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Slide 1
Project Time Management
Processes to ensure
timely completion of
the project
Slide 2
“Before we begin our Time Management Seminar,
did everyone get one of these 36-hour wrist
watches?”
Slide 3
Tools for Project Scheduling
Slide 4
In this Project Management module, we’ll
focus on
as well as
Software for
Project Estimating, Scheduling,
& Performance Monitoring
Slide 5
These are recognized
“Best Practices”
Slide 6
Gantt (Bar) Chart
Activity ID Number –
Can be WBS Levels TIME SCALE
for Scheduling
No Activity 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
1 Shopping
2 Cooking
3 Laying Tables
4 Inviting Guests
5 Start Dinner
Activity — to do —
Task List
Slide 7
Activity
Slide 8
Activity
Slide 9
Gantt Chart of a Project Lifecycle
Slide 10
Looking at More Detail
Slide 11
Estimating Performance & Reporting
Progress During Implementation
Team Exercise
1
Slide 12
Project “X”
Gantt/Bar Chart
As of Date Actual Performance
PLAN Reported
Activity
A
B
C
D
Slide 15
There are at least 7 Methods for Computing
“Percent Complete”
1. Units Completed or Units In Place
10,000 LM estimated, 4,000 completed = 40%
2. Incremental Milestones
Equipment received 20%
Equipment Set 15%
Alignment Complete 40%
Testing Completed 15%
Owner Acceptance 10%
TOTAL 100%
3. Start/Finish
“X”% upon start of the activity, “y”% upon completion
4. Elapsed Time Ratio
Actual elapsed time compared to planned total project time
Slide 16
At least 7 Methods for Computing “Percent Complete”
cont’d
5. Supervisor’s Opinion
“Educated Guesstimate” of % complete
6. Cost Ratio
Actual Cost in $$ or Manhours to date/Estimate at Completion
7. Weighted or Equivalent Units
Slide 17
The Flood Control Project Manager reported the project:
“99.17 percent complete”
Slide 18
The CAMANAVA FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT
was pursued under the Luzon Urban
Beltway program under President Arroyo's
Super Regions scheme, as the final
solution to the frequent flooding in the
Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas and
Valenzuela (CAMANAVA) area.
Slide 19
The project was planned thru the
National Economic Development
Authority (NEDA) in three stages:
1. ICC technical board,
2. technical committee board, and
3. the need to secure an Environmental
Compliance Certificate (ECC).
Slide 20
• Following pre-planning in 1998,
• a feasibility study and a detailed
engineering design was undertaken
from 2001-2002.
• The project commenced in 2003 and
• was supposed to be fully operational in
June 2007.
Slide 21
Before being granted funding by the Japan International
Cooperation Agency, Bartolo said they were required to
remove informal settlers from 1998 to 2000.
"We got funding, but by that time we started in 2003,
nagbalikan (yung informal settlers), tapos another
round of removal na naman."
Slide 22
• In May 2008, the completion date was moved to Sept.
2008 as reported by project manager Carla Bartolo.
Slide 23
Malabon execs, residents set to picket DPWH
By Jerry Botial The Philippine STAR METRO Friday June 27 2008
Slide 24
Two Years Later – i.e. 3 years behind
schedule as of October 2010
Slide 25
Yet another Year Later
as of June 2011 -- Now 4 years behind
schedule
The same DPWH Project Manager reports:
“We will be completing by November”
"We have remaining 1.7 km long boulder dike in Dampalit na
binabaha," Director Carla Bartolo of the Department of
Public Works and Highways (DPWH) - Camanava Flood
Control Project told ANC's "The Rundown".
"Ito yung natitira we will be completing by November,"
Bartolo said, adding they bidded out the area this week.*
"Hopefully by August masimulan you completion ng boulder
dike.“
*Seems Very Optimistic – She still doesn’t appear to have taken into account
the time for completing the procurement process!
Slide 26
JUNE 2011 Camanava flood control
project
“Nears Completion”
By Caroline Howard, ANC
Slide 27
March 2012: The P5.5-billion
Camanava flood control project
is now
“Substantially Finished”
Slide 28
The Project Manager’s Viewpoint
Slide 29
Bartolo said only some components of the
project were suspended.
