The 

Weis 
Men 
PRESENT 
 

WEIS’ YEAR-ROUND MONEY SAVING 

SOLUTION 
USING THE 
WEATHER 

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 Introduction
The Weis Men is a group of four highly skilled and qualified meteorology students
at The Pennsylvania State University planning on helping Weis save money throughout
the year using our meteorological knowledge. Due to our combined 13 years of
college-level meteorology education at Penn State, we are knowledgeable about all
types of weather and how they impact businesses, such as Weis. We have specific
knowledge about winter weather and severe weather, which can be very impactful for
Weis’ stores.

When writing this report, Jacob Morse took the role as the writer and manager,
Kyle Munro focused on the industry and business side, Joseph Speir looked into the
weather and meteorology aspects of this report, and Simon Wachholz was the model
developer and winter weather expert.

With our extensive experience in the meteorological field and after assessing
Weis’ financial reports, we have created two different weather indices that we believe
will help save Weis thousands of dollars each year. One of these indices will be used
during the spring, summer, and fall months to determine if any weather will impact the
crops that Weis buys from local farms in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. The
other index will be used during the winter months to determine how winter weather,
specifically snowstorms, will impact each Weis store location.

In this report, we will first outline how weather forecasts have drastically
improved throughout history allowing meteorologists to predict the weather with better
accuracy. This information demonstrates that we will be able to forecast the weather
accurately and provide Weis with valuable information that will improve their company
and save them money. Then, we will outline the business side of our services for Weis
and how we will make Weis money. Next, we explain our two indices that we created for
Weis and what weather variables go into creating each one. Finally, we will detail the
contract of our services.

This index will:

1. Enable Weis stores to make impact based decisions on adverse weather
2. Reduce advertising costs when weather impacts consumer habits
3. Allow Weis to adjust prices based on consumer influx and produce costs

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 Meteorological Section
A common issue in predicting sales in terms of weather is how well
meteorologists can predict the weather. Within the last decade, resources and
technology in meteorology have all improved to make better and more accurate
forecasts.

Meteorologists have a vast amount of data sources at their disposal. From land,
to sea, to space, there is a near-constant feed of weather variables being sent to
stations. Automated Surface Observing Systems, or ASOS provide measurements,
such as temperatures and precipitation, to the National Weather Service. With over 900
ASOS sites in the United States providing information every minute of the day,
meteorologists have more accurate initial conditions to use in their forecasting. Doppler
radar also provide weather data on land. Doppler radar stations will send out radio
waves are varying vertical displacement in order to construct a vertical profile of any
precipitation or clouds. If any of the radio waves are returned to the station in an echo,
then meteorologists can use that echo to determine the type of precipitation and other
weather phenomena. Another important part of Doppler radar is its ability to determine if
winds and weather are moving towards or away from the station, helping to see how the
weather is moving in the forecast area. Dual-Pol is an additional component of Doppler
radar that emits radio waves in both a vertical and horizontal orientation, and there are
over 120 stations with this equipment. Having this extra dimension allow meteorologists
to get an even better picture of the type of precipitation that is falling. Over the ocean,
buoys are positioned to find nor’easters and hurricanes before they make landfall. Like
traditional weather stations on land, weather buoys record similar variables like
temperature, pressure, and the wind speed and direction. The data from these weather
buoys are then sent to a weather station to be used.

Up in the air, commercial airplanes can record weather data from the time they
take off to the time they land. Meteorologists also send up weather balloons from 800
global locations twice a day, at 00Z and 12Z. To record data, a radiosonde is attached
to the weather balloon that measures pressure, temperature, wind speed, and humidity
as it rises through the atmosphere. If at any point there is a missing piece in weather
data between all of these sources, satellites will likely fill the gap. There are two types of
weather satellites that provide data from space, polar-orbiting and geostationary. The
most recent geostationary satellite, GOES-16, can create images with both high
temporal and spatial resolution using 16 spectral bands. The bands are calibrated to
visible and infrared wavelengths. Individual bands can be used for several purposes,

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such as measuring cloud formation, surface temperature, and vegetation health. The
Advanced Baseline Imager in GOES-16 can create images at three different resolutions
at three different intervals. Every 15 minutes, an image of the Earth is produced on
full-disk mode. Every 5 minutes, a continuous disk mode image is made. Also every 5
minutes, an image centered on the continental US is made. Smaller, mesoscale
phenomena, like thunderstorms, can be captured every 60 seconds.

