India’s research solutions

to real-world problems
 Biotechnology Industry
Research Assistance Council

We take our motto

of “Ignite, innovate
and incubate”
seriously

From funding, mentoring, supporting

partnerships such as Grand Challenges India,
and to assisting with IP matters, BIRAC has
worked hard to create a support network for
the budding biotech entrepreneurs of India.

If you have a good idea and are looking for

support, come apply for BIRAC schemes and
Grand Challenges India.

For more information, please contact:

http://www.birac.nic.in/   |  http://www.birac.nic.in/grandchallengesindia
 April 2018

EDITORIAL
Editors: Subhra Priyadarshini, Rebecca Dargie
Commentators: Govindarajan Padmanaban,
FROM THE EDITOR
Maharaj Kishan Bhan, Monkombu S Swaminathan,

I
Renu Swarup, Shirshendu Mukherjee, Soumya
Swaminathan, Trevor Mundel
Art and design: Chandra Pal Singh ndia is headed towards an aston-
Project management: Dalia El Essamy ishing population surge. With 1.34
Photographic research: Madeline Hutchinson billion people recorded in early
2018, the country is estimated
PUBLISHING
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to add another 100 million by 2024
overtaking China, currently the most
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around the challenges faced by India.
The mammoth population coupled
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The Nature India special issue on
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What are the grand challenges for the
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Through in-depth commentaries
by subject experts, this special issue
looks at the state of affairs in malaria
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In a reprint section, we compile some
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Research publications that highlight
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based solutions that India and the rest
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The volume also features a special
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to the 2017 Nature India photo com-
petition, themed ‘Grand Challenges’.
These pictures are compelling visual
narratives of some deeply moving and
familiar circumstances.
With examples and case studies of
evidence-based solutions, the Nature
India special issue on Grand Challenges
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APRIL 2018 | | 3
 CONTENTS
C O M M E N TA R Y
05 MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH
In search of a good start for our
mothers and babies
Maharaj kishan Bhan &
Shirshendu Mukherjee
Adverse birth outcomes still too
common, with a legacy of growth
issues that last a lifetime.
07 MALNUTRITION
To end hunger, we must make
smarter use of land and sea
Monkombu S Swaminathan
Better systems, information sharing
and technological progress are vital
for nutrition security.
09 DISEASE
Basic research the best weapon in
the age-old malaria battle
Govindarajan Padmanaban
The developing world needs a tool
to distinguish falciparum from
vivax cases
11 ENGAGEMENT
Maintaining momentum
Soumya Swaminathan
Interest in tuberculosis research is
high, but a quantum leap in funding
must follow.
13 INNOVATION
Biotech nation: support for
innovators heralds a new India
Renu Swarup
The country is uniquely poised to
deliver effective and affordable
solutions
15 PHILANTHROPY
A strong foundation for progress
Trevor Mundel
Supporting and enabling
groundbreaking projects from
inception to results on the ground.
April 2018
PHOTO STORY REPRINT
19 JUST ONE WORLD 28 A shot at contraception
Deepak Bhau Kumbhar Killugudi S Jayaraman
In India, a nonagenarian renews
testing of a birth control vaccine.
31 Rethink India’s energy strategy
Arunabha Ghosh & Karthik Ganesan
Address the needs of poor
20 CLEANING UP MY ABODE and rural households, target
Ricky Patel subsidies and support low-carbon
industries.
Action on mental health needs
33 
global cooperation
Pamela Y. Collins & Shekhar Saxena
21 FISHY TALES As threats to populations transcend
Dipankar Ghosh national boundaries, it is crucial that
responses to mental health problems
do too.
36 Bollywood takes on menstrual
stigma
Subhra Priyadarshini
22 CHILDREN OF THE SUN A biopic of an inspired Indian
Avinash Surendran sanitary-pad innovator.
38 Waste mountain
Subhra Priyadarshini
Examining the wide-ranging impacts
of India’s throw-away culture.
23 POVERTY INHERITED 39 Understand young people in
Preethi Krishnamoorthy low-income countries
Robert Blum & Jo Boyden
For most of the world’s adolescents,
poverty and social marginalization
influence health much more than
risk-taking does.
24 HOME ALONE
Samrat Mukherjee 42 REVIEW ARTICLE
Challenges and gaps for
energy planning models in
the developing-world context
Kumar Biswajit Debnath &
Monjur Mourshed
 COMMENTARY
DINODIA PHOTOS/ALAMY

A baby born in India today has twice the life expectancy of one born 70 years ago, but there is much still to be done to improve health measures.

In search of a good start for

MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH

our mothers and babies

Adverse birth outcomes still too common, with a legacy of growth issues that last a lifetime.
MAHARAJ KISHAN BHAN
SHIRSHENDU MUKHERJEE

The Grand Challenges project aims to
command the attention of world-class
researchers and to focus funding and
research on solutions to the biggest
public health and development prob-
lems we face. Grand Challenges India
has the same mandate on a domestic
scale ­— directing Indian innovation to
solve our specific challenges, which
can be taken to the rest of the world.
A child born in India today has a life
expectancy of 68 years, more than
twice that of a child born in 1947.
More mothers survive birth today than
they did even a decade ago. These are
markers of slow, yet steady progress in
improving the lives of our mothers and
children.
This is where the good news ends
The stillbirth rate and neonatal mortal-
ity are still high in India and other low
and middle-income countries (LMICs).
Around 20% of our babies come into
the world with low birth weight as a
result of prematurity, fetal growth
restriction alone or in combination. A
high proportion of Indian newborns
experience wasting and become
stunted by their second birthday. This
increased risk of linear growth retar-
dation occurs both in low birth weight
and those weighing 2.5kg at birth, but
the risk is many fold higher in the
APRIL 2018 | | 5
 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY
former category. We therefore have
the challenge and the opportunity to
improve both child survival rates and
growth, and prevent this exceptionally
high rate of stunting in Indian children.
There are gaps in our knowledge of
what causes these adverse outcomes,
as much as the unaddressed concern
of relatively lower coverage and quality
of current interventions. Research is
important for both.
The factors associated with adverse
birth outcomes, such as prematurity
and low birth weight explains about a
third to a half of the variation in these
outcomes. These include under nutri-
tion and specific nutrient deficiency,
hypertensive and thyroid disorders,
anemia, infections and inflammation
particularly of the reproductive tract,
complications related to pregnancy
involving mother and fetus. Sanitation,
hygiene, water supply increase risk of
infection and inflammation. Psycho
social factors may have direct and indi-
rect effects on gestation and growth,
but there are knowledge gaps. Many
of these and other factors also affects
placental function which is related to
fetal growth and development.
On the implementation side, there is
inequitable and inadequate interven-
tion, and only low to moderate compli-
ance by mothers and families.
How do we engage and initiate the
research community, working alone,
and through interdisciplinary teams to
generate applicable knowledge, inno-
vative tools for measuring gestation,
fetal growth, pregnancy complications,
placental function, postnatal growth
and development? On the nutrition
front, there is uncertainty about which
are the most critical nutrients for
mother and child. And how do we mea-
sure and address sub-clinical infection
and inflammation that impairs linear
growth in the fetus and the child. On
the basis of new knowledge we can
improve existing measures and add
new interventions.
Research is needed on how to
improve intervention delivery to
achieve high coverage and quality on a
wide scale.
Investments in promoting research
and innovation on these issues is a
high priority, given the link between
adverse birth outcome, stunting at two
years of age and eventual education
6 | | APRIL 2018
attainment, income, and health (partic-
ularly risk of chronic diseases such as
coronary artery disease and diabetes).
This is where the value of pro-
grammes such as Grand Challenges
India lies. It encourages innovation
to address some of these challenges
through two mechanisms, open calls
for solutions and through the policy
thinktank KnIT.
The ‘Achieving Healthy Growth
through Agriculture and Nutrition’
(AGN) and the ‘All Children Thriving’
(ACT) threw open the challenge to
researchers from across the country.
The AGN call targeted the interrela-
tionship between nutrition and agri-
cultural practices to reduce the high
incidence of low birth weight, early
stunting and wasting among Indian
infants and mothers. The ACT call was
envisaged to investigate measure-
ment tools and mechanisms to tackle
unhealthy birth, growth and develop-
ment in infants and children.
The linear growth study, under
the ACT grant, is being carried out
by the Society for Applied Studies to
understand the
causes of stunting “There are
in India, and to markers
develop mecha- of slow,
nisms to address yet steady
them. There are progress in
many possible
improving
the lives of
explanations as to
our mothers
why stunting rates
and children.
haven’t improved
in India, despite significant socio-eco-
nomic progress, and this study intends
to investigate many.
Specifically the study evaluates the
impact of a package of interventions
targeted at known risk factors on
prematurity, fetal growth restriction
and stunting and wasting at two years
of age. The study will assess the role
of intergenerational factors, such as
maternal height, play in modulating
the effectiveness of intervention pack-
ages. The study is designed as a ran-
domized control intervention trial in
low-income areas in New Delhi and will
deliver the intervention package from
pre-pregnancy, through pregnancy and
the first two years of life.
It comprises of host of interventions
addressing nutrition, medical disor-
ders, infection and inflammation, psy-
cho social support and timely detection
and care of pregnancy complications.
Postnatally, it provides evidence-based
intervention for the mother and infant
during the first two years. We will learn
how much reduction in childhood
stunting is feasible with evidence
based intervention.
Another ACT project, implemented
by THSTI in collaboration with
Regional Centre for Biotechnology
(RCB) and National Institute for Bio-
medical Genomics (NIBMG) is creating
and using a biobank generated from
a large pregnancy cohort to find new
ways of predicting, detecting and
addressing premature birth. The study
uses omics technologies and imaging
in search of new tools and ideas.
Another programme working in
nutrition and maternal and child
health is the Knowledge Integration
and Translation Platform or KnIT. This
is a policy thinktank which collates,
analyses and synthesize secondary
data and evidence on child survival
and thriving to inform policy-makers
on various aspects of health policy that
are relevant and targeted to the Indian
context. It works to synthesize and
disseminate Indian evidence derived
from routine surveillance, periodic
health and nutrition surveys, interven-
tion trials and programme evaluation.
The output is helpful in reshaping
policy and strategies in maternal child
health and in assisting state govern-
ments in programme redesign and
systems improvement. This platform
is designed to ask the right questions
and rigorously evaluate evidence
supporting different interventions. It
will provide state policy-makers with
a holistic view of the challenge in their
states with tailored interventions that
may help mitigate the problems.
Today, KnIT is working on important
questions in the area of nutrition and
maternal and child health such as pos-
sible interventions for low birth weight
babies, interventions to reduce anemia
rates, and understand the facility level
demands and supply for the care of sick
and small newborns at the district level
in the country. KnIT is assessing equity
and impact of existing nutritional and
health programmes for women and
children at national and state level.
The agri-nutrition linkage pro-
gramme supports innovative ideas in
agriculture and food sector that could
 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES

improve the nutrition of the very same
communities that produce food.
Many interesting projects are testing
innovation to reduce postharvest
losses, preserve nutrition quality of
seasonal vegetables and fruits, and
reengineer distribution to ensure
access to sustenance for the poorest
communities.
Grand Challenges for healthy growth
and birth is identifying a new genera-
tion of young investigators and pro-
viding an opportunity to support and
nurture them.
The programme, it is hoped will gen-
erate as many solutions and tools as
there are insightful and creative young
researchers.
Maharaj Kishan Bhan is National Science Professor,
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the Former
Secretary, Department of Biotechnology.
Shirshendu Mukherjee is mission director, Grand Chal-
lenges India, BIRAC, New Delhi.

MALNUTRITION

To end hunger, we must make

smarter use of land and sea
Better systems, information sharing and technological progress are vital for nutrition security.

M O N KO M B U S S W A M I N AT H A N
A recent issue of National Geographic
(February 2018) raises the question
of who will feed China. We have to ask
a similar question about India. The
answer lies in the integration of ecolog-
ical principles, technological advance-
ment and information sharing.
Nutrition security comes under the
following categories.
INADEQUATE DIETARY CALORIES
Wheat, rice, millet, and other food
crops are available. The development
and implementation of an effective
distribution system is essential.
PROTEIN HUNGER
Protein hunger can be overcome
introduce farmers to crops which are
rich in badly needed micronutrients.
A national grid of genetic gardens of
biofortified crops will make a major
contribution to overcoming hidden
hunger.
The three forms of hunger can be
addressed through appropriate farm-
ing systems. The Farming Systems
for Nutrition (FSN) initiative involves
agricultural solutions for nutritional
problems. Agriculture, nutrition and
health are currently being dealt with
separately, and FSN helps to integrate
the three.
Our aim should be to achieve the
second of the United Nation’s Sustain-
able Development goals: ‘End hunger,
achieve food security and improved
nutrition, and promote sustainable
agriculture”. To achieve this, we must
pay attention both to sustainable
agriculture and to farming systems for
nutrition.
Sustainable agriculture involves
increased productivity without ecolog-
ical harm. To make the transition from
a green to ever-green revolution, we
need to attend to the following.
1. Soil health, paying attention to the
physics, chemistry and microbiol-
ogy of soil.
2. Better management of ground
water, surface water, rain water,
coastal water resources, and water
recovered through waste recycling.

NOAH SEELAM/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

through the greater production and
consumption of pulses. Indian farm-
ers have shown that they can produce
much larger quantities of pulses
provided there is a certain and remu-
nerative market. Poultry, milk, and fish
also provide necessary protein. We
are fortunate to be the world’s largest
producer of milk. We have a large pro-
gramme of inland and coastal fisheries,
along with aquaculture infrastructure.

MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY
A dietary shortage of micronutrients
such as vitamin A, vitamin B12, iron,
and iodine could be eased through
growing biofortified crops like sweet
potato and moringa. Genetic gardens
should be established in order to Homeless people gather at a feeding programme in Hyderabad.

APRIL 2018 | | 7
 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY
BIJU BORO/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
A farmer dries harvested rice from a paddy field at Burha Mayong village in Morigaon, Assam
PRICE VOLATILITY
Instead of adhoc steps to appease con-
sumers, we should find a permanent
solution. One method is the promotion
of peri-urban horticulture, making use
of considerable areas of available land,
within cities and on their fringes. A
movement to encourage cultivation on
rooftops and vacant land with essen-
tial food crops, such as tomato, onion,
and chilli. This will confer a double
advantage; price stability and nutrition
security.
SEAWATER FARMING FOR COASTAL
AREA PROSPERITY
India’s 8,000 km coastline offers a
great opportunity for seawater farm-
ing, as practiced in the Kuttanad region
of Kerala. Both crops and fisheries can
be included in a seawater agroforestry
system. India should become a world
leader in demonstrating how seawater
can be used to cultivate crops. The M S
Swaminathan Research Foundation is
a hub for the technologies for seawater
and below-sea level farming, and will
undertake training and capacity build-
ing in this area. A genetic garden of
halophytes, including mangroves, has
been established for this purpose.
NATIONAL YEAR OF MILLETS
The Indian government has declared
2018 as the National Year of Millets.
Tamil Nadu are leaders in the cultiva-
tion of millet crops like samai, thinai,
kezhvaragu, panivaragu, kambu and
8 | | APRIL 2018
several other minor millets. Kolli Hills
has a rich germplasm of such grains. It
would be useful to establish a
millet biovalley for the conservation
of varieties, along with small pro-
duction industry for a wide range of
processed millets, like breakfast
cereals.
EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN IN
AGRICULTURE
I made proposals to the Rajya Sabha
legislation regarding the technological
empowerment of women in agricul-
ture. Several features of this legislation
could be incorporated in a Tamil Nadu
Act for the empowerment of women
in farming. Tamil Nadu will become a
leader in promoting gender equity in
agriculture.
ANIMAL HUSBANDRY AND
FISHERIES
Kisan credit cards should be given not
only to those cultivating crops, but also
promoting the cultivation of poul-
try and marine and inland fisheries.
Animal husbandry such as rearing of
goat, sheep and poultry products can
give substantial addition income to
farmers. These can also augment the
income of fisher families during sea-
sons when catching fish is prohibited
in order to promote regeneration.
RICE BIOPARK
This will show farmers how to increase
their income through biomass
utilisation, creating value-added prod-
ucts from the rice straw, husk, brawn
and grain. Similar bioparks can be
organised for pulses. This will help the
farmers to derive income and employ-
ment from every part of biomass.
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
It is important to set up many more
climate risk management R&D centres.
Such centres should be supported by
trained Climate Risk Managers, a man
and woman from each panchayat.
Climate change could lead to catastro-
phe, and there is need for immediate
steps in the areas of mitigation and
adaptation. Training manuals are
available with MSSRF which can be
used as a tool for an education
programme.
ESTABLISHMENT OF FARM SCHOOLS
Farmer-to-farmer learning through
farm schools should be established
in the fields of outstanding farmers,
to spread agrciultural knowledge and
skill. 
Another urgent requirement is
greater investment in research on
these ‘orphan crops’, so that the yield
potential is substantially enhanced.
Both higher yield and assured market-
ing will increase the attractiveness of
these crops to small farmers.
There is presently a mismatch
between production and post-harvest
technologies which leads to losses for
both producers and consumers. In
this part of the cycle, food processing
industries are urgently needed. The
2018-19 budget provides substantial
support to food safety and food pro-
cessing. Value-added products will
have to be prepared in order to pro-
mote greater investment in post-har-
vest technology. Cold storage and cold
chains are needed. The recent potato
crisis in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh
and Bihar could have been avoided had
there been cold storage available in the
Punjab’s Haryana region.
1. Swaminathan, MS (2010). From Green to
Evergreen Revolution, Indian Agriculture :
Performance and Challenges. Academic
Foundation, New Delhi. Pp. 410
2. Swaminathan, M S (2017). 50 years of Green
Revolution : An Anthology of Research Papers.
World Scientific, Singapore, 465 pp.
The author is the founder and chairman, M S Swamina-
than Research Foundation

Fumigation using a fogging device to control the menace of mosquitoes at Ulsoor Lake in Bangalore, India.
DISEASE
BASIC RESEARCH
THE BEST WEAPON
IN T HE AGE- OLD
M A L A R I A B AT T L E
The developing world needs a tool to distinguish falciparum from vivax cases
G OVI N DA R A JA N PA D M A N A BA N
More than 100 countries have eliminated malaria
in the past century, and 35 countries have joined
the malaria-eliminating category. These countries
have reduced their malaria burden by an impressive
90% from 1.6 million cases to 0.16 million, and cut
death rates by 87%. The WHO has described various
strategies for decreasing the global burden in terms
of death and incidence by 90% by 20301. A strong
surveillance system to identify and classify all foci
of transmission, aggressive and timely intervention
to block transmission, methods of characterizing
high-risk migrant and mobile populations, early
capture of drug and insecticide resistance, real-time
COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES
response for diagnosis and treatment, regional
cooperation and data sharing, advocacy for political1
JAGADEESH NV/EPA/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK
and financial support have all been addressed2.
Malaria is a major problem in India. The coun-
try did have a major success through the National
Malaria Eradication Programme (NMEP) which
brought down malaria incidence of 75 million
cases and death of 0.8 million cases in 1953 to 0.1
million cases and no death, respectively, in 1965.
However due to technical, operational and financial
complexities, incidence had shot up to 6.4 million
cases in 1976. Various programmes of intervention
have brought this to a figure of 1.1 million cases
APRIL 2018 | | 9
 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY
Policy recommendations
India needs to aggressively pursue
strategies described in the National
framework for malaria elimina-
tion in India (2016-2030) (NFEMI)
document to change its status from
a malaria-controlling country to
malaria-eliminating country, to
eventually become free of malaria
by 2030. Emphasis on operational
research and translational basic
and 562 deaths in 2014, although the
death figures have been debated. Even
if death rates are not considered as
a major factor, the morbidity, loss of
man hours and economic burden are
considered very high, since the coun-
try is a target for both falciparum and
vivax malaria. India also runs the risk
of being a malaria-exporting country
since neighbouring Sri Lanka has been
malaria-free since 2012, and other
nearby countries have malaria-elimi-
nating status.
Malaria interventions are considered
highly cost-effective, representing
large returns on investment in public
health. Therefore, in line with the WHO
Global technical strategy 2016-2030,
the Ministry of Health and Human
Welfare, the government has delin-
eated a strategy for malaria elimination
in India. The approaches described are
very similar to the strategies described
by the WHO, as applied to Indian states
falling in three categories representing
low, moderate and high transmission
rates.
Operational research must be an
integral part of the Grand Challenges
programme. There are many chal-
lenges, well described in the NFMEI
document3. To quote a couple of
examples, an aggressive intervention
in high transmission areas of Odhisha,
Chattisgarh, Jarkhand, MadhyPradesh,
Maharashtra and the northeast states,
which contribute to 70% of all the
malaria cases in the country, is a prior-
ity. Intensification of control activities
in forest, hilly, tribal and conflict-af-
fected areas will be the challenge.
Another example is to eliminate vivax
malaria. India accounts for 80% of
global vivax cases contributed by three
10 | | APRIL 2018
research is essential. Strategies to
prevent entry and spread of arte-
misinin resistance, quick diagnosis
and treatment of falciparum and
vivax cases, emphasis on research
with vivax malaria, strategies to
block transmission and vector
control measures, and tackling
insecticide resistance are among the
priorities.
countries. As the NFMEI document3
states: “The parasite can survive in
cooler climates, is less responsive
to conventional methods of vector
control, is more difficult to detect using
conventional diagnostic tools, treat-
ment of liver stage parasites requires
a 14-day course of primaquine which
can produce some serious side-ef-
fects”.
The use of spurious drugs and
artemisinin-based monotherapy have
been described as contributing to drug
resistance in the malaria origin centres
in Southeast Asia4. Surveillance in this
context in India is also essential.
There are many aspects that need
to be addressed through basic lab
research as well. In my opinion, the
biggest threat is
entry and spread
“Bugs are
of artemisinin smarter than
resistance in the scientists,
country, even as a and this
combination ther- human-
apy. Resistance to pathogen
this most effective is as old as
drug in the greater evolution.
Mekong Subre-
gion, which includes Cambodia, Laos,
Myanmar, Vietnam and China’s Yun-
nan province4 is a real threat to the
already-affected NE states and further
spread. Slower clearance of parasites
to Artesunate-SP (Sulfadoxine-Pyri-
methamine), approved combination
to treat falciparum cases in India, is
already being reported. A policy is in
place to introduce artesunate-lume-
fantrine combination. Our own studies
in animal models have established
the efficacy of artemisinin-curcumin
combination, both in uncomplicated
and Experimental Cerebral Malaria
cases5,6. This is a unique combination,
where curcumin has been shown to act
through activating host immune mech-
anism, despite low bioavailability and
rapid metabolism. Curcumin can delay
the onset of resistance to artemisinin.
It would help significantly if this com-
bination is taken through clinical trials
at the earliest.
A bigger global challenge is to find
a new antimalarial that is as effective
as artemisinin. There are candidate
molecules undergoing trials, but
may not be ready in the next three
years. The Grand Challenge has to
give priority to study of vivax malaria.
More virulent cases are being reported
even in P. vivax infection, although
chloroquine-based therapy seems to
work. Thus, a diagnostic to distinguish
between falciparum and vivax cases
in the shortest time is needed. Most
often, vivax detection is by ruling out
falciparum infection. Mixed infection
can pose major challenges. Imaging
techniques for microscopy need to be
upgraded.
Can we find an alternate to pri-
maquine, that involves a 14-day
treatment in vivax cases with side-ef-
fects? The main difficulty in studying
P vivax is the inability to culture this
parasite. Partial success for short-term
culture has been reported, but the
patient remains as the main source for
the parasite. The emergence of simian
parasites, P. knowlesi and P. cynamolgi
as potential human parasites in the
region needs to be studied carefully,
although the reports may be consid-
ered as outlying cases at present. The
vacuum created by the elimination of
P. falciparum and P. vivax may provide
an opportunity for the simian parasites
to spread. Bugs are smarter than scien-
tists and this human-pathogen conflict
is as old as human evolution!
Most laboratories are carrying out
studies with P. falciparum cultures to
understand the pathology. These stud-
ies need to be taken through a transla-
tional mode. P. berghei infected mouse
model is the most popular to carry out
studies in vivo. It is important to create
facilities to use humanized mouse
models to study P. falciparum infection
and even P. vivax infections as such.
Very few laboratories in India study
parasite development in the mosquito.
Intervention in the sexual stages of
 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES

DEBAJYOTI CHAKRABORTY/NURPHOTO/GETTY IMAGES

Official blood testing at a dengue and malaria clinic
in Kolkata.
parasite development is important in
the transmission stage and crucial for
malaria elimination.
Creation of more insectories to study
malaria parasite development in the
mosquito would be useful. While, P.
berghei development in the mosquito
can give important leads, P. falciparum
development studies in the mosquito
would need appropriate containment
conditions.
I do not believe that an effective
malaria vaccine will be available in the
next decade, although the RTS,S vac-
cine may still be introduced in Africa
with less than 40% efficacy. The sporo-
zoite vaccine seems to have tantalizing
success, but I do not know how it can
be made available on a global scale
even for falciparum cases. Perhaps, it
will have limited application in specific
geographical regions.
The best option seems to be quick
and correct diagnosis, immediate
appropriate drug therapy, vector
control measures, strategies for inter-
vention in the transmission stage and
‘Swachh Bharat’ initiatives.
I have already described the priority
for basic research. More investments
in these areas rather than in more
‘fashionable’ studies based on gene
drives to eliminate mosquitoes are wel-
come. Gene Drive will have huge envi-
ronment and regulatory issues in India,
even if the several technical challenges
are successfully addressed. I would like
to see India as a malaria-eliminating
country rather than as a malaria-con-
trolling country. Malaria eradication is
feasible, but not the mosquitoes.
1. World Health Organization. Global technical strategy
for malaria 2016–2030. Geneva: WHO, 2015.
2. Newby, G.,et al. The path to eradication: a progress
report on the malaria-eliminating countries. Lancet
387, 1775-1784 (2016).
3. Directorate of National Vector Borne Diseases
Control Programme (NVBDCP) and Directorate
General of Health Services (DGHS). National
framework for malaria elimination in India (2016-
2030) (NFEMI). Ministry of Health and Family
Welfare. Government of India. 2016.
4. Roberts, L. Malaria Wars. Science 352, 398-405
(2016).
5. Vathsala, P. G. et al. Curcumin-arteether
combination therapy of Plasmodium berghei-
infected mice prevents recrudescence through
immunomodulation. PLoS One 7, e29442 (2012).
6. Dende, C et al . Simultaneously targeting
inflammatory response and parasite sequestration
in brain to treat Experimental Cerebral Malaria. Sci.
Rep. 3, e 12671 (2015)
The author is at the Department of Biochemistry, Indian
Institute of Science, Bangalore, India

ENGAGEMENT

Maintaining momentum
Interest in tuberculosis research is high, but a quantum leap in funding must follow.

MOHD ZAKIR/HINDUSTAN TIMES/GETTY IMAGES

SO U M YA SWA M I N ATH A N

It is heartening to note the heightened political interest and engage-

ment on TB in the past year. What started at the Berlin G20 meeting
was followed by the Moscow Declaration to End TB: a promise to
increase multisectoral action as well as track progress, and build
accountability. The first UN General Assembly High-Level Meeting
on TB in September 2018 will seek further commitment from heads
of state, which some, like the Prime Minister of India, have already
made. At the recent End TB Summit in Delhi, PM Modi announced
an ambitious plan to eliminate TB, with a slew of new interventions,
including a social support scheme for all TB patients.
Modi also pointed out that the fight against TB must start in com-
munities, villages and towns — a true people’s movement.
The World Health Organization’s End TB Strategy adopted by all
member states in May 2014 aims to reduce TB deaths globally by
95%, and to cut new cases by 90% between 2015 and 2035, and to
ensure that no family is burdened with catastrophic expenses due
to the disease.
Tuberculosis still kills more people than any other infectious
disease and the growing burden of multidrug resistant (MDR) TB is
a challenge. Seven countries account for 64% of the total burden.
India leads the count, followed by Indonesia, China, Philippines,
Pakistan, Nigeria, and South Africa. In fact, India accounts for a Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the END-TB Summit and
quarter of the world’s TB cases and a third of its deaths. For the launches the TB Free India campaign in Delhi, March 2018

APRIL 2018 | | 11
 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY
year 2015, the updated estimate of
incidence (new and relapse TB cases
per year) is 2.8 million cases, of which
the RNTCP diagnosed and notified 1.7
million incident TB patients, leaving
approximately 1.1 million presumptive
patients whose fate was unknown. The
2015 estimate of the number of TB
deaths is 478 000 — making it one of
the leading causes of death in India. Of
the estimated 79,000 cases of multi-
drug resistant (MDR) TB, about 31,000
were diagnosed and the majority put
on treatment, leaving a large number
of patients undetected with the possi-
bility of further transmission.
While the disease is caused by a
bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis,
socio-economic determinants are
important and the incidence rate of TB
among people in the lowest socioeco-
nomic quintile is at least three times
higher than those in the highest quin-
tile. A recent systematic review found
that the total cost of TB for patients and
affected families on average repre-
sented more than half their yearly
income. Major drivers of TB in Asia
include poverty, overcrowding and
under-nutrition, while HIV is the main
risk factor in sub-Saharan Africa. Other
risk factors include diabetes, smoking
and exposure to indoor air pollution,
and alcohol consumption.
In Europe, TB rates began to decline
in the 1920’s, well before any effective
vaccine or drug was available, mainly
due to living standards improvements.
Tuberculosis infects people mostly
via the respiratory route and estab-
lishes a nidus of infection, where the
organism can survive in a dormant or
latent form for many years or decades.
An imbalance in the immune control
system allows the infection to prog-
ress to active disease and the infection
progresses faster and is more severe/
widespread in young infants and
children, those with HIV infection and
other immunosuppressive conditions.
There have been great advances in
genomics, proteomics and immunol-
ogy in recent years, but major gaps
remain in understanding of pathogene-
sis of some forms of TB. There is much
to learn about the interaction between
mycobacterial lineage and host genet-
ics, determinants of virulence and
transmission, biomarkers that can pre-
dict progression from latent to active
12 | | APRIL 2018
disease and correlates of protective
immunity. This has slowed down the
development of a newer, more effective
vaccine for TB, as well as tests that can
easily identify individuals most at risk
of disease progression who could be
targeted for treatment of latent infec-
tion. Ultimately, for elimination, latent
TB treatment would have to be scaled
up, in addition to identification and
treatment of active cases.
Major challenges in India include
the disparity of treatment providers,
many of whom do not follow standard
diagnostic or treatment algorithms, the
lack of awareness about TB symptoms,
and the fact that free diagnosis and
treatment are available at government
health centres, causing stigma which
prevents people from seeking care.
The National Strategic Plan 2017-
2025 addresses many of these chal-
lenges and provides cash incentives
for TB patients who are regular with
therapy as well as for physicians
who report TB. A
“The total national prevalence
cost of TB survey is planned
for patients
in 2018 to provide a
and families
baseline prevalence
represents
half their rate — ideally, com-
annual plete notification of
income.” TB by private and
public providers
will negate the need for such surveys
and enable the programme to monitor
progress.
After relying on sputum smear
microscopy for diagnosis for more than
a hundred years, a cartridge based
nucleic acid amplification test has
become the standard of care, enabling
rapid diagnosis and detection of
Rifampicin resistance simultaneously.
There are more affordable diagnostics
on the horizon, mainly from India and
China, and it is now possible to imagine
that every patient with suspected TB
could have a molecular diagnostic test,
with susceptibility testing for at least
Rifampcin, even at a remote primary
health centre, with no electricity or
highly qualified staff.
After a gap of 40 years, there are
now two new drugs to treat TB, though
currently these are reserved for
multidrug resistant cases. There is a
small pipeline of novel molecules that
must undergo further clinical develop-
ment.
More data are likely to become avail-
able on the combination of Bedaquiline
and Delamanid in treating extensively
drug-resistant TB. In the case of TB,
it is novel drug combinations (rather
than individual drugs) that need to be
tested for safety, efficacy, affordability
and convenience. This will require the
involvement of research institutes,
pharmaceutical companies, regulatory
agencies and funders, including mid-
dle-income countries. The paradigm of
drug development needs to be differ-
ent for diseases like TB, which predom-
inantly affect the poor and do not have
a market in the West.
Research to identify specific
immune cell core regulatory pathway
disruptions caused by pathogens must
be increased to efficiently develop new
host directed therapies for treatment
and prevention. Already, some host
directed therapies like the antidia-
betic drug, Metformin, and leukot-
riene antagonists are being tested as
adjunct therapies. There needs to be
a quantum increase in investment in
research in TB — ­ right from basic sci-
ence to better understand biology and
transmission dynamics, to transla-
tional research on biomarkers, clinical
trials of new drug combinations, and
operational research to address blocks
in programme delivery. The India TB
Research Consortium was launched in
2017 by the Indian Council of Medi-
cal Research, in partnership with the
Department of Biotechnology and
other science ministries, international
agencies, and WHO, to undertake
translational research to develop
and validate new tools (diagnostics,
drug combinations and vaccines)
needed to fulfill the TB elimination
goals.
A national mission to end TB has
been launched in India. A concerted
effort by all stakeholders —­ govern-
ment, private sector, and the patient
community ­— is required, with regular
surveillance. The ministry of health
has developed a seven-year national
strategic plan. Additional investments
in research through the India TB
Research Consortium will hopefully
deliver new and better tools to prevent,
detect and treat TB.
The author is deputy director-general of programmes,
World Health Organization.
 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES

