Plenary 2 - 6 Thomas Mielke

Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.
de POC 2019 in Kuala Lumpur on 6 March 2019
Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of

Palm & Lauric Oils and Impacts from Other Oils
Presentation at the POC 2019 in Kuala Lumpur on 6 March 2019
Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World,

Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
Feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.mielke@oilworld.de>
March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Company Profil and Services

• ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958
• ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information
• Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & fats
and oilmeals
• Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information
• Providing monthly and quarterly world supply and demand balances
• Daily, weekly and monthly publications.

• Also a Chinese report in Mandarin two times a week.
• We offer our services to you. If we can be assistance, feel free to email

Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
• Take a free 3-week trial at www.oilworld.de
March 6, 2019
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 2
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 1

Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de POC 2019 in Kuala Lumpur on 6 March 2019
Monthly Prices Crude Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US-$/T)

Monthly averages until end-Feb 2019
800
750
2016/17
700
650
600
550
500
2017/18
450
2018/19
400
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
March 6, 2019
Fundamentals Affecting Palm Oil Prices

Impacts of the USA – China Trade War
March 6, 2019

Impacts of the Trade War China - USA

Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T)
The growth trend in 100
U.S.A. China
Chinese soybean 90
EU-28 Brazil
crush will be 80 Argentina
interrupted in 70
2018/19. 60
50
40
This will have major
30
repercussions on
20
worldwide
10
- soybean crushings
0
- and on availability 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17
of soya oil and meal 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19F
October/Septem ber
March 6, 2019
Trade War Impacts on Oils & Fats

China raising imports
C H INA, P.R .: Imports of 8 Vegetable O ils (1000 T)
of soya oil, palm oil O ctober / Septem ber
and rape/canola oil 18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15
to compensate smaller Soybean oil . . . . 950* 481 711 586 773
C otton oil . . . . . . -* - - . .
domestic production Groundnut oil . . . 135* 112 111 113 141
resulting from reduced Sunflower oil . . . 855* 785 725 878 534
soybean crushings Rapeseed oil . . . 1280* 1067 802 768 732
Palm oil . . . . . . . 5840* 5422 5016 4798 5822
Palmkern oil. . . . 750* 701 595 560 578
C oconut oil . . . . 150* 140 134 136 136
Total . . . . . . . . . 9960* 8708 8094 7840 8717
March 6, 2019

In 2018/19 soya meal Soya M eal Usage in Key Regions (Mn T)

consumption in China 75
70
seen plunging by about 5- 65
E U-28
6 Mn T 60 US A
55 Ch ina
50
Imports of other oilmeals 45
40
rising (in Mn T): 35
Sun meal 0.80 (vs 0.2) 30
Rapemeal 1.50 (vs 1.25) 25
20
15
Imports of meat in 10
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Oct/Jan 1.0 Mn T (vs 0.8). 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
May rise to 3.5-4.0 Mn T October / S eptember
in 2019 (vs. 2.7 in 2018)
March 6, 2019
SOYA MEAL: World Disappearance

World production and Year-On-Year Change (Mn T)
consumption of soy meal 16
likely to only stagnate in 14
12
Oct/Sept 2018/19
10
8
An important price- 6
making factor, 4
contributing to a rising 2
soya oil share 0
-2
-4
-6
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
Oct ober /S ept em be r
March 6, 2019


Global Outlook: Soybeans - > Bearish, but soya oil - > bullish
March 6, 2019
The Global Oilseed Outlook in 2018/19

10 O ils eeds : W orld P ro d u ctio n (M n T)
Unusually strong world 38 0
demand 36 0
34 0
Soybea ns
32 0
Growing importance of 30 0
28 0
soybean worldwide and 26 0
further big growth ahead 24 0
22 0
20 0
In past 30 years world 18 0
O ther 9 oilseeds
16 0
soybean imports doubled 14 0
every 10 years 12 0
10 0
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
March 6, 2019