More accurate data is not the only essential piece to a better forecast. Weather
models that take the data as an initial condition and create a forecast are improving just
as much as the data. The Global Forecast System, or GFS, now has a greater
resolution and can make forecasts that reach further in time. Grid points spaced closer
together can find weather at a smaller scale. The grid points in the GFS model are
separated by 18 miles and cover the entire globe. Forecasters can use this to predict as
far as 16 days into the future, but the resolution of the model decreases as the forecast
time increases. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, or HRRR, works on a much
smaller scale. This model focuses on detailed short term forecasts of storms, clouds,
and winds. Along with better data of approaching storms, the HRRR can send out
watches and warnings much earlier. The HRRR produces images every hour at 3-km
resolution and uses radar data provided every 15 minutes to produce spatially detailed
images. Aside from individual models, meteorologists also use ensemble forecasting
that takes multiple runs of multiple models to gain more confidence in forecasts and
ignore outlying data.

In order to process all of the data with more detailed models, meteorologists
need computers and computing power than can handle the quick calculations that are
needed. Based on trends in history, observations, and projections, Gordon Moore
introduced Moore’s Law. The law is the idea that the number of transistors in a dense
circuit will double every two years, improving computing power. The original theory was
that transistors would double every year, and now they will double every two and a half
years. The doubling rate is expected to continue to slow, founder Gordon Moore
expects it to stop in the next decade. The law is not to be treated as a natural law, but
as a trend. The following graph provides a visual representation of Moore’s law and how
specific advancements in technology adhere to that idea.

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 Supercomputers are used to take massive amounts of data and crunch them
through an equation in a quick amount of time to create a forecast or prediction. Current
computers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration can complete 2.8
quadrillion calculations in a single second. NOAA announced in January of 2016 that
they had plans to add four times as many supercomputers to their system.

With better computers, better data, and better models all combined into the
process of forecasting, meteorologists can make forecasts that are nearly 100%
accurate. Forecasts that range from one to three days in advance are nearly as
accurate as same day forecasts. The paths of hurricanes and nor’easters can be
accurately depicted three days before the storm arrives. This gives time for
meteorologists to warn the public and allow the proper safety measures to be taken.

Snow is one of the driving factors of sales in the winter for Weis. Since Weis
stores are mainly focused in the northeast, specifically around Pennsylvania, the
amount of snow an area can get will vary and vary sales accordingly. In order to see the
degree to which these would vary, The Weis Men looked at total snowfall in the winter
months of December through February, and calculated five year averages for cities in
the range of Weis stores.

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Total Snowfall for Binghamton, NY. The city is in the northern boundary of Weis stores. Average snowfall
was around 60 inches.

Total Snowfall for Philadelphia, PA. The city is in the eastern boundary of Weis stores. Average snowfall
was around 20 inches.

Total Snowfall for Pittsburgh, PA. The city is in the western boundary of Weis stores. Average snowfall
was around 30 inches.

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Total Snowfall for State College, PA. The city is in the upper central region of Weis stores. Average
snowfall was around 55 inches.

Total Snowfall for Richmond, VA. The city is in the southern boundary of Weis stores. Average snowfall
was around 10 inches.

Total Snowfall for Baltimore, MD. The city is in the lower central region of Weis stores. Average snowfall
was around 20 inches.

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 From the total snowfall graphs, the northern region of Weis stores will experience
more snow during the winter months and the amount of snow will decrease while
moving south. This will require some variable in the index to account for different
experiences of snowfall.

When snow is not a factor for business anymore, other severe weather can drive
sales. In the summer, severe weather and heavy precipitation can become concerns in
the grocery industry. The following tables show the average number of thunderstorms in
a year, the average annual precipitation, and other forms of severe weather.

Summer variable table for Virginia. Thunderstorm data from 1999-2008. Richmond is the most relevant
city and still acts as the southern boundary.

Summer variable table for New Jersey. Thunderstorm data from 1999-2008. Cities act as the new eastern
border for variable consideration.

Summer variable table for Maryland. Thunderstorm data from 1999-2008. Baltimore is the most relevant
city.

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Summer variable table for Pennsylvania. Thunderstorm data from 1999-2008. Erie acts as the northern
border. Harrisburg acts as the center point. Pittsburgh acts as the western border.

Summer variable table for New York. Thunderstorm data from 1999-2008. Binghamton is the northern
boundary. New York is mainly in consideration for the crops aspect.

From the tables, the southern and eastern portion of the Weis stores should
experience less severe weather based on the average days from thunderstorms and
tornadoes. All cities in consideration experience the same amount of average
precipitation.

Weather will not only have a direct impact on sales, but an indirect impact as well
on transported agriculture. In the Northeast United States, fruits are at a risk from the
extending frost period in spring. The extension comes from a longer period of warmer
winter weather and earlier spring temperatures. As spring weather begins earlier, rains
will occur earlier and last longer, postponing the planting period. In the summer, warmer
temperatures and a longer frost-free period promote double cropping. When farmers

9
double crop, they plant two different crops in the same field, which stresses the land
and puts the yield at risk. The warmer temperatures along with more intense summer
storms will increase nutrient loss and gaseous emissions from animal manure. Drought
is also becoming an increasing issue in the Northeast. Corn and soybeans are expected
to have lower yield and more stress from the higher temperatures. Fruits in orchards
could see a change in size in the drier conditions. The worst of the drought conditions
could be seen from Maine to southern New England, reaching down into New York.