A pavilion at the
‘Make in India’ week
in Mumbai

INNOVATION

BIOTECH NATION:
SUPPORT FOR INNOVATORS
HERALDS A NEW INDIA
The country is uniquely poised to deliver
effective and affordable solutions
INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Innovation is key to solving many RE N U SWARU P Innovation is believed to be the fun-

problems faced by communities, soci- damental source of significant wealth
eties, nations or humanity as a whole. Nurturing innovation generation within an economy. An innovation ecosystem
requires special attention to maximize benefits for those is thriving and healthy when the resources invested in the
with the greatest need. knowledge economy (either through private, government, or
An innovation ecosystem models the economic dynamics direct business investment) are replenished by innovation
of the complex relationships between entities, which in this induced profit increases in the commercial economy. The
case are the material resources and humans whose goal is to interdependence of innovation and entrepreneurship is
enable technology development and innovation. therefore a clear one.
APRIL 2018 | | 13
 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY
India is undergoing a revolution in
the area of innovation, whether it is
in the areas of science, technology or
others. The emphasis of Make in India,
Stand Up India, and Startup India
launched by the government is on
creating a conducive environment for
home-grown innovation and entrepre-
neurship to solve some of the biggest
challenges that India faces.
A penchant for frugality, combined
with public and private support for
entrepreneurship and innovation,
mean that India is uniquely poised to
deliver effectve and affordable solu-
tions in areas of medicine, healthcare,
agriculture, energy, industry and
others.
In science and technology, this
thrust for innovation and entrepre-
neurship has been possible because of
the systematic and unflagging support
of the government. Since indepen-
dence, until the 1980s, India had built
a substantial scientific infrastructure
through public funding and some pri-
vate funding. By the early 1980s, India
had a fledgling biotechnology sector
with a few biotechnology focused com-
panies that manufactured vaccines,
enzymes and other biotechnology
products intended primarily for the
domestic market.
It was during this time that the true
growth potential of the biotechnology
sector was realized by science pol-
icy-makers and the government, to
deliver valuable and affordable solu-
tions to some of India’s challenges.
This spurred public investments
first in academia for basic research
which has now expanded to include
translational research and devel-
opment and the entire innovation
ecosystem.
Systematic government support for
the biotechnology sector began in the
1980s with the National Biotechnol-
ogy Board (NBTB) and followed by the
Department of Biotechnology (DBT) in
1986.
Biotechnology today well poised,
because of the excellent base created
by DBT in the last 30 years. There
are more than 500 laboratories to 16
autonomous institutes each strate-
gically positioned to contribute to a
special high-risk area of research.
They are part of a focus on creating
the translation ecosystem through
14 | | APRIL 2018
bio-clusters and connecting with
industry, startups and entrepreneurs
through BIRAC. It is because of this
that India is today a preferred partner
for all international collaborations
in biotechnology, which we cur-
rently have with more than 80
countries.
Biotechnology’s role is crucial for
the Indian knowledge economy to
grow. Establishing and growing an
innovation product driven biotech
industry was a significant need in
India which led to
creation of BIRAC
“India by the Govern-
enjoys a ment of India.
penchant for Biotechnology
frugality, and Industry Research
support for Assistance Council
innovation. (BIRAC) is a not-
for-profit public
sector enterprise,
set up by the Department of Bio-
technology (DBT) as an interface
agency to strengthen and empower
emerging biotech to undertake
strategic research and innovation,
addressing nationally relevant prod-
uct development needs. BIRAC is a
new industry-academia interface and
implements its mandate through a
wide range of initiatives, be it pro-
viding access to risk capital through
targeted funding, technology transfer,
IP management and handholding
schemes that help bring innovation
excellence to the biotech firms and
make them globally competitive. In
its four years of existence, BIRAC has
initiated several schemes, networks
and platforms that help to bridge
gaps in the industry-academia inno-
vation research and facilitate novel,
high-quality affordable product
development. BIRAC has also initiated
partnerships with several national
and global partners.
In recent years BIRAC has had very
positive impact on the whole ecosys-
tem for startups and entrepreneurs,
and the industry academia interface
has greatly benefitted. We have more
than 1,000 startups and 500 industries
engaged in the network. The ecosys-
tem has been empowered by creating
over 30 bio-incubator centers with
300,000 sq.ft of incubation space.
More than 1000 products or technol-
ogies have been developed, many of
which are in the market, and more
than 150 new IP’s have been filed. The
focus is also on skill development,
training, employment and market
access.
An important part of encouraging
entrepreneurship is assuming the
business risk that a young business
developing an innovative scientific
idea faces specially in its nascent
stages. As products move along the
value chain, only the level of their risk
changes. Therefore, funding bodies
such as BIRAC need to create sup-
port through the market value-chain
to ensure that ideas don’t fail for the
want of support. Government funding
has also plugged several holes where
venture capitalists and angel inves-
tors were typically unwilling to invest
before, such as early-stage research,
during which private investors were
more wary. India is moving towards
high-risk funding, encouraging for
many scientists to take up research on
disruptive technologies.
Our recent focus on retaining and
attracting scientists with high-level
experience and our recent investments
in high-tech infrastructure gives us
the confidence to support disruptive
technologies.
Biotechnology is an intrinsic com-
ponent of the 21st century knowledge
economy. The Indian government has
set an ambitious target of US$ 100
billion for the biotechnology indus-
try by 2025. DBT along with BIRAC
is committed to work alongside all
partners in the endeavor to create an
innovation driven biotech ecosystem
and amplify the growth of Indian bio-
technology.
The vibrant ecosystem we see
today gives us the confidence that our
innovators will be recognized globally
for providing solutions for addressing
major societal problems.
The recent government impetus on
Make in India and Startup India have
given a major boost to this sector, and
the biotechnology industry will con-
tribute immensely to the enhanced
GDP and employment opportunities.
The industry is poised to leverage its
strength and capacity to bring in trans-
formational change and the making of
a new India by 2022.
Renu Swarup is BIRAC’s managing director.
 COMMENTARY GRAND CHALLENGES

The challenge of improving sanitation demands a pipeline of technological solutions from India’s best minds, along with sustained funding.

PHILANTHROPY

A strong foundation for progress

Supporting and enabling groundbreaking projects from inception to results on the ground.

example, the government of India set At the Bill & Melinda Gates Foun-
JONATHAN RAA/GETTY IMAGES

TR E VO R M U N D E L
The words science and technology
can conjure images of things far from
our everyday experience: ISRO’s Mars
orbiter or theoretical physics, for
instance. But science and technology
are both intuitive and immediate, and
they are key to addressing the most
pressing challenges India faces.
As part of Swachh Bharat, for
a deadline of 2019 for Indians to stop
dumping untreated waste into the
environment. The government has
called for “measurable results” on mal-
nutrition by 2022, and it has pledged
to eliminate tuberculosis as a serious
national health challenge by 2025.
That is a lot to do in a short time, which
is why India is committed to an innova-
tion agenda.
dation, we agree that innovation and
India’s future are inextricably linked.
We believe the world is getting better,
and can get better still, in large part
because scientific and technological
innovation can help solve difficult
problems, especially those faced by the
poorest. We have been working closely
with the government of India for more
than a decade as it implements its
APRIL 2018 | | 15
 GRAND CHALLENGES COMMENTARY
innovation agenda, and one of our
most effective collaborations to date is
Grand Challenges India.
The Grand Challenges programme
dates back to the very beginning of the
Gates Foundation. Bill and Melinda
Gates had spent their careers in the
software industry, where the best
minds came together to unleash an
almost-constant stream of innovation
that revolutionized the way people
lived and worked. They did not see the
same focus on innovation in global
health and development, and they
were convinced that a little attention
after years of neglect could unlock
big improvements. As a result, they
worked with partners to create a pro-
gramme that turned the usual grant-
making paradigm on its head. Instead
of selecting grantees and prescribing
their activities, Grand Challenges
would explain the end goal — for exam-
ple, to discover treatments that don’t
lead to drug resistance — and then
invite innovators from everywhere to
propose ideas for how to achieve it.
The hope was to encourage more ideas
from more places and push the best
ones forward fast.
India had always been a part of our
vision for Grand Challenges, both
because many of the problems the pro-
gramme was designed to solve exist on
the subcontinent and because so many
world-class innovators come from
India as wel. As a result, we decided to
host the 2011 Grand Challenges annual
meeting in New Delhi. In the run up
to that meeting, we forged a strong
relationship with the Department of
Biotechnology, which was interested
in creating a Grand Challenges India
to engage more Indian innovators to
work on India-specific challenges.
In 2012, we signed a memorandum
of understanding, the newly formed
Biotechnology Industry Research
16 | | APRIL 2018
Assistance Council (BIRAC) was given
responsibility for the programme, and
in 2013 Grand Challenges India issued
its first calls for proposals, with funding
provided jointly by the government of
India and the Gates Foundation.
Many Grand Challenges projects that
generated impressive early results
are now being scaled up. Together,
they offer hope that Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s ambitious targets
for improving the quality of life for the
poorest in India are within reach.
Consider sanitation. Though open
defecation is a problem in rural areas,
most people in urban areas use pit
latrines or septic
tanks. While the
“The hope
was to waste is contained
encourage initially, most of it is
more ideas eventually dumped,
from more untreated, into
places, and the environment.
push the best Consequently, one
ones forward of the first two calls
first.” issued by Grand
Challenges India
was for proposals to “reinvent the
toilet”—that is, to create technologies
appropriate to the situation on the
ground in Indian communities that can
prevent the pathogens in human waste
from circulating. One of the Reinvent
the Toilet grantees, BITS Pilani, is
developing what it calls the empow-
ered septic tank. Run on photovoltaic
power, the system uses electricity to
change the pH levels in effluent, killing
pathogens and helminth eggs. The
team is now pilot testing its technology
in a community setting, in preparation
for scale-up.
To achieve the results promised
on malnutrition, India will need to
continue to improve routine immu-
nization, since enteric infections
can prevent children from absorbing
nutrients from food. Improving routine
immunization requires improving the
supply chain. The old-fashioned paper
records were sometimes inaccurate,
and even when they weren’t, informa-
tion traveled slowly, which meant it
could take weeks to address stockouts.
One Grand Challenge project sup-
ported a start-up company in Bengal-
uru called Logistimo, which created a
cloud-based mobile supply chain plat-
form so that anyone with a smartphone
can instantly check stock anywhere in
the system. Logistimo is now deployed
in five countries and has over 12,000
stores in its network with a stock avail-
ability of more than 95 percent.
Fighting tuberculosis is another
priority our foundation shares with
the government of India, and almost
15 years of Grand Challenges-funded
research has produced a better scien-
tific understanding of latency, which
is helping drug developers accelerate
their research. We have also supported
programs to promote adherence to the
current treatment regimen, includ-
ing 99DOTS, an ingeniously simple
and inexpensive monitoring system.
Each time a patient takes a pill from a
specially designed packet, it reveals a
number for the patient to call, toll-free.
That phone call feeds into a system that
dispenses reminders, incentives, and
counseling for patients who are having
trouble sticking to the regimen.
The impact of each of these inno-
vations is significant. But what’s just
as significant is that the government
of India is supporting a platform that
is producing innovations on an ongo-
ing basis to overcome a vast array of
obstacles standing in India’s way. We
are proud to work alongside the nation
as it addresses the priorities of today to
create the India of tomorrow.
Trevor Mundel is the president of the Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation
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Photo contest
2017
Grand Challenges
Nature India held its first photo con-
test in 2014. We received about 50
entries, but the quality and passion
of our entrants was enough for us to
make the contest an annual affair.
Four years later, Nature India has
a rich archive of stunning science
pictures from across the world.
We’ve even put together a travelling
exhibition curated from some of the
winning pictures. The large number
of scientists participating in these
contests also got us thinking about
the importance of visual elements in
communicating science.
In 2016, this sparked our ‘Visual-
ising Science’ workshop where more
than 80 selected Indian scientists
received hands-on training in pho-
tography, illustrations, infographics,
film-making and virtual reality. The
two-day workshop at the National
Institute of Immunology, New Delhi
was supported by Nature India’s long
time partners Wellcome Trust DBT
India Alliance.
The theme for the 2017 photo
contest was Grand Challenges. Dan
Ferber, who was then executive edi-
tor, Grand Challenges, for Springer
Nature, called for entries:
“Droughts. Typhoons. Rising seas.
Refugees. In this big, crowded world
of ours, the challenges we face can
sometimes seem daunting. Indeed,
we must address the complex global
problems we face — the world’s grand
challenges — to ensure humanity a
healthy and sustainable future. But
first we must see them clearly. That’s
where photography comes in.
We must see the vast sweep of the
18 | | APRIL 2018
Deepak Bhau
Kumbhar
flooded landscape in the aftermath of
the typhoon, as well as the man carry-
ing his belongings on his back through
the waist-deep floodwaters. We must
see the woman walking two kilometres
to obtain drinking water for her family, Ricky Patel
as well as the young child, wan with
fever from a treatable disease like
pneumonia or diarrhoea.
But we must also see images of
ingenuity and resilience: a scientist
testing an improved form of waste-
water treatment, a green skyscraper
that not only cools the air, but grows
food as well, a nurse vaccinating rural
children.
Addressing the world’s grand chal-
lenges will require scientists — and all
Avinash Dipankar
of us — to reach beyond our comfort
Surendran Ghosh
zone, collaborate across disciplines
and across sectors, focus on solu-
tions. It’s a big, crowded world, but
ultimately it’s a small one, and we’re
all in it together.” Preethi
We received more than 300 entries Krishnamoorthy
from around the world. Scientists and
non-scientists, professional photogra-
phers and amateurs, high-end digital
camera operatives and mobile phone
users all vied for the top spots. A team Samrat
of editors and art directors from across Mukherjee
Nature Research judged the entries for
novelty, creativity, quality and print-
ability. The photos were also rated in
part by the engagement they received
from the online science-loving com-
munity on Nature India’s social media
channels.
We present some of the winning
pictures, as well as some very worthy
contenders.
Deepak Bhau Kumbhar, These beautiful caterpillars face severe
Maharashtra, India competition from one another, trying to
nibble into a single piece of leaf. That’s what
Just one world is happening to mankind as we greedily
consume the world’s limited resources.
It is time we realise that soon there won’t
be enough left for all of us. Though that
realization has dawned among many, out of
sheer habit we continue to nibble into the
same leaf.

I am a science teacher at a high school,

passionate about micro wildlife photography.
I photograph nature’s amazing creations
and show them to my students with various
messages.

APRIL 2018 | | 19
20 | | APRIL 2018
 Dipankar Ghosh, A dramatic increase in population, along with
Minnesota, USA climate change, are depleting global natural
resources at an alarming rate. Fishermen on
Fishy tales the Puri coast in Odisha, India depend on the
ocean’s natural resource for their livelihood.
But meeting the daily targets of fish needed to
earn a living is often a big challenge.

Ricky Patel,
West Bengal, India

Cleaning up my abode

Can we please use biodegradable material

or adopt safer waste disposal practices, at
least inside the national parks? My friends
and I living in the Ranthambore National Park
(Rajasthan, India), have a hard time cleaning
up after careless tourists. I imagine this would
be the message of this Royal Bengal Tiger, with
a plastic bottle in its mouth, if it could speak
to you. Incessant use of non-biodegradable
polymers makes a mockery of our national
programme of ‘Clean India’, even in highly
protected zones.

APRIL 2018 | | 21
 Enough sunlight hits the Earth in an hour to
power it for a year. Why aren’t we using this
resource enough? Even five years ago, powering
homes or industries using solar power would
be the realm of a billionaire philanthropist.
However, in the last five years, the cost of solar
energy has fallen by a fifth, making it cheaper
than fossil fuels in many countries around
the world. The story of solar energy is not just
about sunlight. Its success includes sound
Avinash Surendran, technology, innovation and the political will to
Bengaluru, India solve the grand challenge of cheap sustainable
energy. It is a story of democratization of energy
Children of the Sun and leaving the planet a better place for our
22 | | APRIL 2018
children. The next generation should be the
children of the sun.
This photo was taken from the terrace of the
Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore.
I am a PhD student there and contributed to
the installation of a solar rooftop power plant
which offsets the energy usage of the entire
institute, while providing cheaper electricity
than that available from the grid. This photo
for me is symbolic of the opportunity we have
in solving the problem of cheap sustainable
energy for all.
Preethi Krishnamoorthy, I was having my morning cup of tea at the
Bengaluru, India window in a quiet Bengaluru neighbourhood
when I saw this little boy. He was confidently
Poverty inherited running around the street without fear of
the moving vehicles. He walked over to a
woman, perhaps his mother, among some
workers mending the road, tugged on her
sari for attention and made a sad face when
she refused. For her, leaving work to attend
to him would probably mean no dinner for
him that night. She went back to work, and he
to play with a little girl he found. She readily
shared a packet of chips with him. All was well
again in his little world, but there were a lot
of questions in mine. Would he grow up to get
formal education or have a healthy life? Would
the underprivileged ever be able to break
their inherited cycle of poverty? The burden of
these questions should weigh heavily on our
collective conscience.

APRIL 2018 | | 23
 Samrat Mukherjee, Every year the rains are more unpredictable.
Mumbai, India Traditional ways of living are unable to cope
with this change.
Home alone This image was taken in the Nadia district of
West Bengal, crippled after a spell of heavy
cyclonic rains, a phenomenon that’s more
frequent in the Bay of Bengal in recent times.

24 | | APRIL 2018
 careers India

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A D
AVD EV RE TR ITSI ES M
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www.birac.nic.in
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 N E W CHALLENGES
GRAND S REPRINT
A shot at
contraception
In India, a nonagenarian renews testing
of a birth control vaccine
By Killugudi Jayaraman
The idea to try to revolutionize birth control
came to Gursaran Pran Talwar during a trip in
1972 to the holy city of Varanasi on the banks
of the Ganges. There, in the crowded streets,
the Indian biochemist bumped into groups of
emaciated women herding their large broods of
children.
Why did they not limit their family size when
the government offered a basket of birth control
methods for free, Talwar, who then worked at the
All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS)
in Delhi, wondered. A brief conversation with
them revealed the reasons: using birth control
pills required remembering to take them daily
and the intrauterine devices (IUDs) available at
the time caused excessive bleeding. A surgical
procedure involving ligation of the fallopian
tubes, known as ‘getting your tubes tied’ in
other parts of the world, caused permanent
infertility and was therefore not preferred until
later in their reproductive lives. Their husbands,
meanwhile, were reluctant to use condoms.
That set Talwar thinking. Why not devise a
reversible contraceptive option for women that
didn’t require daily dosing and was free of many
of the side effects associated with traditional
birth control, such as unexpected mid-cycle
bleeding, mood changes and headaches?
281 1 8
He believed that a vaccine targeting the
hormone called human chorionic gonadotropin
(hCG) would be ideal. hCG is made by the
embryo early after fertilization and isn’t produced
until the onset of pregnancy. This unique aspect
of hCG is the very reason why it is used as a
reliable test of pregnancy. Importantly, hCG is
essential for implantation of the embryo in the
uterine lining. So, if a vaccine were to generate
antibodies neutralizing hCG, Talwar reasoned,
implantation of the embryo would be blocked,
thereby preventing development of a fetus.
Now, after more than four decades and having
developed three different successively improved
versions of an anti-hCG vaccine, Talwar, 91,
thinks his idea is finally becoming reality.
In late November, he got the news he was
eagerly waiting for. The Indian Council of
Medical Research (ICMR), the country’s primary
funding and coordinating body for biomedical
research, informed him it would fund and
conduct the clinical trials of his latest vaccine.
A total of 120 women will participate in the
testing—50 in the phase 1 trial and 70 in the
phase 2 trail—at two hospitals in Delhi. Talwar
expects the phase 1 trial to start by March, and,
according to the ICMR letter he received, the
trials are approved to “determine the safety and
VOLUME 24 | NUMBER 2 | FEBRUARY 2018 NATURE MEDICINE
Matt Hansen/SpringerNature
immunogenicity of the vaccine in sexually active
healthy women and prove its ability to prevent
pregnancy without impairment of ovulation
and derangement of menstrual regularity and
bleeding profiles.”
Other scientists have taken note of the
upcoming trials. “It is gratifying to hear the hCG
vaccine has been revived,” says John Schiller of
the US National Cancer Institute, who a decade
ago had considered hCG as a potential ‘payload’
for a vaccine platform that he had developed,
although he did not end up moving ahead
with this particular application. Jeffrey Jensen,
director of the Women’s Health Research Unit at
Oregon Health & Science University in Portland,
who has followed Talwar’s work since the late
1980s, is also watching to see what happens.
Although he stresses that some of the immune
system’s reactions to the vaccine have to be better
understood, he told Nature Medicine that “a
vaccine approach could become an additional
option for birth control in India” and would
likely be accepted in other countries, too.
But Sharon Batt, a bioethicist at Canada’s
Dalhousie University, fears that the vaccine, if
it becomes available, will inevitably be deployed
among the poor where large families are most
common. “It masks, rather than addresses,

the social and economic reasons that poor,
undereducated women have large families,
including a dependence on children for
economic security,” she says.
For his part, Talwar hopes that the vaccine,
when released, will have women opting for it
because of its contraceptive benefit without the
unpleasant side effects of ‘the pill’. “I am sure
there would be plenty of women who would like
to take three or four doses of vaccine and be free
for about two years,” he says. “A role for vaccines
undoubtedly exists as an aid to birth spacing,
particularly in developing countries.”
An alternative choice
References to fertility regulation in women
exist in historical records stretching back to
ancient times, but it was only in the twentieth
century that a basket of efficient and secure
methods of birth control became available. The
first oral hormonal pill of this sort, Enovid, was
first marketed as a contraceptive in 1960. IUDs
appeared in the 1920s, but it was only in 1988
that the new-generation copper IUD was first
introduced to the US market, and hormonal
IUDs came later in 2001. Altogether, 18% of the
world’s contraception users rely on hormonal
methods. But Talwar says that his vaccine offers
an advantage in that it doesn’t control women’s
menstruation cycles or hormones as the pill
does. And he believes that modulating the
immune system should be better for temporary
contraception than IUDs, which require surgery
for implantation and removal.
The number of women using contraception
globally has already surpassed 770 million1,
with high growth in use projected for all regions
of Africa and in southern Asia. However,
according to the World Health Organization
(WHO), 214 million women of reproductive
age in developing countries who want to avoid
pregnancy are not using a modern contraceptive
method. The need for increasing contraceptive
options was noted in a December study2 by
the Guttmacher Institute in New York. This
study found that, in India, half of the 48 million
pregnancies in 2015 were unintended and that
more than 15 million ended in abortion. “Our
findings confirm and reinforce the need for more
effective contraceptive methods for women to
choose from,” Susheela Singh, the study’s author
and the institute’s vice president for international
research told Nature Medicine.
Talwar’s vaccine targets hCG, which has two
subunits—alpha and beta. Ideally, a contraceptive
vaccine would use both to stimulate an
immune response, but the alpha subunit of
hCG is common to other non-pregnancy
hormones produced by the pituitary gland, so
its incorporation in the intended vaccine could
provoke an autoimmune response against this
NATURE MEDICINE VOLUME 24 | NUMBER 2 | FEBRUARY 2018
Forging ahead: Talwar in his office with a photo of his aunt, Vimal Raghuraj, who raised him.
whole range of vital pituitary hormones. Talwar
therefore chose to make the vaccine out of the
beta subunit and chemically attached it to the
tetanus toxoid protein to help trigger the body
to become immunized against this subunit.
In1974, he launched a phase 1 clinical trial
that included four Indian women who had
completed their families and had their fallopian
tubes tied to prevent further pregnancies. In
these women, the vaccine made antibodies
against both hCG and tetanus with no disruption
of regular menstruation. Their antibody levels
steadily rose to reach a plateau, which was
maintained for about three months, after which
antibody levels began to decline, indicating that
the vaccine’s effects wear off over time3,4. The
safety and ability of the vaccine to induce anti-
hCG antibodies were confirmed by Population
Council–sponsored trials in the late 1970s using
the same vaccine in Finland, Sweden, Brazil and
Chile5 on 15 healthy women.
Besides Talwar, another scientist named
Vernon Stevens at the Ohio State University had
been working since the early 1970s on a similar
approach for birth control. However, unlike
Talwar who designed his vaccine to employ the
whole beta subunit, Stevens ultimately designed a
vaccine based on only a tiny fragment of the beta
subunit for the WHO Task Force on Vaccines for
Fertility Regulation.
Even though the idea of a birth control vaccine
was gaining traction outside India, this did not
assuage all skepticism to the approach in Talwar’s
homeland. “Back home, people felt that this was a
crazy idea that could make women permanently
sterile,” he says, reminiscing about the early days
that, fairly or not, generated significant debate on
ethics. “Vaccines were made against infections
and not contraception,” Sarojini Nadimpally, a
feminist bioethicist and the founder of Sama,
N EGRAND
REPRINT W S FCHALLENGES
E AT U R E
Gursaran Pran Talwar
a Delhi-based resource group for women and
health, told Nature Medicine. The result, says
Talwar, was that he “could get no research grant
or support from his peers to go ahead.” Talwar’s
distress was, however, short-lived. The break
came in 1983 when he became the director
of the newly established National Institute of
Immunology in Delhi, where he resumed the
voyage that he started a decade earlier at AIIMS.
Talwar was aware of the main drawback of
his prototype vaccine: the antibody levels it
produced were insufficient to neutralize hCG.
To make it more powerful, in 1988, he combined
the hCG beta subunit (which was prepared
from hCG purified from the urine of pregnant
women) with a sheep-derived version of the
alpha subunit of another reproductive signaling
molecule known as luteinizing hormone. The
rationale behind the updated design was that the
latter hormone, being a foreign molecule, would
stir a greater immune response in humans.
In a 1990 phase 1 trial, this second-generation
anti-hCG vaccine produced higher antibody
titers than its predecessor. The phase 2 efficacy
trial on 148 women during 1991–1993 in three
centers in India demonstrated the feasibility
of preventing pregnancy in a reversible
manner without impairment of ovulation.
The women had IUDs implanted until it was
demonstrated that their antibody levels were
high enough to prevent pregnancy. Once
the IUDs were removed, there was only one
implanted pregnancy (which was terminated
upon the subject’s request) occurring in 1,224
menstrual cycles6. The response to the vaccine
was reversible. Four women in the trial, who
desired another child and who did not take a
booster after having remained protected for a
year or more, did conceive and delivered normal
babies7. A news report in Science8 described the
1 1 9 29
 N E W CHALLENGES
GRAND S F E AT U R REPRINT
E

trial as a “landmark” and hailed it as the “first PhD student decades ago, this vaccine “will
demonstration that women can be vaccinated revolutionize the field of contraception all over
against pregnancy.” the world, especially in India where presently
the population explosion is a pressing issue.”
Evoking a response But not everyone is buoyant about the
Although the phase 2 trial of Talwar’s second- vaccine’s prospects. Aaron Hsueh, a reproductive
generation birth control vaccine provided proof biologist at the Stanford University School of

A shot at
of concept, only about two-thirds of women in Medicine who is familiar with the story of the
the trial produced antibodies above the desired hCG vaccine, says he is “surprised that Talwar
threshold, thought by Talwar to be sufficient is still working on this project.” He questions the

contraception
to prevent pregnancy, for a duration of at least need for a vaccine given the safe contraceptive
three months. So, it was Talwar’s next task to options available for women, including the
enhance the vaccine’s ability to evoke an immune so-called ‘morning after pill’. Sharon Batt of
response. But he suddenly faced another barrier Dalhousie University says that, although there
that again held up the vaccine’s progress: in is no evidence of harm from the earlier versions
October 1994 he had to retire from the National of the vaccine to animals, mothers or offspring,
In India, a nonagenarian renews testing
Gursaran Pran Talwar

Institute of Immunology, whose authorities the numbers of subjects and extent of follow-up
could not extend his emeritus position nor are not adequate to conclude safety. “If this trial
of a birth control vaccine
provide him working space. Parting from the
institute also meant that he had to leave behind
goes ahead,” she says, “Talwar and his colleagues
would be advised to welcome a very public
By Killugudi Jayaraman
a Canadian grant he had received for developing
the vaccine.
Early days: Talwar as a graduate student at the
system of external oversight.”
There are still skeptics in Talwar’s home
Pasteur Institute.
The bad news kept coming. Around the country as well. “I do not think there is any
same time, news arrived that a WHO task force likelihood of this vaccine being accepted as a

Matt Hansen/SpringerNature
trial undertaken on women in Sweden testing Contraception Research in 2006, his research reversible form of contraception,” says Jacob
the vaccine developed by Vernon Stevens was program that had remained inactive for about Puliyel, a pediatrician at St. Stephens Hospital in
suspended because the first seven of the 30 12 years was revived. Delhi and a member of India’s National Technical
trial participants all experienced severe and His third-generation vaccine, now awaiting Advisory Group on Immunization. But all this
unexpected side effects9. The study was not clinical trial, is a recombinant vaccine that doesn’t worry Talwar. “When it was decided
published. consists of the hCG hormone’s beta subunit to conclude the phase 2 trial in 1993, many
Talwar says he “was left injured” when fused with a portion of a protein derived from participants offered to pay for the vaccine to
asked to quit midway. But a remedy arrived Escherichia coli bacteria that is thought to be continue to be immunized,” he says, even though
quickly in the form of a new grant from the more capable of stirring an immune response he and his fellow scientists could not continue
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control uterine Biotech
Bharat lining. So, if a vaccine will
in Hyderabad wereproduce
to generatethe me US
the longNational
life to see this vaccine
Cancer Institute,become
who athe first
decade
when hisfor
methods project was midway
free, Talwar, who then completed
worked atput the antibodies
vaccine andneutralizing
make it available hCG, free Talwar reasoned,
of charge for birthhad
ago control vaccinehCG
considered for preventing
as a potential pregnancy,
‘payload’
himIndia
All in a fix.
Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) implantation
the of the embryo would be blocked,
clinical trials. if it asucceeds
for vaccineinplatform
the clinical thattrials. ” developed,
he had
in But
Delhi, nothing could A
wondered. deter
briefTalwar, an incurable
conversation with thereby
Will itpreventing development
prevent pregnancy? Talwar of aisfetus.
optimistic although he did not end up moving ahead
optimist
them who isthe
revealed noreasons:
strangerusingto difficulties.
birth controlHe butNow,
addsafter
thatmore
“howthan longfour
the decades
protection andwill
having
last Killugudi
with Jayaraman
this particular is a scienceJeffrey
application. writerJensen,
based
lost his
pills mother
required when he was
remembering eightthem
to take daysdaily
old developed
will only bethreecleardifferent successively
after the trials. ” He notes improved
that, in director of the Women’s Health Research in Bangalore.
Unit at
and,the
and as aintrauterine
youth, haddevicesto flee to Delhiavailable
(IUDs) from riot-at versionstrials
clinical of an of anti-hCG vaccine, Talwar,
the second-generation 91,
vaccine, Oregon Health & Science University in Portland,
torntime
the Hissar—his birthplace—following
caused excessive bleeding. A surgical the thinks women
many his idea is finally becoming
remained protectedreality.
for as long who has followed
1. Alkema, Talwar’s
L., Kantorova, work C.
V., Menozzi, since the late
& Biddlecom,
partition ofinvolving
procedure India. Talwar ligationcompleted his final
of the fallopian as In
twolate
andNovember,
a half years he bygottaking
the news he was
boosters an 1980s, is also
A. Lancet 381,watching
1642–1652to(2013). see what happens.
year ofknown
tubes, college as by ‘getting
staying in a camp
your tubessettied’
up for
in eagerly of
average waiting for. The
every three months Indian Councilthe
to maintain of 2. Singh, S.heetstresses
Although al. Lancet thatGlob.
some Health 6, e111–e120
of the immune
6. Talwar (2018).
migrants.
other Allofthis
parts thedidn’t
world,stopcaused
him from winning
permanent Medicalantibody
desired Researchlevels(ICMR), the country’
does not s primary
believe system’s
3. Talwar, G.P. et al. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USAbe
reactions to the vaccine have to 73,better
218–
a fellowship
infertility andforwasgraduate
therefore studies at the Pasteur
not preferred until funding
there is aand
riskcoordinating
of long-termbody for biomedical
infertility from the 222 (1976).he told Nature Medicine that “a
understood,
research,and informed him itcanwould fund and 4. Talwar, G.P., Dubey, S.K., Salahuddin, M. & Das, C.
Institute
later in Paris,
in their where lives.
reproductive he gotTheir
his doctorate,
husbands, vaccine says a woman conceive a child vaccine approach could become an additional
Contraception 13, 237–243 (1976).
and becoming
meanwhile, werethe secondtofaculty
reluctant member to
use condoms. conduct
by skipping the the
clinical trialsand
boosters of his latestuntil
waiting vaccine.
her option
5. Nash,forH. etbirth control
al. Fertil. Steril.in34,India”
328–335 and would
(1980).
join
Thatthesetnewly
Talwar launched
thinking. AIIMS
Why not in Delhi
deviseina A total oflevels
antibody 120 drop
women belowwilla certain
participate
level.in the likely
6. be accepted
Talwar, in other
G.P. et al. Proc. countries,
Natl. Acad. Sci. USAtoo.
91, 8532–
8536 (1994).
1956.This contraceptive
reversible indomitable spirit optiondrove
for him
women to carry
that testing—50
“It is excitingin thenews,phase 1 trial
” Rajesh Naz,andwho 70 is
invice
the But Sharon Batt, a bioethicist at Canada’s
7. Singh, M., Das, S.K., Suri, S., Singh, O. & Talwar, G.P.
on working
didn’t requireon dailyhisdosing
dreamand vaccine,
was free even after
of many phase of
chair 2 trail—at
researchtwo andhospitals
professor in Delhi. Talwar
of obstetrics Dalhousie University,
Am. J. Reprod. Immunol. fears that the(1998).
39, 395–398 vaccine, if
eviction
of the sidefrom ICGEB,
effects in a laboratory
associated he built
with traditional expects
and the phaseat1 trial
gynecology WesttoVirginia
start by March, and,
University’s it becomes
8. Aldhous, P. available,
Science 266,will1484–1486
inevitably (1994).
be deployed
9. van Kammen, J.R. Conceiving Contraceptives: The
near his
birth residence
control, suchwith as his own funds.
unexpected Thanks
mid-cycle according
School to the ICMR
of Medicine, says ofletter he received,
the new the
trial launch. among the poor where large families are most
Involvement of Users in Anti-Fertility Vaccines
to a grantmood
bleeding, fromchanges
the Indo-US Committee on
and headaches? trials
“If are approved
successful, ” adds to “determine
Naz, who the wassafety and
Talwar’s common.
Development. “It masks,
PhD thesis, rather
AMC-UvA than addresses,
(2000).

