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By Richard B. Alley1, Kerry A. Emanuel2, environmental forecasting, from forest-fire Weather forecasts from leading numeri-
Fuqing Zhang3 smoke to bird migrations. cal weather prediction centers such as
W
eather forecasting provides nu- New England coast of the United States Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National
merous societal benefits, from without warning, killing more than 600 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
extreme weather warnings to people. Since then, death tolls have dropped (NOAA’s) National Centers for Environmen-
agricultural planning. In recent dramatically even though coastal popula- tal Prediction (NCEP) have also been im-
decades, advances in forecast- tions have swelled. Many people proving rapidly: A modern 5-day
ing have been rapid, arising from and organizations contributed forecast is as accurate as a 1-day
improved observations and models, and to this improvement. But, as the forecast was in 1980, and useful
better integration of these through data as- American Meteorological Society forecasts now reach 9 to 10 days
similation and related techniques. Further celebrates its 100th anniversary, into the future (1). Predictions
TOMORROW’S
improvements are not yet constrained by the improvement in forecasting EARTH have improved for a wide range
limits on predictability. Better forecasting, stands out. Modern 72-hour pre- Read more articles of hazardous weather conditions,
in turn, can contribute to a wide range of dictions of hurricane tracks are online at scim.ag/ including hurricanes, blizzards,
more accurate than 24-hour fore- TomorrowsEarth flash floods, hail, and tornadoes,
1
Department of Geosciences, and Earth and Environmental casts were 40 years ago (see the with skill emerging in predictions
Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University,
figure), giving sufficient time for evacu- of seasonal conditions.
University Park, PA 16802, USA. 2Department of Earth,
Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute ations and other preparations that save Investment in weather forecasting pays
of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. 3Department lives and property. Similar improvements large dividends, ranging from 3 to 10 times
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, and Center on in forecasting tropical cyclone tracks have the costs (2). A 2009 study, for example,
Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, been achieved by other leading agencies found that the value of weather forecasts
USA. Email: rba6@psu.edu worldwide. to U.S. households is US$31.5 billion, from
Published by AAAS
INSIGHTS | P E R S P E C T I V E S
Advances in weather forecasting are around the tropics over 30 to 90 days, af- pressure interacting with the detailed
helping to improve environmental forecast, fecting rain, wind, clouds, air pressure, the coastal configuration. Dedicated surge fore-
for example, of wildfire activity. onset and demise of summer monsoons, casting driven by more-accurate weather
and more, with important agricultural predictions can fine-tune warnings.
public expenditures of just US$3.4 billion and other implications. Weather prediction Summertime sea-ice loss is opening the
and private expenditures of US$1.7 billion models have now shown predictive skills for Arctic to shipping, recreation, resource ex-
(3). U.S. adults obtain weather forecasts at a the MJO phenomena up to 5 weeks (5). traction, and other activities. Seasonal sea-
rate of 300 billion times per year, from nu- In parallel with improving forecasts, ice regrowth thus presents dangers for an
merous sources (3). communication of the growing wealth of increasing number of people. Recent work
weather data has expanded greatly, en- shows bright prospects for accurate sea-ice
WHY FORECASTS ARE IMPROVING abling a timely flow of ever more detailed forecasts extending more than a month
Key developments in observation, numeri- and accurate information to a rich diver- into the future, if the best available fore-
cal modeling, and data assimilation have sity of users. Only a few decades ago, one cast systems are improved by reducing sys-
enabled these advances in forecast skill. had to wait for the morning newspaper or tematic model errors and advancing data
Improved observations, particularly by sat- the evening news to get the latest forecast, assimilation (9).
ellite remote sensing of the atmosphere and and warnings of imminent arrival of severe Recently, many parts of the world have
surface, provide valuable global information weather were delivered mostly by flags, si- experienced high wildfire activity, degrading
many times per day. Much faster and more rens, and police bullhorns. Today, detailed, air quality. In the United States, NOAA is de-
powerful computers, in conjunction with geographically targeted weather informa- veloping a coupled weather, fire. and smoke
improved understanding of atmospheric tion is available at the touch of a finger on forecast system” to provide timely warn-
500
it to maintain consistency with incoming Corrected 25 January 2019. See full text.