Outlook 2018/19: SOYBEANS

World Production of World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
Soybeans: 360
+11 Mn T 330
Stocks by 7 Mn T 300 Production
270
240
Our current soya crop 210
estimates 2018/19: 180
150
120
USA 124 (vs 120) 90
Brazil 114* (vs 121) 60 Harvested Area
30
Argent. 52* (vs 35)
0
India 10.6* (vs 8.3) 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17
World 353* (341 Mn) 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19F
March 6, 2019
S oybean S tocks, end-A ugust (M n T)

120
Record world stocks
110
at end of 2018/19 W o rld U SA
100
90
Burdensome stocks 80
of soybeans in the US 70
(26 Mn T vs 12 Mn) 60
50
Soybean futures have 40
more downward 30
potential, unless in 20
case of detrimental 10
weather 0
19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18
19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 F
March 6, 2019

CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)

1050
In my opinion,
soybean futures are still May 2019 futures
1000
overvalued 50-day moving average
950
900
850
May18 Jly Sep Nov Ja19
D aily futures from 15 M ay 2018 until 28 Feb 2 019
March 6, 2019

The Outlook for Rapeseed and Sunflowerseed
March 6, 2019

Declining trend in RAPESEED & CANOLA

rapeseed area and World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
production 70
65
Production
60
Output in Mn T:
55
EU : 19.6 (21.9) 50
Ukr: 3.0 (2.4) 45
40
Canada 20.3 (21.3) 35
China only 4.8 or less 30
Harvested Area
Australia 2.2 (3.7) 25
20
15
98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
March 6, 2019
Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)

Rape oil prices in Rott 900
Rape oil
currently at 800 US$
versus soya oil 755, sun 800
oil 700 and palm oil 540 Soya oil
700
Sun oil
600
Palm oil, crude
500
400
Ja18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja19 Feb
Daily prices from 1 Jan 2018 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019

EU-28: Rapeseed Area & Production Outlook 2019/20:

25
Production (Mn T) Area: 5.6 (vs. 6.8)

20
Crop: 18.1 (vs. 19.7)
15
Germany: 3.0 (vs. 3.7)
10 France: 4.3 (vs. 4.9)
Romania: 0.8 (vs. 1.5)
5 U.K.: 2.0 (vs. 2.0)
Area (Mn ha)
0
01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20F
March 6, 2019
7
Daily Futures of Rapeseed (Matif) &

China has cancelled
Canola (ICE) in US-$/T -- May 2019 positions
large purchases of 460
Canadian canola lately,
due to the political 440
crisis.
420
Canola futures falling 400
to new contract lows.
380
Considerably lower Rapeseed futures on the Matif
Chinese canola 360
Canola futures on the ICE
crushings will further 340
raise veg. oil imports Ja18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJa19 Feb Mar
Daily futures from 2 Jan 2018 until 4 March 2019
March 6, 2019

Considerably higher SUNFLOWERSEED

than expected crops in World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
Ukraine and Russia
52
48
Output in Mn T: Production
44
Ukraine: 15.5 (13.5) 40
Russia: 12.6 (11.0) 36
32
EU-28: 9.6 (vs. 10.0) 28
Argentina 3.7 (3.4) 24
Harvested Area
20
Production & exports of 16
sun oil set to rise by 1.1 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17
98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19F
and 0.9 Mn T in 2018/19
March 6, 2019

Booming Biodiesel Production - - But How Long?
March 6, 2019

PALM OIL: World Consumption 2018, by Category

Jan/Dec 2018 total: 70.1 Mn T
46.6 Mn (66.5%) 15.1 Mn (21.5%)
6.0 Mn (8.6%)
2.4 Mn (3.4%)
Food use Other (animal feed, etc.)