She added the original plan for the northern
Catmon drainage facility was to construct
two canals on both sides, but that plan
changed following consultation with
Malabon Mayor Canuto Oreta.
Slide 30
The Customer’s Perspective
Slide 32
"We could've helped. Three years ago sa inip ni
Mayor Oreta nagcreate ng flood advisory council
kung saan lahat ng sector sa Malabon in-
involve."
Slide 34
Slide 35
Slide 36
PROJECT UPGRADE NOW REQUIRED
Slide 37
Plus
ON-GOING MAINTENANCE
Water hyacinths are clogging the drainways of the flood control
project in Malabon City, hampering the flow of water toward its
pumping station. The water hyacinths must be removed
regularly to prevent it from clogging the canal. A small
water lily could grow to more than a meter wide in just a week,
that’s why it now covers almost the entire width of the canal,”
Malabon City engineer Edgar Yanga said a creek in Barangay Catmon,
which connects the Letre canal in Caloocan City to the main water
system of the Cloocan-Malabon-Navotas-Valenzuela (Camanava)
flood control project, had been previously cleared of tons of water
hyacinths.
Yanga said that the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) has
assigned men to clean the canal of debris that obstruct the flow of
water.
But residents near the waterway said a backhoe used in cleaning the
creek lays idle on its bank for almost three months now and men
that used to gather water hyacinths at the creek seldom come to do
their work.“
Slide 38
THE CAMANAVA PROJECT TIME LINE
Pre- Feasibility Study
Planning & Detailed Schedule Overrun: (4-9 yrs) 125%
Engineering
Design Cost Overrun: (3.5 – 5.5 B) 57%
Quality
Remove Planned Execution
Squatters 4 years
Actual Execution
9 years
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Slide 39
ROOT CAUSES:
1. Project Manager’s authority apparently limited to “in-
Scope” engineering activities.
2. Apparently no higher level “Program Manager” to
coordinate with “Clients” – i.e. city officials – and address
their concerns
3. Delays in meeting pre-conditions. Assumptions and risks
regarding Right of Way (ROW) not adequately addressed
IMPLEMENTATION MANAGEMENT FAILURES:
1. Little or no management attention paid to deal with non-
engineering ROW issues after the planning stage
2. Schedule slippage -- management didn’t mitigate risks
3. Cost overruns incurred
4. Failure to start or complete some planned work items
5. Failure to coordinate Scope changes with Clients
Slide 40
Reporting Task Completion
0% or 100% Rule
(Safest -- Conservative)
Slide 41
Which brings us to a significant
improvement in project performance
monitoring & reporting:
MILESTONES !
Slide 42
“Milestones”
There are many other acceptable ways to display project information on a milestone chart.
Slide 44
Gantt (Bar) Chart with Milestones
Activity ID Number –
Can be WBS Levels TIME SCALE
for Scheduling
No Activity 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
1 Shopping
2 Cooking
3 Laying Tables
4 Inviting Guests
Milestones for
5 Start Dinner specific
checkpoints
Activity — to do — in the project
Task List Performance
process
Slide 45
Project “X” PLAN
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones
PLAN
Activity
A
B
C
D
Project
Summary
Slide 46
Project “X” PLAN
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones
= Completed MS
PLAN PROGRESS REPORT
Activity As of Date 1) 15 Total LOP
Milestones Planned;
A 5 Completed.
Overall Progress
B 5/15 = Project is
33% Complete
C 2) 5 Milestones were
scheduled to date;
D 5 completed.
5/5 = 100%
Project Project Variance
Summary = 0%
ON Schedule
Slide 47
Project “X” ACTUAL
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones
PROGRESS REPORT
= Completed MS
1) Total Project 15
As of Date
PLAN Milestones Planned;
Activity 6 Completed.
