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March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
March 6, 2019
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450
2018/19
400
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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interrupted in 70
2018/19. 60
50
40
This will have major
30
repercussions on
20
worldwide
10
- soybean crushings
0
- and on availability 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17
of soya oil and meal 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19F
October/Septem ber
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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Global Outlook: Soybeans - > Bearish, but soya oil - > bullish
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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950
900
850
May18 Jly Sep Nov Ja19
D aily futures from 15 M ay 2018 until 28 Feb 2 019
March 6, 2019
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Global Outlook: Soybeans - > Bearish, but soya oil - > bullish
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 15
700
Sun oil
600
Palm oil, crude
500
400
Ja18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja19 Feb
Daily prices from 1 Jan 2018 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019
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0
01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20F
March 6, 2019
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7
March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 19
Global Outlook: Soybeans - > Bearish, but soya oil - > bullish
March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 20
6.0 Mn (8.6%)
2.4 Mn (3.4%)
March 6, 2019
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Biodiesel
Biodiesel production almost trebled in the past 11 years.
Will be record high again in 2019 - - at least in Jan/June.
But the growth is set to slow from 2020 onward.
Driven by Indonesia,
probably 18.3 Mn T of palm oil to be used in Jan/Dec 2019
March 6, 2019
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800
700
600
500
400
Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
300
ICE Gas Oil (Spot)
200
Ja17 Apr Jly Oct Ja18 Apr Jly Sep Ja19
Weekly prices from January 2017 until 28 Febr 2019
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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Up almost 180%
World Production of 17 Oils & Fats
2018/19F - - 234.6 Mn T 1992/93 - - 84.6 Mn T
in past 26 years
Palm Oil 15,9%
Average annual
increase Rape Oil 10,7% Soya Oil 20,3%
Palm Oil 31,9% Soya Oil 23,9%
of 5.7 Mn T
Sun Oil 9,1%
Rape Oil 11,1%
PKO&CNO 5,5%
Palm oil Others/An.Fats 38,6%
Others/An.Fats 19,9%
account Sun Oil 8,5%
for 40% of
PKO&CNO 4,7%
the increase
Palm oil output forecast at 74.9 Mn T
in Oct/Sept 2018/19.
Only accounting for 6% of the area.
March 6, 2019
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60
40
20
March 6, 2019
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1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2010 2014 2018
From Jan/Dec 1970 until 2018
March 6, 2019
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Big Challenges Ahead for Palm Oil M AL AYS IA: A nn u al P alm O il Yield s (T/ ha)
4 ,8
4 ,6
T /ha
4 ,4
4 ,2
4
3 ,8
3 ,6
3 ,4
3 ,2
3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
In Malaysia the deteriorating age structure of the oil palms is one major
reason for the decline in the yields per hectare. Currently, 1.1-1.2 Mn ha
or about 20% of the oil palms in Malaysia are 20 years or older.
Malaysia: Oil Palm planted by category ( Mn ha )
Total Area in 2018: 5.85 and in 2001: 3.5 Mn ha
2018
2001
Felda 12%
Felcra, Risda, St. Ag. 13%
Felda 18%
Smallholders 10%
Smallholders 17%
March 6, 2019
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1000
From now on annual replanting
800
will have to be boosted
every year to 600
0
0-2years 3-5y 6-10y 11-15y 16-20y 21-25y over 25y
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils.
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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PALM OIL Outlook: PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a)
Slow down of the Annual Change (Mn T)
8
production growth in 7
Indonesia to 1.5-2.0 Mn 6 Production Supplies (a)
5
T in 2019 from 4.2 Mn T 4
growth in 2018. 3
2
1
0
Malaysian production -1
set to rise by 0.6 Mn T -2
-3
in 2019 to about 20.1 -4 (a) Opening stocks + production
Mn T (after a drop of -5
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
0.4 Mn T last year).
October/September
March 6, 2019
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PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a) World output to rise by
Annual Change (Mn T) 3.1-3.4 Mn T in
8
Production Supplies (a) Oct/Sept2018/19.
7
6 Consumption
5 World consumption is
4
3 forecast to increase by
2
1 6.2-6.5 Mn T in 2018/19.
0
-1
-2 Consumption growth to
-3 exceed the forecast
-4 (a) Opening stocks + production
-5 production growth.
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
October/September Palm oil stocks peaked in
Dec 2018.
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils
Price Outlook
March 6, 2019
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400
Upward potential of prices Oct18 Nov Dec Jan19 Feb
to 580-600 in next 6 months Daily prices from 1 Oct 2018 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019
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2300
Swing factors to watch:
2200
- Actual palm oil output
- Import purchases 2100
- US – China Trade war 2000
- Energy demand (key Indonesia)
- Crude mineral oil prices 1900
Ja18 Mar May Jly Sep Dec Ja19
- Weather Prices from Jan 2018 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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Lauric oil prices are close Daily Prices of 3 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
to their bottom. 1700 Coconut oil,Phil/Indo,cif Rott
1600 Palmkern oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rott.
Swing factors to watch: 1500 Palm oil crude, cif N.W. Eur
- weather /typhons 1400
- biological yield cycle 1300
1200
- response food industry - 1100
biodiesel Philippines 1000
- Market sentiment 900
800
In Rott the lows near term: 700
PKO $ 600 and CNO 640, 600
followed by recovery 500
400
Sep Oct Nov DecJa18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja19 Feb
CNO premium to widen Daily prices from 1 Sept 2017 until 28 Feb 2019
next 12 months
March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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March 6, 2019
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Growth in World Palm Oil Output will slow down in years ahead
World palm oil production growth is set
MALAYSIA: A nnual Palm Oil Yields (T/ ha) to slow down to +2.0 Mn T per annum in
4,8
2018-2025,
4,6
T/ha
4,4
and to +1.7 Mn T per annum in 2025-2030
4,2
4
compared to a growth of
3,8
+3.0 Mn T p.a. 2005-2018
3,6
3,4
3,2
World production only 95 Mn T in 2030
3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Effects on prices. And on consumption
March 6, 2019
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The acreage growth from OIL PALMS and 3 OILSEEDS: World Area (Mn ha)
2018 until 2030 is forecast in 140
Oil Palm Mature Area
Mn ha: 120 Soybeans
100 Rapeseed & Canola
Palm oil: + 5 (total area 25.5)
Sunflowerseed
80
Soybeans: + 23 (total 149)
60
Rapeseed: + 5 (total 38) 40
Sunflowerseed: + 4 (31)
20
March 6, 2019
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The information and analyses given in this service are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to
ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. We cannot, however, accept any responsibility
for them nor for the accuracy of our forecasts and opinions or any liability for the subscriber’s use. March 6, 2019
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