Vanichie Yaffa M.

Dagala 4/22/19
BSES 1A

Supercomputing the Climate

Throughout history, numerous techniques and experiments were performed by

meteorologists to predict the weather with greater efficacy over time. Due to
substantial advances in technology, it is now possible to forecast the weather days
and even months in advance—which was not truly possible before the mid-20th
century. The use of computer models became widespread mainly throughout the
1960s, as the first weather satellites were launched. The types of computer models
that are used in forecasts depend mostly on the type of climate and weather
conditions.
Goddard Space Flight Center is the home of a state-of-the-art supercomputing
facility called the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) that is capable of
running highly complex models to help scientists better understand Earth's climate.
The short video introduces the NCCS and takes you behind-the-scenes into the
fascinating field of climate modeling. Using supercomputers to process data from
satellite observations, these models are used to predict weather and give a picture of
how the Earth's systems and climate are changing.
NASA climate simulations use and produce vast amounts of data. "The unique
thing about NASA is that we are the source of most of the research satellite
observational data of the atmosphere, land, and ocean," Webster said. Data
assimilation and other techniques create the right starting conditions for simulating
physical processes around the Earth. In predicting future conditions, climate models
generate data much like the observations: temperature, humidity, wind speed and
direction, precipitation, and other values. Data processing requirements can be
considerable.
When you are forecasting you need look at a lot of data and determine what is
going on to determine what is going to happen next. If humans did all the interpolating
themselves for all the data they would never be able to issue the forecast in the time
that is expected. Furthermore, now that we have very complicated values to analyze
there is no way that a human can calculate the effect of all the various factors in play.
A computer has to do it. Computers are also required for using weather radar, and yes
to a lesser extent satellite data.
Computers are used for interpolating data, and analyzing very complicated
data. In forecasting we need to look at a lot of climate variables (temperature, dew
point, pressure and wind speed to name a few). We only collect this data from climate
observation sites which can be tens to hundreds of kilometers apart. In order to
determine these values at locations between the observation sites we interpolate.
 Supercomputers allow scientists to vigorously test climate models to ensure
accuracy before applying them to predict future trends. Climate models are first tested
using a process called hindcasting, where the models are asked to simulate historical
conditions and then those results are compared to actual observations. If the models
are able to correctly simulate past conditions, then scientists can have confidence that
their models will be able to accurately predict the future.