Weis already accounts for weather in its sales, but weather is constantly
unpredictable. As we head into future decades, weather is expected to change even
more. The following graph shows the change in winter storms per decade. Weis stores
are concentrated mainly in the middle latitudes, with some reaching into the lower
portion of the high latitudes.

From the graph, winter storms have been increasing in occurrence in recent
decades, with the most recent decade seeing the highest frequency. The storms are
also expected to increase in intensity, with a steady trend being shown from the graph
of more intense storms becoming the new normal. The biggest impact from these trends
has been seen in the northern and eastern United States. The Northeast will also see
an increase in precipitation. The following graph shows the trend of heavy precipitation
in the United States per decade.

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 The bar graph shows a general increase in heavy precipitation per decade. The
2000s have seen the highest number of extreme events. The greatest effects are
expected to be felt in the Northeast, Midwest, and Upper Great Plains. Flooding events
are expected to increase in the Northeast and Midwest as well.

When incorporating weather into the index and business, it is imperative to

include how meteorology has changed and how it will continue to change. Models and
forecasts have come a long way in developing, and as the climate is expected to
change in the coming decades, weather is becoming more important than ever.

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 This graphic shows the average forecast error for hurricane tracks from the
National Hurricane Center (NHC). Since 1970, the 3 day forecast error for a hurricane’s
project path has decreased from 450 miles to less than 100 miles. In 1970 a forecast for
a hurricane landfall would have been from Richmond, VA to Boston, MA. Today it’s the
difference between Philadelphia and New York City. Today a 5-day hurricane track
forecast is as accurate as a 2-day forecast in 1990. This shows a significant
improvement in forecasting skill and accuracy.

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 Business Section
Weis has 205 stores mainly spread through the North East and the Mid-Atlantic
regions. Their fiscal year runs roughly from January through December. According to
the 10-K report, their total sales for the 2017 fiscal year were $3,466,807,000. From
that, 30% or about $1,040,042,100 was from fresh food sales, 57% or 1,983,013,604
was from center store sales, and 3% or $104,004,210 was from fuel sales.

The total cost for 2017 was $2,540,348,000. To break that cost down,
$76,210,440 was from shipping costs, $31,000,000 was from advertising costs,
$17,875,700 was from spoilage, and $510,020,400 was from labor. After all of the costs,
Weis saw a gross profit of $926,459,000 in 2017.

After close consideration we made some conservative assumptions about the

amount that we could possible save Weis using a weather index. We believe that we
can reduce spoilage costs by 5% and transportation costs by 1%, then we would be
able to save Weis $893,785 and $762,104.40 respectively. This would be done by
using the weather index to better plan truck routes around snow storms, and adjust
shipments of goods based on projected volumes of customers which is affected by the
weather. By increasing the shipments for the days leading up to a storm and decreasing
them for the days during the storm, we will be able to both increase sales and decrease
spoilage. By using the index to create a more efficient labor scheduling system and
scheduling employees based on the weather (i.e. less during a storm and more right
before a storm), we believe that we can save weis a conservative 0.1% of their labor
costs which would be $510,020,40. We believe we can also save Weis on their
advertising costs as well. When the public gets word of a winter storm, they are going
to flock to the grocery store regardless of whether there are sales or not. So, Weis will
be able to decrease their advertising in the days leading up snow storms and will not
have to spend money on printing ads or commercials on radio and TV. Assuming that
the weather affects the business for 14 days out of the year (State College gets an inch
of snow or more on an average of 13 days per year), and with the days leading up to
the storm we can round up to 14 to keep it conservative. That would be about 4% of the
year. So we are estimating a savings in the advertising section of $1,240,000. This
brings the total projected savings to ​$3,405,905.80​.

Other ways that the weather index can help the business is through asset
management. If Weis owns portable generators, we can notify them of severe weather
ahead of time and where they should set up the generators ahead of time in case of a

13
power outage. Weis as also started same day grocery delivery service which would also
be affected in the event of inclement weather. Fuel deliveries should also be increased
ahead of winter storms due to the high demand.

Seeing that most of the things that have an effect on business revolve around
winter weather, we will have an index dedicated to the winter season and another
dedicated to the growing season in the summer that affects the fresh food sales and
profit. The following quotes were pulled from the 10-K report “The Company’s industry is
highly competitive. If the Company is unable to compete effectively, the Company’s
financial condition and results of operations could be materially affected.” We believe
that using this weather index will be able to help Weis compete more effectively which
would positively affect operations. “The trade area of the Company is located within a
region and is subject to the economic, social and climate variables of that region.” Using
a weather index like the one proposed will help to partially eliminate the climate and
weather variables that negatively impact business.

