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Outline of the Presentation
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Underdevelopment as Coordination Failure
• Principal-agent” model
– The success or failure of economic development policies can be
explained by the “principal-agent” model.
• Underdevelopment trap
– A region remains stuck in substance agriculture
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Underdevelopment as Coordination Failure
• Principal:
– Government
• Agents:
– Households
– Private-sector firms
– Public agencies
– Government-owned enterprises
– International companies
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Underdevelopment as Coordination Failure
• An effective principal
– It is needed to coordinate actions taken by agents and
achieve an optimal outcome, making all agents better-off.
• Coordination failure
– It occurs when the principal fails to induce agents to
coordinate their actions, which leads to an outcome that
makes all agents worse-off.
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Models of Coordination Failure
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Technological Transfer for Modernization
• Multiple Equilibria
– The model is explained by the privately rational decision
function, an S-shaped curve. The intersection of this curve
with the 45º line is the point of equilibrium (A stable
equilibrium)
• At equilibrium,
– The expected outcome of an action equals its actual outcome
– Expected outcome = Actual outcome
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Multiple Equilibria: Graphical Illustration
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Technological Transfer for Modernization
• Stable equilibrium:
– The S-shaped function crosses the 45º line from above (points D1
and D3).
– Here firms adjust their investment decisions in coordination with
average investment in the industry.
• Unstable equilibrium:
– The S-shaped function crosses the 45º line from below (point D2).
– As firms coordinate their investment decisions, equilibrium moves
to D1 (decrease investment) or D3 (increase investment).
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Technological Transfer for Modernization
• Public policy
– Creating incentives for investment is the key for successful
coordination.
– The government must establish inclusive incentives to encourage
business investment.
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The Big Push: Coordination Failure
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The Big Push to Industrialization
• Paul Rosenstein-Rodan
• A big push to industrialization requires a set of leading
firms to investment in productive activities and transfer
of modern technology
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The Big Push to Industrialization
Assumptions:
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The Big Push: Graphical Illustration
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The Big Push: Coordination Failure
• Intertemporal effects:
– Investment in the modern sector becomes
profitable over-time as the market size
increases
• Urbanization effects:
– Demand for manufactured goods increases
with urban population growth
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Conditions Making The Big Push
Necessary
• Infrastructural effects:
– Improvement in transportation,
communication, and distribution systems
reduces the cost of investment
• Training effects:
– The labor force becomes more productive
and skilled with education
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Coordination Problem Cannot Be Solved by
a Super-Entrepreneur
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Further Problems of Multiple Equilibria
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Further Problems of
Multiple Equilibria
• Inefficient advantages of incumbency:
existing firm have lower production cost
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The O-Ring Theory of
Economic Development
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