0,2
0,15
Figure 5 depicts the evolution of the general PR and from its trajectory we can discriminate three phases before the onset of
current crisis. The first one is the period 1960 - 1973 where the general PR is at a high level though with a small decline. The
second one is the period of crisis (1973 - 1985) when the general PR falls dramatically. The third period is that of capitalist
restructurings (1985 – 2009) when the general PR displays a slight recover and then remains stagnant.
III. Structural reforms and the issue of the productive model in the
Greek crisis
0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
source: AMECO
Troika’s Economic Adjustment Programmes and the issue of the failed productive model
▪ The guilty silence about the failure of the current Greek productive model: a
product of the country’s participation in the European integration
▪ A conjunctural understanding of the Greek crisis in order to hide its systemic
origins
▪ A belated recognition of a limited structural nature: institutional failure (to
implement the EAPs and the ‘last soviet economy’ stupidity)
▪ A clumsy industrial policy: simply revamp the existing failed productive model
The Greek EAPs: a problematic modification of IMF’s SAPs
❑Longer (4 years+): out of necessity because of systematic failures
❑More front-loaded (at the insistence of EU (technically because of EU treaties
clauses [Maastricht, SGP, 6-pack], politically because EU wanted more urgently
than IMF a solution in order to avoid expansion of the problems to the whole EMU)
❑No initial debt restructuring (because both the IMF and the EU feared a global
contagion)
❑No exchange rate devaluation mechanism (as Greece belongs to the EMU)
❑No tailor-made (accommodative) monetary policy (as dictated by the
‘expansionary austerity doctrine’ because it is set by the ECB)
❑EAPs’ loans finance only the FD and bank recapitalization (whereas traditional
IMF programmes financed the whole CAD, Pissani-Ferry et al (2013), because no
classical b-o-p crisis was considered possible in the EMU)
❑Dual conditionality (IMF and EU): each institution proceeds according to its own
separate standards
➢ The backbone of the EAPs is the sustainability of debt (DSA) as it is their
immediate and more pressing problem (fear of contagion to the rest of the EZ
and the world, initial lack of a EU mechanism (hastily designed EFSF and later
ESM)).
➢ The structural reforms play second fiddle as a supportive mechanism. It was
elevated after the failures of the first two EAPs as a deus-ex-machina. However,
it is a very problematic (see political economic problems) and long-run
mechanism.
➢ The estimations about a ‘growth dividend’ coming from structural reforms
fail systematically because of analytical and empirical errors.
➢ Only belatedly there was an incoherent talk about a new productive model and
some form of industrial policy
➢ EAPs’ vision of a new productive model: a renovation of the already existing
one (dictated by the European Integration)
➢ Industrial policy: weak, horizontal, following the market and around ‘hand-outs’
(NSRF, infamous ‘development laws’)
▪ EAPs’ vision of a new productive model