Chemicals Energy (biofuels)
March 6, 2019
Biodiesel
Biodiesel production almost trebled in the past 11 years.
Will be record high again in 2019 - - at least in Jan/June.
But the growth is set to slow from 2020 onward.
15.1 Mn T of palm oil for biofuels in 2018, even 21.5% of

world palm oil usage
(14.1 for biodiesel/HVO and 1.0 Mn T for electricity)
Driven by Indonesia,
probably 18.3 Mn T of palm oil to be used in Jan/Dec 2019
March 6, 2019

Weekly Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T)

900
800
700
600
500
400
Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
300
ICE Gas Oil (Spot)
200
Ja17 Apr Jly Oct Ja18 Apr Jly Sep Ja19
Weekly prices from January 2017 until 28 Febr 2019
March 6, 2019
BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T )

Projection J anua ry /D ecem ber
2019F 2018 2017 2016 2015 2012 2004
EU-28 . . . . . . . 13.50* 13.30* 13.55 12.68 12.37 9.66 1.88
U.S.A. . . . . . . . 7.43* 7.19 6.15 6.21 4.72 3.50 .01
Argentina. . . . . 2.20* 2.50 2.87 2.66 1.81 2.46 -
Brazil . . . . . . . . 5.17* 4.68 3.75 3.33 3.46 2.39 -
Colombia . . . . . .60* .57* .54 .51 .51 .49 -
Singapore . . . . 1.20* 1.12* 1.05 .99 .87 .73 -
Indonesia. . . . . 7.50* 5.20 2.92* 3.18* 1.22 1.91 -
Malaysia . . . . . 1.40* 1.14* .72 .51 .67 .25* -
Thailand. . . . . . 1.55* 1.42* 1.21* 1.12 1.14 .92* -
Oth. ctries. . . . . 3.52* 3.31* 3.07* 2.93* 2.83* 2.20 .15
Total . . . . . . . . 44.07* 40.43 35.83 34.11 29.60 24.51 2.04
March 6, 2019

E U -28 : T rad e o f B io d iesel ( 1000 T )

Oct/D ec J an/D ec
Im po rts: 2018 20 17 2018 20 17 2016
In Jan/Dec 2018 a sharp A rgentina . . . . . 2 36* 3 56 1468* 3 86 -
C hina, P R . . . . 40 58 254 1 96 38
increase in EU-28 net Indo nesia . . . . . 146 1 786 28 37
imports of biodiesel to a M alaysia . . . . . 60 71 435 3 87 285
record 2.5 Mn T was Oth cou ntries . . 99 47 252 1 90 174
caused by rapidly rising EU T otal . . . . . . . . 5 81* 5 33 3195* 11 87 534
biodiesel consumption. E xports:
Nor wa y . . . . . . 23 29 79 89 95
S witzerland . . . 29 21 111 84 55
U .S .A . . . . . . . . 131 70 285 70 87
P eru . . . . . . . . . 19 - 76 91 88
Oth. co untries . 28 69 121 1 70 135
T otal . . . . . . . . 230 1 89 672 5 04 460
March 6, 2019
62% of Total EU Palm Oil Usage for Energy in 2018

As much as 62% of total
Food
EU palm oil use was for 2.25 Mn T (29.8%) Livestock Feeds
0.31 Mn T (4.5%)
energy in 2018
Oleochemical
Industry
0.34 Mn T (4.1%)
EU consumption of palm
oil for food is declining
Electricity & heat
(down 0.6 Mn in 5 years) 0.91 Mn T (12.1%)
Record EU palm oil

imports for biofuels in
Jan/Dec (up 0.2-0.3 Mn) Biodiesel
3.73 Mn T (49.5%)
March 6, 2019


Challenges in the Palm Oil Industry
March 6, 2019
Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2018

in Major Countries (Mn T)
The Success Story 80
of Palm Oil in past Malaysia
70 Effects of El Nino
Indonesia
40 years 60 Rest of W orld
50
40
30
20
10
0
1982 198 6 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 200 4 200 8 2012 2016
March 6, 2019

Up almost 180%
World Production of 17 Oils & Fats
2018/19F - - 234.6 Mn T 1992/93 - - 84.6 Mn T
in past 26 years
Palm Oil 15,9%
Average annual
increase Rape Oil 10,7% Soya Oil 20,3%
Palm Oil 31,9% Soya Oil 23,9%
of 5.7 Mn T
Sun Oil 9,1%
Rape Oil 11,1%
PKO&CNO 5,5%
Palm oil Others/An.Fats 38,6%
Others/An.Fats 19,9%
account Sun Oil 8,5%
for 40% of
PKO&CNO 4,7%
the increase
Palm oil output forecast at 74.9 Mn T
in Oct/Sept 2018/19.
Only accounting for 6% of the area.
March 6, 2019
OIL PALMS and 3 OILSEEDS: World Area (Mn ha)