We (The Weis Men) plan to split the total income minus whatever costs are
associated with the business, such as office space and other business needs, evenly.

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 Winter Snowstorm/Winter Weather Index
(used from November through April)
Winter storms are the most impactful type of weather for Weis in the winter.
Winter storms can cause more people to come into the stores before the storm to stock
up on food and supplies. This increased demand can force Weis to have more
employees on staff during these times. However, during the winter storm, many people
won’t be on the roads and coming into the stores, so sales on these days will be very
low. Additionally, Weis stores can close down if snowstorms are impactful enough, and
if they don’t shut down, employees may have troubles driving to the store for work.
Winter storms can also impact how shipments are made to the stores since trucks may
be stuck on the highways. The size of the storm is very important in this case because a
nuisance level snowstorm event won’t impact sales as much as a major nor’easter.

When creating this winter weather index, we chose five weather variables that we
thought would be the most important in determining how impactful a winter storm will be
on a specific Weis store location.
1. Forecasted Liquid Water Equivalent (weighted 50%)
The amount of forecasted precipitation was deemed most important
because the quantity of forecasted precipitation is a fairly good indicator
alone of how bad conditions will be. For example, if an inch of frozen
precipitation falls, that will have significant impacts regardless of whether it
is snow, ice, or a combination thereof.
2. Bufkit Precipitation Type (25%)
Precipitation type also impacts the severity of northeast winter storms.
BUFKIT provides forecasts about the upper air profiles. Sleet and freezing
rain are more impactful than snow, and obviously more impactful than
plain rain. This gives insights about the temperature, wind, and moisture.
BUFKIT forecasts the thickness, or the depth of certain layers of the
atmosphere, to determine precipitation type. Lower thicknesses are
correlated with lower temperatures. As the layers of the atmosphere
thicken, the likelihood for mixed precipitation increases. As thickness
increases in all layers of the atmosphere, the precipitation type is most
likely to be plain rain.

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 BUFKIT predicts the 1000-850mb and 850-700mb thicknesses and plots
them on the above nomogram to forecast precipitation type that we will then input
into the index calculations.

3. Precipitation Duration (weighted 15%)

Duration is important to consider in the grocery industry because a
long-lasting event would deter people from venturing out and buying
groceries until after the storm is over. Even if it is a light intensity event
and road conditions are not terrible, people may still rather wait until after
the storm moves out to go to the grocery store. A longer lasting storm will
ultimately cause a greater disruption than a quick-moving storm.
4. Daily Surface High Temperature (weighted 5%)
Surface temperatures are also important in predicting road conditions.
Temperatures hovering right around freezing will likely allow pretreated
roads to remain mainly wet, limiting shopping impacts. Temperatures in
the 20s or teens would lead to icier or snow-covered roads. This was only
weighted 5% because precipitation amount, type, and duration cause
larger impacts on road conditions.

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 5. Surface Wind (weighted 5%)
Wind would likely not be a major factor on a regular basis, but if winds are
strong enough to knock out power, grocery stores would have to prepare
to save perishable items or close until power is restored.

No non-meteorological data will be inputted into the index. Other variables, such
as day of the week, holidays, timing, etc. are harder to objectively predict their impacts
on shopping habits. Considering holidays might be useful because a shopper might be
more willing to drive to Weis in a snowstorm to buy last minute items for Thanksgiving
dinner than during a non-holiday timeframe. However, trying to incorporate the varying
effects of a snowstorm the week of Thanksgiving as opposed to a Monday in the middle
of January would be too dependent on the whim of a shopper and not the given weather
forecast. Therefore, to remain objective in the index’s aim to address the impacts of
weather on Weis, only meteorological variables were used.

Our proprietary equation takes weather data that relates to these five variables
and outputs an index number on a scale from zero to one hundred. A value of zero on
our index indicates that winter weather will not impact the Weis store location in any
way on that day. A value of one hundred on our index indicates that winter weather will
severely impact the Weis store location. We have separated the numbers from zero to
one hundred into seven different levels of impact: extreme impact (91-100), major
impact (76-90), significant impact (61-75), high impact (46-60), moderate impact
(31-45), low impact (16-30), and no/minimal impact (0-15).

A detailed description of what each level means for the Weis location is
described on the index. Included in this description is:
1. Expected road conditions
2. Expected influx of customers before the storm
3. Expectations of any potential store closure
4. A suggestion of how much the store should increase their staff before the storm
to account for the increase in customers
5. Expectations on how many employees may not be able to drive to work during
and/or after the storm

On each day from November through April, we will release via email the index at
8am Eastern Time to each of Weis’ 205 store locations. Included on each index page is
the index value for the day it was sent out (day one) as well as the index value for days
two through five. This provides each Weis store with information about how the weather
will impact their business five days out which is very important when a winter storm is in

17
the forecast. Managers of the Weis location will be able to plan ahead before the storm
and make the appropriate staffing adjustments by looking at our index. Additionally, our
index is easy to interpret with color-coded levels so that store managers can quickly
gain information about how the weather will impact their business.

