Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 24

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999987
R Square 0.999974
Adjusted R Sq0.944417 f tab
Standard Erro0.121897 2.168252
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 10203.18 5101.592 343334.3 7.02E-40
Residual 18 0.267461 0.014859
Total 20 10203.45

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0 #NV #NV #NV #NV #NV #NV #NV
ln L 0.237017 0.214378 1.105603 0.283457 -0.21337 0.687409 -0.21337 0.687409
LN k 0.939391 0.122743 7.653307 4.58E-07 0.681517 1.197265 0.681517 1.197265

t tab
1.729133
.0%
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999986
R Square 0.999972
Adjusted R Sq0.94734
Standard Err0.122609
Observation 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 10203.17 10203.17 678724.3 1.2E-42
Residual 19 0.285624 0.015033
Total 20 10203.45

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0 #NV #NV #NV #NV #NV #NV #NV
LN k 1.075089 0.001305 823.8472 1.01E-44 1.072357 1.07782 1.072357 1.07782
95.0%
Se da urmatorul set de date ce reprezinta pib-ul,factorul munca
perioada pib L k ln pib ln L LN k ln²L lnL*lnK
1996 3.57E+09 148398 8.77E+08 21.99591 11.90765 20.59239 141.7922 245.207
1997 3.71E+09 150191 8.48E+08 22.03305 11.91966 20.55861 142.0784 245.0516
1998 3.92E+09 152133 9.45E+08 22.09029 11.93251 20.66713 142.3848 246.6107
1999 4.13E+09 154199 9.09E+08 22.14089 11.946 20.6278 142.7069 246.4197
2000 4.31E+09 156207 9.69E+08 22.18332 11.95894 20.69141 143.0162 247.4473
2001 4.33E+09 159652 8.83E+08 22.18927 11.98075 20.59932 143.5384 246.7954
2002 4.69E+09 160263 7.72E+08 22.26866 11.98457 20.46514 143.63 245.2659
2003 5.46E+09 161289 1.13E+09 22.42009 11.99095 20.84897 143.783 249.999
2004 6.06E+09 158414 1.25E+09 22.52543 11.97297 20.94551 143.3519 250.7799
2005 6.39E+09 160698 1.41E+09 22.57876 11.98728 21.06466 143.6949 252.5081
2006 6.76E+09 163152 1.48E+09 22.63386 12.00244 21.11826 144.0585 253.4706
2007 7.88E+09 167278 1.76E+09 22.78766 12.02741 21.2904 144.6586 256.0684
2008 8.98E+09 169639 1.76E+09 22.91795 12.04143 21.28987 144.996 256.3604
2009 8.53E+09 172243 1.55E+09 22.86664 12.05666 21.16072 145.3631 255.1277
2010 8.74E+09 176153 1.87E+09 22.8913 12.07911 21.34903 145.9049 257.8772
2011 9.5E+09 180373 1.71E+09 22.97506 12.10278 21.25889 146.4773 257.2917
2012 9.2E+09 184629 1.67E+09 22.94287 12.1261 21.23675 147.0424 257.519
2013 1.01E+10 190846 1.77E+09 23.04034 12.15922 21.29607 147.8467 258.9437
2014 1.12E+10 196191 1.96E+09 23.14077 12.18684 21.39438 148.5192 260.7299
2015 1.03E+10 200322 2.58E+09 23.05401 12.20768 21.67198 149.0275 264.5646

Total 451.6761 240.571 420.1273 2893.871 5054.038


nca si capitalul fix din perioada 1996-2005 ale Maltei:
LN L*ln Y ln²k lnK*lnY lnŷ lny-lnŷ (lny-lnŷ)² lny-lnȳ (lny-lnȳ)²
261.9196 424.0463 452.9482 22.21468 -0.21877 0.047861 -0.58409 0.341164
262.6265 422.6562 452.9688 22.18581 -0.15276 0.023335 -0.54695 0.299155
263.5926 427.1302 456.5427 22.2909 -0.20062 0.040247 -0.48971 0.239821
264.4951 425.5063 456.718 22.25718 -0.11628 0.013522 -0.43911 0.192815
265.2889 428.1344 459.0042 22.32007 -0.13675 0.018701 -0.39668 0.157355
265.8441 424.3321 457.0838 22.23874 -0.04948 0.002448 -0.39073 0.152674
266.8804 418.8219 455.7313 22.11353 0.155134 0.024067 -0.31134 0.096931
268.8382 434.6796 467.4358 22.47586 -0.05577 0.003111 -0.15991 0.025572
269.6963 438.7145 471.8068 22.56229 -0.03686 0.001359 -0.05457 0.002977
270.658 443.7201 475.614 22.67773 -0.09897 0.009796 -0.00124 1.54E-06
271.6615 445.9811 477.9879 22.73175 -0.09789 0.009583 0.053863 0.002901
274.0766 453.2812 485.1584 22.89956 -0.1119 0.012521 0.207658 0.043122
275.9648 453.2584 487.9201 22.90242 0.01553 0.000241 0.337948 0.114209
275.6954 447.7762 483.8747 22.78468 0.081966 0.006718 0.286644 0.082165
276.5065 455.781 488.7069 22.96707 -0.07577 0.005742 0.311297 0.096906
278.0622 451.9404 488.4243 22.88802 0.087039 0.007576 0.395063 0.156074
278.2077 450.9995 487.2321 22.87281 0.070065 0.004909 0.362875 0.131678
280.1526 453.5228 490.6688 22.93652 0.103816 0.010778 0.46034 0.211913
282.0129 457.7193 495.0822 23.03556 0.105211 0.011069 0.560766 0.314458
281.436 469.6746 499.6259 23.3015 -0.2475 0.061255 0.474006 0.224681