301 1
280 VOLUME 24 | NUMBER 2 | FEBRUARY 2018 NATURE MEDICINE
 COMMENT
COMMENT REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES

SUZANNE LEE/PANOS

SUZANNE LEE/PANOS
Kamla Kamla
Devi, Rajasthan’s
Devi, Rajasthan’s
first female
first female
solar engineer.
solar engineer.

Rethink
RethinkIndia’s
India’s
energy
energystrategy
strategy
Address
Address
the needs
the needs
of poor
of poor
andand
rural
rural
households,
households,
target
target
subsidies
subsidies
andand
support
support
low-carbon
low-carbon
industries,
industries,
urgeurge
Arunabha
Arunabha
Ghosh
Ghosh
andand
Karthik
Karthik
Ganesan.
Ganesan.

II
ndia’s ndia’s
policy-makers
policy-makers have three
have threebig big India’s India’s
energyenergy
priorities
priorities
shouldshould
be reframed
be reframedone-quarter
one-quarter
of the ofenergy
the energy
of those of those
at the at the
energyenergy
goals: goals:
providing providing
everyone everyone
with withas follows: as follows:
to cater totocater
the to
different
the different
energyenergyhighesthighest
income income
levels.levels.
UrbanUrban
centrescentres
are in are in
accessaccess
to energy,
to energy,
securing securing supplysupplydemands
energyenergy demands
of citizens
of citizens
of various
of various
economiceconomiceffect effect
subsidised
subsidised
by rural byareas,
rural areas,
whichwhich
are are
1 1
and trying
and trying
to limit tocarbon
limit carbon
emissions emissions
with- with-strata; to strata;
direct
toenergy
direct energy
subsidies
subsidies
to benefit
to benefit
the thebeing overcharged
being overcharged
for substandard
for substandard
serviceservice
. .
out encumbering
out encumbering the nation’s
the nation’s
growth. growth.
These Thesepoor; and poor;
toand
promote
to promote
low-carbon
low-carbon
industry.
industry. The poorest
The poorest
households
households
pay 30% paymore
30% per
more per
2 2
important
important
concerns concerns
miss the misspoint.
the point. unit ofunit
useful
of useful
energyenergy
than the than
richest
the richest
. .
Energy Energy
accessaccess
cannot cannot
be assuredbe assured by byDISPARATE DISPARATE
DEMAND DEMAND One solution
One solution
to these todisparate
these disparate
demands demands
progress
progress
towards towards
a simple a simple
targettarget
such as such asUrbanUrbanIndia aspires
India aspires
to havetoahave
reliable
a reliable
24/7 24/7is to deliver
is to deliver
more electricity
more electricity through through
the the
supplying
supplying
powerpower 24 hours 24 hours
a day, a7 day,
days7adays aelectricity electricity
supplysupply
— voltages
— voltages
currently
currently
drop dropgrid while
grid adopting
while adopting
cleanercleaner
energyenergy
sources.sources.
week, nationwide.
week, nationwide. India has Indiadeep
hasdivides
deep divides
in inat peakatdemand
peak demandtimes such
timesassuch
during
as during
eve- eve-The Indian
The Indian
government
government has announced
has announced
the quantity
the quantity
and quality
and quality
of energy of energy
consumed consumednings.nings. Meanwhile,
Meanwhile,
more thanmoreone-third
than one-third
of ofambitious
ambitious
plans forplans
renewable
for renewable
energy: energy:
up up
acrossacross
income income
groupsgroups and between
and between rural ruralIndia’sIndia’s
households,
households,
mostlymostly
poor andpoor and rural,to 175 gigawatts
rural, to 175 gigawatts
(GW)(GW) of installed
of installed
capac-capac-
and urban
and urban
households.
households. Fuel subsidies
Fuel subsidiesare areare notare connected
not connectedto theto electricity grid. grid.ity by ity
the electricity 2022.
by 2022.
ThereThere
are many are many
challengeschallenges
to to
poorlypoorly
designed designed
and theand strategies
the strategies
to reduce to reduceFor thoseForthat
those are,
that
blackouts
are, blackouts
last 4–16
lasthours
4–16 hoursachieving
achieving
this target,
this target,
from the fromavailability
the availability
of of
them tothemenhance
to enhance
energyenergysecurity security
are heavy-are heavy-a day. aThe day.poorest
The poorest
households
households
consume consumeresource resource
data ondatawhich
on which
to basetodecisions
base decisions
and and
handed.handed.
And because
And because
of limitedof limited
action action
by the by the managing
managing
risks torisks
the high
to thecost
highandcost
theand
huge
the huge
Renewable-energy applications variability
world’sworld’s
the global
largestlargest
the global
emitters,
carboncarbon
emitters,
there isthere
budgetbudget
littleisleft
beforebefore
little
planetary
in left in
planetary
SCIENCE
SCIENCE
IN INDIAIN INDIA
can provide heating, cooling, sourcessources
variability
acrossacross
the grid
and infrastructure.
theingrid
and infrastructure.
termsin of
terms
energy
of energy

safety limits
safety arelimits
breached.
are breached.Clean Clean
energyenergy
and and cooking,A NatureA Nature
specialspecial
mechanical issue issue
power and Meanwhile, Meanwhile,
the promise
the promise
of reliable
of reliable
elec- elec-
nature.com/indiascience
nature.com/indiascience
electricity.
alternative
alternative
growthgrowthis imperative.
is imperative. tricitytricity
through through
centralized
centralized
infrastructure
infrastructure
31
1 5 6 | 1N5A6T |U N
RAE T| UVROE L | 5V2O1 L| 51 4
2 1 M| A1Y4 2M0A1 Y
5 2015
© 2015 ©
Macmillan
2015 Macmillan
Publishers
Publishers
Limited.Limited.
All rightsAllreserved
rights reserved
 GRAND CHALLENGES REPRINT
COMMENT COMMENT

and systems remains unfulfilled. This is in India campaign, launched in September 2014,
SOURCE: REF. 7

part because most electricity utilities suf-
fer financial difficulties — they lost more
than US$19 billion in 2012–13 (ref. 3). One
solution is to tap smaller-scale distributed
renewable energy sources, primarily solar,
biomass and small-scale hydropower. Off-
grid power based on these technologies
has advantages such as network resilience,
flexibility and environmental and health
benefits4.
More than one million households in
India rely on solar off-grid systems for light-
ing. A further 20 GW of energy capacity
could be achieved if 15% of irrigation pumps
were converted to solar energy. Renewable-
energy applications can provide heating,
cooling, cooking and mechanical power as
well as electricity5.
More than 250 companies across India,
with long supply chains and networks of
village-level entrepreneurs, operate in the
decentralized clean-energy sector already.
They demonstrate that putting power in the
hands of poor people can begin a transfor-
mation in how energy access is understood
and delivered. At the same time, such rapid
growth and geographical spread could result
Proportion of total consumption
ENERGY IMBALANCE
Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) fuel is heavily
subsidized by the government, even though
it is used mainly by high-income families.
A rural electrification programme started in
2005 has improved the fairness of electricity
consumption.
1 Share of LPG subsidy, by income bracket
Richest 20%
2 Energy-consumption inequality
Electricity
1 such as refuse-derived fuels could save
calls for aggressive job creation through rapid
growth in the industrial sector.
Manufacturing consumes nearly one-
third of India’s primary energy supply, and
contributes to 16% of gross domestic prod-
uct (GDP) and more than 20% of direct
emissions8. These emissions would grow,
should India achieve its target of 25% con-
Middle 50% Poorest 30%
tribution to GDP from manufacturing.
The best opportunity for decarboniza-
The richest 20% tion, therefore, is the power sector — which
receives 39% of contributes nearly 38% of overall emissions8.
the subsidies.
Here, renewable energy could account for
about 30% of the electricity mix by 2030.
In sectors such as metal production, non-
39% metallic minerals, chemicals and textiles,
which contribute most to manufacturing
47% GDP, fuel accounts for 9–23% of all input
costs compared to the industrial-sector aver-
14% age of 5%. Energy efficiency and alternative
fuels should play a key part in decarboniz-
ing these sectors. India’s cement industry, for
instance, is one of the world’s most efficient,
but it also accounts for 7% of the country’s
LPG Fairly distributed
emissions. Here, technological advances
600 million tonnes of coal, 550 billion units

India’s richest
in variable quality of service and expensive 0.8 10% consumes of electricity and 3.4 gigatonnes of carbon
energy for poor people. More training would 20% of electricity
and 33% of LPG.
dioxide emissions between now and 2050.
help to keep up standards. 0.6 A shift to a different industrial mix is
Kamla Devi, Rajasthan’s first female solar engineer.
The challenge is to balance two types of required: away from such energy-intensive

Reth
investment: those in the centralized grid, 0.4 sectors and towards metal fabrication, man-
which are key to the aspirations of millions ufacture of computers and electronics, elec-
of higher-income households, and funds for 0.2 trical and mechanical machinery, advanced
standalone systems in isolated and under- materials, biotechnology, nanotechnology

served areas or for integrating such systems
to the grid.
RATIONAL SUBSIDIES
Another reason for pursuing renewable
energy in India is to avoid the pitfalls of a
growth strategy mostly based on fossil fuels.
Already, imports account for more than 80%
of India’s crude oil and 25% of its coal and
0 and photonics. This would lower the energy
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Proportion of total population
A well-designed programme would increase
access to modern cooking energy (electricity
and gas) for the same budget. For instance,
reducing subsidized LPG to 9 cylinders
energ
1 footprint of India’s industrial growth. ■
Arunabha Ghosh is chief executive and
Karthik Ganesan is senior research
Address
associate theonneeds
at the Council Energy, of poor and
Environment and Water, New Delhi, India.
low-carbon industries, ur
e-mail: arunabha.ghosh@ceew.in

I
1. Harish, S. M. & Tongia, R. Do Rural Residential
gas, raising worries about supply and price (instead of 12) per year per connection could
ndia’s policy-makers
Electricity have three
Consumers Cross-Subsidise their big
Urban India
volatility6. Petroleum constitutes nearly 30% save the government $724 million. Exclud- Counterparts? Exploring the Inequity in Supply in
energy goals: providing everyone with as follo
of all commodity imports, leaving India ing the richest 15% of households from the the Indian Power Sector (Brookings, 2014).
2.access
Ganesan,to energy, securing
K., & Vishnu, energy
R. Energy Access supply
in India deman
little fiscal room to shrink its large current subsidy could save $1.18 billion annually.
and trying
— Today, toand
limit carbon
Tomorrow emissions
(Council with-
on Energy, strata; t
account deficit. The savings should be redirected to increas- Environment and Water, 2014).
out3.encumbering the nation’s growth. These poor; a
India hands out generous energy subsi- ing the availability in rural areas of cleaner Power Finance Corporation. The Performance
important
of Stateconcerns missforthe
Power Utilities the point.
years 2010–11
dies, most of which are not means-tested cookstoves and biogas, and could extend LPG
Energy
to 2012–13access (PFC,cannot be assured
2013); available at http://by DISPAR
(see ‘Energy imbal- provision to 30 million more households. go.nature.com/io3psm
“The poorest progress towards a simple target such as Urban
ance’). For exam- 4. Kammen, D. M., Alstone, P. & Gershenson, D. AIP
households pay supplying power
Conf. Proc. 1652, 2414hours
(2015).a day, 7 days a electric
ple, in 2013–14 the WHAT TO MAKE IN INDIA?
30% more than week, nationwide.
5. WWF-India IndiaRE+:
and CEEW has deep divides
Renewables in
Beyond at peak
government gave Energy and climate policies are closely tied Electricity (WWF-India and CEEW, consumed
2013).
the quantity and quality of energy nings.
the richest per away $8  billion to industrial policy. Even on a low-carbon 6. Steven, D. & Ghosh, A. in The New Politics of
acrossStrategic
income groupsEnergy and and
between rural India’s
unit of useful worth of subsidies energy pathway, total primary energy con-
and urban
Challenges
Resources:
households.
Food Security
Fuel subsidies
in the 21st Century (eds Steven,are D., are no
energy.” for liquified petro- sumption in India will at least double by
poorlyO’Brien,
designed E. & James,
and the B.)strategies
40–70 (Brookings,
to reduce For tho
leum gas (LPG)7. 2030 (compared to 2011 levels). Energy 2014).
them to enhance
7. Jain, A., Agrawal,energy security
S. & Ganesan, K. are heavy-
Rationalising a day.
Yet less than half of urban households and efficiency alone — in industry, residential
handed. And because
Subsidies, Reachingof thelimited actionImproving
Underserved: by the
only 6% of rural ones exclusively use LPG and commercial spheres — cannot mitigate
world’s largest emitters,
Effectiveness of Domestic there is littleand
LPG Subsidy left in
for cooking. Traditional biomass fuels such climate change. Distribution in India (Council on Energy,
the global carbon budget before planetary
as wood account for 20% of Indian house- Although unemployment rates in India are Environment and Water, 2014).
safety limitsNetwork
8. Indian are breached.
for Climate Clean
Changeenergy and
Assessment.
holds’ energy use. The government must low (less than 5%) nearly 35% of employment
alternative growth isGas
India: Greenhouse imperative.
Emissions 2007 (Ministry
rationalize subsidies and target them better. is casual labour. The government’s Make in of Environment and Forests, 2010).
32 1 5 6 | NAT U R E | VO L 5 2 1 | 1 4 M AY 2 0 1 5
1 4 M AY 2 0 1 5 | VO L 5 2 1 | NAT U R E | 1 5 7
© 2015 M
© 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
 REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES

SVEN TORFINN/PANOS

A man with mental health problems talks to a volunteer psychiatrist from the Institute of Human Behaviour and Allied Sciences (IHBAS) in Delhi.
A counsellor at Nairobi Women’s Hospital.

tal health
Action on mental health
operation
needs global cooperation
daries, it is crucial that responses
As threats to populations transcend national boundaries, it is crucial that responses
Y. Collins and Shekhar Saxena.
to mental-health problems do too, say Pamela Y. Collins and Shekhar Saxena.

M
millions community to make the case for investment
ental-health disorders areyears,
the expand. Notable are the tens of millions community to make the case for investment
STUART FREEDMAN/PANOS

conflict in mental health. In the past three

vors of leading causes of disability
the importance of mental health has been of migrants fleeing persecution, conflict in mental health. In the past three years,
et there worldwide.
highlighted by theNearly
WHO,30% of people
in its Mental and violence, as well as the survivors of the importance of mental health has been
ers per around
Healththe worldPlan
Action experience a mood,
for 2013–20; anxi-
by leaders Ebola and other recent threats. Yet there highlighted by the WHO, in its Mental
million ety or substance-use
of countries disorder in their
in the Asia-Pacific Economiclife- are only 9 mental-health providers per Health Action Plan for 2013–20; by leaders
1
in low- time . The resources
Cooperation (APEC);required
and bytothe
address
health 100,000 people globally; an extra 1.7 million of countries in the Asia-Pacific Economic
. these conditions
ministers of theare inadequate, unequally
Commonwealth nations.2 In mental-health workers are needed in low- Cooperation (APEC); and by the health
olitical distributed,
September 2015, mentalused
inefficiently and
health static
was .
incor- and middle-income countries alone. ministers of the Commonwealth nations. In
ank and The widespread
porated into theincarceration of people
United Nations’ with
Sustainable Mental health does not lack political September 2015, mental health was incor-
HO) will mental-health
Developmentdisorders
Goals. persists. support. This month, the World Bank and porated into the United Nations’ Sustainable
opment The need and
Five years ago, demand
we, asfor mental-health
members of the the World Health Organization (WHO) will Development Goals.
care is increasing as vulnerable populations together address the broader development Five years ago, we, as members of the
7 A P R I L 2 0 1 6 | VO L 5 3 2 | NAT U R E | 2 5 33
s reserved 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 6 | VO L 5 3 2 | NAT U R E | 2 5
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
 COMMENT
GRAND CHALLENGES REPRINT

Grand Challenges in Global Mental Health
initiative, called for an equitable and global
approach to reducing the burden of mental
disorders3. The visibility of the issue has come
a long way since then. And although there
continue to be problems with the delivery of
mental-health services, funding for research
and innovation in mental health in low- and
middle-income countries has increased
substantially (albeit from a small base).
Since 2011, new investments estimated at
SVEN TORFINN/PANOS
intervention shows great promise in Iran,
for instance, can it be adapted for Poland or
Indonesia?
In the 1980s and 1990s, global collabo-
rative research led by the WHO enabled
cross-national comparisons of the incidence,
prevalence and long-term course of mental
disorders, as well as cross-cultural concep-
tualizations of mental illness and traditional
modes of understanding and management.
Over the past 15 years, many of the efforts
North–north learning. The Arctic Council,
an intergovernmental forum for the circum-
polar states, has emerged as an avenue for
launching collaborative efforts to reduce
suicide rates in those countries. Young Alaska
Native men experience the highest rates of
suicide of any demographic group in the
United States. Similarly high rates also occur
among some indigenous Arctic communi-
ties in Canada, Greenland and Russia. Local
responders can benefit from what has been

US$79.3 million have been made by the three
largest funders of mental-health research in
low- and middle-income countries (Grand
Challenges Canada, the UK Department
for International Development and the US
National Institute of Mental Health).
Researchers in such countries are tackling
the dearth of mental-health professionals
by testing the delivery of care by non-spe-
cialists — such as peers, community health
workers or primary-care providers. Others
are developing and testing applications on
smartphones and tablets to extend access
to screening and treatment4.
Now, clinicians, patients, caregivers and
researchers need to learn from each other.
The knowledge gained in all countries must
be evaluated, disseminated and adapted for
local use everywhere. Crucially, everyone
involved must start with the same mindset:
when it comes to mental health, all countries
are developing countries.
Of course, the resources available are
drastically different in the developing and
developed worlds: a teenager in Afghanistan
seeking mental-health care does so in a coun-
try that has 1 psychiatrist for every 10 million
people, notA1counsellor
per 5,000, at
as Nairobi
in, for instance, Bel-
Women’s Hospital.
gium. But no country has sufficient numbers
in global mental health have focused on
introducing high-quality research in low-
and middle-income countries to establish
an evidence-base for the delivery of services
in these nations.
More-recent research has focused on
efficacy, effectiveness and implementa-
tion in low- and middle-income countries.
Local research teams frequently collabo-
rate with colleagues in rich countries. Yet,
the relevance of this work to underserved
populations in high-income countries is
not routinely part of the global conversa-
tion. In low-income countries, the limited
infrastructure for community mental-health
care and the dismal budgetary allocations
for mental health are significant obstacles
to implementing research findings.
The status quo is not working — and
innovations are needed urgently. The fol-
lowing case studies are exemplars of the
approaches we advocate.
South–south learning. The Programme for
Improving Mental Health Care (PRIME) is
a consortium of research institutions and
ministries of health funded by the UK govern-
ment. PRIME aims to scale up mental-health
services in Ethiopia, India, Nepal, South
learned and shown to be effective elsewhere.
An Arctic Council initiative that ran
between 2013 and 2015, led by Canada,
identified promising practices for suicide
prevention and mental-health promotion,
and mapped the evidence across circumpolar
communities, noting what interventions were
acceptable where. Teams identified common
threads that made a programme scalable and
adaptable across the region. These included
having sustained funding and dedicated
physical spaces for services; easy access for
community members; having skilled workers
who were based in and were knowledgeable
about the community; and creating forums
for talking about suicide. Crucially, the effort
continues in the US-led RISING SUN initia-
tive, which engages researchers, community-
members and decision-makers to identify
shared tools.
South–north learning. BasicNeeds is a global
mental-health charity, established in 2000
in Britain, that facilitates access to employ-
ment and mental-health care for people with
mental illness. The organization refined a
model for helping people into care and work
and to advocate for their problems in Afri-
can and Asian countries, including Ghana,

Action on mental health

of trained mental-health-service providers. Africa and Uganda Tanzania, Nepal, China and Vietnam.
Nearly one-third of the US population lacks by i nt e g r at i n g “If an In Nepal, for example, a local charity that
adequate access to mental-health-care pro- these into primary intervention specialized in community-based rehabilita-
viders. There are similar shortages in parts care. Together, shows great tion adopted the BasicNeeds model. Working

needs global cooperation

of countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, these countries promise in Iran, closely with government-funded mental-
Finland, France, Japan, New Zealand and Slo- have developed for instance, can health clinics, the programme conducted
vakia. Even in wealthy countries, 40–60% of locally relevant it be adapted community outreach and facilitated access
people with severe mental disorders do not mental-health plans for Poland or to mental-health-care services. It reduced
receive the care they need5. informed by com- India?” expenses for families with ill members. Eli-
Asallthreats
Across towith
settings, those populations
the fewest transcend
munity advisory national boundaries, itfamilies
gible is crucial that responses
received training and financial
social and economic resources are least likely boards that include district health admin- support for developing and implementing a
to mental-health
to receive quality mental-health services, problems istrators,do too,
service saytraditional
users, Pamela Y. Collins
healers businessand plan Shekhar Saxena.
for income generation. People
be they in Arctic areas of Canada, inner- and police. The consortium observes cross- who received support were all earning money

M
city Glasgow orental-health
rural Sierra Leone. Today’s
disorders are the country differences
expand. Notable andare
similarities
the tens of inmillions
the 6–12 months
community later. BasicNeeds
to make received
the case for investment
global mental-health
leadingresearch
causes must lead
of disability evolving mental-health-care
of migrants systems. conflict funding
fleeing persecution, last year
in mental fromIn
health. thethe
Robert Woodyears,
past three
to interventions developedNearly
worldwide. in and30%
for such
of people The andshared framework
violence, as well for developing
as the survivors of Johnson Foundationofinmental
the importance Princeton,
healthNew
has been
underserved communities.
around the world experience a mood, anxi- and implementing plans with local adap-
Ebola and other recent threats. Yet there Jersey,
highlighted by the WHO, deprived,
to translate the model to a in its Mental
ety or substance-use disorder in their life- tations are isonly
a powerful tool. Adaptations
9 mental-health providers per inner-city
Health environment
Action Planinforthe2013–20;
United States.
by leaders
MOVING FORWARD
1
time . The resources required to address included change-management interven-
100,000 people globally; an extra 1.7 million This kind of translation of
of countries in the Asia-Pacific practices is
Economic
Mirroring
these the global community’s
conditions are inadequate, commit-
unequally tionsmental-health
for district managers
workersinare
South Africa,
needed in low- just beginning.
Cooperation Technology
(APEC);isand increasingly
by the health
mentdistributed,
to sustainable development,
inefficiently theand
used worldstatic2. a mental-health case manager
and middle-income in India,
countries and
alone. enabling innovators
ministers to make their nations.
of the Commonwealth ideas In
needsThea global commitment — financial
widespread incarceration of people with new assessment tools in Nepal. All country
Mental health does not lack political and projects public. One venue for sharing
September 2015, mental health was incor-
as well as moral —disorders
mental-health to mental health that
persists. teamssupport.
have recognized the need
This month, for systemic
the World Bank and ideasporated
is the Mental
into theHealth
UnitedInnovation Net-
Nations’ Sustainable
supports the translation of ideas and
The need and demand for mental-healthinter- changes. The next phase of the study
the World Health Organization (WHO) will is work (MHIN), funded
Development Goals. by Grand Challenges
ventions between
care is poor
increasing and rich settings
as vulnerable populations evaluation,
togetherto assess
address whether and how
the broader these
development CanadaFive andyears
managedago, by
we,a as
research
members teamofatthe
while taking into account local needs. If an changes affect disease burden. the London School for Hygiene & Tropical
34 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 6 | VO L 5 3 2 | NAT U R E | 2 5
2 6 | NAT U R E | VO L 5 3 2 | 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 6 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
 COMMENT
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and health systems often lack the funding,

DAVID KOHN/THE NEW YORK TIMES/REDUX/EYEVINE
POLARIS/EYEVINE

capacity, motivation and protocols for

monitoring and evaluation. Rarer still is a
mechanism for using the results of evalu-
ation to improve services. So people need
to be trained to monitor and evaluate new
and established approaches. Collabora-
tive research networks can facilitate this
kind of capacity building. The WHO Men-
tal Health Action Plan sets out six global
targets to achieve by 2020. For example,
it calls for a 20% increase in service cov-
erage for severe mental disorders and a
10% reduction in suicide rates globally.
Mental-health advocates, clinicians and
patient groups in each country must track
progress towards these targets.

Disseminate successes and failures. The

risks that result from sharing information
Brochures and handouts on depression, anxiety and mental health in Goa, India. In India, as in much of the about programme weaknesses must be min-
developing
Palestinian world, depression
children and
affected by anxiety
conflict are rarely
attend a UNdiagnosed or treated.
mental-health programme in the Gaza Strip. imized. Researchers rely on journal publica-
tions to disseminate information, but it is
Medicine and the WHO’s Department of Use the community’s knowledge. The much harder to publish unsuccessful trials
Mental Health and Substance Abuse (of growing evidence base on effective low-cost or evaluations. We need options beyond
which S.S. is director). Another virtual mental-health treatments is underused. research databases. Online platforms such
community is the WHO’s Global Clinical Scientific knowledge is often inaccessible to as the MHIN could be used here, espe-
Practice Network. This online platform practitioners, because they lack the time and cially by those who are not researchers who
allows thousands of clinicians from around resources to review information. We need develop new solutions to local problems.
the world to contribute to and benefit from to develop ways to synthesize new global
mental-health research. Through it, more mental-health findings routinely, and present In a world where mental-health innova-
than 12,000 clinicians from 139 countries this information so that users can apply it. The tions cross borders as people do, a mother
have participated in field trials, testing diag- global fight against HIV/AIDS presents one migrating from Khayelitsha in South
nostic guidelines in a wide range of settings. model to draw from: networks of funders, Africa to New York could meet a commu-
Such networks also break national, profes- researchers, clinicians and patients have been nity health worker who delivers a depres-
sional and linguistic boundaries to facilitate able to achieve standardized care protocols sion treatment in her home, much like the
global conversation and learning. by sharing information through interna- community counsellor at her maternal
tional working groups, society representa- health clinic in South Africa. People move
NEXT STEPS tives and UNAIDS, the UN programme for because of needs and opportunities —
To meet the mental-health needs of HIV/AIDS. Similar networks exist in vaccine so, too, must knowledge. ■

tal health
vulnerable people everywhere, we must
develop, study and practise the translation of
knowledge and ideas in all directions. How?
Here are six suggestions.
and contraception research.
Pamela Y. Collins is director of the Office
Sustain effective mental-health treat- for Research on Disparities & Global Mental
ments. A major problem is that research Health, US National Institute of Mental

operation
funding does not support continued Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Determine which innovations will scale up. delivery of services on the ground — this Shekhar Saxena is director of the
Sometimes local application is enough. The requires a greater commitment from local Department of Mental Health and
community must distil guiding principles and national governments and aid agen- Substance Abuse, World Health
that enable practitioners to decide what is cies to invest in mental health. The WHO Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
daries, it isforcrucial
right thatThis
which contexts. responses
requires health Mental Health Action Plan specifically calls e-mail: pamela.collins@nih.gov;
planners to consider system-level issues for stronger leadership and governance for saxenas@who.int
Y. Collins and
(such Shekhar
as human Saxena.
resources and financing) and mental health at the national level, includ-
1. Steel, Z. et al. Int. J. Epidemiol. 43, 476–493
community-level needs (including accept- ing adequate funding. Around $1.6 billion (2014).
millions ability and feasibility
community to makeofthe
care practices).
case In all
for investment is needed in low-income countries, and 2. Saxena, S., Thornicroft, G., Knapp, M. &
conflict contexts,
in mentalcost, complexity
health. In theand
pastfragmented
three years, between $6.6 billion and $9.33 billion in Whiteford, H. Lancet 370, 878–889 (2007).
services can curtailof
wider implementation. lower-middle-income countries, to provide 3. Collins, P. Y. et al. Nature 475, 27–30 (2011).
vors of the importance mental health has been 4. Hamdani, S. U., Minhas, F. A., Iqbal, Z. & Rahman,
et there highlighted by the WHO, in its Mental a basic package of mental health services; A. Pediatrics 136, 1166–1172 (2015).
ers per Train
Health scientists
Action Plan to for
translate
2013–20;research
by leaders this is eight and six times more, respectively, 5. Wang, P. S. et al. Lancet 370, 841–850 (2007).
million findings. A new cadre of
of countries in the Asia-Pacific global Economic
mental- than current investments6. The message that 6. Gilbert, B. J., Patel, V., Farmer, P. E. & Lu, C. PLoS
Med. 12, e1001834 (2015).
in low- health researchers
Cooperation is needed
(APEC); andtobyadapt
the treat-
health poor investment in mental health is costly
7. Vigo, D., Thornicroft, G. & Atun, R. Lancet
. ments to fit of
ministers local
thehealth systems. They
Commonwealth mustIn
nations. for all countries must be communicated to Psychiatry 3, 171–178 (2016).
olitical beSeptember
able to assess needs
2015, and must
mental be equipped
health was incor- leaders with the power to invest7.
ank and with the collaborative
porated into the United skills to engage
Nations’ deci-
Sustainable
The views expressed here do not necessarily
represent those of the US National Institute
HO) will sion-makers, clinicians
Development Goals. and community Evaluate the outcomes of treatments. of Mental Health, the US National Institutes of
opment members. Theyago,
Five years need to as
we, generate
members knowledge
of the Globally, we lack adequate information Health, the US government or the World Health
that informs cross-cultural translation. on the impact of services because clinics Organization.
7 A P R I L 2 0 1 6 | VO L 5 3 2 | NAT U R E | 2 5 35
s reserved 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 6 | VO L 5 3 2 | NAT U R E | 2 7
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
 COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS
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CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY
COLLECTIONCHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY
COLLECTION
Akshay Kumar plays the lead in Pad Man, a fictionalized biopic