Tailoring this information to each store location is very important because a

winter storm can have significant impacts on a few of Weis’ 205 store locations, but the
storm might not impact some of the other store locations.

By assessing the scope of Weis’ 205 store locations, we determined that a winter
storm will have different impacts on different regions that Weis’ stores are located. For
instance, a 6” snowfall will be more impactful in Philadelphia and Washington D.C. than
in central Pennsylvania due to the population density and the climatology of the different
regions. Central Pennsylvania receives more snow each year than Philadelphia and
Washington D.C., and the people that live in Central Pennsylvania are more used to a
storm of this magnitude and have the infrastructure in place to deal with storms of this
magnitude. Therefore, we divided the Weis store location area into three regions which
are pictured on the map below. Zone 1 (blue) includes more mountainous areas,
whereas zone 2 (yellow) includes most of New Jersey, the Philadelphia area, and the
western counties of Virginia. Zone 3 (red) includes the metro areas of Baltimore and
Washington D.C., as well as the rest of Virginia.

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 We will take the index value that our equation outputs and multiply it by a certain
number (1, 1.3, or 1.5) depending on the region that the store is in. This will allow the
index value to be more accurate for each store that it is released to, based on its
location.
1. Zone 1 = Multiply by 1
2. Zone 2 = Multiply by 1.3
3. Zone 3 = Multiply by 1.5
If there was a case that the index value exceeded 100 due to these region multipliers,
the index value would be capped at 100.

Since the index is broken up by day, a storm impacting the region over a 2-day
period may show lower index values than a storm all occurring within one day. This is
generally not an issue since a storm occurring over 2-days (ie. overnight), won’t be as
impactful as there are fewer shoppers and deliveries overnight regardless of weather
conditions.

Data for each weather variable will be taken from the 00z model runs of both the
European and GFS weather models. This ensures that the most updated data is

19
inputted to compute index values. Their forecasts will be averaged to obtain a forecast
to input into the index calculator. Data will be obtained from weather.us.

A computer program will be coded to obtain the forecasted variables at each

Weis location to create unique index values for each Weis location automatically. Our
equation is listed here:
● Total Points = [2.5(LWE Points) + 0.25(Avg. Temp. points) + 0.75(Precip.
Duration Points) + 1.25(BUFKIT Precipitation Type) + 0.25(Wind Points)]
A statement will be coded so that if LWE Points= 0, Bufkit Precipitation Type=
Rain, or Precip Duration Points = 0 then Total Points = 0. This will account for scenarios
when rain is falling or no precipitation is forecasted to fall at all.

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Example #1 of our winter weather index:
Winter Index Days 1-5: State College, PA

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5

LWE 0.00 0.14 0.73 0.01 0.00

Sfc. Temp 34 32 27 33 42

Precip. 0 3 22 1 0
Duration

Bufkit Precip. - Snow Snow Snow -

Type

Sfc. Winds 7 12 16 21 13

Index Value 0 13 52 9 0
(Multiplier:1)

Day 1: Dry conditions with increasing clouds during the day. Winds will be around
7 mph with surface temperatures warming to around 34. Upper levels of the atmosphere
are well below freezing.
Day 2: Precipitation moves in around 11pm as snow. Around 1.5 inches
accumulates by midnight.
Day 3: Snow continues throughout the day and ends around 10pm. Another 7
inches of snow accumulates. Temperatures at the surface and in all layers of the
atmosphere remain below freezing.
Day 4: Northwest winds and mostly cloudy skies prevail. Lake enhanced snow
showers move through during the afternoon accumulating an additional dusting.
Day 5: Sunny skies return with temperatures warming into the 40s.

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22
Example #2 of our winter weather index:

Winter Index Days 1-5: Mitchellville, MD

(just outside Washington D.C.)

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5

LWE 0.00 0.31 0.68 0.00 0.00

Sfc. Temp 37 34 33 35 49

Precip. 0 6 20 0 0
Duration

Bufkit Precip. - Snow Ice - -

Type Pellets

Sfc. Winds 9 15 17 16 13

Index Value 0 25 65 0 0
(Multiplier:
1.5)

Day 1: Dry conditions with increasing clouds during the day. Winds will be around
9mph with surface temperatures warming to around 37. Upper levels of the atmosphere
are all below freezing.
Day 2: Precipitation moves in during the late evening as snow. Roughly 3 inches
accumulates by midnight.
Day 3: Snow continues through the early morning transitioning to sleet and
ending as a brief period of rain and freezing rain around 8pm. Another 4 inches of snow
accumulates, around ¼ inch of sleet and a trace of freezing rain. Temperatures fall back
to below freezing after precipitation ends.
Day 4: Northwest winds and mostly cloudy skies prevail. No additional
precipitation falls.
Day 5: Sunny skies return with temperatures warming up to around 50.

