GSOE9810 Week 9

Erik van Voorthuysen / Ron Chan

Never Stand Still Faculty of Engineering Mechanical & Manufacturing Engineering

 Statistical Process Control

• Take periodic samples from process

• Plot sample points on control chart
• Determine if process is within limits
• Prevent quality problems
 Benefits of Statistical Process Control

Lower
Realistic
Manufacturing Correct Standards Stable Processes
Specifications
Costs

Decreased
Better Customer Reliable Measures
Less Inspection Problem-to-
Relations of Capability
Solution Lead Time

Improved Improved Product Decreased Cycle

Forecasting Quality Times
 What is variation?
• Variation is present in all processes.
• It can typically be classified into any one of the 6 M’s.
– Man (as in Human)
– Machine
– Material
– Mother nature (environment)
– Methods
– Measurements
• Variation is additive--variation in the process inputs will
generate more variation in the process output.
• Most variation without “special” causes will be
normally distributed.
 Types of Variation

Common Cause
• This variation is “built-in” to the process and always exists.
• The only way to reduce Common Cause variation is to
improve/change the process.
• Output from Common Cause variation is predictable over time.

Special Cause
• This variation is due to changes or disruptions in any of the
process inputs (6M’s)
• Special Cause variation can be eliminated after it is identified and
controls put in place to prevent a reoccurrence
• Output from Special Cause variation is NOT predictable over time.
 Types of Variation (cont’d)
Features Features
of Normal of Abnormal
Common Special
cause cause
Random Non-random
Systematic Local
Expected Unexpected
Stable Unstable
Predictable Unpredictable

Immediate Goal: Eliminate unexpected variation

Long term Goal: Continuously reduce expected variation

 Assignable Causes

(a) Process in control

(b) Steady state error of the mean – process out of
control
– assignable cause 1
(c) Variability too high – process out of control
– assignable cause 2
Montgomery D, Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 6th edition
Chance versus Assignable Causes

Montgomery D, Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 6th edition

 How do we characterize variation?

• Measurements from a process in a reasonable

state of statistical process control will form a
normal distribution.
• This distribution is described by two statistics:
– The MEAN 𝜇 or 𝑥 describes the process location.
– The STANDARD DEVIATION 𝜎 or 𝑠 describes the
process dispersion.
 Understanding the differences

3𝜎 Capability 4𝜎 Capability 6𝜎 Capability

• Historical standard • Current standard • New standard
 Types of Data

• Variable data
– Product characteristic that can be measured
– Length, size, weight, height, time, velocity

• Attribute data
– Product characteristic evaluated with a discrete
choice, things you can count
– Good/bad, yes/no
 Control Charts

• Graph establishing process control limits

• Charts for variables

– 𝑥 (with 𝑅), 𝑥 (with 𝑠), Range 𝑅, Moving average 𝑀𝑅,
Standard Deviation 𝑠, Median 𝑥

• Charts for attributes

– p = proportion defective, np = number defective or
non-conforming, c = number nonconforming in a
consistent sample space, u = defects per unit
 Define a Sampling Plan

Define the Define the Define the

sampling target acquisition method sampling type

Define the number Define the number Define what is

of repetition per of observations in meant by a
observation each subgroup subgroup
 A generalized procedure for developing
process charts
1. Identify critical operations in the process.

2. Identify critical product characteristics.

3. Determine whether the critical product characteristic is a variable

or an attribute.

4. Select the appropriate process control chart.

5. Establish the control limits and use the chart to continually

monitor and improve.

6. Update the limits when changes have been made to the process.
 A Process is In Control if:

• No sample points outside limits

• Most points near process average
• About equal number of points above & below
centreline
• Points appear randomly distributed
• No distinguishable trend, pattern, correlation
 Understanding Control Charts
• A data visualisation technique that monitors
the following hypothesis:
𝑯𝒐 : 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍 (𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆)
𝑯𝟏 : 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔 𝒊𝒔 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍 (𝒖𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆)
• Each subgroup represents a sampling
distribution.
• Every time a data point is placed on a control
chart, it is equivalent to conduct a new
hypothesis test.
 … continued