5433.616 8827.676 9490.535 0.314838 2.886573


SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.925289
R Square 0.85616
Adjusted R Sq0.848169
Standard Erro63.04313
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 425816.4 425816.4 107.1388 5.24E-09
Residual 18 71539.86 3974.437
Total 19 497356.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -614.205 139.2358 -4.41126 0.000337 -906.728 -321.681 -906.728 -321.681
lnx=z 254.33 24.57108 10.35079 5.24E-09 202.7081 305.952 202.7081 305.952

t tab
1.729133
.0%
Se dau urmatoarele date ce reprezinta pib-ul si exportul din perioada 2010-2014 din Muntenegru:
Perioade Pib=y Export=x lnx=z z*y z² y² ŷ y-ŷ
2010Q1 626.20 111.60 4.71 2952.48 22.23 392126.44 584.95 41.25
2010Q2 725.60 239.70 5.48 3975.84 30.02 526495.36 779.37 -53.77
2010Q3 963.40 612.00 6.42 6181.88 41.17 928139.56 1017.77 -54.37
2010Q4 810.00 194.40 5.27 4268.63 27.77 656100.00 726.10 83.90
2011Q1 624.40 177.60 5.18 3234.10 26.83 389875.36 703.11 -78.71
2011Q2 773.50 272.70 5.61 4338.08 31.45 598302.25 812.18 -38.68
2011Q3 1056.80 708.50 6.56 6935.94 43.07 1116826.24 1055.01 1.79
2011Q4 810.10 223.70 5.41 4382.89 29.27 656262.01 761.80 48.30
2012Q1 601.40 172.50 5.15 3097.45 26.53 361681.96 695.70 -94.30
2012Q2 755.60 292.40 5.68 4290.39 32.24 570931.36 829.92 -74.32
2012Q3 1035.80 711.30 6.57 6802.20 43.13 1072881.64 1056.01 -20.21
2012Q4 788.70 213.30 5.36 4229.56 28.76 622047.69 749.70 39.00
2013Q1 637.80 163.80 5.10 3251.92 26.00 406788.84 682.54 -44.74
2013Q2 788.10 298.10 5.70 4490.14 32.46 621101.61 834.83 -46.73
2013Q3 1101.90 724.10 6.58 7255.93 43.36 1214183.61 1060.55 41.35
2013Q4 834.70 204.10 5.32 4439.44 28.29 696724.09 738.48 96.22
2014Q1 663.60 150.20 5.01 3325.94 25.12 440364.96 660.49 3.11
2014Q2 800.40 278.00 5.63 4504.35 31.67 640640.16 817.07 -16.67
2014Q3 1125.00 736.50 6.60 7427.15 43.59 1265625.00 1064.86 60.14
2014Q4 868.80 223.40 5.41 4699.31 29.26 754813.44 761.46 107.34

Total 16391.80 6707.90 112.75 94083.62 642.22 13931911.58


gru:
(y-ŷ)²
1701.903
2891.513
2955.827
7039.509
6195.396
1495.935
3.218599
2332.591
8892.59
5523.01
408.4073
1521.359
2001.55
2183.424
1710.226
9257.884
9.648757
277.9849
3616.389
11521.49