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24
 Growing Season/Produce Index
(used from April through October/November)
For grocery stores as a whole, produce accounts for 22% of all perishable food
sales, so produce is an important source of income for grocery stores. For Weis in
2017, fresh food sales (which includes meats, seafood, fresh produce, floral, deli
products, prepared foods, and bakery products) accounted for 30% of total sales.
Additionally, Weis sources their produce from many local farms in Pennsylvania, New
Jersey, and other states near their stores. During the growing season (which usually
lasts from April through October in the Mid-Atlantic), many things can affect how
produce grows and how much money Weis will make off of it. For example, if severe
weather hits a farm, the crops can be damaged by hail. Additionally, abnormal drought
or floods can be detrimental to farms and the produce crop. All of these factors will be
influential and important for Weis to consider when they’re assessing how much profit
they’ll make on produce sales. This index will be focused on produce that is grown in
the local area near Weis’ stores in the northeast and the Mid-Atlantic (not produce
shipped in from California, Florida, or from other countries).

Weis locally grown produce availability

According to Weis’ website, Weis sources produce from their stores from
● 59 local farms in Pennsylvania
● 5 local farms in New Jersey

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 ● 16 local farms in New York
● 9 local farms in Virginia
● 8 local farms in Maryland
● 2 local farms in Delaware

Here is a sampling of some of the farms that Weis sources their produce from:

When creating this growing season produce index, we chose four weather
variables that we thought would be the most important in determining how impactful
specific weather events would be on crops that are grown in the Mid-Atlantic by the
local farms that Weis partners with:
1. Temperature Anomaly (extreme heat probability/frost probability)
a. When temperatures rise above 94 degrees Fahrenheit, photosynthesis
rapidly decreases for fruit and vegetable crops. Therefore, these high
temperatures will limit yields for many vegetables and fruits. When these

26
 fruits and vegetable crops are experiencing heat stress, the production of
defensive chemicals in the plant is reduced leading to increased disease
and insect vulnerability. Additionally, the plant temperature at which tissue
dies is around 115°F. Overall, extreme heat is very detrimental for
produce crops, which it is why we should take it into account when
creating our index.
b. On the other hand, when temperatures approach 32 degrees overnight,
frosts can occur which also have a negative effect on fruits and
vegetables. Additionally, ​below 32 degrees Fahrenheit the water within
and between the plant’s cells freezes causing damage to the plants.
Overall, temperatures near or below freezing can cause major economic
losses to produce crops, and we believe that the farms Weis partners with
should know about this.
2. Severe Weather Outlook (SPC)
a. Severe weather, such as tornadoes, hail, and severe thunderstorms, can
cause extensive damage to produce crops. Depending on the size of the
hail, it can knock fruits or vegetables off of trees. Additionally, severe
thunderstorms can create straight-line winds that are damaging to crops.
3. Excessive Rainfall Outlook (WPC) & Drought Monitor
a. Excessive rainfall on any one day can create flash flooding concerns that
can be detrimental for produce crops. Too much rain can also
oversaturate the soil and cause erosion, which can harm plants.
b. On the other hand, too little precipitation over a long period of time can
create drought conditions where plants have a hard time finding enough
water to survive. Drought is not as common as flooding is in the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic.
4. Wind Speed
a. Wind can bring dry air to replace humid air and dry out the crops. Wind
can also bring in cold air that can cause freezing issues. Strong winds can
break the crops apart or tear them from the ground based on their vertical
development. Wind also affects the soil, possibly causing erosion or
deposition.

Using our proprietary equation, we will include several weather factors that have
a large impact on crop yields. These weather variables will be used to calculate the
overall crop index for that day. A value of zero indicates that the weather will be good
for crops to grow and it will not impact the crop yields. A value of one hundred indicates
that crops will be severely impacted by the weather on that particular day and crop
yields will suffer dramatically.

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 Included on the index page is the threat level of specific types of weather
occurring that may damage crops. This is helpful to include in addition to the overall
crop index for that day because there is a wide variety of weather events that can
impact crops. For example, frost and extreme heat are two very different weather
events, but they can both impact crops in a negative way. By looking at the threat level
of these weather events occurring, Weis and the local farms that Weis partners with can
assess the situation and plan accordingly so that profits do not suffer significantly.

The threat level for each extreme weather event will be determined using the
table below. The threat level will be reflected on the index display page. There are six
different threat levels: None, Low, Moderate, High, Significant, and Extreme. Moderate
and high threat levels will cause some impacts on crops that are locally grown by
farmers that Weis partners with. Significant and extreme threat levels will cause
extensive damage to produce that is locally grown by farmers that Weis partners with.