140
Oil Palm Mature Area
120 Soybeans
100 Rapeseed & Canola
Sunflowerseed
80
60
40
20
1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

From Jan/D ec 1976 until 2018
March 6, 2019

PALM OIL: World Consumption (Mn T)

75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2010 2014 2018
From Jan/Dec 1970 until 2018
March 6, 2019
Big Challenges Ahead for Palm Oil M AL AYS IA: A nn u al P alm O il Yield s (T/ ha)
4 ,8
4 ,6
T /ha
4 ,4
4 ,2
4
3 ,8
3 ,6
3 ,4
3 ,2
3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
In Malaysia palm oil yields are on a declining trend, due to

- Management
- Lack of replantings (only an average 90 Thd ha p.a. lately)
- Cut-back in fertilizers (when palm oil prices low)
March 6, 2019

In Malaysia the deteriorating age structure of the oil palms is one major
reason for the decline in the yields per hectare. Currently, 1.1-1.2 Mn ha
or about 20% of the oil palms in Malaysia are 20 years or older.
Malaysia: Oil Palm planted by category ( Mn ha )
Total Area in 2018: 5.85 and in 2001: 3.5 Mn ha
2018
2001
Felcra, Risda, State Agency 10%

Private estates 59%
Private estates 61%
Felda 12%
Felcra, Risda, St. Ag. 13%
Felda 18%
Smallholders 10%
Smallholders 17%
March 6, 2019
MALAYSIA: Age Profile of Oil Palms (1000 ha)

(Total Area 5738 Thd ha as of Dec 2016)
1400
The age structure in oil palms is
deteriorating 1200
1000
From now on annual replanting
800
will have to be boosted
every year to 600
>at least 250 Thd ha in Malaysia 400

>250-300 Thd ha in Indonesia 200
0
0-2years 3-5y 6-10y 11-15y 16-20y 21-25y over 25y
March 6, 2019

Growth in world production seen to slow to 2.8 Mn T in 2019.

Global production deficit in 2019, but current high stocks of
palm oil moderate the supply tightness.
P ALM OIL : World Production ( M n T )
Produ ction
201 9F 2018 2 01 7 2016 2015
In donesia 43.00* 41.26 * 37.10* 32.60 * 33.53*
Malaysia 20.10* 19.52 19.9 2 17.32 1 9.96
Thailand 2.85* 2.78 2.6 0 1.80 2.07
C&S Am . 5.14* 4.96* 4.7 7 4.09 3.86
Africa 2.76* 2.65* 2.5 6 2.46 2.40
Oth ctrs. 1.41* 1.31* 1.32* 1.19 1.15
WORLD 75.2 6 72.48 68.2 7 59.46 6 2.97
+2.8 Mn T +4.2 Mn T +8.8 Mn T
March 6, 2019

The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils.
March 6, 2019

Is the Current Strong Usage Growth Sustainable ?

17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption
Average demand growth Total Usage in Mn T
in past 5 seasons:
240
220
Total per year +7.3 Mn T 200
180
Biofuel +2.3 Mn T 160
140
Food/other +5.0 Mn T
120
100
In 2017/18 about 16% of 80
the world consumption of 60 biofuel food and other
17 oils of 225.5 Mn T was 40
used for energy 20
0
89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
March 6, 2019
Annual growth in world 17 OILS & FATS: Consumption and Changes ( Mn T)