Overall Progress
6/15 = Project is
A 40% Complete
B
2) 5 Milestones were
scheduled to date;
6 completed. 6/5 =
C Project is Ahead of
Schedule by 12%
D
Project
Summary
Slide 48
Reporting Progress During
Implementation
Slide 49
Project “X” PLAN
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones, & showing
interdependencies
PLAN
Activity
A
B
C
D
Project
Summary
Slide 50
THE CRITICAL PATH METHOD
(CPM)
Slide 51
CRITICAL PATH METHOD – (CPM)
NETWORK
G
A L
Slide 52
Network Diagramming :
“Rules of Thumb”
Slide 53
Arrow Diagramming
For concurrent activities in an “Activity-on-Arrow” Network that start
from the same milestone and would otherwise finish at a same ending
milestone, use an additional “0 duration” “Dummy Activity” and an
additional Milestone – to help clarify computation of the Earliest Finish
(EF), and Latest Finish (LF) times.
A 2
A
1
1 B 2
B
Right
Wrong
Slide 54
AoA -- Activity-on-Arrow Network
Slide 55
Three Improvements of CPM over Gantt /
Bar & Milestone Charts
Slide 57
SIMPLE : Gantt / Bar Chart is OK
A “One-off” Project
Slide 58
PARALLEL : Gantt / Bar Chart is OK
Diverse – unrelated -- sub-projects, with staggered
starts and in different geographic areas
(to be designed locally during project implementation)
i.e. demand-driven Participatory
Rural Development, &/or Community-initiated
1 sub-projects but monitored and managed
2 with a similar replicable
processing structure
3
4
5
Slide 59
Monitoring Approach for a Parallel
Repetitive-Type Project
A. Describe the Project Purpose as a generic
OUTCOME — i.e. Improved Quality of Life for
Villages throughout the North East Region
B. Develop the model to process a single sub-project
intervention, with key intermediate process
steps as Milestones – i.e. Committee Formed,
Sub-project (SP) Concept Developed, Concept
Approved, Funding Provided, SP Implemented, SP
Completed, SP Operational
C. Designate the End of the Process as a generic
OUTPUT INDICATOR – i.e. Sub-Project
Operational
D. Note the Output anticipated for each Sub-project — i.e.
66 wells constructed”, “30 People Trained”, etc.
Slide 60
CRITICAL PATH METHOD – (CPM)
NETWORK
MILESTONE MILESTONE
ACTIVITY
Sequential Logic:
What activities What activities
must be done must be done
before? What activities after?
can be done
concurrently?
Slide 61
TEAM EXERCISE
Develop an interrelated
Project Activity-on-Arrow
Logic Network – based on
the Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS) &
Logframe
FOR YOUR PROJECT
Slide 62
How to Develop the Critical Path
Method Logic Network
Rotate the WBS 90 degrees clockwise. This serves as your
skeleton framework for building the Critical Path Logic
Network. THEN ADD :
• A Start Milestone (Draw a “box outline” around the “post-it” note to
identify it as a Milestone. Alternately, use different colored “post-its”
to easily distinguish between milestones and activities)
• Start & Complete Milestones as “post-it” notes for each of
the other items
• Activities & Tasks -- as needed -- to accomplish the items
(Draw an arrow on the top of the “post-it” note -- or use a different
colored “post-it” -- to distinguish it as an activity or task)
• Linkages between Milestones, Output Components and other
Activities -- as needed
• A Completion Milestone for the PURPOSE START of the entire
network
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS TIME DURATIONS OR TIME
SCALING AT THIS STAGE.