On each day from March/April through October, the index page will be sent to
Weis’ headquarters as well as all the local farms that Weis partners with (that are
located in the corresponding zone that is forecasted for, Zone 1 or Zone 2, which is
described below). Included on the index page are the probabilities and overall crop
index for days one through three. This allows Weis’ headquarters and the local farms to
plan ahead in advance of any severe or extreme weather that could impact the crops.

Drought information will be obtained from the United States Drought Monitor
website (​https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/​) which is published by the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) each week. This is why the drought monitor is
not included in the daily index value, since it is more of a slow-moving problem that
doesn’t change on a daily basis. The excessive precipitation threat will be obtained from
NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) website: ​https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml​. These outlooks
from NOAA are issued for day one through three. The severe weather threat will be
obtained from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) website:

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/​. These outlooks from NOAA with six different threat levels
are issued for days one through three.

The drought, excessive rainfall, and severe weather outlooks were chosen to be
used from outside sources because NOAA (a government organization) accounts for
many weather variables when creating these outlook forecasts. We believe that our
index is more accurate by using these resources provided by NOAA.

No localized or “zone” multipliers will be used for the produce index as the
summer variables will have similar impacts across the area of Weis locations.

For severe weather and excessive rainfall, the only data needed will come from
the WPC and SPC websites. However, for the other two weather variables that we use
to calculate our index (temperature and wind), we will obtain data from the Euro and
American model runs. This data will be averaged over two different zones (as shown on
the map below) where the local farms that Weis partners with are located. The area that
the farms are located in are broken up into two zones due to the different climatology
between the two. Forecasted data points will be averaged over these areas and
distributed as index values for zone one or zone two for the farms that are located in
these areas. Forecasted variables need to be averaged over these areas so that
calculating the final index value can be easier and feasible.

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Our equation that will be used to calculate the index value:
● Total Points = (Excessive Precipitation Threat Points) + (Temperature
Anomaly Points) + (Wind Gust Points) + (Severe Weather Threat Points)

No conditional “if” statements required. The variables are more independent of

each other, so one variable by itself can cause significant damage. This differs from the
winter index where the variables are more interconnected, and the presence of one
variable doesn’t always translate to significant impacts.

The total index value will be capped at 100 (the sum of all 4 variables cannot
exceed 100).

The risk levels for the excessive precipitation threat (from the WPC) and for the
severe weather threat (from the SPC) will be assigned to the point values that are the
highest within the category. For example, a marginal excessive precipitation threat will
receive 12 points for our index, not 6. As another example, a moderate severe weather
threat will receive 48 points for our index, not 42 or 36.

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Example of our produce index:
Produce Index Days 1-3

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

Excessive Moderate Marginal None

Precipitation
Threat

Temperature +2 +10 +26

Anomaly

Wind Gust 19 59 14

Severe Slight Enhanced None

Weather
Threat

Index Value 72 84 48

Weather Summary Days 1-3

Day 1: Heavy rainfall is forecasted to impact the region all day accumulating 2-4”.
Temperatures will be around normal. Widespread severe weather is unlikely; however,
isolated strong storms are possible.
Day 2: Temperatures will be above average with sunny skies in the early morning
and early afternoon. Severe storms will be possible later in the afternoon through
around sunset. Storms could contain damaging winds as high as 60 mph with golf ball
sized hail possible in the strongest storms.
Day 3: Temperatures are well above average with highs in the lower 100s. No
precipitation or severe storms are expected.

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32
 Before we move onto the contract, we have a few more important notes on our
indices. We will program a piece of code that takes in all of our weather indices for each
store location and outputs what the index value will be for that day at that location. This
automates the process so that we can calculate weather indices for all 205 store
locations during the winter and so that the growing season indices can be calculated
quickly.

For the winter index, the index page will be sent to each store location via email
at 8am each day during the winter months. For the produce index,​ ​the index page will
be sent out to Weis’ headquarters and each local farm location at 8am each day during
the spring, summer, and fall months. The two regions mentioned above will determine
which farms receive which index page for that day.

We will also write and send a regional weather summary each day throughout
the year. The regional weather summary during the winter will be sent out to each Weis
location along with the index page. During the spring, summer, and fall, the regional
weather summary will be sent out to local farms that Weis partners with and Weis’
headquarters will receive all nine regional weather summaries. During the growing
season, this will allow Weis’ headquarters and the local farms to decide what to do in
order to reduce crop damage and sustain high profits. This will be a short paragraph
that details some of the weather information that Weis stores should know for the next
five days. This will focus more on the actual weather forecast, whereas the weather
index focuses more on the impacts of weather events. For example, a regional weather
summary during the winter would include information on the timing, snow totals, and
precipitation types of an incoming snowstorm. A regional weather summary during the
growing season would include temperature and precipitation forecasts for the next five
days, as well as detailing any severe or extreme weather that might be upcoming.

