University of Southern California

Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO® III

17th Practical Software and Systems Measurement

(PSM)
USERS’ GROUP WORKSHOP
24 February 2016
 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

Topics
• What is COCOMO?
• Current effort/schedule estimation model
• Current quality estimation model
• COCOMO III project
• COCOMO III overview of model cost drivers

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 2

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO®
• COCOMO® (COnstructure COst MOdel) is the most widely
used software cost estimation model in the world
– Registered Trademark for intellectual property protection
– COCOMO 81 and COCOMO II models are open and free for
anyone to use
– Models have been commercialized
• It has been 16 years since the model has been updated
and calibrated to new Software Engineering data
– Some cost drivers (parameters) are no longer as relevant as
they were in 2000
– New cost drivers that influence effort have arisen
– Some of the cost driver rating scales have shifted because of
increasing software development capability over the years.

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 3

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

Purpose of Previous COCOMO Model

• To help people reason about the cost and schedule
implications of their software decisions
– Software investment decisions
• When to develop, reuse, or purchase
• What legacy software to modify or phase out
– Setting project budgets and schedules
– Negotiating cost/schedule/performance tradeoffs
– Making software risk management decisions
– Making software improvement decisions
• Reuse, tools, process maturity, outsourcing
• Model versions supported
– Early design
– Post-architecture

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 4

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO Model
Software
development and
Software product size maintenance
estimate estimates for:
• Effort
Software product, • Cost
platform, personal & • Schedule
project attributes • Distributed by:
COCOMO o Phase
Software reuse, o Activity
maintenance, and
o Increment
increment parameters

Software Project data Local calibration to

organization’s data

COCOMO is an open and free model

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 5

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO II Model Phases

LCO LCA IOC

I L L I P
R C C O R
R O A C R

MBASE/RUP Inception Elaboration Construction Transition

Waterfall Plans and Preliminary Detailed Code and Integration

Requirements (Product) Design Design Unit Test and Test

L S P C U S
C R D D T A
R R R R C R

Most likely
Early Design Model Post-Architecture Model
model to use:

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 6

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

Incremental Estimation
S Product P Detailed C Code & U Integration S
Overall Product R Design D D T A
Design Unit Test & Test
Schedule R (PD) R (DD) R (CUT) C (IT) R
R
L L I
C Elaboration C Construction O
(MBASE/RUP) C
O A

S P C U S Experimental
R D D T A Use
Increment 1 R R R C R

S P C U S Experimental
R D D T A Use
Increment 2 R R R C R

S P C U I
R D D T O
R R R C C
Increment 3

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 7

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

Historical Overview of COCOMO Suite of Models

Software Cost Models
DBA COCOMO
2004 COCOTS COSYSMO
COCOMO 81 COCOMO II 2000 2005
1981 2000
COINCOMO
2004,2012 COSYSMO-SoS
2007

iDAVE COPLIMO COPSEMO COSECMO

COQUALMO
2004 2003 1998 2008
1998

AGILE C II COTIPMO COPROMO CORADMO

2003 2011 1998 1999,2012
Software Extensions
Legend:
Model has been calibrated with historical project data and expert (Delphi) data
Model is derived from COCOMO II
Model has been calibrated with expert (Delphi) data

24 February 2016
Dates indicate the time that the first paper was published for the model
17th PSM User's Group Workshop 8
 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering COQUALMO
Defect Introduction pipes Residual
Software
Defects
Code Defects •••

Design Defects

Requirements Defects

Defect removal profiles:

• Automation
Defect Removal pipes
• Reviews
• Testing

COQUALMO
Number of est. non-trivial defects
COCOMO II Cost Drivers Defect for Requirements, Design, &
Introduction Code
(Size, Product, Platform,
Model
Personnel, & Project attributes)
Number of est. residual defects
Defect removal profile levels Defect and the residual defect density
Removal
Model
24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 9
 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

Commercialization – USC COCOMO vs. SystemStar

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 10

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO III Project Purpose

• Broaden audiences of COCOMO® and address scope of
modern projects: mobile devices, web/internet, big data,
cloud-targeted, and multi-tenant software
• Modernize model size inputs
• Consider the impact of modern development processes
(e.g. Agile)
• Improve the accuracy and realism of estimates
– Improve driver definitions
– New and updated software cost drivers and adjust their ratings
as needed
– Quality estimation capability
– Point and range estimates based on risk
• Improve value of COCOMO® in decision-making

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 11

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO III Project Scope

• COCOMO® III will product estimates for:
– Effort, Schedule, Cost, Defects
• COCOMO® III can be applied at various moments in a
project’s lifecycle:
– Early Estimation, Post-Architecture Estimation, Project Re-
estimation
• COCOMO® III’s functional vision
– Single and Multiple component estimate
– Analysis of alternatives
– Analysis with Size-Effort-Schedule as independent variables
– Support for different lifecycle processes
– Lifecycle cost estimation
– Legacy system transformation
– Include technical debt and its effects on effort and schedule
24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 12
 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO III Size Inputs

• Intent is to produce an estimation model that takes different
software size inputs directly
– Current software size other than source lines of code (SLOC)
is first converted to SLOC and use as “equivalent” size in the
model
– Dependent on the data collected for calibration

• Software Requirements • Feature Points

• Function Point • Use Case Points
• SNAP Points • Story Points (Agile
• Fast Function Points Development)
• COSMIC Points
• Object / Application Points

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 13

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO III Cost Drivers -1

• Product Attributes
– Impact of Software Failure (FAIL) (Formerly RELY)
– Product Complexity (CPLX)
– Developed for Reusability (RUSE)
– Required Software Security (SECU)
– Dropped:
• Documentation Match to Lifecycle Needs
• Database Size
• Platform Attributes
– Platform Constraints (PLAT)
• Combined Execution and Storage Constraints
– Platform Volatility (PVOL)

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 14

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO III Cost Drivers -2

• Personnel Attributes
– Analyst Capability (ACAP)
– Programmer Capability (PCAP)
– Personnel Continuity (PCON)
– Applications Experience (APEX)
– Language and Tool Experience (LTEX)
– Platform Experience (PLEX)

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 15

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO III Cost Drivers -3

• Project Attributes
– Precedentedness (PREC)
– Development Flexibility (FLEX)
– Opportunity and Risk Resolution (RESL)
– Stakeholder Team Cohesion (TEAM)
– Process Capability & Usage (PCUS) (Formerly PMAT)
– Use of Software Tools (TOOL)
– Multisite Development (SITE)

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 16

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

COCOMO® Model Websites

cocomomodels.com
cocomomodels.info
cocomofamily.com cosysmo.com
cocomofamily.info (future)

cocomo81.com cocomo2.com cocomo3.com

cocomo81.info cocomo2.info cocomo3.info

24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 17

 University of Southern California
Center for Systems and Software Engineering

Invitation to Participate
• CSSE invites you to collaborate on model development
– Review model formulation
– Submit data for model calibration
• Actual Size
• Effort
• Schedule
• Defects
• Model Parameters
– Review of COCOMO III model
– If you contribute data for model calibration, you will receive:
• An advanced copy of the new model
• Comparison of your data with respect to other data points
used to calibrate the model
• Please talk with me afterwards if you are interested
24 February 2016 17th PSM User's Group Workshop 18