data, the resulting physically consistent 400
predictions greatly improve on simpler
techniques. Such data assimilation, often 300
done using four-dimensional variational
minimization, ensemble Kalman filters, or 200
hybridized techniques, has revolutionized
forecasting. 100
Sensitivity to initial conditions limits
long-term forecast skill: Details of weather
cannot be predicted accurately, even in 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
principle, much beyond 2 weeks. But
weather forecasts are not yet strongly con-
strained by this limit, and the increase in TOWARD BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL and to aviation and other affected groups.
forecast skill has shown no sign of ending FORECASTS Weather forecasting also plays an im-
(4, 5). Sensitivity to initial conditions varies Weather-forecast improvement is the es- portant role in renewable energy. Balanc-
greatly in space and time, and an important sential first step toward better predictions ing electrical grids requires forecasts of the
but largely unsung advance in weather pre- of many weather-related environmental availability of sun, wind, and river flow, and
diction is the growing ability to quantify the phenomena. For example, over 40 million forecasts of energy demand, a large part of
forecast uncertainty by using large ensem- people in the United States—far more than which is driven by weather.
bles of numerical forecasts that each start previously believed—live where floods are Weather causes many changes in ani-
from slightly different but equally plausible expected more than once per century (6), mal behavior, which can be anticipated by
GRAPHIC: N. DESAI/SCIENCE (DATA) NOAA/NHC
initial states, together with perturbations in and the global population in flood-prone weather forecasters. For example, forecasts
model physics. basins has more than doubled over the past of weather-driven bird migrations can now
Several features of the weather sys- 30 years (7). Improvements in river fore- be used to reduce collisions with buildings,
tem are more persistent than day-to-day casting, leveraging better weather forecasts, airplanes, and wind turbines; inform moni-
weather, allowing accurate predictions can provide great value predicting flooding toring efforts; and engage the public (10).
further into the future, from subseasonal from hurricanes (8) and other sources. Modeling centers are increasingly in-
to seasonal, annual, and interannual time Coastal storm surge, so important in tegrating efforts across time scales, from
scales and beyond, with even greater scope events such as Superstorm Sandy, is in- short-term weather to climate. There has
for improvement. For example, the Madden- creasing with sea-level rise, but depends been rapid progress in forecasting at the
Julian Oscillation (MJO) moves eastward sensitively on tides, wind, and atmospheric subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales (5),
which was legally mandated in the United that such investments will be repaid many QUANTUM SIMULATION
States (to NOAA) in 2017. times over in savings to the economy.
Climate models have shown skill in pro-
jecting many changes, including global
mean surface temperature and the rise of
Operational weather forecasting has long
relied on the results of academic research
and on the pipeline of well-educated gradu-
Transport
absolute humidity with the associated in-
crease in especially intense precipitation
ates. Improved integration with colleges
and universities, providing smoother career with strong
when conditions are favorable. The mod-
els, however, remain challenged to project
regional shifts and quantify uncertainties.
tracks and improved incentives, can help
bright young researchers bring their talents
to the enterprise.
interactions
Improvements in understanding physical
processes and representing them in models
Great progress has been made in com-
municating forecasts to diverse audiences.
Motion of spin and charge
that will benefit weather forecasts can also However, the ability to quantify forecast is explored with cold-atom
help climate modeling (11). uncertainty in probabilistic terms has argu-
ably outrun the ability to communicate such
quantum simulations
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS forecasts of uncertainty. This feeds into the
To more closely approach the limits of pre- broader societal challenge of making fore- By Jean-Philippe Brantut
dictability for weather and associated haz- casts actionable. Even a perfect forecast
H
ards at various temporal and spatial scales, may be viewed as a failure if some people ow do quantum particles move
the weather forecasting community can strat- ignore it, choosing, for example, to stay in when they are interacting with
Published by AAAS
Advances in weather prediction
Richard B. Alley, Kerry A. Emanuel and Fuqing Zhang
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