Regions for the regional weather summary based on the concentration of Weis stores
1. Binghamton, NY area
2. Philadelphia, PA area
3. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA Area
4. Allentown, PA area
5. Harrisburg/Lancaster, PA area
6. State College/Altoona/Williamsport, PA area
7. Baltimore, MD area
8. Hagerstown/Frederick, MD area
9. Washington D.C./Fredericksburg, VA area

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 Contract
A. Introduction
1. Definitions
a) Weis Markets shall be referred to as the client.
b) The Weis Men shall be referred to as TWM.
c) The Subscription shall be defined as the terms of this contract.
d) A Term shall be defined as the client’s fiscal year.
e) The Contract Term shall be defined as the validity dates.
f) The Annual Fee shall be defined as the yearly cost of the weather
index outlined in this contract.
B. Contract validity dates:
1. The conditions of this contract shall be valid for two full terms.
C. Payment Terms
1. The initial cost of establishing a relationship between the client and TWM.
a) The initial cost shall be 30% of the total potential savings.
(1) Based on the projected savings, this will be $1,021,771.74 per
year.
(2) This shall be waived for the first contract period as part of the
trial period.
b) The initial cost must be paid within 1 month of contract initiation.
2. The annual cost of subscription
a) The annual subscription cost will vary depending on how often the
client wishes for an index to be released.
(1) For an index released daily, the client shall be assessed 45%
of the total potential savings.
(a) Based on the projected savings, this will be
$1,532,657.61 per year.
(2) For an index released weekly, the client shall be assessed
35% of the total potential savings.
(a) Based on the projected savings, this will be
$1,192,067.03 per year.
(3) For an index released monthly, the client shall be assessed
25% of the total potential savings.
(a) Based on the projected savings, this will be
$851,476.45 per year.
b) The first annual fee shall be assessed during the first month of the
term following the initiation and due by the end of the first month of
the first term.

34
 c) Each following annual fee shall be assessed during the first month of
each term and be due by the end of the first month each term
D. Exclusivity
1. The client shall be the exclusive client of TWM.
2. TWM shall be allowed to contract with other clients so long as it is in a
region in which the client does not compete.
3. The client shall be assessed $100,000 annually for exclusivity.
E. Contract Termination
1. There shall be a probationary period of one full calendar year from the start
of the first contract in which the client may terminate the contract with no
penalty. The client shall receive 50% of the annual fee.
2. Should either parties wish to terminate the contract before the end of the
validity dates:
a) The client shall provide at least a 6-month notice of contract
termination.
b) TWM shall provide at least a 6-month notice of contract termination.
c) TWM shall be assessed 50% of the annual fee should the termination
occur in Q1 or Q2 of the term.
d) There shall be no assessment to TWM if the termination occurs in Q3
or Q4.
F. Breach of contract:
1. TWM shall be assessed a breach fee of 8% of the annual cost in the event
of a failure to release an index value on the specified date outlined in
section.
2. TWM shall be assessed the entire annual fee for breaching the exclusivity
clause outlined in section D.
a) The client shall be allowed instant contract termination with no
penalty.
3. Failure to provide proper notice of contract termination, outlined in section
E, from the client shall result in a bill for the entire contract term.
4. Failure to provide proper notice of contract termination, outlined in section
E, from TWM shall result in an assessment of the initial subscription cost in
addition to a full term.
5. Should the client violate payment terms outlines in section C, the client
shall be assessed a late fee of 2% of the annual fee compounded monthly
until payment is received.

35
 References
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Climate Hubs,
www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/hubs/northeast/topic/agricultural-vulnerabilities-northeas
t.
“Agrometeorology: Wind and Plant Growth.” ​TNAU Agritech Portal​,
agritech.tnau.ac.in/agriculture/agri_agrometeorology_wind.html.
Annual Pennsylvania Rainfall, Severe Weather and Climate Data,
coolweather.net/staterainfall/pennsylvania.htm
Drought Affects the Northeast,​
www.farmcrediteast.com/News/media-center/press-releases/20160815AugustKEP/NEDr
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“Earth Modeling Branch (EMB).” ​High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR),
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2006,
spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/its-hurricane-season-do-you-know-where-your-st
orm-is.
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nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather.
NOAA. ​Global Forecast System (GFS),
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www.noaa.gov/explainers/improving-weather-forecasts.
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“SC ACIS2.” ​SC ACIS2, ​scacis.rcc-acis.org/
“Weather Balloon.” ​Wikipedia, W ​ ikimedia Foundation, 1 Mar. 2019,
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_balloon.
“Weather Buoy.” ​Wikipedia​, Wikimedia Foundation, 30 Aug. 2018,
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_buoy.

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