Oc to b er/ Se p te mb er
production of 17 oils/fats Consumption Annual Change
to slow to +5.0 Mn T in 18/ 19F 17/18 16/17 18/19F 17/ 18 16/ 17
2018/19 (against 11.0 Mn EU-28 . . . 34.56* 34.04 33.43 + 0.5* +0.6 +0.6
in 2017/18). The total U.S.A. . . . 23.95* 23.50 22.37 + 0.5* +1.1 +0.6
Argentina. 3.69* 3.93 3.98 - 0.2* -0.1 +0.4
quantity produced is Brazil . . . . 10.89* 10.24 9.40 + 0.7* +0.8 +0.4
forecast at 234.6 Mn T. China, PR 38.50* 38.10 37.55 + 0.4* +0.5 +0.5
India . . . . 24.64* 24.24 23.88 + 0.4* +0.4 +0.7
Indonesia. 16.52* 13.34 11.42 + 3.2* +1.9 +0.5
But world consumption Malaysia . 5.66* 5.13 4.58 + 0.5* +0.6 +0.1
growth is forecast at 8.8 Others . . . 75.88* 72.97 70.40 + 2.9* +2.6 +2.6
Mn T in 2018/19, bringing W orld . . . 234.29* 225.49 217.01 + 8.8* +8.5 +6.7
the total to 234.3 Mn T
March 6, 2019

17 O IL S & FATS : W o rld E xp orts (M n T)

Global dependence on 60
palm oil is rising in 2019 55 S oy, R ap e , S u n O ils
4 A nim al F ats
50 P alm O il
Higher import needs of 45 9 O the r
China, India and other 40
countries in 2018/19 35
30
World exports of 17 oils 25
& fats are set to 20
increase by 4.6 Mn T 15
(against -0.1 in 17/18) 10
5
0
03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19F
March 6, 2019
4 VEGETABLE OILS : World Exports (Mn T)

Global dependence on Oct/Jan Oct / Sept
palm oil is rising in 2019 18/19 17/18 18/19F 17/18 16/17
Soybean oil . . . . . 3.48 3.05 11.03* 11.04 11.73
Palm oil . . . . . . . . 18.55 17.10 52.31* 49.47 48.91
Sunflower oil . . . . 3.74 3.39 11.02* 9.96 10.67
World exports of Rape oil . . . . . . . . 1.73 1.61 5.04* 4.95 4.56
palm oil +2.8 (vs. +0.6) Grand Total . . . . 27.50 25.15 79.40* 75.42 75.87
soya oil zero (vs. -0.7)
sun+rape oil +1.1 (-0.3)
March 6, 2019

4 VEGETABLE OILS : World Exports (Mn T)

Global dependence on Oct/Jan Oct / Sept
palm oil is rising in 2019 18/19 17/18 18/19F 17/18 16/17
Soybean oil . . . . . 3.48 3.05 11.03* 11.04 11.73
Palm oil . . . . . . . . 18.55 17.10 52.31* 49.47 48.91
Sunflower oil . . . . 3.74 3.39 11.02* 9.96 10.67
World exports of Rape oil . . . . . . . . 1.73 1.61 5.04* 4.95 4.56
palm oil +2.8 (vs. +0.6) Grand Total . . . . 27.50 25.15 79.40* 75.42 75.87
soya oil zero (vs. -0.7)
sun+rape oil +1.1 (-0.3) PALM OIL : World Exports ( Mn T )
Oct / Jan Oct / Sept
18/19 17/18 18/19F 17/18 16/17
Indonesia. . . . 10.63 9.19 29.15* 27.10 27.54
Malaysia . . . . 6.01 5.79 17.30* 16.47 16.31
Rest of world . 1.91 2.12 5.86* 5.90 5.06
Total . . . . . . . 18.55 17.10 52.31* 49.47 48.91
March 6, 2019
PALM OIL Outlook: PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a)
Slow down of the Annual Change (Mn T)
8
production growth in 7
Indonesia to 1.5-2.0 Mn 6 Production Supplies (a)
5
T in 2019 from 4.2 Mn T 4
growth in 2018. 3
2
1
0
Malaysian production -1
set to rise by 0.6 Mn T -2
-3
in 2019 to about 20.1 -4 (a) Opening stocks + production
Mn T (after a drop of -5
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
0.4 Mn T last year).
October/September
Rest of world: output

to grow by 0.3-0.4 Mn
March 6, 2019

PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a) World output to rise by
Annual Change (Mn T) 3.1-3.4 Mn T in
8
Production Supplies (a) Oct/Sept2018/19.
7
6 Consumption
5 World consumption is
4
3 forecast to increase by
2
1 6.2-6.5 Mn T in 2018/19.
0
-1
-2 Consumption growth to
-3 exceed the forecast
-4 (a) Opening stocks + production
-5 production growth.
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
October/September Palm oil stocks peaked in
Dec 2018.
March 6, 2019
8 Veg. OILS: Production & Demand