India should be seen as a country of one nationa

billion minds.” magazi
Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014
an unconventional and tenderhearted man. awards
In the early 1990s, he was an assistant in a Pad
hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusua
during menstruation concerned him, so he descen
experimented with materials — first cotton, into pr
e lead in Pad
Akshay Man,
Kumaraplays
fictionalized
the lead in Pad biopic of sanitary-pad
Man, a fictionalized innovator
biopic of sanitary-pad Arunachalam
innovator Muruganantham.
then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that
Arunachalam Muruganantham. It falter
wouldn’t leak, in a process of reverse engi- a labo
India should be seen as a country of one national innovation prize, a spot on TIME neering. At first, with
collaboration whenwomen’s
it came self-help
to testinggroupshis half, in
en as a country
billion minds. of” one national innovation magazine’s ‘100 prize,
most influential on TIME
a spot people’ list prototypes, collaboration
“the onlyHe
and cooperatives. available
has spawnedwith
victimwomen’swas to risk
close selfto

BOLLYWOOD TAKES
Muruganantham’s is the inspiring story of in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian my2,500 such wife”, Muruganantham
centres, in India saidand in a a2012
dozen health i
an unconventional and tenderhearted magazine’sman. ‘100
awards,most influential
the Padma people’ listTED
Shri, in 2016. other and
In Padcooperatives.
talk.developing Man, we see Lakshmikant
countries. His pads Heretailhas spawdelinea
is the inspiring story of
In the early 1990s, he was an in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian
assistant in a Pad Man makes Muruganantham’s perfecting
at a 2,500 such centres, in India
the
fraction scientific
of the coststeps
of of
those pulverizing
from multi- stigmaa
hardware workshop. His wife’s use of rags unusual journey relatable, although it often cellulose national fibres,
brands. compressing them, sealing with th
nd tenderhearted man.concernedawards,
during menstruation him, so he the Padmadescends Shri,a littlein 2016. the pad other
with
Although Paddeveloping
non-woven Man fabric
captures andthe countries.
sanitiz-
essence by bur Hi
COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS

ON MENSTRUAL
e was an assistant in a
experimented with materials — firstPad Man makes Muruganantham’s
cotton, into preachiness. “Period poverty ingof the at a fraction of the cost of those
whole
grass-roots with ultraviolet
innovation and light.
benefitsAnd it
from female
then cellulose fibre — to make a pad that It falters, too, with is a health issue wastrue-to-life
all accomplished
portrayals usingbyfour ingenious,
a brilliant set of unapo
. His wife’s useleak,
wouldn’t of inrags unusual
a process of reverse engi- journey relatable,
a laboured first although it often actors,national
affecting women makeshift machines
the instructive thatbrands.
cost peanuts,mars
overtone com-the dance,
concerned him, sowhen
he it came todescends ahalf,
little to theIfAlthough Pad Man by captures
CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY

neering. At first, testing his in which the in countries pared

narrative. giant
it wants assembly
to reach lines
otherused countries into an
COLLECTIONCHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY

STIGMA
prototypes, “the only available victim was risk to women’s across the multinational
affected by companies.
period poverty, the song-and- celebra
materials — firstMuruganantham
my wife”, cotton, into
said preachiness.
in a 2012 “Period poverty
health is not clearly globe.” At
dance of of
the cost
might grass-roots
be being ostracized
a dampener. innovation
Theforfilm
openlyis also and Theb
— to make a pad
TED talk. In Padthat It falters, too,
Man, we see Lakshmikant with and the
delineated,
is a health issue tackling
currently a true-to-life
hidden
an urban issue,sensation.
he workedportrayals doggedly itsby elemen
Reaching a br
perfecting the scientific steps of pulverizing stigma associated ontarget
the pad’s design.inThe
audience biggest
India’s ruralchallenge
hinterland rise and
rocess ofcellulose
reverse engi-
fibres, a laboured
compressing them, sealing withfirst affecting women
the subject of menstruation is signalled wasmight findingactors,
be volunteers
difficult, thetothe
given instructive
testtaboo — unlessoverton
it. “Every- forgive
COLLECTION

n it camethetopadtesting his fabric half,

with non-woven in which
and sanitiz- theof “Sharam!” (shame) from the oneBalki
by bursts
in countries thoughtnarrative.
and I hadhave
team gonea If itfor
mad,
plan ”wants says. to
hethat. He reach oth
Bachch
ing the whole with ultraviolet light. And it female actors. Endorsing Bollywood’s finallyMeanwhile, realized thatahe couldmovement
social turn guineaispig now line: “A
y available victim
was all was using fourrisk
accomplished to women’s
ingenious, across the
unapologetic love affair with song and himself. associatedHeaffected
wore
witha the by
andperiod
pad,film. used a deflated
Muruganantham poverty, andtheBa
Subhra Priyadarshini lauds a biopic of an inspired
ntham saidmakeshiftinmachines
a 2012that cost peanuts,
health com-is not dance,
clearly the demure Gayatri suddenly breaks football
globe.”
has m dance
filled
e ntwith
ore d might
goat’s
a bi obe
blood ai sdampener.
l o gand t ,fitted
May a Th
Over
pared to the giant assembly lines used by Indian
thesanitary-pad
into an exaggerated, hip-swayinginnovator.
number to with a tube. It tookwho
Vishwakarma, him camesix years home to isolate
to rural has trav
n, we seemultinational
Lakshmikant companies. delineated, and celebrate the puberty of a girl next door. Madhyacurrently
cellulose asPradesh
the core an
adsorbing
from urban
California foursensation.
medium. years sellingR
fic steps ofAtpulverizing
the cost of being ostracized stigma
for openlyassociated The rest of the film brings in the usual That target
agoroller-coaster
to spread audience
journey wonin
menstrual-hygiene him India’s
awareness.a rura
up self
tackling a hidden issue, he worked doggedly elements of a potboiler — a love angle, the Vishwakarma has now received backing to
pressing
34
34 them,
36on the pad’s sealing
design. The biggest with the subject
challenge ofrise
rise and menstruation is signalled
of the protagonist and Gayatri’s 22 88 distribute
|| NNAATT might
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ven fabricwasand sanitiz-

finding volunteers to testby bursts offorgive-and-feel-proud
it. “Every- “Sharam!” (shame) from the missionBalki
reconciliation. has earned andher team have aPad
the sobriquet plan for t
 COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALA
COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALA
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COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY

COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY
rugal innovation is a new norm in India, emerging spo- assembly lines used by gap also inspired
multinational the 2017 Hindi film
companies.
radically in pockets of brilliance — from rural hamlets At the cost of being ostracized Toilet: Ek Prem Katha, tackling
for openly directed abyhidden Shree
to technology labs. It has even spawned a word in Hindi: Narayan Singh.
issue, he worked doggedly on the pad’s design. The biggest Significant challenges
jugaad. challenge was finding volunteers remain, however. to test it.Untreated“Everyonesewage thought is
Thanks to jugaad, bioengineer Manu Prakash is flooding choking the mighty
I had gone mad,” he says. He finally realized that he could turn Yamuna river and parts
rural schools in India with his US$1 ‘foldscope’, an origami-in- guinea pig himself. He wore of thealake pad,systemand used around Bangalore,
a deflated football for
spired microscope teaching science to tens of thousands of filled with goat’s bloodinstance. and fitted with a tube. It took him six
children. years to isolate cellulose Despite as the core India’s tradition of
adsorbing frugality,That
medium. the
It is also in this spirit that, in 2000, school dropout Aruna- roller-coaster journey rise wonofhim consumerism
a nationalcontributes innovationto prize, these
chalam Muruganantham created a do-it-yourself unit in Co- a spot on TIME magazine’s issues.‘100 Themost dark influential
side of thepeople’ economic list

COLLECTION CHRISTOPHEL/ALAMY
imbatore, Tamil Nadu, to manufacture the world’s cheapest liberalization
in 2014, and one of India’s highest civilian awards, the Padma of 1991 is the generation of
sanitary pads. Now, Muruganantham’s story hits the big screen Shri, in 2016. new waste from mines, factories and indus-
in Pad Man, billed as the first feature-length film on menstrual Pad Man makes Muruganantham’s trial agriculture. unusual The gradual switchrelata-
journey from
hygiene. ble, although it often descends natural, biodegradable
a little into preachiness.materials to plastics It fal-
‘Period poverty’ is a health issue affecting women in coun- ters, too, with a laboured is changing
first half,behaviour
in which even the risk among the rural
to women’s
tries across the globe. In Britain, 1 in 10 girls and women aged health is not clearly delineated, and the stigma associatedofwith
poor. For instance, twigs (daatuun) the
14–21 cannot afford sanitary prod- the subject of menstruation medicinal neem is tree
sig-
ucts, according to London-based “The
nalled mountain
by bursts of(Azadirachta“Sharam!” (shame) indica),
builds by once used to brush
charity Plan International UK. In
India, according to a 2015–16 gov-
“PERIOD POVERTY from the female actors. Endorsing
anBollywood’s
average unapologetic teeth, have love given affair
ernment health survey, just 58% of 100,000
with song tonnes and dance, way to plastic the demure tooth-
a Gayatri
day.” suddenly breaks brushes. The an latter
women aged 15–24 can afford to use
a hygienic method of menstrual pro-
IS A HEALTH gerated, hip-swaying are anumber
into
recyclingtonight-
exag-
cele-
tection: 78% in urban areas and 48% mare:
brateseparating
the puberty bristlesof afrom girl the
nexthandle door.is
labour-intensive
The rest ofand theunrewarding.
in rural ones. And the average varies
wildly between states — from 91% in
ISSUE AFFECTING usual elements of aalso
Doron and Jeffrey
film brings in the
discuss
potboiler —India’s
a love
Tamil Nadu to just 31% in Bihar. The waste
angle, the rise and rise of the‘ship-
market. The world’s largest pro-
breaking’
tagonistindustry is in Alang.forgive-and-
Here, retired
rest resort to rags, leaves and even
ash. This can result in serious health
WOMEN IN ships are imported
feel-proud
and Gayatri’s
and dismantled,
reconciliation. Bachchan and
risks, such as toxic shock syndrome, their parts and
delivers the materials — primarily line:
applause-inducing steel
—“America
are sold forhas profit. India is also a leading
Akshay
of sanitary-pad
Akshay and
work.
Kumarleadplays
Kumar
innovator toArunachalam
plays absence
thelead
the leadin from
inPadPad Man,
Man, school
Muruganantham. or
aafictionalized
fictionalized biopicof
biopic ofsanitary-pad
sanitary-padinnovator
COUNTRIES
innovatorArunachalam
ArunachalamMuruganantham.
Muruganantham.
exporter of hair,
Superman,
a
and Batman. India has Pad Man!” market
Spiderman
worth almost
Pad Man attempts to open up this US$400 Over million.
the past Manydecade, Hindus have their
Muruganan-
al innovation Indiaprize,
India should
should beseen
a spot
be seen
on as asaacountry
TIME countrycollaboration
ofofoneone national
national
with women’s innovation
innovation self-help prize,
prize, aaspot
groups spoton onTIMETIME collaborationwith
collaboration withwomen’s
women’sself-helpself-helpgroups groups
hair cut inhas temples to demonstrate devotion,
ine’s ‘100
4, and one
billion
billion taboo
most
sion
minds.
minds.
Muruganantham’s
Muruganantham’s
of India’s
topic
influential”” for
through highest
much-needed
people’
narrative
isis
list
theinspiring
civilian
the inspiring sparked
and
story
story
discus-
cooperatives.
ofofby centres,
2,500 such
magazine’s
magazine’s
in2014,
in
He has
2014,in and
and
‘100
‘100
India
spawned
oneand
one
mostinfluential
most influential
ofIndia’s
of India’s
a dozen
ACROSS THE
close to people’people’list
highestcivilian
highest civilian
list and and
2,500 such
2,500 such
tham
andcooperatives.
cooperatives.
much
Indiacentres, of
travelled
He
— first in
centres,
Hehas
the
hasspawned
waste
selling
Indiahis
inIndia
acrossclose
spawned
hair
and
and
is
villages
close
sent
sanitary
aadozen
toto
dozen
to in
China
pads,
melodrama toand
be made theninto wigs. up self-sustaining
s, the Padmaan Shri, in 2016.and
anunconventional
unconventional and music. Like
andtenderhearted
tenderhearted other Shree
man.
man. developing awards,
awards, thePadma
countries.
the Padma His Shri,Shri,in
pads in2016.
2016.
retail otherdeveloping
other developing
Doron and Jeffrey
setting
countries.
countries. Hispads
His padsretail
analyse
retail
the iso-
ManIn
al journey
In
makes
theNarayan
the
Ek
hardware
hardware
early
early
Prem
relatable,
1990s,
workshop.
workshop.
Singh’s
Muruganantham’s
1990s,
Katha,
althoughHis
hewas
he was
His
2017
an
centred
wife’suse
wife’s
it often
filmat aToilet:
anassistant
assistant
around
useof
in
ofrags
in aa
fraction
the
rags brands.
national
of the Pad
Pad cost
unusualjourney
unusual
Man
Man of those makes
makes
journeyrelatable,
Muruganantham’s
fromMuruganantham’s
multi-
relatable,although
GLOBE.”
althoughititoften often
pad-making
atataafraction
fraction
lated,
with
nationalbrands.
national
ofofthe
thecost
small-scale
brands. women’s
costunits
ofthose
of those
attempts
self-help
in fromcollaboration
from multi-
multi-
of groups
large Indian
and
problem of open defecation, it has companies
cooperatives. such as
He ITC
has and
spawnedthe Ramky
close
nds a duringduring menstruation
littlelabour-intensive
menstruation concerned concerned him, so he
he — Pad descends
Man captures a little Although Pad
Pad Man captures
Man captures the essence
captured the nature ofhim, ofthe
so
Although
sector descends a littlethe essence in the brass-working Although
Group
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 COMMENT COMMENT
PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY
NANDY/BARCROFT
MOHAMMAD
SUSHAVAN MEDIA/ GETTY IMAGES
REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES

A child carries bricks on her head as a part of her daily job in West Bengal, India. Thousands of migrants from Bihar and Jharkhand work as unskilled labourers in
the brick fields of West Bengal.
Children
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often have in asometimes
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Bangladesh.
dangerous Poor adolescents in low- and middle-income countries often have to work, sometimes in dangerous conditions.
conditions.

oungUnderstand
people young people
in low-income countries
me countries
For
and social most of the world’s
marginalization adolescents, poverty and social marginalization influence
influence
health
argue Robert Blummuch
and Jomore than risk-taking does, argue Robert Blum and Jo Boyden.
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N
rces to mitigate early 90% of current
impaired evidenceand
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premature impaired development and premature
MICs also tend adolescence comes
death. In fact, from
since research
1990, thereinhave been
such risks. Adolescents in LMICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been
responsibilities high-income countries.inYet
fewer improvements nine-for adoles-
health to have many more family responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles-
ome countries. tenths of cents
people aged10–19)
(aged between and10 and people
young 24 than their peers in high-income countries.
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oung peoplelive in in low- and middle-income
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than for any otherCurrently, millions of young people in 15–24) in these countries than for any other
o poor health, (LMICs), where this
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and how this affects their health. This would
issue be just as important
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nature.com/collections/adolescence
than and
being in high-income
productivity countries,
globally — but it being and productivity globally — but it

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MOHAMMAD PONIR HOSSAIN/NURPHOTO/GETTY

means abandoning Western assumptions
about adolescence being predominantly
a time for risk-taking. It also means find-
ing better ways to reach adolescents — for
instance, through the use of mobile phones,
social media and community-based strate-
gies — and applying approaches such as web-
based surveys and interactive data-collection
methods to build a richer picture of the forces
shaping young people’s lives.
POVERTY TRAP
Studies show that adolescents in LMICs who
are subject to poverty and restricted access to
health, education and other services are also
more likely to be exposed to environmental
toxins and extreme weather events, such as
droughts, than their wealthier peers.
And this pile-up of multiple stressors is
likely to worsen in the coming years. Accord-
ing to the Notre-Dame Global Adaptation
Initiative (http://gain.nd.edu), out of the 100
countries most vulnerable to climate change,
42 are low-income countries, 33 are lower
middle-income countries and 14 are upper
middle-income countries. Meanwhile, rapid
and unplanned urbanization is driving more
overcrowding, road injuries, noise pollution
and the accumulation of toxins such as lead2.
In LMICs, adolescents from minor-
ity communities tend to be significantly
more disadvantaged than those in majority
populations. A 2009 study of the health and
well-being of more than 10,000 individuals
in Vietnam aged 14 to 25 found that young
people from ethnic minorities fared worse
than those from the Kinh majority in every
measure3. For example, 10% of young peo-
ple from ethnic minorities reported being
illiterate, compared with 1% of Kinh young
Children working in a shipyard in Bangladesh. Poor adolescents in low- and middle-income countries often have to work, sometimes in dangerous conditions.
people.
Gender is another major determinant of
health differences. The pilot of the ongo-
ing Global Early Adolescent Study (www.
geastudy.org/), which R.B. is directing, col-
lected predominantly quantitative data
between 2015 and 2017 from about 35 fami-
lies in 15 countries on 5 continents. These
data indicate that, compared with their
brothers and male peers, girls in LMICs
tend to experience more social isolation as
they move from childhood to adolescence,
and have fewer opportunities in education,
recreation and exploration.
Opportunities for education can be just as
important as nutrition for adolescent health.
According to a 2014 study, for instance, there
is a strong link between teenage pregnancy
and low levels of literacy in Africa4. And a
wealth of literature shows that deficiencies
early in life cast a long shadow.
As part of Young Lives (www.younglives.
org.uk), an ongoing longitudinal study
directed by J.B.,
researchers have “Adolescents
been collecting infor- are the least
mation about 12,000 likely of any age
children in Ethiopia,
group to access
India, Peru and Viet-
nam for 15 years. In
conventional
all four countries,
health
c h i l d re n w h o s e services.”
growth is stunted
when they are around one year old are likely
to remain so until they are at least 15 (ref. 5).
Those who experience an early nutritional
disadvantage are more likely to have difficulty
progressing through school. And stunting at
age 8 correlates with lower scores on measures
of self-efficacy, self-esteem and educational
aspirations at age 12 (ref. 6).
Another characteristic of life for poor
adolescents in LMICs is combining the pur-
suit of education with work. Young Lives
data suggest that the time devoted to educa-
tion remains broadly constant for girls and
boys aged 8 to 15. But as they grow older,
adolescents tend to do more work, either for
pay or as part of family life. Indeed, they are
frequently the primary carers of younger sib-
lings or incapacitated adults. Some are even
the principal breadwinners in their house-
holds (see ‘Age of responsibility’).
Employment can affect health during
adolescence in many ways. Young workers
commonly suffer more accidents than adult
workers, and they are particularly suscepti-
ble when exposed to chemical toxins from
mining or agricultural work, for example7.
NO TIME TO PLAY
Experts in the Global North generally
assume that adolescence is a carefree time
of emerging independence, social explora-
tion and risk-taking. This way of thinking
carries over to adolescent-focused health
programmes and policies in LMICs, which
regularly focus on violence, sexually trans-
mitted infections and teen pregnancies.
Too many programmes fail to understand
what drives behaviour in the first place, and
ignore the broader risks that young people
face from poverty, work, social stigma or
exclusion from quality services. Also, many
centre around the provision of clinical ser-
vices, even though adolescents are the least
likely of any age group to access conventional
health services8.
With the right approach, community-
based interventions geared towards reduc-
ing a behavioural problem such as violence
can also improve the overall health and well-
being of young people. Reducing violence

AGE OF RESPONSIBILITY
Understand young people
SOURCE: P. ESPINOZA REVOLLO & C. PORTER, UNPUBLISHED DATA
As they grow up, young people in low- and middle-income countries tend to devote more of their time to work that helps sustain their

in low-income countries
families. Under-reporting of work is likely because those surveyed described ‘a typical day last week’ when school was in session.

Time spent in: Work Education

12
ETHIOPIA INDIA PERU VIETNAM

For most of the world’s adolescents, poverty and social marginalization influence
8
health much more than risk-taking does, argue Robert Blum and Jo Boyden.
Hours per day

N
early 90% of current evidence about and there are fewer resources to mitigate impaired development and premature
adolescence comes from research in such risks. Adolescents in LMICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been
high-income countries. Yet nine- to have many more family responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles-
4 tenths of people aged between 10 and 24 than their peers in high-income countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged
live in low- and middle-income countries Currently, millions of young people in 15–24) in these countries than for any other
(LMICs), where this life stage looks very LMICs are condemned to poor health, age group1.
different (see ‘Worlds apart’). We need to better understand the every-
In LMICs, young people’s health and well-
being tend to be more severely affected by
ADOLESCENCE day realities of adolescents’ lives in LMICs
and how this affects their health. This would
0 A Nature special issue
cultural,
7 socio-economic and environmental 17enable
5 targeted9 investment
11 13 to 15improve well-
5 9 11 13 15 17 5 7 9 11 13 15 nature.com/collections/adolescence
17 5 7 9 11 13 15 7 17
risk factors than in high-income countries, Age (years)
being and productivity globally — but it
40 2 2 F E B R UA RY 2 0 1 8 | VO L 5 5 4 | N AT U R E | 4 3 5
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 COMMENT COMMENT
REPRINT GRAND CHALLENGES

they access resources, who controls their

earnings, and so on. Researchers must also
work out how health measures can be inte-
grated into schools or mobile-phone applica-
tions, rather than delivered solely through
medical facilities. This is not simply about
making schools a hub for health education
and services; greater flexibility in timetables
or the provision of catch-up classes and
vocational measures, for example, could
encourage more working adolescents to stay
in school for longer.
Finally, international organizations, such
as the World Health Organization, the Inter-
national Labour Organization and the United
Nations Children’s Fund, should direct much
greater effort towards economic analyses and
surveys of occupational and environmental
hazards, exposures to social risks and the
mental health of young people in LMICs.
The second decade of life presents an
extraordinary opportunity to improve peo-
ple’s health over the long term. And threats
to human health and well-being are becom-
ing more acute in our rapidly urbanizing,
industrializing world, with rising environ-
mental risks and the potential for reductions
in youth employment opportunities as a
result of expanding technologies.
Only with a realistic understanding of the
An applechild
A street seller in Changzhi,
uses China.
a cellphone Texta messages
outside can
closed shop provide
in New health information for adolescents.
Delhi. lives of young people in LMICs, grounded in
the social, economic and political contexts of
and the incidence of HIV/AIDS are among bottom-up approach in which adolescents their everyday lives, do we stand a chance of
IMAGES
REUTERS

the principal aims of South Africa’s activity- are treated as partners in improving their shaping their futures for the better. ■
based Waves for Change surf schools, Soul health and well-being, not just the recipients
SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP/GETTY

Buddyz Clubs and AMANDLA EduFoot- of change. Likewise, the design and imple- Robert Blum is the director of the Johns
ball programmes, for example. But these mentation of interventions must draw on Hopkins Urban Health Institute in Baltimore,
programmes also improve young people’s evidence of what works, for whom and why. Maryland, USA, and lead researcher on the
fitness, psychological well-being and ability This means that investigators must work Global Early Adolescent Study. Jo Boyden
to form friendships and take responsibility in communities and across all settings — not is professor of international development
come countries often have to work, sometimes in dangerous conditions.
for others. just in hospitals and clinics — to understand and director of the Young Lives study at the

oung people
Donors, governments and non-govern- how young people spend their time, how University of Oxford, UK.
mental organizations in LMICs are expand- e-mails: rblum@jhu.edu;
ing their repertoire of approaches. But better WORLDS APART jo.boyden@qeh.ox.ac.uk
SOURCE: A. KÅGESTEN ET AL. PLOS ONE 11, E0157805 (2016)

research tools and more community-based

me countries
Most research on 10- to 24-year-olds comes
initiatives are needed that focus specifically from high-income countries. But nine-tenths 1. Mokdad, A. H. et al. Lancet 387, 2383–2401
of this age group live in low- or
on understanding and enhancing resilience middle-income countries (LMICs).
(2016).
2. Wachs, T. D. & Rahman, A. in Handbook of Early
among adolescents. Childhood Development Research and Its Impact
Digital technologies offer fresh ways on Global Policy (eds Britto, P. R., Engle, P. L. &
to improve health and well-being (see 1 in 4 people are aged Super, C. M.) 85–122 (Oxford Univ. Press, 2013).
and social marginalization
page 432). influence
Various surveys conducted over between 10 and 24; 90%
live in LMICs.
3. Vietnamese Ministry of Health & General
Statistics Office of Vietnam. Survey and
argue Robert the past Blum
decade and
indicate Jo
that Boyden.
young peo-
ple in LMICs value the unrestricted access
Assessment of Vietnamese Youth (2009).
4. Odejimi, O. & Bellingham-Young, D. J. Hum.
to information and the privacy that the Growth Dev. 24, 135–141 (2014).
5. Georgiadis, A. et al. SSM Popul. Health 2, 43–54
Internet affords, and prefer digital media (2016).
rces to mitigate impaired development and premature
over other delivery channels for health 6. Dercon, S. & Sánchez, A. Econ. Hum. Biol. 11,
MICs also tend death. In fact, since 1990, there have been 426–432 (2013).
information9. Several investigators have
responsibilities fewer improvements in health for adoles- 7. International Programme on the Elimination of
already tried to exploit these preferences.
ome countries. cents (aged 10–19) and young people (aged Child Labour. Children in Hazardous Work (ILO,
oung people in
In a recent randomized trial in Ghana, for
15–24) in these countries than for any other 7.6 BILLION 2011).
8. Patton, G. C. et al. Lancet 387, 2423–2478
instance, text messages improved girls’ GLOBAL
o poor health, age group1. 10 (2016).
knowledge about reproductive health . POPULATION
We need to better understand the every- 9. Byrne, J., Kardefelt-Winther, D., Livingstone, S.
Evidence on the effectiveness of digital
CE
& Stoilova, M. Global Kids Online Research
day realities of adolescents’ lives in LMICs
health information in changing behaviours Synthesis, 2015–2016 (UNICEF Office of
and how this affects their health. This would
issue is needed, however. Research Innocenti and London School of
enable targeted investment to improve well- Economics and Political Science, 2016).
ons/adolescence Importantly, researchers, policymakers, 10. Rokicki, S., Cohen, J., Salomon, J. A. & Fink, G.
being and productivity globally — but it
practitioners and others must deploy a Am. J. Publ. Health 107, 298–305 (2017).

2 2 F E B R UA RY 2 0 1 8 | VO L 5 5 4 | N AT U R E | 4 3 5 41
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 Review ARticle
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models

in the developing-world context
Kumar Biswajit
Kumar Biswajit Debnath 
Debnath    ** and
and Monjur
Monjur Mourshed 
Mourshed    

Energy planning
Energy planning models
models (EPMs)
(EPMs) support
support multi-criteria
multi-criteria assessments
assessments of of the
the impact
impact of
of energy
energy policies
policies on
on the
the economy
economy and and envi-
envi-
ronment.
ronment. Most
Most EPMs
EPMs originated
originated inin developed
developed countries
countries andand are
are primarily
primarily aimed
aimed at
at reducing
reducing greenhouse
greenhouse gasgas emissions
emissions while
while
enhancing
enhancing energy
energy security.
security. In
In contrast,
contrast, most,
most, if
if not
not all,
all, developing
developing countries
countries are
are predominantly
predominantly concerned
concerned with
with increasing
increasing
energy access.
energy access. Here,
Here, we
we review
review thirty-four
thirty-four widely
widely used
used EPMs
EPMs to to investigate
investigate their
their applicability
applicability to
to developing
developing countries
countries and
and find
find
an
an absence
absence ofof consideration
consideration of of the
the objectives,
objectives, challenges,
challenges, andand nuances
nuances ofof the
the developing
developing context.
context. Key
Key deficiencies
deficiencies arise
arise from
from
the
the lack
lack of
of deliberation
deliberation ofof the
the low
low energy
energy demand
demand resulting
resulting from
from lack
lack of
of access
access and
and availability
availability of
of supply.
supply. Other
Other inadequacies
inadequacies
include the
include the lack
lack of
of consideration
consideration of of socio-economic
socio-economic nuances
nuances such
such asas the
the prevalence
prevalence ofof corruption
corruption and
and resulting
resulting cost
cost inflation,
inflation,
the
the methods
methods forfor adequately
adequately addressing
addressing thethe shortcomings
shortcomings in in data
data quality,
quality, availability
availability and
and adequacy,
adequacy, and
and the
the effects
effects of
of climate
climate
change. We
change. We argue
argue for
for further
further research
research onon characterization
characterization andand modelling
modelling ofof suppressed
suppressed demand,
demand, climate
climate change
change impacts,
impacts, and
and
socio-political
socio-political feedback
feedback in
in developing
developing countries,
countries, and
and the
the development
development of of contextual
contextual EPMs.
EPMs.