71539.86
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.994842
R Square 0.98971
Adjusted R S0.986035
Standard Err19.11963
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 492238.4 98447.67 269.3063 2.15E-13
Residual 14 5117.844 365.5603
Total 19 497356.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 105.457 43.96481 2.398668 0.030948 11.16183 199.7521 11.16183
Export=x1 81.52972 89.56176 0.910318 0.378061 -110.561 273.6206 -110.561
Import=x2 -81.4749 89.52088 -0.91012 0.378162 -273.478 110.5283 -273.478
Consum=x30.978128 0.08641 11.31962 1.97E-08 0.792797 1.163459 0.792797
Balanta externa=x
-80.8348 89.57118 -0.90246 0.382075 -272.946 111.2763 -272.946
Capital fix=x -0.02901 0.326692 -0.08879 0.930509 -0.72969 0.671679 -0.72969
Upper 95.0%
199.7521
273.6206
110.5283
1.163459
111.2763
0.671679
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.986836
R Square 0.973846
Adjusted R S0.970769
Standard Err27.66178
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 484348.3 242174.1 316.4955 3.54E-14
Residual 17 13007.96 765.174
Total 19 497356.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 59.03501 60.52225 0.975427 0.343026 -68.6558 186.7258 -68.6558
Export=x1 0.593466 0.030023 19.76723 3.62E-13 0.530124 0.656809 0.530124
Consum=x30.671445 0.074643 8.995467 7.14E-08 0.513963 0.828927 0.513963
Upper 95.0%
186.7258
0.656809
0.828927
Se dau datele pentru Muntenegru:
Perioade Pib=y Export=x1 Consum=x3 Import=x2 Balanta externa=x4 Capital fix=x5
2010Q1 626.2 111.6 669.9 379.5 -267.9 122.3
2010Q2 725.6 239.7 793.8 522.8 -283.2 203.4
2010Q3 963.4 612 836.4 553.0 59.0 179.1
2010Q4 810 194.4 947.5 505.2 -310.8 171.6
2011Q1 624.4 177.6 696.1 411.0 -233.4 125.3
2011Q2 773.5 272.7 858.6 552.6 -279.8 192.2
2011Q3 1056.8 708.5 873.3 600.6 107.9 156.5
2011Q4 810.1 223.7 922.8 535.4 -311.6 163.0
2012Q1 601.4 172.5 697.7 462.4 -289.9 136.8
2012Q2 755.6 292.4 843.9 572.7 -280.3 181.2
2012Q3 1035.8 711.3 847.9 591.4 119.9 155.9
2012Q4 788.7 213.3 914.1 539.9 -326.6 154.4
2013Q1 637.8 163.8 721.3 415.2 -251.4 148.0
2013Q2 788.1 298.1 858.9 560.1 -262.0 194.5
2013Q3 1101.9 724.1 874.5 574.4 149.7 164.7
2013Q4 834.7 204.1 923.9 515.8 -311.8 170.9
2014Q1 663.6 150.2 724.8 396.1 -245.9 137.4
2014Q2 800.4 278 882.2 561.9 -283.8 191.9
2014Q3 1125 736.5 878.7 583.8 152.7 154.0
2014Q4 868.8 223.4 959.1 532.5 -309.1 173.8

Total 16391.8 6707.9 16,725.4


SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.994842
R Square 0.98971
Adjusted R S0.986035
Standard Err19.11963
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 492238.4 98447.67 269.3063 2.15E-13
Residual 14 5117.844 365.5603
Total 19 497356.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 105.457 43.96481 2.398668 0.030948 11.16183 199.7521 11.16183
Export=x1 81.52972 89.56176 0.910318 0.378061 -110.561 273.6206 -110.561
Import=x2 -81.4749 89.52088 -0.91012 0.378162 -273.478 110.5283 -273.478
Consum=x30.978128 0.08641 11.31962 1.97E-08 0.792797 1.163459 0.792797
Balanta externa=x
-80.8348 89.57118 -0.90246 0.382075 -272.946 111.2763 -272.946
Capital fix=x -0.02901 0.326692 -0.08879 0.930509 -0.72969 0.671679 -0.72969
Upper 95.0%
199.7521
273.6206
110.5283
1.163459
111.2763
0.671679
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.986836
R Square 0.973846
Adjusted R S0.970769
Standard Err27.66178
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 484348.3 242174.1 316.4955 3.54E-14
Residual 17 13007.96 765.174
Total 19 497356.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 59.03501 60.52225 0.975427 0.343026 -68.6558 186.7258 -68.6558
Export=x1 0.593466 0.030023 19.76723 3.62E-13 0.530124 0.656809 0.530124
Consum=x30.671445 0.074643 8.995467 7.14E-08 0.513963 0.828927 0.513963
Upper 95.0%
186.7258
0.656809
0.828927
Perioade Pib=y Export=x1 Consum=x3 Import=x2 Balanta externa=x4 Capital fix=x5
2010Q1 626.2 111.6 669.9 379.5 -267.9 122.3
2010Q2 725.6 239.7 793.8 522.8 -283.2 203.4
2010Q3 963.4 612 836.4 553.0 59.0 179.1
2010Q4 810 194.4 947.5 505.2 -310.8 171.6
2011Q1 624.4 177.6 696.1 411.0 -233.4 125.3
2011Q2 773.5 272.7 858.6 552.6 -279.8 192.2
2011Q3 1056.8 708.5 873.3 600.6 107.9 156.5
2011Q4 810.1 223.7 922.8 535.4 -311.6 163.0
2012Q1 601.4 172.5 697.7 462.4 -289.9 136.8
2012Q2 755.6 292.4 843.9 572.7 -280.3 181.2
2012Q3 1035.8 711.3 847.9 591.4 119.9 155.9
2012Q4 788.7 213.3 914.1 539.9 -326.6 154.4
2013Q1 637.8 163.8 721.3 415.2 -251.4 148.0
2013Q2 788.1 298.1 858.9 560.1 -262.0 194.5
2013Q3 1101.9 724.1 874.5 574.4 149.7 164.7
2013Q4 834.7 204.1 923.9 515.8 -311.8 170.9
2014Q1 663.6 150.2 724.8 396.1 -245.9 137.4
2014Q2 800.4 278 882.2 561.9 -283.8 191.9
2014Q3 1125 736.5 878.7 583.8 152.7 154.0
2014Q4 868.8 223.4 959.1 532.5 -309.1 173.8