Change From Year Ago in Mn T
14
Produc tion Consumption
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
O c t ob e r / S e pt e m b e r
March 6, 2019


The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils
Price Outlook
March 6, 2019
Daily Prices of Crude Soya Oil & Palm Oil (US-$/T)

Palm oil under pressure in 750
2018 owing to
- higher production 700
- declining world imports
650
-huge stocks
600
Soya oil, fob Arg.
Indonesian palm oil prices
550 Palm oil, crude, fob Indo.
fell to a 12-year low of
US-$ 430 early Dec 2018 500
Currently close to $ 500 450
400
Upward potential of prices Oct18 Nov Dec Jan19 Feb
to 580-600 in next 6 months Daily prices from 1 Oct 2018 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019

Palm oil futures on the BMD Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T

2700
currently undervalued.
Price recovery likely in next 4-6 2600
months to 2350-2450. 2500
Upside is limited by high PO stocks 2400
2300
Swing factors to watch:
2200
- Actual palm oil output
- Import purchases 2100
- US – China Trade war 2000
- Energy demand (key Indonesia)
- Crude mineral oil prices 1900
Ja18 Mar May Jly Sep Dec Ja19
- Weather Prices from Jan 2018 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019
D aily P rices of C rude S oya O il & P alm Oil (U S-$/T)

The palm oil price 850
discounts to soya oil will
800
probably narrow
750
Also soya oil prices are 700

set to move higher 650
600
Forecast (assuming 550 Soya o il, fo b Arg .
Palm oil, cru de , fo b In do .
normal weather): 500
Arg soya oil (fob) to rise
450
to a high of US-$ 710-
400
740 in next 6 months
Ja17 Apr Jly Sep Ja 18 Apr Jly Sep Ja19
D aily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 28 Feb 2019
March 6, 2019

Lauric oil prices are close Daily Prices of 3 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
to their bottom. 1700 Coconut oil,Phil/Indo,cif Rott
1600 Palmkern oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rott.
Swing factors to watch: 1500 Palm oil crude, cif N.W. Eur
- weather /typhons 1400
- biological yield cycle 1300
1200
- response food industry - 1100
biodiesel Philippines 1000
- Market sentiment 900
800
In Rott the lows near term: 700
PKO $ 600 and CNO 640, 600
followed by recovery 500
400
Sep Oct Nov DecJa18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja19 Feb
CNO premium to widen Daily prices from 1 Sept 2017 until 28 Feb 2019
next 12 months
March 6, 2019

The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils.
Price Outlook.
Longer Term Outlook for Palm oil and Impacts
March 6, 2019

Yield increases in the past 15 years:

Palm Oil Losing Competitiveness Soybeans +18%
Rapeseed +26%
MALAYSIA: A nnual Palm Oil Yields (T/ ha) Sunflowerseed +53%
4,8
SOYBEAN, RAPESEED & SUNFLOW ERSEED
4,6 Yiel ds in key coun tr ies in T / h a
T/ha
4,4 3,4
4,2 3,2
3 Soyb eans
4 2,8
3,8 2,6
2,4
3,6
2,2
3,4 2
3,2 1,8
1,6 Rapeseed
3 1,4
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Sunflowerseed
1,2
1
94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 13/14 17/18F
March 6, 2019
Growth in World Palm Oil Output will slow down in years ahead
World palm oil production growth is set
MALAYSIA: A nnual Palm Oil Yields (T/ ha) to slow down to +2.0 Mn T per annum in
4,8
2018-2025,
4,6
T/ha
4,4
and to +1.7 Mn T per annum in 2025-2030
4,2
4
compared to a growth of
3,8
+3.0 Mn T p.a. 2005-2018
3,6
3,4
3,2
World production only 95 Mn T in 2030
3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Effects on prices. And on consumption
Will biodiesel become a luxery in 2030 ?
March 6, 2019