99.994%

99.73%

95.44%

68.26%

95%
-1.96s 1.96s
The Hypothesis Test at the 3s significance
level

𝐻𝑂 𝐻1

m
- Za/2 + Za/2

P { X > m + Za/2 s = m + 3s } = a/2 = ½ x 0.27%

How the Control Chart Works

Montgomery D, Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 6th edition

Relationship between Limits

Montgomery D, Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 6th edition

 X – Chart: Single Observation Charts
• X-chart reflects the population distribution.
• Data may not be normally distributed – can transform.
• Reflects the “natural variation” in the process.
• Can directly compare to specification limits
• Process variability can be estimated using the MR of two successive
observations.
𝑋1 + 𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝑋𝑛
𝑥=
𝑛

𝑀𝑅1 + 𝑀𝑅2 + ⋯ + 𝑀𝑅𝑛

𝑀𝑅 = 𝑀𝑅𝑖 = |𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥𝑖−1 |
𝑛

3
𝑈𝐶𝐿 = 𝑥 + 𝐸2 𝑀𝑅 𝐿𝐶𝐿 = 𝑥 − 𝐸2 𝑀𝑅 𝐸2 =
𝑑2
𝑀𝑅
𝜎(𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝜎) =
𝑑2
The 𝒙 – Chart: Monitor the Average

𝑅
𝜎(𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝜎) =
𝑑2
𝑍𝛼 = 3 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎 ± 3𝜎 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒
2

𝐴2 is available in tabular form

𝑅1 + 𝑅2 + ⋯ + 𝑅𝑚
𝑅= , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑅 = 𝑥𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑥𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑚
The R – Chart: Monitor the Variability

𝑅
𝜎(𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝜎) =
𝑑2
𝜎𝑅 = 𝑑3 𝜎
𝐷3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷4 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚
 Variable Chart Formulae (Foster, 4th ed)
Chart LCL CL UCL

𝑥 𝑥 − 𝐴2 𝑅 𝑥 𝑥 + 𝐴2 𝑅

𝑅 𝐷3 𝑅 𝑅 𝐷4 𝑅

𝑥 (𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑠) 𝑥 − 𝐴3 𝑠 𝑥 𝑥 + 𝐴3 𝑠

𝑋 𝑥 − 𝐸2 (𝑀𝑅) 𝑥 𝑥 + 𝐸2 (𝑀𝑅)

𝑠 𝐵3 𝑠 𝑠 𝐵4 𝑠

𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑥 − 𝐴2 𝑅 𝑥 𝑥 + 𝐴2 𝑅
 Example
A kitchen oven is stated to operate within 3% of its
set point as its standard deviation. That is, if the
oven is set to operate at 100oC, then according to
specification, the temperature standard deviation
should be 3oC

A sampling plan was established to measure the

oven temperature using 8 calibrated temperature
probes mounted at different locations with
resolution of 0.1oC. Assuming the oven was set to
operate at 100oC and the sampling interval is set to
give readings every 30 seconds.
Probe number Time = 0 sec Time = 30 secs Time = 60 secs Time = 90 secs
1 100.1 100.2 100.4 101.2
2 99.4 99.9 99.7 100.2
3 99.2 100.5 99.4 99.6
4 99.8 100.0 99.6 99.2
5 99.7 99.9 100.2 99.3
6 99.4 99.5 99.7 100.0
7 100.0 99.6 99.9 100.0
8 99.6 99.8 100.3 100.2
Mean Temp 99.7 99.9 99.9 100.0

Subgroup 1 It can be concluded that the

𝐻𝑂
first subgroup’s individual
observations are not
significantly different to the
specification at 5% level of
significance (+2s)
100oC
94oC 106oC
 The remaining subgroup means can be
constructed on a control chart
Temperature
Upper control limit
102.1oC
Centre line
100oC
99.9oC 99.9oC 100oC
99.7oC
97.9oC
Lower control limit

The control limits for the mean

at 5% level of significance (+2s)
are now based on the standard
error of the mean = 2 x
3/SQRT(8)
Any points within the control limits Subgroup number or
fall within the rejection region at sample number
5% level of significance. Thus, it
can concluded that the process is
in-control
 Process Capability Ratio

USL - LSL ˆ USL - LSL R

Cp = Cp = sˆ =
6s 6sˆ d2

• Process satisfies specification limits and has a margin for error or positive
tolerance band
• Process satisfies specification limits but has no margin – it will produce an
expected 0.27% (6s) of defects
• Process does not satisfy specification limits and will produce a large number
of non-conforming items
From Montgomery D, Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, 6 th edition
28
Variations on Process Capability

USL - m
C pu = , upper specification only
3s

m - LSL
C pl = , lower specification only
3s

(
C pk = min C pu,C pl )

29
 Process for Selecting the Right Chart

From Foster, Managing Quality – Integrating the Supply Chain, 4th edition
30