Slide 63
POST-IT NOTES for Drafting
Critical Path Networks
Activity Milestone
Slide 64
Slide 65
Calculating a Network, & Showing
the Critical Path
[Forward Pass]
Identifies the Earliest Time a Milestone
can be completed
Slide 66
3 2 5
5 1
0 3 3 B D 6 8 2 10
A F G
2 2 8 10
5 5 1 6
2 E
C
2 6
Calculating a Network, and Showing
the Critical Path
Slide 67
Team Reinforcement Exercise
In Your Teams:
Use the foregoing demonstration to:
– Compute the Earliest Times for each
Milestone
– Identify the Critical Path
– Time scale the Network, and
– Develop a related Gantt/Milestone Chart
for the following Project
Slide 68
Calculate a NETWORK
Critical Path
Based on its Earliest Activity Times
3
B C 3 F
2 5 4 5
A 4 D
1 E 1
H 4 3
2 J Z
6
3
G 4
I
5
2 8 11
3
2 B C 3 F
5
2 5 7 4 11 5
0 7 8
4 4 8 16 16 19
A 4 D 1 5 E 1
H 4 12 3 19
J Z
2 6 8
2 9
6 6
3
2 G 4
I
Slide 70
COMPLEX “One Off” : Most suited for the
CRITICAL PATH METHOD – (CPM)
G
A L
Slide 71
Steps in Scheduling II
• CHECK
– Whether End Completion/Delivery date is acceptable
Slide 73
TEAM EXERCISE
Time Scaling a
Project Network
Slide 74
Time-Scale a NETWORK
Based on its Earliest Activity Times
2 5 5 11
3 8
2 B C 3 F
2 4 11 5
0 5 7
7 8
4 4 8 16 16 19
A 4 1 5 E 1
D H 4 12 3 19
J Z
2 6 8
2 3 9
6
2 G 4
I
6
NOTE: Slack - - - is After its Activity – i.e. “Hurry Up & Wait”
The Critical Path is the
longest series of Activities,
B C and the shortest time to
F complete the process
A D E H J Z
G I
Slide 75
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Linking a Time Scaled Network to a
Gantt / Bar Chart
Slide 76
Time Scaling a Network and Linking it
to a Gantt / Bar Chart
3 2 5
1
0 3 B D
A 2 8 10
1 6 2 2
5 F G
Activity 2
C E
AB
AC
BC
BD
CE
DF
EF
FG
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
A B D E F G
C Slide 77
TEAM EXERCISE
Linking a Time
Scaled Network to
a Gantt/Bar Chart
Slide 78
Time-Scaled Network converted to a Gantt/Bar Chart
B C
F
A D E H J Z
G I
AB
BC
CF
BE
AD
DE
EF
EH
AG
GH
FJ
HJ
GI
IJ
JZ
Slide 79
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)
Slide 80
PDM – Precedence Diagramming Method
Activity Duration
Number
Slide 81
Sample “MS Project” Worksheet
Slide 82
MS PROJECT
SOFTWARE
DEMONSTRATION
The ABC Project
Network
Slide 83
PDM Network Diagramming
The logical sequence and interrelationships of the project
activities are shown, but the time duration is not graphed.
Prepare
Func Develop 10 days
Specs
8 days 5 days
Prepare
Training Training
Manual
“Post-it” Notes are very useful for preparing 1st draft PDM Networks
Slide 84
Duration Compression I
Crashing
– Decreasing the total project duration by adding
resources to the schedule without changing the
sequence of activities
– Analyze both schedule and cost to obtain the greatest
amount of compression for the least incremental cost.
7 days 15 days
Prepare
Func Develop 10 days
Specs Reduce to 10 Days
1 day 5 days 8 days Testing 5 days
Approve Acceptance
Prepare Test Plan Prepare Test Data
Requirements Training
8 days 5 days
Prepare Training
Training
Manual
Slide 85
Duration Compression II
Fast tracking
– Doing activities in parallel that
would normally be done in sequence
Fabricate Shell Fabricate Interior Install Fittings
“A” 10 days Fittings “B” 10 days “C” 5 days 25 days
Slide 86
The Three Advantages of Starting with a
Critical Path Network Analysis and then
converting it to a Gantt / Bar Chart
Slide 87
Usefulness of CPM
In planning:
it forces the project staff to carefully identify the
tasks to be undertaken
Precisely determine the relationships of the
tasks to each other
Allows planners to do “what-if” scenarios to
determine the impact of task slippages
Helps to create more realistic estimates of
project schedules
Slide 88
Project Estimating
Slide 89
“I hate to criticize, but you’ve only been employed
here for two days and you’re already three weeks
behind in your work.”
Slide 90
Types of Estimate
Slide 91
What to Estimate
• Size
• Effort
• Duration
• Resources – human,
hardware, software and
supplies
Slide 92
ESTIMATING ACTIVITY DURATIONS
Slide 93
AFTER IDENTIFYING ACTIVITIES
& SEQUENCING THEM
Slide 94
Estimating Project Duration is not Easy
Slide 95
Who Provides the Best Estimates?