H
uman activities
uman activities have have led
led toto rapid
rapid changes
changes in in atmospheric
atmospheric con- con- are concerned
are concerned with with increasing
increasing access access to to electricity,
electricity, which which is is consid-
consid-
centrations
centrations of of greenhouse
greenhouse gas gas (GHG)
(GHG) emissions
emissions 1, contribut-
1
, contribut- ered
ered aa prerequisite
prerequisite for for development
development and and economic
economic empowerment,
empowerment,
ing
ing to
to and
and amplifying
amplifying global global climate
climate change
change2.. Fossil
2
Fossil fuels
fuels and
and as
as reflected
reflected by by the
the inclusion
inclusion of
of energy
energy as as aa goal
goal in in the
the Sustainable
Sustainable
land-use change
land-use change (for (for example,
example, throughthrough deforestation
deforestation and and farming)
farming) Development Goals
Development Goals10 10
.. The
The current
current CO CO2 emissions
emissions per per capita
capita of of
2
are
are two
two primary
primary sources
sources of of GHG
GHG emissions,
emissions, of of which
which the the emissions
emissions developing
developing countries
countries are are low,
low, often
often much
much below below the the global
global average
average
from land
from land useuse has
has been
been nearly
nearly constant
constant33,, while
while thethe emissions
emissions from from (Fig. 1c).
(Fig. 1c). Hence,
Hence, emission
emission reduction
reduction is is not
not always
always on on the
the agenda
agenda forfor
fossil-fuel
fossil-fuel based
based4 energy
energy systems
systems increased
increased by by 50%50% between
between 2000 2000 developing
developing countries,
countries, even even atat aa cursory
cursory level,
level, except
except for
for aa few
few large
large
and
and 2013
2013 (ref.
(ref. 4). ). Current
Current energyenergy and and5 transportation
transportation systems systems can can countries
countries such such as as China
China and and India
India11..
11

result in
result in substantial
substantial GHG GHG discharges
discharges5,, with with aa likely
likely global
global mean
mean Energy planning
Energy planning models models (EPMs)(EPMs) play play an an essential
essential rolerole in in the
the
temperature
temperature increase
increase between
between 2.0–4.9
2.0–4.9 °C, °C, with
with aa median
median of of 3.2
3.2 °C°C development
development of of the
the energy
energy sectorsector at at global,
global, national
national and and regional
regional
by 2100 (ref. 6). Even if current GHG concentrations remain con-
6
by 2100 (ref. ). Even if current GHG concentrations remain con- levels
levels by by enabling
enabling informed
informed decision-making.
decision-making. EPMs EPMs are are especially
especially
stant, the
stant, the world
world will will experience
experience aa few few centuries
centuries of of rising
rising tempera-
tempera- crucial as
crucial as significant
significant investments
investments in in innovative
innovative energy energy research
research and and
ture
ture and
and ocean
ocean levellevel7,8.. Therefore,
7,8
Therefore, substantial
substantial reductions
reductions in in global
global planning
planning are are required
required for for decarbonization
decarbonization12.. The
12
The development
development of
of
GHG emissions
GHG emissions are are essential
essential for for mitigating
mitigating climate
climate change.
change. EPMs started
EPMs started in in the
the late
late 1950s
1950s andand early
early 1960s
1960s (ref.(ref. 13
13) but intensi-
) but intensi-
In
In addition
addition to to the
the infrastructural
infrastructural elements
elements of of national
national energy
energy fied
fied after
after the
the oil
oil crisis
crisis of of the
the 1970s
1970s in in light
light of of the
the realization
realization of of the
the
systems
systems (that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access
(that is, generation, distribution, and transmission), access effects of exogenous political events on global
effects 14of exogenous political events on global and national energy and national energy
to grid
to grid electricity
electricity and and purchasing
purchasing power power of of the
the population
population influ-influ- supply14.. It
supply It was
was necessary,
necessary, then, then, toto critically
critically assessassess thethe interrelation-
interrelation-
ence
ence energy
energy end-use
end-use and and GHGGHG emissions.
emissions. Figure
Figure 1a 1a illustrates
illustrates that
that ships
ships between
between the the sources
sources of of energy
energy supply
supply and and demand,
demand, as as well
well as
as
both
both access
access to to electricity
electricity and and per per capita
capita COCO22 emissions
emissions are are more
more to identify
to identify pathways
pathways for
for long-term
long-term development
development of
of the
the energy
energy sec-
sec-
significant in
significant in high-income
high-income countries,countries, compared
compared to to low-income
low-income and and tor15
tor
15
.. The
The drive
drive forfor global
global sustainability
sustainability in in thethe 1990s
1990s — — spurred
spurred in in
middle-income
middle-income developing developing countries.
countries. Most Most developed
developed countriescountries particular
particular by by the
the Rio
Rio Earth
Earth Summit
Summit in in 1992
1992 and and the the 1995
1995 report
report
can ensure
can ensure 100%
100% access access to to electricity,
electricity, which
which onlyonly aa few few develop-
develop- of the
of the Intergovernmental
Intergovernmental Panel Panel on on Climate
Climate Change Change (IPCC) (IPCC)16 16 —
—
ing
ing countries
countries can can match.
match. In In 2010,
2010, annual
annual perper capita
capita CO CO22 emissions
emissions brought
brought forward the issue of GHG emissions and their impact
forward the issue of GHG emissions and their impact on on
ranged
ranged fromfrom 0.02–15.14
0.02–15.14 tCO tCO22 in in low
low and
and middle-income
middle-income coun- coun- the
the environment.
environment. As As aa result,
result, further
further modelsmodels were were developed
developed for for
tries, compared
tries, compared to to 1.6–42.63
1.6–42.63 tCO tCO2 in in high-income
high-income ones. ones. In In general,
general, projecting climate
projecting climate change
change and and investigating
investigating the the environmental
environmental
2
there
there isis aa positive
positive association
association between
between electricity
electricity access
access and and GHG
GHG impact
impact and and itsits mitigation.
mitigation. However,
However, given given that that some
some two-thirds
two-thirds of of
emissions.
emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle-
One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG
global GHG emissions emissions come
come from
from the
the electricity,
electricity, heat,
heat, and
and trans-
trans-
income country,
income country, which which had had 98%
98% access
access to to electricity
electricity but but perper capita
capita portation sectors
portation sectors44,, the
the integration
integration of of the
the environmental
environmental aspects aspects of of
CO
CO22 emissions
emissions of of 1.7
1.7 tCO
tCO22,, well
well below
below thethe average
average of of 2.09
2.09 tCOtCO22 for
for energy
energy demand and
demand and supply
supply within
within EPMs EPMs became became necessary,
necessary, pro- pro-
all low
all low and
and middle-income
middle-income countries countries in in 2010.
2010. This
This is is because
because 93.3%
93.3% viding aa comprehensive
viding comprehensive picture picture of of the
the interrelationships
interrelationships between between
of
of Costa
Costa Rica’s
Rica’s energy
energy was was from
from renewable
renewable resources,
resources, of
of which
which energy,
energy, environment,
environment, and and climate
climate change.
change.
hydroelectric sources accounted
hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. ).for 75.8% (ref. 9).
9
Over
Over the the past
past four
four decades,
decades, aa substantial
substantial number number of of EPMs
EPMs have have
As aa result,
As result, future
future energy
energy planning
planning objectives
objectives of of developed
developed and and been developed
been developed by by researchers
researchers and and organizations
organizations in in different
different coun-
coun-
developing
developing countries
countries are are distinctly
distinctly different.
different. In In developed
developed coun- coun- tries,
tries, with
with various
various objectives
objectives and and scopes.
scopes. EPMs EPMs range range from from thethe
tries,
tries, the
the focus
focus todaytoday is is on
on reducing
reducing emissions
emissions while while enhancing
enhancing holistic
holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of aa coun-
— modelling the partial or whole energy system of coun-
energy security,
energy security, primarily
primarily characterized
characterized by by aa shift
shift from
from fossil
fossil fuels
fuels try, region
try, region or or the
the world
world — — to
to the
the more
more sectoral
sectoral — — providing
providing projec-
projec-
towards
towards moremore renewable
renewable resources.
resources. However,
However, developing
developing countries
countries tions
tions of of the
the energy
energy needs
needs of, of, for
for example,
example, transportation
transportation or or industry.
industry.

BRE
BRE Trust
Trust Centre
Centre for
for Sustainable
Sustainable Engineering,
Engineering, School
School of
of Engineering,
Engineering, Cardiff
Cardiff University,
University, Cardiff,
Cardiff, UK.
UK. *e-mail:
*e-mail: DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk
DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk
42 Nature eNergy
eNergy || VOL
VOL 3
3 || MARCH
MARCH 2018
2018 || 172–184
172–184 || www.nature.com/natureenergy
www.nature.com/natureenergy
172
172 Nature
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
Nature. All
All rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
 rgy NaTurE
NaTurE ENErgy
ENErgy Review
REPRINT GRAND ARticle
CHALLENGES Re
a
a 100
100
eristics of existing energy planning models
Low
Low and
and middle
middle income
income High
High income
income Qatar
Qatar
Input variablesa Methodb Kuwait Outp
Kuwait
United States
States
Qul Qua Fin agg Disaag re OP
Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam eC SM eQLuxembourg
LuxembourgaF United en
Bahrain Australia
Australia
system Bahrain
Russian Canada
Russian Federation
Federation Canada
Belgium
10 ✓ ✓ ✓
Finland
Finland Belgium
Denmark ✓
10 Austria
Austria Denmark
✓ ✓ Palau
Palau ✓ Slovenia Malaysia
capita)

Argentina
Argentina Slovenia Malaysia
percapita)

Hungary
Hungary France
Mongolia France
odel Guyana Mongolia Latvia Lithuania
Lithuania
Korea,
Korea, Dem.
Dem. People’s
People’s Rep.
Rep. Guyana Latvia Algeria
✓ ✓ ✓
Jamaica Algeria
Grenadines ✓
d Jamaica
tonsper

St.
St. Vincent and
and the
VincentMarshall Grenadines
theIslands Mauritius
Mauritius
Peru
Peru Singapore
Marshall Islands Singapore
✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓e ✓ Brazil ✓
(metrictons

Angola
Angola Namibia
Namibia
Lesotho Fiji
Fiji Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein Brazil
India
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ India ✓ e Honduras ✓
2emissions(metric

1 Honduras
1
Senegal
0✓
0 ✓ 25 ✓
25 ✓
Zimbabwe
50
50 ✓
Senegal ✓e
75
75 100
100 ✓
Zimbabwe Bhutan
CO2emissions

Benin
Benin Bhutan
pply model Mauritania
Mauritania Kenya
Kenya
Bangladesh
Bangladesh Sri
Sri Lanka
Lanka Tajikistan
Tajikistan
✓ ✓ ✓ Haiti ✓ Lao ✓ ✓
Liberia
Liberia Haiti Afghanistan Lao PDR
PDR
Afghanistan
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Guinea ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
CO

Tanzania
Tanzania Guinea
Eritrea
0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓e ✓f ✓
Eritrea Comoros
Comoros
0.1 Nepal
Nepal
Somalia
✓ ✓ ✓ Somalia ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓ ✓
Madagascar
✓ ✓ Madagascar ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓
Chad
Chad
✓ Burundi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Burundi
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Access to
Access to electricity
electricity (%
(% of
of population)
population)
0.01 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
0.01
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
b
b ✓ ✓ cc ✓ ✓ d
d ✓ ✓
16
16 100
100 40
40
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
capita)
percapita)

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 35
35 ✓
capita)
percapita)

12 ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓
(tCO2 2per

12 10
10 30
30
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓d (Gt)
emissions(Gt) ✓ ✓ ✓
capita(tCO
(tCO2 2per

25
25
model
CO2 2emissions
emissions(tCO

percapita

✓ 8
8 ✓ ✓ ✓ 11 20
20 ✓ ✓
CO2 2emissions

1972
1972 1978
1978 1984
1984 1990
1990 1996
1996 2002
2002 2008
2008
emissionsper

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 15
15
✓ ✓
CO
CO2 2emissions

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
4
4 0.1
0.1 10
10
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
CO

5
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 5
CO

0 ✓
0 ✓ ✓
0.01
0.01 ✓ 0
0 ✓
1992 1995
1992 1995 1998
1998 2001
2001 2004 2007 2010
2004 2007 2010 1960
1960 1970
1970 1980
1980 1990
1990 2000
2000 2010
2010
✓ ✓ ✓
Year
Year Year
Year Year
Year
✓World ✓ Middle ✓ Bangladesh ✓ ✓
World Middle income
income Bangladesh Afghanistan
Afghanistan Costa
Costa Rica
Rica World
World Lower
Lower middle
middle income
income
✓Upper
Upper middle ✓
middle income
income ✓ Nigeria
Nigeria Maldives
Maldives Philippines
Philippines High income
High income ✓ Low
Low income
income ✓
Low
Low and
and middle
middle income
income Canada
Canada United
United Kingdom
Kingdom United
United States
States Upper
Upper middle
middle income
income
✓High income
High income ✓ ✓ Belgium
Belgium World
World ✓d Middle income
Middle income ✓
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Fig. 11 || CO
Fig. CO2 emissions
emissions characteristics.
characteristics. a,a, CO
CO2 emissions
emissions versus
versus access
access to
to electricity
electricity in
in high-income
high-income and
and low-income
low-income countries
countries in
in 2010.
2010. Access
Access to to electricity
electricity
✓
2 ✓ 2 ✓ ✓ ✓
in
in low-income
low-income and and middle-income
middle-income countries
countries ranges
ranges from
from 3.5–100%
3.5–100% ofof the
the population.
population. InIn contrast,
contrast, the
the figure
figure is
is 72.6–100%
72.6–100% in in high-income countries. b,
high-income countries. b, CO
CO22
emissions ✓per capita for the ✓period 1992–2011. c, CO ✓
emissions per capita in selected developed and developing countries for the ✓ 1972–2011. d, CO2
period ✓
emissions per capita for the period 1992–2011. c, CO2 emissions per capita in selected developed and developing countries for the period 1972–2011. d, CO2
2
emissions ✓
emissions in countries
in countries by
by income
income group in
✓ group in✓the period
the period 1960–2011.
1960–2011. The
The income
income✓ group classification
group classification used
used here
here is
is that
that from
from the
the World
World Bank
Bank list
list of
of economies
economies ✓
3 (July
(July 2015):
2015):34 low
low income,
income, US$1,045
32 or
US$1,045 or less; lower
lower middle
less;10 middle27income,
income, US$1,046–4,125;8 upper
US$1,046–4,125; upper13 middle
middle income,
income,
10 US$4,126–12,735;
11 and
US$4,126–12,735; and high
high7income,
income, US$12,736
3 or
US$12,736 or 30
more. Data is taken from
more. Data is taken from ref. .ref. 9.
9

ve); Qua (quantitative); Fin (financial); Agg (aggregated); and Disag (disaggregated). bMethods: RE (regression); OP (optimization)
ulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). cOutput types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co

Given
Given that
that the
the IEA
IEA estimates
estimates the
the growth
growth inin energy
energy demand
demand overover the
the developing
developing countries
countries but
but did
did not
not present
present details
details on
on relevant
relevant socio-
socio-
next 23 years will be higher in developing Asian countries than the
next 23 years will17be higher in developing Asian countries than the economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger et
economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger et al.
20
al.20
rest of
nd competition
rest of the
the world
world17in and the
and future emissions
future emissions
energy fromindustry
from growth regions
growth regions 22will categorized EPMs
. Policy
will categorized EPMs into four
into
centralized four types:
types:one
energyto
energy system
system optimization;
an optimization;
intelligent an
s need be critical
bein the
the current 1.5
1.5 °C
°C temperature
temperature discourse
discourse1,, or
it
it is
is essen- energy
energy system simulation; power
power system
system and electricity market
1
betocritical in more currentcountry-specific regional,
essen- systemcial
simulation;
vulnerabilities and inelectricity market
households. A
ferences tial to
tial in understand
objectives
to understand how EPMs
how EPMs duereflect
reflecttothe challenges
the common
the challenges being faced by and
being faced bysocio- qualitative
and qualitative and mixed
and mixedto
essary methods.
methods.
provide They recommended
They recommended further
further
higher reliability o
decision-makers
bility ordecision-makers
conditions, in different
in different
and parts of the
the world.
geographical
parts of world. and climatic development and
development and integration
integration
In theof of innovative
innovative
following approaches
approaches into EPMs
into
sections, EPMs the i
dicators Previous
relevant
Previous work
work has toreviewed
has most
reviewed EPMs
EPMs of
of different
different types.
developing Suganthi to
Suganthi
types. economies to address
address the complex
complex interactions
thedeveloping interactions among
among disciplines
disciplines such
countries is as
such as social
social
analysed, f
egardinget al.
et al.18
18 categorized energy demand projection models based on their
resource
categorized energymanagement; science,
based on their science,
demand projection modelsassessment ecology,
of ecology, finance, and
finance,
difference and behavioural
behavioural psychology. Urban
psychology.
in socio-economic Urban et et al.
al.21
21
char
methods
methods but
s; the economic but misclassified
and
misclassified bottom-up
bottom-up and
technical and top-down
challenges
top-down approaches.
approaches. analysed
analysed twelve
associ- EPMs
and
twelve to
to investigate
investigate their
EPMspolitical suitability
suitability for
stability,
their developing
foras well as th
developing
Bhattacharyya
nsformation
Bhattacharyya et
of etthe al.19 analysed available EPMs for application in
19
energy
al. analysed infrastructure
available EPMs for application in fromcontexts and suggested
a and following
contexts that critical characteristics
section
suggested that critical explores
characteristics of
of developing
developingthe influ
Nature eNergy| ||172–184
VOL 3
3 || MARCH
MARCH| 2018
2018 43
Nature
3 | MARCH eNergy
2018 VOL || 172–184
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www.nature.com/natureenergy
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173
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Publishers part
part of
of Springer
Limited,Limited, Springer Nature. All
Nature.of
part rights
rights reserved.
All Springer
reserved. Nature. All rights reserved.
 Review
ReviewARticle
ARticle NaTurE ENErgy
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2
countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi-
overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures.
tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 34 models, quantitative and financial data
drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag-

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models

energy markets in developing contexts. gregated data as input variables. In the case of the output variables,
In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29
textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often normal-

in the developing-world context

economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit
that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models adopted
EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation and projection.
systems in developing countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimization methods are widely utilized (13 models), followed
Kumar Biswajit
affect the demand andDebnath 
supply of energy,  * and Monjur
as well as the rationalMourshed  devel- by   simulation (11 models) and economic (10 models) methods.
opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimization methods are mostly applied to energy demand and
Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments supply, andimpact
of the economic models. policies on the economy and envi-
of energy
typology
ronment. Most and structure
EPMs originated of energy in planning
developed models
countries and are primarily EPMs have aimed three common components
at reducing greenhouse and gas aemissions
basic workflow:while
We conducted
enhancing a systematic
energy security. survey of published
In contrast, most,literature
if noton EPMs.
all, developing variables →
inputcountries areunderlying
predominantly estimation or projection
concerned with methods
increasing →
Our study focuses on models predominantly used for the planning output variables.
energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find Key variations, however, lie in the type, resolution
of
an energy
absence systems and infrastructures
of consideration and that arechallenges,
of the objectives, more strategic, (temporal
and nuances of and
the spatial),
developing scopecontext.
and timeframe of the inputarise
Key deficiencies and output
from
as
theopposed
lack ofto operational.of
deliberation First,
thealowpreliminary
energy demand study wasresultingconducted fromvariables.
lack of access Model and objectives and the
availability of nature
supply.ofOther the data most often
inadequacies
to gatherthe
include an lackoverview of the topics of
of consideration related to EPMs that
socio-economic resultedsuch
nuances determine the choice of
as the prevalence ofestimation
corruptionorand projection
resulting methods.
cost inflation,
in
thethe identification
methods of two main
for adequately themes:the
addressing energy demand and
shortcomings Primaryavailability
in data quality, input variables in the studied
and adequacy, and EPMs
the effects are quantitative,
of climate
supply,
change.and Weenergyargue for information and emission
further research models. Electronic
on characterization financial of
and modelling andsuppressed
disaggregated. demand,EPMsclimate
are numerical
change impacts,models and and
databases
socio-political— namely feedback Google Scholar, ScienceDirect,
in developing countries, and JSTOR, IEEE utilize ofquantitative
the development contextual data EPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters
Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websites with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes.
energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to

H
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic
(IEA) uman activitiesInformation
and Energy have led to rapid changes in atmospheric
Administration (EIA) — werecon- are concerned
sectors requirewith increasingdata
disaggregated access
fortoa electricity, which is consid-
better interpretation of the
searched centrations
for relevant of greenhouse
publications gas using
(GHG)the emissions
keywords
1
, contribut-
listed in ered
existinga prerequisite
systems. for development and economic empowerment,
Table ing to and amplifying global climate change . Fossil fuels and as reflected byoftheunderlying
inclusion methods,
of energy optimization
as a goal in the wasSustainable
2
1. The keywords were categorized into five-word groups, In the case utilized in
land-use
which were change
combined(for example,
using thethrough
Booleandeforestation
operator ‘AND’ and , for exam- Development
farming) thirteen modelsGoals
10
because . Thetheycurrent CO2 emissions
would create an optimization per capita
loop as of
are
ple,two primary
‘Energy sources
planning of GHG
model’ AND emissions,
‘Forecasting’of whichAND the‘Input
emissions
vari- developing
a way of countries
testing whether are low,
the often much
selected below
output the global
satisfies the average
defined
from
ables’ land
ANDuse has been nearly
‘Organization’ ANDconstant
3
, whileon
‘Global’. Based thetheemissions
search and from (Fig. 1c). Hence,
the constraints. emission
In some models, reduction is not
especially always
energy on the and
demand agendasupplyfor
fossil-fuel based
available literature, energy systems
thirty-four increased
models by 50%bybetween
developed international2000 models,developing the countries,
primary even at a iscursory
objective to find level,
the except forsolution
least-cost a few large for
and 2013 (ref.or
organizations
4
). institutions
Current energy were and transportation
selected for analysis systems
(Table can 2). the countries
energysuch as China
market. and India11methods
Optimization . in such models would
result in substantial
In addition GHG discharges
to the published
5
, withand
journal articles a likely
books,global manuals mean of render Energy the planning
opportunity models
to test(EPMs) playpolicies
different an essentialagainstroletheinleast-
the
temperature
different models increasewere between 2.0–4.9
investigated to °C, with their
explore a median structureof 3.2and °C cost development
option. of the energy
However, sector methods
simulation at global,were nationalalso and regional
utilized in a
by
key2100 (ref. 6). Even
components. The ifreviewed
current models
GHG concentrations
were categorized remainbasedcon- levels by enabling
on significant numberinformed
of models.decision-making. EPMs are especially
stant,
modelthe world will
objectives experience a the
to contextualize few subsequent
centuries ofanalysis and dis- crucial as significant investments in innovative
rising tempera- energy research and
ture and Model
cussion. ocean level 7,8
structures. Therefore,
were then substantial
analysedreductions
to investigate in global planning are country
their Developing required characteristics
for decarbonization 12
. The development
not addressed in ePMsof
GHG emissions
relevance are essential
and deficits for mitigating
in developing contexts.climateFor change.
the categoriza- Almost EPMs startedall EPMs in the
were late 1950s andin
constructed early 1960s (ref.
developed
13
) but(Table
countries intensi- 3)
tionInbyaddition to the infrastructural
model objective, four categories elements
were used:of national
energyenergy infor- and fied considered
after the oiltheir crisis of thesystems,
energy 1970s in light of the
economic realizationand
assumptions, of the
the
systems
mation (thatsystems, is, generation, distribution, andenergy–economic
energy demand–supply, transmission), access and extenteffects to ofwhich
exogenous
GHG political
emissionsevents
need to onbeglobal
reduced. andWhilenationalCOenergy
2 emis-
to grid emissions
energy electricity models.and purchasing power of EPM
Table 2 illustrates the population
types, andinflu- their supplysions per. Itcapita
14
was necessary,
in high-income then, tocountries
criticallyareassess the interrelation-
decreasing (Fig. 1b),
ence
inputs,energy
outputs,end-useand and GHG emissions.
underlying methods.Figure 1a illustrates that
Five characteristics of ships
they are between the sources
increasing in theofdeveloping
energy supply and demand,
upper-middle andasmiddle-
well as
both access to electricity and per capita CO emissions
input variables were analysed: qualitative, quantitative, financial, income
2 are more to identify pathways for long-term development
countries, whose primary objective often is to improve of the energy sec-
significant
aggregated in and high-income
disaggregated. countries,
Although compared
financial todata
low-income
are typically and tor 15
access . The drive for global
to convenient forms sustainability in the 1990s
of energy. Despite the fact— spurred
that some in
middle-income
classed as ‘quantitative’ developing
, basedcountries.
on the extensiveMost use developed
of thesecountries
variables particular
EPMs havebybeen the Rio
widely Earth Summit
adopted forinenergy
1992 and systemthe planning
1995 report in
can ensure models
in different 100% access it wastodeemedelectricity, which only
worthwhile to includea fewthem develop-as a of the Intergovernmental
developing countries, they lack Panelconsideration
on Climate of Change (IPCC)num-
a substantial
16
—
ing countries can match. In 2010, annual
separate characteristic. The underlying methods were categorized per capita CO 2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG emissions
ber of issues affecting developing contexts; for example, the effects and their impact on
ranged from 0.02–15.14
into accounting framework, tCOregression,
2 in low and middle-income
optimization, coun- the
economic, of aenvironment.
lack of innovation, As a result,and thefurther
varyingmodelsnature were of developed
privatization, for
tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental
there is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of
emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans-
income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of
Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups
CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro-
all low and middle-income countries
Model Objectivein 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding a comprehensive Origin ofpicture of the interrelationships
development geographical applicabilitybetween
ofEnergy
Costa Rica’s energy was from
planning
renewable resources, of Input
Forecasting
which energy, environment,
variables
and climate change. Global
Organization
hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have
Energy information
As a result, future energy Projection planning objectives of developed Estimation methods
and been developed byCountry researchers and organizations Regional
in different coun-
Energy economic
developing countries are distinctly Demanddifferent.
and supply;Indemand;developedOutput coun-variables
tries, with various objectives and scopes.Country EPMs range from the
tries, the focus today is on supply reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun-
energy security,
Energy supply andprimarily
demand characterizedEconomic by a shift from fossil fuels try, region or the world — to the more sectoral — providing projec-
towards more renewable resources.
Energy supply Emission However,
control developing countries tions of the energy needs of, for example, transportation or industry.
Energy demand
Emission
BRE reduction
Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk

44 Nature eNergy
eNergy || VOL
VOL 3
3 || MARCH
MARCH 2018
2018 || 172–184
172–184 || www.nature.com/natureenergy
www.nature.com/natureenergy
172
174 Nature
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
Nature. All
All rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
 rgy NaTurE
NaTurE ENErgy
ENErgy Review
REPRINT GRAND ARticle
CHALLENGES Re
a 100
eristicsTable
of 2 | Characteristics
existing energy
of existing planning
energy planning models
models
Low and middle income High income Qatar
Input
Modelvariablesa Input variablesa MethodMethod
b b
KuwaitOutput variables
c
total ref. Outp
United States Luxembourg
Qul Qua Qul
Fin Qua agg
Fin agg Disaag
Disaag re OP
re eC Darussalam
Brunei OP SM eQeC aF enSM
em CoeQ aF en
Bahrain Australia
systemenergy information system Russian Federation Canada
Belgium 67
E3 10 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓
Finland ✓ 6Denmark ✓
Austria
CO2DB ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Palau ✓ Argentina ✓Slovenia
✓ ✓ 5 Malaysia 68
CO2emissions (metric tons per capita)

Hungary France
Mongolia
odel Energy economic model Guyana Latvia Lithuania
Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Algeria
Jamaica
MAM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓d the Grenadines
St. Vincent and ✓d ✓ 5Mauritius 69
Marshall Islands Peru Singapore
✓
MARKAL-MACRO ✓ Lesotho
✓ ✓
✓Angola ✓ ✓✓ Namibia ✓ ✓e ✓
Fiji
✓ ✓e ✓ ✓
Liechtenstein
✓✓ 10Brazil 70 ✓
India Honduras
1 ✓
MICRO-MELODIE ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓e ✓ ✓ ✓ 9 ✓
e 71

Senegal
TIMES- 0MACRO
✓ ✓ ✓ 25 ✓
✓ ✓ ✓✓
Zimbabwe
50 ✓ e
✓ ✓ 75
✓e ✓ ✓ ✓ 100 9 72
✓
Benin Bhutan
pply model
energy demand-supply model
Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka
Tajikistan
DECPAC ✓ Liberia ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ Haiti ✓ ✓✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 8 73
✓
Afghanistan
✓ IKARUS ✓ Tanzania ✓✓ ✓ ✓
Guinea✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 10 74
✓
Eritrea
0.1 ✓
ENPEP ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓✓ Comoros ✓e ✓f Nepal
✓e ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓f 9 71,75
✓
Somalia
LEAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓d ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 10 ✓
76–78
✓
Madagascar
POLES ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓d ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 79
✓
Chad
✓
MESSAGE-III Burundi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 80
✓
WASP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 81
✓
Access to electricity (% of population)
0.01 ✓
MARKAL ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 ✓
82

TIMES ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 83
✓
b
MEDEE ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ c ✓✓ ✓ ✓ d✓ ✓ 6 ✓
84
✓
16 100 40
MAED ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 4 85
✓
CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2 per capita)

NEMS ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ 35 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 86
✓
CO2 emissions (tCO2 per capita)

12 ✓
ENERPLAN ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓✓ 5 ✓
71,75
10 30
MESAP ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓ ✓d ✓ CO2 emissions (Gt) ✓ ✓✓ 10 ✓ ✓
71
25
model energy emissions model
8 ✓
✓ UK 2050 ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓1 ✓ 20 ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 8 87
✓
1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
✓ BD 2050 ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 15 ✓ ✓✓ 7 51
✓
✓
MESAP PlaNet ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 8 88,89
✓
4 0.1 10
✓
EFOM-ENV ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 8 90
✓
5
IMAGE ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 6 91

AIM 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓
0.01 ✓ ✓ 0 ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 92
✓
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ASF ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ 5 93
Year Year Year
GREEN ✓World ✓ ✓ Middle✓income ✓✓ Bangladesh Afghanistan ✓ Rica
Costa ✓World✓ ✓ ✓ 7Lower middle
94,95
income ✓
ERM ✓Upper middle income
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ Nigeria Maldives Philippines
✓ ✓High ✓
income ✓ ✓ 7Low income
96
✓
Low and middle income Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income
IEA ✓High income ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ Belgium World ✓d ✓d ✓Middle
✓income✓ 7 96
✓
CRTM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ 7 95,96
✓
Fig. 1 | CO2 emissions characteristics. a, CO2 emissions versus access to electricity in high-income and low-income countries in 2010. Access to electricity
MR ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 7 96
✓
in low-income and middle-income countries ranges from 3.5–100% of the population. In contrast, the figure is 72.6–100% in high-income countries. b, CO2
WW
emissions ✓
per capita for the✓ ✓1992–2011.
period ✓ c, CO2 emissions
✓✓ per capita in selected developed and✓ developing countries
✓ ✓ for the
✓period
✓ 71972–2011. 96
d, CO2 ✓
emissions
SGM in countries by income
✓ ✓ ✓ group in✓the
✓ period
✓ 1960–2011. The income
✓ group classification used here is that ✓
✓ from the
✓ World ✓ Bank7list of economies
97
✓
3 (July
Total2015):
34 low income, US$1,045
3 32 34or less;10lower middle
32 10 27 income,
27 US$1,046–4,125;
8 138 upper
10 13 middle
11 income,
7 10 US$4,126–12,735;
3 3011 29and high
287income, US$12,736
3 or 30
more. Data is taken from ref. 9.
ve); Qua (quantitative);
a
Input types: Qul (qualitative);
FinQua(financial);
(quantitative); FinAgg
(financial);
(aggregated);
Agg (aggregated); andand
Disag (disaggregated).
Disag (disaggregated).
b
Methods: RE (regression); bOP
Methods:
(optimization); EC
RE (economic–econometric,
(regression); OP (optimization)
ulation); EQ
macroeconomic);
(equilibrium);SM (simulation);
andEQ AF
(equilibrium);
(accounting
and AF (accounting
framework).
framework). cOutput
c
Output
types: En (energy
types:— demand/supply);
En (energy Em (emissions);
— demand/
and Co (cost).supply);
d
Econometric.Em
e
Macroeconomic.
(emissions); and Co
f
Economic equilibrium.