The acreage growth from OIL PALMS and 3 OILSEEDS: World Area (Mn ha)
2018 until 2030 is forecast in 140
Oil Palm Mature Area
Mn ha: 120 Soybeans
100 Rapeseed & Canola
Palm oil: + 5 (total area 25.5)
Sunflowerseed
80
Soybeans: + 23 (total 149)
60
Rapeseed: + 5 (total 38) 40
Sunflowerseed: + 4 (31)
20
1976 1982 19 88 1994 20 00 20 06 2012 20 18

From Jan/D ec 1976 un til 20 18
March 6, 2019
Thank You for Your Attention!

More market info required? Just get in touch with me:
Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
fon +49 40 761 05021
OIL WORLD market information is available daily,

weekly and monthly
© Copyright 2019 ISTA Mielke GmbH.
This information is destined for internal use only. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of
the proprietary content without the prior written consent of ISTA Mielke GmbH is prohibited.
The information and analyses given in this service are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to
ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. We cannot, however, accept any responsibility
for them nor for the accuracy of our forecasts and opinions or any liability for the subscriber’s use. March 6, 2019
Kindly
Your visit us on www.oilworld.de
Information For further information
Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, you may call +49 -40
Authoritative 76105010
- Since 1958

Plenary 2 - 6 Thomas Mielke

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Оригинальное название

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Plenary 2 - 6 Thomas Mielke

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.

de POC 2019 in Kuala Lumpur on 6 March 2019

Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of

Presentation at the POC 2019 in Kuala Lumpur on 6 March 2019

Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World,

Feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.mielke@oilworld.de>

Company Profil and Services

• Daily, weekly and monthly publications.

• We offer our services to you. If we can be assistance, feel free to email

• Take a free 3-week trial at www.oilworld.de

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 1

Monthly Prices Crude Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US-$/T)

Fundamentals Affecting Palm Oil Prices

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 2

Impacts of the Trade War China - USA

Trade War Impacts on Oils & Fats

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 3

In 2018/19 soya meal Soya M eal Usage in Key Regions (Mn T)

SOYA MEAL: World Disappearance

Oct ober /S ept em be r

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 4

Fundamentals Affecting Palm Oil Prices

The Global Oilseed Outlook in 2018/19

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 5

Outlook 2018/19: SOYBEANS

S oybean S tocks, end-A ugust (M n T)

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 6

CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)

Fundamentals Affecting Palm Oil Prices

The Outlook for Rapeseed and Sunflowerseed

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 7

Declining trend in RAPESEED & CANOLA

Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 8

EU-28: Rapeseed Area & Production Outlook 2019/20:

Production (Mn T) Area: 5.6 (vs. 6.8)

Daily Futures of Rapeseed (Matif) &

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 9

Considerably higher SUNFLOWERSEED

Fundamentals Affecting Palm Oil Prices

The Outlook for Rapeseed and Sunflowerseed

Booming Biodiesel Production - - But How Long?

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 10

PALM OIL: World Consumption 2018, by Category

46.6 Mn (66.5%) 15.1 Mn (21.5%)

Food use Other (animal feed, etc.)

15.1 Mn T of palm oil for biofuels in 2018, even 21.5% of

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 11

Weekly Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T)

BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T )

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 12

E U -28 : T rad e o f B io d iesel ( 1000 T )

62% of Total EU Palm Oil Usage for Energy in 2018

Record EU palm oil

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 13

Fundamentals Affecting Palm Oil Prices

Booming Biodiesel Production - - But How Long?

Challenges in the Palm Oil Industry

Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2018

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 14

OIL PALMS and 3 OILSEEDS: World Area (Mn ha)

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 15