• Those who
know the work
• Those who are
accountable
for the work
• Those who do
the work
Slide 96
Estimation Methods and Techniques
Slide 97
Analogous (Top Down) Components
100 %
Computer
Allocate Percentages
Project to each level
30 % 10 % 60 %
Computer Computer
System Testing
Hardware Software
5% 10 % 5% 10 %
Hardware Built Testing Hardware
Design Hardware Facility Testing
20 % 30 % 10 %
Software Software
Tests Design
Design Codes
Slide 98
Parametric Modeling
Parametric modeling uses
project characteristics
(parameters) in a
mathematical model to
predict project costs.
Examples:
In construction, use the per
square meter of living space
to estimate cost.
In software development,
uses the no. of lines of code
to predict cost.
Slide 99
Analogous (Bottom Up) Components
$5,000
Overseas trip
Add Up Estimated
preparation item Costs at each
level
$500 $2,750 $1,750
Car Rental
Plane ticket Hotel
&/or Taxis
Slide
100
IMPLEMENTATION PLANNING
& SCHEDULING
Estimating Activity Times,
& Ultimately Project Duration
Slide
101
How to Prepare a Project Schedule
– Identify Activities & Milestones (WBS &
LOGFRRAME)
– Prepare Network diagram (CPM)
– Estimate the level-of-effort (staff-hours) to
complete the activities
– Translate effort into duration (working time)
– Convert working time to calendar time
– Identify “Critical Path” & Slack/Float
– Assign staff to work on activities
Slide
102
Project Activity Duration Estimating
& Scheduling
Time estimates are typically Over-optimistic for one or
more principal reasons:
CLIENT DRIVEN The Client establishes the project
completion deadline before technical analysis,
consultation or project management feedback
CONTRACTOR RESPONSE In order to be “Fully
Responsive” Contractors (Project Managers) accept
the Client’s deadline to hopefully win the contract
Slide
103
Project Activity Duration Estimating
Slide
104
RISK QUANTIFICATION
Determining
Risk Events &
Risk Tolerance
Slide
105
Slide
106
Slide
107
Slide
108
PERT/CPM Analysis
A 3-time probability-based
time estimating technique
te = O + 4M + P activity & project duration
often used to estimate
Slide
110
PERT Method – Activity Duration
Estimate
Optimistic + (4 x Most Likely) + Pessimistic
6
Example:
Optimistic time is 10 weeks
Pessimistic time is 35 weeks
Most likely time is 15 weeks
Slide
113
Russian Roulette “RR”
What is the Probability of
Surviving “RR” with One Round
in a Six Cylinder Chamber
Revolver?
• Point the Gun at Your Head
• Spin the Chamber
• Pull the Trigger
• Probability of being killed is
1 / 6 = 17 %
Thus Probability of Surviving =
100% - Probability of Dying =
83%
Slide
114
Russian Roulette “RR”
And the Probability
of Surviving with:
Three Rounds in
the Chamber
= 3 / 6 = 50 %
This is the same probability as
the PERT “3 time” weighted-
average estimating formula!!!
Slide
115
Also known as the “50 50” Method
Slide
118
PERT Formula — A Work-Around Solution
Slide
119
Realistic Activity Time
Dr. Ken’s prescription for
improving activity duration estimating
Take 1 PERT
+ 2 ESD’s
Slide
120
NORMAL CURVE, RANGE, STANDARD DEVIATION,
and RELATED PROBABILITIES
MEAN
-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3
-1 SD X +1 SD
68.26%
-2SD +2SD
95.44%
-3SD +3SD
99.74%
95%
0% 100%
50% Slide
121
The MEAN & the Standard Deviation
Slide
123
Realistic Time Example
GIVEN: Optimistic Time = 3 ; Most Likely = 7
and Pessimistic Time = 23
PERT Expected Time ( te ) = [ 3 + 4(7) + 23 ] / 6 =
[ 3 + 28 + 23 ] / 6 = 54 / 6 = 9
Slide
124
A NOTE ON PROBABILITY
Slide
126
Project implementation performance can
be measured in several ways.