Given that the IEA estimates the growth in energy demand over the developing countries but did not present details on relevant socio-
next 23 years will be higher in developing Asian countries than the economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger et al.20
rest of the worldand
decentralization
nd competition
17
inand future emissions
competition
the in the from
energy energygrowth regions
industry
industry 22 22will
. Policy categorized one
. Policy
centralized EPMs into
to an
centralized four types:
intelligent and energyto system
decentralized
one an optimization;
one; and finan-
intelligent an
be critical
s need priorities
to bein more in the
EPMs current 1.5 °C more
temperature
needcountry-specific
to be discourse1,or
country-specific it regional,
or is essen- energy
regional,
cial systemcialsimulation;
vulnerabilities powerAddressing
in vulnerabilities
households. system and electricity
these
in EPMsmarket
inhouseholds.
is nec- A
ferences tial in
to understand
because of the differences
objectives how EPMs induereflectto
objectivesthedue
challenges
the to the being faced
common
common socio- and qualitative
bysocio-
essary to provide and mixed
higher
essary methods.
reliability
to They recommended
of estimates.
provide further
higher reliability o
decision-makers
bility oreconomic
conditions, in different
vulnerability or parts
conditions,
and of the
andworld.
geographicalgeographical andand climatic development
climatic and integration
In the following In theof
sections, theinnovative approaches
issue of suppressed
following into EPMs
demand
sections, in the i
dicators Previous
characteristics.
relevant work has
toreviewed
Indicators EPMs
relevant
most to of different
most types.economies
developing
developing economies to address the
Suganthi developing complexisinteractions
countries
developing among
analysed, followed
countriesdisciplines such
is as
by a discussion social
of the
analysed, f
egardinget al.18 categorized
include 22 energymanagement;
: issues regarding
resource demand
resourceprojection modelsassessment
management; based on their
assessment science,
of ecology,
of difference finance, and behavioural
in difference
socio-economic psychology.
characteristics such asUrban
in socio-economic et al.21
corruption char
methodsalternatives;
energy
s; the economic but misclassified
andthe bottom-up
economic
technical and top-down
and technical approaches.
challenges
challenges associ- analysed
and
associ- twelve
political EPMspolitical
stability,
and to investigate
as their
well as their suitability
effect on the for
stability, developing
economy.
as wellThe as th
Bhattacharyya
ated with the
nsformation et al.19
analysed
of transformation
the energy available
of the energy EPMs for application
infrastructure fromfrom
infrastructure in contexts
a following and
a section suggested that critical
explores the influence
following sectioncharacteristics
of dataexploresof developing
inadequacy on the
the influ
Nature eNergy| ||172–184
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3 || MARCH
MARCH| 2018
2018 45
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3 | MARCH eNergy
2018 VOL || 172–184
172–184 || www.nature.com/natureenergy
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175
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Publishers part
part of
of Springer
Limited,Limited, Springer Nature. All
Nature.of
part rights
rights reserved.
All Springer
reserved. Nature. All rights reserved.
 Review
ReviewARticle
ARticle NaTurE ENErgy
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2
countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi-
Table 3 | Origin and use of ePMs
overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures.
tries
Model in the EPMs, yet specifics Developerwere not offered on socio-economic Country Amongof origin the analysed
applied to34 or models,
adopted quantitative
No. of countries and financialref. data
drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34inand 32 models respectively.
developing applied to 27ormodels used disag-

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models

energy markets in developing contexts. gregated data ascountries input variables. In the case ofinthe output variables,
adopted
In light
E3 Database of this, there is a lack of evidence-based
Ludwig–Bolkow–Systemtechnik GmbH analysis of con- most
Germany of the model’s
– outputs are energy (30 models), emission 67 (29
textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often68 normal-

in the developing-world context

CO2DB International Institute for Applied Systems Austria –
economic variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit
Analysis (IIASA)
that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models adopted
DECPAC
EPMs to investigate their International
applicability Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA)
deficiencies for energy Austria different underlying – methods for estimation and projection.
73

systems
IKARUS in developing Former countries. German OurFederalfocusMinistry
is on the factors that Germany
of Education, Optimization methods – are widely utilized (13 models),74 followed
Kumar Biswajit
affect the demand andDebnath 
Science,ofResearch,
supply energy, * and and
as well Monjur
Technology
as the rational Mourshed 
(BMFT) devel- by   simulation (11 models) and economic (10 models) methods.
opment
MAM of the energy sector in a developing
US Department of Energy country. USAOptimization methods – are mostly applied to energy demand 69 and
Energy
MARKAL-MACROplanning models (EPMs)Energy
International support Agency multi-criteria
(IEA) and ETSAP assessments supply, and
France of the impact economic models.
Yes of energy policies on the economy and 70 envi-
typology
ronment. and structure
Most EPMsUSoriginated of energy planning models EPMs have three common components greenhouse and gas aemissions
basic workflow:
MICRO-MELODIE Departmentinofdeveloped Energy countries and are USAprimarily aimed at reducing while
variables –→
71
We conducted
enhancing a systematic
energy security. survey of published
In contrast, most, literature
if noton EPMs.
all, developing inputcountries areunderlying
predominantly estimation or projection
concerned with methods
increasing →
TIMES-
Our studyMACRO focuses on Brookhaven
models National Laboratory
predominantly used for the planning USAoutput variables. – Key variations, however, lie in the type, resolution 72
energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find
of energy
ENPEP
an absence systems andCommissariat
of consideration infrastructures
of the and that
à l’énergie
objectives, arechallenges,
atomique moreet aux strategic, (temporal
and France
nuances of and
the spatial),
Yes
developing scopecontext.
and timeframe of the inputarise
60 deficiencies
Key and
98
output
from
as opposed to operational. First,
énergies a preliminary
alternatives (CEA) study was conducted
the lack of deliberation of the low energy demand resulting from lack of access and availability of supply. Other inadequacies variables. Model objectives and the nature of the data most often
to gather an overview of the topics related
Systems to EPMs
Analysis that resulted
include the lack of consideration of socio-economic nuances such as the prevalence of corruption and resulting cost inflation,
LEAP Energy Technology Program determine
France the choice
Yes of estimation or projection
190 a methods. 99

in
thethe identification
methods for adequatelyof two main
(ETSAP) addressing
and themes:the
International energy
shortcomings
Energy demand
Agency (IEA) and Primaryavailability
in data quality, input variables in the studied
and adequacy, and EPMs the effects are quantitative,
of climate
supply,
change.
Mesap PlaNetand
Weenergy argue for information
further research
International and
Atomic emission models.
on characterization
Energy Agency (IAEA) Electronic financial of
andAustria
modelling andsuppressed
disaggregated.
– demand, EPMsclimate are numerical
change impacts, models
88 and
and
databases
socio-political — namely feedback Google in Scholar, ScienceDirect,
developing countries, JSTOR,
and the IEEE utilize ofquantitative
development contextual data
EPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters
EFOM-ENV Stockholm Environmental Institute, Boston
Science, and other official websites with USA Yes 20 100
Xplore, Scopus, Web of are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes.
POLES databanks, specifically
energy First developed UnitedbyNationsCNRS (France), (UN), and World now Bank,
by France
While modelling Yesenergy infrastructure 57 in a holistic approach to
a 101

H
International MonetaryCNRS, FundUPMF (IMF), University,
International Enerdata, and IPTS
Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic
(IEA) uman and EnergyactivitiesInformation
have
(Spain, ledEuropean
to rapid changes in atmospheric
Commission
Administration Research
(EIA) Center)
— werecon- are concerned
sectors requirewith increasingdata
disaggregated access fortoa electricity, which is consid-
better interpretation of the
searched centrations
MESSAGE-III for relevant of greenhouse
publications
International gas (GHG)
using
Institute the
for emissions
keywords
Applied
1
, contribut-
System listed in ered
existing
Austria a prerequisite
systems. Yes for development and economic empowerment, 102

Table ing to and amplifying global climate change . Fossil fuels and as reflected byof theunderlying
inclusion methods,of energy optimization
as a goal in the wasSustainable
2
1. The keywords were
Analysis categorized
(IIASA) into five-word groups, In the case utilized in
land-use
which
WASP were changecombined (for example,
using the through
Boolean deforestation
operator
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ‘
A ND’and , farming)
for exam- Development
thirteen
Austria models Goals 10
because
Yes
. Thethey current
would CO
create
100 2 emissions
an per 98capita
optimization loop as of
are
ple, two primary
‘Energy sources
planning of GHG
model’ AND emissions,
‘Forecasting’ of which AND the‘Input
emissionsvari- developing
a way of countries
testing whether are low,the often
selected much outputbelow the global
satisfies the average
defined
MARKAL use has beenInternational
from Energy3, Agency (IEA) and ETSAP France Yes is70not
a 102,103
ables’ land
AND ‘Organization’ nearly
ANDconstant‘Global’. Based whileon thetheemissions
search and from (Fig. 1c). Hence,
the constraints. In someemission
models, reduction
especially energyalways on the and
demand agenda supplyfor
MEDEE
fossil-fuel based energy Institut
systems Economics
increased et Juridigue
by 50% de between
l’Energie 2000 France developing Yes
countries, even at a cursory level, except forsolution
a100few large
available literature, thirty-four models developed by international models, the primary objective is to find the least-cost for
and 2013 (ref.or (IEJE),
). institutions
Current Grenoble
energy
were and transportation systems
(Table can countries
energysuch as China and India11methods.
4
organizations selected for analysis 2). the market. Optimization in such models would
result
MAED
In in substantial
addition to the published GHG discharges
International
journal Atomic 5
, with
articles Energy
anda likely
books,global
Agency (IAEA)
manuals mean of Austria Energy
render the planning Yes models
opportunity to test (EPMs)
different playpolicies
40 an essential
againstrole theinleast-
85 the
temperature
different
NEMS models were US increase between
investigated 2.0–4.9
Departmentto °C,
of explore with a median
Energy their structure and USA of 3.2 °C development
cost option. of the
However,
– energy sector
simulation at
methodsglobal, national
were also and 86 regional
utilized in a
by
key 2100 (ref. 6). Even
components. The ifreviewed
current modelsGHG concentrations
were categorized remainbasedcon- on Japanlevels by enabling
significant number informed decision-making. EPMs are 102 especially
ENERPLAN Tokyo Energy Analysis Group Yes of models.
stant,
modelthe world will
objectives experience a the
to contextualize few subsequent
centuries ofanalysis rising tempera-and dis- crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and
MESAP
ture and Model
ocean level 7,8 Institutes für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle
. Therefore, substantial reductions in global Germany
planning are country Yes
required for decarbonization . The development
104
in ePMsof
12
cussion. structures were
Energieanwendung
then analysed
(IER),
to
University
investigate
of Stuttgart
their Developing characteristics not addressed
GHG
relevanceemissions
and deficitsare essential for mitigating
in developing contexts. climateFor change.
the categoriza- Almost EPMs startedall EPMs in the
were late 1950s andin
constructed early 1960s (ref.
developed
13
countries) but(Table
intensi- 3)
UKIn
tion byaddition
2050 to the Department
model objective, infrastructural
four categories elements
of Energy of national
and Climate
were used: Changeenergy
energy infor- UKand fied considered
after the oiltheir crisis
Yes of thesystems,
energy 1970s in 24light
a,b
economic of the realization
assumptions,
105
of the
and the
systems (DECC)
mation (that systems, is, generation,
energy distribution, andenergy–economic
demand–supply, transmission), access and extenteffects to ofwhich
exogenousGHG political
emissionsevents need to onbeglobal
reduced. andWhilenational COenergy
2 emis-
to grid emissions
IMAGE
energy electricity models. and PBL purchasing
Netherlands power
Table 2 illustrates of EPM
Environmental the population
Assessment
types, andinflu- supply
sions per. Itcapita
their Netherlands
14
was necessary,
–in high-income then, tocountries
criticallyare assess the interrelation-
decreasing 91
(Fig. 1b),
ence
inputs, energy
outputs, end-use and and GHGand
Agency
underlying emissions.
Utrecht
methods. Figure
University 1a illustrates that
Five characteristics of ships
they are between the sources
increasing in theofdeveloping
energy supply and demand,
upper-middle andasmiddle-
well as
both
input access to electricity
AIM variables were analysed: and per
National Institute capita
qualitative, CO emissions
quantitative,
of Environmental
2 Studiesare more
financial, Japan to identify
income pathways
countries, for long-term development
– whose primary objective often is to improve of the energy
92 sec-
significant
aggregated in and high-income
disaggregated.
(NIES) countries,
Although compared
financial todata
low-income
are typically and tor 15
access. The drive for global
to convenient forms sustainability
of energy. Despite in the 1990s the fact— spurred
that some in
middle-income
classed developing countries. Most use developed
of thesecountries particular
EPMs havebybeen the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and the 1995 report
CRTM as ‘quantitative’,Joint based on the
Center for extensive
Satellite Data Assimilation variables USA – widely adopted for energy system planning 96 in
can ensure models
in different 100% access it was todeemed
(JCSDA)
electricity,worthwhilewhich only to includea fewthem develop- as a of the Intergovernmental
developing countries, they lack Panelconsideration
on Climate of Change (IPCC)num-
a substantial
16
—
ing countries can match. In 2010, annual
separate characteristic. The underlying methods were categorized per capita CO 2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG
ber of issues affecting developing contexts; for example, theemissions and their impact effectson
SGM from 0.02–15.14
ranged Pacific
tCO Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), coun- USA – As a result, further models were developed 97
into accounting framework, 2 in low and
regression, middle-income
optimization, economic, the
of aenvironment.
lack of innovation, and the varying nature of privatization, for
and maintained by the PNNL Joint Global Change
tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental
there is a positive association Researchbetween Institute (JGCRI)
electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of
emissions.
Including all theOne
a
notable
countries exception
that utilized the specificis Costa
model. b
Rica,
Several 2050an upper
pathways middle-
models global GHG
have been constructed emissions
for the following developing come from
countries: the Bangladesh,
Vietnam, electricity, heat,
Thailand, andMexico,
Nigeria, trans-
Mauritius, Indonesia, India, Colombia, China and Brazil. These models are roughly based on the principles of UK2050 Pathways , 4albeit with some minor country-specific additions. Most models lack the
income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors , the integration of the environmental aspects of
106

Table 1 | Searched
consideration of socio-economickeywords
parametersand except associated
BD2050 wheregroups electricity consumption is modeled against various scenarios of GDP and population growth. Political instability, corruption, suppressed
CO 2 emissions
demand of 1.7effects
and climate change tCOare2, not
well below
modeled in anythe average
of these developing of 2.09
countrytCO 2 for
pathways. energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro-
all low and middle-income countries
Model Objectivein 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding a comprehensive Origin ofpicturedevelopmentof the interrelationships
geographical applicability between
ofEnergy
Costa Rica’s energy was from
planning Forecasting
renewable resources, of Input which energy, environment,
variables
and climate change. Global
Organization
hydroelectric
development sources
of EPMs.accountedAfterwards, for the75.8% impact(ref. of 9
). climate change is such Over the past
as clean and four
safe decades, water
drinking a substantial
and adequate number of EPMs have
Energy information Projection Estimation methods Country Regional energy for cook-
As a result,
discussed focusing future onenergy
the effect planning
of energy objectives
planning of developed
on land devel- and ing beenand developed
lightingby researchers
because of some andhost organizations
barriers24. in different
Barriers cancoun-
be a
Energy economic
developing Demanddifferent.and supply;Indemand; Output
coun-variables Country
opment andcountries
food production, are distinctly as well as the role ofdeveloped extreme weather tries,
lack ofwith various objectives
infrastructure, low technology and scopes. penetration,EPMs and range from par-
poverty, the
tries, the focus today is on supply
reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun-
events on EPMs. Finally, the impact of poor characterization of vari- ticularly the high costs of energy services compared to household
energy
Energy
ables security,
onsupply
EPMsand isprimarily
demand characterized
discussed. Economic by a shift from fossil fuels try, region
incomes 25 or the world — to the more sectoral — providing projec-
. Energy infrastructure barriers such as the lack of access
towards
Energy supplymore renewable resources. However,
Emission control developing countries tions of the
to grid electricityenergycan needs lead of,tofor example,
minimal ortransportation
no use of electrical or industry.
appli-
Suppressed
Energy demand demand in developing countries. Suppressed demand ances. The barriers can also interact to produce a situation where
refers to the incapability of the people, community or nation to meet the population cannot afford energy for basic needs because of low
Emission
BRE reduction
Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering,
minimum services levels (MSL) necessarySchool for human of Engineering,
development Cardiff 23 University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk
, income and high unit cost. On the other hand, studies show that
46 Nature eNergy
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3 || MARCH
MARCH 2018
2018 || 172–184
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www.nature.com/natureenergy
172
174
176 Nature
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
Nature. All
All rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
 rgy NaTurE
NaTurE ENErgy
ENErgy Review
REPRINT GRAND ARticle
CHALLENGES Re
a reduced
the 100 unit cost often results in higher demand for energy. For as previously reported33. This amplification in energy consumption
eristics of existing energy planning models
example, the transition Low and from kerosene
middle income to electric lighting in devel- may have resulted from the presence of suppressed
High income Qatar
demand.
oping variables
Input countries reduced a the unit cost of light by more than 90% Method The trends b in per capita gross national income (GNI) and energy
Kuwait Outp
Qul
but augmented
Qua
the consumption
Fin
of lighting
agg
services
Disaag
(lumens) by re
consumption OP
Brunei Darussalam for the
eC
period
United States1960–2013
SM
ofeQ
eighteen
Luxembourg randomly
aF en
a factor of 40 (refs 25–27). In the case of the technology barrier, the selected countries from fourBahrain World Bank economic classifications
Australia
systempenetration of specific technology among the population can be are illustrated in Fig. 4. In
Russian the high-income andCanada
Federation upper-middle-
Belgium
hindered10 ✓ by the higher ✓ initial cost. This cost can be compensated income countries, the relationship Finland✓ between GNIDenmark
Austria
per capita and ✓
by high income,
✓ and policy ✓ incentives by governments (such as tax Palau electricity consumption per capita
Argentina has a logarithmic
✓Slovenia progression,
Malaysia
CO2emissions (metric tons per capita)

Hungary
odel
reduction on the technology or subsidies). which denotes that when a country reaches
Mongolia a stable income level,
France
Lithuania
Guyana Latvia
Emissions from developing countries are much lower than the the energy consumptiond becomes
Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. linear in characteristic
Jamaica Algeria (Fig. 4). In
✓ because of
global average ✓suppressed✓ energy demand. Energy con- St. Vincent and the Grenadines ✓
the case Islands
of developing contexts Mauritius
Marshall Peru with lower middle and low income,
Singapore
sumption✓ of many household ✓ Lesotho needs,✓ such as heating
Angola ✓ and cooking, Namibia ✓ in GNI✓
theFijiincrease boosts the electricity
e
✓ Brazil exponen-
Liechtenstein consumption
✓
India
and lighting,
1 ✓ may not reflect ✓ the real demand. ✓ The✓ lack of consider- tially (Fig. ✓ 4), because ✓GNI e per capita augmentation influences the
Honduras ✓
ation of0suppressed
✓ demand ✓ can result 25 ✓in an inaccurate ✓ estimation
50 ‘suppressed’
Senegal
✓ demand 75
✓ bye allowing more people100 to access electricity. ✓
Zimbabwe
of baselines for Clean Development Mechanism Benin (CDM) projects28. Moreover, improved buying capacity enables consumers to buy and
Bhutan
pply model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka
More specifically, CDM rules state that “the baseline may include utilize more electronic products, resulting in exponential Tajikistanelectricity
a scenario ✓where future✓
Liberia anthropogenic ✓ emissions Haiti by sources are consumption ✓ Lao growth.
PDR After ✓ a stable economic stage, the
reaching ✓
Afghanistan
✓ projected✓ to riseTanzania
above ✓ current levels,
Guinea ✓due to the✓ specific circum- energy consumption ✓ growth slows ✓steadily34, despite the fact that ✓
stances of✓ the host party” ✓
29
. However,✓ a UNFCCC Eritreareport
✓
30
Comoros encour- the GDP can keep rising. ✓ e
✓ f
✓
0.1 Nepal
aged the CDM Executive Board “to further explore the possibility In developing economies, corruption influences policy deci-
✓ ✓ ✓ Somalia ✓ ✓d ✓ ✓ ✓
of including in baseline andMadagascar monitoring methodologies, as appro- sions, including the procurement of megaprojects — often resulting
✓
priate, a scenario where ✓ future anthropogenic emissions ✓ by sources in the selection of higher-cost ✓d options35,36 that ✓ may benefit the deci- ✓
Chad
are projected✓ to Burundirise above ✓ current levels due to✓ specific circum- sion-maker(s) ✓ to the detriment of the environment and economy. ✓
stances of✓the host party”. ✓ These guidelines explicitly ✓ differentiate ✓For example, ✓ after 2009, Bangladesh’s increased dependence on ✓
energy contexts between ✓ developed and developing countries.
Access to electricity volatile ✓
(% of population) international energy markets for oil imports was due to the
0.01 ✓ ✓ ✓
None of the reviewed EPMs considered the CDM guidelines, which growth in for-profit, private sector oil-based generation plants oper-
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
may increase error in future energy planning strategies for develop- ating during off-peak hours that resulted in greater macroeconomic
b
ing contexts.✓ ✓ c ✓ d
✓risks . The sub-optimal decision to increase oil-based electricity
37 ✓ ✓
16 100 40
✓ ✓ ✓generation beyond peak generation capacity requirements has been ✓
CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2 per capita)

Difference ✓in socio-economic ✓ characteristics. Developed

✓ coun- reported✓ as ad-hoc and short-sighted35
37
. ✓
tries have different socioeconomic attributes than those of develop-
CO2 emissions (tCO2 per capita)

Evidence suggests that reduced corruption can result in a sig-

✓ ✓ d
✓ ✓
ing countries.
12 The literature suggests that political instability 10 affects nificant increase in GDP; for 30 example, if Bangladesh can enhance

the economic ✓ growth of✓ a country31, ✓ especially GDP ✓ growth32. The ✓

its bureaucratic ✓d and efficiency
integrity CO2 emissions (Gt)
✓ to the level of Uruguay ✓ ✓
25
model rate of change of stability is lower in developed countries that are its annual GDP growth would elevate by over half a percentage . 35

✓ often characterized
8 ✓ by steady
✓ GDP growth (Fig.✓ 2a–e).
1 However, Figure 5 compares inflation20with the ✓ Corruption Perceptions Index ✓
1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
✓
all developing
✓
countries ✓
do not necessarily demonstrate
✓
a similar (CPI) of different nations. Countries ✓
with higher CPI scores are less ✓
15
association between GDP growth and political stability, which var- corrupt and more developed and in most cases, have less inflation.
✓
ies substantially ✓
(Fig. 2f–j). There are also exceptions. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
4 0.1 Despite the In contrast, countries with 10 higher levels of corruption tend to have
✓
negative progression ✓
of political stability, some countries ✓ have posi- ✓higher inflation. ✓ The economic inflation rate is associated with the ✓
tive GDP✓ growth (for example, ✓ Japan, Germany, ✓ and Bangladesh). ✓size of the national debt of a5 country. Energy projects are typically
Developed 0 ✓
economies mostly ✓ maintain steady progress ✓ 0.01
on the posi- ✓big and require significant 0investments. Loans from international ✓
tive side of the
1992 1995political
1998 stability
2001 2004 scale2007(that2010
is, they have a political financial organizations such1960 as the World
1970 Bank, 1980 Asian1990 Development
2000 2010
✓ ✓ ✓
stability score of 0 to 2.5),Year while the same parameter is on the nega- Bank Year (ADB) and International Monetary FundYear (IMF), and local and
tive side ✓ the scale in ✓
ofWorld most of Middle
the developing
income ✓ Bangladesh
countries (that is, Afghanistan
international banks, constitute a World
Costa Rica large proportion ✓ of energy
Lower invest-
middle income ✓
the score✓ ranges from 0 to
Upper middle ✓–2.5). In most developed
income ✓country EPMs,
Nigeria ments in developing countries. Corruption has✓
Maldives Philippines High income been reported in all
Low income ✓
Low and middle income Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income
GDP is the onlyincome
✓High socio-economic✓ parameter for demand ✓ Belgium projection. World life-cycle stages of energy ✓d projects, but
Middle most evidence on its exis-
income ✓
Considering GDP growth or GDP volume alone is unlikely to rep- tence and extent are reported for the tendering process38, which
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
resent the2 emissions
Fig. 1 | CO nuances of the economica,structure
characteristics. CO2 emissions of a developing
versus accesscoun- directly
to electricity increases and
in high-income the low-income
project costcountries
and corresponding
in 2010. Access loan amount.
to electricity
try. More✓
in low-income integrative
and middle-income
✓
modelling is, therefore,
countries ranges
✓ for predicting
required
from 3.5–100% The terms
of the population.
✓ of these loans are typically longer (for example, decades)
In contrast, the figure is 72.6–100% in high-income countries. b, CO2
✓
future
emissions energy
✓ demand
per capita for the while
✓period accounting
1992–2011. for the
c, CO structural
✓ changes and interest rates are higher, due to the perceived
2 emissions per capita in selected developed and developing countries for the period 1972–2011. d, CO2
✓ risks of political ✓
in the economy.
emissions The by
in countries
✓ increasing
income
✓ group sharein✓ of
theindustry and services
period 1960–2011. The in the ✓
income instability
group and inflation
classification used here— resulting
is that from thein World
higherBank
repayment cost and
list of economies ✓
economic output with US$1,045
a corresponding rise in energy use and emis- increased national debt. The consequences of increased pressures
3 (July 2015): 34 low income, 32 or less;10 lower middle 27income, US$1,046–4,125;8 upper13 middle income,10 US$4,126–12,735; 11 and high7income, US$12,736 3 or 30
sions in developing
more. Data is taken from countries
ref. 9. has the potential to further augment on public finance are the inevitable rise in personal and sometimes
world GHG emissions,
ve); Qua (quantitative); despite the decreasing
Fin (financial); trend for emissions
Agg (aggregated); in business
and Disag tax rates, further
(disaggregated). increasingRE
Methods: b
inflation. Another OP
(regression); impact of
(optimization)
ulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). Output types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co c
high-income countries. a corruption-related increase in macroeconomic stress is the det-
Along with the stage of economic development, the intensity rimental effect on social and economic development, as money
Given
and that the IEA
distribution of estimates
economicthe growthinfluence
activities in energya demand
country’sover the intended
energy developing forcountries
these sectors but did not present
is often reallocated details
for ondebtrelevant
repayment socio-37
.
next 23 years will be higher in developing Asian
consumption. The17analysis of GDP per capita against electricity con- countries than the economic parameters and their effect on
Comparatively low levels of corruption in developed coun- policies. Pfenninger et al. 20

rest of theinworld
sumption
nd competition Fig. 3in and
shows future
the emissions
a positive
energy fromindustry
relationship; growth
that is, regions 22will
electricity
. Policy categorized
tries have limited EPMs into four
effects
centralized on types:
energy
one energy
projects
tosystem
and
an the optimization;
economy.
intelligent an
beto critical
s need consumption bein more
the currentwith
increases 1.5 the°C temperature
growth in GDP.
country-specific discourse 1
, or
it is essen-
The coefficients of energy
regional, Modelling system simulation;
corruption
cial power system
is, therefore,
vulnerabilities a lowand electricity
priority.
in market
In contrast,
households. A
ferences tial in
to understand
determination (R2)how
objectives in the EPMs due
plots reflect
are to the challenges
very the
high forcommon being facedand
low-income bysocio-and
energy qualitative
projectessaryand mixedto
procurement, methods.
management
provide Theyand recommended
operation in
higher further
devel-
reliability o
decision-makers
bility orlower-middle-income
conditions, in differentand
countries partsasofcompared
the world.to the upper-middle
geographical and climatic development
oping countries andare integration
In theofcorrupted
evidently innovative
following approaches
with severe into EPMs
impacts
sections, on the i
dicators andPrevious
relevant
high-income workcountries.
hastoreviewed
most EPMs of different
developing
In high-income countries, types. Suganthi
economies
the change in to theaddress
economy the39developing
complex
. Corruption interactions
and itsamongeffectsdisciplines
countries on micro-such andas
is social
macro-
analysed, f
egarding et al.18per
GDP categorized
capita hasenergy
resource demandon
little influence
management; projection
electricitymodels
consumption.based on
assessment con- science,
In their of ecology,
economic finance,inand
performance
difference allbehavioural
life in psychology.
cycle socio-economic
stages of energy Urban et al.21
planning char
methods
trast,
s; the economic but misclassified
an increase inand
GDP per bottom-up and top-down
capita significantly
technical amplifies
challenges approaches.
electricity associ-analysed twelve
should, therefore, and EPMs to investigate
be political
an integral part theirof suitability
any modelling
stability, foras developing
effort
well in as th
nsformation Bhattacharyya
consumption et
ofinthe al. 19
low-income analysed
energy available EPMs
and lower-middle-income
infrastructure for application
countries, in
from contexts
developing
a and suggested
countries. that
following section explorescritical characteristics of developingthe influ
Nature eNergy| ||172–184
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3 || MARCH
MARCH| 2018
2018 47
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3 | MARCH eNergy
2018 VOL || 172–184
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©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Publishers part
part of
of Springer
Limited,Limited, Springer Nature. All
Nature.of
part rights
rights reserved.
All Springer
reserved. Nature. All rights reserved.
 Review
ReviewARticle
ARticle NaTurE ENErgy
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2
countries
a such as the Austria informal economy and supply b shortages were USA simulation, and equilibrium c methods. Output UK variables were classi-
overlooked.
8 The study identified a bias towards 2.0
industrialized
8 coun- fied into energy, emissions,
2.0
8 and cost measures.
2.0
GDP growth rate (%)

tries in6the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 346 models, quantitative and financial data

Political stability
1.0 6 1.0 1.0
drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models used disag-
0.0 0.0 0.0

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models

energy 4markets in developing contexts. 4 gregated data as input variables. 4 In the case of the output variables,
−1.0 −1.0 −1.0
In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission (29
2 −2.0 2 −2.0 2 −2.0
textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often normal-

in the developing-world context

−3.0 −3.0 −3.0
economic 0 variables for EPMs in the developing world 0 context. To ized; for example, cost per 0 unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit
that end, 1995we reviewed
2000 thirty-four
2005 2010 current, 2015 highly used, 1995macro-level
2000 generated,
2005 2010 and 2015emissions per 1995unit2000GDP. Reviewed
2005 2010 models 2015adopted
EPMs d
to investigate their Year
applicability and deficiencies e
for energy Year different underlying fmethods for estimation Year
and projection.
systems8 in developingFrance countries. Our focus is on the factors that Optimization
Germany methods are widely utilized
Malaysia (13 models), followed
Kumar Biswajit andDebnath   * and Monjur Mourshed    simulation (11
8 8
affect the demand supply of energy, as2.0well as the rational devel- by 2.0 models) and economic (10 models) methods. 2.0
GDP growth rate (%)

Political stability
opment of the energy sector in a developing country.
6 1.0 6 Optimization methods are mostly applied to energy demand
1.0 6 1.0 and

Energy4 planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria 0.0 supply, and

assessments of the impact of energy economic0.0 models. policies on the economy and0.0envi-
4 4
typology
ronment. Most and structureEPMs originated of energy in planning
developed
−1.0 models
countries and are primarily EPMs have aimed three
−1.0 common components
at reducing greenhouse and gas aemissions
basic workflow: while
−1.0
We conducted
enhancing 2 a systematic
energy security. survey of published
In contrast, −2.0 most, literature
if2noton EPMs.
all, developing variables →
inputcountries are
−2.0underlying
predominantly
2 estimation or projection
concerned with methods −2.0 →
increasing
Our
energy study focuses
access. on models
Here, we review predominantly
thirty-four −3.0 usedwidely for theused planning output variables.
EPMs to investigate Key
their−3.0 variations,to
applicability however,
developing lie in countries
the type, resolution
and−3.0find
0 0 0
of
an energy
absence
1995 systems
of 2000 and
consideration infrastructures
2005 2010of the and that
objectives,
2015 are more
challenges,
1995 strategic,
2000 and (temporal
nuances
2005 2010of and
the spatial),
2015developing scope and
context.
1995 timeframe
2000 Key of the
deficiencies
2005 2010input and
2015 output
arise from
as
theopposed
lack ofto operational.
deliberation Yearof First,
thealow preliminary
energy demand study wasresulting conducted from variables.
Yearlack of access Model and objectives and the
availability of nature
supply. Year ofOther
the data most often
inadequacies
to g
gather
include an lack
the overview of the topics of
of consideration
Vietnam related to EPMs
socio-economic h that resultedsuch
nuances determine the choice of
as the prevalence
Sri Lanka ofi estimation
corruptionorand projection
resulting
Bangladesh methods.
cost inflation,
in
thethe
8identification of two main themes: energy 8demand and
methods for adequately addressing 2.0 the shortcomings in data quality, Primaryavailability
input2.0variables 8 in the studied EPMs are quantitative,
and adequacy, and the effects of climate 2.0
GDP growth rate (%)

supply,
change. 6andWeenergy argue for information
further research and emission models.
1.0on characterization Electronic financial of
and modelling andsuppressed
disaggregated. demand, EPMsclimate are numerical
change impacts, models and
1.0 and
Political stability

6 1.0 6
databases
socio-political — namely feedback Google Scholar, ScienceDirect,
in developing countries,
0.0
JSTOR,
and the IEEE
development utilize ofquantitative
contextual 0.0
data
EPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters
0.0
Xplore,4 Scopus, Web of Science, and other −1.0
official 4websites with are typically interpreted −1.0
as
4 ordinal data for modelling purposes.
−1.0
energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to
2 −2.0 2 −2.0 2 −2.0

H
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic
(IEA) uman activitiesInformation
have led to rapid changes in atmospheric con- are concerned
requirewith increasing access fortoa electricity, which is consid-
−3.0 −3.0 −3.0
0and Energy Administration (EIA)
0 — were sectors disaggregated 0 data better interpretation of the
centrations
1995 2000 of greenhouse
searched for relevant publications using the keywords
2005 2010 gas (GHG)
2015 emissions 1
1995, contribut-
listed
2000 in ered
existing
2005 a prerequisite
2010systems.2015 for development
1995 2000 and economic
2005 2010 empowerment,
2015