Total 16391.8 6707.9 16,725.4


SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.921604
R Square 0.849354
Adjusted R S0.840985
Standard Err64.51728
Observations 20 f tab
2.168252
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 422431.6 422431.6 101.4856 7.97E-09
Residual 18 74924.63 4162.479
Total 19 497356.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 593.6582 26.66653 22.2623 1.5E-14 537.6339 649.6825 537.6339
Export=x 0.673629 0.066868 10.074 7.97E-09 0.533145 0.814114 0.533145

t tab
1.729133
Upper 95.0%
649.6825
0.814114
Se dau urmatoarele date ce reprezinta pib-ul si exportul din perioada 2010-2
Perioade Pib=y Export=x x*y x² y² ŷ y-ŷ
2010Q1 626.20 111.60 69883.92 12454.56 392126.44 668.43 -42.23
2010Q2 725.60 239.70 173926.32 57456.09 526495.36 754.26 -28.66
2010Q3 963.40 612.00 589600.80 374544.00 928139.56 1003.70 -40.30
2010Q4 810.00 194.40 157464.00 37791.36 656100.00 723.91 86.09
2011Q1 624.40 177.60 110893.44 31541.76 389875.36 712.65 -88.25
2011Q2 773.50 272.70 210933.45 74365.29 598302.25 776.37 -2.87
2011Q3 1056.80 708.50 748742.80 501972.25 1116826.24 1068.36 -11.56
2011Q4 810.10 223.70 181219.37 50041.69 656262.01 743.54 66.56
2012Q1 601.40 172.50 103741.50 29756.25 361681.96 709.24 -107.84
2012Q2 755.60 292.40 220937.44 85497.76 570931.36 789.57 -33.97
2012Q3 1035.80 711.30 736764.54 505947.69 1072881.64 1070.23 -34.43
2012Q4 788.70 213.30 168229.71 45496.89 622047.69 736.57 52.13
2013Q1 637.80 163.80 104471.64 26830.44 406788.84 703.41 -65.61
2013Q2 788.10 298.10 234932.61 88863.61 621101.61 793.39 -5.29
2013Q3 1101.90 724.10 797885.79 524320.81 1214183.61 1078.81 23.09
2013Q4 834.70 204.10 170362.27 41656.81 696724.09 730.41 104.29
2014Q1 663.60 150.20 99672.72 22560.04 440364.96 694.29 -30.69
2014Q2 800.40 278.00 222511.20 77284.00 640640.16 779.92 20.48
2014Q3 1125.00 736.50 828562.50 542432.25 1265625.00 1087.12 37.89
2014Q4 868.80 223.40 194089.92 49907.56 754813.44 743.34 125.46

Total 16391.80 6707.90 6124825.94 3180721.11 13931911.58


2010-2014 din Muntenegru:
(y-ŷ)² ȳ y-ȳ (y-ȳ)²
1783.542 819.59 -193.39 37399.6921
821.3383 819.59 -93.99 8834.1201
1624.09 819.59 143.81 20681.3161
7411.832 819.59 -9.59 91.9681
7788.416 819.59 -195.19 38099.1361
8.231161 819.59 -46.09 2124.2881
133.518 819.59 237.21 56268.5841
4430.367 819.59 -9.49 90.0601
11628.39 819.59 -218.19 47606.8761
1153.825 819.59 -63.99 4094.7201
1185.494 819.59 216.21 46746.7641
2717.433 819.59 -30.89 954.1921
4304.147 819.59 -181.79 33047.6041
27.95237 819.59 -31.49 991.6201
533.2866 819.59 282.31 79698.9361
10877.03 819.59 15.11 228.3121
942.1216 819.59 -155.99 24332.8801
419.4304 819.59 -19.19 368.2561
1435.273 819.59 305.41 93275.2681
15740.71 819.59 49.21 2421.6241

74966.43 497356.218