By:
– Milestones and Percentage of Completion
– Closeness to the target
– Reaching -- or exceeding -- the target
– Percentage improvement over the baseline
– 5 point “Thai” Scale variance from the target
– Project Performance Index (PPI) & Traffic
Light System
Slide
127
Team Exercise - Estimating
• Regroup in your Teams
• Upgrade your WBS based on new information &
feedback
• Estimate [“Best Guess!”] Resource Requirements
and Costs for each Component, Activity and Task
in your WBS
• Estimate [“Best Guess!”] Time Durations for each
Activity and Task in the WBS independently, using
the PERT formula. [NOTE: Do not attempt to
Schedule the overall Project WBS]
• Prepare a Resource Register with the
Estimated Costs and Estimated Duration for
each item in the WBS
Slide
128
Finding the Critical Path
Calculate ES & EF Cumulatively [Same as Activity-on-Arrow Diagram]
ES = 1 EF = 8 ES = 8 EF = 23
LS & LF are
Prepare functional
Develop codes
specs determined by
2 7 days 5 15 days
ES = 23 EF = 33 calculating back from
the End Activity
Conduct testing
LS = 1 LF = 8 LS = 8 LF = 23
ES = 0 EF = 1 ES = 1 EF = 6 ES = 6 EF = 14 ES = 33 EF = 38
7 10 days
Approve requirements Prepare test plan Prepare test data Approve requirements
LS = 23 LF = 33
LS = 0 LF = 1 LS = 10 LF = 15 LS = 15 LF = 23 LS = 33 LF = 38
ES = 1 EF = 9 ES = 9 EF = 14
Prepare training
NOTE: No
Conduct training
manuals
Milestones shown
4 8 days 8 5 days in this example
LS = 20 LF = 28 LS = 28 LF = 33
Earliest Start, Earliest Finish; Latest Start & Latest Finish shown
WEAKNESSES: 1) Cannot Time-Scale or show Slack / Float Graphically
Slide
2) Difficult to prepare a Gantt Chart manually from PDM Format
129
Calendar Time
Elapsed time
– Accounts for all time, not
just time spent on the
project
Working time
– Time spent working on
the project; Synonymous
with productive time
Slide
130
Usefulness of CPM & PERT
In planning:
it forces the project staff to carefully identify the tasks to
be undertaken
Precisely determine the relationships of the tasks to
each other
Allows planners to do “what-if” scenarios to determine
the impact of task slippages
Helps to create more realistic estimates of project
schedules
Slide
131
Key Time Estimating Issues that can be
Explored with the
CRITICAL PATH CONCEPT
Slide
133
GRAND FINALE
SMALL GROUP EXERCISE
CRITICAL PATH II:
The Project Implementation
Game ©
Slide
134
Slide
135
Critical Path II —
The Project Implementation Game©
Slide
136
PROGRESS MARKERS
Activity – Temporary
&
Milestone -- Permanent
Slide
137
MONEY
Slide
138
LEVEL OF EFFORT/RESOURCES:
Slide
140
PROJECT MID-TERM Implementation
Evaluation
Slide
141
Project Performance Mid-Term Evaluation
Enter in Col A the number of Milestones (MS) completed
as of the end of JUNE; Then calculate Cols D, E & F :
A B C D E F
Interim Total % of Total % of Target %
Actual (i.e. Life of Project MS MS to Date Performance
cumu-
# of Project (i.e. 19) (i.e. 12) Variance to
lative to
Milestones MS Completed Completed Date
Completed date)
MS Target = 100 (A / C) = 100 (A / B) = 100 [(A-B) / B]
Target
12 19
+/-1
3 pts “Satisfactory” Range < TARGET Standard
Deviation
Marginal ==> <==Marginal
2 pts “Poor” - But Still Acceptable
Minimal ==> - 2 SDs
1 pt “Unsatisfactory”
- 3 SDs
Slide
144
Mid-Term Evaluation
Observations from Experience-to-Date