Table ing to and amplifyingYear global climate change2. Fossil fuels and Year
1. The keywords were categorized into five-word j groups, as reflected In the case byof theunderlying
inclusion methods,
of energy optimization
asYear
a goal in the wasSustainable
utilized in
land-use
which were changecombined (for example,
using thethrough Booleandeforestation
operator ‘AND’ 8
and , farming)
for exam- Development
thirteen
Pakistan
models Goals
because
10
. The
they current
would CO
create2 emissions
an optimization per capita loop as of
are
ple,two primary
‘Energy planningsources of GHG
model’ AND emissions,
‘Forecasting’ of which AND the‘Input
emissionsvari- developing
a way of countries
testing whether
2.0 are low,the often
selected much outputbelow the global
satisfies the average
defined
GDP growth rate (%)

from
ables’ land
ANDuse has been nearly
‘Organization’ ANDconstant
‘Global’. Based
3
, whileon thetheemissions
search
6 and from (Fig. 1c). Hence,
the constraints. In some emission
1.0 reduction
Political stability
models, especially is not
energyalways on the and
demand agenda supplyfor
fossil-fuel based
available literature, energy
thirty-foursystems increased
models developedby 50%bybetween international 2000 models, developing the countries,
primary even at a iscursory
0.0 objective to find level,
the except forsolution
least-cost a few large for
4
and 2013 (ref.or
organizations
4
). institutions
Current energy were and selectedtransportation
for analysis systems
(Table can 2). the countries
energysuch as−1.0
market. China and India11methods
Optimization . in such models would
result in substantial
In addition to the published GHG discharges
journal articles
5
, withand a likely
books, 2 global
manuals mean of render Energy the planning −2.0 models
opportunity to test(EPMs)
different playpolicies
an essentialagainstrole theinleast-the
temperature
different models increase were between
investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C,
explorewith their
a median structureof 3.2and °C cost development
option. of −3.0
the energy
However, sector methods
simulation at global,were nationalalso and
utilizedregional
in a
by
key2100 (ref. 6). Even
components. The ifreviewedcurrent modelsGHG concentrations
were categorized
0 remain con- levels by enabling informed decision-making. EPMs are especially
1995 based 2000on 2005 significant
2010 number 2015 of models.
stant,
modelthe world will
objectives experience a the
to contextualize few subsequent
centuries ofanalysis rising tempera-
and dis- Year crucial as significant investments in innovative energy research and
ture and Model
cussion. ocean level 7,8
structures . Therefore,
were then substantial
analysedreductionsto investigate in global planning are country
their Developing required characteristics
for decarbonization 12
. The development
not addressed in ePMsof
GHG
Fig. 2 |emissions
relevancetrends are essential
andindeficits
gDP growth andforpolitical
in developing mitigating stability.
contexts. climate
a–j,
ForGDP change.
thegrowth
categoriza-and politicalEPMs started
stability
Almost all scores
EPMs in are
the
were late
shown 1950s andin
for developed
constructed early 1960s
(a–e)
developed and(ref.
13
developing
countries ) but(Table
intensi-
(f–j) 3)
tionInbyaddition
countries. model tostability
Politicalobjective,the infrastructural
(political stability
four categories elements
andwereabsence of national
used: ofenergy energy
violence/terrorism)
infor- and fied
and after
GDPthe
considered oiltheir
growth crisis of thesystems,
are illustrated
energy 1970s
by hollowin light of the
blue diamond
economic realization
and red circular
assumptions, of the
and the
systems
shapes (that
mationrespectively.
systems, is, generation,
Straight lines
energy distribution,
represent theand
demand–supply, transmission),
fitted regression line,access
energy–economic visually effects to
and depicting
extent of
the exogenous
trendGHG
which in thepolitical
data. Dataevents
emissions is taken
need onfrom
to beglobalrefs and
reduced. 64,65 national energy
.While CO2 emis-
to grid emissions
energy electricity models. and purchasing power of EPM
Table 2 illustrates the population
types, andinflu- their supply sions per. Itcapita
14
was necessary,
in high-income then, tocountries
criticallyare assess the interrelation-
decreasing (Fig. 1b),
ence
inputs,energy
outputs, end-use and and GHG emissions.
underlying methods.Figure 1a illustrates that
Five characteristics of ships
they are between the sources
increasing in theofdeveloping
energy supply and demand,
upper-middle andasmiddle-
well as
both
input access
Amongvariables to electricity
the 34were reviewed and
analysed: EPMs, per capita
qualitative,
none addressedCO emissions
quantitative,
2 are more
financial, historical
the implications to identify
income pathways
data up towhose
countries, for long-term
an acceptable
primarylimitdevelopment of
while compensating
objective the energy
often is to improve forsec-
the
significant
aggregated
of corruption in
and high-income
on disaggregated.
the energy countries,
Although
economy. compared
Infinancial
addition todata
low-income
to are typically
corruption, tor
and possible 15
access . The drive foringlobal
tovariations
convenient temporal
forms sustainability
of and spatial
energy. inresolutions.
Despitethe 1990sthe fact — spurred
that some in
middle-income
classed
none ofas the‘quantitative’
reviewed developing , basedcountries.
models on the extensive
considered Most developed
use
the effect of these
politicalcountries
insta- particular
variables EPMs havebybeen the Rio widely Earth Summit
adopted forinenergy
1992 and system the planning
1995 report in
can
in ensure
different
bility 100%
on the modelseconomy, access
it was
which todeemed
electricity,
was found which
worthwhile
to only
to include
be prominent a few develop-
inthem
develop- of
as a Climate the Intergovernmental
developing change
countries,impact. Panelconsideration
they Climate
lack onchange
Climate Change
is ofprojected (IPCC)
a substantial to dispro-
16
num- —
ing countries
separate
ing contexts. can
characteristic. match.
Also, the influence In 2010,
The underlying annual
of per-capita per
methods capita
income wereCO emissions
categorized
change
2 brought forward
ber of issues affecting
drives portionately the
impact some issue of
developing GHG emissions
contexts;countries
developing and
for example, their impact
(for the effects
example, on
ranged
into
energy from 0.02–15.14
accounting
consumption framework, tCOregression,
differently 2 inin developing
low and middle-income
optimization,
economies economic, compared the
of aenvironment.
coun- Bangladesh, lack of Philippines, As a result,
innovation, and
Malawi further
the varying
and models
India) nature were
not of developed
only because for
privatization, of
tries, compared ones;
to in developed to 1.6–42.63
it was found tCO2that in high-income
this aspect was ones. In general,
modelled less theirprojecting climate status
development changeand andperceived
investigating the environmental
shortcomings in adapta-
there is a positive
elaborately in the reviewedassociation EPMs. between electricity access and GHG tion impact and itsbut
capacity mitigation.
also because However,
of their given that some
inherent two-thirdsand
geographical of
emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- social global vulnerabilities.
GHG emissionsMoreover, come from the electricity,
the global energy system is tran-heat, and trans-
income
Data country, which had 98%and access to electricity but per portation away
capita sitioning sectors 4
, thecentralized
integrationgeneration
of the environmental aspectstoofa
Tableinadequacy.
1 | Searched keywords Estimation and associated projection groupsquality in EPMs from and management
CO 2 emissions
depends on dataofadequacy1.7 tCO2, and wellaccuracy,
below theasaverage historical of 2.09trends tCO 2 for
deter- energydistributed,
more demand and supply within
intermittent EPMs became
renewable energy and necessary,
land-based pro-
all
minelowthe
Model and middle-income
future projection. EPMs countries
Objective in 2010.
are mostly This is because
mathematical 93.3%
Components
models viding awhere
in system, comprehensive
landOrigin
and of picture of theresilience
development
infrastructure interrelationships
geographical to natural between
applicability
hazards
of Costa
which
Energydata
Rica’s
inadequacy
planning
energycan wasresult
from in renewable
Forecasting
resources, or
inaccurate estimation, of Input
atwhich
least energy,
is
variables becomingenvironment,
increasingly and climate
Organization important,change. even for energy planning43.
Global
hydroelectric
increase sources accounted
the uncertainty of prediction. for 75.8% (ref. 9
). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have
Energy information ProjectionAlso, incomplete data records The impacts of climate
Estimation methods Country change on the broader Regional economy and envi-
As athe
hinder result, future of
assessment energy
potentialplanning objectives
interrelations amongof developed
the variables, and been ronment developed
requirebythe researchers
considerationand organizations
of region-specific in differentand coun-coun-
Energy economic
developing countries Demanddifferent.
are distinctly and supply;Indemand; Output
coun-variables Country
rendering the EPM development process difficult. developed
Data inadequacy tries, with various
try-specific parameters objectives and scopes.
for resilience, EPMs range
adaptation, mitigation,from and the
tries, the focus today is on supply
reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun-
is reportedly more pronounced in developing contexts than that of development in EPMs. None of the EPMs reviewed considers the
energy security,
Energy supply
developed ones and primarily
40–42 demand
, in particularcharacterized
Economic
regarding bythea shift
requiredfromlevel dis- try,
fossiloffuels region
impacts of or the world
climate change. — to the more
Even energysectoral
emissions — providing
models consider projec-
towards
aggregation more
Energy supply renewable
and resolution, resources.
well asHowever,
as Emission the provenance
control developing of data. Careful tions
countries of the energy needs
only energy-related of, for and
emissions example,may transportation
also consider their or industry.
future
considerations
Energy demand should be given, especially in developing contexts, to evolution from decarbonization perspectives.
the collection of quality-assured data. On the other hand, modelling Energy versus land versus food considerations are also impor-
Emission
BRE reduction
Trust Centre for Sustainable
approaches should be flexibleEngineering,
enough toSchool of Engineering,
accommodate Cardiff University,
incomplete Cardiff, UK. *e-mail:
tant. Land-based economic DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk
sectors are particularly vulnerable to
48 Nature eNergy
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© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
Nature. All
All rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
 rgy NaTurE
NaTurE ENErgy
ENErgy Review
REPRINT GRAND ARticle
CHALLENGES Re
a 100 United States
eristics of existing energy planning models
Low and middle income
51,200 High income Belgium R2 = 0.33
Qatar
Input variablesa Methodb R =Kuwait
0.50 2 Outp
United States Luxembourg
Qul Qua Fin agg Disaag re OP Italy eC
Brunei Darussalam SM eQ aF en
Bahrain Australia
system 25,600 R =Russian
0.90 Federation 2
Canada
New Zealand Belgium
10 ✓ ✓ ✓ 2
Finland
Denmark ✓
R = 0.45
Austria
✓ ✓ Palau Argentina ✓Slovenia Malaysia
CO2emissions (metric tons per capita)

Hungary France
Mongolia
odel 12,800 Guyana Latvia Lithuania
Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. Argentina Algeria
Jamaica
✓ ✓ ✓ the Grenadines ✓d
St. Vincent andMexico
R2 = 0.78
Mauritius
Marshall Islands Peru Singapore
✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓ ✓ R✓ ✓e ✓ ✓
2
Angola Namibia = 0.92 Brazil
Fiji Liechtenstein
India Brazil Honduras
1 ✓ 6,400
✓ ✓ ✓ e
✓ ✓ 2
✓
GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$)

R = 0.96
0✓ 25 ✓ 50 Senegal 75 100
✓ ✓
Zimbabwe ✓ ✓e ✓
Benin Bhutan
pply model Mauritania Kenya Bangladesh Thailand Sri Lanka
Tajikistan
✓ Liberia
3,200
✓ ✓ Haiti ✓
R2 = 0.97 Lao PDR ✓
Kazakhstan ✓
Afghanistan
✓ ✓ Tanzania ✓ ✓
Guinea ✓ ✓ R2 = 0.84
✓ ✓
Albania
Eritrea
0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Comoros R2 = 0.74 ✓e
Nepal ✓f ✓
Somalia
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓d Ukraine ✓ ✓ ✓
1,600 Madagascar Philippines
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓d R2 = 0.76 ✓ ✓
Chad R2 = 0.89
✓ Burundi ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Kenya
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Georgia ✓
800 R2 to
Access = 0.90
electricity (% of population)
0.01 ✓ ✓ Cambodia ✓ ✓ R2 = 0.87 ✓
✓ ✓ R2 = 0.92 ✓ ✓ ✓
Bangladesh
b ✓ ✓ c✓ ✓ Zimbabwe d ✓ ✓
16 400 100 R2 = 0.98 40
✓ ✓ ✓ R2 = 0.62 ✓
CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2 per capita)

Nepal
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 35 ✓
CO2 emissions (tCO2 per capita)

R2 = 0.98
12 ✓ 200 Ethiopia 10
✓d 30 ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓ R2 = 0.98
✓ ✓ ✓d CO2 emissions (Gt) ✓ ✓ ✓
25
model
✓ 8 ✓ ✓ ✓1 20 ✓ ✓
100 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
✓ ✓ ✓
10 ✓
100 1,000 15 ✓
10,000 ✓
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ (kWh per capita)
Electricity consumption ✓ ✓
4 0.1 10
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Fig. 3 | gDP per capita versus electricity consumption from 1995 to 2013. The R2 values denote the coefficient5 of determination, which measures how
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
close the data are to the fitted regression lines. Data taken from ref. 9.
0 ✓ ✓ ✓0.01 ✓ 0 ✓
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
✓ ✓ ✓
sea-level rise, as well as natural Year disasters such as floods, tsunamis, manifested Year in the transformation of agrarian Year lands into industries
✓Worlddue to increased
and landslides ✓ Middle income all ✓
precipitation, of which
Bangladesh and energy infrastructures
are pro- Afghanistan Costa Rica in World
populated countries✓ Lowerwith middlesevere
income ✓
jected to ✓ occur with increased
Upper middle income
✓ frequency. Developing ✓ countries are shortages of buildable land — which affects food
Nigeria Maldives Philippines High income ✓ production. The
Low income ✓
Low and middle income Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income
particularly✓High vulnerable
income to
✓these impacts because✓ of their
Belgium tropical World situation is exacerbated ✓d when a Middle significant
income share of arable land is ✓
and sub-tropical locations and geomorphology44. For projected sea- allocated to energy crop production, leading to a conflict between
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
level1 |rises
Fig. of 45 andcharacteristics.
CO2 emissions 100 cm, up toa, 15,600 and 30,000
CO2 emissions versuskm
2
accessof toland the goals
electricity of energyand
in high-income and food securities
low-income countries—inboth
2010. ofAccess
whichtoare critical
electricity
area ✓
respectively will be ✓ permanently flooded ✓
in Bangladesh ✓developing countries with relatively large populations and ✓
3.5–100% of, the issues In
cor-population. for
45
in low-income and middle-income countries ranges from contrast, the figure is 72.6–100% in high-income countries. b, CO2
responding
emissions ✓perto up toforabout
capita the✓ one-fifth
period of thec,country’s
1992–2011. ✓total per
CO2 emissions land capita modest
area.in selected land mass,
developed such as Bangladesh.
and developing countries forOf thethe✓34 1972–2011.
period studied models,d, CO2 ✓
The production
emissions ✓in countriesof rice, the staple
by income
✓ groupfood,
in✓the will
perioddecrease from
1960–2011. The236 to ✓
income onlyclassification
group BD2050 considered
used here isthe effects
that from theof World
energyBank sector development
list of economies ✓
96 kg per capita per year if the sea levellower risesmiddle
by 32income,
cm by 2050, and (forupper example,
middleland-based bioenergy) on andfood production 51
. Before
3 (July 2015): 34 low income, US$1,045
32 or less;10 27 US$1,046–4,125; 8 13 income,10 US$4,126–12,735;
11 high7 income, US$12,736 3 or 30
30 kg Data
more. per capita
is takenperfrom yearref. if9. the rise is 88 cm by 2100 (ref. ). In the BD2050’s launch in 2015, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s
46

case of Maldives, Fin

ve); Qua (quantitative); the (financial);
entire island country could drown if and
Agg (aggregated); the sea Disag (IAEA) Wien Automatic
(disaggregated). System Planning
Methods: package (WASP)
RE (regression); was
OP (optimization) b

ulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). Output types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co c
level rises, as the highest point is only 2.4 m higher than sea level. predominantly used for energy planning. WASP is essentially an
Moreover, energy infrastructure in several countries is vulnerable to optimum-solution finder for supply-side expansion and is mostly
Given thatrise
sea-level the IEA
47,48
, asestimates
they are situatedthe growth nearin the
energy
waterdemand
resource,oversuch the developing
unsuitable for countries
modelingbut did not present
land-based details on The
interactions. relevant socio-
increasing
next 23 years will be higher in developing 49 Asian countries than the
as rivers and seas,17for cooling purposes . Direct impacts of climate interactions between food, land and energy, therefore, needettoal.be
economic parameters and their effect on policies. Pfenninger 20

rest of the
change
nd competition world in
on energy and the
systems future emissions
are thus relatedfrom
energy growthinfrastructure
to industry
energy regions 22will
. Policycategorized
modeled andEPMs
assessed into
centralized four types:
holistically for energyto
informed
one system
an optimization;
decision-making.
intelligent an
betocritical
s need resilience beandin more
the current
energy 1.5 °C temperature
production
country-specificwhen vulnerablediscourse 1
, or
lands it are used energy
is essen-
regional, system
Effects simulation;
of cial
extreme weather power
vulnerabilitieseventssystem and in
also need electricity
to be market
considered.
households. A
ferences tial to
for energyunderstand
crops.
in objectives how EPMs reflect the challenges
due to the common socio- being faced by and qualitative
Extreme weather and
essary mixed
events are methods.
totypically
provide They recommended
rare, yethigher
climate change further
will
reliability o
bility ordecision-makers
As a matter ofincourse,
conditions, different
and andparts of the
line withworld.
ingeographical the theoretical anddiscourse climatic development
make some ofand theseintegration
Inevents the of innovative
more likely to occur
following approaches
andsections,
more into EPMs
likely to the i
dicators on Previous
stages
relevant of work
economic has
toreviewed
growth,
most EPMs
the leastofdeveloped
different types.
developing Suganthi be
and developing
economies to address
severe52the complex interactions
. Slow-onset
developing events suchamong disciplines
as heatwaves
countries andsuch
is as social
unexpected
analysed, f
egarding et al.18 categorized
countries energymanagement;
aim to become
resource demand projection
developing modelsassessment
and developed based on their low
respectively science, ecology,
temperatures
of finance,
have aand
difference behavioural
direct effect
in on psychology.
comfort-related
socio-economic Urbanenergyet al.21 char
methods
—
s; the economic but misclassified
representing a gradual
and bottom-up
shift in focusand
technical from top-down approaches.
agricultural
challenges towards associ-analysed53twelve
demand , in and EPMspolitical
addition totoinvestigate
the resultingtheir suitabilitymortality,
stability,
increased forasdeveloping
well
espe- as th
nsformation Bhattacharyya
more industrialized et al.
of thesocieties
19
analysed
energy 50 available EPMs for application in
infrastructure
. Industrial development is often from contexts
cially a and suggested
among following that
the elderly, children critical
section characteristics
and the infirm. explores of developing
While the influ
effects
Nature eNergy| ||172–184
VOL 3
3 || MARCH
MARCH| 2018
2018 49
Nature
3 | MARCH eNergy
2018 VOL || 172–184
172–184 || www.nature.com/natureenergy
www.nature.com/natureenergy
www.nature.com/natureenergy 173
179
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Publishers part
part of
of Springer
Limited,Limited, Springer Nature. All
Nature.of
part rights
rights reserved.
All Springer
reserved. Nature. All rights reserved.
 Review
ReviewARticle
ARticle NaTurE ENErgy
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2
countries
a such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, b and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi-
overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into 15,625energy, emissions, and cost measures. United States
tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed 34 models, quantitative and financial R2 = 0.92data
drivers such as political stability (or lack thereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 and 32 models respectively. 27 models New usedZealand
disag-

High income
United States

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models

energy markets in developing contexts. Belgium
gregated data as input variables. In the case of the output R2 variables,
= 0.92
In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis Italy
of con- most of the model’s outputs are energy (30 models), emission Italy (29
textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), 3,125and cost (28 models). Model outputs are often R2 =normal-
0.97

in the developing-world context

economic
20,000 variables for EPMs in the developing world context. To
that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, and emissions per unit GDP. Reviewed models
ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit
Argentina
R2 =adopted
0.93

Electricity consumption (kWh/capita)

GNI per capita (constant 2005 US$)

EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies Mexicofor energy different underlying methods for estimation and Thailand projection.

Upper middle
R2 = 0.97
systems in developing countries. Our focus is on theArgentina factors that Optimization methods are widely utilized (13 models), followed
Kumar
affect the demandBiswajit andDebnath 
supply of energy,  * and as well Monjur
as the rationalMourshed 
South devel- by
Africa   simulation 625 (11 models) and economic (10 models)Philippines methods.
R2 = 0.89
opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Brazil Optimization methods are mostly applied to energy demand Bangladesh
and
Kazakhstan
Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments supply, of andimpact
the economic of models. policies on the economyR2and
energy = 0.99envi-
Albania
typology
ronment. Most and structure EPMs originated of energy in planning
developed models
countries and are primarily EPMs have aimed three common components
at reducing greenhouse and gas aemissions
basicCambodia
workflow:
while
Thailand

Lower middle
We conducted a systematic
enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not survey of published literature on all,EPMs.
developing variables →
inputcountries are underlying
predominantly estimation or projection
concerned with methods
increasing
R 2
= 0.99
→
Georgia
Our
energy study focuses on models predominantly
2,000access. Here, we review thirty-four widely Ukraine used for the planning output variables.
125 Key
used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countriesvariations, however, lie in the type, resolution
Kenyaand find
of
an energy
absence systems and infrastructures
of consideration and that arechallenges,
of the objectives, more strategic, (temporal and spatial), scope and timeframe of the inputarise
Philippines and nuances of the developing context. Key deficiencies R
and
2 output
= 0.84from
as
theopposed
lack ofto operational.of
deliberation First,
thealowpreliminary
energy demand study wasresulting conducted fromvariables.
lack of access Model and objectives
availabilityand the of nature
supply.ofOther the data most often
inadequacies
Ethiopia
to gatherthe
include an lack overview of the topics of
of consideration related to EPMs Bangladesh
socio-economic that resultedsuch
nuances determine
as the prevalencethe choice of ofestimation
corruptionorand projection
resulting methods.
costR2inflation,
= 0.81
in
thethemethodsidentification
for adequately of two main addressingthemes:the energy
shortcomingsdemand
Cambodia and in data quality, Primaryavailability
input variables and in the studied
adequacy, and EPMs
the are quantitative,
effects of climate
supply,
change.and Weenergy information and emission models. Electronic financial 25of andsuppressed
disaggregated. EPMsclimate are numerical models and and
Low income
argue for further research on characterization Kenya and modelling demand, change impacts,
databases
socio-political — namely feedback Google Scholar, ScienceDirect,
in developing countries, and JSTOR,
Nepal IEEE utilize ofquantitative
the development contextual data EPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters
Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and other official websites Zimbabwe with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes.
energy databanks, specifically United Nations (UN), World Bank, While modelling energy infrastructure in a holistic approach to

H
International
200
Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency cover a broader context, the supply, demand and socio-economic
(IEA) uman activities have led to1990
rapid changes in atmospheric con- are concerned with increasing access fortoa electricity, which is consid-
5
and
1960 Energy 1970 Information 1980 Administration
2000 2010 (EIA) — were sectors require
1960 disaggregated
1970 1980 data1990 better
2000 interpretation
2010 of the
searched centrations
for relevant of greenhouse
publications
Year
gas using
(GHG)the emissions
keywords
1
, contribut-
listed in ered
existing a prerequisite
systems. for development Year
and economic empowerment,
Table ing to and amplifying global climate change . Fossil fuels and as reflected byof theunderlying
inclusion methods,of energy optimization
as a goal in the wasSustainable
2
1. The keywords were categorized into five-word groups, In the case utilized in
land-use
which
Fig. were
4 | growth change
combined
trends (foracross
example,
using thethrough
Boolean
developed anddeforestation
operator ‘A
developing and
ND’
countries. farming)
, for Growth inDevelopment
exam-
a, thirteen
GNI per modelscapita Goals
ofbecause
10
. The
different they current
would
countries from CO
create2 emissions
1960 an b, per
optimization
to 2014. Growth capita
loop
trends of
as
are
ple,
in two primary
‘Energy
electricity planning
consumption sources ofofdifferent
model’ GHG AND emissions,
‘Forecasting’
countries of which
from 1960AND tothe
2014. emissions
‘Input b, trends a
In vari- developing
inway
the dataof countries
testing
are whether
visually are low,
depicted the byoften
fittedmuch
selected below
output
regression theThe
satisfies
lines. global
the
y-axis average
defined
values
from
are on land
ables’ AND use
a logarithmic has scale,
‘Organization’ been and nearly
AND constant
‘Global’
the dashed and
3
, while
. Based on
solid linesthethe emissions
search
denote and from
exponential the and (Fig. 1c). Hence,
constraints.
logarithmic In emission
some
progression models,
of thereduction
especially
data, is not always
energy
respectively. The on the and
demand
income agenda
group supplyfor
fossil-fuel
classification based
available literature, energy
used herethirty-four systems
is that from models increased
the World developed
Bank bylist50%ofby between
international
economies 20002015):
(July developing
models,
low income,the countries,
primary even
US$1,045objective
or less; at lower
a iscursory
to find
middle level,
the
income, except
least-cost forsolution
a few large
US$1,046–4,125; for
and
upper 2013
organizations
middle (ref. or). institutions
4
income, Current
US$4,126–12,735;energy
were and and transportation
selected for analysis
high income, systems
US$12,736 (Table orcan 2). Data
more. countries
the energy
taken from such as 9China
market.
ref. and India11methods
. Optimization . in such models would
result
In additionin substantial
to the published GHG discharges 5
journal articles, withand a likely
books,global manuals mean of render Energy the planning
opportunity models to test(EPMs)
different playpolicies
an essential againstrole theinleast-the
temperature
different models increase were between
investigated2.0–4.9 to °C,
explorewith their
a median structure of 3.2and °C cost development
option. of the energy
However, sector methods
simulation at global,were national also and
utilizedregional
in a
by
key2100
such (ref. 6are
components.
as these ). Even The
common ifreviewed
current GHG
models
to both theconcentrations
were categorized
developing and remain basedcon-
developed levels by enabling
on significant
characteristics number informed
of theof models.
extremely decision-making.
poor, the pervasiveness EPMs are especially of small
stant,
modelthe
countries, world
objectives
the amplitudewill experience
to contextualize a the
and duration few subsequent
centuries
of extreme ofanalysis
rising
events,tempera-
and crucial as significant
dis- unregistered
as well businesses, investments
the presence in innovative
of large energy research
informal sectors, cor- and
ture
cussion.
as the and ocean level
Model
inability
7,8
structures
to cope . Therefore,
withwere then
their substantial
analysed
sudden reductions
to investigate
onset, are often in global
more planning and
their Developing
ruption, are country
required characteristics
subsidies. for decarbonization
Moreover, mostnot
12
. Theaspects
addressed
of these development
in ePMs
have of
sel-
GHG
relevance
pronouncedemissions
andindeficitsare essential
tropical inand for mitigating
developing
sub-tropical contexts. climate
developing For change.
the categoriza-
countries; EPMsbeen
dom
for Almost started in the
all addressed
EPMs were late a1950s
inconstructed andin
reasonable early
level 1960s
of detail
developed (ref. 13
) but
in the
countries intensi-
literature.
(Table 3)
tionInbyaddition
example, model
heatwaves to the in infrastructural
objective, India four andcategories
Pakistan elements
were
in 2015 of (ref.
used: national
energy
54
). Air energy
infor-
con- and fied considered
The after
gap in theknowledge
oiltheir
crisis ofis the
energy 1970s in
exacerbated
systems, light
by the
economic oflimited
the realization
assumptions, availabilityandof theof
the
systems (that
mation systems,
ditioning is,
accountsenergy generation, distribution,
for 28%demand–supply, and
of electricity consumption transmission),
energy–economic in the hottestaccess
and extent effects
modeling toof exogenous
expertise
which GHG political
in events
developing
emissions need on global
countries.
to be reduced. and national
Complexities
While CO energy
such
2 emis-
to grid emissions
energy
months electricity
in Delhi, India and55purchasing
models. powerstarted
Table 2 illustrates
. Although India of EPMtheitspopulation
types,
first andinflu-
energy-effi- their as supply
sionsthese per.make
14
Itcapita
wasthe necessary,
inenergy
high-income then, tocountries
models incritically
developing assess
are the interrelation-
countries
decreasing more
(Fig. vul-
1b),
ence
inputs, energy
ciency ratingoutputs, end-use
for and and GHG emissions.
underlying methods.
air conditioning and labeling Figure
Five 1a illustrates
characteristics
programme that
in 2006 ships
of nerable between
they aretoincreasingpoorthe sources
in theofdeveloping
characterization energy comparedsupply and
to
upper-middle thedemand,
energy asmiddle-
andmodels well inas
both
input
(ref. ), access
56
variables to
aimed atwere electricity analysed:
reducing and per
annual capita
qualitative, CO emissions
electricityquantitative,
2 demand by financial, are more
27 TWh developed to identify
income pathways for long-term development
countries.whose primary objective often is to improve
countries, of the energy sec-
significant
aggregated
by 2020 (ref. in
and high-income
57
),disaggregated.
a heatwave countries,
Although
can compared
escalate financial todata
that demand low-income
are 58
. typically
Climate and tor access
15
. The drive for global
to convenient forms sustainability
of energy. Despite in the 1990s the fact — spurred
that some in
middle-income
classed as
change ‘quantitative’
impacts developing
are countries.
, basedconsidered
seldom on the extensive Most
in EPMs developed
use of thesecountries
probably because particular
variables EPMs havebybeen
Implications the
andRiowidely Earth
considerations Summit
adopted for inenergy
for 1992 and
ePMs system the planning
1995 report in
can ensure
in different
they originate 100%
models access
it wastodeemed
in developed electricity,
worthwhile
countries which
that have only
to been a few
include shown develop-
them toasbea of the Intergovernmental
developing
Although countries, they
developing countriesPanelconsideration
lack on Climate
have Change
of
lower per-capita (IPCC)
a substantial
GHG emis-
16
num- —
ing countries
separate
less can
characteristic.
vulnerable match.
than developing In 2010,
The underlying annual
countries,methods per capita
where climate CO emissions
were categorized
2change can brought
ber of than
sions forward
issuesthose the
affecting issue of GHG
developingcountries,
of developed emissions
contexts; for thereand their
example, impact
the effects
is an increasing on
ranged from 0.02–15.14
into accounting
cause immense framework,
damages 59tCO2 in low and middle-income coun-
. None regression,
of the reviewed optimization,EPMs consideredeconomic, the of aenvironment.
trend lack of innovation,
in emissions Assincea result,
and
1990.thefurther
Thevaryingratemodels
ofnature
change were ofisdeveloped
privatization,
often higher for
tries, compared
the climate change to 1.6–42.63
impact. BD2050 tCO2 inonly high-income
explored the ones. In general,
implication of projecting
than previously climate changeFor
projected. andexample,
investigating despitethe the environmental
energy system
there
energyispolicies
a positive on association
food security. between
That does electricity access andexplore
not necessarily GHG impact being mostly and itsbasedmitigation. However,energy
on renewable given that (93.3% someoftwo-thirds
the total in of
emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle-
the impact of climate change in Bangladesh. Energy demand pro- 2010), per capita,4 CO2 emissions in Costa Rica increased by 78.6% global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans-
income
jection country, which hadresilience 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors , the integration of the environmental aspects of
Table 1and infrastructure should, therefore,
groups consider the between 1990 and 2011 (ref. ). Similarly, higher emissions growth
9
| Searched keywords and associated
CO emissions
probability
2 of 1.7
of extreme weather tCO 2, well below the average of
events, especially in EPMs for devel- 2.09 tCO 2 for energy demand and
rates can be found for United Nations supply within EPMs became necessary,
Framework Conventionpro- on
all lowcountries.
Model
oping and middle-income countries Objectivein 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding Climatea Change comprehensive Origin ofpicture
(UNFCCC) developmentof the interrelationships
non-Annex geographical
countries that between
applicability
did not
ofEnergy
Costa Rica’s energy was from
planning
renewable resources, of Input
Forecasting
which energy,
have anenvironment,
variables emissionsOrganization and climate
reduction target change.
9
. In contrast,
Global most developed
hydroelectric
Effects of poor sources accounted
characterization. for 75.8%
Poor (ref. 9
).
characterization of the Over
countries the past
demonstrate four decades,
a decreasinga substantial
trend. CO number emissions of EPMs fromhave the
Energy information Projection Estimation methods
byCountry Regional 2
As a system
energy result, futureand itsenergy underlying planning objectives ofparameters
socio-economic developed can been
and developed nations
middle-income researchers
alreadyand organizations
surpassed that ofinthe different
high-income coun-
Energy economic
developing countries are Demanddifferent.
distinctly and supply;Indemand; Output
coun-variables Country
lead to inappropriate modeling of future energydevelopedand emissions tries,
countries, with asvarious objectives
illustrated in Fig.and 1d. scopes. EPMs range from
Upper-middle-income nations the
tries, the focus today is on supply
reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun-
scenarios in both developed and developing countries (Table 4). are also about to exceed the emissions from high-income countries.
energy security,
Energy supply
Inaccurate andprimarily
projections demandaffect characterized
Economic
energy system by a shiftplanningfrom and fuels try,
fossilinfra- regionIndia
Although or theand world China— todominate
the more in sectoral
emissions — providing
growth at projec-
pres-
towards
structure
Energy supply more renewableespecially
development, resources.
EmissioninHowever,
the longdeveloping
control term. Furthermore, countries tions of the energy
ent, Brazil, needs of, for
India, Indonesia, example,
China transportation
and South Africa are orprojected
industry.
energy dynamics in developing countries are complicated because to eclipse global GHG emissions in 2050 (ref. 60). According to the
Energy demand
of the prevalence and different distribution of the following socio- 2017 IEA World Energy Outlook17, China will start to decrease CO2
Emission
BRE reduction
Trust Centre
economic and for Sustainable
political Engineering,
parameters: Schoolstability,
political of Engineering, Cardiff University,
energy-use emissions Cardiff,
from UK. *e-mail:
2030 but DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk
will still emit 2.8 times more in 2040 than
50 Nature eNergy
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2018 Macmillan
Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
Nature. All
All rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
 rgy NaTurE
NaTurE ENErgy
ENErgy Review
REPRINT GRAND ARticle
CHALLENGES Re
a 100 14
eristics of existing energy planning models
Low and middle income High income High-income countries where EPMs have originated
Qatar
Input variablesa MethodbHigh income Kuwait Outp
United States Luxembourg
Qul Qua Fin agg Disaag
Ukraine re OP
Brunei Darussalam eC
Upper middle income SM eQ aF en
12 Bahrain Australia
Middle income
system Russian Federation Canada
Lower middle income Finland Belgium
10 ✓ ✓ ✓ Denmark ✓
Lower income Austria
✓ ✓ Palau Argentina ✓Slovenia Malaysia
CO2emissions (metric tons per capita)

10 Hungary France
Mongolia
odel Guyana Latvia Lithuania
Korea, Dem.
Guinea People’s Rep. Algeria
Jamaica
✓ ✓ ✓ St. Vincent and the Grenadines ✓d Mauritius
Marshall Islands UruguayPeru Singapore
✓ ✓ Lesotho ✓ Angola ✓ Namibia ✓ ✓e ✓ Brazil ✓
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

Fiji Bhutan Liechtenstein

India Honduras
1 ✓ 8 ✓ ✓ Russia ✓ ✓ ✓e ✓
0✓ 25 ✓ 50 Senegal 75 100
✓ Angola ✓ Zimbabwe
Bangladesh ✓ ✓e ✓
Benin Bhutan
pply model Kenya Bangladesh Sri Lanka
Mauritania Kenya Tajikistan
✓ Liberia6 ✓ ✓ Tajikistan
Haiti ✓ Lao PDR ✓ ✓
Afghanistan
✓ ✓ Tanzania ✓ ✓
Guinea Myanmar✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Paraguay Papua
Eritrea New Guinea
Comoros
0.1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓e
Hong Kong
Nepal ✓f ✓
Afghanistan Somalia Botswana
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Uganda
Chile
✓d ✓ ✓ ✓
4 Haiti
Madagascar Laos
✓ ✓ ✓
Cambodia ✓d ✓ ✓
Chad Burundi
✓ Burundi ✓ South Sudan ✓ ✓ Japan Qatar ✓
Iceland
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Barbados ✓ Australia ✓
Iraq Norway
2 Access to electricity (% of population)
✓ ✓ ✓ United
✓ States Canada ✓
0.01 Chad United Kingdom
Austria Netherlands
✓ ✓
Korea (North)
✓ Saint Vincent and the ✓ Bahamas Germany Finland ✓
b c✓ Grenadines France Singapore d New Zealand
✓ ✓ Comoros ✓ Belgium Denmark ✓ ✓
16 100 Poland Ireland 40 Luxembourg
✓ 0
Zimbabwe ✓ ✓ Estonia Sweden ✓
CO2 emissions per capita (tCO2 per capita)

Portugal
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 35
Switzerland ✓
CO2 emissions (tCO2 per capita)

12 ✓ Guinea-Bissau 10 Cyprus ✓d 30 ✓ ✓
✓ −2 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓d CO2 emissions (Gt) ✓ ✓ ✓
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 25 90 100
model
CPI Score (2014)
✓ 8 ✓ ✓ ✓1 20 ✓ ✓
1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
✓ Fig. 5 | Comparison
✓ ✓
of corruption ✓ Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2014 versus15
perceptions with inflation. ✓
inflation (2014) among the top and bottom ✓
35 countries
✓of the CPI list. ✓
High-income countries where✓ EPMs have originated
✓are illustrated by hollow purple diamond
✓ shapes. For detail, see Table 3. ✓
4 0.1 10
Data taken✓ from refs 9,66. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
5
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
in 2000. 0 ✓
On the other hand, ✓ CO2 emissions from✓ advanced econ- ✓deficient parameters and outcome
0.01 0
variables are well established and ✓
omies 1992
started1995 to decline
1998 2001 in 2014,
2004 and2007by 20102040, they will emit 0.3 accepted by the stakeholders, 1960the 1970
decision 1980 on integration
1990 2000 versus
2010
✓ ✓ ✓
times less than in 2000. However, Year CO2 emissions from the rest of the new Year EPM development will depend on the complexity Year of integra-
world will ✓keep
World increasing ✓ gradually,Middleand income ✓ Bangladesh
will collectively tion with the existing
emit 2.4 Afghanistan Costa Ricamodel and the potential
World ✓for Lower
contribution in
middle income ✓
times more ✓CO2 by 2040✓
Upper middle than in 2000.
income ✓ Nigeria policy development and energy planning. On✓
Maldives Philippines High income the other hand, not
Low income ✓
Low and middle income Canada United Kingdom United States Upper middle income
The current discourse
✓High income ✓on economic development is that along World
✓ Belgium all deficiencies need✓ to dbe accountedMiddlefor in all model types. Table 5
income ✓
with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), eleven provides an applicability matrix of the identified variables against
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
further
Fig. 1 | COcountries, known as N-11 countries — Bangladesh, Egypt, model typologies.
2 emissions characteristics. a, CO2 emissions versus access to electricity in high-income and low-income countries in 2010. Access to electricity
Indonesia, ✓Iran, Mexico,✓ Nigeria, Pakistan, thefrom ✓
Philippines, ✓ ✓
in low-income and middle-income countries ranges 3.5–100%Turkey, A summary
of the population. In contrast,of thepotential considerations
figure is 72.6–100% for the identified
in high-income countries. b,defi-
CO2
South Korea
emissions ✓ and Vietnam
per capita for the✓ — have
period a high
1992–2011. c, CO ✓ of becoming ciencies for the development of or integration✓
potential into future country-
2 emissions per capita in selected developed and developing countries for the period 1972–2011. d, CO2
✓
among the
emissions ✓ world’s largest
in countries ✓economies
by income group in✓ in the
the twenty-first
period 1960–2011. century
61
The income . ✓ specific
group or region-specific
classification used here islocalized
that from EPMs
the World follows.
Bank list of economies ✓
Projectionslow of energy demand or growth in smaller economies with
3 (July 2015): 34 income, US$1,045 32 less;10lower middle27 income, US$1,046–4,125;
8 upper13 middle income, 10 US$4,126–12,735;
11 and high7income, US$12,736 3 or 30
more significant
more. Data populations
is taken from ref. 9. have mostly been inaccurate. For Suppressed demand. Detailed relationships between the constitu-
example, the 2010Fin
ve); Qua (quantitative); Power Sector Master
(financial); Agg Plan (PSMP) projected
(aggregated); and that
Disag ent(disaggregated).
variables of energy Methods: demand — such as the elasticityOP
RE (regression); between
(optimization) b

ulation); EQ (equilibrium); and AF (accounting framework). Output types: En (energy — demand/supply); Em (emissions); and Co c
primary energy demand in Bangladesh in 2030 would be 616 TWh income threshold and buying capacity and grid connectivity —
(ref. 62), which was later revised up in the 2015 plan to 860 TWh need to be addressed in EPMs for developing contexts.
Given
in the that the IEA
‘business estimates
as usual’ the growth
(BAU) scenarioin— energy
a 40%demand increase over
in the
the developing countries but did not present details on relevant socio-
next 23 years will be higher in developing 63 Asian countries than the
projected amount17within five years (ref. ). The updated projected Dynamics economic parameters
between politicaland theirstability
effect onand policies. Pfenninger
economic growth. et Not
al.20
rest of the
demand
nd competition canworld and the
be ascribed
in future emissions
to flawed
energy fromindustry
assumptions growth
of theregions 22will
probability. Policycategorized
all developing EPMs into four
countries
centralized sharetypes:
similar
one energy system
political
to an optimization;
stability. If there
intelligent an
s need of betocritical
demandbeingrowth
the current
more and the 1.5lack
°C temperature discourseof1, suppressed
of the consideration
country-specific it is essen-
or regional, energyansystem
exists evident
cialsimulation;
correlation power
between
vulnerabilities system
economicand inelectricity
growth andmarket
politi-
households. A
ferences tial in
to understand
demand. Policies based
objectives how EPMs reflectto
on inaccurate
due the challenges
projections
the common arebeing faced
unlikely to by andstability,
cal
besocio- qualitative and mixed
itessary
should methods.
ideally
to They modeled
be explicitly
provide recommended
higher in the further
EPM.
reliability o
decision-makers
bility orefficient and sustainable.
conditions, in different
and parts of the world.
geographical and climatic development
Where and integration
the relationship In isthe not of innovative
conclusive,
following approaches
further researchinto EPMs
needs
sections, to the i
dicators The Previous work of
treatment
relevant hasthe
to reviewed
identified
most EPMs of different
deficiencies
developing types. planning
in energy Suganthi be
economies to address thedeveloping
conducted, complex
even for interactions among
implicit or proxy disciplines such
considerations.
countries is as social
analysed, f
egarding et al.18 categorized
models energymanagement;
needs to consider
resource demand
the local projection
contexts inmodelsdeveloping based on their science,
countries,
assessment of ecology, finance, and behavioural
difference psychology. Urban et al.21
in socio-economic char
methods
both
s; the economic but misclassified
regarding integration
and bottom-up
with existingand
technical top-down
models and forapproaches.
challenges the devel-associ-analysed twelve
Influence and EPMspolitical
of corruption to on
investigate
the energy their suitability
economy.
stability, fortreatment
The developing
as well of as th
nsformation Bhattacharyya
opment of new et
of ones. al.19
analysed
theIn casesenergy available
where empirical EPMs for application
relationships between
infrastructure in
from contexts
corruption
a and suggested
infollowing that critical
models should besection characteristics
context specific. of developing
Multiplier-based
explores the influ
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2018 51
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3 | MARCH eNergy
2018 VOL || 172–184
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181
©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Publishers part
part of
of Springer
Limited,Limited, Springer Nature. All
Nature.of
part rights
rights reserved.
All Springer
reserved. Nature. All rights reserved.
 Review
ReviewARticle
ARticle NaTurE ENErgy
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0095-2
countries such as the informal economy and supply shortages were simulation, and equilibrium methods. Output variables were classi-
Table 4 | effect of poor characterizations of energy systems and Table 5 | applicability of suggested variables in existing ePMs
overlooked. The study identified a bias towards industrialized coun- fied into energy, emissions, and cost measures.
economies of developing countries in energy planning models
tries in the EPMs, yet specifics were not offered on socio-economic Among the analysed
Variables types 34ofmodels,
models quantitative and financial data
drivers such as political stability
Model typologies effect(oroflack poorthereof) and corruption in are utilized in 34 andenergy
characterizations 32 models respectively.energy
27 models used
energy energy
disag-

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models

energy markets
Mathematical procedures
in developing contexts. gregated data as input variables.
information
In the case of the
demand– economic emissions
output variables,
In light of this, there is a lack of evidence-based analysis of con- most of the model’s systems outputs are energy supply(30 models), model emission model (29
Regression, economic, Fragmented or inaccurate data and
textual variations, model structures, and relevant emerging socio- models), and cost (28 models). Model model outputs are often normal-

in the developing-world context

simulations and accounting
economic variables for EPMsrelations in the in the calculation can prompt
developing world context. To ized; for example, cost per unit GDP, cost per capita, cost per unit
frameworks incorrect results
that end, we reviewed thirty-four current, highly used, macro-level generated, Political stability and emissions per unit ✓ GDP. Reviewed ✓ models adopted
Optimization Calculated best solutions may be
EPMs to investigate their applicability and deficiencies for energy different underlying methods for estimation Corruption ✓ and projection.
incorrect,
Ourbecause focus isof on the the
inadequate
factors that Optimization methods
systems in developing countries. Suppressed demand ✓ are widely✓utilized (13 ✓ models),✓ followed
Kumar
affect the demandBiswajit andDebnath 
supply interpretation
of energy,  * and as of Monjur
economy
well and
as the rationalMourshed 
resources
devel- by  Climate
simulation
change
(11 models) and economic
✓
(10✓
models)✓methods.
framework
opment of the energy sector in a developing country. Optimization
impacts methods are mostly applied to energy demand and
Equilibrium Overlooking the disequilibrium of supply, andimpact
economic models. policies on the economy and envi-
Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments of the of energy
typology
ronment. Most and structure
EPMs originated ofbusiness
energy insectors
planning
developedand overestimating
models
countries and are primarily EPMs have aimed three common components
at reducing greenhouse and gas aemissions
basic workflow: while
We conducted a systematic business
survey sector impacts
of published that prompt
literature on EPMs. input variables → underlying estimation or projection methods →
enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing
Our study focuses on models contorted
predominantly results21used for the planning our output variables.
analysis of 34 KeyEPMs variations,
revealed however,
several lie in
importantthe type, resolution
shortcomings
energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find
of
an energy
Modelling
absence systems
approaches and infrastructures
of consideration and that arechallenges,
of the objectives, more strategic, (temporal
for
and nuances of and
the developing the spatial), context.
developing scopecontext.
and timeframe of the inputarise
Key deficiencies and output from
as
the opposed
lack ofmodel
Top-down to operational.of
deliberation First,
the alow
Incorrectpreliminary
energy
or incomplete study
demand linkage or data infromvariables.
wasresulting
conducted A key
lack Model and
finding
of access objectives
from and the
our Review
availability ofisnature
the lack
supply. ofOther
the data
of considerationmost often
inadequacies in
to gather an overview of the topics related to EPMs that resulted determine
the
include the lack of consideration of socio-economic nuances such as the prevalence of corruption and resulting cost inflation,
model frameworks results in incorrectly analysed the choice
EPMs of oftheestimation
unique or projection
socioeconomic methods.
characteristics in
in
thethe identification
methods for adequatelyof twocomputed main
addressing themes:
outputs the energy demand and
shortcomings Primaryavailability
in datadeveloping
quality, input variables
countries and as
such insuppressed
the studied
adequacy, and EPMs
demand,
the effects are quantitative,
corruption,
of climate and
supply,
change.
Bottom-up andWe energy
modelargue for information
further and emission
research
Influenced models.
on characterization
by inappropriate or Electronic financial instability.
political
and modelling andsuppressed
of disaggregated.
Disregarding
demand, EPMs are numerical
suppressed
climate energyimpacts,
change models and
demand and
can
databases
socio-political — namely feedback Google Scholar, ScienceDirect,
in developing
incomplete countries,
relations JSTOR,
and
and information the development utilize ofquantitative
IEEE potentially underestimate
contextual data
EPMs. for calculation.
total demand, rendering Qualitative future parameters
planning
Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, in the and other official
frameworks, leading to websites are typically
incorrectwith inaccurate andinterpreted
ineffective,as ordinal for
especially data for modelling
long-horizon purposes.
planning such
energy databanks, specificallyresults United Nations (UN), World Bank, as While
2050modelling
pathways. energy Corruption infrastructure
is a complex in asocio-economic
holistic approach factor to

H
International Monetary
Hybrid modelactivities have ledHybrid
Fund (IMF), International
models couldin lead
Energy Agency
to inconclusive
cover
and cana broader
increase context,
capital the
and supply,
operation demand
costs of and
energy socio-economic
projects and
(IEA) uman and Energy Information to rapid
results due
changes
Administration
to inappropriate
atmospheric
(EIA) — were
interrelations
con- are concerned
sectors
infrastructurerequirein with increasing
disaggregated
some developing access
data for toa electricity,
betteraffecting
countries, which
interpretation is consid-
of the
sustainabil-
centrations of
searched for relevant publications greenhouse gas (GHG)
using theemissions
keywords
1
, contribut-
listed in ered
existing
ity. a prerequisite
Also, systems.
the economy for isdevelopment
sometimes and economic
linked with empowerment,
political instability,
of different parts of the 2system with
Table ing 1. Theto and amplifying
keywords were global climate change
categorized
economic
. Fossil fuels
into five-word
and scientific data
and as
groups, reflected
whichIn the on caseitsbyown theunderlying
of caninclusion
affect energyof energy
methods, as a goal in
optimization
infrastructure the
wasSustainable
resilience. utilized in
land-use
which were change
combined (for example,
using thethrough Booleandeforestation
operator ‘AND’ and , for exam- Development
farming) thirteen
Apartmodels fromGoals the .developing-context-specific
because
10
The
theycurrent
would create CO2 emissions
an optimization per capita
socio-economic loop as of
are
ple,two primary
‘Energy sources
planning of GHG
model’ AND emissions,
‘Forecasting’ of which AND the‘Input
emissions
vari- developing
a way
deficienciesof countries
testing
in the whether are low,
current the often
EPMs,selected much
climate below
outputchange theimpact
satisfies global
the average
defined
on land
from
ables’ land
modelling ANDwill use has beenand
‘Organization’
be time nearly
costconstant
AND ‘Global’. Based
effective
3
,ifwhile onthetheemissions
a significant search and from
relationship (Fig. 1c). Hence,
constraints.
the availability In some
and emission
food models, reduction
production especially is not
is likely always
energy
to on
demand
alter thethe agenda
and
dynamics supply for
of
fossil-fuel
available
exists based
literature,
between energy systems
thirty-four
corruption and increased
models
outcome by 50%byIn
developed
indicators. between
international
cases where developing
2000 energy–food–emissions
models, the countries,
primary even
objective at a iscursory
interactions, to find level,
the
especially except
least-cost
in the for a fewpopu-
solution
highly large
for
and
the 2013 (ref.or
organizations
relationship
4
). institutions
is Current
not apparent energywere and
selected
or cannot transportation
for analysis
be mathematically systems
(Table
formu- can countries
the
2). lated energy such
developing as China
market. countries. and India
Optimization
11
Increasing .
methods in such models
penetration of distributedwould
result
In addition
lated in substantial
to the published
conveniently, GHG discharges
underlying journal
causesarticles
5
, with
can be anda likely
books,global
investigated manuals mean
further. Energy
render
of energy the planning
opportunity
resources andmodels to test
bioenergy (EPMs) goalsplay
different an essential
policies
require against
that EPMs role inleast-
theshould the
temperature
different models increasewere between
investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, with their
explore a median structureof 3.2and °C now development
cost option.
consider ofland-based
the energy
However, sector methods
simulation
interactions at global,
between national
were also
energy, and
utilizedregional
food, in
and a
by
key2100
Data (ref. 6). Even
gathering,
components. The ifreviewed
validation current GHG concentrations
and models
sharing. were categorized
A structured remain
databased con-
gather- levels by enabling
significant
on environment number
for futureinformed
of models.
planningdecision-making.
and development. EPMs are especially
stant,
model
ing and the world system
objectives
sharing will experience
to contextualize
can contribute a the
few subsequent
centuries
to the enhanced ofanalysis
rising tempera-
and dis-
accuracy of crucial as significant investments
Country-specific trends in GHG in innovative
emissions energy
are also research
evolving. and
ture
cussion.
the and Model
EPMs, ocean
as well level 7,8
structures
as the . Therefore,
were then
effectiveness substantial
ofanalysed reductions
to investigate
the resulting in global
policies. planning aremiddle-income
Developing
their Collectively, required characteristics
country for decarbonization
and upper-income
12
. The
not addressed development
countries innowePMs emitof
GHG
relevance emissions are essential
and deficits for mitigating
in developing contexts. climateFor change.
the categoriza- more EPMsthan
Almost started in the
high-income
all EPMs were late 1950s andin
countries,
constructed early
and 1960s
this
developed has (ref.
been
13
countries ) but
the caseintensi-
(Table since3)
tionInbyaddition
Climate model toimpacts
changeobjective,the infrastructural
on energy
four categories elements
infrastructure
were used:of national
and
energy energy
systems.
infor- 2007. fied considered
and after the oiltheir
Emissions crisis
are energy of thesystems,
increasing 1970sat a in muchlightfaster
economic of the realization
rate
assumptions, in developing
andof the
the
systems
mation systems,
Depending (that is, generation,
on theenergy distribution,
demand–supply,
country-specific and transmission),
impactsenergy–economic
of climate changeand access effects
on economies
extent to of exogenous
which than GHG political
previously
emissions events
projected.
need on
to beglobal
EPMs
reduced. and
can national
play
While an
CO energy
2essen-
emis-
to grid emissions
energy electricity
systems and and
models. purchasing power
Table 2 illustrates
infrastructure, its degree of EPM
theof population
types, andinflu-
incorporation theirin tialsupply
sionsrole per. in
14
Itcapita
was necessary,
setting emerging
in high-income then, tocountries
economiescritically assess
onare the interrelation-
a low-carbon
decreasing pathway
(Fig. 1b),
ence
EPMs energy
inputs,can outputs,end-use
be varied. and If and GHG
underlying
the projected emissions.
methods. Figure
climateFive change 1a illustrates
characteristics
has a signifi- that ships
of while
they are between
enhancing
increasingtheaccess
sources
in the to of energyMost
energy.
developing supply and demand,
reviewed
upper-middle EPMs andas were wellini-
middle- as
both access
inputeffect
cant variables to electricity
on futurewereenergyanalysed:and per capita
qualitative,and
infrastructure CO emissions
quantitative,
2 systems, it should are more
financial, to
be tially identify
income intended pathways
countries, for their for
whose long-term
country
primary development
or regionobjective of origin of the energy
oftenin isthetodeveloped
improve sec-
significant in
aggregatedexplicitly,
modelled and high-income
disaggregated.
especially countries,
Although
for compared
land-based financial todata
variableslow-income
are typically
such and tor
as land
15
world.
access . The Their
to drive foruse
later
convenient global sustainability
in developing
forms of energy.countries in the 1990s
Despite — spurred
demonstrated
the fact that some theirin
middle-income
classed
use, developing
as ‘quantitative’
distributed energy basedcountries.
, generation, on thefood Most
extensive developed
use
production of and countries
variables particular
thesebioenergy. potential
EPMs have bybeen
for the Rio
informed widely Earth Summit
decision-making
adopted forinenergy
1992 and
on energysystem thesystems
1995 report
planning plan- in
can ensure
in different
In most 100%
models
cases, theaccess wastodeemed
itexplicit electricity,
modelling worthwhile which only
to include
of climate-change a fewthem develop-
impactsas a of ning.theHowever,
developing Intergovernmental
the identified
countries, they lackPanel on Climateinof
shortcomings
consideration Change
this Review(IPCC)
a substantial
16
suggest
num- —
ing countries
separaterequire
would can
characteristic.match. In 2010,
The underlying
further investigations annual per
onmethods capita CO emissions
were categorized
the interactions 2 between brought
that
ber of forward
theissues
formulation the issue
affectingofdeveloping of GHG
localized EPMs emissions
contexts; are essentialand
for example, their
not only impact
the for on
the
effects
ranged from 0.02–15.14
into accounting
related variables. framework, tCOregression,
2 in low and middle-income
optimization, economic, the
of aenvironment.
coun- countries lack concerned
of innovation, Asbut a result,
also
andforthe further
a low-carbon
varying models were
pathway
nature of developed
for the world.
privatization, for
tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental
there
Outlook is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact Received: and11itsJuly mitigation.
2016; Accepted: However, 22 given
January that some two-thirds of
2018;
emissions. One notable exception is
Distinct differences exist between the evolution of energy systemsCosta Rica, an upper middle- global
Published GHG emissions
online: 6 March come2018 from the electricity, heat, and trans-
income
inTable country,
developing and which
developedhad 98% access toaselectricity
countries, a response butto capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of
pervarying
1 | Searched keywords and associated groups references
CO 2 emissions
social, technical, of economic
1.7 tCO2, well and belowenvironmental the average of 2.09
stimuli. tCO2 for energy
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52 Nature eNergy
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©
© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
Nature. All
All rights
rights reserved.
reserved.
 rgy NaTurE
NaTurE ENErgy
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REPRINT GRAND ARticle
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© 2018
2018 Macmillan
Macmillan
© 2018 Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
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part of
of Springer
Limited,Limited, Springer Nature. All
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part rights
rights reserved.
All Springer
reserved. Nature. All rights reserved.
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86. The National
ronment. and Energy
Most structure
EPMs Modeling of System:
energy
originated Anplanning
in Overview 2009
developed models(EIA, 2009).and are primarily
countries EPMs
Energyhave and
aimed three
Climate common
at Policies
reducing Usingcomponents
Energy Systemsand
greenhouse aemissions
Models:
gas basic
Insightsworkflow:
fromwhile
We The UK 2050aCalculator
87. conducted systematic (DECC,
survey 2013); http://go.nature.com/2EvKxl9
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with increasing
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on
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Energy
models
weand reviewpredominantly
thirty-four
Environmental Planning
used
widely for the planning output
(2001).used EPMs to investigate
variables.
theirKey
and Environmental
variations,to
applicability
Management: History
however,
developing lie in countries
the type, resolution
and New Developments and find
http://doi.
of
89. energy
an absence systems
Schlenzig, of andplanning
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org/cj3s the spatial),
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Key deficiencies and output
from
as
theopposed
lack ofto
information operational.
deliberation
and decision support First,
of theasystem
preliminary
low energy
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Int. wasresulting
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lackCompleted
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2014); nature
supply.ofOther the data
ofhttp://go.nature.com/2rVCaN7 most often
inadequacies
to gather
include an 81–91
12,
Issuesthe overview
lack (1999).
of of the topics of
consideration related to EPMs that
socio-economic resultedsuch
nuances determine
as How
106. the
Buildchoice
the toprevalence a 2050 of estimation
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of corruption (DECC, orandprojection
2014).resulting methods.
cost inflation,
90. Vanidentification
in Den Broek, M., Van of Oostvoorn, F.,themes:
Van Harmelen, T. &demand
Van Arkel,and W. Primaryavailability
input variables in the studied EPMs are quantitative,
thethemethods for adequately two main addressing
The EC Energy and Environment Model EFOM-ENV Specified in GAMS the energy
shortcomings in data quality, and adequacy, and the effects of climate
supply,
change. and
(1992).Weenergyargue for information
further researchand emission models. Electronic
on characterization Competing
financial
and modelling of interests
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change impacts, models and and
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development
Assessment ofquantitative
The authors declare no competing
contextual data
EPMs. for calculation. Qualitative parameters
interests.
Xplore, Scopus,
of Global Web of Change
Environmental Science, withandIMAGE other 3.0: official websitesand
Model Description with are typically interpreted as ordinal data for modelling purposes.
energy databanks,
Policy Applicationsspecifically
(2014). United Nations (UN), World Bank, While additional modellinginformationenergy infrastructure in a holistic approach to

H
92. Kainuma, M.,
International Matsuoka,Fund
Monetary Y. & Morita, The AIM ⁄ ENDUSE
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Energy and cover
Reprintsaand broader
permissions context, the supply,
information is availabledemand and socio-economic
at www.nature.com/reprints.
Case Studies
uman in Japan have
activities (1999). led to rapid changes in atmospheric con- are concerned with increasing access
(IEA) and Energy
93. Sankovski, A., Barbour, Information
W. & Pepper,Administration
W. Quantification of(EIA) the1 IS99 — were sectors require
Correspondence and disaggregated
requests data
for materials fortoa be
should electricity,
better towhich
K.B.D. is consid-
interpretation
addressed of the
searched centrations
emissionforscenario
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(GHG)the
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emissions
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Publisher’s systems.
note: Springer
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Nature remains neutral
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ing
TableTechnol. toForecasting
1. The and amplifying
keywords were
Soc. Change global climate(2000).
categorized
63, 263–287 change 2
. Fossil fuels
into five-word and as
groups, reflected
In the maps
inpublished casebyand the
of inclusion
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(Table can 2). the countries
energysuch as China
market. and India11methods
Optimization . in such models would
result in substantial
In addition to the published GHG dischargesjournal articles
5
, withand a likely
books,global manuals mean of render Energy the planning
opportunity models
to test (EPMs)
different playpolicies
an essentialagainstrole theinleast-the
temperature
different models increase were between
investigated 2.0–4.9 to °C, with their
explore a median of 3.2and
structure °C cost development
option. of the energy
However, sector methods
simulation at global,were nationalalso and regional
utilized in a
by
key2100 (ref. 6). Even
components. The ifreviewed
current models
GHG concentrations
were categorized remainbasedcon- levels by enabling
on significant numberinformed of models.decision-making. EPMs are especially
stant,
modelthe world will
objectives experience a the
to contextualize few subsequent
centuries ofanalysis and dis- crucial as significant investments in innovative
rising tempera- energy research and
ture
cussion.and Model
ocean level 7,8
structures . Therefore,
were then substantial
analysedreductions
to investigate in global planning are country
their Developing required characteristics
for decarbonization 12
. The development
not addressed in ePMsof
GHG
relevanceemissions
and deficitsare essential for mitigating
in developing contexts. climate For change.
the categoriza- Almost EPMs started all EPMs in thewere late 1950s andin
constructed early 1960s (ref.
developed
13
countries ) but(Table
intensi- 3)
tionInbyaddition to the infrastructural
model objective, four categories elements
were used: of national
energyenergy infor- and fied considered
after the oiltheir crisis of thesystems,
energy 1970s in light of the
economic realizationand
assumptions, of the
the
systems
mation (that systems, is, generation, distribution, andenergy–economic
energy demand–supply, transmission), access and extent effects to ofwhich
exogenous GHG political
emissionsevents need to onbeglobal
reduced. andWhile national COenergy
2 emis-
to grid emissions
energy electricity models. and purchasing power of EPM
Table 2 illustrates the population
types, andinflu- their supplysions per. Itcapita
14
was necessary,
in high-income then, tocountries
criticallyare assess the interrelation-
decreasing (Fig. 1b),
ence
inputs, energy
outputs,end-use and and GHG emissions.
underlying methods.Figure 1a illustrates that
Five characteristics of ships
they are betweenincreasingthe sources
in theofdeveloping
energy supply and demand,
upper-middle andasmiddle-
well as
both access to electricity and per capita CO
input variables were analysed: qualitative, quantitative, financial, income 2 emissions are more to identify pathways for long-term development
countries, whose primary objective often is to improve of the energy sec-
significant
aggregated in and high-income
disaggregated. countries,
Although compared
financial todata
low-income
are typically and tor 15
access . The drive for global
to convenient forms sustainability
of energy. Despite in the 1990s the fact — spurred
that some in
middle-income
classed as ‘quantitative’ developing, basedcountries.
on the extensive Most use developed
of thesecountries
variables particular
EPMs havebybeen the Riowidely Earth Summit
adopted forinenergy
1992 and system the planning
1995 report in
can ensure models
in different 100% access it wastodeemed electricity, which only
worthwhile to includea fewthem develop-as a of the Intergovernmental
developing countries, they lack Panelconsideration
on Climate of Change (IPCC)num-
a substantial
16
—
ing countries can match. In 2010, annual
separate characteristic. The underlying methods were categorized per capita CO 2 emissions brought forward the issue of GHG emissions
ber of issues affecting developing contexts; for example, the effects and their impact on
ranged from 0.02–15.14
into accounting framework, tCOregression,
2 in low and middle-income
optimization, coun- the
economic, of aenvironment.
lack of innovation, As a result,and the further
varyingmodels nature were of developed
privatization, for
tries, compared to 1.6–42.63 tCO2 in high-income ones. In general, projecting climate change and investigating the environmental
there is a positive association between electricity access and GHG impact and its mitigation. However, given that some two-thirds of
emissions. One notable exception is Costa Rica, an upper middle- global GHG emissions come from the electricity, heat, and trans-
income country, which had 98% access to electricity but per capita portation sectors4, the integration of the environmental aspects of
Table 1 | Searched keywords and associated groups
CO2 emissions of 1.7 tCO2, well below the average of 2.09 tCO2 for energy demand and supply within EPMs became necessary, pro-
all low and middle-income countries
Model Objectivein 2010. This is becauseComponents 93.3% viding a comprehensive Origin ofpicture
development of the interrelationships
geographical applicability between
ofEnergy
Costa Rica’s energy was from
planning Forecasting
renewable resources, of Input which energy, environment,
variables
and climate change. Global
Organization
hydroelectric sources accounted for 75.8% (ref. 9). Over the past four decades, a substantial number of EPMs have
Energy information
As a result, future energy Projection planning objectives of developed Estimation methods
and been developed byCountry researchers and organizations Regional
in different coun-
Energy economic
developing countries are distinctly Demanddifferent.
and supply;Indemand; developedOutput coun-variablestries, with various objectives and scopes.Country EPMs range from the
tries, the focus today is on supply reducing emissions while enhancing holistic — modelling the partial or whole energy system of a coun-
energy security,
Energy supply andprimarily
demand characterized Economic by a shift from fossil fuels try, region or the world — to the more sectoral — providing projec-
towards more renewable resources.
Energy supply Emission However,
control developing countries tions of the energy needs of, for example, transportation or industry.
Energy demand
Emission
BRE reduction
Trust Centre for Sustainable Engineering, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK. *e-mail: DebnathK@cardiff.ac.uk

54 Nature eNergy
eNergy || VOL
VOL 3
3 || MARCH
MARCH 2018
2018 || 172–184
172–184 || www.nature.com/natureenergy
www.nature.com/natureenergy
172
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174 Nature
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Macmillan Publishers
Publishers Limited,
Limited, part
part of
of Springer
Springer Nature.
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